NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 21, 2022

NFL Picks (Preseason 2022): 7-5 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 10-6 (+$1,165)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2022): 7-8-1 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2022): 11-4-1 (+$2,825)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2022): 10-5-1 (+$1,305)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2022): 6-10 (-$2,625)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2022): 7-7 (-$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2022): 4-10 (-$2,255)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2022): 7-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2022): 7-4-2 (+$170)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2022): 7-7 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2022): 5-7-2 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2022): 12-4 (+$2,005)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2022): 6-9 (+$75)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2022): 8-5 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2022): 10-5-1 (+$675)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2022): 7-9 (+$220)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2022): 7-8 (+$80)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2022): 10-6 (+$460)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2022): 2-4 (-$830)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2022): 3-1 (+$175)

2022 NFL Picks: 153-132-8 (+$5,065)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 29, 3:00 p.m. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

San Francisco 49ers (13-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Line: Eagles by 2.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Jan. 29, 3:00 ET

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Week 20 Analysis: Week 20 was amazing heading into the final game, as we began 3-0. Unfortunately, we lost our top play with the Cowboys, thanks in part to Tony Pollard’s injury. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Jaguars, 3 units (win): Patrick Mahomes got hurt, so we got lucky with this cover. That said, the Jaguars may have covered anyway because the Chiefs always lay an egg in one half. If you think this would have changed for the playoffs, allow me to point out that this happened in both postseason games last year.

Eagles, 3 units (win): I wish they were all this easy.

Cowboys, 5 units (loss): The Cowboys had a +0.12 EPA before Pollard got hurt. That dropped to -0.29 EPA after the injury. The Cowboys still had a chance to win, but Trevon Diggs’ horrible effort on the George Kittle catch sealed our fate.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat on Discord where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 32-35-1 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bengals +4.5

The public had a nice win with the Bengals and also the Chiefs-Eagles teaser.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bengals -2

The public likes the Bengals again, likely because of the Patrick Mahomes injury.

HATE MAIL: We naturally have more hate mail this week. Let’s get to the hate mail from Matt Gregory, or as he now calls himself, Greg Matthews:

On second thought, I’m not quite sure Matt Gregory/Greg Matthews knows how to read.

Here’s more from Matt/Greg:

I couldn’t imagine being this clueless about sports betting. I got the game right, yet he’s criticizing me for it! Then again, this is the same guy who doesn’t know as much football as his 4-year-old niece:

Let’s get to another hate mailer, with this one being from Twitter:

Darius got the game wrong – his 4-year-old niece must also be smarter than him – but he also resorted to calling me fat:

That would be impossible. If that were true, I’d be the smartest person in the world.

Here’s one more:

I’m actually sincere in my response. I’m a bit disappointed to only be up about $5,000 now, especially after how we started the year.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: When an elite offense battles an elite defense, people like to speak in absolutes, citing that “the defense always wins,” or “the offense always wins.” The reality is that there are mixed results. The Giants defeated Tom Brady twice in the Super Bowl, while Peyton Manning beat the Chicago Bears on the big stage at the conclusion of the 2006 season. What occurs in these sort of battles depends on the matchup.

There are three reasons why I believe this matchup favors Philadelphia. First, the 49ers’ calling card is their terrific pass rush, yet the Eagles have an elite offensive line. As long as Lane Johnson is healthy, Philadelphia is fully capable of protecting Jalen Hurts against anyone. Second, even when the 49ers’ pass rush gets there, Hurts can use his elite mobility to nullify the pressure. The 49ers have been terrific on this side of the ball for years, but they always struggled against Russell Wilson. This is because Wilson was always able to escape from the pass rush. Hurts can do the same thing.

Third, the 49ers have a liability on this side of the ball, which is their cornerbacks. Their cornerbacks have gotten torched by talented receivers toward the end of the season. CeeDee Lamb, D.K. Metcalf, Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin (prior to Carson Wentz entering the field) all went off against San Francisco. As it so happens, the Eagles have two No. 1-caliber wideouts fully capable of torching the 49er corners.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Like the 49ers, the Eagles also have an elite pass rush. San Francisco’s blocking, while solid, isn’t as terrific as Philadelphia’s. We saw the Cowboys get to Brock Purdy on occasion last week, so the Eagles should be able to do the same.

