NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2014): 5-11 (-$1,390)

NFL Picks (2014): 101-101-6 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 8, 4:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games

Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Denver Broncos (9-3)
Line: Broncos by 9.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -12.
Sunday, Dec. 7, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

We’re going to have new features on the site shortly, beginning with something we published recently. You can go here to Create Your Own Power Rankings – and once you do, people will be sending you hate mail, just like they do for my NFL Power Rankings.

DENVER OFFENSE: I lost seven units with the Broncos last Sunday night, but it wasn’t Peyton Manning who beat me. Manning made some nice throws in the opening half, but was just 4-of-14 for 34 yards after intermission. It didn’t look like the Chiefs were dominating him; Manning just seemed to struggle in the frigid, windy conditions.

The good news for Manning is that it’s expected to be 54 and sunny on Sunday. The bad news is that he’ll be battling a four-man front that can consistently pressure the quarterback without blitzing. That has given Manning immense trouble throughout his career. He exploits blitzes with ease – it was befuddling watching Kansas City foolishly blitz in the first half – but he doesn’t nearly have as much success if a four-man line is breathing down his neck. I imagine Mario Williams and company will put plenty of heat on him.

The Broncos were able to escape Kansas City with a victory via C.J. Anderson’s tough running. Anderson won’t nearly has much success this Sunday; the Chiefs are dead last against the run, while the Bills are a solid seventh (3.67 YPC), though it’s worth noting that their YPC allowed over the past four weeks has been a shaky 4.51.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills have a great defense, but their issues are on this side of the ball. Kyle Orton tried to give the game away last week, but Brian Hoyer was that much worse. Unfortunately for Orton, he’ll be matched up against a much tougher stop unit that seemed to find its groove last Sunday after struggling for a couple of games.

The Broncos, who are tied for fifth in the NFL in sacks (34), brought down the mobile Alex Smith six times on Sunday. I don’t trust Buffalo’s offensive line to protect Orton very well. Orton has taken just five sacks in the past four weeks, but the last time the Bills were up against a stout pass rush, Orton barely had any time to throw in a 22-9 loss at Miami.

Buffalo won’t be running very well to support Orton. Fred Jackson looks like a shell of his former self, and even if he were still a very capable player, he’d have issues against Denver’s No. 2 ground defense, which has permitted only one team to gain more than 100 yards on the ground this season.

RECAP: I’m puzzled as to why the public isn’t pounding Denver. The Broncos are a public team, and this spread seems (and is) too short. I have the Broncos calculated at -12, so we’re getting some nice and unusual value with Manning, who is a solid 4-1 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite of 10-plus as a member of the Broncos (lone exception was a failed cover versus Jacksonville as a 26-point favorite last year). This is not surprising in the slightest, as he’s the King of the Regular Season.

I wish the Broncos weren’t in a sandwich situation of sorts – they just beat the Chiefs, and they have San Diego next week – but they should be able to beat the Bills, who lost their only other challenging road game this year to the Dolphins, 22-9 (though they were the right side). I’m taking Denver for two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It took the public some time, but they finally started betting the Broncos. This game reminds me of Denver-Arizona from earlier in the year. The Cardinals took their great defense into Mile High, but just couldn’t score against Denver’s equally stout stop unit. The Broncos seem like the right side.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps are on the Bills, but they’re just taking a number. A better number is Peyton Manning’s ATS record at home versus non-divisional opponents as a big favorite.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

Following a divisional victory over the Chiefs, the Broncos have to battle the Chargers and Bengals over the next two weeks.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

It took a while for the public to bet this game, but the money finally came in.

Percentage of money on Denver: 75% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Bills are 6-16 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.

True home teams are 19-9 ATS in the last 28 Bills games.

Peyton Manning is 5-7 SU when the temperature is 32 degrees or colder.

Opening Line: Broncos -10.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Broncos 28, Bills 13
Broncos -9.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 24, Bills 17

Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-3)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -3.5.
Sunday, Dec. 7, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 37 people remain. We lost just two entries last week. Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals have been abysmal offensively in their previous two games. Actually, they’ve done nothing ever since Drew Stanton threw his second touchdown pass against the Lions early in a Week 11 contest. Stanton missed open receivers all evening at Atlanta, prompting many to question if Arizona is even going to win another game this year.

