NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115)

NFL Picks (2016): 54-39-4 (+$3,520)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 17, 5:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-1)
Line: Chiefs by 1. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -2.
Sunday, Oct 16, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Why Fantasy Football is an Abomination
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Strategy

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

DatDude’s Mock Draft
Pete Gibney’s Mock Draft
KKunert’s Mock Draft

Also, a reminder to make your pick for the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool if you’re still alive! We had 2,430 entries to start, with 690 entering Week 4. We’re now down to 625.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders have one of the most dynamic scoring attacks in the NFL, so it’s a shame we won’t get to see them matched up against Kansas City’s defense from a year ago. The Chiefs aren’t nearly the same right now; Justin Houston’s absence has severely affected the pass rush, while Sean Smith’s departure has hurt the secondary immensely.

It’s hard to imagine Oakland not posting tons of points on the Chiefs, given what we saw the Steelers do to them in Week 4. Derek Carr, stationed behind a stout offensive line, will be able to pick apart the Chiefs as long as he doesn’t target Marcus Peters. Fortunately for Carr, he has two terrific receivers, so he can just throw to the wideout not covered by Peters.

One area in which Oakland won’t excel is running the ball, though it’s not like the Raiders have been gashing everyone on the ground, or anything. Latavius Murray will play, but I don’t think that’ll matter very much against Dontari Poe. Besides, the coaching staff doesn’t even seem to like Murray very much.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs won’t be able to rely on their defense to stop the Raiders, so they’ll have to keep up with Oakland on the scoreboard. I can definitely see that happening.

The Raiders have a poor run defense, so Kansas City will look to establish Spencer Ware as much as possible. Ware has been stellar as a replacement for Jamaal Charles, who will also see more action than he did in Week 4. Ware’s running ability will allow Alex Smith to operate in short-yardage situations, though it’s not like he’d need them very much. The Raiders have no semblance of a pass rush, as Khalil Mack has been mostly quiet this season. The Chiefs tend to protect Smith fairly well, though I’m sure Smith will use his legs to pick up some first downs.

One area where Oakland excels on this side of the ball is in the secondary. David Amerson is having a tremendous season, while Sean Smith has rebounded from an ugly start. Rookie Karl Joseph, meanwhile, has lived up to the first-round hype thus far. However, considering Smith doesn’t throw downfield all that often, the strengths of Oakland’s defense will be a bit marginalized. Smith will instead focus on feeding the ball to Travis Kelce, who has to be excited after watching both Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry eat the putrid Raider linebackers alive.

RECAP: Chiefs fans, prepare to be shocked: For the first time in 10 games, dating back to last season, I’m picking your team. No, you’re not dreaming.

Unfortunately, this is going to be a small wager because the sharps have destroyed all value on this contest. If the sportsbooks didn’t have to worry about the pros and instead could just trick the public the entire time, they would’ve made this line -4 or higher. However, the spread opened Oakland -1.5 and was bet down. The pros apparently recognized what I did: These are two evenly matched teams in which the host has no sort of homefield advantage, while the visitor has enjoyed the luxury of having two weeks to prepare.

Let’s talk about that for a second: The last thing the Chiefs did on the field was get humiliated on national TV by the Steelers. They’ve had two weeks to hear about how bad they were. Andy Reid will have his team prepared. Reid, by the way, is 12-5 against he spread off a bye, so there’s definitely precedent for this.

I’m taking the Chiefs for one unit. This would be a huge play at +3 or higher, but I still think Kansas City prevails, and I think a one-unit wager is fine.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Wow, the Chiefs are now favored! That’s insane. The sharps continue to pound Kansas City, and for good reason. Unfortunately, there’s no value with th Chiefs any longer. I feel like in a simpler time, the Raiders would’ve been favored by four, and I could’ve bet heavily against them.

