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Go to Week 3 NFL Picks - Early Games
Seattle Seahawks (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 2. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread:
Walt's Calculated Line:
Sunday, Sept 24, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.
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I was shocked that the Seahawks couldn't pass protect last week. I know, I know, their offensive line sucks. I was well aware of that. However, the 49ers couldn't put much pressure on Cam Newton behind his poor front, so I figured their pass rush would be sporadic in Seattle. Instead, the 49ers put heavy heat on Russell Wilson throughout the afternoon.
If the 49ers were able to harass Wilson, what are the Titans going to do? That might be a difficult question to answer on the surface, but the fact of that matter is that Brian Orakpo looks like a shell of his former self right now. The same can be said of Jurrell Casey, who is struggling because of a back injury. Derrick Morgan is still performing at a fairly high level, and he'll easily win his matchup, but I think Wilson could have a bit more time in the pocket than last week.
Wilson should be able to exploit some nice matchups as a result. First-round rookie Adoree Jackson, who has struggled thus far, won't be able to deal with Doug Baldwin. Tyler Lockett, who is healthy now, figures to expose Tennessee's poor cornerback play. I'd also like Jimmy Graham against some shaky linebacker play, but it's unclear if the talented tight end is healthy.
The Titans have a pretty stout offensive line, but they have an incredibly difficult matchup this week versus Seattle's pass rush. Michael Bennett and Sheldon Richardson have been fantastic at creating mayhem in the trenches, so it could be difficult for the Titans' interior to contain them. Meanwhile, Frank Clark's matchup against Jack Conklin looks like a promising one. Conklin has taken a step backward from his promising rookie campaign for some reason.
Marcus Mariota, who struggled for half of the Jacksonville game, will have to keep many plays alive with his legs. I'm sure he'd love to toss some intermediate passes to Delanie Walker and DeMarco Murray, but Murray is banged up, while Walker is going up against a defense that has tremendous linebacker and safety play.
The one area of concern for the Seahawks' defense right now is the cornerback group. Richard Sherman is playing hurt right now, while Shaq Griffin hasn't been very effective either. The Titans have some talented receivers, but there are some issues there. Corey Davis is dealing with a hamstring, while Eric Decker hasn't assimilated into the offense just yet.
I liked the Titans heading into the season, but I was reluctant to bet on them in Week 1. My reasoning was that I didn't think they were ready to be favored over a Super Bowl contender. As it turns out, the Raiders beat them. Now, the same thing is happening. The Seahawks aren't as good as Oakland, but Tennessee still could choke under pressure. The team hasn't won any big games yet, so who are they to be laying a field goal over Seattle?
I'd like the Titans much better as home underdogs in this spot. They were actually projected to be home dogs on the advance line; the Seahawks were listed as one-point favorites prior to Week 2. However, the Titans are now favored by a field goal for some reason, which doesn't make much sense to me. This is too much of an overreaction to what happened last Sunday. The Seahawks barely snuck by the 49ers, but remember, they gave the Packers all they could handle in Lambeau. Perhaps they were just exhausted from that game, as they were flat versus San Francisco. I expect a much better effort from Seattle in this contest, so I like the Seahawks +3 for a few units.
As with the Falcons-Lions game, there's a major injury worth noting here, as Bobby Wagner is dealing with a thigh problem. Wagner's absence is less impactful than Travis Swanson's, so I'll still bet the Seahawks. However, I might drop the unit count to two.
There was sharp money on the Titans moving the line up to three, but the sharps took the Seahawks at +3. It's unclear if that's different sharp money, or if the Titans' movement was phantom action. I still like the Seahawks, even at +2.5, but not for three units. It'll be one or two, and I'll make the appropriate adjustment Sunday morning. The Seahawks are the second leg of my teaser.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES:
So much for +3. And so much for +2.5, for that matter! The sharps have been pounding the Seahawks, and the line is now +2. I'm going to drop this to two units as a result.
This line has remained at +2, so I'm going to stick with the Seahawks for two units.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
Sharp money has jumped on the Seahawks at +3.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 66% (25,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Seahawks are 32-46 ATS on the road since 2006 if they're not coming off an away loss.
