NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2020

Washington Redskins (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (1-0)
Line: Cardinals by 7. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: That was some win by the Cardinals in San Francisco last week! I thought they might keep it close, but I was not expecting the outright upset. And yet, they managed to get it done with some late-game heroics from Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. It’s truly amazing what having a top-five receiver on a roster can do to an offense. Amazingly, Bill O’Brien wasn’t aware of that when he traded Hopkins.

I thought an unheralded aspect of the Cardinals’ victory was the play of their offensive line. This has been a big problem area for the team over the years, including last season when Murray was constantly under siege. The blocking unit held up well versus the 49ers, however, which bodes well for this matchup. The Redskins also have one of the elite defensive fronts in the NFL, as evidenced by their eight-sack performance against the Eagles in Week 1. The Cardinals would be in trouble if they had last year’s offensive line, but that’s not the case.

While the Redskins generate tremendous pressure, they also struggle to cover. Their linebacking corps is an abomination, as the two talented Philadelphia tight ends took advantage of this liability last week. I imagine Kliff Kingsbury will scheme his running backs to abuse these linebackers as well if Thomas Davis misses another game.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: This unit looked pitiful at the beginning of last week’s game. The team could barely generate any first downs, as the offensive line struggled to protect Dwayne Haskins and open up running lanes for the pedestrian running backs. The Redskins eventually got into a rhythm as the afternoon progressed, but it’s not like they had an overly difficult matchup, considering the state of the Eagles’ linebackers and defensive backfield.

The Cardinals were woeful when covering the middle of the field last year, but that should change with Isaiah Simmons on the roster. Simmons didn’t have the best debut, but he’ll be better against Washington’s worse personnel. Meanwhile, Patrick Peterson figures to do a great job shutting down the Redskins’ top receiver, Terry McLaurin.

With McLaurin smothered, Haskins will have to look elsewhere. He won’t have much time to scan the field, as Chandler Jones and Devon Kennard will be harassing him behind his shaky offensive line.

RECAP: If the Redskins weren’t battling a team with three missing starting offensive linemen last week and didn’t pull off a big upset as a result, how high would this spread be, considering that Arizona went into San Francisco and defeated the defending NFC champions? I think this line would be at least -8, if not pushing toward -10. However, the Redskins’ upset over the Eagles has prevented this spread from soaring.

The Redskins had a nice win over the Eagles, but it was a byproduct of Philadelphia’s injuries. Conversely, what the Cardinals did was legitimate. They’re a borderline top-10 NFL team, so they should have no issues with the woeful Redskins at home.

I’m definitely going to be on Arizona, but the question is for how many units. That depends on the injury report, as another Thomas Davis absence would help send this to the 3-4 unit range.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We have confirmation of sharp action, as the Cardinals have moved from -6.5 to -7. I can’t say I’m surprised, based on what I wrote on Tuesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cardinals center Mason Cole is out, which is not ideal. Arizona should be able to survive the Redskins’ stellar defensive line without one blocker. Still, I’m going to decrease the unit count.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is rising, so this line might be -7.5 by kickoff. I don’t think we’re waiting on an important injury, so I’ll hop on and lock in Arizona -7 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line never made it to -7.5, but the vig is higher than -110 in most places. The best number I can find is -7 -109 at Bookmaker.

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Houston Texans (0-1)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 is underway! What is life like now for Emmitt, who has been exiled to the north after his giant goose burned all NFL fans last year?

HOUSTON OFFENSE: In my previous pick capsule, I discussed how stupid Bill O’Brien was for trading away DeAndre Hopkins. It truly was one of the most boneheaded moves we’ve seen from a general manager in this era of football. O’Brien had arguably the best player at his position in the entire league, playing in his prime, and yet O’Brien traded that player away for a second-round pick and a decrepit running back. Wow.

The Texans were so limited offensively without Hopkins. Will Fuller is an excellent No. 2, but he couldn’t carry the offense as the primary target. He posted some great numbers, but only did so in garbage time. Fuller will face an even tougher challenge in this game, as Baltimore has one of the elite secondaries in the NFL. Deshaun Watson was 18-of-29 for 169 yards and an interception against the Ravens last year, and that was when he had Hopkins at his disposal!

