NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)

NFL Picks (2014): 89-82-6 (+$145)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 24, 5:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -6.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Bruce Arians was right. The Cardinals can win with Drew Stanton. They demolished the Lions at home, so anything is possible! Erm, OK, maybe not. I’m mimicking the public and the talking heads here, who came away impressed with Arizona’s victory over Detroit. I’m not quite buying into the hype, however. I expected the Cardinals to win over a Detroit team that constantly has dog performances following big wins, and they barely hung on despite getting three ridiculously favorable calls from Jerome Boger, who watches Scooby Doo episodes instead of reviewing plays.

Besides, it’s not like Stanton was that great. What did he do after those two initial touchdowns? He put up zero points, and he even thought he was Kurt Warner, trying to fit passes into very tight spaces, and he was picked twice as a result. More interceptions will follow if Stanton continues to take chances.

If the Cardinals want to move the ball, they’ll do so on the ground. Andre Ellington has been a great pass-catching back, but he hasn’t done as well on the ground. That may change this week, however, as the Seahawks looked completely inept trying to stop the run at Kansas City without their top defensive tackle, Brandon Mebane, who is out with an injury.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks also have injury issues on this side of the ball, as Max Unger was carted off with an ankle injury at the end of the Chiefs’ game. Seattle struggled to do anything offensively without Unger. Marshawn Lynch was stuffed twice; there was a delay-of-game penalty; Russell Wilson took a sack; and the Seahawks had two failed drives where they scored no points after being so efficient earlier.

The Cardinals, like the Chiefs, have a top-10 defense, but they happen to specialize in stopping the run, which is the Seahawks’ strength. Something has to give, and while I’d normally favor Lynch under normal circumstances, Arizona’s No. 4 ground defense could certainly put the clamps on Beast Mode without Unger blocking for him.

Wilson changes that dynamic a bit though. He’s had a tremendous amount of success running around and moving the chains, so he’ll continue to do that. However, he hasn’t thrown the ball well in four weeks, and Arizona’s superb secondary won’t make things any easier.

RECAP: The Seahawks have the 49ers coming up on Thanksgiving, but I think this is a bigger game for them. They can still win the division by sweeping Arizona and winning one more other game than them. It’ll also be their chance to prove that they are still a legitimate contender. Everyone loves the Cardinals – including the betting public – so this is a potential statement game for Seattle.

A couple of other things to keep in mind: The Cardinals just won their own statement game against the Lions. Being three up in the division, this contest doesn’t mean as much to them. Also, Stanton, who struggled in the second half last week, will be playing in Seattle’s hectic environment, which does not bode well for him. On the flip side, Wilson has done very well off a loss thus far in his career.

I’m taking the Seahawks for three units. I wish we were getting a better number, but this spread is pretty much Vegas screaming for as many people to take the Cardinals as possible.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping this to zero units. The sharps are on the Seahawks, but I just don’t have a good vibe for this game. This Seattle team just keeps finding ways to either lose or barely beat inferior competition, while the Cardinals always seem to pull through. I’m worried that the Seahawks might be looking past Arizona to their big Thanksgiving night game. I’m not going to pick the Cardinals, but I’m not putting any money on the host.

SUNDAY NOTES: Bobby Wagner is back for the Seahawks, which is huge. Perhaps that’s one reason the sharps have bet the Seahawks all week. I like them too, but like I said, I don’t have a good feeling about them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 58% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Home Team has won 6 of the past 9 meetings.

Seahawks are 28-12 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 6-3 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 14
Seahawks -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 19, Cardinals 3

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4)
Line: Chargers by 5.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -4.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 96 remained prior to this week, yet we’re down to 44 because the Broncos and Saints lost.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers have been a mess ever since the second half of their loss at Denver, and now we know why. Antonio Gates spilled the beans – Philip Rivers is dealing with a rib injury, which would explain his struggles. Of course, that’s just part of it, as his offensive line has been a train wreck. The unit couldn’t even block the Raiders, who don’t have much of a pass rush. San Diego scored just 13 points as a consequence.