There are, however, two bits of good news for the Cardinals. The first is that Larry Fitzgerald could be back this week. Bruce Arians said he expects Fitzgerald to return in practice early this week. Fitzgerald has sorely been missed, as his presence makes things easier for everyone else, including Michael Floyd, who was blanked two weeks ago. The Chiefs looked lost defensively without Eric Berry on Sunday night, so perhaps they’ll leave more open receivers for Stanton to miss. At least the wideouts will be more talented.

The other good news is that Arizona may not have to rely on Stanton at all. The Chiefs possess the worst run defense in the NFL – and it’s not even close. With key players like Berry and Derrick Johnson missing, Kansas City is surrendering 5.14 YPC. The 31st-ranked ground defense permits 4.92 YPC! The Chiefs have yielded 147.2 yards on the ground on average the past five weeks. They don’t have a dominant back to stop this time, but if C.J. Anderson can pound the rock effectively against them, so can Marion Grice.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Cardinals didn’t look too hot against the run themselves last week when Steven Jackson played like the 2006 version of himself. I would not expect a repeat performance. Arizona, which has the NFL’s No. 5 ground defense (3.57 YPC), will welcome back Matt Shaughnessy to the lineup. Shaughnessy, who has been missing since Week 5, is a terrific run defender.

The Cardinals will obviously need Shaughnessy in this matchup because they’ll be going up against Jamaal Charles. The explosive runner has proven to be matchup-proof, unless, of course, his own coach is stopping him. Limiting his huge gains will be key though, and with Shaughnessy on the field, Arizona will have the personnel to make that happen.

Of course, Arizona has other key players who are missing, including Tyrann Mathieu, who is out for the year. Mathieu’s absence will be a factor down the road, but not in this matchup. Alex Smith has not thrown a single touchdown pass to a receiver for a reason. Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie will have an easy time covering Dwayne Bowe and the other pedestrian Kansas City wideouts, though Smith will still move the chains on occasions via his legs and passes to his tight ends; Arizona has struggled to cover players at that position this year.

RECAP: The Cardinals are one of my top picks this week. Four units for four reasons:

1. These are two even teams. Both own defenses that have one weakness, but are otherwise stellar. Both have a play-maker on offense. Both have a struggling quarterback. Both have pedestrian offensive lines. Despite Arizona’s two recent losses, these squads are equal. Yet, we’re getting less than a field goal with the host despite the fact that Arizona has a tremendous homefield advantage.

2. Speaking of that homefield advantage, all the Cardinals do is win as hosts. Oh, and cover, too. They’re 25-10 against the spread at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

3. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are going to have trouble getting up for this game, as they suffered a tough loss to the Broncos. Andy Reid had extra time preparing for that contest, yet Kansas City still couldn’t beat Denver. The Chiefs have to feel dispirited.

4. As usual, a strong trend to complement our selection: Home teams with winning records coming off two consecutive road losses are 50-29 ATS since 1989. This trend is 2-1 ATS this year; most recently, the Lions covered in this dynamic just last week against Chicago.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, I can’t believe the Chiefs are now favored. That’s crazy. These teams are even – Vegas has them in the 14-16 range – yet Arizona is a home dog on its awesome homefield, which doesn’t make any sense. I’m adding a fifth unit.

SUNDAY NOTES: Uhh… what? This spread is up to +3? Crazy. The sharps and public are on the Chiefs. I love how everyone loves Kansas City for its defense, yet the Chiefs are dead last against the run. With their backs to the wall, the Cardinals are primed to rebound.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Cardinals have to end their losing streak, while the Chiefs are coming off an emotional loss against the Broncos.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
There’s a decent amount of action on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 62% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 24-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 25-10 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Cardinals 24, Chiefs 20
Cardinals +3 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 17, Chiefs 14

San Francisco 49ers (7-5) at Oakland Raiders (1-11)
Line: 49ers by 9. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -4.
Sunday, Dec. 7, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! A thief steals Emmitt’s trusty atlas. Can Josh Gordon help him retrieve it?

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: There’s not much to say about this scoring unit. Not much positive, anyway. Colin Kaepernick has regressed terribly, for some reason. He’s very inconsistent, thanks mostly to his reluctance to scramble. Kaepernick became a super star when he gashed the Packers on the ground a couple of Januarys ago, but he has inexplicably stopped using his legs, which has really hurt both his future outlook and his current team.

Frank Gore is one of the players who has mostly suffered. Without Kaepernick being a threat to take off, opposing defenses have been able to key in on Gore, who hasn’t eclipsed 100 rushing yards since Week 5. You may think that the Raiders might be able to end that dubious streak at first glance, based on how well Tre Mason performed last week, but if you exclude what Mason did – Oakland didn’t try, after all – the Raiders would actually be ranked 12th against the rush in terms of YPC.

