NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2015): 5-6-3 (-$2,010)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2015): 6-10 (-$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2015): 8-7-1 (+$195)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2015): 11-5 (+$1,550)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2015): 7-7-2 (+$110)

NFL Picks (2015): 110-119-9 (-$5,115)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 28, 4:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-9)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 53.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.
Sunday, Dec 27, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

I don’t know if you noticed, but I made a slight change to the home page to separate all of the categories of the site…

You may have seen a section called Open Rant, where you can create your own blogs. If they are good enough, I’ll post them on the home page or tweet them out.

Our 2016 NFL Mock Draft Builder is live! Create your own mock, which could be placed in the mock database. I’ll also tweet some of them out.

We also have a NFL Power Rankings Builder. Don’t like my power rankings? Create your own!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: This was a surprise non-line, as Drew Brees’ status is in doubt. Brees hurt his foot on a non-contact injury Monday night, but played through the pain. Upon further inspection, however, it has been determined that Brees has sustained a torn plantar fascia. Brees said he wants to continue to tough it out, but that could change after he gets checked out by a doctor.

If Brees plays, he’ll obviously be affected by the injury, but he should still have success torching the Jaguars on occasion. Jacksonville has a miserable secondary that has allowed so many bad/inexperienced quarterbacks to put together great games, and Brees has both of his starting receivers, Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead, healthy at his disposal.

If Brees sits out, it’ll obviously be much more difficult for New Orleans to move the chains. Brees is so good that he covers up a lot of warts on this Saints squad. Matt Flynn has failed almost everywhere in the NFL, so I don’t see why he would have success here. Oh, and regardless of which quarterback is at the helm for New Orleans, Tim Hightower won’t run very well, as the Jaguars happen to be prolific versus the rush.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I never would’ve imagined it back after Week 1, but the Jaguars actually have the more-explosive scoring unit between these two teams. Blake Bortles isn’t always clean, but he has thrown for 31 touchdowns this year, thanks to two great receivers, a talented tight end, and some excellent coaching to boot.

Bortles will have a field day against the Saints. Matthew Stafford just torched them, and Bortles will pick up where he left off. New Orleans’ pass defense is a mess, as the team often doesn’t know where to line up. I don’t see it being able to slow down Allen Robinson or Allen Hurns at all, not to mention Julius Thomas.

The Jaguars also figure to run very well against the Saints, who are also dead last in terms of stopping ground attacks. T.J. Yeldon is considered questionable for Week 16, but Denard Robinson has proven capable as a fill-in.

RECAP: For the third time, there’s no line on this game, so check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates. My early lean is a somewhat strong one to Jacksonville. Brees is not healthy, and this New Orleans team sucks. The Jaguars, who have averaged more yards per play than four of their previous five opponents, should be able to win in the Superdome.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: No line posted yet.

PICK POSTED: Did you know that the Jaguars have averaged more yards per play than four of their previous five opponents? They’ve also outgained four of their previous five foes as well. This team has played well of late. The same can’t be said of the Saints, who trailed 28-3 against the Lions on a Monday night. Oh, and the last time they averaged more yards per play than their opponent was Week 8!

Drew Brees is banged up, so I don’t expect him to be nearly as effective as usual. New Orleans’ defense, meanwhile, won’t have any answers for Jacksonville’s prolific scoring attack. Thus, I like the Jaguars with the hook for a couple of units.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s been so much sharp action on the Jaguars that the line has moved off +3 in most places, but can still be found at that price on Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 54% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Jaguars are 26-53 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 10-25 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Saints are 36-22 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 33-23 ATS after a loss with the Saints (11-5 ATS as an underdog).

Sean Payton is 9-5 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Saints -3.5.

