NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)

NFL Picks (2014): 89-82-6 (+$145)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 24, 5:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (0-10)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chiefs -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -9.5.
Thursday, Nov. 20, 8:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

WEEK 11 RECAP: I haven’t been able to profit much this year because outside of my Picks of the Month, my top plays have mostly been losers. I’ve done well with my two- and three-unit wagers to keep myself afloat.

Week 11 was the exact opposite. I won both of my five-unit selections (Chiefs PK, Cardinals PK), but I lost all but one of my mid-range picks (Packers -4.5). This season hasn’t been bad, but it’s definitely been a bit frustrating.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Jamaal Charles ran all over the Seahawks, as the Chiefs’ forceful offensive line pushed the Seattle front around all afternoon. The Raiders are ranked worse statistically than the Seahawks are in terms of stopping ground attacks, as they’ve given up triple digits to backs to all but one team since Week 4.

Charles’ ability to break big gains will open up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Alex Smith, who won’t be under siege as much as Philip Rivers was last week. The Raiders got to Rivers behind San Diego’s decrepit offensive line. The Chiefs don’t pass protect very well either, but the threat of Charles will nullify the Raiders’ rush a bit.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders, meanwhile, won’t run the ball nearly as well. Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew have shown nothing this season. Latavius Murray could be Oakland’s best back, but I doubt he’s much of an upgrade. Regardless, he won’t pummel the Chiefs like Marshawn Lynch did last week. He could have some mild success, but who’s to say he’ll even get the appropriate amount of touches?

If Derek Carr is stuck in long-yardage situations, forget about it. Carr has had a few bright moments this year, but he hasn’t shown much against elite competition. The Chiefs bring an explosive pass rush – they’re tied for the third-most sacks in the NFL – so Carr will once again have to resort to tossing short passes to avoid getting sacked. This sort of offense doesn’t produce much of an output – especially against elite competition – as any sort of negative play means that points won’t be scored.

RECAP: This is the worst spot of the year for the Chiefs. They’re coming off a big victory against the Seahawks, and they have to take on the Broncos next week. Having said that, I’m still picking them, as this spread isn’t high enough. I have it calculated at Kansas City -9.5. Also, the Raiders are one of those divisional home underdogs on national TV I discuss in the next capsule, so it’s not like this is a great spot for them either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The spot says the Raiders will cover. The Chiefs are in a very tough sandwich situation, coming off a win against the Seahawks and taking on Denver next. Winless teams are also awesome against the spread in certain situations. However, this spread is not nearly high enough, as it appears as though the number has been adjusted for the bad spot. I’m picking the Chiefs, but I definitely have no interest in betting this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Raiders are desperate for a win. The Chiefs just had a big win over Seattle, and they have the Broncos next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

All of the money is predictably on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 79% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Road Team has won 12 of the last 15 meetings (Raiders 9 of the last 14 meetings).

Andy Reid is 11-5 ATS on the West Coast.

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 13
Chiefs -7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 24, Chiefs 20

Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -1.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Browns.

WEEK 12 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve identified poisonous teams that I would never bet on to save me from some bad picks. Here’s the list. It’s the same as last week with one change:

Poisonous Teams:
Raiders
Jaguars
Titans
Buccaneers (home only)

I’ve removed the Rams, as they finally appear to have gotten over their issues with some semi-decent quarterbacking for a change.

Nine weeks ago, I discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. That dynamic was 20-13 against the spread since Week 2 entering last weekend. Here’s how it fared in Week 11:

Before Week 10	After Week 10	ATS Result
Seahawks -2.5	Seahawks +1.5	No cover
Rams +7.5	Rams +9.5	Cover
Bengals +5	Bengals +7	Cover

It was 2-1, and I even expressed skepticism about the Seahawks-Chiefs movement. This dynamic is now a solid 22-14 ATS on the season. Here are this week’s value lines (movements of two or more without serious injuries):

Before Week 11	After Week 11
Vikings +7	Vikings +10
Saints -6	Saints -4

Only two games apply this week so far. The Vikings moving from +7 to +10 is no surprise, given Green Bay’s impressive showing against the Eagles. The Saints dropping a couple of points also was predictable in the wake of their embarrassing loss to the Bengals.

I should note that the Broncos went from -9 to -7, but my rule is to exclude shifts where injuries factor into it. Denver could be without Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas, which would explain the spread dropping.