Unless Rivers’ ribs magically heal during the six days leading up to this game, the Chargers will have trouble lighting up the scoreboard yet again. It’ll be even more difficult this time considering the type of pass rush Rivers and his blockers will have to deal with. The Rams have found their groove defensively. They were able to put so much heat on Peyton Manning, and they figure to have even more success getting to Rivers.

The Chargers won’t be able to run the ball either. Their line can’t open up lanes, and the Rams are fifth in terms of stopping ground attacks, limiting the opposition to 3.59 YPC.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Everyone is focused on the Chargers’ impending offensive struggles, but what about St. Louis’? San Diego got a bunch of players back from injury last week and stymied the Raiders’ “scoring” unit as a result. The Rams aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, so they could have just as much trouble putting points on the board.

The Rams do have bits of good news. For one, Shaun Hill was much cleaner than the turnover-prone Austin Davis. Hill wasn’t dominant, but most of his passes went where they needed to go, and he was able to lead multiple scoring drives against a quality Denver defense. Things will be difficult, as the Chargers cover extremely well with Brandon Flowers healthy again.

St. Louis also was able to establish a ground attack with Tre Mason last week. Mason had his way with the NFL’s top rush defense, so even though San Diego is excellent against the run, perhaps he’ll at least have some success. He’ll need to in order to make life easier for Hill, who has a very tough matchup.

RECAP: There was value with St. Louis +6 when the spread opened up, but the sharps quickly gobbled that up, and the current number isn’t as pretty. The Rams still seem like the right side, but I won’t be dying to take them at close to a field goal considering all of the games they’ve blown this year.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is weird. The sharps were on the Rams early, but they jumped on the Chargers late in the week. The Adopted Team dynamic I talked about favors the Chargers – the infamous podcast adopted St. Louis – so I’m changing my pick. I still wouldn’t bet this game though.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps have been split on this game, but have leaned toward the Rams. They should be afraid that St. Louis was the adopted team this week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 55% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Rams are 26-41 ATS on grass since 2001.

Jeff Fisher is 5-12 ATS on the West Coast since 1999.

Jeff Fisher is 46-31 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Mike McCoy is 16-11 ATS.

Opening Line: Chargers -6.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Rams 17
Chargers -5.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 27, Rams 24

Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3)
Line: Broncos by 7. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -4.5.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! DeSean Jackson saves Emmitt from Andy Reid, and then the group finds the second scion of the Walking Buc apocalypse.

DENVER OFFENSE: Most were shocked to see the Broncos post just seven points against the Rams this past Sunday, but there were two reasons why they had so much trouble in St. Louis. The first was obvious – Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both went down, so excluding Demaryius Thomas, Peyton Manning had no one to throw to. The second hasn’t been discussed as much, and it’s that Manning was once again dealing with a defense that could pressure him heavily and consistently without blitzing. The Seahawks won this way in the Super Bowl, and the Rams were just yet another physical NFC West squad to beat him up.

The Dolphins are much like the Rams. They have a tremendous front line that can rack up tons of sacks without sending extra pass-rushers. This is not good news for Manning, and neither is the fact that Thomas and Sanders could both miss this game. Manning has been so successful in Denver because he’s had a tremendous supporting cast, but a quartet of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Jacob Tamme and Andre Caldwell is not going to get the job done.

Like the Rams, the Dolphins will be able to put the clamps on the Broncos’ rushing attack. Denver’s runners were limited to just 29 yards on the ground last week, so the backs can’t be pleased that they have to go up against a defense that has permitted only one team to gain more than 86 yards on the ground since Week 3.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Broncos, like the Dolphins, boast a top-10 ground defense, but it didn’t appear that way last week when Tre Mason and the Rams tallied 120 yards on the ground against them. Denver may fix its rush defense in the near future, but it may once again have trouble handling the opposing backs, as we’ve seen defenses struggle two weeks in a row in this regard, with last year’s Seahawks coming to mind when they couldn’t stop the St. Louis or Tampa runners in consecutive weeks.