O’Brien might have some success getting David Johnson into space against the Baltimore linebackers, but it doesn’t seem like the Texans will be able to consistently sustain too many drives.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson dominated the Browns, and he barely used his legs. He scrambled “only” seven times, opting to torch the Browns with his arm. It helped that the Browns were down two of their top three cornerbacks, but Jackson was excellent regardless, as it’s apparent that his hard work this offseason has been paying dividends.

Jackson has another easy matchup, as the Texans have issues all over their defense, save for linebacker. Their secondary, missing Gareon Conley, didn’t stand a chance against Patrick Mahomes in the opener, and it will likely struggle to cover Marquise Brown. Jackson went 17-of-24 for 222 yards and four touchdowns in this matchup last year.

The Texans were at least stout in run support this past season, but that’s no longer the case. Monstrous nose tackle D.J. Reader is no longer on the roster, which allowed Clyde Edwards-Helaire to have a stunning debut. Perhaps J.K. Dobbins will have some great gains as well on higher volume this week.

RECAP: The Ravens are the far better team. There’s no doubt about that. If you plan on wagering on them, like nearly 90 percent of bettors are doing this week, I have two questions:

1. Do the Ravens deserve to be favored by a touchdown on the road against a team that’s not terrible? The Texans were thoroughly embarrassed in the opener, but I don’t think they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’ve also had more time to prepare for this game, so that should help them be more competitive. My calculations say Baltimore -5 is the right spread, so we’re getting decent line value.

2. How focused will the Ravens be? They have to battle the Chiefs next Monday night, so they could be looking past a team they throttled last year. The Texans, meanwhile, will be looking to redeem themselves from that opening-night disaster and also get revenge for last year’s embarrassing loss. Of all the teams this week, the Ravens have the worst motivational angle.

The Texans, based on motivation, line value and Vegas betting action, should be one of the highest wagers of the week. That said, I don’t know if I can pull the trigger because the Texans might just be demoralized after losing Hopkins. I can tell you for a fact that the players in the locker room truly hate Bill O’Brien, so this team could implode.

I’m going with a two-unit wager for now. I’ll think on it, and if I gain more confidence as the week progresses, I may increase my bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Everyone on the Week 2 picks video…



…said I was crazy for picking the Texans, but I think they’re right side. I wouldn’t bet them heavily, but I think this line is inflated, and Baltimore could be looking ahead.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no injuries of note, so I feel the same way about this game. I think a low wager on the Texans is correct.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Here’s another line that could rise, but we don’t mind that because we’re on the underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action holding down this line, which has risen to -7.5 in most places. I still like the Texans a bit, and I’m going to bet two units on the +7.5 -110 at Bovada.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)
Line: Chiefs by 8.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Giant Bean Stock Lady. It includes one of the most bizarre conversations I’ve ever had in my life!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chargers had a tremendous advantage over the Bengals last week, as their potent pass rush was battling one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The fact that they didn’t crush Cincinnati doesn’t bode well for their chances this season, and you could say the same thing about their odds of being competitive in this game.

The Chiefs don’t have a great offensive line, or anything, but their blocking is so much better than Cincinnati’s. Kansas City also doesn’t have a raw, rookie quarterback at the helm. Patrick Mahomes is as dangerous as ever now that he has a dynamic threat with him in the backfield. Remember, for most of the 2019 regular season, either Mahomes was banged up, or Tyreek Hill was out of the lineup. Kansas City has the potential to post some otherworldly numbers this year, even against tougher competition like the Chargers.

While Mahomes should do well, the star for the Chiefs could end up being Edwards-Helaire. The Chargers aren’t as good against the run, and they lost a linebacker to a season-ending injury. Edwards-Helaire is a terrific talent, so he figures to have another spectacular showing.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I mentioned earlier that the Chiefs had offensive injury woes last year that prevented them from reaching their full potential until late in the year. The same thing occurred on this side of the ball, as Chris Jones wasn’t in the lineup for several weeks. Jones is one of the top defensive players in the NFL, so it was no surprise that the Chiefs’ stop unit improved dramatically when he returned to the field.