Russell Wilson is 12-5 ATS as an underdog.
Titans are 23-14 ATS in non-conference home games.
Opening Line: Titans -1.
Opening Total: 44.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Seahawks 20, Titans 17
Seahawks +2 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Under 41 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Titans 33, Seahawks 27
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-2)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Chiefs -6.
Sunday, Sept 24, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 10 (I can't believe this is the 10th year I've been doing this!) In Episode 2, Evil Emmitt meets with Roger Goodell to keep the Patriots from moving to Los Angeles.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: It's alarming that Philip Rivers is 9-25 in his previous 34 games. When has an elite or a second-tier quarterback suffered such a horrible stretch? I understand going 8-8 or so for a few years, but Rivers can't seem to win any games. So, one of two things is going on here: One, he's overrated. Or two, the talent around him is terrible.
I'd go with door No. 2. Rivers' offensive line is pathetic. The Chargers tried to fix things by drafting two guards, but neither is playing, as one is injured, while the other sucks. The interior, featuring a very disappointing Matt Slauson, will struggle to block Chris Jones. Meanwhile, Joseph Barksdale, who has been an immense disappointment, will struggle to keep Justin Houston out of the backfield. Houston is going to make Rivers' life extremely miserable Sunday afternoon.
It's a shame that Rivers won't have much time in the pocket because he'd have some nice matchups to exploit otherwise. Hunter Henry saw lots of targets last week, and he has a positive matchup here, as the Eric Berry-less Chiefs couldn't contain Zach Ertz. I also like Melvin Gordon as a pass-catching back against the linebackers. Keenan Allen, stationed in the slot, has a positive matchup against the anemic Phillip Gaines. However, none of this will matter if Rivers is constantly harassed in the pocket, which is what I think will happen.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs aren't completely healthy up front, as they'll be missing center Mitch Morse. However, I think Zach Fulton can step in and provide similar production. Besides, it's the San Diego edge rushers the Chiefs will have to worry about, anyway. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are both tremendous, and they should be able to win their matchups against Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher.
Despite this, the Chiefs should still have success moving the chains. The Eagles brought an even better pass rush last week, and Kansas City survived. Alex Smith was able to do this with his usual quick throws, exploiting Philadelphia's linebackers and safeties with Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. He should have similar success, as the Chargers have similar problems at the same positions. The Chargers have yet to battle a talented tight end this year, so I think they're really going to struggle to contain Kelce.
The Chargers just haven't done well against the pass in general. Both Trevor Siemian and Jay Cutler have enjoyed nice performances against San Diego, so I don't see why Smith couldn't generate similar production.
RECAP: You may have noticed that I made some mistakes in this write-up, as I wrote "San Diego" a few times. This was intentional. I'm done referring to this team as the "Los Angeles Chargers." What a stupid name. They will be the San Diego Chargers who play neutral-site games in Los Angeles from this day forward.
I wanted to make a point about that because the Chargers have no home-field advantage. You may have noticed that I made the Chiefs -6 on my projected line. That might lead you to believe that I'd list Kansas City as -12 over the Chargers at home, but that's not true. That's because the Chargers don't deserve three points for being at home. I don't even think they deserve any points, but I'll give them a point because I'm a nice guy. However, the fact remains that there will be more Chiefs fans in the stands than Charger fans. Rivers has had to go to a silent count in home games before because of this issue, but it'll be worse now that the team is in Los Angeles.
With that in mind, this spread is way off. I don't know why, but the Chargers continue to get lots of respect. They were more than field-goal favorites over the Dolphins, for crying out loud. This line should be Chiefs -6, or something close to it. I expect Kansas City's defense to dominate this game, as it usually has done on the road in these matchups. The Chiefs are one of my top two picks this week as long as they remain at -3.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was asked why I love the Chiefs so much since the Chargers will be playing this game like it's their Super Bowl. Well, I don't see why Kansas City would take the Chargers lightly. Both teams will be going hard, and the Chiefs are just far superior to the Chargers, who have absolutely no home-field advantage. This spread is way short of what it should be.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs were always -3 this week, but the juice was always high. Some sharp movement on the Chargers dropped Kansas City to -3 -110 (5Dimes, BetUS). The Chiefs are still my top play this week. They're so much better than the Chargers, who weren't competitive with the other top-10 team they played thus far. I know they ended up losing by just three, but Denver was up 24-7 in the fourth quarter. The Chargers are losers, and I expect them to find some way to lose once again in Los Angeles, where there will be more Chiefs fans in the stands than Chargers fans.
