NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 11, 5:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)
Line: Rams by 4. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -5.5.
Sunday, Sept 10, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck has been ruled out for this game, and he’ll likely miss several more starts. Scott Tolzien has gotten the nod, which obviously does not bode well for Indianapolis. Tolzien is one of the weakest backup quarterbacks in the NFL, so he doesn’t stand a chance against a formidable defense.

Making matters worse for Tolzien, starting center Ryan Kelly will be missing as well. The Colts sound as if they are going with someone named Bond, Deyshawn Bond instead. I don’t expect Bond to perform well against Michael Brockers, though he’s quite fortunate that he doesn’t have to deal with the spectre of Aaron Donald. The talented defensive tackle is holding out, though the Rams have not ruled that he would be inactive as of this writing. The odds are against Donald playing, but if I were him, I’d make it back in time to dominate the Colts. Donald could easily get four sacks if he suits up. That’s how bad Indianapolis’ offensive line is looking right now.

Regardless of whether Donald plays or not, the Rams should be able to overwhelm the Colts. Indianapolis’ only threat is T.Y. Hilton, but Tolzien won’t have enough time in the pocket to find the speedy threat. Meanwhile, there won’t be enough blocking for Frank Gore, as the Rams will be able to focus on him with Luck missing.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I referred to Jared Goff as “Jared Goof” quite often during the winter and spring, but by all accounts, he has enjoyed a promising offseason. This isn’t a surprise, as he has two terrific tutors in Sean McVay and Greg Olson to help him develop. Goff, unlike Blake Bortles and Colin Kaepernick, has taken his career very seriously thus far, opting to work hard and study film. He had a deer-in-the-headlights look last season, but he’s talented and should improve now that he has better coaching.

The offensive line is another reason to expect better play from Goff. The Rams had the worst blocking unit in the NFL last year, but that has changed. They added left tackle Andrew Whitworth and center John Sullivan to solidify the group. Sullivan is a decent center, but Whitworth is the big difference-maker. He’ll be able to shield Goff’s blind side effectively, though he won’t have much of a challenge in this contest. Indianapolis’ best edge rushers are Jabaal Sheard and John Simon, both of whom happen to be middling defenders who were bench players in 2016.

With Goff bound to have ample time in the pocket, he should be able to dissect Indianapolis’ horrific secondary and linebacking corps. The Colts will be missing top cornerback Vontae Davis, so Sammy Watkins should have a big performance. The same goes for Todd Gurley, who will have a rebound season because of the upgrades made up front.

RECAP: I remember sitting in the Westgate sportsbook in July, looking at the Rams +3.5 -105, and thinking, “That line can’t possibly be right.” I didn’t pull the trigger, however, because I was scared of putting money on Goff. He absolutely wrecked me late last year. If it wasn’t for my disgusting habit of betting on the Rams, I would’ve finished well in the black for 2016.

However, based on everything I’ve heard and seen, I’m more confident in Goff. I’m still a bit scarred, and I hate that we lost line value – how sick would +3.5 -105 be right now? – but I’m going to dip my toe in the water by placing two units on the Rams. I should have done this in July, but I still think -3.5 is too low of a number. Considering that Luck, Kelly and Davis are all out, this line should be closer to -6, even when factoring in the Rams’ non-existent home-field advantage.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has moved up to -4, and I think there’s a good chance this line will continue to rise. Who in their right mind is betting Scott Tolzien? I’m hoping a book will offer a low-juice bet at -4, and if I see that, I’m going to jump on it.