As for Kaepernick’s throwing ability, that has been underwhelming as well. Kaepernick has maintained a YPA Of 6.7 or worse in four of his previous six starts. He couldn’t even consistently move the chains against the anemic Washington secondary, while Andrew Luck posted 49 points against that same unit just one week later. Part of the problem has been Vernon Davis’ lethargy; the tight end hasn’t tried at all, and I don’t expect him to give full effort anytime soon, barring Jim Harbaugh bringing back Mike Singletary to strip down his pants and moon the disgruntled tight end.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: This unit was a mess last week, but perhaps getting Latavius Murray back from concussion will help. Murray provided some explosion two weeks ago for a San Francisco backfield that has been anemic all season, but he has sorely been missed. Derek Carr had to do everything by himself this past Sunday, and that ended in disaster.

Murray, who has been cleared, could spark the Raiders again. The 49ers have surrendered at least 120-plus yards on the ground to three of their four previous opponents. Carr will need someone like Murray to move the chains because San Francisco can still put the clamps on aerial attacks and get after the quarterback; with Aldon Smith back on the field, the 49ers have registered nine sacks in their previous two games, which doesn’t bode well for Carr, who was sacked a whopping six times last week.

RECAP: This may shock you because I’ve stayed away from the Raiders all season (except for Week 1), but I absolutely love them in this game. No, I’m not crazy. I have legitimate reasons:

First of all, this is Oakland’s Super Bowl. The Raiders HATE the 49ers. Save for the Broncos, San Francisco is Oakland’s biggest rival. The NFL had to cancel preseason games between the two teams because of the ridiculous amount of violence in the stands. The Raiders have long been eliminated from the playoffs, but this is their Super Bowl. They didn’t try at all last week because they were looking forward to this game.

Also, the 49ers have no business being favored by this many points over anyone – even the Raiders. There is something terribly wrong with them. They’re so dysfunctional right now, and I couldn’t see them focusing on this contest anyway, given that they have the Seahawks next week.

You might be wondering: Isn’t Oakland a poisonous team? Absolutely, but this means everything to them, and this spread doesn’t make any sense. If I trusted the Raiders more, this would be a selection of five units or more, but I’ll keep it to three. Oh, and I’m projecting Oakland to win outright.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Check out these two stats: Teams favored after playing Seattle are just 7-21 ATS in the previous 28 instances. That makes sense, as the Seahawks are very physical. Also, home underdogs of 3.5-plus off 30-point losses are 60-30 ATS since 2001 (excluding Thursday and Monday games). Like I said, if I trusted the Raiders more, this would be a huge play.

SUNDAY NOTES: This line keeps rising because the public is throwing tons of money on the 49ers. No complaints from me.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The 49ers have the Seahawks next week. The Raiders would love to beat a huge rival.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

All of the money is on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 77% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 10-4 ATS with Jim Harbaugh off extra rest.

Jim Harbaugh is 6-1 ATS off a loss as a favorite.

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 7-21 ATS.

Raiders are 16-8 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008. ???

Opening Line: 49ers -7.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Raiders 16, 49ers 13
Raiders +9 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 24, 49ers 13

Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -1.
Sunday, Dec. 7, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Lifeguard Training Day.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I questioned Russell Wilson’s declaration that he and his team recovered their mojo in a victory over the Cardinals in Week 12. Wilson proved me wrong, as the Seahawks completely dominated the 49ers on Thanksgiving. This team looked like the Seahawks of old, as Marshawn Lynch gashed a solid San Francisco ground defense for 104 yards on just 20 carries.

Running on the Eagles will be much more difficult, however. Whereas the 49ers just dropped to 15th against the rush, the Eagles are a solid sixth, giving up 3.67 YPC. They even limited DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys to just 94 yards on the ground on 24 attempts. However, stopping Lynch, when he’s fully motivated, might be more difficult than containing Murray because opposing defenses also have to worry about Wilson’s scrambles.

Speaking of Wilson, he has got into a nice groove during the past couple of weeks, going a combined 32-of-44 for 447 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers against two very tough Arizona and San Francisco defenses. Battling Philadelphia’s secondary will seem much easier, as the Eagles’ defensive backs have given up plenty of big gains this season. Then again, Philadelphia could put tons of pressure on Wilson; the team is second in the NFL in sacks (42), and Wilson isn’t protected very well.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez was outstanding on Thanksgiving, and now everyone in the media seems to be saying that the former Jet has found a permanent home in Philadelphia. This, however, is just one game after Sanchez single-handedly kept the Titans in the game by throwing right to some of their players.

