NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)

NFL Picks (2019): 112-80-3 (+$9,415)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 25, 7:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games







Los Angeles Rams (6-5) at Arizona Cardinals (3-7-1)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Dec. 1, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I get that the Ravens have a great defense, but the Rams looked atrocious Monday night. They couldn’t keep most of their drives alive, and they were restricted to just six points. They barely had any success in garbage time. It was an ugly showing on all fronts.

I can’t see things improving in this game, especially considering that it’s on a short week. Jared Goff is playing behind the worst offensive line in the NFL – excluding whatever the hell the Dolphins put together – and we all know by now that Goff gets particularly frazzled when facing lots of pressure. The Cardinals can bring plenty of heat with Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs on the edges. I can’t see the Rams blocking either guy, which will result into more poor throws from Goff.

Don’t expect much from Todd Gurley either. He had a nice game against the Bears two weeks ago, but Chicago has been very weak to the run ever since losing Akiem Hicks. The Cardinals, despite their utter inability to cover tight ends, have been solid versus the run this year.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals had severe pass-protection issues last year and early in the season, but they’ve made some changes to help in that regard. The Ravens demonstrated that the Rams can’t produce much pressure if Aaron Donald is double teamed on every play, so perhaps the Cardinals will utilize the same strategy.

Lamar Jackson was able to blow by the Rams’ bewildered defense Monday night, and I wonder if Kyler Murray will have the same success. The Rams had issues against the other mobile quarterback they went up against earlier in the year as well. Granted, this was Russell Wilson, and he and Jackson are better than Murray right now, but Murray has improved as his rookie campaign has progressed, especially with Christian Kirk back on the field.

The Cardinals won’t be able to run the ball very well with Kenyan Drake and the other running backs, but they could have success as receivers out of the backfield, as the Cardinals are creative in finding ways for their backs to be used as passing weapons.

RECAP: This is another spread that makes absolutely no sense to me. I consider the Rams and Cardinals to be even, as they’re right next to each other in my NFL Power Rankings. Thus, Arizona should be favored by three. If, however, you don’t trust my power rankings, just look at DVOA. Arizona and Los Angeles are slotted right next to each other there as well!

Despite this, the Rams – not the Cardinals – are favored by three. I think this is absolutely absurd. This spread was created because the public still doesn’t seem to understand that the Rams are a below-average team. They have a nice defense, but their offensive line stinks, and Goff is not playing well as a result. Conversely, the Cardinals have been very competitive this season. They nearly defeated the 49ers prior to their bye, and they almost won in Tampa Bay the week before that. Had the Cardinals prevailed in those contests, I highly doubt they’d be three-point dogs to a Rams team that is playing on short rest after being humiliated on national television.

Furthermore, the Rams may not be completely focused. It’s very difficult to come back from such a crushing defeat on a short week. They also have to battle the Seahawks, Cowboys and 49ers after this, so they may not take Arizona seriously.

I love the Cardinals in this spot, and this will be my third five-unit play of the week. In fact, I considered Arizona as my December NFL Pick of the Month when this spread was listed at +4 on Monday.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/LOCKED IN: Several sportsbooks have dropped this spread to +2.5, thanks to sharp action on the Cardinals. Fortunately, some sportsbooks still have +3 available. This line is +3 -120 at BetUS and Bovada, while FanDuel has +3 -110 available. With no injuries worth monitoring, I’ll lock in Arizona +3 -110 at FanDuel for five units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some people asked me why I don’t lock in more games earlier. This is exactly why. I’ve locked in five units on the Cardinals, but Kyler Murray popped up on the injury report with a hamstring Friday evening. Fortunately, Murray practiced fully on Friday, so he should be able to take the field. For the sake of my Supercontest entries, as well as my sanity,let’s hope Murray plays.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Phew. Kyler Murray will start, per media reports. Thank goodness.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet this down to +2.5. I still like Arizona at that number, but it wouldn’t be a five-unit play (maybe three.) Bovada has +3 -130 available, so I’d bet Arizona there.