The Eagles will also be able to clamp down on the outside receivers and running game. Philadelphia’s dual shutdown cornerbacks have erased opposing wideouts for the most part this year, so there’s no reason to think that won’t happen again. Meanwhile, the Eagles have gotten so much better versus the rush since Jordan Davis returned to the lineup. They’ll be able to stuff Christian McCaffrey, though McCaffrey will still be productive as a receiver out of the backfield.

Speaking of productive 49ers, one player who is likely to explode is George Kittle. The Eagles tend to struggle against tight ends, so it’s no wonder that Kittle has torched them in recent matchups. In the two games in 2020 and 2021, Kittle has caught 19-of-19 targets for 200 yards and a touchdown. There’s no reason to think the results will be different this time, though Kittle won’t have the luxury of an opposing defender missing a tackle on purpose for business decisions.

RECAP: I believe this number is on the wrong side of three. I made this line Eagles -3.5. The spread is -2.5, so that’s only a difference of one point. However, the key number of three is involved, which is important. Philadelphia winning by three is the most likely result of this game, so betting the -2.5 is the most logical choice from that regard.

Of course, there are other factors. One is that the Eagles’ offense matches up so well versus San Francisco’s defense. A second is that Philadelphia’s pass rush will have more success than the 49ers’ unit.

There is a third factor, and that involves Purdy. The rookie has been terrific, but he has been tested by only one elite defense thus far. That occurred last week versus Dallas, and Purdy didn’t exactly have an excellent game. The Cowboys self-destructed with turnovers, while Tony Pollard’s injury didn’t help matters. The Eagles will not commit such errors.

Purdy also will be in an unfavorable environment for only the second time in his pro career. Remarkably, all but two of Purdy’s starts thus far have come at home. He has played just two road games: at Seattle and at Las Vegas. Purdy won easily in Seattle, but did so battling an incredibly overrated Seahawks team. As for the Las Vegas game, 49er fans made the short trip and packed that stadium. Despite this, the 49ers nearly lost.

Winning in Philadelphia will be so much more difficult for a rookie quarterback, and it’s not like Purdy had all this success in road college games either. As Iowa State’s quarterback, Purdy was 19-4 as a host, but only 11-13 in road or neutral-site games. Some of those away wins came against the likes of UNLV, Kansas, and TCU (when TCU was bad). Against ranked teams, Purdy was just 2-8 in road or neutral-site contests. Of the Seahawks, Raiders and Eagles, only the latter would be “ranked” if transposed to college football.

The final factor in Philadelphia’s favor at the moment is that the sharps are betting them. This could, of course, change as kickoff approaches, so I’ll have updates on this and everything else throughout the week.

Our Week 21 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian McCaffrey missed Wednesday’s practice with a calf injury. It would be shocking if he didn’t play, however. Regardless, I still love the Eagles.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to lock in the -2.5 -115 at Bookmaker/FanDuel. The vig is rising, and it’s even -120 in some places. We could see -3 soon, so I want to make sure to get -2.5. One thing I’m not doing is teasing the 49ers and Bengals. Everyone is teasing the 49ers with one of the other teams, so the sportsbooks will lose lots of money if the 49ers keep this game close. I could see San Francisco getting annihilated in this game if Brock Purdy has an interception meltdown.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Eagles, and so do the sharps. The best line is -2.5 -115 at Bookmaker. I was asked if I’d rather bet -2.5 -120 or -3 +100, and the answer is -2.5 -120. The math works out to -127 being the most you should pay for three. At any rate, I’m also going to bet the Eagles -9.5 +235 at Bookmaker. The thinking there is that everyone is on this 49ers teaser with the Chiefs (earlier in the week) or Bengals (now). The sportsbooks stand to lose a lot of money if the 49ers stay within single digits, and I think that there’s a way this game gets very ugly for them.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Eagles -2.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Lots of early money on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 63% (633,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 50 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 21 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, 49ers 17
Eagles -2.5 -115 (5 Units) – Bookmaker/FanDuel — Correct; +$500
Alt Line: Eagles -9.5 +235 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$235
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 31, 49ers 7

Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
Line: Chiefs by 2. Total: 48.
Sunday, Jan. 29, 6:30 ET

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Angelo, the Snitch. Meet a kid who feared for his life at the neighborhood playground!