SATURDAY NOTES: You know how I said that three of the top four contestants are on the Redskins? This is another one where three of the four are on one side. They’re all taking the Chiefs, which isn’t a surprise because the sharps have been all over Kansas City. The weather is going to help the Chiefs. It’s going to be very windy, which will hurt Oakland’s downfield passing attack.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As with the Eagles, I’ll be rooting for the Raiders because the top players in the Supercontest have all picked the Chiefs. The sharps have as well. I don’t think it’ll happen, but it’ll be interesting to see if this gets to Raiders +3 by kickoff.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs have been hearing about how horrible they’ve been for two weeks.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

All of this is sharp money.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 67% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Road Team has won 13 of the last 19 meetings.

Andy Reid is 12-6 ATS on the West Coast.

Andy Reid is 12-5 ATS off a bye.

Raiders are 13-27 ATS after a win since 2009.

Raiders are 5-23 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 20
Chiefs -1 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 26, Raiders 10

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -6.
Sunday, Oct 16, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already.

Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he’s stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the fifth chapter, Johnny Manziel discusses his addiction, and then he and Emmitt save someone familiar. Check out the Emmitt on the Brink page to read all about it!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Many didn’t think Matt Ryan could continue to perform well against the Broncos, given that the Falcons hadn’t battled a stout stop unit all year. Ryan proved the doubters wrong, moving the chains efficiently versus Denver’s Super Bowl defense by targeting his running backs coming out of the backfield and abusing some pedestrian linebacker play.

Using this strategy could prove to be difficult in this game, however. Seattle’s back seven is very stellar, and I can’t see the Seahawks having much difficulty with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman leaking out of the backfield. Julio Jones will also be blanketed by the Legion of Boom. I’m sure he’ll accumulate a nice chunk or two of yardage, much like Brandon Marshall did two weeks ago, but when it mattered most, Richard Sherman made the play to seal the victory.

With that in mind, it’s difficult to imagine the Falcons moving the chains successfully. They won’t be able to run the ball either, as the Seahawks are stout in that regard as well. The only consistent yardage might come via garbage time.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I’m very interested in watching the Seahawks’ offensive line in this game and the next couple of weeks. For the past several seasons, their coaching staff has used the bye week to figure things out and fix the blocking unit. That could be an issue this season because Russell Okung is no longer around. However, I trust Seattle’s terrific coaches, and I’m sure they’ll come up with something.

With that in mind, those who are expecting the Falcons to replicate their pass-rushing effort this week will be disappointed. Vic Beasley racked up 3.5 sacks against Denver’s injured backup right tackle. Russell Wilson faced similar pass-rushing issues against the Jets, who have a better defensive line. He managed to get rid of the ball quickly and torch New York’s secondary. The Falcons are much better on the back end than the Jets are, but Wilson is one of the best quarterbcks in the NFL. He’ll have success airing the ball out, and I’m also curious to see if he’s regained any of his mobility during his time off.

The Seahawks should be able to run the ball as well. The Falcons haven’t had to worry about ground attacks very much because they’ve been so far ahead in most of their games, but there definitely are some liabilities that can be exposed, and Seattle runs the ball extremely well.

RECAP: I have mixed feelings about this game. On one hand, the Seahawks seem like the right side. They’re the better team and maintain a great homefield advantage. They’re coming off a bye, while the tired Falcons will be spending their second week on or near the West Coast. The public is pounding Atlanta, which seems like a trap.

On the other hand, this seems like a game in which the Seahawks are up by double digits most of the afternoon, and then Ryan throws a back-door touchdown to cover at the very end. Wagering against great quarterbacks getting lots of points like this is a very risky proposition.