I don’t want to take away anything from Sanchez’s performance in Dallas because he was brilliant, but he can’t be trusted at all, especially against a superior defense like Seattle’s. The Cowboys have a terrible stop unit that has finally shown its true colors ever since Colt McCoy torched them on Monday Night Football, but the Seahawks boast a tremendous secondary that is complemented by a pass rush that has previously struggled, but has accumulated seven sacks in its previous two games.

The Seahawks have also improved their rush defense. They were completely susceptible to the run earlier in the year, especially in a loss at Kansas City, but that appears to have changed in the wake of linebacker Bobby Wagner’s return from injury. Wagner has sparked this defense, so LeSean McCoy, who has also been hot of late, could find it more challenging to run on Seattle, as opposed to how easy it was versus abomination-type stop units like Tennessee or Dallas’.

RECAP: What a weird game. I don’t think I’ve ever seen two teams have a contest sandwiched one week between battling two identical opponents. Thus, I have no interest in betting this game.

I really could make a case for either side. For the Seahawks, it’s that they’re the better team, and they’re playing in their second-consecutive road game, which is typically a good spot for teams. For the Eagles, it’s that they may take this game more seriously than Seattle, given that they’d like to beat the defending Super Bowl champs.

Gun to my head, I’m going with Seattle, but you couldn’t pay me to wager on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no opinion on this game. Nothing that happens in this contest would surprise me.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Seahawks are now favored, as both the sharps and public have bet them. I have no interest.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is a weird spot for both the Seahawks and Eagles, as this game is sandwiched between the 49ers and Cowboys, respectively.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Seahawks are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 70% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Seahawks are 22-35 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Seahawks are 4-11 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 10-1 ATS as an underdog. ???

Eagles are 13-27 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Eagles 23
Seahawks PK (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 24, Eagles 14

New England Patriots (9-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-4)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 52.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -3.
Sunday, Dec. 7, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I moved the Chargers up to No. 6 in my NFL Power Rankings this week because Philip Rivers is healthy again. Rivers looked like a shell of himself since halftime of the Denver game on Thursday night up until Sunday’s contest. He thrived at Baltimore; despite the early start time and a swarming Baltimore pass rush, he showed strong pocket presence and found his receivers, who had no issues getting open against the Ravens’ miserable secondary.

Keenan Allen and Eddie Royal won’t have such an easy matchup this time. Instead of battling scrub corners, they’ll be going up against Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. Thus, Rivers won’t have as much success moving the chains. New England’s pass rush isn’t as potent as Baltimore’s, but Rivers will still be under siege quite often, given how much his offensive line has struggled this season.

If there’s some hope for the Chargers, outside of Rivers having an otherworldly performance, it’s that they might be able to establish the run on New England. Whereas the stingy Baltimore ground defense limited San Diego to just 45 rushing yards, the Patriots could have a bit of trouble containing Ryan Mathews, as they are just average in terms of containing opposing backs.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Brandon Flowers being healthy has provided a great boost for the Chargers as well; he completely put the clamps on Steve Smith this past Sunday. However, Flowers just isn’t as prevalent in this matchup.

Who is Flowers going to cover? Brandon LaFell? If so, that’s fine. Tom Brady will have an answer for that, and not just Rob Gronkowski, though the monstrous tight end will dominate as usual. Brady is fully capable of spreading the ball around, so Flowers taking LaFell away won’t be very detrimental for New England. Besides, even with Flowers smothering Smith, Joe Flacco was still able to move the chains consistently, until reaching the red zone, at least.

The Chargers, like the Patriots, are pretty average against the run. The Ravens just gashed San Diego for 122 yards on 30 carries, so the Patriots could post similar numbers. People have been clamoring for Bill Belichick to use Jonas Gray again, but LeGarrette Blount is just fine; if given the chance, he could approach triple digits, as the Chargers will be so focused on stopping Brady.

RECAP: This game will be fun to watch, but it’s not pleasant to wager on. That’s because I can make a strong case for either side. For the Chargers, it’s that this spread is inflated because there will be tons of public money coming in on the Patriots in a prime-time affair. San Diego is also going to benefit from Circadian rhythms. For the Patriots, we’re getting Brady off a loss, so they’ll be fully focused. New England has also dominated the Chargers, who are coming off an emotional win.

