NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2012): 6-7-1 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2012): 5-9-2 (-$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2012): 8-7-1 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2012): 8-8 (-$1,110)

NFL Picks (2012): 103-114-7 (-$2,780)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 17, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

Carolina Panthers (4-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-8)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Chargers -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Chargers -3.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Week 15 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 42 people remaining. Six lost on the Steelers, while one dropped out because of the Buccaneers.

Picking Contest: We’re also running an NFL Picking Contest. It’s free entry, and the winner gets $75 each month.

Win Free Money! My friend Tom Harkins sent me an e-mail about a promotion: “I’m rumning a givaway from my site. People who ‘friend’ my Facebook page (FantasySportsTrophies.com) are entered into a drawling for $500. If they follow my Twitter feed (@FantasySportsTr), they’re entered for ANOTHER $500 give away. Winners will be posted/Tweeted on Super Bowl Sunday.”

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s too little, too late for the Panthers in terms of the 2012 season, but what they’ve done recently has to give Cam Newton confidence for 2013 and beyond. Newton has been great the past few weeks. Since losing to the Buccaneers in overtime, Newton has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions, and rushed for three more scores. He’s also maintained a YPA of 9.2, which is pretty awesome.

The Chargers have a pretty mediocre pass defense, so Newton should be able to continue passing effectively. Newton won’t feel much pressure in the pocket either, given that San Diego has a bottom-10 pass rush.

Of course, if the Chargers do apply pressure on Newton, he’ll just be able to scramble out of the pocket and pick up a big gain. San Diego hasn’t been very good against the run lately – yielding 4.4 YPC to its previous four opponents – so DeAngelo Williams may act as a potent dual threat alongside Newton for the second week in a row.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I bet Philip Rivers wishes he had Newton’s scrambling ability right about now. His banged-up offensive line is in shambles – he has taken a ridiculous 15 sacks in the past four weeks – so he barely has any chance to find his receivers. That’s the main reason why San Diego’s offense has barely been functional. Rivers is one of the least-mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, so he doesn’t have much of a chance if defenders are breathing down his neck.

Rivers figures to be pressured often once again in this contest, as the Panthers are tied for the 15th-most sacks in the NFL (30). Charles Jonson and Greg Hardy are a solid pass-rushing duo, so they’ll have no problem beating San Diego’s pathetic tackles. Rivers will have to force the issue into a receiving corps that features only one player who can get open. That would be Danario Alexander, who has been spectacular over the past month.

The Chargers haven’t been able to neutralize opposing pass rushes because they can’t run the ball. Ryan Mathews neither has the mental running skills nor the blocking to do any damage on the ground. The Panthers are 25th against the run (4.6 YPC), but Mathews probably won’t be able to take advantage of that.

RECAP: I don’t really have a feel for this matchup. Both teams find ways to lose close games, so maybe there will be a tie, or something. I don’t know.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t want to bet on either team in this situation.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

A good lean on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 66% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Chargers are 9-3 ATS at home the week after playing on the East Coast since 2004.

Philip Rivers is 24-13 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Chargers are 2-9 ATS in non-conference games since 2010.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Chargers 24
Panthers +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 31, Chargers 7

Seattle Seahawks (8-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-8)
Line: Seahawks by 5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Seahawks -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Seahawks -4.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 4:05 ET
At Toronto, Canada
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 15 has been posted – Emmitt finally meets the mastermind behind Bountygate II.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’d actually rather talk about the Seahawks’ defense. What an unbelievable performance this past Sunday. Yeah, it was just John Skelton and Ryan Lindley, but 58-0 is damn impressive, I don’t care who the quarterback is. Richard Sherman was amazing. He held Larry Fitzgerald to just one catch for two yards. He’s the best cornerback in football right now.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has just one downfield option, so Sherman will obviously be blanketing him. With Stevie Johnson a non-factor, Fitzpatrick will have to turn to Scott Chandler and his lesser wideouts – except that Chandler will be smothered by one of the league’s top defenses against tight ends.