I’m going to be safe and grab the points, but this is one of my least-confident picks this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps brought this up to -6.5 on Thursday morning, but the public has bet the Falcons back down to +6. I don’t like either side here, as I think this number is exactly where it should be.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is going to be another windy game, though not as severe as the Chiefs-Raiders contest. This will obviously help the Seahawks. They could definitely be the right side, but Matt Ryan definitely could throw a back-door touchdown. There’s some sharp money on the host, but not enough to take this line up to -7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a big sharp game, as the Seahawks have risen to -7. The pros pounced on Seattle late in the week and have been betting them heavily. I actually think Atlanta +7 is possibly worth a small wager, as Matt Ryan tends to throw back-door touchdowns. I’m conerned about the weather, however.

Experts like SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein nailed the Bucs’ upset of the Panthers on Monday Night Football. Did you? Get all of Larry’s NFL picks here.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Tons of public bets coming in on the underdog. The sharps are pounding Seattle.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 67% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Teams that beat the defending Super Bowl champions as underdogs are 22-31 ATS the next game since 2000.

Seahawks are 37-17 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -5.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 20
Falcons +7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 26, Falcons 24

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1)
Line: Packers by 4. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -3.5.
Sunday, Oct 16, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about the Lukas Graham song, Seven Years.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Why are people asking Jerry Jones about Tony Romo versus Dak Prescott? The Cowboys clearly aren’t going to bench Prescott as long as he keeps winning and performing on a high level. Jones is out of his mind – how many weeks in a row is he going to tell us that Dez Bryant will be playing? – so I don’t read into anything he says anymore.

I don’t see why Prescott would start struggling in this contest. The Packers have a beat-up secondary that was begging to surrender long gains to the Giants, but Eli Manning couldn’t take advantage of those opportunities because he was intoxicated. Manning was also worried about pressure because of his horrible offensive line, but Prescott won’t have to think about such issues, given that he’s shielded by the best blocking unit in football.

It’ll be difficult for Ezekiel Elliott to replicate what he’s done in recent weeks because the Packers are stout versus the rush, but I don’t think Elliott will be completely shut down. He’ll also be a factor as a receiver out of the backfield. As for Bryant, it’s uncertain if he’ll be able to play, but it sounds like he might be able to suit up. His presence would obviously aid the Cowboys’ scoring unit, but I don’t think he absolutely needs to be on the field for Dallas to put together consistent offensive drives.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I keep saying it, and yet I keep getting rewarded with back-door pushes because the Packers can’t put teams away: There’s something not quite right with Aaron Rodgers. The vintage version of Rodgers would’ve torched the Giants’ decimated secondary relentlessly, but he missed open receivers all night. This was not a one-time phenomenon. This has been going on all year, as well as last season. Something is clearly up.

If Rodgers doesn’t fix his problems, he’s in for a world of trouble against a vastly improved Dallas defense. I don’t know what he did exactly, but Morris Claiborne has been playing out of his mind this year. Claiborne just completely erased A.J. Green, and he could easily do the same thing to Jordy Nelson, especially if Rodgers is off the mark again. Randall Cobb could have a nice outing again, however.

The Cowboys aren’t as strong versus the run, but they’re not horrible against it either. Eddie Lacy was banged up in the second half against the Giants and had to remain on the sideline at the very end. It sounds like he’ll play, but he may not be 100 percent.

RECAP: We’ve lost a lot of value on the Cowboys. I was itching to bet them as 6.5-point underdogs, which was the Westgate advance line. This spread has dropped to four, but I don’t think it has fallen far enough. I had this listed as Packers -3.5, and even that may have been a bit high.

These teams have been even for the majority of the year, but you could say the Cowboys have been playing better lately. They just demolished the Bengals, and prior to that, they walloped the Bears, who have performed well since that contest. The Packers, on the other hand, have struggled to put away poor teams like the Giants and Jaguars. The one quality opponent they’ve faced was Minnesota, and the Vikings outgained them by an entire yard per play.

I like the Cowboys here, especially considering that the Packers have to play again in just four days. This will be a three-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have pounced on the Cowboys. This line was +4.5 Thursday morning, and it has since sunk to +3.5. It’s still available at +4 on 5Dimes and Bovada, so I think I’ll lock that in.

