NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2019



NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)

NFL Picks (2019): 51-31-1 (+$3,765)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 6, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 5 NFL Picks - Early Games







Denver Broncos (0-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
Line: Chargers by 6. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 is underway! Emmitt's trueborn son heads north, while Emmitt attempts to appease the rabid media, which continues to accuse him of collusion.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Melvin Gordon will return to action this week. He was active this past Sunday, but was only available for emergency. I don't know why the Chargers thought there would be an emergency against the worst team in NFL history, but whatever.

Gordon will have a juicy matchup against the Broncos, who just surrendered 200-plus yards to Leonard Fournette. Denver has quality players in its front seven, so I don't understand why the team can't stop the run. Nevertheless, Gordon will be able to rip off long runs, but it's unclear how much of a workload he'll receive. Austin Ekeler will still be a factor, and he'll also do well as a receiver out of the backfield versus Denver's poor covering linebackers.

Philip Rivers will be able to capitalize on this, as well as Bradley Chubb's injury. The dynamic edge rusher is out, meaning inept left tackle Trent Scott won't be severely outmatched. The same can't be said on the other side with Von Miller going up against right tackle Sam Tevi. I imagine Denver will put some heat on Rivers, even with Chubb out. Rivers' performance will depend on how many healthy cornerbacks the Broncos will be able to field. Denver was down two corners last week - Kareem Jackson and Bryce Callahan - so Jackson potentially returning this week would have a huge impact on this contest.

DENVER OFFENSE: You'd think that getting the ball to your best players would be a simple strategy most coaches would utilize. Phillip Lindsay had a terrific performance at Lambeau in Week 3, and he may have led his team to victory if Joe Flacco and Noah Fant didn't fumble the game away with two killer give-aways that Green Bay turned into touchdowns. Lindsay saw an uptick in touches because Royce Freeman had to leave the field with an injury.

Common sense would dictate that Lindsay would receive more touches the following week, but that didn't happen. It was still an even workload with Lindsay and Freeman, which is just mind-boggling. There's some major potential for Lindsay to go off against the Chargers' slow linebackers, but that would require his coaches to call plays for him.

Joe Flacco also has a positive matchup. First of all, Melvin Ingram could be out, which would ease the pressure off him. Second, the Chargers have some injuries in their secondary, so one of Emmanuel Sanders or Courtland Sutton could go off again (probably Sanders.)

RECAP: I saw some people comment that they're never betting on Joe Flacco again. I don't have such reservations. We've wagered multiple units on Flacco twice this year, and he's 1-1 for us, so I don't see what the big deal is.

I love the Broncos this week for a variety of reasons. Let's begin with this spread being way off. My numbers say Denver -3 is the correct line. And no, that doesn't mean the Broncos and Chargers are even. The Chargers' home-field advantage isn't worth anything close to three points. I give them one point for being at home. They have no fans and thus usually perform poorly at home.

Adding to that, think about it this way: The Broncos would be 2-2 right now if it weren't for roughing-the-passer penalties that went against them in the final minutes of Weeks 2 and 4. If the 2-2 Broncos were at the 2-2 Chargers, what would this line be? Probably Chargers -3 or -3.5 at the most, right? Yet, because the Broncos had two bogus calls go against them, they're +6.5.

There's no reason the Chargers should be favored by about a touchdown against a competent opponent. What have they done this year to deserve that? Excluding the Dolphins game for obvious reasons, they have yet to cover the spread this season. In fact, they'd be 1-3 right now if Adam Vinatieri didn't miss several kicks.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are desperate. They're probably dead in the water at 0-4, but one team started the season with that mark and went on to make the playoffs (1992 Chargers.) The players will believe they still have a chance, and they'll have the support of their fans, who will flood the San Angeles stadium. There will be more orange than powder blue in the stands, which will benefit Denver.

At any rate, my unit count will depend on Kareem Jackson's status. It'll be very important for the Broncos not to be missing multiple cornerbacks against Rivers. I'll still be on Denver if Jackson sits, but this will be a five-unit play if Jackson can suit up.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I forgot to mention about the Chargers is that they've had a ridiculous travel schedule thus far. They've gone from San Angeles (Week 1), to the Eastern Time Zone to play Detroit (Week 2), then back to San Angeles (Week 3), then all the way to Miami (Week 4), and now back to San Angeles. This is yet another reason to love the Broncos. I'll like them even more if we can get +7.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos may have most of their roster healthy for the first time in a while, as both Kareem Jackson and Ja'Wuan James are questionable after practicing all week. Unfortunately, this line has dropped to +5.5 in many places while I was out Saturday morning and early afternoon. There are +6 -115s available at Bookmaker and Bovada, and I'm going to lock those in before the sharps make sure they disappear as well.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have continued to bet the Broncos, taking this spread down to +5. I love that we locked in the underdog early, but that's not the case in the next game...