The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.
Following this game, the Rams have to play the Seahawks, Cowboys and 49ers.


The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.
Computer Model: Rams -4.
DVOA Spread: Cardinals -3.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 55% (12,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Rams have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Cardinals are 29-18 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 36-22 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Rams -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Cardinals 23, Rams 20
Cardinals +3 (5 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$550
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 34, Cardinals 7

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Oakland Raiders (6-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
Line: Chiefs by 10.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Dec. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 continues. Emmitt’s trueborn son, Emmitt Smith IV, the III, the V, Sr., the VIII, Jr. Sr. XII Smith, meets the Three-Eyed Baltimore Raven.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: One of the reasons I loved the Jets over the Raiders last week was because I believed New York’s elite run defense, which restricted Saquon Barkley to just one rushing yard, would be able to put the clamps on Josh Jacobs. That’s exactly what happened, as Jacobs failed to do anything throughout the course of the game. Derek Carr, as a result, struggled because he had to carry the offense.

Things have a chance to be radically different in this game. The Chiefs have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Jacobs will have a shot to put together a huge performance. This will make things easier for Carr despite the fact that he has to battle a secondary that has improved in recent weeks. Carr should, however, be able to hit Darren Waller against a linebacking corps that can’t defend tight ends.

You may have noticed that I used “chance” and “shot” when discussing Jacobs. The reason for that is the possibility that the Chiefs will jump out to a huge lead, which would could take the Raiders out of their run script. If that happens, we could see Carr struggle like he did versus the Jets.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The possibility of the Chiefs establishing a huge advantage is very real. This shouldn’t surprise anyone, given how pathetic the Raiders looked when trying to defend Sam Darnold. Their injury-ravaged secondary had no chance, with Darnold having a strong performance.

If Darnold was able to torch the Raiders by throwing to Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder and Ryan Griffin, imagine what Patrick Mahomes will do with Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. Actually, we don’t have to imagine because we saw Mahomes torch Oakland back in Week 2, which was when the Raiders had a healthier secondary.

What’s crazy about that outcome was that Mahomes didn’t even have Hill at his disposal. Hill pulled a hamstring early in the Monday night game, but the Chiefs said they are optimistic about his chances of suiting up for this contest.

RECAP: The Raiders have been a cute story this year, but as evidenced by their close game against the Bengals and blowout defeat versus the Jets, they’re not very good. Now, they have to play a healthy Chiefs team after Andy Reid has enjoyed a week off to prepare for this contest. Good luck, Oakland!

I believe this game will be an ugly blowout. The computer model agrees, making its line Kansas City -14. I’m willing to bet a unit or two on the host. I’m fearful of a back-door cover, but the Chiefs should be able to prevail by a couple of touchdowns.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still haven’t decided whether I’m betting one or two units on the Chiefs. It goes without saying that a two-unit bet would require Tyreek Hill to play at 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are heavy winds projected for this game, which might allow the Raiders to hang around. However, there was a serious addition to the injury report on Friday, as Trent Brown missed practice and was declared questionable. If Brown is out, and the winds aren’t as bad as expected, I may bet a small amount on the Chiefs.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It appears as though Trent Brown will play. With the line rising, and the winds set to blow heavily, I don’t think I’ll be betting on the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not betting this game. It’s going to be very windy, and Trent Brown will play for the Raiders. I’d still have some interest at -10, but not -10.5 or -11.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -7.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -8.5.
Computer Model: Chiefs -14.
DVOA Spread: Chiefs -10.




The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 52% (17,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.

Raiders are 18-12 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Andy Reid is 13-7 ATS following a bye.

Opening Line: Chiefs -9.