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Jaguars 34, Saints 27
Jaguars +3 -120 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$240
Over 53 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 38, Jaguars 27

Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (12-2)
Line: Cardinals by 6. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 27, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Episode 15 is posted. Emmitt and his companions have to overcome one more obstacle before confronting Kim Jong-un. Then, they learn the startling truth about Kim Jong-un.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Might as well start on this side of the ball because of Tyrann Mathieu’s injury. The Cardinals suffered a terrible blow when they lost Mathieu, as he was one of the top defensive players in the NFL. The Cardinals had a dominant defense, and he played a large role in that. Now that he’s gone, Arizona will be much easier to throw on, as it has just one viable corner in Patrick Peterson.

If only the Packers had someone to take advantage of this liability. I’m not saying that facetiously. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been himself since beating the Chiefs on Monday Night Football back in Week 4. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury of sorts, which has caused him to struggle. He hasn’t thrived against poor defenses, so what’s he going to do here?

Well, there is definitely one thing going in Rodgers’ favor. The offensive line was solid last week, shielding Rodgers extremely well after surrendering two early sacks. The Cardinals can’t put pressure on opposing quarterbacks without blitzing, so they’ll have to do so against Rodgers, who routinely eats up the blitz. Unfortunately for the Packers, he’ll have to do most of the work, as Arizona hasn’t surrendered more than 70 rushing yards in any game since Week 6.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s a good thing for the Cardinals that they aren’t completely reliant on their defense; otherwise, the Mathieu injury would absolutely bury them. The Cardinals are so explosive on this side of the ball as well, though they could have some trouble with the Packers.

Green Bay’s defense has improved a lot lately. Only one opponent has averaged more than five yards per play against them over the past three weeks, and that was the Cowboys at 5.3. Moving linebacker Jake Ryan into the starting lineup has helped a lot, as Green Bay improved against the run by leaps and bounds. They’re 15th versus the rush overall, but if you take away the Dallas game, they’ve surrendered just 3.5 yards per carry over the past month, which is tremendous. That’s huge going into this matchup, considering how utterly dominant David Johnson was on Sunday night. Johnson will still run well because of his great talent, but he won’t take over the game like he did at Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the Packers have the skill in the secondary to slow down the Cardinals’ aerial attack just a bit. Sam Shields is still in concussion protocol, and it’ll hurt if he can’t suit up, but Green Bay has other talented defensive backs.

RECAP: The Cardinals have been favored by more than a field goal in their previous two national TV home games, yet they managed to win by that exact amount against the Bengals and Vikings. They also had Mathieu for both of those contests, yet they surrendered 51 combined points.

Arizona won’t be the same team without Mathieu, so the fact that they’re favored by 4.5 points over the Packers is questionable. Green Bay hasn’t played all that well recently, but remember the last time Rodgers was getting points and being doubted? He went absolutely nuts against the Vikings, and I like his matchup here against the blitz-heavy Cardinals.

I’m taking the Packers for three units and going against recency bias. I think most people are looking at the Cardinals as the squad that demolished the Eagles, but remember, that was nearly a 17-17 game at halftime, and Arizona nearly lost to Minnesota the week before. With Mathieu gone, the Cardinals, sitting pretty at 12-2, might want to be more cautious and just get out of this game without anyone else getting hurt.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: No change in my mindset. I still like the Packers a lot, as the Cardinals won’t want to go hard in this game in the wake of their injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m surprised the sharps haven’t touched this game yet. Perhaps that’ll change Sunday morning/afternoon.

SUNDAY NOTES: I said I was surprised that the sharps hadn’t bet this game. Well, they’ve pounded the Cardinals on Sunday morning. I think there’s great value with the Packers at +6 now.

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

This game means so much more to the Packers, who still need to clinch the division. Plus, it sounds like they want to get their offense right. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are stuck in the No. 2 seed for the most part.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 52% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Aaron Rodgers is 67-40 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 28-21 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 11-10 ATS as an underdog.

Cardinals are 25-12 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 27-11 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007. ???

