NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2020

New York Jets (0-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Line: Dolphins by 8.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Oct. 18, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was reported today that the Jets are seeking to trade Le’Veon Bell. I’ll break down where Bell could possibly go after I’m done posting these picks, but it should surprise no one that New York is on the verge of trading its best offensive player. Adam Gase has no idea how to use someone as talented as Bell.

If Bell is dealt before this game, it’ll be the Frank Gore show once again, meaning the Jets won’t have any running game to speak of. They also won’t have a dynamic receiver out of the backfield, though it’s not like they were using Bell in that regard anyway. Most coaches would have Bell catching lots of passes, but Gase’s offense is too sophisticated for that.

The Jets’ quarterback, whether it’s Sam Darnold or Joe Flacco, will only be able to throw to Jamison Crowder once again. We’ll see if the Dolphins put one of their talented outside receivers on Crowder in an attempt to completely limit New York’s offense.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Ryan Fitzpatrick was electric in last week’s game, torching the 49ers mercilessly. This was hardly a surprise, as San Francisco was down four cornerbacks entering the contest. The Jets don’t have the same sort of injuries as the 49ers, but they have more incompetence. Their corners are terrible and can’t cover anyone, so DeVante Parker and company should thrive.

It would help the Jets’ secondary if they had a pass rush capable of rattling Fitzpatrick. That’s not the case, as they don’t have anyone who can get to the quarterback, excluding John Franklin-Myers. He won’t be enough to throw a red-hot Fitzpatrick off his game.

The Jets are better against the run than the pass, but it’s not like the Dolphins have much of a ground attack anyway. Myles Gaskin will have better luck as a receiver out of the backfield anyway.

RECAP: I’m not betting the Jets. I’m not picking the Jets. They are the worst team in the NFL by far, and they’ve yet to cover te spread this year. I don’t think that’ll change this week, especially given the Bell trade distraction.

I will be betting the Dolphins, a team I called extremely underrated last week. Miami’s three losses have been to the Seahawks, Bills and Patriots, who are a combined 11-2 at the moment, while the wins were both blowout victories against the Jaguars and 49ers. The Jets are even worse than those squads. Despite all of this, the Dolphins aren’t favored by enough. Both the computer model and I have this line in double digits.

The unit count on this game will depend on the injuries. If the Jets continue to miss key personnel, this could be a big wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line rose from -8 to -9.5 or -10 because of the announcement that Joe Flacco will start over Sam Darnold. Imagine being Flacco and learning that you’re two points worse than Sam Darnold. That must be depressing.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets have gotten rid of Le’Veon Bell since the last time I wrote about this game. I like the Dolphins to cover, but I worry about them being either tired or flat after a big win at San Francisco and a flight home from the West Coast. They should still beat the number, but it’s not an ideal spot.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Kyle Van Noy is expected to be sidelined, which will put me off the Dolphins completely.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyle Van Noy is out, as expected. I’m not going to bet this game, but if you do, the Jets are -8.5 -105 at Bovada.

Green Bay Packers (4-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Line: Packers by 1.5. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Oct. 18, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 is underway! Congress has a secret meeting in the wake of Emmitt returning to America after being exiled to the North.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I’ve discussed No. 1 receivers being out of the lineup. The Packers have been without Davante Adams, but they’ve covered, unlike the other teams. That may have to do with the fact that they’ve played other teams missing receivers: the Saints (Michael Thomas) and Falcons (Julio Jones). Plus, Aaron Rodgers is playing on a ridiculous level this year.

Thanks to the bye week, Adams is expected to return to the lineup against the Buccaneers. He should thrive in this matchup, as the Buccaneers don’t have the cornerbacks to stick with him. There’s a chance Allen Lazard could play as well, meaning Rodgers will have his entire supporting cast at his disposal. This also includes emerging tight end Robert Tonyan, who has a great matchup against a defense that struggles to cover the position.

Not every Packer is expected to have a great performance, however. Aaron Jones figures to be stymied by a stellar run defense. Granted, the Buccaneers will be missing Vita Vea, but the rest of their defensive line is excellent.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Packers aren’t the only team that will have its receiving corps intact for the first time in weeks. The same could be said of the Buccaneers, who actually haven’t had a healthy Chris Godwin and Mike Evans on the field together for a full game this entire year. There’s a chance that could finally happen, with the Buccaneers coming off extra rest.