DIVISIONAL HOME UNDERDOGS IN NIGHT GAMES: The sharps have been awful this year. I think the picks Chad Millman reveals amid the porno music on Colin Cowherd’s show are 14 games below .500. There are a couple of prominent reasons for this:

First, the sharps have continuously gotten burned by poisonous teams. They seemingly take the Raiders, Jaguars, Rams, etc. every week, and they’ve lost with those most of the time. Betting on horrible teams used to be fine, but that was before this new CBA. With less practice time, the awful teams are even worse than usual because they can’t get coached up very much, yet the sharps haven’t realized this fact.

Second, “sharp” things sometimes don’t work. If I were to ask you whether divisional home underdogs in nationally televised games (Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night) do well, what would you guess? The “sharp” in you might think, Probably well because there’s good line value with divisional home underdogs, especially with the public betting the favorite.

That would be 100-percent incorrect. Here’s a crazy fact: Excluding December games, no divisional home underdog has covered a nationally televised game since Oct. 4, 2012! Teams in this dynamic are an embarrassing 0-13-1 since that point, with the lone push being in a Week 11, 2012 battle between the Steelers and Ravens, where the Steelers lost by a field goal as three-point dogs.

Since 1989, divisional home underdogs in night games are 30-58 against the spread. They are 0-3 this year, with the Texans (vs. Colts, Week 6); Rams (vs. 49ers, Week 6) and Panthers (vs. Saints, Week 9) all failing to cover.

I bring this up now because there are two teams in this situation in Week 12, as the Raiders host the Chiefs and the Giants battle the Cowboys. The sharps might be all over the Raiders and Giants, but they’d once again be betting into a losing proposition.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Josh Gordon makes his return. If you’re going against him in fantasy this week, you have to be pissed that you’re the one who has to face him after his owner stashed him on the bench all season. That’s how the Falcons must feel, especially after losing a starting cornerback to injury last week.

It goes without saying that Gordon will completely open up Cleveland’s offense. With Jordan Cameron being out, all Brian Hoyer has had to throw to has been Andrew Hawkins. He has relied on the likes of Taylor Gabriel, Miles Austin and Travis Benjamin, but that will no longer be the case with Gordon on the field. He’s one of the most physically gifted receivers in the NFL, and the Falcons will have to devote so much attention to him that they won’t be able to focus on the other aspects of Cleveland’s offense.

That’s exactly why the Browns may have success running the ball in this contest. They’ve struggled to move the chains on the ground for the most part ever since losing Alex Mack, but Gordon will push the defenders away from the line of scrimmage, which should open things up for Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons, meanwhile, won’t be able to run the ball well. Steven Jackson had a dream matchup at Carolina last week – recall what Mark Ingram did to the Panthers – and yet he mustered just 41 yards on 17 carries. I have no idea what Mike Smith was thinking by not turning to Devonta Freeman or Antone Smith, but now the latter is not a possibility because he’s out for the year.

The Falcons will at least be able to move the chains aerially. Pass protecting has been a big issue for them, but that won’t be the case in this matchup, given that the Browns lost one of their top pass-rushers, Jabaal Sheard, to injury. Paul Kruger is the only decent rusher they have left, and I’m sure Atlanta can figure out how to stop one guy, who isn’t even really that dominant.

With time in the pocket, Ryan should be able to have success against a defense that also lost its best player. Karlos Dansby will be missing as well, and his absence will really hurt the team. The Browns still have good players in their secondary, so I wouldn’t expect Ryan to dominate, but he has to love the fact that he won’t be going up against one of the league’s top inside linebackers.

RECAP: The Falcons are not in a good spot, as they have the Cardinals and Packers after this game. Home favorites off close, divisional wins haven’t done all that well, anyway. Besides, this spread is too high. This says that the Falcons and Browns are even, and that’s definitely not the case. Cleveland went into Cincinnati and won, and it also crushed the Steelers. What has Atlanta done besides beat the Panthers, Buccaneers (twice) and Saints at home, thanks to a Marques Colston fumble in overtime?

I have this as Atlanta -1, so we’re getting two points of value with the Browns, which is a big deal in this case because we’ve crossed the key number of three.

Again, Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Browns. The sharps aren’t taking anyone. Perhaps they should be, as the Falcons are overrated. Did you know that they didn’t even outgain the Panthers last week?