SUNDAY MORNING: There's sharp money on the Chargers, which is great because this line has moved to -3 +100 in most books, and even -3 +105 at 5Dimes! I'm locking that one in. If this spread falls to -2.5, so be it, but I love positive juice.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: A line of -2.5 -115 has popped up on CRIS, but I'd rather go with -3 +105. I still love the Chiefs despite the sharp action on the Chargers.
FINAL THOUGHTS: We haven't seen a -2.5 -110 at all, so I'm glad I was able to lock this in at -3 +105. The Chiefs can still be had at -3 +100 at BetUS. The best number for the Chargers, by the way, is +3.5 -115 at Bovada.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
The sharps and public are on the Chiefs.
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 70% (32,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
History: Chiefs have won the last 6 meetings.
Andy Reid is 14-6 ATS on the West Coast.
Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.
Opening Total: 45.5.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 13
Chiefs -3 +105 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$525
Under 48 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Chiefs 24, Chargers 10
Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1)
Line: Packers by 7. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -9.
Walt's Calculated Line: Packers -12.
Sunday, Sept 24, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Packers.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is Jerks of Ocean City, Maryland, Part 2.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Two teams that played home games on national television in Week 2 were favored to win, yet lost outright because of their offensive lines. This happened to the Bengals and Giants. I've been saying for a while that I believe Cincinnati has the worst blocking unit in the entire NFL. Yes, worse than Seattle's. The Seahawks at least have a solid center in Justin Britt. The Bengals have absolutely nothing.
The Bengals won't be able to block Nick Perry or Clay Matthews on the edge. Mike Daniels will also be a major problem in the interior, though it's uncertain if he'll be able to play. He's day-to-day with a hamstring, so even if he suits up, he may not be 100 percent. Still, if he's on the field, he should be able to take advantage of Cincinnati's extremely poor blocking.
With Joe Mixon bottled up, Andy Dalton won't have any sort of time in the pocket. He'll struggle to connect with A.J. Green, which has been the case the first two weeks. It's a shame for Green owners, as he has a tremendous matchup versus Green Bay's woeful secondary. It'll have to be just Green and Giovani Bernard as a receiver out of the backfield, as Tyler Eifert figures to miss this game because of multiple injuries.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers couldn't block either Sunday night. David Bakhtiari was a late scratch, so Green Bay was down to its third- and fourth-string tackles. Aaron Rodgers struggled to stay upright as a result, and the Packers simply couldn't compete with the Falcons.
The Bengals have a strong defensive front with a terrific edge rush and a dominant interior player in Geno Atkins. The Packers could deal with Cincinnati's front with all hands on deck, so Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga's statuses will be extremely important. If one of them is on the field, the Packers should be fine. Having both would be a great bonus, but I think Green Bay can survive with Kyle Murphy as a starter. Justin McCray, on the other hand, should not be in the lineup.
The tackles aren't the only players who are questionable for this game. Jordy Nelson is considered 50-50 for Week 3, while Randall Cobb is day-to-day with a shoulder. I like Ty Montgomery and Martellus Bennett in this matchup, but Rodgers could be working with a skeleton crew otherwise.
RECAP: It's tough to make a call on this game because the Packers have so many injured players. A major factor is that Green Bay has a Thursday night game coming up against a divisional opponent. I could see the Packers resting a majority of their banged-up players for this reason.
