NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2020

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2020): 9-6-1 (+$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2020): 13-3 (+$1,910)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2020): 12-4 (+$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2020): 6-7-2 (-$675)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2020): 9-5 (+$1,770)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2020): 5-9 (-$2,365)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2020): 6-7-1 (-$580)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2020): 9-5 (+$1,210)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,945)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2020): 5-8-1 (-$825)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,935)

NFL Picks (2020): 80-76-5 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 29, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games







New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Denver Broncos (4-6)
Line: Saints by 16.5. Total: 36.5.

Sunday, Nov. 29, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2020 NFL Survivor Pool.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: All of the blue checkmarks were out in full force about Sean Payton’s decision to start Taysom Hill over Jameis Winston. These stupid people thought they knew better than Payton. If they had paid attention rather than just complain about dumb things on Twitter all day, they may have seen Hill perform perfectly splendidly in preseason games last year. I thought Hill was terrific, and I nearly put my money where my mouth was. I switched to the Saints after picking the Falcons initially, but didn’t wager on them for some reason. I truly regret that.

Hill made some mistakes, but played well against the Falcons overall. He’ll have a far tougher matchup this time against a Denver team that has its secondary intact. They gave Tua Tagovailoa some fits, and they could create a turnover or two against Hill. The difference, however, is that Hill is such a gifted runner. The Broncos have some injuries in their front seven that could make it difficult for them to stop Hill when he uses his legs.

In fact, Denver’s entire defensive line has been sidelined in recent weeks. We saw the Raiders exploit this liability a couple of weeks ago when they pounded Josh Jacobs down the Broncos’ throat. The Saints could utilize a similar strategy with Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray.

DENVER OFFENSE: Drew Lock’s play was absolutely shocking last week. I know that he was able to capitalize on some great opportunities he had because his running game was working extremely well, but I expected him to be limited by a rib injury he suffered the prior game. Instead, he looked perfectly healthy.

Lock, however, won’t be able to benefit from easy passing chances in this contest. There’s no way the Broncos will rush for 166 yards again. Even half that sum might be a challenge because the Saints have one of the top run-stopping defenses in the NFL. Their front will dominate in the trenches, forcing Lock into some long-yardage opportunities.

We’ve seen Lock self destruct when things aren’t going well, and I think the same thing might happen in this contest. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Lock is guilty of three or more turnovers against a New Orleans defense that is so much better than it was at the beginning of the year.

RECAP: I plan on betting the Saints if Denver’s injury report isn’t better than it was last week. As mentioned, their entire defensive line has been absent the past three weeks, which New Orleans will be able to greatly abuse in this matchup.

Meanwhile, I expect Lock to have another meltdown. If the Broncos can’t run the ball, Lock tends to get into trouble, and I believe he will struggle mightily against a Saints defense that will still be playing very hard for its inexperienced quarterback.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t think the Saints need Marshon Lattimore to win this game, but it’s a nice thing that he practiced fully Wednesday. Meanwhile, Bryce Callahan missed Wednesday’s practice, which is a big deal.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos will still be missing their entire defensive line, which would normally give the Saints a huge advantage because their great offensive front would be able to overpower Denver in the trenches. However, the Saints will be missing two starting offensive linemen with Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat sidelined. I’m dropping this unit count to zero.

SATURDAY NOTES II: All three Bronco quarterbacks were sent home due to nonsense. There’s a chance Drew Lock could play, but there’s also a possibility that Royce Freeman will be Denver’s starting quarterback! I wanted to place a medium-sized bet on the Saints just in case, but the game is off the board at every sportsbook!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Ugh, if only the sportsbooks didn’t lock this game! This spread is now -16.5, and believe it or not, I’m considering a small bet on the Saints. I just don’t see how the Broncos score in this game. I’ll think about putting a unit or two on New Orleans. Check back around 3:30 Eastern for an update.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is up to -17! That’s crazy, but justified. The Broncos don’t have a quarterback, and I don’t think they’re going to try very hard, based on their many complaints on Twitter last night. That could be wrong, but it’s hard to see how Denver can be motivated. I’m going to bet a unit on the Saints, with -17 -105 being available at Bovada and FanDuel.