I’m taking the Patriots as an office-pool pick, but I won’t have any money on either side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This now has the look of an 85-15 game, which is extra meaningful because it’s a nationally televised game. I don’t want to bet on that, but I don’t want to go against Brady and Belichick off a loss.

SUNDAY NOTES: This doesn’t fit 85-15 anymore, but it’s still very risky to take the Patriots, especially on a Sunday night, given that Vegas is drawing more action than normal. However, Steven from FootballFanSpot.com and some e-mailers reminded me that New England remained on the West Coast all week, so the team might not be affected by Circadian rhythms. I’m still taking the Patriots, who are -3.5 in most places. If, however, you like San Diego, I’d recommend Bovada, where you can get +4.5 -105.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

The Chargers are coming off an emotional win against the Ravens.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

This has the potential to be an 85-15 game.

Percentage of money on New England: 83% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 169-57 as a starter (129-92 ATS).

Tom Brady is 9-2 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 3 points. ???

Tom Brady is 32-14 ATS off a loss (4-8 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 24-10 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-7 ATS as -7 or more).

Bill Belichick is 16-5 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Philip Rivers is 29-18 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (12-5 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Patriots 37, Chargers 30
Patriots -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 52 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 23, Chargers 14

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Line: Packers by 12.5. Total: 55.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -11.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -13.
Monday, Dec. 8, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Packers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers will be battling the Atlanta Hawks. Guys, I’m sure you’ve seen the Aaron Rodgers commercials for All-State where he’s with two bodybuilders named Hans and Frans. I’ve decided to ask Hans and Frans to train me like they did with Rodgers so I’m powerful enough to help my Eagles win and to also beat up the bully next door. What do you think of my strategy?

Emmitt: Mace, you must understand that violent is never the answer. If a bully call you name, just say the saying, stick and stone can debacle my bone, but names can always hurt me. If a bully hittin’ you hard, then you must become like the pacific Mohammed Moagandi and not even throw a punch.

Reilly: Screw that idiot. I need Hans and Frans to beef me up so I can destroy that bully!

Millen: It’s funny that you should mention beef along with Hans and Frans. I couldn’t find any 100-percent USDA Men here this week, so I played that State Farm commercial on an endless loop while shoving some long, juicy kielbasas into my own backside. I enjoy riding other young stallions all night long, of course, but sometimes it’s best to enjoy your own company as long as you can watch two muscular men with meat in your backside.

Herm: BUT HANS AND FRANS AREN’T REAL! THEY’RE NOT REAL! HANS IS NOT REAL! FRANS IS NOT REAL! HANS IS FICTION! FRANS IS FICTION! HANS AND FRANS ARE FICTION! THEY’RE MADE-UP CHARACTERS! HANS IS A MADE-UP CHARACTER! FRANS IS A MADE-UP CHARACTER! HANS IS A MADE-UP CHARACTER! WAIT, HERM ALREADY SAID HANS! HERM SAID HANS TWICE! WHY DID HERM SAY HANS TWICE!? WHY DIDN’T HERM SAY FRANS TWICE!? DOES HERM LIKE HANS!? DOES HERM NOT LIKE FRANS!? DOES THAT MEAN HERM IS GAY!? HOW CAN HERM BE GAY!? IF HERM IS GAY, THEN I’M GAY! BECAUSE I’M HERM! SO I’M GAY! OR I’M… Herm… gay… uhh…

Reilly: Herm, shut the f*** up. No one’s paying attention to you or your idiotic rants. Guys, how can I get in touch with Hans and Frans?

Fouts: I know how you can get in touch with Hans and Frans. You have several options, Kevin. First, you can dial random numbers and ask for Hans and Frans. To do that, you go to the telephone store, buy a telephone, and then pick it up and place it next to your ear. The thin part that looks like it goes next to the ear; not the heavy part with all the buttons. Then, use your finger to hit numbers. I recommend starting with all zeroes and working your way up to the nines. So, your first number should be 000-000-0000. If that fails, try 000-000-0001, then 000-000-0002, and so on. Your second option is to look through the phone book for people whose names begin with Hans and Frans. To do this, you need to buy a phone book. You can try Amazon.com. Contrary to popular opinion, the Amazon.com is not a river in Egypt, or a river on Egypt.com! It’s a Web site where you can buy stuff from people in Egypt.

Reilly: I’m not cold calling people to ask for Hans and Frans! I need connections. Don, you know famous people. Can you help me so I can beat her up?