Jones will be here to dominate the Chargers, and he’ll be extra potent depending on the injury situation. The Chargers were missing two starting offensive linemen last week, so if Mike Pouncey and Trai Turner are out again, Jones will feast on Tyrod Taylor, who was mediocre last week.

Speaking of Taylor, I was surprised he didn’t do much scrambling in Week 1. He’ll need to do that against the Chiefs if he wants any hope of keeping pace in this contest.

RECAP: I can understand the case for betting the Chargers. The advance line was -6.5, so there’s good spread value with the home dog. Kansas City also has to battle the Ravens next Monday night, so the team could be looking ahead. Plus, look at the betting action. Everyone is betting the Chiefs!

Despite this, I’m picking Kansas City. I just don’t think the Chargers can remain competitive with the Chiefs with Taylor at quarterback, especially if two starting offensive linemen are out again. Also, keep in mind that Andy Reid has had extra time to prepare for this game. Reid is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and he almost always uses this extra time to create an enormous advantage for his team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s going to be a very interesting injury report to see how many offensive linemen the Chargers will be missing.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping Trai Turner would be out for the Chargers so that the Chiefs would be more appealing. Turner, however, will play. I still like the Chiefs, but I won’t be betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping for a surprise inactive for the Chargers’ offensive line. Otherwise, I doubt I’ll be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jacob Camenker likes the Chiefs enough to bet them. I’m close. I considered a one-unit wager on the -8.5 -108 at Bookmaker, but I hate getting bad line value and going with all of this public action. Andy Reid with extra time to prepare is nice though.

New England Patriots (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
Line: Seahaks by 3.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

I’m going to devote this section to promoting things from myself, my friends and my readers. I promoted my book last week. This time, I’d like to share a book written by Kim Hastings, a reader since 2013:

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: It’s only been one week, but my pair of early front-runners to win MVP are Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. The latter couldn’t miss in last week’s opener against the Falcons. Wilson didn’t even throw an incompletion in the first 26 minutes of the game! There was talk about letting Wilson “cook” this season, and thus far, the Seahawks have lived up to their promise.

This is obviously a more difficult challenge for Wilson, as the Patriots possess one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, Stephon Gilmore, plus other talented defensive backs, like the emerging J.C. Jackson. The Patriots also have some talent on the defensive line, including second-year edge rusher Chase Winovich.

Having said that, there’s a huge difference between going up against Ryan Fitzpatrick compared to Wilson. Fitzpatrick struggled last week, especially when DeVante Parker left the game with an injury, but Wilson obviously stands more of a chance to succeed. I’m bearish on the Patriot linebackers, so this is an area that Wilson should be able to exploit along with Chris Carson.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Cam Newton may not have looked exactly like the quarterback who won the MVP award during the 2015 season, but he was certainly healthier than he was last year. Newton was confidently trampling over the Dolphins, as he led the Patriots to their first victory this season.

Newton has a tougher challenge in this contest. He had the luxury of battling a Miami defense with some major holes – no pass rush, poor linebackers – but the Seahawks now possess some stellar players on their stop unit, including Jamal Adams, who had quite the Seattle debut last week. Adams, Bobby Wagner, Quandre Diggs and the talented Seattle corners should be able to limit Newton and his lackluster supporting cast.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Seahawks can generate pressure on Newton. Seattle displayed more of a pass rush than I anticipated last week, as 2019 first-rounder L.J. Collier looked like he improved. The Patriots have blocked well over the years, but they lost their offensive line coach this offseason, so that may change in 2020.

RECAP: Doesn’t this spread seem low to you? I think it is. I calculated this spread to be Seattle -6. Other metrics are a bit lower, yet still above what the current line is. DVOA says -5 is correct, while the computer model thinks -4 is the right number.

I’m not sure why this spread is only -3.5. There’s not an overwhelming amount of action on either side, so this is what the sportsbooks set to get equal money on both sides. Perhaps the bookmakers know that the public believes these teams are very close in talent. The Patriots have an excellent defense, but their offense is dreadful, and I don’t see how they can consistently score on Seattle’s vastly improved stop unit.