SATURDAY NOTES: As I said, I’d jump on a -4 wager with low juice. It’s -4 -105 at CRIS, so I’ll lock that in. I still like the Rams at -4.5 for two units, for the record. I’d take the Rams for anything up to -5.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ah, the perils of locking picks in early. The Rams line was soaring earlier, but sharp action on the Colts has dropped this to -3 -120 (5Dimes) or -3.5 (Westgate). This line is still -4 -105 at Bovada. Regardless, I’d still like the Rams for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

The public is eager to bet against the Colts without Andrew Luck.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 74% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Chuck Pagano is 2-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Rams 23, Colts 13
Rams -4 -105 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 46, Colts 9

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -3.
Sunday, Sept 10, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Just when you thought the Seahawks’ offensive line couldn’t get any worse, they lost George Fant to an injury in the second preseason game. Fant wasn’t a very good tackle, or anything, but he at least had upside, and it was clear that he was making some strides. Rees Odhiambo replaced Fant, and he had issues blocking third-string Minnesota defenders for the rest of the evening. It’s really no secret that Seattle’s blocking group is in shambles. To give you an idea of how bad it is, Luke Joeckel is probably the Seahawks’ second-best offensive lineman right now, and he wasn’t even good enough for the Jaguars!

If the Seahawks didn’t have a mobile quarterback like Russell Wilson, it would be difficult to envision them winning any games. However, Wilson is outstanding at buying time in the pocket, and then either scrambling for chunks or finding an open target downfield. And Wilson certainly will have open players to throw to. He has some intriguing weapons at his disposal in Jimmy Graham (now 100-percent healthy), Doug Baldwin, the talented Tyler Lockett and emerging Paul Richardson. The Packers have a poor secondary and linebacking corps that doesn’t appear like it’ll be aided by 33rd-overall draft pick Kevin King, who was torched often in the preseason. I expect Graham and Baldwin to have huge games.

The Packers will at least be able to stop the run. Eddie Lacy won’t be much of a threat behind a poor offensive line, and neither will Thomas Rawls, who may not even be able to play. One Seattle back I do like in this matchup is C.J. Prosise, who is a dynamic pass-catching threat out of the backfield. I can’t see the Packer linebackers having much success against him.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers demolished the Seahawks in their meeting last year, 38-10. A major reason why the game wasn’t close was because Earl Thomas was out with an injury. Thomas obviously isn’t worth 28 points – no player is – but Seattle simply couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers without one of its two star safeties, and the game eventually just got out of hand.

I have to imagine that the Seahawks haven’t forgotten this embarrassing defeat. They’ll have Thomas in the lineup this time, and I think they’ll do a better job defending Rodgers. The star quarterback has looked a bit sluggish in the preseason, and I can’t get that out of my mind. He resembled the mediocre version of himself early in 2016, as he just seemed off. Perhaps he just wasn’t trying very hard in meaningless action, but I’d feel better about it if we didn’t see this out of Rodgers in several games last year. He caught fire at the end when he said his team was going to run the table, but I won’t be surprised if he gets off to a slow start again.

The Seahawks will be able to concentrate on Rodgers and his downfield weapons because the Packers don’t have much of a ground attack. Besides, Seattle added Sheldon Richardson to its defensive front. Richardson is a force versus the run, and he’ll also apply some pressure on quarterbacks this year. Rodgers is usually very well protected, but there’s some question about Bryan Bulaga’s availability. Bulaga, a very important part of Green Bay’s offense, is dealing with an ankle. Even if he suits up, he may not be 100 percent.

RECAP: I’m not excited to pick the Seahawks because of the state of their offensive line. Plus, there’s no spread value here. This line seems correct, as I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers win by exactly three.

However, I think there’s more of a chance of Seattle either prevailing or losing by fewer than three than the Packers winning by more than a field goal, so I will pick the underdog. Taking points with Wilson seems like the smarter idea than backing Rodgers, who once again doesn’t seem like himself.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still don’t have a strong feeling about this game, though I’m maybe 1-percent more confident in the Seahawks. Bryan Bulaga will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’s going to be 100 percent. If so, that’s a pretty big edge for Seattle.