Bruce Arians is 30-16 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Opening Line: Cardinals -4.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Cardinals 28, Packers 27
Packers +6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 38, Packers 8

St. Louis Rams (6-8) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5)
Line: Seahawks by 12. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -14.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -11.5.
Sunday, Dec 27, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Christmas Shopping with a Baby.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson has been unstoppable ever since the team made some changes on the offensive line. He has torched everyone the past several weeks, but it’s worth taking a look at which teams he has beaten. He roasted the Steelers, who had issues with Brock Osweiler when he was healthy; the Vikings, who were missing three of their best defensive starters; the Ravens, who haven’t been able to stop the pass all year; and the Browns, who are, well, the Browns.

The Rams will obviously provide a greater challenge. They’ve improved defensively ever since Trumaine Johnson returned to the lineup. Johnson is one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, and he and Janoris Jenkins form a dynamic duo that has given opposing receiving corps fits. Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett have been on fire, but things might be different this week now that Seattle will actually be going up against a stellar defense.

I don’t expect the Seahawks to run the ball effectively with Christine Michael or Bryce Brown either. The Rams aren’t great versus the run, but they’re decent enough, and I don’t trust Michael or Brown. The pass rush will also give Wilson problems. As I stated, the offensive line has been better, but Aaron Donald and company might have to say something about that.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I was pretty impressed with Case Keenum last Thursday. He wasn’t great, but he was way more effective than Nick Foles. He made some nice throws downfield to move the chains effectively.

This, however, could be a different story. Tampa’s secondary is atrocious, while the Seahawks, of course, have terrific personnel in the defensive backfield. It’s hard to feel good about Keenum and his limited downfield weapons. Tavon Austin might break a sizeable gain or two, but that’ll probably be it.

The Rams will have to rely on Todd Gurley to move the chains, and that’ll be a problem, as the Seahawks own a top-five ground defense. The last time they surrendered more than 70 rushing yards was back in Week 10. I think Gurley could eclipse that figure on his own, but he won’t be able to dominate such a stout front seven.

RECAP: This was a game I went back and forth on. On one hand, I think this spread is too high. The Seahawks have throttled their opponents lately, but the Rams’ defense matches up well with their offense. St. Louis’ stop unit should be able to help keep this game relatively close.

On the other hand, I have to believe that Seattle will be motivated by revenge. This definitely won’t be a flat spot, as the Seahawks remember their Week 1 loss to St. Louis all too well.

Like I said, I’m torn. When in doubt, take the points. This is obviously for no units.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: I’m considering changing this to the Seahawks. I’ll have to do more thinking on this.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money is on the Rams, which is hardly a surprise. In fact, I’m going to put a unit on St. Louis myself. I thought about it, and I don’t think revenge plays much into this, as Seattle has bigger fish to fry. The Rams are much better now with both of their corners healthy, while Doug Baldwin is banged up. Considering all of that, this spread is too high.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s a lot of professional action on the Rams. This is down to +11.5 in most places, but can still be found at +12 on Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Seahawks have the Cardinals next, but they’ll want to get revenge on the Rams for sure.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 64% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Seahawks have won 17 of the last 21 meetings (Home Team won last 4).

Jeff Fisher is 50-36 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Jeff Fisher is 6-3 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Jeff Fisher is 6-13 ATS on the West Coast since 1999.

Seahawks are 36-15 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -13.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Rams 13
Rams +12 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 23, Seahawks 17

New York Giants (6-8) at Minnesota Vikings (9-5)
Line: Vikings by 7. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -4.
Sunday, Dec 27, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

The Real John Moss is back! Well, sort of. I found a lost G-chat conversation I had with the Real John Moss, the most illiterate human being on the planet, about the NFL Draft…

Check out the Real John Moss page with that e-mail and all the strange conversations I’ve had with him this year.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Odell Beckham Jr. acted like a maniac in the loss to Carolina loss and has been suspended as a consequence. I discussed my opinion on the Beckham suspension in my Disaster Rating page, but the fact remains that the Giants will have to win without him. And unfortunately for them, doing so could prove to be extremely difficult.