I’m sure Tom Brady would love to throw to both Godwin and Evans. He’ll need both on the field because the Packers have an elite cornerback in Jaire Alexander, who completely blanked Calvin Ridley in Week 4.

Brady will also be able to utilize a couple of other players as weapons, namely his running backs. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette should have success as receivers out of the backfield versus a Packer linebacking corps that struggles to cover.

RECAP: I love the line value we’re getting with the Buccaneers in this game. Tampa Bay -3 was the advance line, and now the Packers are favored because the Buccaneers blew a lead against the Bears on Thursday night. Tampa Bay didn’t have a single healthy receiver of note in that game, as Godwin was out, while Evans and Scotty Miller were limping on and off the field. With a week-and-a-half of rest, the Buccaneers should be much healthier heading into this contest.

Assuming this is the case, I’m going to be betting on Tampa. It’s tough to go against Rodgers, but I love the idea of wagering on Brady after a loss, especially in the role of an underdog. Brady, in general, is 43-21 against the spread off a loss. However, as an underdog following a defeat, Brady is 14-1 against the spread in his career! The sole loss was in Brady’s second season when he lost to the Dolphins, a team that gave him trouble in Miami in his early years.

Add in the fact that the public is pounding the Packers, and the Buccaneers seem like a great play, as long as they have a healthy receiving corps. We’ll see if that ends up being the case.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have dropped this line to a pick ’em. That makes me more confident in the Buccaneers. Another bullish indicator on Tampa: DVOA thinks the Buccaneers should be favored by 3.5!

SATURDAY NOTES: All three receivers will be on the field at or near 100 percent, which is exciting. This should be a great game, though I’m going to side with the Buccaneers because I love getting Tom Brady off a loss, especially as an underdog. The sharps have been on the Buccaneers as well.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The pros were betting the Buccaneers early in the week, but there has since been some sharp money on the Packers. It looks like the smart money is torn on this game. I like Tom Brady coming off a loss, but the late money on the Packers is a bit worrying. I’m going to drop this unit count to two.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The late sharps continued to bet up the Packers to -2.5, though the line hasn’t quite hit -3 in most places. It did, however, reach that number at BetUS for a few minutes. It was +3 -120, but that’s no longer available. With no +3, I’d be interested in selling points. I’d go with the +1.5 +100 at Bookmaker.

Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
Line: Rams by 2.5. Total: 51.
Sunday, Oct. 18, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Jerks of the Jersey Shore, 2020.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It’s safe to say I didn’t anticipate Jimmy Garoppolo struggling so much when I decided not to make the Dolphins my October NFL Pick of the Month. I was considering it until learning Garoppolo would start over C.J. Beathard. I expected Garoppolo to be a big upgrade, but that was hardly the case. He was so bad, the 49ers decided to bench him at halftime in an attempt to “protect” him.

Garoppolo can only get better with another week of rest. There’s a decent chance we’ll see him improve this week, though the matchup is a difficult one. The 49ers have struggled to protect this year, which spells trouble against Aaron Donald and company. Meanwhile, Jalen Ramsey will be erasing half the field.

The 49ers, however, have an opportunity for some success offensively. George Kittle has a great matchup against a linebacking corps that has regressed this year, while Raheem Mostert should be able to generate some nice chunks whenever carrying the ball.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Rams have some advantages on defense, their greatest edge is on this side of the ball. The 49ers’ secondary is a mess. They are down four cornerbacks. This proved to be a huge issue when Ryan Fitzpatrick torched them mercilessly. I don’t trust Jared Goff as much as Ryan Fitzpatrick – seriously – but Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp shouldn’t have any sort of issues getting open.

I am not a big Goff guy because he needs great coaching and even better protection to succeed. This wouldn’t have been possible against the 49ers last year, but San Francisco has been missing its top edge rushers. Goff will have way better blocking than he enjoyed in these matchups last year. He’ll be able to have enough time in the pocket to dissect the 49ers’ injury-ravaged secondary with his talented receivers.

I wouldn’t expect much out of the Rams’ running game, as the middle of the 49ers’ defense is still intact. Still, the Rams shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains.

RECAP: We’ll see if the 49ers can get any reinforcements for this game. If they can, we’ll have great value with San Francisco. The 49ers were -3 on the advance line, yet the spread shifted 6.5 points because of all the injuries. However, if the 49ers are far less banged up in this contest, the thesis of them being far worse than the Rams will be incorrect.