SATURDAY NOTES: I heard a crazy stat where Russell Wilson is 18-6 against the spread when getting less than 50 percent of the wagers. That’s what’s happening here, as the public likes the Packers, yet this line hasn’t moved. That won’t make me bet Seattle, but I found it interesting nonetheless. A concern for the Seahawks is that Richard Sherman is questionable. If he’s not completely healthy, that’ll be big-time trouble for Seattle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was big news this morning that had Bryan Bulaga as a long shot to play. That is a major blow to Green Bay’s chances, as they won’t be able to block Seattle’s ferocious front nearly as well. With that news in mind, I’m going to place a unit on the Seahawks. The best line is +3 -115 at Bovada. I wouldn’t wager on +2.5, though the sharps brought it down to that number.

LATE UPDATE: Bulaga is out, as speculated. The Seahawks are still +3 -105 at Bovada, and I think they’re worth a small bet. For fantasy purposes, Thomas Rawls is inactive, but I don’t think that affects the result of this game in any way.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

There’s good action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 68% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Seahawks are 32-45 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Packers are 34-20 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 79-49 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Packers 23
Seahawks +3 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 17, Seahawks 9

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)
Line: Panthers by 6. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.5.
Sunday, Sept 10, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Emmitt on the Brink will be back for Season 10 (I can’t believe this is the 10th year I’ve been doing this!) It’ll start next week, but for now, check out Seasons 1-9, all available by clicking on that link. Season 9 saw Emmitt get into hot water for saying something controversial on Twitter. College students tried to destroy him, but all of that was just a ruse by Evil Matt Millen, who opened a portal to the evil dimension. Emmitt and Evil Emmitt have switched places, though no one is aware of that just yet…

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I loved hearing people on ESPN and NFL Network declare that Cam Newton was back following his performance in the third preseason game. This “performance” involved two passes, both of which were short tosses. Newton lasted only one drive, so he didn’t do anything else. I have to believe his health is still a major question mark. I suppose we’ll find out in this season opener.

One thing we do know is that Newton is still poorly protected on the edge. The Panthers signed Matt Kalil this offseason. to join his brother Ryan and replace Michael Oher. The problem, however, is that Matt Kalil resembled a human turnstile last year in Carolina. I have to believe that No. 3 overall pick Solomon Thomas will have an advantage in this matchup, as will newly acquired Elvis Dumervil versus pedestrian right tackle Daryl Williams. The 49ers still have some glaring issues in their secondary, so Newton will have success throwing downfield, but only if he’s healthy and when he’ll have ample time in the pocket.

While Solomon Thomas has a nice matchup in his first game, the other first-round pick, Reuben Foster, could be more impactful. Foster was unbelievable in the preseason, and based on his play, I think he’s the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. The 49ers were horrific versus the run and struggled to stop tight ends last year, but that’ll change with Foster on the field and NaVorro Bowman back in the lineup. Bowman may not be 100 percent, but he’ll be an upgrade over what the 49ers had when he was knocked out with a torn Achilles.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have made some upgrades on this side of the ball as well. They signed Pierre Garcon, giving them a legitimate starting receiver, which is something they lacked last year. They also didn’t have a viable starting running back because Carlos Hyde was hurt. Hyde is in great shape right now, and I think he’ll be able to have a solid 2017 campaign, especially with the help of top-tier fullback Kyle Juszczyk leading the way. Juszczyk will also serve as a decent pass-catching weapon out of the backfield for Brian Hoyer.

Speaking of Hoyer, that’s another upgrade the 49ers acquired this spring. Hoyer is obviously far from a great quarterback, but he’s better than Colin Kaepernick, who posted his fraudulent 16:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio with the benefit of lots of garbage time. Hoyer can’t scramble like Kaepernick, but he’s a better passer, and he’s proven he can get a team to the playoffs with a strong supporting cast.

Unfortunately for the 49ers, they don’t have a strong supporting cast. The team is certainly better than it was in 2016, but there are still some major holes. For example, the offensive line is pretty poor, outside of Joe Staley. The Panthers don’t have a great pass rush, but I don’t know how San Francisco is going to contain Kawann Short. Defensive end Mario Addison should also have a strong performance versus right tackle Trent Brown.