We’ve already seen what this offense looks like without Beckham. Back on a Monday night against the Eagles, Beckham aggravated an injury and was completely ineffective. The Giants were blown out as a consequence, as they couldn’t get anything going versus Philadelphia’s anemic defense. Minnesota’s stop unit is even tougher, especially if it gets some of its injured players back. Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith have been out for a while, and seeing at least one of them return would be a huge boost.

I really don’t know what else the Giants can do without being able to throw to Beckham. Eli Manning has been hot, but only because of Beckham. The offensive line has some injuries that could be exposed. The running game has been mostly ineffective as well. It’s been better lately, as Tom Coughlin finally realized that rotating Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen is the solution, but the Vikings will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage with Beckham out.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings may have trouble running the ball as well. The Giants are just average versus the rush, but Adrian Peterson is banged up. Peterson injured himself versus the Bears in the second quarter this past Sunday. Peterson reentered the game in the third quarter, but didn’t get much work because he was ineffective. It remains to be seen if he’ll be healthier for this contest, but the Vikings shouldn’t count on it.

Thankfully, for Minnesota, it’ll be going up against a questionable secondary and linebacking corps that has surrendered big gains all year. Teddy Bridgewater is heating up at the right moment, so he should be able to pick up where he left off against the Bears. He’ll be able to connect often with Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph; New York happens to be very poor when it comes to defending tight ends.

RECAP: This game could mean everything to the Giants, or it could mean nothing. If the Redskins win Saturday night, they’ll be eliminated from the playoffs. If the Eagles prevail instead, New York will have a decent chance of winning this division – if it can get by Minnesota without Beckham.

I know I made it sound grim for the Giants earlier, but after thinking about it, that Philadelphia game would’ve gone differently had the Giants known that Beckahm would be hurt. I’ve always said that the most difficult thing coaches have to do is make in-game adjustments for significant injuries. The Giants know they won’t have Beckham, so they’ll devise a good game plan without him.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are favored by too much in this game. I know they just thrashed the Bears, but Jay Cutler clearly didn’t try at all. Minnesota is limited offensively, so asking it to win by a touchdown is a bit too much. Thus, I like the Giants to cover.

The unit count, however, remains a mystery. It depends on what happens in the Philadelphia-Washington game, so for the fourth time, check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: This spread was dropping Wednesday afternoon, so I thought that there was a chance that Odell Beckham Jr. would have his suspension overturned. Maybe that was what Ron Jaworski was looking at. Instead, Beckham’s suspension has been upheld, so I don’t know why this line would have moved. It could be sharp money, but it’s a little early in the week for that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to save my final thoughts until after the Eagles-Redskins game, since that result will impact the Giants’ motivation.

SUNDAY MORNING: This game means nothing to the Giants, but the pros still bet them at +7 when the spread moved that way Saturday night. This game might not mean anything to the Vikings either if the Panthers beat the Falcons and the Cardinals beat the Packers, both of whch are likely. This game is just impossible to read for me. I’m taking the Giants, but for no units.

SUNDAY EVENING: The Vikings now have something to play for; if they win out, they’ll claim the division. As expected, the public jumped all over the Vikings, betting this spread up to -7.5. The sharps bet the Giants at +7.5. I’m picking New York, as this spread is just too high. I won’t be betting it though, as there could be a quit factor on the Giants’ part.

The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
The Giants have nothing to play for. Will they show up?

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 55% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 45-26 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 37-26 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Vikings 20, Giants 17
Giants +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 49, Giants 17

Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) at Denver Broncos (10-4)
Line: Broncos by 4.5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -3.
Monday, Dec 28, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, the Mile High City, or as mother says, the city where hippies ruin everything! Tonight, the Denver Broncos battle the Cincinnati Reds. Guys, we really lucked out tonight. Andy Dalton won’t be playing, meaning there won’t be any gingers in this game. As mother says, every time a ginger is born, God gets a little bit weaker and Satan gets a little bit stronger. I’m a man of God, and I only love mother more than God, so I wouldn’t want anything to happen to him!