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s been a bit of sharp money coming in on the Browns this morning, but nothing substantial.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Falcons haven’t been home since Week 6, so there might be distractions. Also, they’re coming off two divisional wins, and they have the 9-1 Cardinals and Packers after this game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 54% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 29-19 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Browns 27, Falcons 24
Browns +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 26, Falcons 24

Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
Line: Eagles by 11.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -11.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -12.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

VEGAS UPDATE: Vegas had its worst Sunday of the season in Week 10, so it had to win some of its money back. It did so, but Week 11 wasn’t very fruitful as the house would’ve liked. That’s because it lost money when the 49ers, Packers and Patriots all covered. The books at least won with the Saints, Rams, and especially the Titans on Monday night. That helped turn this past weekend into a winner. I thought some of the oddsmakers would have to disappear into the desert if they had another disastrous week, but they’re safe… for now.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I guess we can confirm now that Mark Sanchez isn’t the second coming of Johnny Unitas. Sanchez had a solid debut against the Panthers – albeit with some errant throws – but he self-destructed at Green Bay. He was responsible for numerous turnovers, and he simply couldn’t keep drives alive.

That, however, was in Lambeau against an elite team. The Titans are on the opposite end of the spectrum, as their defense has been atrocious this season. Le’Veon Bell was able to burst for 6.2 yards per carry on a 200-yard night, and this was nothing new, as Tennessee is just 29th against ground attacks (4.53 YPC). LeSean McCoy has struggled this year because he’s dancing around and looking for holes that aren’t there, but he could even have success against this defense.

The one thing the Titans do well is get to the quarterback – they’re tied for sixth with 29 sacks – which ordinarily would be bad news for Mark Sanchez, who was smacked around last week. However, the Titans’ secondary is so bad that it won’t matter much. Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Matthews will be able to get open quite frequently, so Philadelphia will be able to score enough points to win and perhaps cover.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Can Zach Mettenberger keep up with the Eagles? He definitely showed the possibility of doing so Monday night. He began with a brutal pick-six, but was otherwise solid for most of the night. Keep in mind, however, that he was battling a Pittsburgh defense missing five starters, including Troy Polamalu and Ryan Shazier.

The Steelers failed to register a single sack Monday night, but Mettenberger’s pocket won’t be clean this Sunday. That’s because the Eagles bring a fierce pass rush that happens to have the second-most sacks in the NFL (33). With Mettenberger constantly being under siege, he could be forced into some poor throws.

The one glimmer of hope for Mettenberger is that he’ll have Delanie Walker back from injury. Walker is Mettenberger’s most-reliable weapon, and he has been out since the midway point of the Baltimore game. Unfortunately for the Titans, the Eagles play tight ends extremely well; they’ve surrendered just one touchdown to tight ends all year.

RECAP: I have no interest in betting this game. The Eagles are the better team, and they’re not favored by enough – I have this calculated as a 12-point spread – but they play against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in just four days, so they may not be focused. This is one of the toughest calls of the week for me. I’m taking the Eagles for now, but I may decide to change my mind later in the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, I have no idea where to go with this game. I thought about changing my pick, but then I recalled that even though the Titans covered against the Steelers, they were outplayed by a wide margin. They are a miserable team that isn’t competitive most of the time.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman told Colin Cowherd amid the porno music that the sharps are taking the Titans. Perhaps they did earlier in the week, but they jumped on the Eagles on Sunday morning. This spread is available at +12 on BetUS if you like Tennessee.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Eagles have the Cowboys in just four days.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 52% (26,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Eagles are 12-27 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -11.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Titans 13
Eagles -11.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 43, Titans 24

Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2)
Line: Patriots by 7.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -8.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

This is the NFL, bad calls happen in every game. Own your losses you have nobody to blame but yourself. You too walt, no one on here mentions when they get a bad call in their favor so shut it .

If I own up to my bad picks, will you own up to your bad posts? Because this one was awful. If you were to tell me the Dolphins would get 9 free points from the refs in a close, defensive game, I wouldn’t have bet Buffalo.

Walt is coming up with his excuses for the Saints already. Here Walt: Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost, Almost. If AJ Green doesn’t catch those 4 passes, they miss that FG, and Gresham doesn’t catch that TD, then the Saints are undefeated. The Saints are only 10 plays away from being undefeated, they are a great team. Oh and, SHARPZZZ. See how stupid you sound Walt?

I think you’re five intelligent quips away from being a good commenter. Keep putting forth an A+ effort, and you may take the Saints’ spot in my top 10 soon enough!