The Bills will at least be able to run the ball. Forget last week because Chris Wells was hobbling around; the Seahawks have surrendered an average of 131.3 rushing yards to their previous six opponents. With that in mind, containing C.J. Spiller will be quite the challenge. Oh, and yeah, Chan Gailey will actually have to use Spiller this week because Fred Jackson is out. It’s amazing that it takes an injury for a head coach to utilize his best player.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While Spiller figures to pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground, Marshawn Lynch will find things much more difficult. The Bills are 27th against the run overall, but they’ve limited their four previous opponents to just 2.8 yards per carry, which would be even better than Tampa’s No. 1 rush defense average of 3.3.

The Bills’ defense actually been excellent all around since their bye. A big part of that is Mario Williams, who labored through a wrist injury for the first half of the season. Buffalo has collected 12 sacks the past four games, though it’ll be difficult to maintain that weekly average with Russell Wilson scrambling so effectively.

Wilson will find it hard to move the chains aerially, as Buffalo has also been dynamic in terms of pass defense, surrendering 5.5 YPA in the past four weeks. As a reference, the Steelers are No. 1 in that department this season, and their YPA is 5.8.

RECAP: This is a tough spot for the Seahawks. They just blew out a divisional opponent and now have to play an unfamiliar Buffalo foe before taking on the 49ers. That, as well as the line value – this spread was Seattle -3 a week ago – is why I’m taking the “home” underdog for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’d probably go three units on the Bills if I were convinced that this was a real road game for the Seahawks.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Seahawks may have trouble getting up for the Bills because they have the 49ers and Rams after this.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Everyone’s impressed by 58-0.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 70% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Seahawks 17, Bills 16
Bills +5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 50, Bills 17

Detroit Lions (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (4-9)
Line: Lions by 6. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Lions -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Lions -4.5.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

Jerks of the Week for Dec. 10, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are those I saw at a recent wedding.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Wow. I mean, wow. Words can’t describe how pathetic that showing was by the Cardinals’ offense. I make fun of Derek Anderson for being drunk and forcing other quarterbacks drink out of his “magic” flask, but I seriously think that John Skelton showed up to Sunday’s game intoxicated. If there were police on the field, he would have been pulled over.

It was recently announced that Kevin Kolb would be out for the year, so whom will Ken Whisenhunt turn to? He can’t go back to Skelton because he’s a turnover machine, but Ryan Lindley is just as inept. Brian Hoyer was signed, so maybe Whisenhunt can try him out next week.

The Cardinals at least have a chance to move the chains because Detroit’s defense is nowhere near as potent as Seattle’s. Having said that, Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and Cliff Avril should have their way with the worst offensive line in football. Poor Arizona has no running game to neutralize them.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have issues of their own, but they are injury-related. Brandon Pettigrew, Ryan Broyles, Nate Burleson and Titus Young are all out of the lineup, so Matthew Stafford doesn’t have anyone to throw to besides Calvin Johnson. That doesn’t sound like much of a problem because Megatron is so awesome, but it got Stafford into trouble Sunday night. He threw an interception in the red zone because his current No. 2 wideout, some guy named Kris Durham, ran the wrong route.

The Lions will have to run the ball effectively because of all the injuries to the receiving corps. They’ll have success doing so, as Joique Bell has impressed lately. Bell won’t have any issues finding running lanes against Arizona. It’s hard to believe the Cardinals once had a top-10 rush defense this season. They’ve gotten so progressively worse in that department that they’re now No. 31, ahead of only New Orleans.

RECAP: The Cardinals are in the best spot I’ve seen from any team all year. If I had any confidence in their quarterbacks, I’d bet seven units on them, and I wouldn’t think twice. Unfortunately, I’ll have to limit it to three because Skelton and Lindley are pure garbage.

If this were my Pick of the Month, I’d write a long essay about why the Cardinals are the right side. In short, teams that are embarrassed like they were at Seattle usually bounce back. These are professional football players who only get a brief time to earn big paychecks. This Arizona team may not be going anywhere, but the athletes on that team will be playing for pride and the next signing bonus.

The Cardinals are not as bad as their 58-0 defeat indicates. They’ve been competitive in some games; they nearly defeated the Falcons in Atlanta recently. They can play Detroit closely and perhaps even come away with a victory.