All of this is a shame because I think this spread is too low. I don't think people have realized how bad the Bengals are quite yet. Unfortunately, the Packers probably won't have the manpower to take advantage of Cincinnati's incompetence. I'm still going to take Green Bay for now, but if everyone's out, I'll consider switching sides.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like Mike Daniels, Nick Perry and Randall Cobb will all miss this game. It's unclear if the tackles will play. Jordy Nelson should suit up. The Packers are so banged up that I briefly considered switching this pick to the Bengals, but then I recalled how horrible Cincinnati is right now. Plus, the Bengals will be missing Tyler Eifert.
SATURDAY NOTES: Argh, I'm changing my pick. The Packers are missing both tackles, a starting receiver, their top defensive lineman (Mike Daniels), and their best edge rusher (Nick Perry). They're also down some support players at linebacker and cornerback. The Bengals are trash, so I won't bet them, but they've had 10 days to prepare for this game. This is the best they'll be all year. If you were wondering, the sharps are all over the Bengals.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Bryan Bulaga will play, but the Packers are missing so many players. They also have to play Thursday, so I don't think they're going to be mentally sharp either. The sharps have been betting the Bengals like crazy, and I think they're right on this instance.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I was wondering if this line would cross +7 to +6.5, given the amount of sharp action on the Bengals. However, that would set Vegas up with a huge middle, so it makes sense that they'd keep it at +7. I still would take the Bengals if I had to, but luckily, I don't.
The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
The Packers have to play on Thursday night, while the Bengals will be hearing how bad they were versus the Texans for nearly two weeks.
The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
No surprise that the public is betting the Packers. The sharps are all over Cincinnati.
Percentage of money on Green Bay: 72% (25,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Bengals are 34-20 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
Packers are 35-20 ATS at home since 2010.
Aaron Rodgers is 80-50 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
Aaron Rodgers is 23-10 ATS after a loss (just 9-5 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
Opening Line: Packers -9.
Opening Total: 45.5.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Bengals 17
Bengals +7 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Under 47.5 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
Packers 27, Bengals 24
Oakland Raiders (2-0) at Washington Redskins (1-1)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 53.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -3.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Raiders -5.5.
Sunday, Sept 24, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.
It's time for a Ross Avila update! If you somehow missed it, Ross Avila, some stupid kid who is desperate for attention on my Facebook wall, challenged me this summer:
If you think this is dumb, don't tell that to Ross. This means the world to him:
Ross will be posting his picks every Saturday on my Facebook wall, so I'll relay them here when he gets around to his selections. Mine will be the five I pick for the SuperContest, which I'll analyze here each Saturday. I'll also post the picks of the top entrants, so check that link out Saturday evening.
Ross went 2-2-1 in Week 1, and he was just 2-3 this past weekend, bringing his record to 4-5-1. He won with the Texans and Steelers, but lost with the Seahawks, Rams and Saints.
Ross update: Ross still hasn't submitted his picks yet, so he stands to go 0-5 this week if he doesn't do so prior to the 1 p.m. kickoffs.
Ross update again: His picks are Raiders -3, Eagles -6, Broncos -3, Patriots -13.5 and Lions +3.
OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Redskins were able to win last week's game by pressuring Jared Goff. Not that Goff is protected poorly, but the young quarterback held on to the ball too long, as he struggled to process information. Derek Carr certainly doesn't have that issue. Plus, Carr is protected extremely well, to boot.
Ryan Kerrigan going up against Marshall Newhouse is the only plus matchup the Redskins have, so the Raiders can compensate for that. Carr should have all the time he needs to find Michael Crabtree or Amari Cooper downfield. It'll be one or the other, and I assume it'll be Crabtree, as Cooper could be locked up by Josh Norman. Either way, Carr will have plenty of opportunities with one receiver, as well as his running backs leaking out of the backfield. The Redskins have sketchy play at linebacker and especially safety.
Speaking of running backs, Marshawn Lynch figures to have a strong performance. The Redskins just surrendered 5.5 yards per carry to Todd Gurley, and Lynch looks like he's close to being his former self. With the Redskins being so focused on stopping Carr, Lynch should be able to take advantage of some wide-open running lanes created by his stout front.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins happen to be a bit banged up on this side of the ball. Robert Kelley is day to day with a rib issue, while Jordan Reed is dealing with toe and chest maladies. Reed is expected to play, but he may not be particularly effective, which is a huge missed opportunity for the Redskins to expose Oakland's awful linebackers.