SATURDAY NOTES: I foolishly locked this in, as +5 is available at 5Dimes. The sharps have been mixed ever since betting the Cowboys early. I still like Dallas, as the spread should be closer to +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: UGH! I am an idiot. This line is now up to +6. I lost so much value by panicking and locking the Cowboys in so early. I’m not feeling great about this now, as the sharps have been betting the Packers. Regardless of what happens, I feel like I already lost because I was so dumb with locking this in for no reason.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

The Packers have to play in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
Sharp money coming in on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 64% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

The underdog is 64-36 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 29-20 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

Packers are 29-18 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 70-43 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Opening Line: Packers -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Cowboys 24, Packers 21
Cowboys +4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 30, Packers 16

Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Houston Texans (3-2)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -3.
Sunday, Oct 16, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Texans.

Trolling will continue. I can’t attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They’ve also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook. Here’s a short one:

The Seahawks are on a bye, but that doesn’t mean that I’ll take a week off from trolling! Here, I raided the 49ers Facebook page prior to the Thursday game and talked about Colin “Kaspersnisks” and Carson “Pallmar” throwing five interceptions each.

I love how Peter Peter figured out that Mario’s first language may not be English. Good job, sleuth! Here were the rest of the responses:

Thanks for the suggestion that Mario needs grammar lessons, Zakk Rogers. I’m sure Mario will get right on that.

I continued to troll the NFC West, moving to the Cardinals’ page:

If you couldn’t tell, I told the Cardinals fans that “Doug Baldwing” is better than Larry Fitzgerald, which, as you can imagine, got them all riled up. Here are more responses to the post:

As you can see, trolling people makes me very happy, though I would be lying if I told you I didn’t long for the days when I trolled that creepy Aaron guy as some Lyla chick on the old NFL.com GameCenter.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: There’s heavy criticism coming in on Brock Osweiler, and for good reason. Osweiler has struggled immensely in a couple of games this season and does not look like the type of quarterback who deserved a big-money contract. Osweiler has completed just 58 percent of his passes on a 6.0 YPA this season, and he has thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6). Doesn’t seem like a $72 million quarterback to me!

Fortunately for Osweiler, he has a very easy matchup that could allow him to pump up his stats. The man he replaced, Brian Hoyer, just nearly threw for 400 yards against the Colts, so you have to figure that Osweiler should be able to potentially eclipse those numbers. Mike Adams is playing well for Indianapolis, but that’s about it in terms of the secondary. Vontae Davis has not seemed like himself, as he’s still dealing with an injury, so I don’t think he’ll be able to defend either DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller.

Of course, Osweiler could just hand the ball off to Lamar Miller and watch his running back do all the work. The Colts are abysmal in terms of stopping the run, so Miller could finally have the huge performance Houston has been waiting for ever since they signed him to a big contract.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: When the schedule first was released, Andrew Luck had to have looked at this game and wondered how many sacks he would take from J.J. Watt in his first matchup against him. Watt, however, is out for the season, and Houston’s pass rush isn’t nearly as potent. Whitney Mercilus is getting decent pressure on the quarterback, but that’s about it. Jadeveon Clowney has been inconsistent, and I can’t see him winning too many matchups against Anthony Castonzo. Without Watt, the Texans don’t have the interior personnel to take advantage of the liabilities the Colts have there.

With that in mind, I think Luck could put together a strong performance. The Texans have some glaring issues in their secondary; Johnathan Joseph has been woeful, while the two safeties have struggled as well. Luck was on fire against the Bears, and I think he’ll likely stay hot versus a Houston defensive backfield that couldn’t contain Sam Bradford and Adam Thielen.

The Texans will at least stop the rush. Watt’s absence hurts, but Vince Wilfork is still there to clog the interior, and he’s still getting the job done. That’s at least one matchup advantage for Houston on this side of the ball.