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos at +6.5, +6, +5.5, and now +5. This line is down to +4.5. I love Denver, and I'm happy to see the pros do as well.




The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
The Broncos are desperate for a victory, while the Chargers are flying across the country yet again.


The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -6.5.
Computer Model: Chargers -10.
DVOA Spread: Chargers -5.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 51% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Broncos have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 81 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 24
    Broncos +6 -115 (5 Units) - Bovada -- Correct; +$500
    Broncos +225 (0.5 Units) - BetUS -- Correct; +$110
    Over 44.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Broncos 20, Chargers 13




    Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
    Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 46.5.

    Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is called Horny Hot Tub Guys.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys had a high-powered scoring attack through three weeks. Everyone was praising Kellen Moore, and Jerry Jones appeared as though he was willing to sell his grandson's soul to extend Dak Prescott. Then, we saw Dallas score just 10 points against the Saints, and it became clear that the Cowboys were a bit overrated all along.

    To be clear, the Cowboys are a very good team, but they were never great. They simply feasted on three of the worst teams in the NFL. The defensive DVOAs of the three opponents they battled prior to the Saints were 20th, 26th and 32nd. New Orleans provided a new challenge, as it was able to eliminate Amari Cooper with Marson Lattimore, forcing Prescott to look elsewhere. Prescott didn't play poorly, but he wasn't unstoppable like he was against the worst defenses in the league. The Packers will similarly erase Cooper with Jaire Alexander, so Prescott will need to come up with some new answers. Furthermore, left tackle Tyron Smith will be out, which will be very problematic against as Green Bay's enhanced pass rush.

    The Cowboys' one chance of moving the chains effectively is via Ezekiel Elliott. Some expect Elliott to have a huge game, but I'm not as bullish on his chances. Smith's absence will limit Elliott's running lanes, and I believe the Packers will have a better effort in run defense than we've seen the past couple of weeks. They have the personnel to stop the rush, and their long layoff perhaps allowed the coaching staff to find a solution.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Continuing with the trend of the Cowboys battling bad competition, the three quarterbacks they've beaten this year are a combined 0-7, and two of them (Eli Manning, Case Keenum) have been benched. In fact, the best quarterback Dallas has seen this year, excluding Daniel Jones in garbage time, has been Teddy Bridgewater.

    Stopping Aaron Rodgers is obviously a much different animal. The Cowboys have some holes in their secondary for Rodgers to exploit, especially if Davante Adams is available. Adams left the Eagles game in the fourth quarter, so it remains to be seen if he'll be able to suit up. It's not looking very good right now, but I still like Rodgers' chances as long as he's not missing anyone else.

    Another prominent Packer who suffered an injury last Thursday, Bryan Bulaga, also has an unclear status. Bulaga's presence will help immensely against DeMarcus Lawrence coming off the edge. Again, however, if Bulaga is the only offensive lineman missing, it's not a big deal because coaches can scheme around one player being out.

    RECAP: I love the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is getting more than three points against a non-elite quarterback. That's all I need to see.

    If you want more, this spread is incorrect. My numbers say Dallas -1.5 is the correct line. The Cowboys are inflated because of their 3-1 record, but if they traversed Green Bay's schedule, there's a good chance they would be 2-2 or worse. They've had the luxury of pummeling three of the worst teams in the NFL, and they just lost to Teddy Bridgewater. There's no reason they should be favored by more than a field goal against what I believe to be a superior opponent.

    Not only are the Packers better; they've had extra time to prepare for this game. They're coming off a loss on national TV, so they surely used the extra time to prepare for this contest in an attempt to redeem themselves.

    Furthermore, there's been sharp action bringing this spread down. Unfortunately, it seems as though the +3.5 -110s are gone. I still see a +3.5 -115 at BetUS, but I'm wondering if it's best to wait. If Adams and/or Bulaga are ruled out, it's possible we could see a better number.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: La'el Collins' back is acting up. If the Cowboys are missing both tackles, the Packers will be even more appealing.

