NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 11, 5:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 9. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -7.
Thursday, Sept 7, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

A year ago, I wrote that I was more excited for a season than I had been in a very long time.

As most of you know, I’ve been in a picking funk this decade. I didn’t endure a losing season from 2003 to 2010, but I’ve been in the red in four of the past five years. The first half of last season was especially brutal, as I was down $6,000 at some point. This occurred on Thanksgiving weekend, which is when I did some inner soul searching and realized that I had to stop being stubborn and change what I was doing.

The result was the hottest 8-week stretch I’ve ever enjoyed. In those eight weeks, I finished in the black every time, resulting in a gain of more than $4,000. I was confident that if I had two more weeks, I could’ve finished in the black entirely!

So, what changed? For the most part, I stopped looking at trends. Those killed me. I fell in love with trends in 2010, and they worked for a year, but they absolutely buried me in the long run. They just made so much sense to me, but I’ve come to realize that they are mostly meaningless. I think it’s still important to look at teams going into a London game or a Thursday night contest, but they are largely irrelevant, and I won’t be relying on them anymore. Instead, I’ll be doing what I once did: actually handicapping the games.

My strategy worked, at least in the first half of the season. I was up about $5,500 at one point, and I was tied for 12th in the Westgate Supercontest after Week 8. Unfortunately, I ended the year on a cold streak. I still finished in the black overall, but I was up only $1,055. I would’ve killed for that sum during one of my horrible years, but after a $5,500 start, it was quite the disappointing finish.

Something I believe is that suffering losses is OK if you genuinely learn something, and I did. Late in the year, I wasn’t really finding good values because I didn’t pay close attention to the conditions of the teams. Injuries, particularly those to offensive linemen, were huge, as I discovered when I was re-watching the 2016 season this summer. For example, the Browns were a covering machine early in the year. I continued to bet them in the second half of the season, but they constantly let me down. Why was this? Well, the issues started when Joel Bitonio suffered an injury. Sportsbooks aren’t going to make adjustments to an injury to a guard, but Bitonio’s absence was huge. Bitonio is one of the top guards in the NFL, and the Browns couldn’t run the ball effectively without him. As a result, they stopped covering.

Here’s another example: The Ravens were very banged up in October. They were missing three starting offensive linemen in two games, and they lost both contests to the Giants and Jets (!!). However, once the blockers returned, they transformed into a great team to wager on down the stretch. They crushed the playoff-bound Dolphins and nearly upset the Steelers.

With this new knowledge, I’m going to do what I did in 2016, but I’m going to incorporate the impact injuries can have, particularly those on the offensive line. The public doesn’t pay attention to those, and the oddsmakers don’t need to adjust as a result.

Even better, you’ll have plenty of chances to win money regardless of how I do. Our WalterFootball.com NFL Survivor Pool is back! It’s free entry, and the winner gets $350. We’re also going to have two other contests, including our weekly fantasy game!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots lost Julian Edelman to an unfortunate season-ending injury in an exhibition game, but they’re still loaded with talent on offense. Rob Gronkowski didn’t even play during the Super Bowl stretch last year, and now Brandin Cooks has joined the roster. Meanwhile, Chris Hogan will likely fill Edelman’s role in the Patriots’ “next man up” menatality that has worked so well over the years.

The scoring attack will have their hands full with Kansas City’s defense, which is one of the better stop units in the NFL. The Chiefs seem to have the personnel to deal with most of the Patriots’ weapons. Marcus Peters is a great cornerback, and he should be able to lock up Cooks pretty well. Gronkowski will be a challenge for the Chiefs, but they have Eric Berry and Ramik Wilson, who are two very talented players at their position.

The ultimate key for the Chiefs slowing down Tom Brady is applying pressure on him without blitzing. Brady is arguably the best quarterback of all time, but even he has struggled versus potent four-man pass rushes, as we’ve seen in the two Super Bowl losses to the Giants. Kansas City has the personnel to get there; Justin Houston is one of the best edge rushers in the NFL, and he’s at full strength after two injury-ridden campaigns. Right tackle Marcus Cannon is coming off a great year, but I don’t think he’ll be able to handle Houston. Meanwhile, Chris Jones is a talented interior player who will create havoc versus some of New England’s pedestrian blockers, Joe Thuney and David Andrews.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: While the Chiefs boast a dynamic pass rush, the Patriots can’t say the same thing. In fact, it might be one of the weakest such units in the NFL. There was some promise with third-round rookie Derek Rivers, but he suffered a season-ending injury as well. Now, all New England has is Trey Flowers, though he has a slight edge against beleaguered left tackle Eric Fisher, whom Kansas City refuses to upgrade.

The Patriots are extremely strong elsewhere, however. They own two legitimate shutdown cornerbacks in Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore to take care of the Chiefs’ lackluster receiving corps. Travis Kelce is the best weapon Kansas City has on offense, but between Dont’a Hightower and Devin McCourty, the Patriots can answer dynamic tight ends. They were one of the best teams at limiting tight end production this past season.

I don’t think the Chiefs will have much success running the ball either. While New England doesn’t have dynamic pass-rushers, the team has compensated with defenders who are strong versus ground attacks. Alan Branch, Malcom Brown and Lawrence Guy should all be able to keep Kareem Hunt in check, at least as a runner.

RECAP: How great are the Patriots? Sure, they’re one of the best teams in the NFL, but are they exceptional enough to be nine-point favorites versus another top-10 NFL squad? I’m not so sure, and I wasn’t last year during the team’s Super Bowl run when they defeated Brock Osweiler, the Le’Veon Bell-less Steelers and the Falcons, whom they trailed 28-3. I was skeptical because the Patriots beat no one during the regular season; their best victory came against either the Dolphins or the Ravens. With Brady, they defeated the Browns (terrible), Bengals (missed the playoffs), Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play), Bills, 49ers, Jets twice, Rams, Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins. Aside from Miami and Pittsburgh, which was missing Roethlisberger, none of those teams qualified for the postseason.