RECAP: Both offenses are sluggish, thanks to poor blocking. Newton’s health is a concern, while Hoyer is just mediocre. Thus, it’s reasonable to expect this to be a low-scoring game, meaning taking the points is the way to go.

I would have felt this way if the 49ers were 3.5-point underdogs. Yet, they’re getting six in some books! I don’t understand this line. The Panthers are maybe an 8-8-ish team, while the 49ers could end up being 4-12, perhaps 5-11 if things go their way. Should an 8-8 squad be favored by six at a 4-12 opponent? I really don’t think so.

The 49ers are better than they were last year for sure. They’ve made some serious upgrades. They still have a lot of work to do, but they’ll be much more competitive, and I expect them to cover against the Panthers and their possibly injured quarterback.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money is coming in on the 49ers, as this spread has dropped to +5.5 in my books. If you can still get +6 – that is available at Bovada – make sure to do it soon. I’m going to lock this one in.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m somewhat glad I locked this spread in at +6, given that the sharps have dropped the line down to +4.5. It’s only “somewhat” because Jimmie Ward is doubtful, meaning San Francisco will have poor safety play. That said, it remains to be seen if Cam Newton is healthy enough to take advantage of that liability. I’d still bet the 49ers, but for only two units instead of three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The line stopped dropping. The sharps took the 49ers at +6 through +5, but not +4.5. This line is still available at +6 -115 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Everyone seems to think this is going to be an easy cover for the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 80% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Panthers 17, 49ers 14
49ers +6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 23, 49ers 3

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
Line: Cowboys by 5.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -5.5.
Sunday, Sept 10, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about weirdos at the gym pool, including a man who said I was responsible for global warming in the swimming pool.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I was hoping we’d get a verdict on Ezekiel Elliott by the time I reached this game, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. I’m not sure how the NFL hasn’t been able to suspend Elliott, given that there’s actual an video of him unclothing a woman in public. I’m not sure about six games, but the NFL could have charged him with at least two. I don’t know. Either way, it sounds like Elliott will suit up, though nothing is definitive quite yet.

The Cowboys have to be thrilled that Elliott could be available, but it’ll be difficult for him to find much running room against the Giants. New York has a stout defensive front, as Snacks Harrison is a terrific presence in the middle of it. Furthermore, Dallas’ offensive line isn’t as potent this year. Ronald Leary is gone, so the Cowboys now have holes at left guard in addition to right tackle. Pass protection could also be a problem for the same reason. I don’t see La’el Collins being able to block Jason Pierre-Paul.

That said, Dak Prescott’s mobility will help ease these concerns, much like Russell Wilson does for the Seahawks. Prescott, who was tremendous in the preseason, should be able to buy time and connect with his targets. Jason Witten, especially, should have a big performance, as the Giants’ linebacking corps is the worst part of their defense.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I discussed Dallas’ offensive line as a declining unit, but the Cowboys can shield the quarterback much better than the Giants can. Ereck Flowers has continued to struggle this preseason, meaning he and Bobby Hart once again figure to be liabilities up front. Whether or not the Cowboys can take advantage of this remains to be seen. DeMarcus Lawrence struggled with injuries last year, while Taco Charlton is a mere rookie. There is promise, however, as Lawrence appears healthier, while Charlton, following a poor outing in the Hall of Fame Game, improved each week as the preseason progressed.

The most important factor, however, will be Odell Beckham Jr.’s availability. Beckham suffered an injury in the second preseason game on a dirty hit, and his status is unknown. The Cowboys sustained some losses to their secondary this offseason, so they need all the help they can get. If Beckham is out, they shouldn’t have much trouble with the declining Brandon Marshall and inconsistent Sterling Shepard. If Beckham happens to be in the lineup, however, he’ll be good for several of his usual home-run plays, as Dallas doesn’t have anyone in its secondary to contain him.