    SATURDAY NOTES: La'el Collins is questionable after being limited in one practice this week. He may play, but backs are a tricky thing. Believe me - I know this very well! Collins may have to leave the game early, which would greatly benefit the Packers. The one piece of bad news for the Packers is that cornerback Kevin King is doubtful, but it sounds like right tackle Bryan Bulaga has a chance to play after being limited in practice all week. I'm still going big on Green Bay, and I'm locking in five units at +3.5 -120 at 5Dimes.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: UGH!!!!!! The sharps have decided to bet the Cowboys for some reason, and this line is now +4. This is horrible news. Not only did I get an inferior +3.5 line; I paid up for it! This sucks.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don't know what happened Sunday morning. The sharps jumped on the Cowboys, but it might have been phantom movement in an attempt to get +4 because they've been betting the Packers all afternoon. This line is down to +3 again. You can still get +3.5 -115 at Bovada.


    The Motivation. Edge: Packers.
    The Packers have had extra time to hear about their national TV loss.


    The Spread. Edge: Packers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -1.5.
    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -4.
    Computer Model: Cowboys -6.
    DVOA Spread: Cowboys -4.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    The Packers are a very slight public dog.

    Percentage of money on Green Bay: 55% (18,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • The underdog is 86-58 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 90-62 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 20-16 ATS as an underdog.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 27-15 ATS after a loss (11-7 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
  • Cowboys are 21-33 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -4.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: Packers 24, Cowboys 21
    Packers +3.5 -120 (5 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$500
    Packers +155 (0.5 Units) - BetUS -- Correct; +$75
    Under 47 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Packers 34, Cowboys 24




    Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
    Line: Chiefs by 10.5. Total: 55.5.

    Sunday, Oct. 6, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

    I'm going to devote this section to promoting things from myself, my friends and my readers. I wrote earlier that I'm in the process of writing my book. It's complete, and I'm having the cover designed now.

    This week, I'd like to promote a video sent to me by Gary T. He and his friend have a New England sports-talk video show worth checking out:



    If you want me to promote something of yours, send me an e-mail, so I can take a look at it!

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have two major injury question marks heading into this game. The first is T.Y. Hilton, whose absence was greatly felt last week. The Colts dropped 19 passes in three games Hilton missed in 2018, and they were up to their old antics versus the Raiders. There were seven drops in total, four of which came from Eric Ebron. It was a disaster.

    It's obvious to say that the Colts need Hilton on the field to be competitive with Kansas City. Hilton will give them a chance to move the chains, as he'll be able to stretch the field, even with cornerback Morris Claiborne coming off suspension. Hilton's presence will also open up some running lanes for Marlon Mack.

    Conversely, Hilton's absence will result in more drops, and it'll also allow Kansas City to play closer to the line of scrimmage. Stopping the run has been a big problem for the Chiefs, but loading the box will make it easier to contain Mack.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Then again, the Chiefs can just "stop" Mack by establishing a huge lead, forcing Jacoby Brissett to throw more than he'd like to. Kansas City's ability to tally lots of points will depend on the second injury question mark, Darius Leonard.

    Leonard is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, and his absence the past two weeks has had a profound impact on Indianapolis' defense. The Colts had trouble stopping the Raiders this past Sunday, for crying out loud. If they couldn't contain Derek Carr, what in the world will they do versus Patrick Mahomes and all of his weapons? This obviously includes Travis Kelce, who could have his best game yet against a defense that can't cover tight ends.

    Leonard's presence will obviously change all of this. Granted, there's no stopping Mahomes, but the Colts would be able to slow him and Kelce down a bit with Leonard on the field. Leonard's presence is especially needed because of Malik Hooker's injury. Not having either will open up the entire middle of the field versus the best offense in the NFL.

    RECAP: My pick will vary on if Hilton and Leonard play. If both are out, I'll be on the Chiefs, perhaps for multiple units. If both play, I'll be on the Colts, perhaps for multiple units. If only one is in, that's more complicated, and I'll have to think on it.

    For now, I'm going to side with the Colts, but that could certainly change later in the week. Again, check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don't have much clarity about the Colts' injured players. The Saturday update will likely dictate where I'll go with this game.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There's a good chance T.Y. Hilton will play, but Indianapolis is still a MASH unit. Darius Leonard has been ruled out, as has Clayton Geathers. This means the Colts will be down their two best defensive players, with one being out meaning that the top two safeties will miss this game as well. Good luck trying to stop Patrick Mahomes under those circumstances! The Chiefs should be able to score every time they touch the ball, which could even put the back door out of reach. I'm switching to Kansas City.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is dropping even though the Colts will be without their top two safeties and best overall defensive player. OK, then.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has really jumped on the Chiefs in the past couple of hours, but the line hasn't moved up. It seems as though the Colts are the sharp side, but not overwhelmingly so. I've switched to the Chiefs because the Colts are missing way too many key defenders. Everyone is focusing on T.Y. Hilton playing. That's nice and all, but I don't see how the Colts can stop the Chiefs at all without their top two safeties and best overall player. Still, the back door will be wide open, so I don't want to deal with that.