The Motivation. Edge: Saints.
The Broncos may not play very hard, given that they believe they were screwed over by the NFL.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -4.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -5.5.
Computer Model: Saints -7.
DVOA Spread: .




The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Slight lean on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 63% (7,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Saints are 13-18 ATS as road favorites of 4 or more since 2010.
  • Broncos are 27-15 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.
  • Opening Line: Saints -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Sunny, 36 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Saints 24, Broncos 0
    Saints -17 -105 (1 Unit) – Bovada/FanDuel — Correct; +$100
    Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Saints 31, Broncos 3




    San Francisco 49ers (4-6) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3)
    Line: Rams by 5. Total: 44.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 29, 4:05 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

    Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 continues! Emmitt and his friends reach ESPN headquarters and meet the Red Woman, who delivers some good news amid chaos.

    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams were humiliated against the 49ers when they battled them six weeks ago. They lost by only eight points, but the game was severely lopsided, and they didn’t have a chance. Jared Goff was poor in the contest, going 19-of-38 for 198 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. His receivers couldn’t separate at all.

    I suspect things will be different this time. The 49ers are missing one of their safeties (Jaquiski Tartt) and their slot cornerback (K’Waun Williams), among other players. Jared Goff, with Sean McVay’s help, will be able to exploit some positive matchups. Cooper Kupp should thrive, while the offensive line keeps Goff clean against a 49er pass rush missing several players.

    My primary concern with the Rams is that Andrew Whitworth’s absence will hurt long term, but his absence won’t be very impactful in this contest because the 49ers are missing their primary pass rushers.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: George Kittle absolutely murdered the Rams in the first meeting between these teams. The Rams won’t have to worry about him, of course, as Kittle will continue to be sidelined. The same applies to Jimmy Garoppolo, who will continue to miss action. Meanwhile, Trent Williams is out with an illness, so the blocking will be worse in this rematch.

    I can’t see Nick Mullens having much success against a Los Angeles secondary that has improved since that Week 6 loss. Crazier things have happened, I suppose, but Mullens has a tough task against a stalwart Los Angeles front will force too many bad throws into a talented secondary, and it’s not even clear which receivers will be available for San Francisco.

    One way the 49ers can move the chains is by getting Jerick McKinnon out in space against the Ram linebackers. While Los Angeles stops the run well, the team struggles to cover the middle of the field, so McKinnon and the backup tight ends could do well. That’s about it for the 49ers though.

    RECAP: This is a nice revenge spot for the Rams, who will be looking to get back at the 49ers for beating them soundly on national TV. Given all of the injuries San Francisco is now dealing with, the Rams should be able to get the victory this time.

    I’m not sure if I’m going to bet the Rams yet, but I may end up putting some units on them if the injury report is as bad for San Francisco as I think it is.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s going to be tough for the 49ers to be competitive with Trent Williams sidelined, though it’s worth noting that Richard Sherman has returned to practice. I’m looking forward to seeing how San Francisco’s injury report looks.

    SATURDAY NOTES: If Trent Williams can’t clear the Fauxvid list, the 49ers are going to be a complete mess. They’ll be down three starting offensive linemen, a starting receiver (Brandon Aiyuk), their top two edge rushers, several cornerbacks, a starting safety, and possibly two linebackers. I’m eagerly awaiting Williams’ status. If he can’t go, there’s no way the 49ers will be able to block the Rams. This would be a potential letdown spot for Los Angeles if it wasn’t for San Francisco’s earlier win against them.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Trent Williams and Richard Sherman will play, which makes the Rams a non-wager for me. In fact, the sharps have been betting the 49ers aggressively. I’m sticking with the Rams, but for no units.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The 49ers are getting back Richard Sherman, Trent Williams and Raheem Mostert. That’s huge. I can understand why the sharps have been betting them. I’m going to stick with the Rams, but I wouldn’t blame you for siding with the 49ers. I’m not betting this game.