Having Kirk Cousins go downfield could be more perilous. The Redskins could be without Morgan Moses, so backup Ty Nsekhe could be tasked with blocking Khalil Mack, which doesn't sound like an ideal situation.
Cousins hasn't even been all that sharp either, by the way. He barely tried anything downfield against the Rams, perhaps recognizing that his offensive line hasn't performed well lately for some reason. I'd expect a similar game plan from Cousins, as Eddie Vanderdoes and Mario Edwards could be too much for the interior to handle.
RECAP: I made this spread Raiders -5.5, so this line is 2.5 points shorter than what I think it should be. Thus, despite the public action on the Raiders, I like them to cover. They're one of the top teams in the NFL, while the Redskins are a middling squad that doesn't have the best home-field advantage. They're also pretty banged up, so I don't think they'll be able to compete with a superior squad like Oakland.
I'm taking the Raiders for three units. I'm not sure why this number is so short, but I believe in Oakland, as the team has a big advantage in almost every aspect against the Redskins.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Mason Foster may miss this game for the Redskins, which will only help the Raiders. I still like Oakland for a few units.
SATURDAY NOTES: There's so much action on the Raiders in this chase game. I think something weird may happen; I just have a bad feeling. I'm going to drop this to two units, though I might move back up to three if Josh Norman is ruled out.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some juice is being placed on the Raiders. I wouldn't blame you if you locked this in at -3, but I'm going to wait.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I wasn't happy to see my prediction about the Oakland juice come true, but this line is now -3 -125 in most places. The public is all over the Raiders, while the sharps want nothing to do with the Redskins. This is a major chase game, as the public took a major beating today, so even though I like the Raiders, I don't want to go above two units on them. If you like the Redskins (with Jordan Reed out), by the way, you can get +4 -105 at Bovada.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
The public is on the Raiders.
Percentage of money on Oakland: 79% (25,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Raiders are 18-31 ATS after a win since 2009.
Redskins are 8-19 ATS in September home games since 2001.
Opening Line: Raiders -3.5.
Opening Total: 53.5.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Raiders 34, Redskins 26
Raiders -3 -125 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$250
Over 53.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Redskins 27, Raiders 10
Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.
Walt's Calculated Line: Cowboys -1.
Monday, Sept 25, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of Arizona, where the horrible Dallas Cowboys take on the Phoenix Cardinals. Guys, I really want the Phoenix Cardinals to beat these a**hole Cowboys, who shouldn't be allowed to use Zeke Elliott. But before we get to that, the producers are telling me that we have to go down to our new sideline reporter, Sergio Dipp.
Sergio Dipp: Kevin, Coach, it's a pleasure to be with you guys, here on the field, from up close and personal, just watching coach Jason Witten from here. You can watch him now on the screen. His diversity and his background is helping him a lot tonight. Coach Witten has red hair, so he's probably Irish, and so he brings Irish diversity to the team. As for his background, he has a picture of a beach on the background of his computer. Here he is, having the time of his life, and he never felt this way before. Yes I swear, it's the truth. And I owe it all to you. Back to you guys in the booth!
Reilly: What the hell was that!? I don't even care about the Cowboys anymore! Get this Sergio Dipp a**hole out of here!
Emmitt: Dipp, what are Sergio... uhh... I already forgetted him's last name, the name that is last. What are Sergio talking about? He say somethin' about the country of Irish, which remind me of the soap I use sometime, uhh... somethin' Spring, I forgetted what the first name are, but it have somethin' to do with Irish.
Herm: IT'S IRISH SPRING! IRISH SPRING! THAT'S THE NAME OF THE SOAP! THAT HAPPENS TO BE THE NAME OF THE SOAP! THAT'S WHAT THE SOAP IS CALLED! THAT'S WHAT THE SOAP IS NAMED! IT'S IRISH SOAP! I MEAN IRISH SPRING! THE SPRING THAT IS IRISH! THE IRISH THAT IS SPRING! WAIT, THAT MAKES NO SENSE! IT MAKES NO SENSE!? I MAKE NO SENSE! I... uhh...