Emmitt: Mike, or… uhh… Rufus, I have to disagreement on you. I like ginger. He one of my favorite food group. The food group the thing on the uhh… shape with three side. I believe it called a threeangle. At any rate, the four food group are chicken, vegetable, candy and ginger. I learn this in my class at the University of Florida City.

Herm: THAT’S NOT RIGHT! THAT’S WRONG! THAT’S INACCURATE! GOTTA MAKE A CORRECTION! GOTTA MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT! GOTTA FIGURE IT OUT RIGHT! GOTTA THINK OF THE FOUR REAL FOOD GROUPS! GOTTA START WITH CHICKEN! THAT’S ONE FOOD GROUP! CHICKEN’S GOOD! CHICKEN’S REAL GOOD! CHICKEN’S AN ANIMAL! SECOND FOOD GROUP IS DAIRY! DAIRY IS MILK! AND CHEESE! AND CHOCOLATE MILK! AND YOGURT! AND ICE CREAM! THIRD FOOD GROUP IS FRUITS AND VEGETABLES! BOTH IN THE SAME GROUP! NOT JUST ONE! NOT JUST TWO! ACTUALLY, EXACTLY TWO! HERM DOESN’T KNOW WHY HE SAID “NOT JUST TWO!” SOMETIMES HERM GETS CARRIED AWAY! SOMETIMES HERM GETS OUT OF CONTROL! CAN’T CONTAIN HIMSELF! CAN’T CONTROL HIMSELF! ESPECIALLY AROUND BREAD! THAT’S THE FOURTH FOOD GROUP! HERM LOVES BREAD! HERM CAN EAT BREAD ALL DAY! CAN EAT LOTS OF BREAD! ANY KIND OF BREAD! BREAD IS AMAZING! BREAD IS SPECTACULAR! BREAD IS TERRIFIC! BREAD IS INCREDIBLE! BREAD IS GREAT! HERM ALMOST WANTS TO MARRY BREAD! BUT BREAD IS ILLEGAL! MARRYING BREAD IS ILLEGAL! EATING IT IS NOT ILLEGAL! UNLESS IT IS ILLEGAL BREAD! COUNTERFEIT BREAD! NOTHING WORSE THAN COUNTERFEIT BREAD! WHAT’S COUNTERFEIT BREAD!? BREAD THAT’S COUNTERFEIT! THAT MEANS THAT THE BREAD IS… BREAD IS… uhh… umm…

Millen: Herm, I understand where you’re coming from. Though I’ve never had an issue with counterfeit bread, counterfeit kielbasas have always irked me. They’re very dangerous, believe me. Insert a real kielbasa into a 100-percent USDA Man’s backside, and you’ll have an enjoyable evening. Insert a counterfeit kielbasa into a 100-percent USDA Man’s backside, and you may permanently damage him. Suddenly, that 100-percent USDA Man will be a 50-percent USDA Man, or perhaps even worse, a 49.9-percent USDA Man.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by 49.9 percent. That number, 49.9 percent is 0.1 percent less than 50 percent, which is dead even. Unless the thing you’re talking about has a total percentage of more or less than 100 percent. That may seem unlikely, but it is possible. If something is out of 200 percent, 50 percent is just 25 percent of that, so that means 50 is equal to 25, which is not true because 25 is half of 50, which is quarter of 200 but half of 100 and an eighth of 400. Meanwhile, 25 is quarter of 100, an eighth of 200, a 12th of 300 and a 16th of 400. 16 is more than 12, which is more than eight, which is more than four, and all of these numbers are less than 25 and 50, so what does that tell you? That tells you that the difference between 50 and 49.9, which is just a tenth, is less than an eighth and more than a 12th and 16th.