I want to stress that this is not an attack on the Patriots. I believe they’re one of the best teams in the league – I have them second in my NFL Power Rankings – but having them favored by nine over another playoff contender doesn’t seem right.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have to love this. They’re completely disrespected, as no one is giving them a shot to win. Andy Reid has thrived in these instances, owning a 12-5 spread record as an underdog of 6.5 or more points. Also, the last time he battled the Patriots was in a playoff tilt during the 2015 season. His team lost, but only by seven.

I like Kansas City in this matchup. It’s not a huge bet because it’s frightening to go against Brady and Bill Belichick, but I have no issue with starting off the 2017 campaign with a two-unit wager.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped a bit, as it’s +8.5 or even +8 in most places. This is sharp money betting the Chiefs, and I agree with the movement. This spread is still +9 at Bovada, so I’ll be locking that in right now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on the Chiefs, but not an overwhelming amount. This spread is -8 in some places, but the best line for Kansas City is +9 -105 at Bovada, so I’m upset I locked it in a bit early. Still, I like the Chiefs a bit, as this spread is too high. The Patriots didn’t have any marquee victories last year prior to the AFC Championship, so this number is inflated. Also, Matthew Slater is out. He’s a great special-teams player, so he’ll be missed when New England attempts to defend Tyreek Hill.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
The public is betting the Patriots, of course.

Percentage of money on New England: 63% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Andy Reid is 12-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000.

Tom Brady is 207-65 as a starter (152-107 ATS).

Tom Brady is 30-31 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (19-24 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Patriots 30, Chiefs 24
Chiefs +9 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 42, Patriots 27

New York Jets (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -9.5.
Sunday, Sept 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bills.

My overrated-underrated feature will return in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Cleveland Browns: The Browns are definitely not one of the worst teams in the NFL this year. At least not yet. They have a stellar offensive line that I would rank in the top five of all blocking units. They’ll be able to run the ball extremely well, and they have some solid pieces on defense. DeShone Kizer’s inexperience is a problem, but Corey Coleman looked great in the preseason, so he should be able to help the rookie through his growing pains.

Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers were another team that covered the spread often early in 2016. Injuries took a huge toll on them, and they finished the year sluggishly, even losing to the Browns. However, they’re mostly healthy now. They have a dynamic offense, while their defense is extremely underrated. If the Chargers’ injury report stays fairly empty throughout the year, they can make a deep playoff run.

Los Angeles Rams: Not only did Jared Goff not win any games last year; he didn’t even cover a single point spread! Goff now has two terrific tutors in Sean McVay and Greg Olson. Another huge factor is the offensive line. The Rams had a truly atrocious blocking unit in 2016, but with Andrew Whitworth and Jon Sullivan providing upgrades, the Rams now possess a capable offensive front.

New Orleans Saints: Ask any Joe Public bettor to analyze the Saints, and they’ll say something like, “Great offense, but their defense is trash.” I think New Orleans’ stop unit will be better than people think this year. First-round rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore looks like a stud, while fellow rookie linebacker Alex Anzalone was also impressive in preseason action. Sheldon Rankins should also be more impactful, now that he’s healthy and has experience.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Carolina Panthers: Everyone is going gaga for Christian McCaffrey, but can the Panthers even block for him? They still have their issues up front, and I’m not convinced Cam Newton is healthy. Meanwhile, the defense still isn’t the same without Josh Norman, and now Thomas Davis is old. I’m also not convinced the Panthers can generate a consistent pass rush outside of Kawann Short.

Cincinnati Bengals: Save for the Seahawks, the Bengals could have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Their tackles are trash, and they have just one viable starting blocker (Clint Boling). Meanwhile, their defense is missing some key players, including Vontaze Burfict who has been suspended for three games.

Denver Broncos: I think everyone still views the Broncos as the team that won the Super Bowl two years ago, but this team is a far cry from that squad. It’s not just the quarterbacking situation that’s woeful; the offensive line also happens to be in shambles. Meanwhile, the defense isn’t as strong as it once was. DeMarcus Ware is gone; Shane Ray is out until November with a wrist injury; T.J. Ward is gone; Derek Wolfe is not 100 percent (by his own admission); and the linebacking corps is very shaky.

New York Giants: Speaking of teams that have poor offensive lines, the Giants have done nothing to improve their blocking. I have a tough time seeing them earning another playoff spot this year, especially now that Brandon Marshall is on the roster (clearly, subtraction by addition). They were actually extremely lucky last season, as they easily could’ve finished 7-9 or so. They trailed the Rams in London; they barely beat the pedestrian Bengals; they got to battle the Ravens when they were missing three blockers, and they still barely won that game. I can go on and on, but luck may not be on the Giants’ side this year.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I find it amusing that we don’t know who Buffalo’s quarterback will be for this game, yet a line is still posted everywhere. I guess that says a lot about Tyrod Taylor, who was woeful in the preseason prior to suffering an concussion. To be a bit fair to Taylor, he was trying to play offense without his best play-maker, Sammy Watkins, and talented left tackle Cordy Glenn. Still, he didn’t look like a quarterback who should be starting in the NFL.

Fortunately for either Taylor or fifth-round rookie Nathan Peterman, they won’t face much resistance versus the Jets, who have a poor defense, especially in the wake of the Sheldon Richardson trade. Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson are probably New York’s best players, though Wilkerson was pretty horrible last year. Outside of right tackle, the Bills have a pretty capable blocking unit, so it’ll be interesting if Jordan Jenkins, a 2016 third-rounder who showed a bit of promise as a rookie, can take advantage of that matchup.

Otherwise, the Jets don’t really have anything going on defensively. They spent their first two draft choices on safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye, but both made their mistakes in the preseason. Cornerback Morris Claiborne was signed, but he’s a one-year wonder, so I’m not confident in his abilities. The Bills should be able to move the chains, albeit inconsistently because they have no dynamic threats in the passing game, unless, of course, you want to count LeSean McCoy, who should be able to run circles around the Jets’ pathetic linebacking corps.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: As bad as the Jets are on defense, they’re much worse offensively. They’re starting Josh McCown, for crying out loud. They really wanted Christian Hackenberg to win the job, and they were pleased with some of the work he did in the spring, but he was so woeful during training camp and the preseason that they had to give McCown the nod because McCown won’t embarrass himself at least.