    The Motivation. Edge: Rams.
    The Rams have revenge on their minds.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -6.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -7.
    Computer Model: Rams -7.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 51% (3,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: 49ers have won 21 of the last 30 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie.
  • Opening Line: Rams -7.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Rams 20, 49ers 13
    Rams -5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    49ers 23, Rams 20




    Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)
    Line: Chiefs by 3.5. Total: 56.

    Sunday, Nov. 29, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called The Most Cowardly Man on the Planet.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes was spectacular in his final drive against the Raiders. Granted, it was just the Raiders’ defense, but Mahomes quickly zipped down the field to prevail at the very end, putting himself well ahead of everyone else in the MVP race.

    The way to beat Mahomes, and other elite quarterbacks like him, is to generate heavy pressure on him without blitzing. I thought the Buccaneers would be able to do that with the talent they have on their defensive line, but after the Monday night game, I’m not so sure. The Buccaneers failed to put heat on Jared Goff despite Andrew Whitworth being sidelined. The Chiefs are missing multiple blockers – Mitchell Schwartz, Kelechi Osemele – so perhaps the Buccaneers will have more success against this opponent, but it’s far from a guarantee.

    What we do know is that Mahomes will have to do everything himself. The Buccaneers have the top run defense in the NFL, so everything will be on Mahomes’ shoulders. Luckily for Mahomes, his receivers and tight ends will have nice matchups, especially if Jamel Dean misses this game with the concussion he suffered Monday night.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: What I said about Mahomes applies to Tom Brady as well, in regard to beating him with non-blitzing pressure. The Rams didn’t get to Brady often Monday night, but they made him very uncomfortable in the pocket when the game was tied at 17, which forced a poor throw that was intercepted, eventually giving the Rams a 24-17 lead.

    Brady clearly missed his healthy offensive linemen, as Ali Marpet’s absence was emphasized when left tackle Donovan Smith was knocked out on the first play of the game. Smith returned to the field eventually, but was clearly not the same. Things then got even worse when center A.Q. Shipley left the game. If the Buccaneers had a healthy blocking unit, I’d give them a decent chance of protecting Brady, but if two of Marpet, Smith and Shipley miss this game, the Chiefs will be able to put heat on Brady with Chris Jones and Frank Clark.

    Conversely, if Brady has his healthy offensive linemen, he’ll have a great opportunity to shred a Kansas City secondary that blew tons of coverages against the Raiders. Nelson Agholor had his way with the Chiefs, so what are Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown going to do?

    RECAP: I think I would love the value with the home underdog under normal circumstances. The Buccaneers are coming off an ugly game against the Rams on Monday night. A major problem for them was having Smith and Shipley get hurt, which gave them a bad matchup against the Rams’ defensive line. If two of Marpet, Smith and Shipley were to play, we’d have a great value opportunity with the Buccaneers in this instance.

    However, the Buccaneers are coming off yet another Monday night game, which will make it difficult for them to A) make the appropriate adjustments they need to versus the Chiefs, and B) allow their injured linemen to recover.

    Still, I’m on the Buccaneers. I’m a huge fan of playing great quarterbacks off a loss, and I can’t pass up on the value at +3.5. The two most likely results of this game are the Chiefs winning by three and the Buccaneers winning by three, and we get both here.

    I still need to see the injury report in regard to the injured offensive linemen, but this could end up being a huge play on the Buccaneers.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ali Marpet is expected to return this week after practicing fully on Wednesday. This is huge because it’ll give the Buccaneers a good chance of keeping Chris Jones away from Tom Brady. I said I’d need either Marpet or Donovan Smith to return to bet the Buccaneers, so I will be doing that.

    SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still awaiting Ali Marpet’s status, but things are looking good for him. If he can clear concussion protocol, I’ll like the Buccaneers quite a bit in a great rebound spot for Tom Brady. In fact, I’m going to look to lock in the +3.5 available at Bovada once we have some clarity on Marpet’s status. The sharps have been betting the Buccaneers, so I don’t want to miss out on the +3.5.

    SATURDAY NOTES II: Ali Marpet still hasn’t been cleared yet, so there’s a chance he’s still experiencing symptoms. If Marpet and Donovan Smith are out, I want no part of the Buccaneers.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Ali Marpet news. The Buccaneers are optimistic that he’ll suit up. If so, I’ll be on the higher end of my Tampa betting range.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Great news for the Buccaneers! Not only will Ali Marpet play, but Donovan Smith will, too. That means the Buccaneers will have their offensive line fully intact, which is huge for Tom Brady’s chances of rebounding in this game. The sharps have jumped on the Buccaneers as a result, so finding +3.5 -110 is impossible. The best line I see is +3.5 -115 at both Bovada and BetUS. I’m going to bet four units on Tampa.



    The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Tom Brady is coming off a loss.


    The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.
    Computer Model: Chiefs -5.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    A lean on the Chiefs.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 62% (6,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 37-9 SU, 28-16 ATS (21-11 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Road Team is 104-63 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
  • Andy Reid is 6-13 ATS two weeks after the bye.
  • Tom Brady is 254-81 as a starter (189-131 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 174-117 against the spread since 2003.
  • Tom Brady is 119-75 ATS in non-divisional games.
  • Tom Brady is 23-12 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
  • Tom Brady is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog.
  • Tom Brady is 11-5 ATS heading into a regular-season bye.
  • Tom Brady is 45-21 ATS off a loss (8-11 ATS as -7 or more; 15-1 ATS as an underdog).
  • Buccaneers are 26-57 ATS at home in the previous 82 instances.
  • Buccaneers are 9-27 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 53.
  • Weather: Clear, 78 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Chiefs 28, Buccaneers 27
    Buccaneers +3.5 -115 (4 Units) – Bovada/BetUS — Correct; +$400
    Under 56 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24




    Chicago Bears (5-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)
    Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 44.

    Sunday, Nov. 29, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

    I’m using this section to promote cool things that the readers of this site and I either enjoy or created.

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    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Bears have injury question marks on both sides of the ball. Here, we need to know if Akiem Hicks will play. Hicks’ absence was enormous in the fourth quarter of the Minnesota affair, as the Bears were suddenly far worse at defending Dalvin Cook than they were with Hicks on the field. This was one of the primary reasons the Vikings were able to squeak out a victory a couple of Monday nights ago.

    Aaron Jones would obviously have a much better performance if Hicks were sidelined, but I like Jones’ ability to get some yardage as a receiver regardless, as he matches up well versus Chicago’s linebackers. Similarly, Davante Adams should do well, despite the tough matchup.

    Aaron Rodgers shoud have more weapons at his disposal, as Allen Lazard will be healthier in his second game back from injury. Lazard is needed, with the Packers struggling to rely on Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who was responsible for last week’s loss with his fumble in overtime.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: The injury question mark for the Bears on this side of the ball is at quarterback. We have no idea who will start for the Bears! The last time we saw Nick Foles, he was carted off with a hip injury. Mitchell Trubisky, meanwhile is week-to-week with his malady. It’s possible that one of these quarterbacks will start at less than 100 percent. There’s also a chance that Tyler Bray may get the nod!

    Either way, this doesn’t bode well for the Bears. The quarterback they start will undoubtedly lock in on Allen Robinson. This is a huge problem because Robinson will have to deal with Jaire Alexander, who has quickly become the top cornerback in the NFL.