Conversely, if the 49ers continue to miss most of their players, including chunks of talent at certain positions, it’ll be very difficult for the 49ers to keep up with the Rams.

My pick will be dictated by the injury report, as this could be a multi-unit selection either way. I’m going to pencil in the Rams for now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The injury report will be extremely important for determining this game because the 49ers were down four cornerbacks and three edge rushers last week. I see the argument for playing the value, but sometimes, value is meaningless.

SATURDAY NOTES: Things are looking up for the 49ers. Instead of missing four of their top five cornerbacks, they’re missing three of their top five corners! Unfortunately for them, linebacker Kwon Alexander will also be sidelined. This is a tough spot for the 49ers’ defense going up against the Rams and their talented receivers. It looks like there’s some sharp money on the 49ers, but then again, CRIS, one of the sharper books, seems to want money on San Francisco.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps love the 49ers. In fact, this spread has fallen to +2.5. I can’t say I understand why, given all of the 49ers’ injuries. I get that the Rams are overrated, but I don’t think the 49ers are in a situation where they can be competitive yet, but we’ll see.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The amount of sharp money on the 49ers worries me, but I’m sticking with a three-unit bet on the Rams. The 49ers just have so many injuries, and I think Los Angeles should take advantage of them. The best line I’ve found is -2.5 -105 at FanDuel.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) at Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Line: Chiefs by 5. Total: 57.
Monday, Oct. 19, 5:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It was bizarre to see Patrick Mahomes running around like a chicken with its head cut off last week, but that’s how he played following intermission. Under heavy duress throughout the second half, Mahomes had to elude a normally pedestrian Raider pass rush, just to be able to contort his body in an attempt to make a quality throw. Kansas City scored just eight points after halftime.

Part of this may have been the Chiefs looking ahead to this game, but they were also hurt by an injury to guard Kelechi Osemele. Replacing former starting guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Osemele had done a good job as one of the starting guards. His replacement, Mike Remmers, was atrocious. I don’t trust him at all to block some of the talented Buffalo defensive linemen.

There is good news for the Chiefs’ offense, however, and that would be the absence of Matt Milano. The talented linebacker will be missed. The last time he was out, Matt Gesicki ripped right through the middle of the defense in Week 2.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen has made huge strides this year. The Buffalo scoring unit has been explosive, thanks to the great plays Allen has made, and most of them haven’t involved his legs. In fact, he barely ran at all in the victory over the Raiders in Week 4.

Allen has done a great job of developing his game, and it’s also helped that he now has Stefon Diggs at his disposal. The former Viking has been as good as advertised for his new team, and the Chiefs don’t have anyone who can stick with him, as evidenced by what occurred last week when the Chiefs were torched for huge gains by Henry Ruggs and Nelson Agholor.

Allen is also well protected, so it’ll be difficult for the Chiefs to slow him down. His rushing ability, if needed, as well as his running backs figure to do well against the mediocre Kansas City linebackers.

RECAP: This spread would be accurate if one of the following were true: The Chiefs didn’t have offensive line issues at the moment in the wake of Osemele’s injury, or Allen hasn’t made huge strides to become of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

It seems as though this line is based on old news, and it’s something we can take advantage of to our benefit. Milano not playing could be a problem, but I like the advantage the Bills have with their defensive line. They won’t need to blitz Mahomes with their front, especially with Osemele sidelined.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bills were so banged up Tuesday night. They were down their top two cornerbacks, best linebacker and John Brown. We’ll see if any of them return. I will be betting the Chiefs if Buffalo is just as banged up as it was Tuesday night.