I can already see Walt trying to justify the Saints loss to CIN. They were a Jermaine Gresham FR, a 4th & Goal, and a few A.J. Green miracles catches from winning. They’re also in the top 10 in overall efficiency.

Don’t forget the fact that God had 4 units on the Bengals.

the saints are a top 10 team cuz walt like the shape of mr brees’s @#$@. oh and those super intelligent sharps said so. good job buddy. do what you have to do to make yourself feal better now you @#$@ing monkey.

Uhh… It’s Mr. “Brees’ @#$@.” Get your grammar correct. But yes, I do enjoy the shape very much.

It makes sense to Walt because his website is public and these “sharps”, he is trying to impress them because he thinks they read his site. Walt is a very insecure person. It’s basic tribe psychology – Walt wants in their little group, so he trys to align his thinking with them. His only defense of his Saints ranking is “well person X is also doing it”. Deep down Walter realizes how weak this sounds, so he makes up all his “they almost” excuses. Walt is the Theon Greyjoy of the NFL gambling world.

Calling me Theon Greyjoy of the gambling world is very accurate. I used to have large manhood, but it was sliced off while trying to avenge my childhood captors. I faded childhood captors and bet Iron Islands +6, like the sharps did, but I lost, and didn’t have money to pay my bookie, so I paid the Iron Price.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots now have a rushing attack. Every team in the NFL has to be thrilled about that. Jonas Gray rushed for 201 yards and four touchdowns on the Colts, leaving many defensive coordinators wondering how in the world they can stop New England’s offense.

The Lions at least won’t have to worry about Gray trampling them. Whereas the Colts are 26th against the run in terms of YPC, Detroit is at the very top of the charts in that category. The Lions also get plenty of pressure on the quarterback with Ndamukong Suh and Ziggy Ansah. Signal-callers hate going against teams with four-man rushes that can consistently apply pressure without help from blitzes. Tom Brady has been protected well recently, but Detroit will be able to get to him.

Having said that, how are the Lions going to deal with Rob Gronkowski and Brady’s other weapons? Gronkowski, when healthy, is an unstoppable force. Detroit is slightly above average in its ability to defend tight ends, but it won’t have a solution for Gronk.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford has to love having Calvin Johnson back, but his All-Pro wideout has a tough matchup for the third week in a row. Megatron has dealt with Brent Grimes and Patrick Peterson since his return, and now he gets an even tougher battle against Darrelle Revis.

Johnson won’t be the only Detroit wideout who will struggle to get open. Golden Tate, who had to take on Antonio Cromartie last week, will now have the misfortune of being covered by Brandon Browner. We saw what happened to Detroit’s offense when Stafford didn’t have his top two wideouts available. Stafford also dealt with an immense amount of pressure at Arizona, and the Patriots can also bring the heat with blitzes, thanks to their two stud corners.

If the Patriots have a weakness, it’s that they can be run on. Trent Richardson couldn’t expose this liability like Jamaal Charles did in New England’s previous loss. Joique Bell will have a better chance than Richardson, but I don’t like his chances very much.

RECAP: This spread is a bit short, but we’re not really getting line value with either side. The Lions, however, are in a tremendous spot. They’re playing as underdogs in their second-consecutive road game, which is typically a great situation for teams. The Patriots, meanwhile, have to take on the Packers next week in a possible Super Bowl preview, so they’ll be looking ahead to that.

Given those two items, as well as the fact that all of the money pouring in on the Patriots, I like the Lions enough to take them for two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m sticking with the Lions. There’s loads of money on New England, yet the sharps haven’t touched this game yet. With the Chiefs losing Thursday night, this game is essentially meaningless, as the Patriots are effectively two up on everyone for the No. 1 seed in the conference.

SUNDAY NOTES: Bovada has the Lions available at +7.5 if you like them. It’s +7 almost everywhere else. I still like Detroit.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The Patriots have the Packers next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

No surprise that the public is backing the Patriots again.

Percentage of money on New England: 78% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Lions are 4-11 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Lions are 1-8 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Tom Brady is 168-56 as a starter (128-91 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Patriots 24, Lions 21
Lions +7.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 34, Lions 9

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
Line: Packers by 9. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -6.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Packers.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

Also, you can make your own NFL Power Rankings here.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Can Aaron Rodgers be stopped? He has completely abused the Bears and Eagles in his previous two games, posting 50-plus points in each contest. The Vikings definitely don’t have a chance, considering what Jay Cutler just did to them, right?