Remember, Newton is a new quarterback. He covered last week, but did so with Bill Belichick having extra time to prepare. Belichick won’t have that luxury this week, so the Seahawks should be able to win this game by at least four.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has risen from -3.5 to -4 since Tuesday, but I’m still going with three units on the Seahawks.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not really seeing an edge for either side in this game, so I’m going to drop the unit count to one.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has dropped to +3.5 in some books, as there appears to be some pro money on the Patriots. I don’t think I’ll be betting more than a unit on either side, but we’ll see.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money on the Seahawks late, perhaps because James White is out due to a death in the family. This line has risen to -4.5 in most sportsbooks, but you can still get -4 -115 at BetUS. This will be a one-unit wager, as planned.

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-0)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 48.5.
Monday, Sept. 21, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Las Vegas, otherwise known as Sim City! Tonight, the Oakland Raiders battle the New Orleans Saints! Guys, we received complaints last week that no one could understand us because we had masks on, so we’ve been allowed to lift our masks whenever we speak. I look forward to hearing what all of you have to say, except not really because I hate most of you.

Emmitt: Floyd, I gonna be real caution with the mask on so I will not lift this mask. I do not wish to get the Corongovirus because 180,000 people die from the Corongovirus in this country alone. That number, 180,000, real high, and it mean millions of people have die and I does not want to be one of them!

Reilly: Emmitt, I don’t understand anything you said because your mask is blocking your words. But I don’t really care. Anyway, this is my first time I’m in Las Vegas. I’ve never gambled before, so I’m looking forward to doing so after this game when I ditch all of you losers. I once tried to gamble on some girls playing hopscotch outside the house, but Mother punished me by taking away my macaroni and cheese for the evening, so I learned my lesson.

Tollefson: Kevin, I remember that day fondly because I ended up kidnapping those girls.

Reilly: Thanks, Tolly. I think the first thing I’m going to do is gamble on blackjack. If you get 21 you win, and the trick is to make sure you have the old man and the woman on the cards.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I know a thing or two about blackjack. You see, when there’s a thing or two, there is a thing, and then there could be another thing, and that’s how you get to two. Because if you have just one thing, that’s one. But if you have two things, that’s two. Two things. Just like two cards in blackjack. If you have the old man that’s 10 points, and if you have the old woman, that’s 10 points. Because the old man, he’s 10 points. And the old woman is 10 points, too. So, if you combine them together, you get 10 points and another 10 points. That’s because the old man is 10 points, and if you have something worth 10 points, it’s worth 10 points. Because it’s 10 points, and 10 points is worth 10 points.

Reilly: Jason, you idiot, if you get the old man and the old woman, that’s 21 points because that’s how you get blackjack! That’s what New Daddy told me!

Cutler: What old dude and old woman?

Reilly: It’s OK, New Daddy, you can go back to sleep. Guys, I think I’m going to win so much money in Las Vegas. I just hope no one tells Mother because she’ll take it away from me and put it into my trust, which I can’t touch until I’m grown up.

Fouts: Kevin, you won’t have to worry about us telling your mother that you plan on gambling. In fact, I’ll help you. In blackjack, you get cards, and the cards tell you what the numbers are. If you get a 2 card, that’s worth two. Because a 2 is worth two. Then, if you get a 3 card, that’s worth three. Because a 3 is worth three. Then, if you get a 4 card, that’s worth four. Because a 4 is worth four. Then, if you get a 5 card, that’s worth…

Wolfley: DAN, LET ME INTERRUPT YOU. WHERE I COME FROM, IF YOU GET A 2 CARD, IT’S WORTH 10, AND IF YOU GET A 10 CARD, IT’S WORTH TWO. THAT’S BECAUSE WE COUNT UP TO 10 BY GOING, ONE, 10, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, SIX, SEVEN, EIGHT, NINE, TWO. WE USED TO COUNT LIKE YOU DO, BUT THEN THE TOTEM POLES WITH EYEBALLS SHOWED UP AND CHANGED EVERYTHING.

Reilly: You idiots are making me not want to gamble anymore! What else is there to do in Sim City? I passed by a woman who wasn’t wearing much and she asked if I want a fun time with her for a price. I wonder what she wanted. Guys, do you think she’d like to look at my Nick Foles memorabilia collection?

Tollefson: No, Kevin, trust me. I found out what she was into when I paid her. Of course, I got my money back when I kidnapped her, too.