Speaking of the Lions, they do not deserve to be favored by six points. The Six and Six Rule obviously applies, and it’s worth noting that they have just one victory of more than four points all year. Plus, Detroit is coming off an emotional loss to the Packers and won’t take the Cardinals seriously.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t care how bad the Cardinals were Sunday; the Lions don’t deserve to be -6.5 on the road over anyone. Arizona’s the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Lions just lost their Super Bowl. The Cardinals were just humiliated.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Who wants to bet on the team on the losing end of 58-0?

Percentage of money on Detroit: 84% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Lions are 9-17 ATS against losing teams the previous 26 instances.

Cardinals are 22-8 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 17-7 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: Lions -6.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Cardinals 23
Cardinals +6 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 38, Lions 10

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)
Line: Cowboys by 1. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Roethlisberger).
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Pick.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Cowboys -2.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

I feel like Mario Migelini is versatile. He can talk about the Colts in addition to the Seahawks:

My apologies to sreilly4694 for giving him brain cancer. My bad.

What about other AFC teams? Migelini has them covered too:

I think Jake Wooten had a heart attack while responding to this.

So, can I give someone else a third malady? I got some help from fellow troll Jose Garcia:

It’s amazing how many people got so angry about my belief that the Cardinals could score one point and Garcia’s proclamation that Arizona would beat Seattle.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Both teams are worried about multiple injuries on both sides of the ball. The latest player to get hurt is Dez Bryant, who tore ligaments in his finger. CBS Dallas reported Monday that Bryant would be out for the year, but now it appears as though he’ll be on the field. Whether he’ll be effective or not is a completely different story.

Having at Bryant at less than 100 percent will be detrimental to Dallas’ offense, particularly in this game. The Steelers have the league’s No. 1 pass defense (5.75 YPA), which can only improve as Troy Polamalu gets healthier each week.

Thanks to Dallas’ pathetic offensive line, Pittsburgh’s front figures to dominate the trenches. The Steelers will put tons of pressure on Tony Romo and also shut down a rushing attack that was already weak. In order to move the chains, Romo will have to do what he does best – keep plays alive with his feet and find an open receiver downfield after dancing around in the pocket for what seems like 10 seconds.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Of course, the king of maneuvering around the pocket is Ben Roethlisberger. He’ll have to do plenty of that because left guard Willie Colon just suffered a knee injury that will keep him out for the rest of the regular season. Oh, and then there’s the matter of his line finding a way to block DeMarcus Ware.

Roethlisberger looked rusty against the Chargers, but that doesn’t explain why his receivers dropped key passes. Both Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown had deep balls sail through their hands. Had they caught those passes, it would have been a much different game. Wallace and Brown have an edge against a Dallas secondary ranked 24th against the pass (7.5 YPA), so it’s just a question of whether they’ll be able to hold on to the football or not.

If Wallace and Brown continue to screw him over, Big Ben can just hand the ball to Jonathan Dwyer, who should have a solid performance. Thanks to injuries to Jay Ratliff, Sean Lee and Bruce Carter, the Cowboys have surrendered an average of 140.3 rushing yards to their previous four opponents.

RECAP: I liked the Steelers a lot more when they were underdogs. Unfortunately, this line has shifted so much that Pittsburgh is now laying nearly a field goal.

The Steelers will have a different mentality as a favorite, but I’m still leaning toward taking them. The Cowboys always find some way to lose, so if they continue to do that, Pittsburgh will obviously cover because the spread is so low.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no feel for this game.

LINE CHANGE: Whoa, the Cowboys are -1 now. I don’t know what to make of this crazy line movement. I’m going to avoid this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

People are now betting on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 69% (58,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 18-11 ATS after a loss.

Tony Romo is 8-18 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Cowboys 16
Steelers +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 27, Steelers 24

Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) at Oakland Raiders (3-10)
Line: Raiders by 4.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -2.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Raiders -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Raiders -2.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

I can’t wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That’s what NFL.com gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat. My girlfriend is the new Aaron.

Check out how many random accounts confused normal people here. And no, I don’t own any of these accounts, save for Mario Migelini.

Here are some posts from the real Migelini:

His trolling is truly an inspiration. I hope I can be as good as him one day.