Reilly: What the hell are you talking about!? You didn’t even say anything of substance. All you did was compare percentages for five minutes! You didn’t add anything to the conversation, which was already terrible to begin with!

Wolfley: I AGREE WITH YOU, KEVIN. I HATE ALL THIS TALK ABOUT PERCENTAGES. THAT’S BECAUSE WHEN I WAS 15, A LARGE PERCENTAGE SIGN CAME TO LIFE AND TRIED TO STAB ME IN THE GUT WITH A KNIFE. I WAS LUCKY TO ESCAPE. A FEMALE POLICE OFFICER WAS ABLE TO SHOOT IT BEFORE IT KILLED ME.

Tollefson: Hey, who are you? Have you been here the entire year? I’ve been too focused on taking pictures of the cheerleaders to even notice that we have someone new this year. But anyway, you, sir, sound pathetic. Being saved by a woman? I don’t care if she’s a police officer or a superhero. You cannot, under any circumstances, owe your life to a woman. Otherwise, how are you supposed to force her to cook and clean naked for you?

Reilly: I agree, Tolly, but I think you have to exclude mothers. Mother saved my life once when I was about to cross a busy street.

Charles Davis: And mother is a part of the family, Kevin. Let’s talk about some other members of the family, Kevin. Let’s begin with fathers, Kevin. They’re usually married to the mother, Kevin. How about a brother, Kevin? That’s usually a male, Kevin. What about sister, Kevin? That’s usually a female, Kevin. How about a son, Kevin? What about a grandson, Kevin? Let’s move on to daughter, Kevin, Or how about granddaughter, Kevin? Why don’t we discuss grandpa and grandma, Kevin? What about cousin, Kevin? How about second cousin, Kevin? What about third cousin, Kevin? How about fourth cousin’s dog’s former owner’s best friend’s roommate’s bad-touch uncle’s former wife’s pet parrot, Kevin? Let’s try one more, Kevin. I’m going to list three possibilities and you pick the right one, Kevin. First choice is grape, Kevin. Second choice is great-grandma, Kevin. Third choice is Russell Wilson, Kevin. Oh, you guessed Russell Wilson, Kevin? Well, that’s not what I was looking for, Kevin, but I have to give you credit for it because I didn’t specify if I was talking about Russell Wilson’s family or not, Kevin!

Reilly: HA, I GOT ONE RIGHT! SUCK IT CHARLES DAVIS! SUCK IT LONG AND SUCK IT HARD! We’ll be back right after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: The thing wrong with public perception is that the media often fails to report everything to inform the masses of what really transpired. This applies in all news-related facets, especially by most outlets that like to brainwash people, but it applies to sports as well. Everyone saw Brock Osweiler struggle at Pittsburgh after putting together a brilliant first half. So, what happened? Osweiler, as it turns out, sustained a shoulder injury right before halftime, which adversely affected his play.

Unfortunately, we don’t know if Osweiler is going to be 100 percent, or if he’s even going to play. There’s a chance a one-legged Peyton Manning will draw the start. Either way, it doesn’t sound promising against an excellent Cincinnati pass defense, especially given that Demaryius Thomas isn’t 100 percent, thanks to a shoulder injury of his own, which is causing him to drop countless passes. Vernon Davis will do the same, though that’s because he’s a lethargic bum.

The Broncos won’t be able to run the ball very well to help out whichever hobbled quarterback gets the nod. They struggle to move the chains on the ground anyway, but the Bengals have improved versus the rush lately.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of injured quarterbacks, Andy Dalton has already been ruled out, meaning A.J. McCarron will draw another start. McCarron wasn’t bad at San Francisco, as he completed a high percentage of his passes, but he missed some opportunities downfield, opting to check down instead.

