NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2025 – Late Games

Houston Texans (12-5) at New England Patriots (14-3)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Jan. 18, 3:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Brian and His Bicycle. Meet one of the most pathetic humans on the planet!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye won his first playoff game, which is a rarity for any signal-caller. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start were 19-41 heading into last weekend, but Maye overcame the odds, albeit with some turnovers involved. Maye left some points on the table with his multiple give-aways, but came up big in the clutch to find Hunter Henry for a touchdown.

Maye will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Texans have an elite defensive line and terrific secondary players behind them. The Steelers couldn’t muster a single point in the second half of the Monday night game, though there are two things New England has that Pittsburgh lacked. The first is a quarterback who can move. Maye can beat any defense with his legs, while Aaron Rodgers is a statue quarterback at this stage of his career. Second, the Patriots have a better offensive line than the Steelers possess. It’s not an elite blocking unit, but Maye will have better protection than Rodgers, if only by default.

Maye won’t be able to count on his rushing attack – the Texans are fourth against the run – but he could make good use out of his tight ends. The Texans are just above average against the position, so Maye should be able to connect with Henry and Austin Hooper.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans scored 30 points Monday night, but NPCs and those just checking box scores believe that C.J. Stroud had an amazing game. I know this because all I saw on X was people saying, “C.J. Stroud has taken the Texans to the second round in all three seasons!” The only manner in which the number three is significant with Stroud is the number of turnovers he committed against the Steelers. Stroud made a couple of big-time throws, but was rather underwhelming overall.

Stroud battled a team with a talented pass rush, but one that also had some major holes in the secondary. This is a far tougher matchup for Stroud because the Patriots have excellent defensive backs to go along with a pass rush that made life extremely difficult for Justin Herbert last week. Obviously, Herbert is not well protected at all, but it’s not like Stroud has terrific blocking in front of him either.

The Texans were able to move the chains despite Stroud’s struggles via Woody Marks’ great runs. The rookie eclipsed 100 rushing yards, but could have trouble doing so this week, given that he won’t be battling Pittsburgh’s 20th-ranked rush defense again.

RECAP: When I initially saw that this line was New England -2.5, I immediately knew that I’d like the host. I have the Patriots a few points better than the Texans, so with home field and the one day of extra rest considered, I made this line New England -4.5. We were getting two points of value, which doesn’t sound overly important until you consider that we were going through the key number of three.

The sharps must have thought the same thing because they bet the Patriots very quickly at -2.5, moving this line to -3. We’re no longer going through three, which is a bummer.

However, the Patriots still seem like a fine play at -3. They have the advantage concerning quarterback play, blocking, and preparation time/rest. The Texans have the better defense, but it’s not like New England has a poor defense. It’s ranked 11th since the midway point of the season, which should be good enough to keep Houston’s offense in check.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s too early for a weather report, but it says that there’s potential snow in the forecast. You’d have to think that would benefit the team from the northeast and not the one from Texas, though I don’t think something like that would preclude the Texans from winning if they were the better team.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nico Collins has been ruled out. I’m going to lock in the Patriots because it looks like this line will move to -3.5. The best line is -3 -114 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link. We’re also going to bet both defenses to score touchdowns, and we’re going to parlay them as well. These bets are done on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Patriots at -2.5 earlier in the week, and they bet them at -3 today, moving the line to -3.5 in most places. You can still get -3 -122 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
Line: Rams by 4. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Jan. 18, 6:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Chicago, where tonight the Chicago Blackhawks take on the, eh, I don’t care. My Philadelphia Eagles were cheated out of a playoff win. Unbelievable! All the refs cheated and colluded against me. I’m going to refuse to analyze these games because my Philadelphia Eagles were supposed to go to the Promised Land!

Emmitt: Thanks, Land. I hear once that if you break a promised, you gonna have seven year of bad luck, so if you go to the Promise Land, and if you breaked your promised, you gonna have seven year of bad luck, which is how many day, you type in the number X in your calculator machine when you first type in seven and then you hit the number X and you type in the other number which seven, so you getted 49 day of bad luck, which a lot of day, but shorter than I thinked that seven year would be.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, I just learned that there’s 365 days per year in my home school class. Mother is lucky that I was even paying attention because I was dreaming about my girlfriend, who told me that her father was a king who was overthrown by radicals in his country, and now she’s looking to visit me so we can get married and have babies together after I send her some funds. I told her we could get married, but babies might be a challenge because I’d have to get Mother’s permission to touch a girl, even if it’s my wife.

Jay Cutler: Now you guys see why I pee on this guy’s pillow.

Kevin Reilly: New Daddy, you said this last week, but I didn’t thank you for peeing on my pillow. I also learned in home school class that boy animals pee to mark their territory, so you’re just telling everyone that you love me when you’re peeing on my pillow.

Tollefson: Kevin, you’re absolutely correct. When I first capture my female slaves, I know that there might be some resistance. Women, after all, are dumb creatures who are not aware that God made them so they can cook and clean naked for men. To help these clueless whores get the message, I urinate on them frequently during the first week when they’re tied up in the cellar to show them who’s boss, and in the end, they end up loving me.

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I’m going to ask Mother if I can go pee-pee on my soon-to-be wife, but I don’t think she’s going to go for it. Besides, I think I’d have trouble going in front of a woman who isn’t Mother for the first time. Clarissa Thomas, do you think I could practice and prepare by going pee-pee on you?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, You. I have some breaking news to report. The Rams have acquired Matthew Stafford in a trade from the Lions, in exchange for Jared Goff. Back to you, You.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, first of all, the Lions are stupid enough to draft Stafford Matthews to the Rams. Second, why did you call me “You?” Don’t you know my name? I’m Kevin Reilly, the No. 1 super fan of my Philadelphia Eagles!