Opening Total: 54.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 35 degrees. Heavy winds, 20 mph.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chiefs 38, Raiders 24
Chiefs -10.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 40, Raiders 9

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Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at Denver Broncos (3-8)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Dec. 1, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called The Most Popular Musicians.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers didn’t have three starting offensive linemen in their pre-bye week game in Mexico against the Chiefs, so I didn’t give them much of a chance of winning that game. Center Mike Pouncey is out for the year, but left tackle Russell Okung might return. His presence will be huge because the Chargers already matched up poorly with Von Miller going up against Sam Tevi or the backup right tackle. A backup blind-side protector battling Malik Reed would be extra problematic.

Meanwhile, Philip Rivers will have to deal with a pass defense that matches up well with his weapons. Chris Harris Jr. should be able to limit Keenan Allen, while the linebacking corps has covered tight ends well this year, so Hunter Henry may not have a big game. Perhaps Rivers will throw more to Mike Williams, as Denver’s other healthy corners aren’t very good.

It could be difficult for the Chargers to run on the Broncos. Devin Singletary hit the century mark last week, but only did so because the Bills wore down the Broncos in the second half. Denver’s run defense has been solid since some early-season struggles that were the result of injury.

DENVER OFFENSE: We should see Drew Lock sooner rather than later. Lock figures to be ready soon, which has to be a relief for any Denver fan, or really anyone who likes watching football because Brandon Allen is anemic. He gave his team no chance last week. Granted, the one interception he threw wasn’t his fault because Courtland Sutton ran the wrong route, but Allen had two potential picks that were dropped, as he tossed off his back foot throughout the entire afternoon.

The one chance that Allen has of being not terrible in this game is if right tackle Ja’Wuan James returns from injury. James is absolutely needed, even more so than Okung is for the Chargers because Joey Bosa will be lined up against his backup otherwise. Meanwhile, Melvin Ingram has an advantage on the blindside versus beleaguered left tackle Garett Bolles. The Broncos can’t be weak on both edges and win this game.

If James can return from injury – he was limited all week in practice ahead of Week 12 – the Broncos might have a chance. Allen should be able to target talented rookie tight end Noah Fant against the Chargers’ slow linebackers. It’ll help that Phillip Lindsay will likely have success against a Charger defense that has been gashed against the run all year.

RECAP: There are plenty of reasons to like the Broncos. They’re at home (just kidding). They were -3 on the advance line, yet are now 2.5-point underdogs, so we’re getting tons of line value. There’s a ton of action coming in on the Chargers. Ja’Wuan James seems to have a good chance of playing this game. And there’s a chance that the Chargers could be down three offensive linemen again.

However, there’s one major reason not to bet on the Broncos: Brandon Allen. If he’s named the starter again over Lock, I can’t advocate a wager on Denver. If, however, Lock replaces him, I might have some interest in betting the Broncos for two or three units. We don’t know how good Lock will be, but he can’t be nearly as terrible as Allen.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Drew Lock will start for the Broncos, which is a huge deal. I’m not sure how good Lock is, but he can’t be worse than the noodle-armed Allen. I may bet a few units on the Broncos, especially now that the line is +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: I considered this the most important injury report of the week, as the Chargers had three offensive linemen who could potentially miss this game. Unfortunately, it appears as though Russell Okung and Sam Tevi will play, as both practiced all week. Conversely, Von Miller might be out because he had just one limited practice Friday after not practicing Wednesday or Thursday. I would’ve liked the Broncos a lot more under different circumstances, but unless something changes prior to kickoff, I don’t think I can advocate a large wager on them. I even considered moving to the Chargers, but they’re now favored by 3.5.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Reports say that Russell Okung and Von Miller will play. We’ll see. I may end up betting this game depending on how the inactives list looks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Broncos won’t have Von Miller or Ja’Wuan James, which is huge. The Chargers, meanwhile, will be getting back two offensive linemen (Russell Okung, Sam Tevi) and Derwin James. If you can do it, I’d switch my pick to the Chargers. I’d even bet the Chargers at -3, but the -3.5 number and the betting action makes that difficult.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -2.5.
Computer Model: Chargers -3.
DVOA Spread: Chargers -1.