The problem for McCown, aside from his lacking talent, is that he won’t have a chance behind his horrific offensive line. The Jets have one of the worst blocking units in the NFL. I don’t know how they’re going to keep Jerry Hughes, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Shaq Lawson out of the backfield. Running the ball will also be problematic for this reason.

McCown won’t have any time to try anything downfield, so he’ll have to settle for checkdowns to Matt Forte and Bilal Powell. This will work to move the chains on occasion, and it could lead to a score or two, but this type of offensive attack will be largely ineffective. To put New York’s offense in context, the team scored three points in two drives versus Philadelphia’s third-string defense in the preseason finale.

RECAP: This is a tough one to figure out. On one hand, the Bills are a bad team that’s favored by way too many points. On the other hand, the Jets are the worst team I’ve ever graded. Even the 0-16 Lions had more talent than this squad. The Jets are just broken, and I don’t want to wager on them at all this year.

I really got stuck on this, but I’m looking at the Pinnacle line, and they’re listing the Bills at -9.5. That’s screaming for Jets action, which I think is relevant because Pinnacle is the sharpest sportsbook out there. With that in mind, I’m going to lay the eight with Taylor or Peterman, but there’s no way in hell I’m betting on this nonsense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bills moved up a bit to -8.5 once it was announced that Tyrod Taylor would play. I’m slightly more confident in the Bills now, but not enough to bet on them. I do think they’ll win outright, however, so this is my Week 1 Survivor pick.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are taking the Jets, which isn’t a surprise to me. This line is too high for a team that simply isn’t very good. I get that. However, this Jets team might be one of the worst squads we’ve ever seen. They seem broken, so I don’t want any part of them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is down to -7 -115. Crazy! It’s giving me the urge to bet the Bills, but I just can’t. I don’t want to touch this game, and I don’t understand all the sharp money on the Jets.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Sharp money is coming in on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 65% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 5 of the last 7 meetings (home team has won 7 of the last 10).

Jets are 11-6 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

True home teams are 34-25 ATS in the last 59 Bills games.

Opening Line: Bills -6.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Bills 19, Jets 9
Bills -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (0-0)
Bills 21, Jets 12

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 6.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: .
Sunday, Sept 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. As for this week, here are the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:

Panthers -6

Falcons -7

Saints +3.5

Bengals -3

Texans -5.5

These sorts of teams were 39-34-1 last year, as the sportsbooks were slaughtered by the public.

Naturally, most of these teams are favorites, with the top two being on the road. The Saints +3.5 is the black sheep of this group.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan surprisingly struggled in the third preseason game, but I don’t think he’ll remain in a funk for too long. The reigning MVP is still paired with Julio Jones, a dynamic rushing attack, and one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.

The blocking unit should hold up against the Bears, who are once again missing Pernell McPhee. They still have Leonard Floyd, but he’ll have a challenge against Atlanta’s talented tackles. The one edge the Bears have up front is Akiem Hicks going up against rookie guard Wes Schweitzer, but I have to believe that the Falcons will scheme to ensure that Hicks doesn’t dominate the game because that’s the one advantage Chicago has.

Speaking of edges, I have no idea how the Bears are going to deal with Jones. They have a poor cornerback group, so even Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel will be able to generate good chunks of offense. Jones, however, will be on another level, and I could see him going off like he did versus Carolina last year.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While Ryan didn’t perform up to standards in his preseason dress rehearsal, Mike Glennon thrived – at least until he lost Cameron Meredith to a brutal knee injury. That was a shame, as Meredith was looking like he would develop into a talented receiver. Now, the Bears have very little at the position. Glennon will be throwing to the lackluster Kevin White and inconsistent Kendall Wright. He’ll be doing this against a talented secondary that will be getting Desmond Trufant back from injury.

Another challenge Glennon will have is handling Atlanta’s edge rush. The Bears have a pair of underwhelming tackles in Charles Leno and Bobby Massie, and I have no idea how they’re going to handle Vic Beasley and rookie Takk McKinley, who was very impressive in preseason action.

Chicago’s best chance of moving the chains will be via the ground game. Jordan Howard had an impressive rookie campaign in 2016. Unfortunately for Howard, he may not have Kyle Long available in this contest. That’s huge, as the interior offensive line is the strength of the Bears’ scoring unit. Long, Cody Whitehair and Josh Sitton form a terrific trio, but if Long is out, someone named Hroniss Grasu has to start at center and take on Dontari Poe, which doesn’t sound like an ideal situation.

RECAP: The Falcons should be able to handle the Bears pretty easily, as there’s just too much of a talent disparity, especially if Long is out for Chicago. However, I’m not so sure about laying seven on the road in the opening week of the season. The Falcons could be flat off their Super Bowl loss, and they also have to open their new stadium versus the Packers next week, so they could be distracted because of that as well. This is a zero-unit selection for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not betting this game because the Falcons could be distracted – plus, Pernell McPhee actually playing could help the Bears – but if you want to bet Atlanta, I’d prefer -7 +100 over the -6.5 -115 that’s available in some books. Reduced juice is very important, and seven isn’t the same sort of key number that three happens to be.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sharp money has dropped this spread, so I think a nice opportunity has opened up on the Falcons. I’m still concerned that they could be unfocused, but they’re so much better than Chicago. If they’re prepared, they should dominate this game. The Falcons even have the injury edge on their side. It looks like Kyle Long will be out, according to the beat writers. That’s absolutely huge, as Chicago will have just two viable starting linemen without Long. Prince Amukamara, meanwhile, is doubtful. The Bears’ secondary will be a train wreck without him. With the new line value, I’m going to place a small bet on Atlanta, taking the -6 -105 currently available at CRIS for two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen back up to -6.5, perhaps because Kyle Long is officially out. The Bears have just two viable starting linemen, and their secondary is a mess. This game will get ugly if the Falcons are focused.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons look past the Bears. They have their new stadium opening next week in what happens to be a rematch of the NFC Championship.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

No one is interested in betting Chicago.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 81% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Bears are 9-19 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Falcons -7.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Falcons 34, Bears 24
Falcons -6.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 23, Bears 17

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
Line: Texans by 6. Total: 38.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -4.5.
Sunday, Sept 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting lots of hate mail this season. Here’s an example of what I saw during the Super Bowl:

This Ross Avila person told me I was an idiot for betting the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Oops!