    The way to beat the Packers is to gash them with the run, as we saw the Colts do with Jonathan Taylor this past Sunday. This also presents an issue for the Bears, given that David Montgomery is injured. The Bears don’t even have a viable running back, as they’ve resorted to using Cordarrelle Patterson as their primary halfback. This won’t bode well in this contest.

    RECAP: The Bears were the most overrated team in the NFL when they were 5-1. They’ve since been exposed as a fraud, but not enough so. People are looking at their 5-5 record, and they think Chicago is an average team because of that .500 win rate. However, had the Bears lost all of their close games versus bad teams at the beginning of the year – Lions, Giants, Falcons – and they were 3-7 or 2-8 right now, what would this spread be? It would surely be in double digits, which is what it should be.

    The Bears are a disaster. They have injured quarterbacks; their offensive line is banged up; they have no viable running backs; and they have key injuries elsewhere. They’re currently one of the worst teams in the NFL, despite what their record says, so it’ll be shocking if they’re not blown out in this affair.

    There’s no spread posted yet because it’s not clear who Chicago’s starting quarterback will be. I’ll have an exact unit count when we know what the number is. Check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned that there were several injuries for the Bears I was monitoring. Nick Foles missed Wednesday’s practice, but Mitchell Trubisky practiced fully, so it sounds like Trubisky will start. David Montgomery will as well, so the Bears will have a viable running back. It’s not all good news, however, as Akiem Hicks missed Wednesday’s practice. I’m going to be betting the Packers, but the question is how many units.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Mitchell Trubisky will start, but that is trivial compared to what the Bears are dealing with in the trenches. Offensively, they could be without both starting tackles; Bobby Massie is on injured reserve, while Charles Leno missed Thursday and Friday’s practices with a toe injury. Guard James Daniels is out as well. Defensively, the Bears will likely miss several defensive linemen, including Akiem Hicks, who failed to practice all week. Matt Nagy called Hicks and Leno game-time decisions, but even if they play, they may not be 100 percent.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some sharp action has been on the Bears, surprisingly. I don’t know why the pros are betting against Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss, especially considering the Chicago injuries. Perhaps this means that Akiem Hicks and Charles Leno will play.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t know why the sharps are on the Bears, especially in the wake of the inactives list. Charles Leno will play, but Akiem Hicks is out. This is huge because the Bears are far worse without him. The Bears are down multiple players on the offensive and defensive lines, and Aaron Rodgers will be motivated off a loss. I’m betting five units on the Packers, and the best line is -7.5 -103 at Bookmaker.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -8.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -7.5.
    Computer Model: Packers -7.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Green Bay: 51% (4,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • History: Packers have won 11 of the last 13 meetings.
  • Packers are 52-32 ATS in divisional games since 2006.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 104-72 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 32-15 ATS after a loss (11-7 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
  • Opening Line: Packers -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 32 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.



  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Bears 6
    Packers -7.5 -103 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$500
    Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Packers 41, Bears 25




    Seattle Seahawks (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)
    Line: Seahawks by 5.5. Total: 49.5.

    Monday, Nov. 30, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Philadelphia, the greatest city in the world! Tonight, my Philadelphia Eagles take on the Seattle Sonics. Guys, my Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFL, don’t you agree? I agree with me. The standings say we have a bad record, but we should be undefeated right now if it wasn’t for rigged results! All of the scores were rigged, and we really won all the games!

    Emmitt: Ahmaud, I could not disagreement with you more even if I want you to. The Eagle definitely losted those game. I watch all the Eagle game this year, and Carmen Wins not playing good at football right now at these moment.

    Reilly: Wrong! Wrong! Guys, let’s go back to Week 1. We played the Redskins! All the points weren’t tallied correctly! Instead of scoring 17 points we really scored 37 points!

    Tollefson: Kevin, I think you’re being dishonest with yourself. It reminds me of my younger self. One month, I kidnapped eight women to cook and clean naked for me, but I bragged to everyone that I kidnapped 15 women. I knew this was a lie, so I finally admitted it. That just gave me motivation to kidnap 15 women each month instead of eight, and I’ve achieved my goals!