RECAP: The Texans are the better team, but how much stronger are they? Their three victories have come at home, but they’ve been against either middling or poor teams. They were losing to the Bears in the second half; they struggled to put away the Chiefs; and they were tied at 20 late against the Titans before a punt return touchdown. The two tough opponents they’ve battled thus far have destroyed them, and one was starting Jacoby Brissett!

I wouldn’t consider the Colts to be a tough opponent, but they are a rival, and I think the Texans being favored here could hurt them. There’s a lot of pressure on their shoulders to perform on national TV, and I think they could suffer a letdown. Plus, Luck is on the other side to keep this game close. I don’t think the Colts will ever be out of it, and Luck could throw a back-door cover or push at the end.

I’m going to pick Indianapolis for two units. It just seems like Houston is set up to fail.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been no movement here; the public has been mixed, while the sharps haven’t taken a side yet. I still think the Colts are the play, as the overrated Texans seem likely to choke under pressure.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans are going to be missing two starters on the offensive line, but that may not matter because the Colts don’t have a pass rush. What’s important is that the sharps are pounding the visitor. This line is now +3 -120 everywhere, though it’s still +3 -115 at Bovada. I’ll hold off before locking this in.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were taking the Colts for a bit on Saturday evening, but those bets just stopped coming in. Ultimately, there’s no public or sharp side in this contest. I still like the Colts for two units. As mentioned, it seems like the Texans could choke in a game they’re “supposed” to win over a big rival, and Andrew Luck could easily throw for a back-door score toward the end. Colts +3 +100 is available at 5Dimes.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Texans are favored over the Colts on a big stage, which seems like an opportunity for them to choke.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 53% (49,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 23 of the 28 meetings.

Andrew Luck is 14-5 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Texans -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Texans 20
Colts +3 +100 (2 Units) — Push; $0
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 26, Colts 23

New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3)
Line: Cardinals by 7.5. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -7 (Palmer) or Cardinals -2.5 (Stanton).
Monday, Oct 17, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Arizona, home of the Cardinals. Tonight, the Arizona Cardinals take on the New York Jets. Guys, the network heads called me during the week and told me they’ve gotten complaints about me screwing up during games and being vulgar so I’ve been doing research all week. That makes me more prepared for this game than that idiot Herm is. Ha, suck it Herm!

Herm: HERM’S PREPARED! HERM’S READY! HERM’S GONNA ROLL! HERM STUDIED! STUDIED HARD! STUDIED LONG! STUDIED STRONG! STUDIED ALL NIGHT! BURNED THE MIDNIGHT OIL! MIDNIGHT OIL IS HOT! MIDNIGHT OIL IS BURNING! MIDNIGHT OIL WILL BURN YOUR HANDS! BURN YOUR TONGUE! IF YOU TRY TO EAT THE MIDNIGHT OIL! HERM EATS THE MIDNIGHT OIL! TASTES GOOD! TASTES GREAT! THEN HERM GETS SICK! PROBABLY BECAUSE HERM ATE TOO MUCH MIDNIGHT OIL! SOMETIMES HERM SPENDS HOURS IN THE BATHROOM! HERM HAS TO GO TO THE BATHROOM NOW! BUT HERM CAN’T BECAUSE HE’S BEING ASKED TO TALK! HERM’S GOTTA TALK! BUT HERM’S GOTTA DROP A DEUCE! HERM’S GONNA DROP A DEUCE IN HIS PANTS! HOPE IT DOESN’T SMELL TOO BAD! AHH… ahh…

Millen: Herman, what you’re doing is very interesting, to say the least. I’ve always inserted kielbasas into my 100-percent USDA Men’s backsides, but I never considered that stuff can come out of their backsides as well. I’ll tell them to drop deuces tonight, and then I’ll stick it back up their backsides!