Ross kept going…

For purposes of context, Ross sells women’s shoes, like Al Bundy. Except he never scored four touchdowns in a single game.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans had a shaky offense to begin with, but scoring will be much more difficult for them with left tackle Duane Brown holding out. It sounds as though Brown will miss the season opener, meaning the starting tackles will be Kendall Lamm and Breno Giacomini. They’ll be charged with blocking Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, and I just don’t know how they’re going to accomplish that. Houston at least has a better interior with Nick Martin and Jeff Allen, so there’s a chance Malik Jackson and Abry Jones will be kept out of the backfield.

Overall, I don’t anticipate the Texans pass protecting well, and I don’t think they’ll run block effectively either. The Jaguars have some talent in their defensive front seven, so they should be able to keep Lamar Miller in check.

DeAndre Hopkins, meanwhile, could have a good game if Tom Savage gets time in the pocket to locate him downfield. Jalen Ramsey had a solid rookie campaign for the Texans, but I don’t think he’ll be able to deal with Hopkins. The lack of passing opportunities for Savage should help Ramsey, however. Savage’s next-best option could be going to Bruce Ellington in the slot. Ellington, now healthy, has been a surprise for the Texans, and he has a plus matchup.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Like the Texans, the Jaguars have some glaring issues up front. Their left tackle is better than Houston’s edge blockers, but it’s fair to wonder by how much exactly. Second-round rookie Cam Robinson will be charged with protecting Blake Bortles’ blind side, which will be very problematic against Jadeveon Clowney. Meanwhile, Whitney Mercilus also has a big advantage versus mediocre right tackle Jermey Parnell.

I haven’t even mentioned J.J. Watt, and he should be able to dominate as well. Watt struggled in limited action last year because he was playing injured, but it seems as though he’s now close to 100 percent. With all of this pressure, Bortles is sure to make some mistakes. I anticipate him throwing a few interceptions, one of which will be a pick-six. It’s utterly embarrassing that the Jaguars named him the starter. Bortles refuses to watch film, opting to party hard instead. This is a horrible message to send to the rest of the team. It made more sense to cut Bortles than to start him, yet the inept Doug Marrone has opted to do the latter.

At any rate, the Jaguars’ only chance of moving the chains consistently will be via Leonard Fournette. The dynamic rookie won’t have good blocking, but Houston’s defensive line outside of Watt isn’t very good, so there might be some opportunities for the LSU product.

RECAP: Both teams have major blocking issues, but the Texans should be able to win this game because of Bortles’ incompetence. However, the one thing Bortles is good at is throwing late touchdowns in garbage time, so if I were betting Houston, I would fear that Bortles would heave a back-door score to cover the spread in the final minutes.

Also, there are a couple of other elements to consider. First, Houston plays on Thursday night in Week 2, so the team could have one eye on its matchup versus the Bengals. And second, the Texans could still be distracted by Hurricane Harvey. The devastating storm ravaged Houston, and many of the players may not have been able to completely focus on this game as a result. Thus, I’m not going to bet the Texans, but I don’t want any part of the Jaguars either unless I’m getting a full touchdown.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still passing on this game. There are just too many unknowns concerning the Texans with the Hurricane Harvey ramifications. Blake Bortles is trash, but I could see him getting a back-door score in this contest. Plus, Duane Brown being out is really going to hurt the Texans.

SATURDAY NOTES: Three things of note here. First, a reader pointed out that I brought up the Texans’ dealings with Hurricane Harvey, yet didn’t question Jacksonville’s reaction to Hurricane Irma. I don’t know how much Irma is going to impact Jacksonville, but it’s a fair point. Second, another strike against the Jaguars is the injury to Tashaun Gipson, who is questionable with an ankle. Jacksonville has nothing of note behind Gipson, so if he’s hurt, the team will be worse versus the pass. That said, I’m not sure Tom Savage can take advantage of that, given Houston’s blocking issues. Third, I’m going to try my hand on some over-unders this year. I’m going to wager half of a unit on 2-4 totals each week to see how it goes. I’m taking the under in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Based on what all the pre-game shows are saying, it’s a given the Texans will win, based on the emotion to prevail for the victims of Hurricane Harvey. I’m actually wishing I took the Texans, but I don’t feel strongly enough to change my selection. I’m not betting this game, so I guess it doesn’t matter either way.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Texans play on Thursday night in Week 2, and their preparation could be lacking as a result of Hurricane Harvey.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Everyone is down on the Jaguars, as usual.

Percentage of money on Houston: 77% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 11 of the last 13 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 16, Jaguars 13
Jaguars +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 38 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Jaguars 29, Texans 7

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 1. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -3.
Sunday, Sept 10, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

I was asked where my NFL Season Over-Under Win Bets are. You can find them by clicking the link. Also, our weekly fantasy football contest is returning. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Redskins swept the Eagles last year, and a major reason for this was Lane Johnson’s absence. The All-Pro right tackle was suspended for 10 games in 2016, and the first contest he missed was Philadelphia’s initial matchup with Washington. Ryan Kerrigan, one of the top players on the Redskin defense, was able to dominate the backup right tackle, generating major heat on Carson Wentz. As a result, the Eagles legitimately lost their first game of the season (really, their second loss, but only because Ryan Mathews lost a fumble with a minute remaining the previous week.)

Johnson is back on the field now, so Kerrigan won’t have a huge mismatch like he did in the two meetings last year. This will give Wentz plenty of time in the pocket for a change, and he should be able to have a good game against a Redskins secondary missing starting safety Su’a Cravens. Wentz has more weapons at his disposal this year, though I don’t expect him to be able to target Alshon Jeffery all that often because of Josh Norman’s coverage. Zach Ertz figures to have a huge performance, however, as the Redskins struggled versus tight ends in 2016. Ertz caught fire down the stretch last year, and I expect that to translate into great production early this season.