Besides, the Dolphins run the ball well because Ryan Tannehill is a threat to take off a scramble for a big gain out of the read-option. The Dolphins would love to establish Lamar Miller so they can keep Tannehill out of long-yardage situations, where he’ll have DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller breathing down his neck. The Dolphins have protected Tannehill well for most of the year, but not recently; they’ve given up eight sacks in the past two weeks in the wake of Branden Albert’s injury.

The Broncos have the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL in terms of YPA, as they rank only behind Miami. They’ll make life difficult for Mike Wallace, who often can’t connect with Tannehill on downfield throws. I doubt the two will suddenly start clicking in this contest, though Tannehill likes throwing to his new, emerging weapon in Jarvis Landry.

RECAP: This is my top play of the week. I love the Dolphins. Five reasons for five units:

1. This spread is way too high. There isn’t much of a difference between Denver and Miami; I have this at -5, and that’s before factoring in the Thomas and Sanders injuries. If both are out, this spread should be closer to -4.

2. Speaking of the spread, it has crept down from -8 to -7, as the sharps have been on the Dolphins. The sharps have sucked this year, but only because they’ve been betting awful teams – a terrible mistake in the new CBA era – and wagering poor situations that don’t work anymore. This seems like a true sharp side.

3. There’s so much public action coming in on the Broncos, so considering the awful Week 10 that Vegas endured, there’s a chance that the majority of the highly bet sides fail to cover.

4. This is a huge game for the Dolphins to prove that they are legitimate contenders. People like Miami, but don’t fully believe that the team can compete for the Super Bowl. The Dolphins will be looking to change that thought process with a big victory in Denver. The Broncos, meanwhile, won’t be as focused with a huge battle at Kansas City coming up.

5. The Dolphins are so much better as road underdogs. Check the trends below; it’s astonishing how well they’ve done when getting points in away contests.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wasn’t pleased to hear that Emmanuel Sanders would probably be playing, but I still love the Dolphins. The sharps are on them as well.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped to +6.5. I’m hoping Bovada posts a line because they’re usually higher on the favorites. They inexplicably have no spread set yet, which is quite embarrassing on their part.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Once again, there’s tons of action on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 78% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 16-9 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Underdog is 54-28 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 82 games.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Broncos 23, Dolphins 20
Dolphins +7 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 39, Dolphins 36

Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -6.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Halloween and orange juice.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Robert Griffin had problems with Mike Shanahan, and now he’s having issues with Jay Gruden. At some point, Griffin has to realize that the coaches aren’t the ones at fault, and he needs to take responsibility for his losses. I’ve never seen Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. throw their teammates under the bus after a defeat, yet Griffin continues to do so without any remorse.

Griffin will probably continue to struggle. He’s not hitting his downfield throws to DeSean Jackson, and I don’t know why he would suddenly start doing so now. He’ll also have to deal with lots of pressure. The Buccaneers racked up a season-high six sacks against him last week, so the 49ers, who have improved their ability to get to the quarterback in the wake of Aldon Smith’s return, have to be licking their chops.

If the Redskins have success moving the ball, it’ll be on the ground. The 49ers are a decent 12th against the rush (3.91 YPC), but it’s so difficult for opposing defenses to focus on Alfred Morris with Griffin posing such a threat to take off.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers won’t have as much success pounding the ball. Colin Kaepernick can also scramble for big yardage, but he has shown that he’s more reluctant to do this in most of his regular-season games. Frank Gore has consequently struggled against the NFL’s tougher run defenses, and the Redskins certainly apply, ranking ninth against ground attacks (3.73 YPC).

The Redskins are also decent at getting to the quarterback, thanks to Jason Hatcher, who is having an incredible season. This is not good news for Kaepernick, as his offensive line has failed him in many games. The 49ers have given up the fourth-most sacks in the NFL (32).