Tollefson: Shut up, weirdo. Actually, this made me think of a poop machine I’ve invented. Matthew, if you really want to shove feces up the butt holes of your friends, I can sell you a machine that makes poop. Just give me $50,000 for the down payment, and I’ll get it to you soon, I promise. You’re not a woman, so you’re obviously capable of making intelligent decisions, so I’m sure you’ll accept my offer.

Millen: Oh boy, who do I make the check out to? I can’t wait to shove poop into the backsides of my 100-percent USDA Men!

Reilly: Shut up idiots, no one cares! I’m trying to study for football here. OK, the Cardinals have a good receiver apparently in Larry Fitzgeralds. He’s good because he can catch passes. And his quarterbacks are not good, there’s Kevin Kolb and John Skeleton, what a bunch of losers. The Jets have Mark Sanchez at quarterback. Wait, Sanchez is on the Jets again?

Emmitt: Minkus, why you reading from a book right now? Should you not knowed the player name by heart or by brain? And why do your book say 2012 NFL Guide? 2012 was a year that happen four month ago!

Reilly: Emmitt, this is the only guide that was at Mother’s house. I don’t know why she had a 2012 guide, but it’s the best I could do. I would’ve bought a 2016 guide, but I used my allowance on a Carson Wentz bobblehead doll.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by allowance. You ask for something, and you’re either allowed or declined. If you’re allowed, it’s called an allowance, but if you’re declined, that’s called a decliance. Allowance and decliance are opposites. I have some other examples of opposites if you’re not sure what I mean. Hot and cold are opposites because hot is warm and cold is not warm. Apples and oranges are opposites, too, because you don’t want to compare them. And don’t forget ninja and tacos. They are opposites because ninjas don’t like to eat tacos.

Wolfley: NINJAS LIKE TO EAT TACOS, THAT’S A FALLACY. IN FACT, MY NEXT DOOR NEIGHBOR IS A NINJA AND HE EATS TACOS EVERY WEDNESDAY. HE CALLS IT TACO TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH IT’S WEDNESDAY AND I TOLD HIM TO CALL IT TACO WEDNESDAY BUT HE THREW A NINJA STAR AT MY FOREHEAD AND I BLED IN MY DRIVEWAY FOR SIX HOURS UNTIL SOMEONE SAW ME AND CALLED THE PARAMEDICS.

Reilly: No one cares about you or your ninja stars, you fool…

Charles Davis: Let’s talk about more ninja weapons, Kevin. How about nunchuks, Kevin? How about throwing knives, Kevin? Let’s discuss blowguns, Kevin. Why don’t we talk about nunchuks again, Kevin? Sometimes it’s called a nunchaku, Kevin. What about samurai swords, Kevin? Let’s see if you can name the three-edge blade, Kevin. I’ll give you 716,000 guesses, Kevin. Let’s see you get it right in one try, Kevin.

Reilly: I don’t even care anymore. This book sucks! It doesn’t even have Carson Wentz’s name anywhere!

Charles Davis: That’s because it’s a 2012 book, Kevin. And the correct answer is sai, Kevin. Wait, why do you actually have a sai in your hands, Kevin?

Reilly: I HID IT IN MY 2012 NFL GUIDE AND NOW I’M GOING TO KILL YOU AND THE STUPID PRODUCERS WHO WON’T LET ME CURSE AND TALK ABOUT THE EAGLES ALL THE TIME, HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! We’ll be back after this!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Spreads for this game aren’t available at every sportsbook. I imagine that’s because of Carson Palmer, but he has cleared protocol and will suit up for Monday’s game.

I imagine John Brown and Michael Floyd are extremely relieved upon hearing the news. Larry Fitzgerald has proven that he can produce with any quarterback, but the same can’t be said for Brown and Floyd, who barely did anything last Thursday at San Francisco. That said, not everything is perfect because Palmer didn’t appear to be 100 percent even before sustaining his concussion. I pointed out that he had a massive amount of dropped interceptions the first two weeks and that finally caught up to him versus the Bills and Rams. Palmer can redeem himself in this easy matchup – the Jets can’t cover anyone – but it’s not clear if Palmer will take advantage of New York’s liabilities, or if he’ll continue to struggle.