As for other trolls, Victor confused some people with his overtime prediction on the Denver-Oakland page:

I can’t believe so many people took a 37-16 overtime projection seriously.

As for the other trolls, they started this long discussion thread on the Packers-Lions page:

Someone suffered a stroke! That’s brain cancer, a heart attack and a stroke – all in one week! We’re pretty good.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: When a team has one of its top players go down, it completely derails its game plan. That’s what happened to the Chiefs this past Sunday. They were up 7-0 and missed a chip-shot field goal. So, they could have easily been up 10-0, but then Dwayne Bowe left the game with a season-ending injury. Kansas City, consequently, didn’t score a single point after that.

Brady Quinn couldn’t do anything without Bowe against the Browns, who have a pretty stout defense. The Raiders do not. There are so many problems with their “stop” unit. First off, they’re 30th against the run. They’ve surrendered an average of 151 rushing yards to their four previous opponents. Jamaal Charles, who broke an 80-yarder last week, figures to have a huge afternoon.

Oakland has major issues stopping the pass too. The team has a league-second-worst 17 sacks (Jaguars, 14), which puts tons of stress on an already-anemic secondary that can’t stop anyone. Quinn, feeding off short-yardage opportunities via Charles’ runs, will have success against the Raiders – even without his No. 1 receiver.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Kansas City’s offense isn’t much better than the Raiders’. The Chiefs are only slightly better in each department. They’re 24th against the rush, but it’s uncertain if Darren McFadden can take advantage of that. First of all, McFadden re-injured his ankle Thursday. He’s expected to play, but who knows how long he’ll last before getting hurt again. And second, he just doesn’t have the same burst he maintained in the past. Take away a 36-yard run last week that was the product of a great seal block, and McFadden gained just 16 yards on 10 carries against Denver.

Holding Carson Palmer to long-distance situations will be vital for the Chiefs because their secondary had issues containing Brandon Weeden and his receivers. If Palmer is constantly facing obvious passing downs, he’ll get a dose of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston; the latter won’t have any issues getting around inept right tackle Khalif Barnes.

The Chiefs will have to take advantage of Palmer’s turnovers as well. They’re tied for last with the Eagles and Colts in takeaways, but Palmer may make things easier for them. In the nine games since his bye, Palmer has thrown an interception in every single contest, totaling 12 picks and five lost fumbles in that span.

RECAP: There are plenty of reasons to like the Chiefs. The Raiders have sucked at home and as favorites in recent years. They’re also coming off an emotional loss to the Broncos. Kansas City, meanwhile, is in the favorable position of playing on the road following an away loss, which is a situation that covers at a high rate.

I’d make this a four- or a five-unit play, but I can’t back Quinn for more than three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still really like the Chiefs, and I’m hoping this goes up to +3.5 by kickoff.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Raiders actually tried for once against the Broncos, so it’ll be difficult for them to bounce back.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

A good lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 68% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Road Team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings (Raiders 8 of the last 11 meetings).

Raiders are 5-19 ATS in their final home game since 1985.

Raiders are 5-27 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Raiders are 4-18 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Raiders -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Raiders 19
Chiefs +4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 15, Chiefs 0

San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) at New England Patriots (10-3)
Line: Patriots by 4.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Patriots -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Patriots -4.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

For instance, the following exchange took place during the week.

Rob Gronkowski: Thank God we don’t have to play in San Francisco this year. I’ve never been there, but I hear there are a lot of gays. How am I supposed to bang hot porn artists if there are gay dudes running around everywhere?

Aaron Hernandez: No idea. But speaking of gay…

Tom Brady: Hey guys, you won’t believe it, but I just got like the best mani-pedi ever for $20. I can give you the store name if you want.

Gisele Bundchen: Tom look tres, tres chic, eh?

Rob Gronkowski: Chic? What the f*** is that? And Tom, how would I bang hot porn stars with a mani-pedi? They’d think I was a fag.

Aaron Hernandez: Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Tom Brady: Gay!? I’m not gay! I swear it!

Gisele Bundchen: Zey just jealoos, Tom. Ezz difficult no look tres chic like you after appointmoont vis Georgio.

Tom Brady: Yeah, these guys are jealous! How dare they say I’m not gay? I’m the not-gayest person alive!