The running game is the one weakness of Philadelphia’s scoring attack, but I think it can be remedied. The team seems to be using LeGarrette Blount incorrectly. He should only be utilized in short-yardage opportunities. The Eagles have attempted to run him outside in the preseason, which failed frequently. Wendell Smallwood should be the primary ball-carrier, with Darren Sproles continuing to serve as a pass-catching weapon out of the backfield.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Last year, the Redskins were able to dominate the Eagles because of Philadelphia’s offensive line concerns. This season, it’s Washington that has those issues. Center Spencer Long could miss this game with a knee injury. Sixth-round rookie Chase Roullier may have to start in his place. Even if Long suits up, he may not be 100 percent. This will be very problematic versus a fierce Philadelphia defensive front, featuring Fletcher Cox and the newly acquired Timmy Jernigan.

With two weaknesses in the interior – also, guard Shawn Lauvao – I don’t expect the Redskins to be able to run the ball very well. Pass protecting will also be an issue versus Cox, Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry, so Kirk Cousins won’t have much time in the pocket to locate new receiver Terrelle Pryor. Cousins and Pryor weren’t even on the same page in the preseason, so that combination could struggle, at least initially.

Cousins could have more success going to the familiar Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder early in the year. I like Crowder’s matchup here, but Reed has a tough one. The Eagles have an outstanding linebacking corps that locked down on tight ends in 2016. That should once again be the case this season.

RECAP: I have the Eagles rated very highly in my NFL Power Rankings. I believe they have a good chance to make a deep run in the playoffs, as they are a team with some very important strengths (offensive line, front seven), an improving quarterback, some interesting offensive weapons, and no major weaknesses overall. The Redskins, meanwhile, are a declining team that lost some key personnel this spring.

The Eagles are much better than the Redskins, especially with Cravens and potentially Long out. They should be favored by at least three in this contest. There’s some definite line value here, though I wish the Redskins were favored so we could get more of it. Still, this is one of my top plays of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not backing off my prediction that the Eagles will go 12-4. I think they start with a victory in Washington. The one thing that has changed is that it sounds like Redskins center Spencer Long is going to play after all, but he may not be 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s no word yet on Spencer Long. It sounds like he’s going to play, but as mentioned, he may not be healthy. And speaking of key injuries, Jamison Crowder, Kirk Cousins’ second-best option, is also banged up. I still love the Eagles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I woke up today realizing that I should have five units on the Eagles. I’m so confident in them this year that I should put my money where my mouth is. It’s a bummer that Spencer Long will be playing, but there was interesting news this morning that Jordan Reed is playing on a fractured toe and won’t be completely healthy. That means both of Kirk Cousins’ favorite weapons are banged up. The Eagles are much better than the Redskins, and I’ll be shocked if they lose this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles clearly remember getting swept by the Redskins last year.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

There’s a lot of sharp money coming in on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 68% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Redskins have won the last 5 meetings.

Redskins are 8-18 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Eagles 30, Redskins 20
Eagles -1 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 30, Redskins 17

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -1.
Sunday, Sept 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’d like to start with some of the new announcers we’ve gotten (or almost gotten) this season. First of all, thank the lord that Phil Simms is gone. If I had to hear him answer his own questions once again, I think I was going to lose my mind. Second, I believe Tony Romo is going to be great in the booth.

Third, I didn’t know what to think of Jay Cutler before he signed with the Dolphins. He was so lethargic at times as a player, appearing as though he didn’t give a damn about winning or losing. What if he happened to be the same way as an announcer? I could see the following exchange happen:

Play-by-play Guy: What a great play!

Jay Cutler: Sorry, I wasn’t paying attention.

Play-by-play Guy: Here’s the replay, Jay. What do you see here?

Jay Cutler: I dunno, I don’t care.

2. E-mailer Kevin J. pointed this out to me. Todd Bowles was giving a press conference and was asked about some players (i.e. Muhammad Wilkerson) being late to meetings and whatnot. Here’s what he said:

“Sometimes people are late for work, sometimes they miss the alarm clock. It’s not a big deal.”

It’s amazing how much of a difference there is between Bowles and the other New York team’s former coach. Tom Coughlin used to decapitate players who weren’t early. Bowles, on the other hand, doesn’t even care!

I think we have a good idea of which team might be the league’s worst this year. I wouldn’t recommend gambling on horrible teams like the Jets, especially after seeing what happened to abysmal teams last year; the Rams, Browns and 49ers never covered, and the same may happen with the Jets this season.

3. I’d like to conclude this segment by mentioning a charity I donated to this summer. This was actually the result of a bet I made with Facebook friend Carlos R. He bet me the Ravens wouldn’t select Cam Robinson at No. 16 overall. We had a good reason to think Baltimore would select Robinson, but the team went elsewhere, so I gave $50 to Relentless Detroit, which is an organization that helps children. It’s a cool fundraiser worth checking out, and if you want to donate to help children, click the link to read all about it.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Prior to the Lions suffering numerous injuries to major players this offseason, I liked them to potentially make a deep playoff run this year. Their offensive line, which I considered one of the league’s best, was one of the major reasons why. Unfortunately for Detroit, left tackle Taylor Decker suffered a torn labrum, so he’ll be out for a while.

First-round bust Greg Robinson will start in Decker’s place. Robinson was awful with the Rams, but he was surprisingly decent in preseason action. Still, I don’t have much faith in him protecting against Chandler Jones, one of the top edge rushers in the NFL. The one bit of good news for the Lions, however, is that Robert Nkemdiche is out for the Cardinals. Nkemdiche looked like he was going to live up to his first-round billing with some excellent preseason performances, but he has a calf injury and won’t be able to take advantage of Detroit’s huge hole at left guard as a result.