    The Motivation. Edge: Colts.
    Playoff revenge for the Colts.


    The Spread. Edge: Colts.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.5.
    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -8.5.
    Computer Model: Chiefs -10.
    DVOA Spread: Chiefs -10.


    The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
    I'm surprised there isn't more money on the Chiefs.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 67% (25,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -9.
  • Opening Total: 54.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 58 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: Chiefs 45, Colts 21
    Chiefs -10.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 55.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Colts 19, Chiefs 13




    Cleveland Browns (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0)
    Line: 49ers by 4.5. Total: 48.

    Monday, Oct. 7, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

    This week on ESPN, we're going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of homeless people. In tonight's game, the Cleveland Browns play the San Francisco Giants. Guys, Mother wouldn't let me come to San Francisco because of all the bums and poop on the street unless I wore a life jacket, so that's why I have a life jacket on, for those of you who were wondering.

    Emmitt: Benny, I very confuse. You say has a life jacket you wearing like I does, but do this jacket give you life? And if it do, do it take away your life and give you dead if you take it opposite on?

    Reilly: No, Emmitt, this is to protect me from poop, needles and bums on the street of San Francisco. Mother says you can't drown in poop, needles and bums if you have a life jacket on.

    Tollefson: Kevin, you're a f***ing sissy. The only time you should use a life jacket is when you tie it around a woman's neck and squeeze so that she can't breathe. I do this when the naked women in my house don't cook or clean properly. It teaches them a lesson.

    Reilly: Tolly, I would do that, except Mother says I can't talk to girls, duh! Hey Jason Witten, what do you think of my life jacket?

    Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. When I think about life jackets, I think of two things. One is life, and two is jackets. When you talk about life, it's like when you have life. And life is real good. And then, when you talk about jackets, you have to look at jackets. Jackets are real good. Then, you put the two together. Life and jackets. Both are real good, and when you combine them together, they're real, real good.

    Reilly: Thanks for saying nothing once again, Jason. Wait, what is this!? It's a bum! And he's pooping in our booth! New Daddy, save me!

    Cutler: Did you just say you have buns? I'll take two after my nap.

    Reilly: No, New Daddy! Help me! I'm going to drown in the bum's poop!

    Fouts: And here's what he means by drowning in the bum's poop. If you don't have a life jacket, you're going to drown in the bum's poop. That's exactly what he means! Luckily, I was able to read Kevin's mother's e-mail alert and put on a life jacket myself!

    Wolfley: DAN, I ALSO READ THE E-MAIL. IT WAS TOUGH TO READ THE E-MAIL BECAUSE I PUT SAUCE ON THE COMPUTER'S BOYS, SO MY COMPUTER WAS STICKY AND SOME OF MY KEYS WOULDN'T WORK.

    Reilly: See, isn't it great that Mother is amazing? And guess what, guys? I deleted the e-mail from Herm's account. Hahaha take that, Herm!

    Herm: I- CAN'T- BREATHE- DROWNING- POOP- HERM'S DROWNING- CAN'T- BREATHE- DROWNING- CAN'T- DROWNING- POOP!

    Reilly: BUHAAHAHAHA! Goodbye, Sweet Prince! I also deleted the e-mail from Charles Davis' phone, so he'll drown, too! Wait, Charles Davis, why do you have a life jacket!? How did you see the e-mail?

    Charles Davis: Kevin, that's because I have six e-mail accounts, Kevin. But because you brought up e-mail accounts, let's discuss the types of e-mail accounts, Kevin. Let's begin with G-mail, Kevin. That's a good one, Kevin. How about Hotmail, Kevin? That's a flash from the past, huh, Kevin? Let's discuss Yahoo! mail, Kevin! Don't forget the exclamation point, Kevin. That's important, Kevin. What about Outlook, Kevin? Let's see if you can name a type of e-mail service, Kevin. If you do, Kevin, I'll take off my life jacket, Kevin.

    Reilly: OK, you got it. Let me see...

    Charles Davis: Let me see is not an e-mail service, Kevin. Looks like I'm going to have to puncture a hole in your life jacket with these scissors as punishment, Kevin. Pop, Kevin! Now it's deflating, Kevin!

    Reilly: WHAT THE F**K, CHARLES DAVIS!? THAT WASN'T PART OF THE DEAL, CHARLES DAVIS! I'LL KILL YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I- I'M BEGINNING TO DROWN, CHARLES DAVIS! CAN'T BREATHE, CHARLES DAVIS! I- I- I- We'll be back after this!