The Cowboys will at least be able to neutralize New York’s ground attack, though that’s not saying much. Paul Perkins isn’t much of a threat, especially behind his pedestrian offensive line. Stephen Paea, Sean Lee and the healthy Jaylon Smith should be able to clamp down on Perkins and any intermediate threats, such as Evan Engram.

RECAP: This is a difficult prediction to make right now because it’s unclear if Elliott and Beckham will be playing. I would lean toward the Cowboys, as they have better blocking and double revenge on their side. The Giants defeated them twice last year, so I have to believe that this is something that has been stewing for Dallas. I expect a victory for the host, but this could end up being close, so I don’t want to wager a bet on the Cowboys, who historically have struggled at home.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought about it, and I think I’m going to bet a unit on the Cowboys. I don’t believe in the Giants at all, and if Odell Beckham Jr. is declared out, this spread could rise. If Beckham plays, he may not be 100 percent. Thus, I think there’s a good opportunity with Dallas in this spot.

SATURDAY NOTES: Odell Beckham is traveling with the team. He could play, but he may not be 100 percent. If he suits up, this spread will drop, so I’m waiting on that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has moved to -6 in most places because Beckham has been declared out. A shift of two points makes sense. I wouldn’t bet this at -6, but a line of -5.5 is available at 5Dimes, so I’m going to keep one unit on Dallas at that line. Six is too key of a number to cross, so I wouldn’t recommend Cowboys -6.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
It’s odd to see the Cowboys getting little support on a nationally televised game.

Percentage of money on New York: 52% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won the last 3 meetings.

Giants are 46-32 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 39-30 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

The underdog is 71-41 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 16-26 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cowboys 24, Giants 17
Cowboys -5.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 19, Cowboys 3

New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Monday, Sept 11, 7:10 PM
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

I’ve used this section on my trolling experiences over the years, but people have apparently grown tired of it, so I’m going to take a break from doing it. If there’s an outcry about it, I may bring it back, perhaps maybe later in the year.

So, what’ll be in this place now? More trolling! I’ve mentioned Ross Avila before, but what I hadn’t referenced was that Ross challenged me this summer:

If you think this is stupid, don’t tell that to Ross. This means the world to him:

Ross will be posting his picks every Saturday on my Facebook wall, so I’ll relay them here when he gets around to his selections. Mine will be the five I pick for the SuperContest, which I’ll analyze here each Saturday. I’ll also post the picks of the top entrants, so check that link out Saturday evening.

UPDATE: Ross has picked the Steelers, Packers, 49ers, Saints and Chargers for his five. We have three of the same entries, so we can only be two victories apart, at most, no matter what happens in Week 1.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: As I mentioned in the overrated-underrated section on the previous page, the Saints are an underrated team because they’ve made some improvements to their defense. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore has looked like a stud this preseason, which isn’t a surprise, given that he was the top player at his position in the entire 2017 NFL Draft class. Linebacker Alex Anzalone has impressed as well. Lattimore and Anzalone should be able to do a good job of covering Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph, respectively.

Regardless of this, Sam Bradford will continue to throw his usual, largely ineffective checkdown passes. Bradford set a single-season completion record this way, but Minnesota’s offense struggled for the most part last year. That will continue to be the case, as the offensive line has four holes on it, with the exception being guard Joe Berger. Riley Reiff is going to have major problems keeping Cameron Jordan out of the backfield, while Sheldon Rankins, now healthy, figures to dominate the pedestrian Nick Easton and rookie Pat Elflein.

The Vikings at least have an improved running back, as Dalvin Cook has looked solid this preseason. He’ll be better than those who replaced an injured Adrian Peterson last year, but the blocking won’t be there very often. Cook should have some nice runs, but the Saints’ improved stop unit should be able to prevent him from going wild in his pro debut.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Speaking of Peterson, he’ll be going up against the Vikings for the first time in his career. This is a big-time revenge game for him, and I expect Sean Payton to feed him the ball. The Vikings have struggled to stop the run since losing Sharrif Floyd, and this aspect of their defense didn’t look any better in the preseason. I expect Peterson and Mark Ingram to have big-time performances in the opener.