Well, the one thing the Vikings have going for them is their pass rush. They’re tied for third in the NFL in sacks (30). So, if they can actually put some heat on Rodgers, they’ll be able to actually force some punts – something Philadelphia and Chicago could barely do. The problem is that the Packers seemed to have figured things out up front after struggling in that regard earlier in the year. They’ve given up just one sack in the two games since their bye, so that bodes well for them in this matchup.

The Packers have also run the ball well with Eddie Lacy of late, so they could beat the Vikings that way as well. Minnesota is just 28th against ground attacks, as it has surrendered 98 rushing yards to all but one team since Week 2.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It’s clear that the Vikings will need to score some points to keep up with the Packers. That almost seems impossible, given that they’ve struggled to pass protect this year. They’ve allowed the fourth-most sacks in the NFL (32), and that would be an even higher figure if Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t tossed so many checkdowns.

The Packers, meanwhile, have gotten lots of pressure on the quarterback lately, as they’ve figured out how to get Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers and Nick Perry on the field at the same time. The results have shown it, as they’ve registered seven sacks in the two weeks since their bye. This means there will be more checkdowns coming from Bridgewater, which just isn’t a winning formula against an elite team.

The Vikings will need to run the ball well, and they could have some success in that regard, as the Packers are just 19th against ground attacks. Unfortunately, Minnesota may not be able to get a chance to establish Jerick McKinnon, given that Green Bay could jump out to a double-digit lead in the blink of an eye.

RECAP: If I’ve made it sound like the Packers are vastly superior, that’s because, well, they are. However, the spread is way too high. Vegas knows that everyone is going to be betting Green Bay, so they had to massively inflate this line. I think it should be Packers -6, so we’re getting four points of value, which is huge.

Four other reasons to like the Vikings: First, we’re also getting value on the advanced spread; Green Bay was -7 a week ago, and a field goal is still pretty significant. Second, the Packers have to play the Patriots next week in a potential Super Bowl preview. Third, this is Minnesota’s Super Bowl. The Vikings will be trying way harder than Green Bay. And fourth, Rodgers is just 4-7 against the spread as a road favorite of 6.5 or more. This just isn’t the typical situation he covers.

Having said that, I can only take the Vikings for one unit, as I have no desire to bet tons of money and get in the way of the Rodgers freight train.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have begun pounding the Vikings, which would explain the line movement. It’s going to keep dropping, so I’ll lock in two units – I’m adding one – at +9. Check out this trend: Teams that have won two straight games by 25-plus are 15-34 against the spread.

SUNDAY NOTES: This is another game in which Bovada has a better spread; it’s +9 on their site despite being +7.5 everywhere else. The professional bettors continue to pound Minnesota.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Packers could be looking ahead to New England next week. This is Minnesota’s Super Bowl.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

So much money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 87% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings (excluding 2013 tie).

Packers are 35-16 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 54-31 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 4-7 ATS on the road as a 6.5 favorite or more.

Opening Line: Packers -10.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Packers 33, Vikings 27
Vikings +9 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 24, Vikings 21

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3)
Line: Colts by 13.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -13.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -14.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Colts.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I think I might make crappy fantasy trades a weekly staple of my NFL Picks page. That’s because I keep getting dumb offers every single week. Here’s one:

We get: Justin Hunter, Bishop Sankey and Josh McCown. We trade: Calvin Johnson, Brock Osweiler and Dexter McCluster.

This is a keeper league, so Hunter and Sankey aren’t entirely useless, but why would we trade the best receiver in fantasy for three pedestrian players who have shown no signs that they’ll be reliable starters? And why would we give away Brock Osweiler, who could be a starting NFL quarterback down the road, for Josh McCown?

That wasn’t the worst deal of the week. Check this out:

We get: Eli Manning. We trade: T.Y. Hilton.

Uhh… what!? A young, top receiver for a declining quarterback? Why? It’s not even like Manning would be an upgrade for us at quarterback, since our starter is Robert Griffin. I declined and replied with the following:

What the hell are you possibly thinking by offering this trade?

No response yet, unfortunately.

2. Dumb trades are occurring in that league all the time. For instance, someone traded Jordan Reed for the Browns’ defense. That’s right – rather than pick up a defense on the waiver wire, some clown decided that he needed to acquire Cleveland for a potential TE1.