Still, with Jones putting heat on the quarterback, Matthew Stafford won’t be able to remain in the pocket for very long. And it’s not like he would have much success downfield anyway, with Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu and rookie Budda Baker in Arizona’s secondary. Stafford, however, should be able to hook up with Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick, as they can take advantage of some liabilities at linebacker. First-round rookie Haason Reddick starts there, but he had an up-and-down August without having to cover some dynamic receiving backs like Abdullah and Reddick. And speaking of the two runners, they should be able to pick up some chunks of yardage on the ground with Nkemdiche out of the lineup.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: While the Cardinals have some liabilities defensively, that’s nothing compared to the issues Detroit has on this side of the ball. Kerry Hyder was lost for the season, while Ziggy Ansah could miss this contest as well. If so, the Lions will have no one outside of A’Shawn Robinson to pressure the quarterback. Carson Palmer didn’t have the luxury of a clean pocket last year, thanks to numerous injuries up front, but all the blockers are healthy now, so he should have plenty of time to dissect Detroit’s defense.

The Lions have a couple of decent players in their secondary, but their linebacking corps is in shambles. They spent their first-round pick on Jarrad Davis, but he struggled in the preseason. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels even schemed against him, and Davis was beaten on nearly every occasion. Bruce Arians is a brilliant offensive mind, so I think he’ll be able to take advantage of Detroit’s defensive liabilities, especially with John Brown seemingly healthy again.

I haven’t even discussed David Johnson yet. In addition to torching the Detroit linebackers as a receiver out of the backfield, he should be able to gash the Lions on the ground. I can’t see Detroit containing him.

RECAP: The Cardinals tend to struggle in these early East Coast starts, so if I were betting them, that would give me some pause. However, I don’t want any part of the Lions right now without a handful of points, given how many key injuries they have. Their defense is one of the league’s worst, and I’m still not convinced that Robinson has made some incredible improvements in the span of several months. I’m taking Arizona, but I’m not betting this game. This spread is about right, so I’m not seeing any value.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As I said on the podcast, I’m going to change this pick if the Lions are +3. They’ve already moved up to +2, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this line is +3 by kickoff. The one thing I will definitely be betting here is Detroit on a tease. The Lions tend to keep most of their games close, and going to +8 seems like a good deal. I’m going to pair the teaser with Raiders +8.5. I don’t see the Titans blowing out Oakland.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick. Mike Iupati could be out, and even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent. A’Shawn Robinson could dominate this game as a result. I won’t be placing a bet, however, unless this spread reaches +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: In case you missed it last night, I switched this pick to the Lions as a result of the Mike Iupati injury. Iupati will play, but there’s some question about his health. He probably won’t be himself. Thus, I still like the Lions. Unfortunately, +3 hasn’t shown up yet. Detroit is +2.5 -105 in multiple books, but I’m still holding out for +3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The sharps and public are betting the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 73% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Bruce Arians is 37-29 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Opening Line: Lions -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Cardinals 24
Lions +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 35, Cardinals 23

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)
Line: Titans by 2.5. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -2.5.
Sunday, Sept 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Titans.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Something totally unexpected is happening in college football. Brace yourself, because this is a crazy development that has never been seen before. Entitled fans of storied college football programs watched their teams lose, and now they want the head coach fired.

Yes, this is actually happening.

In case you couldn’t tell, I’m being totally facetious. This happens every year, and in this particular season, the Texas schools were victim to this phenomenon. Texas fans were extremely furious to be losing to Maryland, as some of the fans threw orange cards onto the football field. There were orange cards all over the field in the final minutes of that contest, and the officials actually had to stop action to clean everything up.

I can understand being frustrated by such a loss, but what’s the point of acting like a**holes and throwing orange cards? First of all, where did those orange cards come from, and second, what’s the point of disrupting the game by throwing them?

Texas head coach Tom Herman was making his debut. There’s no way he could’ve possibly fixed everything wrong with the program in just a few months. Expecting instant success was unreasonable, and a loss to an underrated Maryland squad shouldn’t have warranted the throwing of these orange cards, whatever the hell they were.

I have two recommendations, one for the fans and one for the school. The fans should chill out. If they give out orange cards at the game, keep them. They could be worth money some day. Hell, I think I’d pay $3 for an orange card right now, but I might be willing to fork over $10 in five years! And for the school, because the students are such babies and can’t handle a loss, try scheduling Northwest Southeast Central Midwest Upper Lower Texas State University College A&M Tech for your first game next time so you can guarantee a victory and keep the orange cards off the field.

2. Speaking of Texas schools being frustrated with their head coaches, Kevin Sumlin caught a ton of heat for UCLA’s crazy comeback. It sounded like the fans didn’t even want Sumlin to board the plane back to Los Angeles, so here’s how he could’ve gotten home without doing so:

There are some who speculate that Sumlin only succeeded because he had Johnny Manziel, but I wouldn’t agree with that. Sumlin is a good coach, and I wouldn’t fire him because one of the top quarterbacks in the nation caught fire. At the very least, don’t think he should have to walk for nearly 24 hours!

3. Someone who should actually get fired is one of the announcers who did the Texas-Maryland telecast. That’s because he said the following:

“This is only a one-score game!”

The problem? When he said this, Maryland was winning, 30-20! In what world is a 10-point margin a one-score game? The guy who said this sounded drunk, so that could explain the awful math.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: I picked the Raiders to win the Super Bowl in my season previews. I initially was going to choose the Patriots, but I thought it would be cool to be different. As it turns out, I was just another sheep, as there were more bets on Oakland to win the Lombardi Trophy than any other team. Oops!

I was still confident in the Raiders prior to seeing them in the preseason. They just seemed aloof to me. Derek Carr wasn’t especially sharp in either start, and the offensive line wasn’t holding up as well. This, of course, could be attributed to Donald Penn’s holdout. Penn ended his absence in late August, but a source close to Penn told me that he’s fat and out of shape. This is huge, as Oakland’s offensive line was a big part of the team’s success. If Penn isn’t in shape enough to keep Brian Orakpo out of the backfield, the Raiders could be in trouble because we know right tackle Marshall Newhouse won’t have any success against Derrick Morgan.