    Reilly: Tolly, that’s impressive that you can talk to 15 women, let alone one. I’m not allowed to yet because at 67, I’m too young. But you’re not understanding what I’m saying. There was proof that cheating happened. In Week 2, the score says we lost to the Rams, 37-19, but I found this memory card that gives us 20 more points!

    Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I’ve heard some talk about memory cards. Memory is the thing where you remember that something happened at some point. Because, something happened and then you remembered it, so that’s how you have a memory about it. Because if something happened, then you can remember it, but if something didn’t happen, then you can’t remember it, unless you thought about it in your head, and then you can remember it but no one else can unless they can read your mind. And card is like a baseball card, so if you have your memory on a card, you have a memory card, and it has value if it’s a rookie memory card. Because rookie cards are worth more, so rookie memory cards are the best memory cards.

    Reilly: Shut up, you Jay Novacek wanna-be! That’s not what memory cards are! Let’s talk about the Steelers-Eagles game in Week 5. People were trying to make sure all the points were counted correctly, but they weren’t!

    Fouts: Kevin, it’s good that I’m rich because I was able to hire someone who made sure I count correctly. I have trouble with this sometimes. I can get to six just fine, but then I sometimes what comes after, so that’s when my professional counter steps in and tells me that the number is- eh- I forget. If only my professional counter were here!

    Wolfley: DAN, I’M A PART-TIME COUNTER, SO I CAN TELL YOU THE ANSWER IS SEVEN. I REMEMBER THAT BECAUSE OF THE JOKE, WHY IS SIX AFRAID OF SEVEN? BECAUSE SEVEN ATE NINE! AND NOW, NINE IS GONE FOREVER, SO WE GO STRAIGHT FROM EIGHT TO TEN!

    Reilly: What are you idiots talking about? Anyway, what happened in the Ravens game? I forget. New Daddy, tell them! You remember me talking to you about the Ravens!

    Cutler: Who? Never heard of you. But the Ravens are good. Who’s their quarterback again? Lamar Eisenhower?

    Reilly: No, New Daddy, how can you never have heard of me!? I’m your stepson!

    Alyssa Milano: Ex-ca-use me! Why did we have to assume gender here!? I don’t think you can say stepson without confirming your pronouns, and I haven’t heard any pronouns! This is transphobic behavior that you would assume your own gender! Now, I have no choice but to call the police even though the police are the devil!

    Reilly: I’m not allowed to speak directly to Alyssa Milano because Mother said no, but can someone please tell her that Mother hasn’t taught me what pronouns are yet? We just learned verbs last week.

    Charles Davis: Sounds like we’re going over parts of speech, Kevin. Let’s talk about nouns, Kevin. Now that we’re done talking about nouns, Kevin, let’s discuss adjectives, Kevin. How about verbs, Kevin, even though you already mentioned verbs, Kevin? Let’s quickly get to adverbs, Kevin. How about we dabble into conjunctions, Kevin? How about pronouns, Kevin? Let’s not forget prepositions, Kevin. That leaves just one more part of speech, Kevin. Can you guess what that is, Kevin?

    Reilly: WHAT!? NO, A**HOLE, YOU’RE MAKING ME LOOK STUPID ON NATIONAL TV BECAUSE WE HAVEN’T GOTTEN TO THOSE LESSONS YET! AND NOW YOU’VE DISTRACTED ME FROM CHALLENGING MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES’ RESULTS BECAUSE YOU HATE MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, SO I HATE YOU!!! We’ll be back after this!

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: There was question about Russell Wilson’s mental status heading into the Thursday game. Wilson appeared checked out the previous week, as he made some uncharacteristic blunders in the past two games. Despite having just three days off in between games, Wilson was incredibly sharp, as he sliced through Arizona’s secondary with ease.