Check out this other deal:

Team A gets: A.J. Green, Rams Defense. Team B gets: Matt Ryan, Markus Wheaton, Seahawks Defense.

Why do these idiots trade defenses? This effectively boils down to A.J. Green for Matt Ryan, since the defenses nullify, while Markus Wheaton isn’t much of a fantasy player. I’m beginning to think I need to start offering some crappy fantasy trades of my own to take advantage of some of these idiots.

3. I need to discuss that NFL Shop commercial. You know the one I’m talking about – where the older lady talks about her “Vikings’ family,” and how her kids married/moved and became fans of other teams. Here it is if you haven’t seen it:

What the hell is a “whole, entire family?” Why not “whole family,” or “entire family?”

The main issue I have with this commercial is that her daughter Julie became a fan of the Cowboys just because she met Emmitt Smith. The thing is, Emmitt doesn’t play for the Cowboys anymore, so why would she like them? And what the hell did Emmitt do to make her like Dallas? He was either the nicest person of all time to her and gave her money so that her mom could afford the absurdly high prices on NFL Shop, or Emmitt made sweet, passionate love to her.

One commenter on the YouTube page had similar thoughts:

“So did the one daughter bang it out with Emmett (sic)? How does just meeting someone make you a fan? Methinks 22 gave her the good D and THAT is what she’s a fan of.”

My thoughts exactly.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Poor Jaguars. They don’t stand a chance. Andrew Luck is pissed. He’s coming off a loss, and that’s when he’s at his best. He’ll make Jacksonville pay.

In the previous four meetings against the Jaguars, Luck has scored 27, 37, 30 and 44 points. It’s safe to say he has their number, and how could he not? Jacksonville is a terrible team that has a putrid defense. The only positive aspect for the Jaguars’ “stop” unit is their front line, and that unit won’t be much of a problem for Luck, who can just scramble out of trouble and find open receivers downfield.

The Jaguars will, at least, be able to stop the run. They’re only 21st against the rush, but Trent Richardson is an abomination. Losing Ahmad Bradshaw will be a big blow for the Colts – but not in this game.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Colts probably wish they would’ve traded their first-round pick for Jonas Gray instead of Richardson at this point, as Gray rumbled for 201 yards against them on Sunday night. Logic states that if Indianapolis couldn’t contain Gray, it won’t be able to stop Denard Robinson, who has run well since taking over as the starter for the plodding Toby Gerhart.

However, there are two things going against Robinson. First, if Luck lights up the scoreboard, as expected, Robinson may not be given too many carries. And second, the Colts won’t be super scared of Blake Bortles like they were of Tom Brady, so they’ll be able to focus more on containing the rush.

Speaking of Bortles, he’s physically talented, but he’s been a turnover machine lately. Perhaps the return of Marcedes Lewis will help, but I can’t trust him against a defense that will be able to take his top weapon away with Vontae Davis.

RECAP: The Colts are the play here for a few units. Luck is dominant off a loss (11-1 ATS), and he’s superb at home (16-6 ATS). He also crushes the Jaguars; in his previous four meetings against them, he has beaten them by the following margins: 17, 34, 20, 27. With the Colts having an easy, non-divisional game on the horizon (home vs. Redskins), they can fully concentrate on getting back to form by slaughtering Jacksonville.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Colts. Andrew Luck has covered 10 in a row against divisional opponents.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s some sharp money on the Jaguars, but as discussed, this is the type of game they’ve lost money on this year. The terrible teams have been even worse in the new CBA, and the “wise guys” somehow haven’t caught on.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 78% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: 17 of the last 25 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 4-0 SU last 4).

Andrew Luck is 11-1 ATS off a loss.

Andrew Luck is 16-6 ATS at home.

Andrew Luck is 12-3 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Colts -13.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Colts 38, Jaguars 17
Colts -13.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 23, Jaguars 3

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5)
Line: Texans by 2.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Texans -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -3.5.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Texans.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I was glad when I saw that the playoff committee ranked Florida State No. 3 this week. I feel like the dumb, ESPN-type thinking is that Florida State should be No. 1 now because they were unbeaten. Bravo to the committee members for not just doing the derp thing like looking at records like a few of the commenters on my NFL Power Rankings page.