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where tonight, the Kansas City Jayhawks take on the Cincinnati Bearcats! Guys, we’re dealing with some serious issues here if you can recall from last week. My New Daddy, Jay Cutler, was possessed by a demon called Belphegor. Even though I’ve been disowned by Mother after my baby brother was born, I love Mother and New Daddy, so I want to do everything in my power to exorcise the demon invading New Daddy’s body. Does anyone have any idea on how to perform this exorcism?

Emmitt: Rodney Reilly, I must admiss that I once knew a lot bit about exorcism because I use to exorcism all the time. When I use to exorcise, I use to run up and down a hill, and it take a lot of endurance and forthitude to run up and down the hill. For those watching this who have work out on hills, this is a opportunity to build strength not only within, but to build strength without.

Reilly: Emmitt, I don’t know what you’re talking about because Mother always forbade me to run on hills because I could trip and fall my virgin body. But I’m not talking about exercising. I’m talking about exorcisms, like getting demons out of people’s bodies.

Tollefson: Kevin, you’ve come to the right place. Whenever a woman I kidnap refuses to cook and clean while naked for me, I perform an exorcism on her because she must be possessed by demons. The first thing you’ll need is a vacuum cleaner. If she turns away from it and refuses to vacuum, you’ll know instantly that she’s possessed by demons.

Reilly: Tolly, I’m performing an exorcism on a man, not a woman, so I have no use for a vacuum cleaner. New Daddy didn’t even know how to plug in the vacuum cleaner back when he wasn’t possessed. Senator President John Festerman, do you have any experience performing exorcisms, and if so, how can we get rid of Belphegor?

John Fetterman: This is an opportunity to build strength. Strength within and within. Strength is strength, and strength is strong. Not the weakness. Weakness is an opportunity to build weakness within and within. Strength! Weakness! Alligators! Hello, San Diego!

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Anyway, I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m eager to turn to Adam Schefter, who might be able to give us some news on how to perform an exorcism!

Adam Schefter: Kevin, you’re right, I have breaking news regarding the exorcism, and this is breaking news that Brett Veach allowed to me to break, Kevin, and this happened under very interesting circumstances. I snuck into Brett Veach’s house and filled his bath tub with Covid-19 vaccine, Kevin. When Brett Veach came home, he found me soaking in the Covid-19 vaccine-filled bath tub, and I asked him to join me. He told me to leave, but I know he secretly wanted to bathe with me, Kevin. Now, I am experiencing chest pains, Kevin, but here’s the breaking news, Kevin. You suck at life, so you don’t need an exorcism to get rid of Belphegor, Kevin. Just annoy Jay Cutler, and you’ll get rid of him. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: Schefter, you are a real a**hole and will soon die of a heart attack. How could I ever annoy New Daddy? New Daddy loves me!

Goodell: I see we are discussing love. Love is a very interesting subject. The definition of love is – processing … processing … processing. Internet connection error.

Reilly: Great, now I can’t find out how Roger Goodell would perform the exorcism! Maybe President Joe Biden knows. He totally legitimately got 81 million votes, so he probably knows about exorcisms and love from New Daddy better than anyone!

Joe Biden: Now look here, you international race car jug of couches, how did you know what I have the Mrs. Joe Biden of the day call me in the hot and steamy shower? When I go to the local middle school, I mean elementary school, I mean kindergarten, and I choose the next Mrs. Joe Biden, I tie her up and take her to the shower, and she calls me New Daddy or she’ll get what’s coming to her. Now here’s the deal. When you take your wife for the day into the shower, you need to have the shower running already and having loud music playing so no one can hear and come for help. When people come running for help, it can really ruin your mojo, and then you can’t even sniff anyone’s hair because you’ve been interrupted.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe said that when you’re interrupted in the shower with a beautiful woman, and believe me I get lots of beautiful women because they say I’m a ladies’ man, and that’s not even me saying it, that’s what everyone says except me, so what do I know, but your mojo doesn’t go away when someone interrupts me with a woman in the shower, I do not lose my mojo like Sleepy Joe because I’m not a total loser and a total disgrace like Sleepy Joe is, and frankly, no one has ever seen such a big loser and a big disgrace like Sleepy Joe, especially not me because I am the biggest winner and the biggest non-disgrace anyone has ever seen in the history of mankind, which is why I not only don’t lose my mojo, but I gain mojo, more mojo, in fact, than anyone has ever seen in the history of mojo, and it’s so much mojo that I don’t know what to do with it, in fact I go to the my security detail and say, “Here’s my mojo, I have so much of it that I need you to take it,” that’s how much mojo I have.