Palmer will need to excel because the Cardinals have a tough matchup on the ground. New York’s run defense is stout, and it’ll have a particularly dominant edge in this contest because both of Arizona’s starting guards are out of the lineup. David Johnson will be effective as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but his rushing yardage will be limited.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Now that Palmer’s status has been determined, the major injury question leading up to this game has to deal with Nick Mangold. One of the elite centers in the NFL, Mangold’s presence is extremely important to the Jets’ success. New York began losing last year when Mangold was either out or banged up, so it’s no surprise that the Jets failed to score a single point at Pittsburgh once Mangold got knocked out of the lineup.

Mangold is currently considered questionable with his knee injury. The issue – and this occurred last year – is that Mangold could suit up and exit the game early. His absence will create huge problems, as the Jets will struggle to pass protect and run block without him, particularly against Calais Campbell. Meanwhile, Chandler Jones figures to win the matchup against Ryan Clady, all while Brandon Marshall deals with Patrick Peterson. It’d be nice if the Jets had Eric Decker available for this contest to take advantage of the other starting cornerback, Marcus Cooper, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be able to play.

Of course, things change with a healthy Mangold under center, but it’s almost impossible to determine whether that’ll be the case, especially this early in the week.

RECAP: I’m currently leaning toward the Jets because the Cardinals continue to be overvalued. Palmer is definitely not the same, while their offensive line currently has three glaring holes, which doesn’t sound like a good scenario against New York’s stout defensive line. If I knew Mangold were completely healthy, this would be a three-unit selection at the very least.

Unfortunately, Mangold’s status is unclear. Perhaps that’ll change during the week, and if so, either check back or follow me @walterfootball for updates. For now, this is a zero-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has been bouncing back and forth between +8 and +7.5. I don’t have a strong update here, as I’m waiting on Nick Mangold’s status. Hopefully we’ll know something about him soon, though it’s not looking good; Mangold missed practice Thursday.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s still no news on Mangold, who’s questionable. This spread keeps bouncing between +7.5 and +8. The public keeps betting it up to -8, and the sharps take +8 down to +7.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been waiting on Nick Mangold’s status to determine where I would be going with this. Mangold will be active, but my concern is whether or not he’ll last the entire game, and if he’s close to 100 percent or not. If Mangold is 80 percent or better, and he lasts all 60 minutes, I think there’s a very good chance the Jets will cover this spread, as this line is too high. Arizona is not nearly as good as it was last year, yet the books are still pricing it that way. Think about it: The Jets were underdogs of about the same amount at the Steelers, who are better than the Cardinals. However, the risk is that Mangold will get knocked out early, and if that happens, Arizona will likely win by double digits. I’m going to take a one-unit shot on the Jets +7.5 -105 (at Bovada), hoping that Mangold lasts four quarters. The sharps, by the way, were on the Jets at +8 and +7.5, but not so much at +7.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Jets are desperate for a win. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have had extra time off after a win and now could be looking past the Jets because they have the Seahawks and Panthers after this game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 58% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 10-4 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

Bruce Arians is 33-22 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Cardinals are 3-13 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 15 instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -7.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Jets 24
Jets +7.5 -105 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$105
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 28, Jets 3

Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games
Denver at San Diego, Philadelphia at Washington, Los Angeles at Detroit, Cincinnati at New England, Carolina at New Orleans, Baltimore at NY Giants, Cleveland at Tennessee, San Francisco at Buffalo, Jacksonville at Chicago, Pittsburgh at Miami

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline: Bengals +315 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Ravens +165 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline: Saints +135 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$65

Moneyline: Dolphins +270 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$135

Moneyline: Browns +270 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline: Cowboys +180 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$90

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)