The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
How can anyone bet Denver right now?

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 74% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Broncos have won 12 of the last 16 meetings.

Broncos are 24-13 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Chargers -1.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Sunny, 40 degrees. Light wind.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 20
Chargers -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 23, Chargers 20

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New England Patriots (10-1) at Houston Texans (7-4)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Dec. 1, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: If you just look at Tom Brady’s stats, you may notice that he hasn’t been very impressive lately. In fact, his numbers have been atrocious of late, but he shouldn’t be blamed for that. The past two weeks, Brady has played games in terrible weather conditions, as both battles against the Eagles and Cowboys took place in heavy winds. There was also a downpour versus Dallas. Meanwhile, Brady was missing his top two outside receivers last week, while the Eagles provided a very difficult challenge defensively, thanks to all the pressure they bring.

Things will be much easier for Brady this week. Weather won’t be an issue because he’ll be playing in a dome. He may also have at least one of Mohamed Sanu or Phillip Dorsett back from injury. Also, the Texans have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Colts couldn’t really attack this last week because T.Y. Hilton wasn’t quite himself, but Brady will have his way with Houston’s defense.

It also should be noted that Isaiah Wynn returned last week. New England’s left tackle played for the first time since Week 2. He performed well, and he should continue to improve. His presence will help keep Whitney Mercilus out of the backfield, which is a huge deal because Mercilus is Houston’s lone, healthy, viable pass rusher.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It’s difficult to imagine the Texans keeping up with the Patriots on the scoreboard. They rely so much on the pass and can’t run very well, and yet New England is terrific against aerial attacks and is fully capable of eliminating No. 1 receivers.

I don’t expect DeAndre Hopkins to be completely shut out like Amari Cooper was last week because he’s actually healthy, but he won’t have a big game. The same can be said of Will Fuller. New England’s outside cornerbacks are great, while Deshaun Watson will see tons of pressure in the pocket. Watson has performed poorly this season when battling potent pass rushes, and I don’t expect this result to be any different.

The Patriots are weaker against the run than the pass, but it’s not like they’re inept at defending that aspect of opposing offenses. Besides, Carlos Hyde isn’t good enough to take advantage of that anyway.

RECAP: It’s unusual to see a spread that isn’t inflated in New England’s favor. Usually, the line is two or three points higher than it should be, but that’s not the case in this contest. The line is only -3, which is not high enough by any metric. The advance spread was New England -4.5. DVOA says this line should be -4. The computer model, meanwhile, believes that the spread should be -7!

I hate all of the public action coming in on the Patriots, but that’s not enough to keep me off them. This spread is too short, and we’re getting Bill Belichick versus Bill O’Brien. This is a colossal coaching mismatch. Belichick has yet to lose to O’Brien, and I don’t think that’ll begin happening now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like the juice is rising on the Patriots. In fact, some sportsbooks have -3.5 listed. I initially planned on betting this game, but Tom Brady was downgraded in Thursday’s practice with his elbow injury. I may not end up betting this game as a consequence.

SATURDAY NOTES: Did I say Broncos-Chargers was the most important injury report? I think I meant this one, as the Patriots have several players battling the flu. Jamie Collins, Stephon Gilmore and Dont’a Hightower are some noteworthy players stricken with the flu. We’ll have to wait until just prior to kickoff to make any sort of determination on this one.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Bill Belichick has never really lost to Bill O’Brien, but I don’t think he’s ever had several members of his team stricken with the flu ahead of a matchup against his former assistant. Also, Tom Brady may still have an elbow issue, so I don’t think I’ll be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t want to bet the Patriots because of all the public money on them, plus several players have the flu. They’ll play, but they may not be 100 percent. I don’t want to bet the Texans because Bill O’Brien is at a severe coaching mismatch against Bill Belichick. Also, the most likely result of this game is New England winning by three, which is exactly what the spread is. I don’t see anything appealing about this game, but if you want to bet it, Bookmaker and BetUS both have -3 -120 available for the Patriots, while Bovada has a +3.5 -120 for Houston.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -4.5.
Computer Model: Patriots -7.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -4.