Wolfley: DONALD, I HATE TO BREAK IT TO YOU, BUT I KNOW SOMEONE WITH MORE MOJO THAN YOU. MY NEXT DOOR NEIGHBOR, A MOUSE PAD WITH EIGHT EYELASHES AND FOUR TONGUES, HAS THE WORLD RECORD FOR MOST MOJO.

Reilly: Guys, I hate to interrupt your interesting dialogue, but it’s time for me to perform the exorcism on New Daddy. New Daddy, are you there?

Jay Cutler: I AM BELPHEGOR, AND YOU WILL SERVE ME, LOWLY HUMAN SCUM.

Reilly: I’m beginning my exorcism. Weeeee owwwww weeee owwwwww weeeeee owwwwww!!!

Belphegor: HA! PATHETIC HUMAN! I CANNOT BE EXORCISED! FOR I AM BELPHEGOR, AND YOU WILL SERVE ME!

Reilly: I love you, New Daddy! Weeeee owwwww weeee owwwwww weeeeee owwwwww!!!

Belphegor: YOU ANNOY ME, HUMAN. I COMMAND YOU TO STOP.

Reilly: New Daddy, remember the time we played catch together! I threw the ball, and you just stood there because you didn’t want to move, so I had to retrieve the ball every time! Weeeee owwwww weeee owwwwww weeeeee owwwwww!!!

Belphegor: I SAID STOP, YOU LOWLY SCUM HUMAN!

Reilly: New Daddy, remember the time we watched the football game together? You were turned and facing the wall, so I had to move you toward the TV, so you would know where the TV was! Weeeee owwwww weeee owwwwww weeeeee owwwwww!!!

Belphegor: STOP! ACK! CAN’T TAKE THE ANNOYANCE!

Reilly: New Daddy, remember when we went to the baseball game? You didn’t feel like getting out of the Uber car, so we sat in the Uber car during the entire game because Mother said I couldn’t go into the stadium by myself! Weeeee owwwww weeee owwwwww weeeeee owwwwww!!!

Belphegor: AARRRGGHH! THIS IS NOT WORTH IT. I AM GOING BACK TO HELL. GOOD RIDDANCE!

Reilly: New Daddy? Are you there? Did I save you?

Jay Cutler: Yeah.

Reilly: Are you happy? Do you love me?

Jay Cutler: Meh.

Reilly: Yay, I saved New Daddy with an exorcism, and he loves me, yay!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing exorcisms, Kevin, and there have been lots of movies discussing exorcisms, Kevin. Let’s delve into them, shall we, Kevin? Let’s begin with a classic, Kevin. The Exorcist, Kevin. Surely you have seen that one, Kevin. How about the Exorcism of Emily Rose, Kevin? Why don’t we get to the Conjuring, Kevin? Let’s chat about the Possession, Kevin. Can’t forget about Constantine, Kevin. Let’s remind ourselves of My Best Friend’s Exorcism, Kevin. We can have a fire-side chat about the Divine Fury, Kevin. Lend me your thoughts about the Nun, Kevin. Add in the Cleaning Hour, Kevin. Andy why don’t we also cite you exorcising Belphegor from New Daddy, Kevin, even though New Daddy doesn’t care and doesn’t love you, Kevin.

Reilly: YOU KNOW WHO DOESN’T LOVE YOU, CHARLES DAVIS!? EVERYONE, CHARLES DAVIS! YOU HAVE NO FRIENDS, AND YOU HAVE NO NEW DADDY, AND IF YOU DID, THEY WOULD ALL HATE YOU! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The big story regarding this game is Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain. It appeared as though he would be sidelined for the entire divisional-round battle against the Jaguars, but he was able to gut out a gritty performance. Mahomes prevailed, but clearly wasn’t himself. He was constantly hobbling around and didn’t bother to scramble upon his return to the field. He even had trouble handing the ball off sometimes.