My only beef with the rankings was that Alabama wasn’t in the top four a week ago. That’s not a problem now, but Vegas always considered the Tide to be the No. 1 team in the country. Alabama deserves to be No. 1 now; not Florida State. The Seminoles aren’t even close, as they’ve had short, garbage wins over pedestrian opponents. I’m not impressed at all.

2. Speaking of Florida State, news broke that Jameis Winston point shaved against Louisville to help his friend from UAB win a $5,000. TMZ broke this story, but it was quickly swept under the rug by the NCAA, who didn’t want the public to know that there are fix games when, in fact, there are multiple fixed games every single week, per a former mobster Jim Rome interviewed on his show about a decade ago.

Point shaving occurs all the time in football. It happens in the NFL, and it’s more prevalent in college sports. They didn’t call Bruce Gradkowski the “Polish Point Shaver” for nothing.

I’d trust this story because TMZ broke it. TMZ is a dumb news outlet that reports on stories no one cares about (“OMG Selina Gomez was wearing sweatpants to the supermarket lololololololololol!!!!”) but they’re mostly accurate. If they say Winston point shaved, then he point shaved. I hope his UAB friend bought some cool stuff with his five grand, including some crab legs as a gift for Jameis.

3. I need to say something concerning the NBA. I live right outside of Philly, so I hear promos for Sixers games during commercials. This one made me spit out my food:

“Can Nerles Noel take down this rising Rockets’ team!?”

Uhh… the Rockets from the NBA? Or some local team from the suburbs coincidentally named the Rockets? Houston is one of the best teams in the league, while the Sixers, who haven’t won a single game yet, lost to the Mavericks by more than 50 points! How in hell were they going to take down the Rockets? Granted, the game ended up being close, but this commercial bordered on false advertising. The Sixers aren’t winning many games this year, so they certainly aren’t going to beat one of the NBA’s best squads.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton had one of the worst quarterbacking performances in NFL history a couple of Thursday nights ago, but he saved his job by turning things around and playing well last week. However, that was against the Saints, who barely had their top corner, so Dalton had a pretty easy matchup.

Things will be more difficult in this contest, as Dalton will be battling a defense that limited Brian Hoyer – the better signal-caller in that Thursday night affair – to a completion percentage of just 40. The Texans’ overall defensive numbers aren’t that great, but they’ll improve in the coming weeks because Jadeveon Clowney is back in the lineup. It’s no coincidence that the stop unit had one of its best performances of the season this past Sunday. Clowney, who was on the field for about half the snaps, got some pressure on the quarterback, so the Browns couldn’t fully focus on J.J. Watt, who dominated the game.

Besides, the Texans have had Dalton’s number over the past few seasons; he’s 0-3 against them, scoring 19, 10 and 13 in the three meetings. Dalton isn’t as good on the road, so he’ll probably continue to struggle.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans actually have some life with Ryan Mallett. He’s not a smart quarterback, and teams will be able to take advantage of him once they have plenty of film, but he’s a definite upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick for now.

Mallett should once again have a solid outing, as he’ll be playing yet another defense that can’t rush the passer. The Browns couldn’t get to him in the wake of losing Jabaal Sheard, and Cincinnati will fail to do so, as the team has just 13 sacks on the year. The Bengals also have some issues in the secondary, so Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins won’t have much trouble getting open.

The worst aspect of Cincinnati’s defense is its inability to stop the run. The Bengals are 24th against ground attacks (4.37 YPC), as a disappointing defensive line and an injured Vontaze Burfict have contributed to that ranking. Arian Foster missed last week’s action, but he’ll be back to take advantage of this great matchup.

RECAP: I think the Texans will continue their mastery of Dalton. I have no statistical data to back this pick up, outside of the fact that this spread is skewed; I have Houston at -3.5, so we’re getting two points of value while crossing over the key number of three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Arian Foster is expected to be out. I thought about moving the Texans up to two units, but I wanted Foster back. Alfred Blue should still be able to get the job done against a poor Cincinnati defense, but he’s a clear downgrade.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps have jumped on the Texans this morning, betting this up to -2.5 or -3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Bengals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 58% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 25-15 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Texans -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Bengals 16
Texans -2.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 22, Texans 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6)
Line: Bears by 5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bears -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -4.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: So you’ve seen Too Many Cooks, right? If not, you’re in for a treat:

Since many of you have seen this already, I’ll provide my thoughts as well:

1. This show is genius. Long credit rolls have been done before, but the first twist (the killer going on a rampage), and the second twist (the outer space portion) were brilliant. There’s also so much going on that you don’t see at first glance. Did you notice that the killer is in many of the earlier scenes? For instance, he’s watching he family from the staircase at the 30-second mark, and he’s hiding behind the cubicle at 2:04. Perhaps the most disturbing instance is when he’s swaying behind the little girl at the 22-second mark. Why the hell would they put him there? So weird.