The Vikings are much better versus the pass, and part of the reason is their ability to get to the quarterback. I expect Zach Strief and Larry Warford to handle Danielle Hunter and Linval Joseph, respectively, but rookie Ryan Ramczyk, playing for the injured Terron Armstead, will have his hands full with Everson Griffen and his brand new contract extension. That said, Drew Brees hates interior pressure more than anything, and thanks to Max Unger’s health and Warford’s presence, the Saints should be able to block well inside.

Brees won’t have the suspended Willie Snead at his disposal, but he’ll be able to connect with Michael Thomas on numerous occasions. The Vikings have a good No. 1 corner in Xavier Rhodes, but Thomas should be able to win that matchup. Elsewhere, I expect Sean Payton to devise a way for Brees to use his pass-catching backs – Ingram and Alvin Kamara – against a Minnesota linebacking corps that features Anthony Barr, who was woeful last year. Perhaps Barr will improve, but if he performs like he did in 2016, the Vikings don’t stand a chance of stopping the Saints.

RECAP: This is one of my top two plays this week. I love the Saints, as this spread is 3.5 points off of where I think it should be. I have this as a pick ’em, as New Orleans is a much better team than the Vikings, who finished 3-8 in their final 11 games last year. Minnesota can’t block whatsoever; Bradford poses no sort of downfield ability; and the defense hasn’t been able to stop the run since losing a key player. The fact that the Vikings are not only favored, but are projected to win by more than a field goal is absolutely absurd to me.

On top of the Saints being the better team getting 3.5 points, the fact that Brees is an underdog is very appealing. If anything, Brees could certainly engineer a scoring drive at the very end to achieve a back-door score. For this reason, Brees is 49-29 against the spread as an underdog throughout his career. I hate trends, but that number is a logical outcome of elite signal-callers getting points.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to +3, though the juice is favorable (+105 at CRIS). I still love the Saints, and I consider it a good sign that the books are no longer offering the hook. That almost seemed like a trap.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed here. I still love the Saints.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There is a bit of late, sharp money on the Vikings, pushing this line up to -3 -125. I don’t understand this, as the Vikings can’t pass protect with their entirely new offensive line. I don’t think they’ll be able to stop the run either. Plus, Drew Brees will also be live for a back-door cover/push. I like getting the +105 juice. Saints +3 +105 is currently available at 5Dimes, BetUS and CRIS, and I’m keeping five units on it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The Saints are getting plenty of support from both the public and sharps.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 65% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Drew Brees is 49-29 ATS as an underdog.

Mike Zimmer is 32-15 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Vikings 20
Saints +3 +105 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$500
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 29, Saints 19

Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -1.5.
Monday, Sept 11, 10:20 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, where the Denver Broncos are taking on the Los Angeles Rams! Guys, I think it’s ridiculous that the city of Los Angeles now has two teams. It makes me wonder why my city of Philadelphia doesn’t have two teams, or even three teams. But then I realize that my Philadelphia Eagles are the best team on the planet and we don’t need a stinking second team!

Emmitt: Cooper, why do you say a second team are stinking? I’m sure the player on the second team taking a shower once and a while, and even if he do, just because he stink might mean that he have a body odorous disease which conflict a lot of people in the United American State of American.

Herm: IT’S AN EXPRESSION! JUST AN EXPRESSION! ONLY AN EXPRESSION! DIDN’T MEAN STINKING AS IN SMELL! DIDN’T MEAN STINKING AS IN STINK! DIDN’T MEAN STINKING AS IN ROTTEN STENCH! DIDN’T MEAN STINKING AS IN STINKING! HE MEANT STINKING AS IN STINKING! I MEAN NOT STINKING! NOT STINKING! JUST AN EXPRESSION! HE’S JUST EXPRESSING! ONLY EXPRESSING! EXPRESS WITH AN ING AT THE END! IT’S AN EXPRESS! ALL ABOARD THE EXPRESS! ALL ABOARD THE TRAIN! WHY IS HERM TALKING ABOUT TRAINS!? TRAINS… EXPRESS… uhh… umm…

Tollefson: Hey producers, why do you continue to torture me by pairing me with Herm for the millionth year in a row? Can I just kill him? Please?