Tollefson: Her? Did you just say her?

Reilly: Yeah, the girl is mean and keeps taking my lunch money. I need to get pumped up!

Tollefson: Kevin, how many times do I have to tell you? When dealing with grown women, you need to tell them to shut the f*** up, strip down naked and cook and clean for you.

Reilly: I know, I remember you told me that. But what if she’s not fully grown? She just started eighth grade!

Tollefson: Ehh… I con people, but you’re on your own with that one, Kev.

Charles Davis: Kevin, did you know you’re a p***y, Kevin? Did you know that there are several types of p***sies, Kevin? For example, there are men who get beat up by women, Kevin. Then there are men who live with their mom, Kevin. How about men who get beat up by little girls, Kevin? What about men who have posters of football players above their beds, Kevin? And let’s not forget men who get pushed around by little girls, Kevin. Do you know who I’m talking about, Kevin? I’ll give you three guesses, Kevin. Wait, I changed my mind because little girls beat you up, Kevin. I’m talking about you, Kevin.

Reilly: I’M NOT A F***ING P***Y SHE’S BIG FOR HER AGE, MOTHER EVEN SAID SO!!! We’ll be back after this!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s pretty obvious to state that Aaron Rodgers will torch Atlanta’s defense in this game. The Falcons, of course, have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They just shut down the Cardinals for the most part, but that’s because Drew Stanton missed open receivers throughout the evening. Rodgers absolutely will not do that.

I have no idea how the Falcons can possibly slow the Packers down. They have the 29th-ranked pass defense, in terms of YPA, and they’ve recorded the second-fewest sacks in the NFL. Rodgers, who is protected very well, should be able to dissect Atlanta’s stop unit with ease. The Falcons’ only hope is that Rodgers and his teammates commit sloppy turnovers, which is possible, given that Green Bay is coming off such a huge victory.

Then again, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception at home this year. He won’t have to do it all himself; Eddie Lacy figures to run all over a defense that is just two weeks removed from surrendering 162 rushing yards to the Browns.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s obvious that the Falcons will have to keep up with the Packers in a shootout to win this game. Matt Ryan is coming off a strong outing, and he’ll have Roddy White back to complement Julio Jones, but it’ll be difficult for him to score consistently.

The Packers have made major improvements to this side of the ball recently when they moved Clay Matthews to inside linebacker, allowing Julius Peppers and Nick Perry to join him on the field at the same time. Green Bay has put more pressure on the quarterback as a result, as it swarmed Tom Brady last week and forced him into rushing his throws. If the Packers could get to Brady, they’ll almost certainly put heat on Matt Ryan, who has inferior protection in front of him.

I also wouldn’t on Steven Jackson doing much. The decrepit running back showed signs of life for the first time as a Falcon last week, but the Packers have really shored up their rush defense recently, limiting three of their four opponents following the bye to 85 rushing yards or fewer.

RECAP: I really wish the Packers lost last week, just so I could take them for a big wager in this contest. Alas, that is not the case, though I do still like Green Bay for a couple of units. Rodgers is an automatic bet at home; he’s 8-4 against the spread as a favorite of 12-plus, so he’s definitely capable of covering a big number like this. Also, I was curious to see how teams fare as divisional underdogs following victories as home dogs. It turns out that they are just 121-186 against the spread in such situations since 1994 (3-4 this year), and just 10-26 ATS as dogs of 10-plus (0-10-1 since Week 11, 2009!)

MONDAY EVENING UPDATE: If you’re planning on betting the Packers, I’d recommend locking them in at -13. The late public rush will keep pushing this up, and I don’t think the sharps will take the Falcons. Maybe they will at +14, but I’m not even sure about that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprise that the spread went up to -13.5. It’s +14 on Bovada if you like the Falcons, but I’m taking the Packers, who are close to an auto bet at home. The sharps haven’t touched this game, and they usually like double-digit dogs.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

A strong amount of action on the host.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 81% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 24-13 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Packers are 25-12 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 55-32 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Opening Line: Packers -11.5.

Opening Total: 56.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Packers 41, Falcons 24
Packers -13 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 55.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 43, Falcons 37

Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games
Dallas�at�Chicago, Pittsburgh�at�Cincinnati, Indianapolis�at�Cleveland, Tampa Bay�at�Detroit, NY Giants�at�Tennessee, Baltimore�at�Miami, NY Jets�at�Minnesota, Carolina�at�New Orleans, St. Louis�at�Washington, Houston�at�Jacksonville

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)