Luckily for Mahomes, he already had a big lead and was battling a Jacksonville team that wasn’t doing anything on the opposite side of the ball. Mahomes will need to engage the Bengals in a shootout in this matchup, and he may have trouble doing so because of his injury. I’d still expect Travis Kelce to have a high-reception game once again because the Bengals aren’t very good at defending tight ends, but the fact that Cincinnati won’t have to worry about Mahomes’ mobility is an enormous boost for them.

The Bengals won’t have to be concerned with the running game in general. They’ve been stout versus the rush ever since they got their two defensive tackles back from injury. Mahomes was really able to lean on Isiah Pacheco’s runs last week, but that won’t be the case this time. He’ll be a sitting duck in the pocket versus a swarming Bengals pass rush that rattled Josh Allen last week.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It’s no fluke that Joe Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs. Burrow is the top quarterback in the NFL against the blitz, and the Chiefs really rely on the blitz to generate pressure on the quarterback. Of the NFL teams with top-10 pressure rates in the NFL this year, only the Giants and Cowboys have blitzed more than Kansas City.

Thus, the Chiefs are in a major dilemma. If they continue to blitz Burrow, they’ll get absolutely torched. If they don’t blitz Burrow, they won’t apply pressure on him, allowing him to have all day to find his many talented weapons. As a Hall of Fame running back once said, “they’re stuck between a rock and a rock place.”

Kansas City also figures to have issues against the other players in Cincinnati’s backfield. The Chiefs are weak to the run, and they especially struggle versus pass-catching running backs. Both Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine can excel in this regard, so it’s no surprise that Perine thrived in the first matchup from earlier this year. Back in Week 13, Perine had a great performance against the Chiefs with Mixon sidelined. He rushed for 106 yards and caught six passes for 49 receiving yards.

RECAP: Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain is a huge deal, and it’s reflected in this spread. There’s no way the Bengals would be favored in Kansas City if Mahomes were healthy, but the line has shifted from Chiefs -2 to Bengals -2.5 because of the injury.

It’s difficult to envision Mahomes performing well. I can think of one instance where a quarterback suffered a high-ankle sprain and tried to gut it out the following week. Back in 2011, when Ben Roethlisberger was in his prime, he suffered a high-ankle sprain versus the Browns and was able to finish the game. The following week, he threw three interceptions in a blowout loss to the 49ers.

Mahomes will still lead a functional offense, and Kelce should be able to make some nice plays, but it’s difficult to envision the Chiefs being consistent when they have possession. And they’ll need to be because their defense is incapable of stopping Burrow and all of his weapons.

As long as this spread is under Cincinnati -3, I love the Bengals, and I’d even like them at that price (albeit for fewer units). This will be another five-unit selection, as I love both sides this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp money on the Chiefs, likely because Patrick Mahomes practiced fully on Wednesday. I’d be shocked if he were 100 percent despite this. I’m happy to get a better number with Cincinnati.

SATURDAY NOTES: Travis Kelce apparently injured his back in Friday’s practice. It’d be shocking if he doesn’t play, but this could mean that both Kelce and Patrick Mahomes won’t be 100 percent.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Travis Kelce will play despite being listed as a game-time decision. However, he may not be 100 percent. Regardless, I still love the Bengals. The best line is +2 -108 at Bookmaker and +2 -110 at Caesars. The sharps, however, are on the Chiefs.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Bengals -1.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Lots of early money on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 67% (525,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 32-11 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).

Patrick Mahomes is 70-18 SU, 46-41 ATS (35-29 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Chiefs are 13-31 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Opening Line: Chiefs -2.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 23 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 21 NFL Pick: Bengals 26, Chiefs 20
Bengals +2 -108 (5 Units) – Bookmaker/Caesars — Incorrect; -$540
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 23, Bengals 20

Go to 2023 NFL Mock Draft

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Props to be posted here

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

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2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)