Wolfley: I CAN KILL HIM IF YOU WANT. I’VE KILLED A LOT OVER THE SUMMER. I KILLED JOHNNY AND JASON AND KEVIN AND JORDAN AND MELVIN. ALL OF THESE PEOPLE WERE CRAWLING ON MY FLOOR AND I STEPPED ON THEM BECAUSE THEY WERE TRYING TO STEAL MY FOOD AND TAKE IT BACK TO THEIR QUEEN.

Reilly: Are you talking about ants? Well, I don’t care. If you kill Herm, I will pay you the next 20 allowances I get from mother every Tuesday after she comes back from Bingo.

Millen: Kevin, I’ll kill Herm for you, but I don’t care about your money. I’ll do it if you can find me 20 100-percent USDA Men and deliver them to my hotel room by midnight. I am having trouble finding 100-percent USDA Men in Denver. All of these people here are idiots who ride bicycles everywhere. These sort of people are welcoming in San Francisco, but the ones here only care about eating organic food!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by organic food. There’s food, which is something people usually eat if they’re hungry. Sometimes, people eat food if they’re not hungry. Sometimes, people will eat food if they’re somewhat hungry. And sometimes, people will eat food if they’re not even thinking about being hungry. Speaking of hungry, that is also a name of a country in Europe, which is one of the seven continents. The other continents are North America, South America, Asia, Africa, Australia, Alaska and Russia. But let’s get back to food. Some food is organic. This means it has organs, because organic is the adjective form of organ. An organ is a musical instrument played in churches. So, if you eat organic food, you’ll be eating food found in the organs in churches.

Reilly: Shut up, already, Fouts. We’re talking about important stuff like trying to finally put Herm out of his misery.

Tollefson: Kevin, I have a suggestion for making people disappear. I’ve done this many times with some of the women I’ve kidnapped and enslaved. Some of them refuse to cook and clean naked for me, no matter how much I torture them, so I bop them over the head with a shovel and throw them into the river.

Charles Davis: A river is one type of water, Kevin. Let’s talk about other bodies of water, Kevin. What about an ocean, Kevin? There are lots of oceans, Kevin. How about a sea, Kevin? You know the old saying, seven seas, Kevin? They’re talking about seven particular seas, Kevin. How about a pond, Kevin? Let’s discuss a lake, Kevin. How about a canal, Kevin? Kevin, it’s time that you guess a body of water yourself, Kevin. I’ll give you five guesses, Kevin. Oh, you guessed pepperoni pizza, Kevin? That’s incorrect, Kevin. The answer I was looking for was creek, Kevin.

Reilly: I DON’T GIVE A F*** ABOUT BODIES OF WATER, A**HOLE! IF YOU DON’T STOP BOTHERING ME, I’M GOING TO THROW YOU INTO A BODY OF WATER MYSELF LIKE TOLLY DOES WITH HIS WHORES! We’ll be back after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: The two teams hosting Monday Night Football games this week both happen to have major issues with their offensive line. While the Vikings have four holes up front, the Broncos have three, thanks to the addition of Ronald Leary. Still, Leary won’t be enough, as tackles Garett Bolles and Menelik Watson are going to have major issues protecting against Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Bolles, a first-round rookie, struggled in the preseason, so Bosa is going to be a nightmare for him. The same can be said of the pedestrian Watson with Ingram.

Unlike the Seahawks, the Broncos don’t possess a mobile quarterback who can get out of trouble. Trevor Siemian is a sub-par pocket passer who can move around a bit, but not nearly enough to negate the immense pressure he’s about to see. Making matters worse, it seems unlikely that he’ll have a healthy Demaryius Thomas at his disposal. Thomas is going to play, but he’s banged up and not nearly 100 percent. He had a tough, impending matchup versus Casey Hayward anyway.