The Raiders still have some dynamic weapons in the passing game, but the Titans have made improvements to their secondary. They signed Logan Ryan, whom I’m not completely confident in, but he’ll at least be an improvement over what Tennessee had last year. Also, the new safety tandem of John Cyprien and Kevin Byard should be effective enough to keep Oakland’s aerial attack in check. Marshawn Lynch, meanwhile, will have some great interior blocking, but it remains to be seen if he can still shoulder an entire workload.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Like the Raiders, the Titans had one of the top blocking units in the NFL last year. However, they didn’t have anyone holding out, so they should be ready to roll. It’s fortunate for Tennessee that Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin don’t have any concerns right now because they both have very difficult matchups in this contest, going against Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin. Mack will be extremely difficult for Conklin to keep out of the backfield, but I think Lewan should be able to handle Irvin.

The good news for the Titans is that they can neutralize Mack by running the ball away from him and throwing short and intermediate passes effectively. Oakland’s linebacking corps and secondary are in shambles, particularly the former. Tight ends and pass-catching running backs are going to eat the Raiders alive this season, so I expect huge performances from DeMarco Murray and Delanie Walker.

Speaking of Murray, he and Derrick Henry should have plenty of success on the ground. I like rookie Eddie Vanderdoes, but I’m not sure if he, alone, is good enough to improve Oakland’s 19th-ranked rush defense from a year ago, especially with linebacker Perry Riley gone.

RECAP: I loved both of these teams heading into August, so I was upset that they were playing each other in Week 1. However, I now have some issues with both of them right now. For the Raiders, I mentioned that they were aloof, and I hated hearing that Penn is currently fat and out of shape. For the Titans, I want to bet them as underdogs, at least against tough opponents. The fact that they’re favored over a Super Bowl contender just sets them up to choke under high expectations. Plus, we’re getting no line value, which is a bummer. If the Titans were +3, as I once thought they’d be, this would be a major bet.

I’m going with the Titans because I think they’re in better shape right now, but I wish we were getting points.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still torn on this game, so I’m going to pass. I wish the Titans were underdogs. Alas, that’s not the case, as we can’t take advantage of Donald Penn being fat and out of shape this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sebastian Janikowski is out, which could impact this game. I’m slightly more confident in the Titans, but not enough to bet this game. Like I said, I wish they were underdogs. What I am interested in, however, is the over, as there should be plenty of explosive plays from both teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp action on the Titans, pushing this spread up to -3 -105 in some books. I understand the line movement, but I don’t think there’s enough value to bet Tennessee.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Titans are favored versus a top contender, so high expectations could hurt them.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 57% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Titans 33, Raiders 30
Titans -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 50.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Raiders 26, Titans 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)
Line: No Line (Game Postponed). Total: .
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: .
Sunday, Sept 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.

***** It sounds like this game will be postponed until Week 11, when both the Dolphins and Buccaneers have bye weeks. Hurricane Irma has been upgraded to Category 5, and it doesn’t seem feasible to play a game in Florida this weekend. If this game is moved to a neutral location outside of Florida, I will post a write-up. However, with this game likely canceled for Week 1, there’s no point in analyzing this matchup at the current moment. *****

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started six years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I’ll have new answers to Spam Mails here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you somehow missed it, this game has been postponed to Week 11.

The Psychology. Edge: TBA.
Hurricane Irma has to be a major distraction to both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Sharp money coming in on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 67% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 76-44 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 4-8 ATS as road favorites since 2004.

Underdog is 75-44 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 119 games.

Dolphins are 3-13 ATS in September home games since 2006.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Game postponed

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -1.
Sunday, Sept 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Video of the Week: I’m going to post videos I find amusing here each week. I thought I’d begin the season with one of the first videos I ever posted in this section because it recently celebrated its 10-year anniversary of being on YouTube. It might be a bit outdated, but anyone who played Final Fantasy 4-9 will appreciate this:

I can’t believe it’s been 10 years. I still think it’s hilarious. Mark Leung, if you’re somehow reading this, please make a sequel!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The narrative heading into this game is that the Ravens’ roster is completely battered because of numerous injuries. The Bengals have countless problems as well. They haven’t suffered as many injuries, but two of their key defenders are suspended. Meanwhile, there aren’t any absent players on this side of the ball, unless you want to count the ones who departed via free agency. The Bengals lost Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler to the Rams and Browns, respectively. Most casual bettors don’t recognize those names, but they were Cincinnati’s best blockers. Now, the Bengals have arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL, with the exception of the Seahawks. Their tackles, Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher, are atrocious, and they have just one viable starter up front in guard Clint Boling.

This is obviously going to be a major problem in this contest. The Ravens have a talented front seven. Terrell Suggs and impressive rookie Tyus Bowser should be able to pressure Andy Dalton, who won’t have much time in the pocket. A.J. Green will be difficult for Baltimore to stop, so it’ll be important to put as much pressure on Dalton as possible. Meanwhile, Tyler Eifert should be somewhat neutralized, thanks to C.J. Mosley and Eric Weddle. The Ravens were stingy versus tight ends last year for a reason.

I don’t anticipate Cincinnati’s runners having much success either. The offensive line, once again, will be a major issue, though I expect Ogbuehi to be better in run blocking than pass protection. Still, the Ravens have a potent defensive front that can stop the rush effectively. Brandon Williams is a mammoth who eats up running lanes, while fourth-year Brent Urban enjoyed a terrific preseason and should help stuff Joe Mixon and Jermey Hill.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: As mentioned, the Bengals will be missing a couple of players due to suspension, as Vontaze Burfict and Pacman Jones will be forced to sit this game out, as will safety Shawn Williams, who is hurt. Burfict’s absence will be especially enormous, as the Bengals don’t seem like they’ll be able to cover Danny Woodhead as a receiver out of the backfield.

Jones and Williams being out is also impactful, as Joe Flacco can certainly air the ball out. It’s unclear how healthy Flacco is, but he’s practicing right now, and he seems ready to go. Flacco now has Jeremy Maclin at his disposal on top of Mike Wallace, so he should have success on some downfield throws, as the Bengals’ skeleton-crew secondary figures to struggle.

One area the Ravens won’t dominate on this side of the ball is in the trenches. Like the Bengals, Baltimore lost a couple of starting offensive linemen this offseason, including right tackle Ricky Wagner. Austin Howard will start in his place, and he has a very difficult matchup against Carlos Dunlap. Meanwhile, Geno Atkins will have his way with new center Ryan Jensen.