Kaepernick will need time to expose the weakest part of Washington’s defense, which happens to be the secondary. The Redskins can’t cover, but Kaepernick’s weapons, save for Anquan Boldin, have been inconsistent, and Kaepernick himself often doesn’t have enough time to find them downfield.

RECAP: This spread is way too high; it should be around six or so. The 49ers won’t be focused either, given that they have a big game against the Seahawks coming up on Thanksgiving. The Redskins appear to be the right side, but I can’t back them because this Griffin turmoil could really have a negative impact on their performance. Griffin is one of the most overrated players in the NFL and should be faded on most opportunities.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If the Redskins didn’t seem like they were on the verge of breaking down, I would take them. Unfortunately, Robert Griffin is an overrated player who throws his teammates under the bus and doesn’t try hard. Most of the other Washington players don’t want to win for him. On the other hand, the 49ers, who have a very tough game in four days, are favored by way too much.

SUNDAY NOTES: The public has pounded the 49ers, and there hasn’t been enough sharp support to even this out. The Redskins could be on the verge of imploding, so I don’t blame the pros for passing on this big dog. Chad Millman said the sharps are on the Redskins, but that’s not accurate because they haven’t been betting Washington.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
The 49ers have the Seahawks next week, but the Redskins appear to be in turmoil.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No one wants any part of the Redskins.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 77% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 14-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

Opening Line: 49ers -8.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Redskins 17
Redskins +10 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 17, Redskins 13

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7)
Line: Cowboys by 4. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Nov. 23, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: How many interceptions will Eli Manning throw this week? Will he eclipse five and make it a half-dozen? Or will he have a relatively clean game and toss only three?

Manning was complete garbage in Sunday’s loss to the 49ers. The Giants had multiple chances to come away with a victory (or at least a cover), yet Manning spoiled it with horrific interceptions and hopeless fades. Manning, as usual, had lots of pressure in his face, and he’ll have the same problem come Sunday night, given that the Cowboys produced nine sacks in their three games prior to the bye. Dallas doesn’t have the best pass rush, but it’s not like it’ll have much of a challenge getting around New York’s pedestrian front.

Having said all of that, the Giants might have a chance to score some points. Unlike the previous matchup, they’ll have a legitimate threat in the backfield with Rashad Jennings. Andre Williams was awful – unless you consider falling forward after two yards a positive trait – but Jennings has what it takes to expose a poor Cowboy ground defense.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Of course, the Cowboys’ running threat is much better than what the Giants have. DeMarco Murray has been the best back in the NFL this year, and he’ll continue to dominate. Believe it or not, but New York is actually worse against the rush than Dallas is; whereas the Cowboys are 30th in opposing YPC (4.83), the Giants are dead last (5.05), as they’ve surrendered an average of 175.5 yards on the ground in their previous four games.

With Murray running well, Tony Romo, who has had plenty of time to heal, will be able to torch New York’s secondary in favorable passing situations. The Giants used to be decent against the pass, but things have changed ever since Prince Amukamara was lost for the season. Zackary Bowman has been thrust into the starting lineup as a result, and he has struggled as a replacement.

The one thing the Giants do well now defensively is get to the quarterback, as Robert Ayers has been a major force in recent games. However, the Cowboys protect Romo well, and New York didn’t have much success pressuring Romo in the previous matchup.

RECAP: I’m sure the sharps will be all over the Giants this week, but they’ve sucked this year. It’s usually not wise to pick such a publicly backed team in a prime-time game – and I’m not betting this contest because of that – but I think Dallas will cover. The Cowboys are the better team; New York constantly finds ways to lose; and the divisional home dog on national TV rule applies.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both the public and sharps are on the Cowboys, creating a huge liability for Vegas. I’m wary of betting on teams in these sorts of situations, so I wouldn’t want a part of Dallas tonight. I think the Cowboys are the right side though.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Cowboys have the Eagles in four days. This is the Giants’ Super Bowl.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Everyone will be betting on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 81% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Cowboys have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Jason Garrett is 3-0 ATS off a bye.