The Broncos will have a bit more success running the ball with C.J. Anderson, who is in the best shape of his career. However, the vast running lanes will be infrequent. Denver owns a couple of stout blockers in Leary and Matt Paradis, but they’ll be going up against Brandon Mebane, who is terrific versus the rush.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Denver’s offensive line is the team’s biggest concern, but it’s far from the only one. The team’s defense, which was the reason why it won Super Bowl 50, is a shell of its former self at the moment. The Broncos lost Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan a year ago, and DeMarcus Ware and T.J. Ward this offseason. Now, they won’t have Shane Ray until Week 9. Derek Wolfe, meanwhile, admitted that he’s not 100 percent because of an injury. Excluding Wolfe, who isn’t himself at the moment, the only prominent players the Broncos have left are Von Miller, Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, Brandon Marshall and Darian Stewart.

The Broncos had issues last year, even prior to losing Ware, Ward and Ray. They couldn’t stop the run very well, and they had major issues with tight ends. As it turns out, the Chargers move the chains primarily using Melvin Gordon and their two tight ends, Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. Gordon is especially going to be difficult to contain, as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield.

Philip Rivers will want to air the ball out to Keenan Allen as well, but he’ll have issues doing this, as the Broncos’ two elite cornerbacks will be on the field. Despite Ward’s release, the “No Fly Zone” remains a thing, though I still expect Rivers to have some level of success, based on how great he is.

RECAP: The Saints were my first of two big plays this week. The Chargers are my second. In fact, if we were getting a couple more points, this would be my September NFL Pick of the Month.

The Chargers, at the current moment, are a lot better than the Broncos. I don’t think it’s even close right now. While completely healthy, the Chargers a top-10 squad that can make a deep playoff run, while the Broncos are a 7-9-ish team. The Chargers’ offense is far superior, while the two defenses are pretty close. Of course, the Chargers are bound to suffer lots of injuries, but that hasn’t occurred yet. Let’s take advantage of it while we can.

As with the 7 p.m. Monday night game, we’re getting an elite quarterback as an underdog of more than a field goal. Rivers has thrived in that role, as far as the point spread is concerned. How good has he been? Rivers is 22-9 against the spread as a road underdog of 3.5 or more points in his career. Again, this isn’t a real trend, but more of a logical outcome of a great quarterback being a sizable underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As with the Saints-Vikings game, the underdog is now +3, which is a shame because the incredible line value we had from when the spread was +5 is long gone. I still love the Chargers, however.

SATURDAY NOTES: As with the Saints-Vikings game, I’m making no adjustments here. The sharps love the Chargers, and so do I.

MONDAY EVENING NOTES: There’s so much sharp money on the Chargers that this line is now +3 -125 at CRIS and BetUS. It’s still +3 -110 at Bovada, so I want to lock that in now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Welp, let’s hope the other underdog pick hits. And let’s hope that the Chargers don’t lose their best offensive lineman like the Saints did. I love the Chargers here, a bit more so than I did the Saints, as I think they’re the better team in this matchup. That might change later in the years once the Chargers suffer their usual injuries, but they’re the play in Week 1.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
The sharp money is on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 65% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Broncos have won 10 of the last 12 meetings.

Philip Rivers is 22-9 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 or more.

Opening Line: Broncos -5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 17
Chargers +3 (5 Units) — Push; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 24, Chargers 21

Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Kansas City at New England, Atlanta at Chicago, Baltimore at Cincinnati, NY Jets at Buffalo, Pittsburgh at Cleveland, Tampa Bay at Miami, Arizona at Detroit, Philadelphia at Washington, Jacksonville at Houston, Oakland at Tennessee

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Lions +8, Raiders +8.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

Moneyline: Ravens +130 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$135

Moneyline: Saints +145 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Moneyline: Chargers +145 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)