NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2025 – Early Games

Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 46.
Saturday, Jan. 17, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

Week 19 Analysis: We had some great weeks to close out the regular season, but the wild card round of the playoffs was a disaster in terms of picking sides. Luckily, we made out extremely well with our live prop bets. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Rams, 5 units (loss): The Rams led 14-0 and 17-7. They looked like they were going to cruise to an easy victory until Matthew Stafford banged his finger on a helmet. Stafford was poor afterward until the final drive, but the damage had already been done.

Eagles, 8 units (loss): I thought Lane Johnson would play. When Johnson was declared out, the sharps hammered the 49ers. I didn’t feel as confident in the Eagles as I did before, but I still would have bet them heavily; just not at eight units. It goes to show that it’s better to have all the data available before locking in any bets.

Chargers, 3 units (loss): I’ve made so much money betting against quarterbacks making their first playoff starts, but that backfired this weekend. All three covered, albeit because of Stafford’s injured finger and a complete Green Bay meltdown. Drake Maye didn’t play well either, but Justin Herbert was far worse.

Steelers, 3 units (loss): This was 7-6 at halftime and 10-6 in the fourth quarter. The Steelers had a chance to cover before the strip-sack scoop and score, but the officials missed Aaron Rodgers getting struck in the head on what should’ve been a roughing-the-passer penalty. I’m not saying we definitely should have covered this one, but the Steelers should’ve had a chance.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Things looked grim for a while for Josh Allen. He suffered three separate injuries in the victory against the Jaguars. He was 11-of-12 for 110 yards before banging his finger, and it didn’t take very long for him to injure his knee on a scramble. Allen looked a bit worse than usual for a while, but then he put together a great drive in the fourth quarter to win the game, albeit doing so too quickly because taking a knee on first down would have been the smarter approach.

Nevertheless, Allen will move on to the divisional round. He should be much healthier with nearly a week removed from the injuries. He’ll have a tough matchup on paper, as the Broncos are known for having a stellar defense, but that is misleading. I’m not here to say that Denver has a poor defense by any means, but the Broncos ranked “just” 11th in defensive EPA in the second half of the season. The Packers scored 26 points against them before losing Christian Watson and Zach Tom, while the Jaguars lit them up for 34 points. Trevor Lawrence threw all over the Broncos, who couldn’t pressure him at all. Lawrence is typically well protected, but so is Allen. And like Lawrence, Allen will be able to utilize his legs to pick up some first downs.

Allen will make good use of his tight ends. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox in Box have been very productive over the second half of the season, and that should continue to be the case against a Denver defense that was just 17th against tight ends. The Broncos have some liabilities in the secondary as well – outside of Patrick Surtain II, of course – so Allen will also be able to attack those areas.

DENVER OFFENSE: Allen is the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs. On the other end of the spectrum, there’s Bo Nix. While Nix has had some great moments in the clutch this year, he’s mostly disappointed otherwise. He’s had far too many games in which he’s displayed horrible mechanics.

Nix has struggled against the Raiders and the 22nd-ranked Chiefs defense. Now, he takes on the Bills, who are terrific against the pass. They have a strong pass rush and an excellent secondary to keep Nix’s receivers from doing too much damage.

The weakness of the Bills, of course, is the run defense. They’ve been trampled by many teams this season, but if there’s one team remaining in the playoffs that can’t take advantage of that, it’s probably Denver. The Broncos are 20th in rush offense EPA. R.J. Harvey is explosive, but dances behind the line of scrimmage too much. He can break a long gain, but takes far too many losses or minimal gains as a result.

RECAP: This spread isn’t even close to what I have calculated. It easily has the greatest disparity between my number and the actual line. The spread is just pick ’em, and yet my line has the Bills favored by 5.5.

If this seems outrageous, you may not have been monitoring the Broncos very closely this year. They’ve done nothing but beat bad or mediocre teams in close games. They beat the Raiders 10-7, the Jets 13-11, the Titans 20-12, the Marcus Mariota-led Redskins 27-26, the Giants 33-32, the Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs 20-13, and the backup Chargers 19-3. If the Broncos had one or two close calls against these teams, that’d be one thing, but this was every week with the Broncos. Their only two convincing victories came against the Jake Browning-led Bengals, which was close for a while, and the Cowboys before they acquired Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson.

Against the top-tier teams, the Broncos struggled to maintain a winning record. They were 3-2 against Groups A and B, which includes a home blowout loss to the Jaguars. They beat the Packers, but only after Watson, Tom, and Micah Parsons got injured. They beat the Eagles, but only after Philadelphia fell asleep while being up 17-3 in the fourth quarter. They beat the Chiefs, 22-19, but that Kansas City team was on the verge of collapse. The Cowboys beat the Chiefs by just as many points.

The Broncos are the most overrated team in the playoffs. Nix has been horrible at times, the running game is subpar, and the defense isn’t even ranked in the top 10. The Bills, conversely, have the superior quarterback and pass defense. I have them 6-7 points better than the Broncos on a neutral field, so this pick ’em line is an absolute gift. This is my January NFL Pick of the Month.

Our Week 20 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something noteworthy to Josh Allen’s practice regimen was that he was limited on Tuesday and then full on Wednesday. He was full every day last week, so this could be an indication that he’s not 100 percent. That might explain why sharp money has come in on Denver despite the public backing Buffalo. I may have to lay off this being a Pick of the Month, though we already bet the Bills for five units at PK -110, which isn’t a good number anymore because Denver is favored by one.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ed Oliver has been actived. It’s unclear how healthy he’ll be, but his presence can’t hurt in this game. I still love the Bills despite Josh Allen’s limited designation on Tuesday.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to play the combined passing yards of Josh Allen and Bo Nix. DraftKings has 425+ at -117 and 600+ at +1440. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ty Johnson is inactive, but that’s really the only noteworthy thing on the list. The sharps are on the Broncos, but I still love Buffalo. The best line is Bills +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 45.
Saturday, Jan. 17, 8:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 28-53-1 heading into Week 18.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers +3

Bears +1.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17 and 1-2 in Week 18. Booo!