Reilly: Great, Tolly, you ruined my chance of getting to know a new friend! I guess I’ll have to play more casino games.

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’re talking about casino games, Kevin. Let’s talk about some casino games, Kevin. Let’s begin by discussing blackjack, Kevin. Have you heard of blackjack, Kevin? What about-

Reilly: What do you mean, “have I heard of blackjack?” That’s what we’ve been talking about this entire time!

Charles Davis: I was just testing you, Kevin. Let’s see if you know any other games, Kevin. What about poker, Kevin? How about roulette, Kevin? Just better make sure that roulette isn’t Russian, Kevin! Why don’t we chat about baccarat, Kevin? What about craps, Kevin? Then there’s Keno, Kevin? Keno sounds like Kevin, Kevin. Either way, Kevin, if you play any of these games, Kevin, I’ll be telling your mother, Kevin.

Reilly: I HATE YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I WANTED TO FINALLY BECOME A GROWN MAN AT THE AGE OF 68 AND GAMBLE ON MY OWN, BUT NOW I CAN’T BECAUSE OF YOU SO I HOPE YOU BURN IN HELL, YOU SCUM!!! We’ll be back after this!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: I bet Josh Jacobs to win the rushing title at 16/1 odds, and I’m happy with what I saw out of him to start the year. He trampled the Panthers quite easily, and while this matchup is tougher, we just saw Ronald Jones have some success bursting through the Saints’ front. New Orleans is missing some defensive personnel, so if that continues to be the case, Jacobs should do well.

Of course, that largely depends on Trent Brown’s availability. The dominant right tackle was forced out of Week 1. He wasn’t missed, but the Raiders will need him against a very underrated Saints defense. His status will be huge.

Brown will be needed for both run blocking and pass protection, especially after what Tom Brady endured last week. Derek Carr will be battling a talented New Orleans secondary, so he’ll need some time in the pocket to locate his improved receivers and Darren Waller.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Raiders won last week, but they were mildly disappointing because their defense couldn’t stop the Panthers. I liked some of the moves Mike Mayock made this offseason, but that didn’t translate right away. The season is still young, but the Raiders will have a tougher task in this contest.

That said, the Raiders caught a break because Michael Thomas may not be able to play after suffering a high ankle sprain. Thomas’ absence would be huge, as it would diminish everyone else. Suddenly, Emmanuel Sanders would get the top coverage, while the defense would be able to focus more on Alvin Kamara.

Speaking of Kamara, the Raiders held another talented running back, Christian McCaffrey, to fewer than 100 rushing yards. McCaffrey also caught three passes for only 38 yards, so perhaps the new Raider linebackers will have similar success Monday night.

RECAP: I was really hoping for fans in this game, as it would’ve created an emotional environment in the Raiders’ first-ever home game in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, Nevada’s incompetent governor ruined that dynamic.

Having said that, I still like the Raiders. The Saints are not the same team without Thomas, and I think this spread is inflated anyway. My number is New Orleans -1.5, but if that’s too extreme for you – I factored in Thomas – look at the advance line (NO -4.5) and DVOA (NO -5.5). Even the computer model is short (NO -6). This spread is nearly a touchdown, and about 80 percent of the public is betting the Saints. I’ll gladly fade the public and take the value.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Michael Thomas is out, which would explain the line drop. Six is much more appealing than 5.5, as six is the third-most-prominent key number in the NFL.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders and Saints both have some injuries of note, but nothing to make either dysfunctional. I think there’s a decent chance the Saints could be flat off their victory over Tom Brady, but I’m not very high on the Raiders either.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: All of the lines have dropped to +5.5, except at BetUS, where +6 -115 is available. Given that this is the final +6 remaining, I’m going to lock in two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps pounded the Raiders down to +4, which is music to my ears. I was already on the Raiders for two units, and that’s how much I would plan on betting if I didn’t already have a position, despite the line move. It’s also not ideal that Trent Brown and Nick Kwiatkoski are out, but the Raiders have a huge emotional edge in this game. The Saints, who are often terrible to start the year, might be flat following their victory over the Buccaneers. The best line is +4 -108 at Bookmaker, so I’d bet there if I hadn’t locked this in already. For more on this game…