Cowboys are 4-16 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

The underdog is 49-22 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Eli Manning is 31-24 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Giants 20
Cowboys -4 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 31, Giants 28

New York Jets (2-8) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bills -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -3.5.
Monday, Nov. 24, 7:00 ET
At Ford Field, Detroit
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

Check out the new Spam Mails page here with my most recent responses.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Remember the last time the Jets played the Bills? Well, “played” isn’t exactly accurate. They showed up to the stadium, threw the ball to the other team, got hit, and then went home. Of course, that was Geno Smith who was guilty of those interceptions, as his turnovers allowed Buffalo to establish a big lead and never look back.

QBDK has allowed the Jets to stay in games. He’s not a good quarterback, by any means, but he’s at least a professional signal-caller, unlike his predecessor. He also happens to be a better runner, which will come in handy against a Buffalo defense that leads the league in sacks with 37. The Bills, who just brought down Ryan Tannehill five times, will flood QBDK’s backfield and could cause problems. Thus, it’s good that Smith still isn’t under center, or he’d panic and throw the ball to the other team.

The Jets should be able to move the ball a bit though, primarily on the ground. The Bills once ranked near the top in terms of rush defense, but three of their previous four opponents have eclipsed the century rushing-yardage mark. I’m not sure the Jets will make it four of five with Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson, but they’ll at least pick up decent yardage and perhaps keep QBDK out of obvious passing downs.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Like the Bills, the Jets are strong in terms of getting to the quarterback. They aren’t as strong as their divisional counterpart, but they at least rank in the top 10, as they’re tied for ninth with 27. This is not good news for Kyle Orton, who holds on to the ball way too long in the pocket. This wasn’t an issue for Orton the last time these teams clashed, but Smith won’t be gift-wrapping a bunch of points with his turnovers this time around.

Orton will be sacked several times, but he’ll have success moving the chains because the Jets’ secondary is so bad. They can’t cover anyone, and they had major problems containing Sammy Watkins in the prior meeting. Watkins wasn’t at full strength in the Miami game, but he’s had 10 days to heal up. He should be back to normal in this contest.

Speaking of players getting healthy, Fred Jackson will return after a one-game hiatus. It’s quite difficult to run on the Jets, who are third against ground attacks (3.44 YPC), but Jackson will serve as a reliable asset on third downs and passing situations.

RECAP: This is major revenge for the Jets, who were humiliated in the prior meeting. The Bills, meanwhile, won’t be fully focused, as they tend to struggle following games against the Dolphins. I also think this spread is too high, as Buffalo’s fluky wins make it seem like it’s the better team when these squads are pretty close to even.

I’d actually take the Jets for a couple of units if the Bills weren’t coming off extended rest. They’ve had extra time to prepare for what is a must-win if they want to get into the playoffs. The Jets have also had extra time coming off a bye, but they’ve had two weeks to hear about how great their victory over the Steelers was.

As a final point, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the snow situation in Buffalo. Conditions are so dire there that this game could be postponed. This could also negatively affect the Bills, as they players are undoubtedly distracted by what’s been going on in “Snowmaggedon.”

SATURDAY UPDATE: I’m putting two units on the Jets. I think the snowstorms will have a major negative impact on Buffalo. Two other teams were displaced before playing a home game because of severe weather in the past decade – Chargers (wild fires), Vikings (roof collapsing) – and both lost in blowout fashion. The Bills were worrying about getting out of their homes, so how could they focus on football, especially after losing to a huge rival in Miami?

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping this to one unit because I’ve had enough of betting on crappy teams after that Tampa loss. Besides, I’m planning on spending some money on the Saints tonight. The Jets appear to be the right side though, as the Bills could be distracted by all of the weather issues they’ve endured.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Bills usually can’t get up for post-Dolphins games.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

There’s been late money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 70% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Jets have won 9 of the last 13 meetings (home team has won 5 of the last 6).