SATURDAY NOTES: Buffalo’s final injury report is a complicated one. Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano are the major names on it. White is questionable, but practiced fully Friday and Saturday, so he should be ready to go. Milano is also questionable and practiced fully Friday, but he was downgraded to a limited practice Saturday, which is worrying. I still don’t know where I’m going with this pick, so we’ll have to wait until the inactives list is released Monday afternoon.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: As mentioned Saturday, the inactives list will be enormous. There’s been a bit of sharp money on the Chiefs, but that could be phantom movement in an attempt to get a great number on the Bills. We’ll see.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was really hoping for Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White to be back for Buffalo, as it would give us some nice line value with a home underdog. However, Milano is sidelined, meaning the Bills will be very weak over the middle of the field again. Travis Kelce, as a result, will have a huge game. The same can be said of Patrick Mahomes, who will be looking to rebound off a loss. Also, Andy Reid has had two more days to prepare for this game than Sean McDermott, which is a big edge. I’m not going to bet this game because of the lacking line value, but if you do, the best line I see is -5.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
Line: Cardinals by 1. Total: 55.5.
Monday, Oct. 19, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Dallas, where my sworn enemies of my Philadelphia Eagles, the Dallas stinkin’ Cowboys take on the Phoenix Cardinals. Guys, when I was watching the Vice Presidential Debate between Mike Pants and Cruella DeVille, I noticed that a fly landed on Mike Pants’ head. I then got a great idea to defeat the Cowboys once and for all. Can anyone guess what it is?

Emmitt: Taylor, a fly a type of bug animal like mosquito, bumble buzz and dolphin. Maybe you try to bug the Cowboy so much that he quit football and he go into retirementing. Because when people say you bug someone, it mean you annoy him because you put bug down his pants.

Reilly: Emmitt, the thought occurred to me to put bugs down Ezekiel Elliott’s pants, but I didn’t want anyone excusing me of being gay because the neighborhood bully does that, and I didn’t want to add fuel to his fire. Anyone have any other ideas?

Tollefson: Kevin, when I want revenge on one of my rivals, I make sure to break into his house and find the room where he holds his sex slaves. Then, I make sure to give the women crabs so that when he forces them into sex with him, he gets crabs. It’s perfect with no repercussions for anyone except my rival!

Reilly: Tolly, you know as well as I do that Mother won’t let me have any pet crabs, and she won’t let me eat crabs either because the shells are too sharp. Guys, here’s what I’m going to do: I’ve genetically engineered a fly to land on the Cowboy players to suck their brains out of them. They’ll be brain-dead in no time. What do you guys think?

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I’ve heard that we’re talking about flies. You see, when you have flies, you have insects. Because insects are flies. Unless you’re talking about flies as in someone flying in the air. That’s not an insect because it has to do with someone flying and not the fly bugs, even though fly bugs fly in the air, which is a coincidence. Because, a fly actually flies in the air, but it is also a fly like the insect. When you have both, you can only have one, unless there’s a fly on the plane with you when you’re flying. Because that’s when it would be different when having both.

Reilly: Shut up, idiot! You’re lucky I’m not having one of my flies suck your brains out, you former Cowboy scum!

Fouts: Kevin, when you’re talking about sucking your brains out, it makes me wonder why you can’t suck your brain in. Everyone has a brain, but what if you want a big brain? You can find a dead guy, take his brain, and then suck it into your head. This is the opposite of sucking out your brain, which is something you don’t need a dead guy for.

Wolfley: DAN, IF YOU WERE ON MY PLANET, YOU WOULD HAVE SUCKED IN SOME BRAINS ALREADY. WHEN THERE’S A FULLBACK AND HE GETS A GREAT BLOCK, HE SUCKS IN SOME BRAINS OF THE OPPONENT, ESPECIALLY IF THAT OPPONENT IS A PAPERCLIP WITH EYEBALLS!

Reilly: Guys, can we talk about how I’m going to destroy the Cowboys with my great plan? New daddy, tell them! Tell them that I’m going to destroy the Cowboys!

Cutler: Cowboys? When are they playing next?

Reilly: New Daddy, they’re playing tonight! You should know that because you’re broadcasting the game! Alyssa Milano, what do you think about my fly plan?

Alyssa Milano: You know who is basically a fly? All cops! Because they’re evil! Hiss! Oh no, a fly is attacking me! Please, someone call 9-1-1!!!

Reilly: Oh no, my sweet Alyssa Milano! My genetically engineered fly escaped! I’ll protect you, my sweet!

Charles Davis: Kevin, while this fly is flying around trying to kill us, let’s discuss more insects, Kevin. Let’s talk about mosquitoes, Kevin. Those are some fierce blood-suckers, Kevin! What about bumble buzz, Kevin? I mean bumble bees, Kevin. Emmitt confused me, Kevin. How about dolphins, Kevin? Emmitt said dolphins are insects, so it must be true, Kevin. Let’s get to talking about cockroaches, Kevin. What do you think about Kevin Reilly, Kevin? Kevin Reilly is clearly an instinct, Kevin!