The playoffs have been good to the public so far. The public teams went 2-0 in the wild card round. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers +7.5

Bears +4

It’s interesting that the public is betting two underdogs.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s an exchange I had with someone who posted negatively on one of our completed ladders from the weekend:



I’ve gotten hate on occasion on winning plays. It’s rare, but it’s happened before. Here’s the rest of this exchange:



This person has a condition that the medical community refers to as mental retardation.

This next person is not mentally retarded, but he’s close:



The good news is that he doesn’t have weird numbers attached to his name. The bad news is that he doesn’t know the difference between your and you’re (and yore, probably), and he also doesn’t understand that I publish all of my results. There’s no reason for his little brain to wonder anything.

In this final piece of hate mail, someone quote tweeted something accurate I posted about AWFLs, who are the scourge of America:



Here’s what the quote tweeter wrote:



What a scumbag! This is the sort of behavior you saw from those who turned in their neighbors during the Holocaust, or those who turned in their neighbors during Covid, or basically Randall from the cartoon TV show Recess. This is a place in hell reserved for these individuals.

The funny thing is, I don’t work with these organizations. How can one work with NFL Draft, anyway? This is another mentally retarded person.

Here’s the rest of our interaction:





I have zero doubt in my mind that this person abuses women and/or children. He was clearly thinking about it when he made baseless accusations against me, so this is what we call projection.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers’ 23 points in Philadelphia was a surprise to some. They scored just three points in the prior game against the Seahawks and were battling the No. 3 defense in the NFL. Seven early points came on a fluky big play by Demarcus Robinson, but the Eagles couldn’t stop the 49ers when it counted most.

There was one big boost for the 49ers in the game against Philadelphia, and that was Trent Williams’ return to action. Williams wasn’t available for the Seattle game, but he played against the Eagles. I wondered if he wouldn’t be 100 percent coming off injury, and he wasn’t, but his presence allowed the 49ers to block better than they would have without him. Williams should be even better with nearly a week of rest. He’ll make a huge difference versus Seattle’s stout offensive front.

While Williams will be healthier, George Kittle – or as my dad mistakenly calls him, “Gary Kittles” – will be sidelined. While Jake Tonges has been a terrific replacement, Kittle will sorely be missed in this matchup because Seattle is one of the weakest teams against tight ends. The Seahawks, conversely, are No. 2 against the run, so Christian McCaffrey will get even less on the ground than he did against the Eagles.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Eagles scored just 19 points against the 49ers, but that doesn’t mean that San Francisco’s defense played well. Jalen Hurts made some horrific throws, while A.J. Brown’s three drops were killers. Lane Johnson’s unexpected absence also loomed large.

I’m expecting a better performance from Seattle’s offense against the San Francisco defense. The 49ers have no personnel capable of getting to the quarterback, which is huge against Sam Darnold. We know the issue with Darnold by now – he’s awful under pressure, but can perform well when kept clean. He’ll be kept clean in this game, allowing him to connect frequently with Jaxson Smith-Njigba.

The 49ers are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. They lost yet another linebacker a couple of weeks ago, which is why they looked so inept against Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet in Week 18. Saquon Barkley, who couldn’t run against anyone not named the Giants all year, generated 100 rushing yards last week. Walker and Charbonnet should be able to pick up where they left off in the regular-season finale.

RECAP: The Seahawks beat the 49ers by 10 a couple of weeks ago, doing so in San Francisco. Both teams had equal rest heading into that game, but that’s not the case this time. The NFL, in its infinite wisdom, scheduled the 49ers to play on a short week, while the Seahawks have the luxury of coming off a bye. I don’t understand why the NFL is doing this outside of monetary reasons. Roger Goodell, once again, will do anything it takes to make a quick buck.

The lack of rest and preparation time isn’t ideal for the 49ers, but I think they can overcome it for two reasons. First, they’re a good team, and it’s generally the bad teams that perform way worse on a short week. Second, they’ll have Williams available, which wasn’t the case in Week 18. It can’t be stated how important Williams is for the 49ers in general, let alone in a game against the league’s No. 2 pressure rate.

I’m not in love with this pick, but I’m going to take the points. We’re getting all the key numbers with a decent team, and I don’t think the Seahawks are this amazing squad where they should be favored by more than a touchdown versus a competent opponent. Aside from the Week 18 result, the Seahawks haven’t beaten an opponent of San Francisco’s caliber or better by more than eight points. And I know I’m not counting the win over the 49ers, but again, that was without Williams, who is extremely important in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Fred Warner was limited on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s been indicated that Warner’s return is scheduled for next week, but it’s not like the 49ers are locked into that decision. There’s a chance Warner could play, which would explain why the sharps took the 49ers at +7.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: Fred Warner is out, but that’s not the major news in this game. Sam Darnold left Thursday’s practice with an oblique injury and is listed as questionable. While he’ll probably play, it’s not a certainty. Mike Macdonald said he’s “really optimistic” that Darnold will play, but he also said that the injury could limit Darnold physically. I think we need to lock in the 49ers because if Darnold is out, this line will drop to +3 or +3.5. The best line is 49ers +7 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sam Darnold will play, which is a bummer, but we don’t know if he’ll be 100 percent. The sharps were on the 49ers at +7.5 earlier in the week and +7 today. This line is +6.5 in most places, but you can still get +6.5 -114 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.