The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
No surprise here.

Percentage of money on New England: 74% (48,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Tom Brady is 245-74 as a starter (182-123 ATS).

Tom Brady is 20-12 ATS on Sunday Night Football.

Patriots are 20-21 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Deshaun Watson is 6-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 or more. ???

Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 20, Texans 13
Patriots -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 28, Patriots 22

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Minnesota Vikings (8-3) at Seattle Seahawks (9-2)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 50.
Monday, Dec. 2, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, home of rich people who hate themselves and lots of poverty! Tonight, the Seahawks are playing the Minnesota Twins. Guys, I think it’s time. I’ve been toying with this idea long enough, but the season is going to end soon, so we have to begin. It’s time we impeach Charles Davis and Herm Edwards!

Emmitt: Benny, this not a great idea. I do not like the impeach. My favorite vegetable implum. Can we implum instead?

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m talking about impeach; not peach! You know, the thing they do in government! I can’t wait to impeach Charles and Herm!

Tollefson: Kevin, I think you’re wasting time. This impeachment business will not go anywhere. Trust me, I tried to impeach a woman who escaped my basement. Then, I realized that I could just strangle her and throw her body into the river, so I did exactly that!

Reilly: Tolly, Mother said I can’t go down to the river because the current can sweep her poopykins away, so this is not an option for me.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I just heard something about rivers. When you talk about rivers, you talk about water in a line that moves. That’s what a river is. This is not to be confused with an ocean, which is water that doesn’t move. It’s also not to be confused with Philip Rivers, who is a real good quarterback for the San Antonio Chargers. Rivers is real good, which is why I think he’s a real good quarterback. Because he’s real good, and he’s a quarterback. And he’s not a regular rivers because he’s not water who moves.

Reilly: Shut up, you’re just wasting time with nonsense! Let’s move on with impeachment. OK, guys, first question! How did it make me feel when Herm yelled at me that one time!?

Fouts: And here’s what he means by yell. When you yell, you speak loudy. This is not to be confused by a whisper, which is when you speak softly. And this should also not be confused with the color yellow, which has the first four letters of the word “yell.”

Wolfley: DAN, IN MY PARALLEL UNIVERSE, THE WORD YELL CONTAINS EIGHT LETTERS OF THE WORD YELLOW. IT USED TO BE FOUR, BUT THE THREE-TOED ICE CREAM CONES MADE SURE THAT WOULD CHANGE.

Reilly: Stop it, guys! New Daddy, tell these idiots we need to move on with the impeachment hearings!

Cutler: Yeah, I’ll take two peaches, thanks.

Reilly: That’s not what I said, New Daddy! Anyway, Charles Davis, I have a question for you! Were you part of a quick, pro throw?

Charles Davis: Kevin, you’re talking about throws, Kevin, so let’s talk about throws other than quick pro throws, Kevin. Let’s start with the deep throw, Kevin. We can then move on to a short throw, Kevin. Let’s chat about sideline throw, Kevin. What about a screen throw, Kevin? What happens if we discuss side-arm throw, Kevin? Can you name a type of throw, Kevin?

Reilly: No, I’m not doing it! We must impeach you and not waste time with stupid questions, Charles Davis!

Charles Davis: You said time, Kevin, and I’ll accept that as a correct answer, Kevin, because a timed throw is a type of throw, Kevin. Congrats, Kevin, you win, Kevin!

Reilly: I won!? Finally! After all this time! What did I win!?

Charles Davis: Nothing, Kevin. No prize this week, Kevin. Better luck next week, Kevin!