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I’D GET MY REVENGE ON YOUR RIGHT NOW, BUT I HAVE TO CATCH THIS KILLER FLY BECAUSE IT KILLS PEOPLE OTHER THAN THE COWBOYS! We’ll be back after this!

DALLAS OFFENSE: What a huge blow for the Cowboys. They were a bad team, but they had a good chance to win the NFC East with Dak Prescott. That’ll obviously be much more difficult with Andy Dalton at the helm. Dalton was once a quarterback who was able to get a great roster to the playoffs, but he’s no longer of that caliber, and Dallas doesn’t have a good roster anyway.

The only thing going for the Cowboys are their play-makers. Ezekiel Elliott should have another stellar performance against the Cardinals, while Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup have nice matchups against Arizona cornerbacks not named Patrick Peterson. That said, Arizona will be getting back starting safety Chris Banjo, in all likelihood, which is important because they saw Teddy Bridgewater torch the team when Banjo and fellow safety Budda Baker were sidelined.

The Cardinals need the upgrade in coverage because of Chandler Jones’ injury. Jones tore his biceps last week, which is a huge loss. If Devon Kennard is sidelined again, Arizona won’t have anyone to take advantage of Dallas’ injury-ravaged offensive line.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals will need to abuse the Dallas liabilities on this side of the ball instead. There are plenty of them, one of which is the secondary. Over the past couple of weeks, the Cowboys have surrendered huge performances to opposing No. 1 receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Darius Slayton.

With that in mind, how are the Cowboys going to stop DeAnre Hopkins, who is better than both Beckham and Slayton? Pressuring Kyler Murray would be the only option, but Dallas doesn’t have a great pass rush outside of DeMarcus Lawrence. Murray’s offensive line is also healthy, so the nimble quarterback should get the protection he needs against Dallas.

Murray will also be able to abuse the Dallas linebacking corps, which is missing two starters. The Cowboys won’t be able to contain Murray when he scrambles, and they’ll also have trouble with Chase Edmonds, who is becoming a greater part of the passing offense each week.

RECAP: This spread has adjusted six points from the advance line. This, of course, is a reaction to the Prescott injury. Yet, it’s still not a vast enough line move. The Cowboys were already one of the worst teams in the NFL, and now they downgraded Prescott to Dalton. Unless they suddenly get back some players unexpectedly, the Cardinals should be able to win this game rather easily.

That said, I have two concerns with betting the Cowboys, outside of the betting action: One, if Kennard is out, the Cardinals won’t have any sort of pass rush to speak of, which would prevent them from taking advantage of the injuries on Dallas’ offensive line. Two, there could be an emotional component to this game for the Cowboys. This could be a “win one for Dak” rallying cry. With that in mind, I probably won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Is there a chance the Cardinals look ahead? I know it’s odd to say of any non-large favorite playing on Monday night, but Arizona may not take Andy Dalton seriously, so the team could be glancing ahead to next week’s game against the Cowboys.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some major news that left tackle D.J. Humphries was listed as questionable with a back injury after being limited in Saturday’s practice. There’s nothing else known about Humphries at the moment, but if he misses this game, Arizona will suddenly be down two offensive linemen (J.R. Sweezy was just placed on injured reserve), and potentially two edge rushers if Devon Kennard can’t return. Kennard is listed as questionable after being limited in practice all week. As with the Chiefs-Bills game, we’ll have to wait until the inactives list to really know how to bet this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m really kicking myself because I didn’t use the Cowboys in the Supercontest. I had Leighton Vander Esch as out for the year in my spreadsheet for some reason, but he’s due back this week. Had I known this, I would have been much higher on Dallas. Luckily, we can still bet the Cowboys. The unit count will depend on the injuries I discussed Saturday, but I’m definitely changing my pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cardinals don’t have any of the inactives I was looking for, as Devon Kennard and D.J. Humphries are both active. I like the Cowboys tonight. This is an emotional game for them, and with Leighton Vander Esch returning, their defense will be much better. However, I really wanted at least one of Kennard or Humphries to be sidelined. This would’ve been a big play for me if that were the case. Instead, I’ll wager two units on Dallas -1 -108 at Bookmaker.