RECAP: I don’t understand why the Bengals are favored by three. Baltimore is the better team, and I thought this before Burfict’s suspension was announced. The Ravens have the superior offensive line and defense (with Burfict out), and they should be able to win this game, especially with Cincinnati possibly looking ahead to its Thursday night affair.

I’m picking the Ravens for three units, and I may add a fourth later in the week. My one hangup with Baltimore is Flacco’s health, but given that he hasn’t been limited in practice, it sounds like he’ll be fine enough to beat the underwhelming Bengals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still like the Ravens a lot, but I’m not a fan of the juice. The best deal is at Bovada (+3 -115). Hopefully this improves by Sunday.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no new injuries to report, but the Bengals are still missing lots of personnel. The Ravens should win this game, though the best spread (+3 -115) still isn’t a great one. I’m putting half of a unit on the under.

FINAL THOUGHTS: An e-mailer who monitors my picks against others just told me that Ravens +3 is my top play. I like Baltimore quite a bit, but I’m not moving to four units with +3 -115 being the best spread out there (Bovada).

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The Bengals play Thursday night.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Everyone is betting on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 75% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Bengals have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Bengals are 20-11 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Bengals -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Bengals 17
Ravens +3 -115 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 41 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Ravens 20, Bengals 0

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
Line: Steelers by 10. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -7.5.
Sunday, Sept 10, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Last year, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. In doing so, Tom Brady saved his organization, the Two-Handed Gang, from the Latin Kings. Everything was going swimmingly for Brady while in the White House, until he received a telegram from Bill Belichick, requiring his presence in Foxboro…

Stay tune for the first chapter next week! For now, check out the 2016 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: If I could redo my season previews, I think I’d pick the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots are the obvious choice, but as I said earlier, I want to be different. I feel like no one is talking about Pittsburgh as a Super Bowl contender, yet the Steelers could end up being the best team in the NFL.

My one hangup with the Steelers is Ben Roethlisberger. Not only is he injury-prone, but he legitimately thought about retiring this offseason, so will his head be in the game? If so, I expect him to dominate the Browns, as he usually does. Cleveland’s defense will be better this year, but the Steelers just have way too many weapons for the Browns to handle. Martavis Bryant is back after being suspended all of 2016, so I don’t know how Cleveland is going to cover both him and Antonio Brown, all while worrying about Le’Veon Bell coming out of the backfield as both a runner and passer. Bell hasn’t played in the preseason at all because of his holdout, but he put an end to it just in time to get some practices in.

An undervalued aspect of the Steelers’ roster is their offensive line. With the Cowboys losing Ronald Leary, and the Raiders dealing with an out-of-shape Donald Penn, the Steelers could have the best front line in the league. Alejandro Villanueva will have his hands full with Myles Garrett, who was as dominant as advertised in the preseason, but the Browns’ best interior presence, Danny Shelton, is expected to be out of the lineup, so that will make up for it. As long as the Steelers help Villanueva with Garrett, they shouldn’t have any pass-protection issues.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Speaking of talented offensive fronts, the Browns have one themselves. With Kevin Zeitler and J.C. Tretter joining Joe Thomas and Joel Bitonio, Cleveland now has a top-five blocking unit. That’ll help them win several games this year, as they’ll be able to run the ball effectively and stay competitive with most teams.

The Steelers, however, aren’t most teams. I already discussed their dynamic offense, but they also have an improved defense that welcomed Joe Haden in a quick signing a week ago. Haden has struggled to stay healthy, but he’s in the lineup now. More importantly, Haden is very familiar with both DeShone Kizer and the Browns’ signals. His signing reminds me of when the Bills obtained Lawyer Milloy just prior to Week 1 during the 2003 season. Milloy was a long-time great safety for the Patriots, but Bill Belichick opted to part ways with him just prior to the opener because Milloy was on the decline. Milloy joined the Bills, who happened to be playing New England. Milloy knew all of the Patriots’ signals. He was able to inform his new coaching staff, and the result was a 31-0 victory for Buffalo. The Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl that year, while the Bills missed the playoffs – New England actually beat Buffalo in the regular-season finale by the exact same score, 31-0 – but it’s something I never forgot. Haden’s presence could help the Steelers in more ways than one against the Browns.

Besides, Kizer is going to have to throw a lot with the Steelers bound to score on nearly every possession. If the Browns can’t establish the rush, they’re going to be in trouble. Kizer has talent, but he’s a raw rookie who is going to force lots of passes. While this could lead to some big plays, it also means that the Steelers are likely to come away with several turnovers.

RECAP: I was planning on taking the points at one point this summer, and I actually thought this would be one of my Supercontest picks. I grew less confident with each passing week, as I realized how dominant the Steelers could be. Then, once Haden signed with Pittsburgh, that sealed the deal. I was switching the pick to the Steelers. I don’t want to bet on a team to win on the road by double digits, but Haden knowing the Browns’ signals is too important to ignore.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Myles Garrett is out for the Browns, which would concern me if I were betting Cleveland. The Joe Haden situation bothers me more, however. I don’t want to bet the Steelers as a big road favorite, but I think they’re the right side.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wish the Joe Haden factor wasn’t a thing, but it is for me. The Browns could be in trouble if they didn’t change everything up. I still like the Steelers, but this is too high of a number to bet. I think the over is the play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wrote earlier that I was surprised that there wasn’t much public action on the Steelers. Well, that has changed. The Joes are pounding Pittsburgh this morning, pushing this line up to -10. I’d still take the Steelers, but wouldn’t bet them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

I’m surprised there’s not more action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 78% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Steelers have won 30 of the last 34 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 45-25 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Steelers are 3-14 ATS on the road as favorites of -8 or more since 1990.

Steelers are 22-31 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Steelers -9.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 38, Browns 24
Steelers -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Steelers 21, Browns 18

Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games
Indianapolis at LA Rams, Carolina at San Francisco, Seattle at Green Bay, NY Giants at Dallas, New Orleans at Minnesota, LA Chargers at Denver

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)