Mina Kimes: Does anyone find this absolutely ridiculous? Kevin, why are you asking Charissa Thompson if she knows your name? Female sports broadcasters are way too smart and intelligent for these questions. Our analysis is too vast, so we can’t be expected to know the names of our co-workers. Also, I think it’s extremely offensive that you asked another woman – especially a female NFL analyst – if you could urinate on her. How dare you? It would be like me asking Geno Smith if I could urinate on him! Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, so it would have to be someone special doing the urination. And you’re not special enough to urinate on a female sports analyst, especially one as great a Charissa Thompson!

Kevin Reilly: Fine, maybe I’ll ask one of these guys here if I can pee-pee on them for practice.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT YOU’RE GOING TO ASK OTHER MEN IF YOU CAN URINATE ON THEM!? THIS IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF MALE PRIVILEGE! ARE WOMEN TOO INFERIOR FOR YOU TO ASK IF YOU CAN URINATE ON THEM!? WHAT WILL IT TAKE FOR A WOMAN IN THE WORKPLACE TO BE URINATED ON!?

Kevin Reilly: Good grief, this is like a no-win situation!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about no-win situations, Kevin. Let’s discuss different types of no-win situations, Kevin. We can begin with zero-sum games, Kevin. Perhaps the Cornelian dilemma, Kevin. Now we’ll transition to double bind, Kevin. Could you, would you, with Kobayashi Maru, Kevin? Would you, could you, with Morton’s fork, Kevin? What are your thoughts on preparedness paradox, Kevin? Care to share about catch-22, Kevin? Do we dare delve into Vladimir’s choice, Kevin? Let’s debate about winner’s curse, Kevin. We’ll now target two-body problem, Kevin, or maybe the Scorpion and the Frog, Kevin. And last but not least, Kevin, there’s Kevin Reilly, Kevin, because Kevin never wins and is a total loser, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: YOU’LL SEE, CHARLES DAVIS! YOU’LL SEE WHEN I HAVE MY WIFE WHO I PEE-PEED ON AFTER SAVING HER FROM THE REVOLUTIONARIES WHO MURDERED HER SWEET FATHER! We’ll be back right after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams were up 14-0 and 17-7 against the Panthers. They looked like they’d cruise to an easy win. Stafford, however, banged his finger on a helmet and was never the same after that – until the final drive in which he led the team to victory. Stafford underwent X-rays, which came back negative.

Stafford could be close to 100 percent, if not that in this game, thanks to a full week and an extra day of recovery. If so, he won’t have any issues shredding the Bears. In the past three weeks, Chicago has surrendered huge performances to Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and “No Cookie” Jordan Love. The Bears can’t rush the passer whatsoever, so Stafford will have all the time in the world to locate Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and his million tight ends.

If Stafford isn’t completely healthy, he’ll be able to lean on his running game. The Bears just did a solid job of stuffing Josh Jacobs, but the Packers were dealing with offensive line injuries. Chicago is just 21st versus the rush since the midway point of the season.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While Stafford started hot and then cooled down because of injuries, Caleb Williams experienced the opposite. The Bears had just six points against the Micah Parsons-less Packers defense through three quarters. Williams came through in the clutch, but his poor start does not bode well for this game.

The Rams have a far better pass rush than the Packers without Parsons. The Bears have a strong offensive line, but Williams will still see some pressure, and that could get him into trouble, especially with Rome Odunze seemingly not 100 percent. Williams will still lean on Colston Loveland, who has a middling matchup.

The Bears will be looking to keep Williams safe from the Rams’ dynamic pass rushers, and they can do that by putting their quarterback in short-yardage situations. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai’s runs will be key in this regard, but Los Angeles is a solid 10th against the run.

RECAP: If I knew Stafford would be 100 percent for this game, I’d bet the Rams heavily. Despite last week’s close call, I still have them as being the best team in the NFL. The Bears, conversely, are a mediocre team that has gotten very lucky with turnovers and late-game situations. They’re 11-6, but they probably should be 8-9 or 9-8. If they happened to have that record, we know the Rams would be favored by much more.

The problem is that we don’t know Stafford’s status. He reportedly has a sprained finger, but is managing it and is fully expected to play in this game. It would be shocking if Stafford sat, but we don’t know if he’ll be 100 percent. As mentioned, an extra day of rest will help, but that may not be enough.

I’m still going to be on the Rams. I’ll pencil them in for three units for now. If we hear glowing reports about Stafford’s finger throughout the week, we could move to five units. Regardless, we’ll be backing the superior team against an overrated Chicago squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another predicted cold-weather game, with forecasts calling for 17-degree temperatures. The Rams, however, came closest to beating the Eagles last year, nearly doing so in a blizzard, so I’m not worried about how they’ll handle freezing temperatures.

SATURDAY NOTES: Evan and I had a debate about what the weather would be during Thursday’s live stream:



We’ll have to see what the weather looks like on game day. If it’s going to be like 3 degrees, then I don’t think we can bet the Rams.

PLAYER PROPS: The weather looks just fine, so we’re going to bet the over on the combined quarterback passing yards again. We’re going with 500+ at +115 and 650+ at +900 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the weather doesn’t look like too much of a concern. It’s not ideal, but the Rams should be able to do well in this game. The sharps disagree, however, betting the Bears at +4. The best line is Rams -3.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.