Tollefson: Haha, hey guys, this Sergio Dipp guy seems like a virgin! Hey, Sergio, I bet you've never forced a woman to cook and clean naked for you! What a loser! I must have forced thousands of women to cook and clean naked for me, and if they don't listen, I lock them in the basement!
Millen: Tolly, do you really think Sergio Dipp is a virgin? Oh my, Sergio, are you there? Please come to my hotel room later. Room 719. I have ripe kielbasas ready for your fresh backside. If you think Jason Witten has never felt this way before, you're in for quite a surprise, my young stallion!
Wolfley: MATT MILLEN, I HAVE TO APOLOGIZE. I WENT INTO YOUR ROOM BEFORE THE GAME AND I ATE ALL THE KIELBASAS. BUT BEFORE YOU START BLAMING ME, I SAW A CHRISTMAS TREE WEARING A PINK BLOUSE WHO TOLD ME TO DO THIS, SO I WAS JUST FOLLOWING INSTRUCTIONS.
Millen: You idiot! How could you eat my precious kielbasas!? Kielbasas aren't for the mouth! They're for the backside!
Fouts: And here's what he means by backside. There's a side, and it's in the back, so it's a backside. This is the opposite of a frontside, which is where there's a side and it's in the front. This is only partly different than the leftside, which is where there's a side and it's on the right. And this is the complete opposite of the rightside, which is where there's a side and it's on the left. I may have confused my right and my left, but that is because I have a medical condition where I can't tell the difference between right and left, so we have to wonder why I was even chosen to discuss leftsides and rightsides.
Reilly: You weren't chosen to do this! You just started talking, and you kept rambling, like that idiot Sergio Dipp!
Charles Davis: Kevin, I hear you want to talk about dips, Kevin. What a great suggestion, Kevin. Let's begin with queso, dip, Kevin. Queso is Spanish for cheese, Kevin. Let's talk about salsa dip, Kevin. What about bean dip, Kevin? How about guacamole, Kevin? Let's chat about crab dip, Kevin. Don't forget about the hummus, Kevin. Why don't you talk about your favorite dip, Kevin. Name a dip, Kevin. There are no wrong answers, Kevin. Oh, you guessed pepperoni pizza, Kevin? There's no such thing as pepperoni pizza dip, Kevin. So, you're wrong, Kevin!
Reilly: I DON'T GIVE A F*** IF I'M WRONG, AND I DON'T CARE ABOUT YOUR F***ING DIPS! I'LL PUT YOU AND SERGIO DIPP ON A ROCKET SHIP AND THEN I'LL STEAL ONE OF KING JONG IL'S BOMBS AND I'LL THROW IT AT THE ROCKET SHIP AND YOU'LL ALL BLOW UP AND DIE HAHAHAHAHA! We'll be back after this!
DALLAS OFFENSE: I have the Cowboys listed as an overrated team because their offensive line isn't what it used to be. With Ronald Leary gone, they have two holes up front. The unit couldn't block at all against the Broncos, and they could have similar issues against the Cardinals. Robert Nkemdiche wasn't very effective at Indianapolis, but with another week to get healthy, he should be closer to 100 percent for this contest. Meanwhile, Markus Golden has gotten off to a rough start to his season, but I like his matchup against the struggling La'el Collins.
The Cardinals should be able to clamp down on the run, especially with Nkemdiche rounding back to full strength. I don't think they'll be able to limit Ezekiel Elliott to fewer than one yard per carry, like the Broncos did last week, but I don't think Elliott will dominate this game either.