    If Wilson was able to do that against the Cardinals, he’ll handle the Eagles very easily. Barely anyone in the NFL can cover D.K. Metcalf, and the Eagles don’t have anyone capable of doing that. Tyler Lockett will also get open against the lesser Eagle corners. Wilson’s pass protection figures to be better this week as well, much like it was versus Arizona.

    The Eagles are at least stout against the run, but their linebackers can easily be beaten in coverage. I imagine Wilson will use this to his advantage by getting his running backs and his many tight ends in space.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Unlike Wilson, Carson Wentz hasn’t recovered from his most recent swoon. Wentz has regressed at an alarming rate this year. He’s making odd mistakes, and he’s failing to see the field correctly. It sometimes seems like he’s never played football before. It’s greatly disturbing, and it’s fair to wonder if Wentz has fallen out of love with football.

    The data suggests that this is an easy matchup for Wentz, but that may not be the case. The secondary might be better this week if the Seahawks get one of their missing corners back from injury after an extended time period. Also, Jamal Adams should continue to improve. Adams was lackluster when he returned from injury, but looked like he was in better shape in the most recent game. Furthermore, Carlos Dunlap has bolstered the previously poor pass rush, so he could force Wentz into more errors.

    The Eagles should be able to get something out of their offense with Miles Sanders, assuming they don’t forget about him again. The Eagles had nice success running with Sanders on the opening drive against Cleveland, but barely gave him any touches after that for some reason. Perhaps it had something to do with his red zone fumble, and if so, that’s a terrible reason.

    RECAP: I can’t back the Eagles anymore. I trusted them against the Browns, but Wentz imploded miserably. He has shown no signs of life, and he deserves to be benched at this point. I don’t see why he would suddenly play better against a Seattle defense that figures to improve with some reinforcements.

    I like getting the Seahawks here with extra time to prepare. They don’t even need any help, but the extra few days will give them an advantage they didn’t require against the miserable Eagles.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Neither team has practiced yet, but I’m looking forward to seeing if the Seahawks will be any healthier with extra time off from their previous game.

    SATURDAY NOTES: When the Seahawks lost to the Rams in Week 10, they didn’t have K.J. Wright or their top two cornerbacks. They’ll have Wright and Shaq Griffin on the field Monday night, which is huge. Meanwhile, the Eagles will be missing two offensive linemen, which the Seahawks should be able to take advantage of with an improved pass rush, thanks to Carlos Dunlap. I’m going to bet four units on the Seahawks, and I’m going to lock in the -5.5 -110 at BetUS now because this spread is inching closer to -6 (already -6 at Bovada.)

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad I locked in the Seahawks. This spread has risen to -6, and it might be trending higher, based on the vig. If you haven’t locked in Seattle yet, make sure you do so now before the -6s disappear!

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing on the inactives list has changed my mind about this game. The sharps haven’t been touching the Eagles either after betting Seattle at -5.5. The Seahawks should be able to dominate this game, though a back-door score will be possible. I’d still bet four units at -6.5 -105, which is the best line I see (at BetUS.)



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -5.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.
    Computer Model: Seahawks -5.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    Tons of action on the Seahawks, predictably.

    Percentage of money on Seattle: 69% (4,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Seahawks are 33-18 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.
  • Russell Wilson is 20-10 ATS in night games.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 53.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Eagles 17
    Seahawks -5.5 (4 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$400
    Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Seahawks 23, Eagles 17




    Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0)
    Line: Ravens by 10. Total: 41.5.

    Tuesday, Dec. 1, 8:00 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

    VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season and 21-25 heading into Week 11.

    Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

  • Chiefs -7
  • Patriots -2.5


  • The highest-bet teams went 0-2 in what was a huge day for the books.

    Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

  • Seahawks -5.5
  • Packers -7.5
  • Titans +4
  • Raiders -3


  • Seattle, Green Bay and Las Vegas action is predictable. Tennessee was not, but I guess the public is impressed by the Titans’ win over the Ravens.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: There was no spread posted on this game in the majority of sportsbooks as of Monday night, though that changed Tuesday morning. This was because a couple of Baltimore players tested positive for a minor illness, so there’s a chance this could spread among the locker room. It’s puzzling why these players can’t suit up, given that we all know now how trivial this minor illness is for those who aren’t old or sick.

    The players in question are J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram. Both are largely irrelevant for this game because Gus Edwards can do a decent job handling the workload. Edwards would do well in most matchups, but not this one. The Steelers have a stellar front seven, however, so they’ll be able to limit Edwards well, which will force Lamar Jackson to beat them.

    This is a major problem for Baltimore. Things have changed greatly from a year ago when Jackson was the MVP. Now, Jackson is performing very poorly, missing throws and making lots of mistakes. The issue is the offensive line. Jackson had the best protection in the NFL in 2019, but the blocking group lost Marshal Yanda and Ronnie Stanley since. Jackson has been far worse since Stanley suffered an injury against Pittsburgh, and it’s difficult to imagine things getting much better on a short week versus the Steelers’ great defensive front.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers would also have a difficult matchup against the Ravens’ terrific defensive front under normal circumstances. However, things have changed in this regard as well; Baltimore’s defensive line has been ravaged by injuries lately, as Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams have missed the past two games.

    This has fundamentally changed the Ravens’ usually stout defense. The Ravens have been great versus the run with either player on the field, but they’ve been gashed by opposing backs since. Both Campbell and Williams were doubtful heading into the Tennessee contest, so their chances of playing on short rest is slim. It’s possible at least one could be back, but even if that’s the case, they may not be 100 percent.

    With that in mind, James Conner should run well, opening up some nice passing opportunities for Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens still have some great talent in their secondary, but the Steelers will be able to counter with their dynamic receiving threats.

    RECAP: It would be a challenge to determine the winner of this game if both teams were on equal footing, but that’s not the case. The Ravens have so many injuries that it might make it difficult for them to keep pace with the Steelers, especially when considering that the Ravens haven’t had any time to make adjustments.

    Thursday games benefit the superior squad greatly, and there’s no question that the Steelers are better than the Ravens at the moment. I’ll be betting the Steelers, but the unit count will depend on the status of the injured Baltimore players.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This game has been moved to Sunday for some reason. It should have been played Thursday night, and the Steelers are pissed, which will provide added incentive for them. The Ravens, meanwhile, sound like they’ll be without Calaias Campbell and Brandon Williams, who have been put on the Fauxvid list.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It’s not yet clear why the NFL keeps moving this game. It will be played on Tuesday, apparently. At any rate, awaiting injury report…

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We still have to sift through who will be out for the Ravens, but the Steelers are looking appealing at -10. I may lock this in once I have time Monday morning.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I waited until this time to post my final thoughts because I wanted to make sure we knew who would be playing in this game. The Ravens will be down Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, three offensive linemen, the top two run-stoppers and two edge rushers. Good luck! The Steelers won’t have two offensive linemen because Maurkice Pouncey is sidelined, but they’re otherwise healthy. This would be a larger play if Pouncey weren’t out, but I’m going with two units on the Steelers. The best line is at Bookmaker (-10 -113).



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -6.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.5.
    Computer Model: Steelers -5.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    Some money coming in on the Steelers.

    Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 65% (15,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Home Team has won 25 of the last 39 meetings.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 53-31 ATS vs. the AFC North.
  • Mike Tomlin is 9-22 ATS as a favorite after a win of 14+ in the regular season unless a bye is coming up.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -3.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: .



  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Ravens 7
    Steelers -10 -113 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$225
    Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Steelers 19, Ravens 14






    week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Texans at Lions, Redskins at Cowboys, Raiders at Falcons, Chargers at Bills, Giants at Bengals, Titans at Colts, Panthers at Vikings, Cardinals at Patriots, Dolphins at Jets, Browns at Jaguars




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games



    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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