Reilly: WHAT!? I FINALLY WIN, AND I GET NOTHING!? I’M GOING TO IMPEACH THE S**T OUT OF YOU NEXT WEEK, A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Mike Zimmer is one of the best coaches in the NFL, so I’m eager to see what he has in store following the bye week. Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach, so perhaps he’ll be able to fix the main problem with his stop unit, which would be the secondary.

Minnesota’s cornerbacks, in particular, have been dreadful this season. None of them can cover at all, and the Vikings have surrendered big passing performances all year. Even Case Keenum was unstoppable in a Thursday night affair before suffering an injury. Russell Wilson has a great matchup on paper, but perhaps Zimmer has cooked something up to repair his team’s broken cornerback group. It’s possible that with extra time off, Xavier Rhodes can heal whatever injury has been bothering him.

The Seahawks, of course, will need to throw, as the Vikings are stellar versus the run. The Seattle offensive line is pretty poor, especially in the wake of center Justin Britt’s injury, so I expect the Vikings to win in the trenches.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins has struggled in these primetime affairs against good teams over the years, but that wasn’t the case against the Cowboys in a Sunday night contest several weeks ago. Cousins prevailed in Dallas, and the media narrative was that he could finally win a national spotlight game.

The media, as usual, was spreading fake news. Cousins didn’t have to do much versus Dallas, as Dalvin Cook carried the team, both literally and figuratively. Cook has enjoyed a stellar season, and his performance against Dallas was especially impressive because the Cowboys are solid against the run. The Seahawks are graded similarly in that regard, but Cook is so good that he might be able to overcome the tough matchup.

Cook’s ability to run well will make things easy for Cousins, who should be able to find his talented receivers against Seattle’s pedestrian secondary. The Seahawks have been torched at times this year, but not recently because Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garoppolo were both missing their top two receivers against Seattle. The last time the Seahawks battled a viable quarterback with a fully intact receiving corps, Jameis Winston took them to overtime.

RECAP: Speaking of that Winston overtime game, that’s part of Seattle’s dubious home resume this year. They nearly lost to the Buccaneers and Bengals, and they got blown out by the Teddy Bridgewater-led Saints and Ravens. Their sole non-overtime victory at home came versus the Rams, who turned out not to be as good as people thought they were at the time.

The Seahawks, with their horrible offensive line and shaky secondary, are an overrated team. I don’t like the Vikings as much as most people either, but they’re at least coming off a bye. Giving Zimmer two weeks to prepare for anyone is a huge edge. Zimmer is 11-4 against the spread with extra time to prepare for a game.

With that in mind, as well as all of the public action on the Seahawks, I’m willing to wager three or four units on Minnesota.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven’t seen a real injury report yet, so I may make my decision on the unit count by Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings have a number of players listed as questionable, including Harrison Smith, Linval Joseph and Adam Thielen, but they’ve all practiced the entire week, so this isn’t much of a concern.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may lock this in at some point Monday afternoon because the juice seems to be indicating that this line will move down to +2.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was waiting for -110 juice on a +3 line, and we have that now at Bovada. It sucks that Adam Thielen is out, but I still like the Vikings at +3. They’re slightly better than the Seahawks, in my opinion, and Mike Zimmer’s extra time to prepare should help quite a bit. Make sure to get +3 if you bet this, even if you have to pay up to -125 at your sportsbook.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.
Computer Model: Seahawks -1.
DVOA Spread: Seahawks -3.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 59% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Zimmer is 58-32 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 11-4 ATS with extra time to prepare since 2015.

Seahawks are 30-14 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Seahawks are 46-32 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Clear, 42 degrees. Light wind.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Seahawks 20
Vikings +3 (3 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$330
Under 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 37, Vikings 30

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week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games
Bears at Lions, Bills at Cowboys, Saints at Falcons, Jets at Bengals, Titans at Colts, Browns at Steelers, Eagles at Dolphins, Packers at Giants, Redskins at Panthers, Buccaneers at Jaguars, 49ers at Ravens




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games



NFL Picks - Dec. 11


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11


NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9


2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5
Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6
Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)