With Elliott less imposing, there is more on Dak Prescott's plate. It doesn't help that Dez Bryant has battled nothing but elite cornerbacks thus far. He's gone up against Janoris Jenkins and Aqib Talib thus far, and now he'll have to get open versus Patrick Peterson. Jason Witten could have a solid performance, just as Jack Doyle did versus Arizona last week, but that's about it. With less time in the pocket, Prescott should continue to struggle.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: Speaking of teams with offensive line struggles, I don't know what the hell the Cardinals are doing with Jared Veldheer. They had an excellent blind-side protector in Veldheer, yet they shifted him to right tackle, where he's been awful. I never understood the move in the first place, as it was done to get D.J. Humphries to left tackle for some reason. Humphries isn't even playing right now, so why can't Veldheer move back to his natural spot?
Elsewhere, Mike Iupati is also hurt. It's unclear if he'll be able to play, which is obviously bad news because Alex Boone struggled in his place last week. The result of all of this is more pressure on Carson Palmer, who was harassed quite often by the Colts last week, and yet Indianapolis has a very weak pass rush. The same can be described of the Cowboys, though DeMarcus Lawrence and Tyrone Crawford are both playing very well. They should be able to provide ample pressure on Palmer.
It would be nice if the Cardinals had David Johnson to help Palmer, but he won't be around until late in the year. Palmer, however, will have an opportunity to torch Dallas' secondary if he does happen to get time in the pocket. The Cowboys could once again be without Orlando Scandrick. Trevor Siemian scorched the Scandrick-less Dallas secondary, though his offensive line was able to shield him fairly well.
RECAP: I wish the Cardinals could get their linemen back from injury because I think this is a great spot for them. They've played both of their games on the road thus far in early starts, so they'll be more comfortable back at home in front of their loud fans. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are an overrated entity right now because they no longer have a great offensive line.
However, I'm concerned about Arizona's blocking as well. Perhaps the team will be able to skate by this week versus a weak Dallas defense, but it's still a concern.
That said, I still like the Cardinals for multiple units. I couldn't decide between two and three, so I'll go with the latter because I plan on increasing this bet if Iupati is able to return. Arizona always plays better as a host, so I like it as a home dog against a team that has taken a step backward.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm still waiting on updates for the Arizona linemen. However, it sounds like Dak Prescott is banged up. He'll play, but will he be 100 percent because of his ankle?
SATURDAY NOTES: There's a chance that Mike Iupati will play. The same goes for Deone Bucannon. I still like the Cardinals here, as this line is too high. People haven't caught on that the Cowboys aren't as good as they were last year. Arizona is +3.5 -115 at Bovada.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have begun pounding the Cardinals. The best line available is +3 -120. I don't want to lock that in, as there might be better opportunities on Monday. If not, then there's always next week.
MONDAY EVENING NOTES: The Cardinals +3.5 -115 at Bovada seems like a great number, and I'm going to lock that in. Perhaps we'll get a better line later, but I'm comfortable with it. I'll have more thoughts later around 8 p.m.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This line hasn't changed, so I at least got that aspect of this selection correct. I think the Cardinals are the right play. This is the first time all year that they're not playing a road game on a 1 p.m. East Coast start. They're much better at home, and they're battling a Cowboy team that has regressed from last year. The public is betting the Cowboys, while the sharps have leaned toward the Cardinals at +3 and pounded them heavily at +3.5 earlier in the week.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
No surprise that the public is betting the Cowboys.
Percentage of money on Dallas: 68% (99,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
Cowboys are 3-7 ATS after losing as a favorite.
The underdog is 72-42 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
Cardinals are 28-13 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.
Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.
Opening Total: 47.5.
Week 3 NFL Pick: Cowboys 21, Cardinals 20
Cardinals +3.5 -115 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$345
Under 46.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
Cowboys 28, Cardinals 17
Week 3 NFL Picks - Early Games
LA Rams at San Francisco,
Baltimore at Jacksonville,
Miami at NY Jets,
Pittsburgh at Chicago,
Denver at Buffalo,
Cleveland at Indianapolis,
NY Giants at Philadelphia,
Atlanta at Detroit,
New Orleans at Carolina,
Houston at New England,
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Teaser: Lions +9, Seahawks +8.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Moneyline: Lions +135 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
Moneyline: Cardinals +140 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
NFL Picks - Jan. 17
2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11
2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14
2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14
2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0)
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)