Rex Ryan is 1-4 ATS off a bye.

Bills are 6-28 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Bills -4.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Jets 20, Bills 16
Jets +2.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 38, Jets 3

Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -5.5.
Monday, Nov. 24, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New Orleans, filled with drunken partiers who are all idiots. You might be wondering why I’m dressed as a knight, and no, it’s not as a Halloween costume. I am dressed as a knight so I can challenge Drew Brees to a duel after the game for beating my Eagles in the playoffs last year!

Emmitt: Willas, I am confuse, very confuse. It is because some people say there is a “K” in night. I look at all the alphabet in night, and I cannot find the “K!” The first alphabet “N,” then “I,” then “G,” then “T” and follows by “H.” Four alphabet, and no “K” found anywheres!

Reilly: That’s because there’s a difference between knight and night, Emmitt.

Emmitt: Ah, that make sense to myselves. That is why people says white knight and black night – because they have different alphabet.

Millen: You two have me longing for the medieval days. How I would love it if some white knight would win a battle for me and then strip me down in his tent and shove a nice, big, juicy kielbasa into my backside. Oh, I am excited now. Say, Kevin, you look like a white knight. How about coming back to my hotel so we can ride each other all night long?

Reilly: Ew, get away from me, gay f****t! Stop touching my arm! That actually reminds me that I need to get Herm out of Big Ben’s closet, since he’s been there and hasn’t had gay sex with Big Ben yet. Meh, maybe I should just leave him there.

Tollefson: Kevin, Millen’s homo antics have given me a great idea. I’ll go buy a suit of armor and we can go hit the French Quarter for drunken hoes. We can tell them that we are knights that got sucked into a time vortex, and we just fought in a tough battle where we almost died. The drunken hoes will fall for it, and we can bring them back to our hotel rooms where they can cook and clean for us naked!

Reilly: That’s stupid! Who cares about girls when my Eagles are involved? I need to challenge Drew Brees to a duel! Besides, mother would be mad at me if I kissed another girl without her permission.

Fouts: And here’s how you would get her permission, Kevin! First, you need a permission slip. That’s basically a slip, which is really another word for a piece of paper, that contains words that give you permission to do something. Then, you need to go to your mother’s house. There are a variety of ways you could get to your mother’s house from New Orleans. You could fly back to Philadelphia. You could drive back up. You could take a train. You could walk. And you could even canoe up the Atlantic Coast. The Atlantic Coast is the same side of the country as the Atlantic Ocean, and that’s not to be confused with the Pacific Coast, which is south of the Atlantic Coast. Once you’re home, open the door. Once you open the door, step inside. Once you step inside, walk to your mother and have her sign the permission slip. To do that, grab a pen, put it into her hand and have her sign the document.

Reilly: Thanks, a**hole. I know how to have my mom sign a permission slip, but where would I get one in the first place?

Charles Davis: Kevin, there are plenty of places to get permission slips, Kevin. How about a school, Kevin? There are plenty of permission slips there, Kevin. You can ask a teacher for a permission slip, Kevin. Teachers are people who teach, Kevin. How about a doctor’s office, Kevin? A doctor will give you a permission slip, Kevin. How about a police station, Kevin? If you stopped crime, a police officer is sure to give you a permission slip, Kevin. How about a fire station, Kevin? You’ll never guess who works at a fire station, Kevin. I’ll give you four guesses, Kevin. Oh, you think clowns work at a fire station, Kevin? That’s incorrect, Kevin! Strike one, Kevin! Three more strikes and you’re out of the ball game, Kevin! Oh, you think dog trainers work at fire station, Kevin? That’s strike two, Kevin! Oh, you want to forfeit your third strike because you give up, Kevin? That’s too bad, Kevin, because firemen work at fire stations, Kevin!