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It's odd that the 49ers had gotten so much hype in the preseason because of Jimmy Garoppolo, and yet Garoppolo is the team's greatest question mark right now. Garoppolo has great ability, but hasn't been performing up to it, perhaps because he's still trying to get over knee surgery. Garoppolo will have a chance for a big game, depending on the status of Cleveland's secondary.

    The Browns haven't fielded a healthy defensive backfield in quite some time. They missed all four starters in a Sunday night loss versus the Rams, and only one returned last week. If the Browns are missing two or more secondary players once again, Garoppolo could have the best game of his season. He should, at the very least, have ample time in the pocket, thanks to his terrific offensive line. The one issue in that regard is the injury to left tackle Joe Staley, but if only one blocker is missing, it shouldn't be a big deal, even against Myles Garrett (see Week 1 when the Titans didn't have Taylor Lewan.)

    The 49ers will attempt to establish the run, as that is what they do best. The Browns just limited Mark Ingram, but San Francisco is so dominant in the trenches that it should be able to open up some running lanes for Matt Breida or perhaps even Tevin Coleman.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns had an offensive outburst at Baltimore last week. That may have surprised some, but the Ravens no longer have a quality stop unit. They lost their top two edge rushers during the offseason, and they have some injury problems in the secondary.

    The 49ers have a much better defense than the Ravens do. They have a terrific pass rush, thanks to Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and DeForest Buckner. Cleveland's offensive line is sub par at best, so San Francisco will be able to place tons of heat on Baker Mayfield, who won't have great opportunities against a much-improved San Francisco secondary.

    Cleveland's best chance of moving the chains consistently will come via Nick Chubb runs. The Browns don't even have a good matchup in that regard, but the same could be said last week when Chubb ripped off several long runs during his monster afternoon.

    RECAP: We have conflicting angles in this game. On one hand, the 49ers could be in a low-motivation spot. They've had two weeks where people were telling them how good they are for starting 3-0. After this contest, they have a short work week before taking on the rival Rams. The Browns are being disrespected after everyone hyped them up, so I could see San Francisco not taking them very seriously.

    On the other hand, this spread is way too low. I made this line San Francisco -7. DVOA projects the same figure. I'm very high on the 49ers because of what they can do in the trenches, so I'm going to pick them. However, given that they could look past the Browns, I'm not sure if I'll be betting them.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It's going to be difficult to be on the 49ers, given that they could be looking ahead to battling the Rams. Then again, I won't be betting the Browns because this spread isn't as high as it should be.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It's sounding like Cleveland's top two cornerbacks will be out once again. The good news is that both safeties will be on the field, so the secondary isn't a complete mess. I'm still going to be on San Francisco, but I probably won't bet this game.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is shooting up, with the sharps pounding San Francisco. I still have no interest in betting this game, but I'll likely wager on the Browns at +6 or higher.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread never reached +6. In fact, this line dropped a bit, as it's back down to +4.5 (at 5Dimes). The 49ers are a bit appealing to me because Cleveland's starting cornerbacks are both out. However, I'm worried about San Francisco looking ahead to next week's battle versus the Rams. This is going to remain a non-wager on the host.


    The Motivation. Edge: Browns.
    The 49ers have had two weeks to hear about how great they are. Following this game against the disappointing Browns, they have to battle the Rams.


    The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -7.
    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -4.5.
    Computer Model: 49ers -2.
    DVOA Spread: 49ers -7.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Cleveland: 59% (45,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • 49ers are 37-22 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -5.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Clear, 83 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Browns 24
    49ers -4.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 48 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    49ers 31, Browns 3






    week 5 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Rams at Seahawks, Cardinals at Bengals, Bills at Titans, Bears at Raiders, Buccaneers at Saints, Vikings at Giants, Jets at Eagles, Ravens at Steelers, Patriots at Redskins, Jaguars at Panthers, Falcons at Texans



    LOADING COMMENTS...

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 5 NFL Picks - Early Games



    NFL Picks - Jan. 16


    2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11


    2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15


    NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14


    2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14


    2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27




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    2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
    2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
    2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
    2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
    2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
    2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
    2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
    2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
    2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
    2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
    2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
    2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
    2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
    2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
    2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
    2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
    2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
    Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    Super Bowl XLIX Pick
    2015 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2015 Season:
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    Super Bowl 50 NFL Pick
    2016 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2017 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2017 Season:
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    2018 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2018 Season:
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    2019 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2019 Season:
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    Super Bowl LIV NFL Pick

    2020 Season:
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