2. Holy balls, Kayte Giralt (the chick at the 27-second mark) is unbelievably hot.

3. Smarf!

Take that, stupid Kim Kardashian.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Both units on this side of the ball had surprising Week 11 outputs. The Bears finally got out of their funk, as Jay Cutler stopped turning the ball over and made good decisions for a change. His team, as a result, scored consistently after a bit of a slow start and was able to come away with the victory. Tampa’s defense, meanwhile, registered six sacks on the Redskins. The Buccaneers had tallied more than one sack only once since Week 4 prior to this past Sunday.

Tampa may have figured things out during the bye, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Gerald McCoy and company continue to bring lots of heat. The Bears have offensive line issues, so they’ll have trouble at least keeping McCoy out of the backfield. Cutler, as a consequence, could resort back to his #yolo ways despite the easy matchup in the secondary.

Of course, the Bears could avoid all of this and establish Matt Forte early and often. The Buccaneers have an average run defense overall that happens to be ranked 15th in terms of YPC (4.00), but they’ve permitted their previous two opponents to eclipse the century mark. Forte should have a huge game as a consequence, provided that Marc Trestman doesn’t forget to feed the ball to his stud back.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Do I need to convince you that the Buccaneers will score on Chicago? The Bears have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, after all. Their pass rush did come alive against the Vikings, but perhaps that was a fluke, as Minnesota has had major problems blocking this year. Tampa hasn’t been much better in that regard, but Chicago is still in the bottom half of the league in sacks.

The Bears get worse the farther you get from the line of scrimmage. Josh McCown has played decently since taking back over for Mike Glennon, and Mike Evans’ emergence has been huge. I don’t see how Chicago can possibly cover both Evans and Vincent Jackson, given its huge flaws in the secondary.

The one thing the Buccaneers may not be able to do is run the ball; Chicago is in the middle of the pack in terms of stopping the rush, while Tampa hasn’t been able to establish the run at all. Doug Martin, Bobby Rainey and now Charlie Sims have all struggled, and I don’t see things suddenly turning around for one of them.

RECAP: I like the Buccaneers a lot this week. Four reasons for four units:

1. Tampa is playing in their second road game as an underdog, which is normally a good spot. Teams have done very well in this role over the years, yet the oddsmakers haven’t made the appropriate adjustments for it.

2. The Buccaneers, who play well on the road, aren’t as bad as everyone thinks they are. Everyone remembers the blowout losses to the Falcons and Ravens, but those are their only two defeats of more than 10 points this year. Tampa’s had some close games and could easily be 5-5 right now. The botched field goal opportunity against the Rams … the overtime losses versus Minnesota and New Orleans … Think about it this way: What would the spread be if the division-leading 5-5 Bucs were taking on the 4-6 Bears?

3. Chicago has to play in just four days, as it has the Lions coming up on Thanksgiving. There’s major look-ahead potential here, especially after a victory over a divisional rival.

4. The Six and Six Rule applies for the most part. That rule states that teams that finish with six or fewer victories seldom cover as favorites of six or more. The Bears are favored by only 5.5, but that’s close enough.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I love the Buccaneers, and I’m sticking with them for four units. Did you know that the Buccaneers have led in the fourth quarter in six of their previous seven games? They’re not nearly as bad as their record indicates.

SUNDAY NOTES: Wow, an insane amount of professional money has flooded the ticket windows in support of the Buccaneers. The +6s are long gone, and it’s +4 everywhere, save for Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Bears play in four days, while the Buccaneers may want to win this one for Lovie Smith.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

People are still happy to fade Tampa.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 66% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 54-30 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Bears are 30-20 ATS in November since 2001.

Jay Cutler is 34-63 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Bears -6.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Bears 21, Buccaneers 20
Buccaneers +5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 21, Buccaneers 13

Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games
St. Louis�at�San Diego, Arizona�at�Seattle, Miami�at�Denver, Washington�at�San Francisco, Dallas�at�NY Giants, Baltimore�at�New Orleans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
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2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)