That could be a good thing in this matchup, as McCarron won’t win if he challenges the two Denver cornerbacks. Aqib Talib and Chris Harris were humiliated against the Steelers, so they’ll be looking to redeem themselves. They’d ordinarily have a tough matchup against A.J. Green, but it appears as though the stud wideout is hurt, as he left last week’s game early because he aggravated his back. His availability is obviously very important. The same goes for Tyler Eifert.

Like the Broncos, Cincinnati won’t be able to run very well. The Broncos happen to be stout versus the rush, and Jeremy Hill is an ineffective plodder. Giovani Bernard might be able to do something as a receiver out of the backfield, however.

RECAP: The public loves the Broncos, but I’m wondering why Denver is favored by more than a field goal. I understand that McCarron is on the other side, but what exactly do the Broncos have going for them on offense? Osweiler is hurt, while Manning is done, so the quarterback position is a disaster. Demaryius Thomas is banged up, so he’ll keep dropping more balls. The offensive line can’t block, while the running game is absent. The Broncos are overrated.

The Bengals seem like the better team overall, so I’m going to take them for four units for now. I may change my unit count if Green and Eifert are ruled out, but if one of them suits up, Cincinnati should be able to cover.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: There’s a good amount of sharp money on the Bengals already. Tyler Eifert is out, but it sounds like A.J. Green will play.

SUNDAY NOTES: The public money is pouring in on the Broncos, so it’s a good sign that this number hasn’t moved up.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: I’m dropping this to two units for the time being. There’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Broncos, and the professionals either have a great read on Denver or have inside access because they’ve nailed almost every Broncos game this year. I’ll have another update later tonight.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping all units on this game, and if it didn’t happen to be so close to kickoff, I’d consider switching my pick to Denver. The sharps have continued to pound the Broncos, but it’s more than that. Denver was up 27-10 against the Steelers before Osweiler got hurt, and it sounds like he’s fine. Also, the Broncos absolutely have to win this game. While this is normally a situation to fade, it’s one to bet on if the opponent is another playoff-bound team. This is because Denver won’t be able to relax and take this game for granted. They’ll be at 100 percent against a tough opponent, as they’re in desperation mode to assure themselves a playoff spot and maintain control of the division. (Edit: I’m an idiot.)

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A battle for the bye, both teams will be up for this.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

A decent amount of cash on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 75% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 31-16 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Marvin Lewis is 11-1 ATS as an underdog in his second-consecutive road game.

Marvin Lewis is 9-13 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Broncos 17, Bengals 13
Bengals +4.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 20, Bengals 17

Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games
San Diego at Oakland, Washington at Philadelphia, New England at New York Jets, Houston at Tennessee, Cleveland at Kansas City, Indianapolis at Miami, Pittsburgh at Baltimore, San Francisco at Detroit, Dallas at Buffalo, Chicago at Tampa Bay, Carolina at Atlanta

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Jets +8.5, Jaguars +8.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

NFL Picks - Dec. 3

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 3

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 30

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 2-2 (+$45)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 4-0 (+$1,900)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 13, 2024): 7-7-2 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 13, 2024): +$460

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 106-92-8, 53.5% (-$1,520)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 24-32-1, 42.9% (-$1,760)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-18, 57.1% (+$1,995)
2024 Season Over-Under: 96-95-4, 50.3% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$685

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,527-3,244-204, 52.1% (+$20,150)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,131-1,017-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-503-25 (53.4%)
Career Over-Under: 2,955-2,929-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-5	Bears: 5-6	Bucs: 7-5	49ers: 8-4
Eagles: 7-5	Lions: 9-3	Falcons: 7-5	Cardinals: 9-3
Giants: 4-7	Packers: 8-3	Panthers: 5-7	Rams: 7-5
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-6	Saints: 6-6	Seahawks: 7-4

Bills: 5-7	Bengals: 3-9	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-7	Browns: 5-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 7-4
Jets: 7-5	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-6
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-6	Titans: 7-4	Raiders: 6-6

Divisional: 25-30 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 36-28 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 24-33 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-55 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 13-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 16-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)