Reilly: I didn’t forfeit my third strike, you idiot! I was still guessing! Wait, I didn’t even guess once. Why the f*** would I guess the answers to your stupid questions!? You are all idiots who are distracting me from fighting Drew Brees in a duel! We’ll be back after this!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: No one expected the Saints to put the clamps on the Bengals, or anything, but it was shocking when they could barely score. It was shocking, at least, until we found out that Jimmy Graham played hurt throughout most of the game. Cincinnati lit up Graham with a dirty hit it was penalized for on the Saints’ first drive. Graham hurt his shoulder on that play, and he just wasn’t the same for the duration of the afternoon. More disaster struck later, as Brandin Cooks suffered a season-ending injury.

The snake-bitten Saints will have Graham available, but will he be close to 100 percent? Graham will have an extra day of rest, but his status is an unknown. The difference in New Orleans’ offense when Graham has been healthy and when he’s either been hurt or banged up has been astronomical. If Graham is OK, he and the New Orleans wideouts will have success against a Baltimore defense that has issues in its secondary. If, however, Graham isn’t himself, the Saints will have trouble scoring again.

Something we do know is that New Orleans won’t be able to run the ball very well in this contest. The Ravens may have big problems in their defensive backfield, but they are still stout against the run. They rank sixth in terms of YPC (3.60), as no team has gained more than 100 yards on the ground against them since Week 5.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: While Mark Ingram figures to struggle in this contest, Justin Forsett will pile up the yardage. The Saints’ issues on this side of the ball are well-documented, and they start up front, where the defensive line and the linebackers can’t contain opposing backs. They’ve surrendered 294 rushing yards to their previous two opponents.

Forsett running well will open things up for Joe Flacco, who won’t have to worry about the crowd noise as much if he’s in short-yardage situations. The Saints actually have a semi-decent pass rush – 16 sacks in the past five games – so keeping Flacco in manageable situations will be paramount.

Having favorable passing opportunities will help Flacco, as the Saints figure to have Keenan Lewis back close to full strength. Lewis, a terrific cornerback, was limited to just 11 snaps last week, and it goes without saying that New Orleans really missed him because A.J. Green was able to go off. If Lewis is healthy, he’ll be able to take away one of the Smiths and limit Flacco’s options.

RECAP: I like that the Saints are playing a night game at home, which has historically been a great spot for them. I like that we are getting good line value with them; they were six-point favorites in this matchup a week ago. I also like that they are desperate. They’re coming off two losses, both of which were at home, so they’ll look to do everything in their power to make sure they don’t suffer a third-consecutive defeat.

I don’t like that the Saints seem snake-bitten this year. I don’t like that they have a tough matchup in Pittsburgh next week that they have to prepare for on short rest. I also don’t like the fact that Graham and/or Lewis may not be 100 percent.

I’m taking the Saints, but I don’t know for how much because of Graham and Lewis. I’ll see how I feel as the week progresses, and hopefully there will be news on Graham and Lewis. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m taking the Saints for two units. They have been so good at home, especially in night games. I know they’ve lost at the Superdome lately, but I love how everyone is writing them off. Also, Jimmy Graham and Keenan Lewis were playing hurt last week, and they’re both healthy now. Pierre Thomas back will also be huge for this struggling offense. This would be a bigger bet if John Harbaugh weren’t so great off a bye, but everything else makes up for that.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
Slight lean on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 62% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

John Harbaugh is 5-1 ATS off a bye.

Saints are 35-16 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 13-3 ATS in night home games in the Drew Brees era.

Drew Brees is 29-18 ATS after a loss with the Saints (8-4 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Saints -4.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Ravens 27
Saints -3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 34, Saints 27

Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games
Kansas City�at�Oakland, Cleveland�at�Atlanta, NY Jets�at�Buffalo, Tampa Bay�at�Chicago, Jacksonville�at�Indianapolis, Green Bay�at�Minnesota, Detroit�at�New England, Tennessee�at�Philadelphia, Cincinnati�at�Houston

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Patriots -1, Jets +8.5 (2 Units)

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)