Aaron Hernandez: Me thinks the guy looking like a lady doth protest too much.

Rob Gronkowski: Doth? What the f*** is doth? Don’t tell me you’re turning queer on me too, Aaron!

Tom Brady: If anyone is gay in this group right now, it’s definitely Aaron. I’m the last person who’s gay!

Aaron Hernandez: Ugh, doth is… never mind. And Tom, I think you’re overcompensating just a tad.

Tom Brady: Overcompensating!? You’re overcompensating! How can I be gay when I have a hot wife like Gisele!?

Gisele Bundchen: Haha Roob sleep vis porno star and zis Aaron maybe sleep vis goat I sink. Zey no look tres chick so zey say you like penoos in anoos.

Tom Brady: Yeah… yeah! You guys are just jealous that I have such great haircuts and a hot wife!

Aaron Hernandez: Right. We are so envious about your haircuts.

Rob Gronkowski: Envious? What the f*** is envious? Now I’m starting to think you’re gay with your fancy-shmancy big words, Aaron. Why don’t you go play for the 49ers?

Aaron Hernandez: It’s… ugh… you know what? Never mind. Just go sleep with your porn stars.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: When the Patriots are clicking like this offensively, it makes you wonder if anything can stop them. Tom Brady is on fire and has tons of talented weapons at his disposal, and what makes him extra lethal right now is his potent running game. For the first time since the days of Corey Dillon, teams have to respect the New England ground attack.

The 49ers have one of the league’s top defenses though, so maybe they have a shot at containing the Patriots. They’re second against the run, as their previous four opponents have gained just 2.88 yards per carry against them. They’re also No. 2 versus the pass (5.84 YPA) and can rush the passer; they’ve collected 15 sacks the past four weeks, as Aldon Smith is chasing Michael Strahan’s single-season record. The one way to slow Brady down is to hit him consistently, and the 49ers are fully capable of that…

…Or are they? The Texans actually have more sacks on the season than San Francisco, yet they were able to pin Brady to the ground just once behind the line of scrimmage. Houston was also top 10 against the run and the pass, yet New England tallied 400-plus net yards Monday night.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The one thing Bill Belichick does best defensively is take away one aspect of the opposing offense. He helped his team limit Arian Foster to just 46 yards on 15 carries, which was a very impressive feat.

Frank Gore has averaged 4.4 yards per carry or better in all but three games this year. He’s having a phenomenal 2012 campaign. Belichick may be focusing on slowing Gore down, or more specifically, the read option that Gore benefits from. Gore is extra lethal in this type of offense because Colin Kaepernick is such a threat as a scrambler. Just ask the Dolphins and my wallet after that ridiculous 50-yard run to cover the spread.

If Belichick is successful in limiting that aspect of San Francisco’s offense, Kaepernick will have to win the game by moving the chains aerially against the Patriots. Doing so is more difficult now with Aqib Talib on the field, but the secondary as a whole is still a liability. Kaepernick has a chance to do it, but remember that Matt Schaub had difficulty doing everything himself.

RECAP: This spread was Patriots -3 prior to last weekend. Now it’s -5.5. There is absolutely no spread value with New England, which is why I’m keeping this selection at one unit. Teams coming off Monday night blowout victories often cover the following week because they have so much momentum. The 49ers, meanwhile, have a more important game next week at Seattle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ll move this up to two units if I can get -4.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Slight lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 63% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

MNF Magic: Teams coming off wins of 17+ on MNF are 41-21 ATS the following week.

Patriots are 28-18 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 143-47 as a starter (111-75 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, 49ers 16
Patriots -4.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 41, Patriots 34

New York Jets (5-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-9)
Line: Titans by 2. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Titans -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Titans -1.
Monday, Dec. 17, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to this stupid Tennessee place where the Titans will be playing the Jets. Guys, I want to know one thing: Why isn’t Tim Tebow playing? When he signed with the Jets, I bought a Tebow jersey and a Tebow poster, which is now hanging above my bed next to my poster of Bryce Brown.

Emmitt: Corey, I think you a lil-bit too oldness to have poster of player in your bedrooms. I have a poster of old player like Walter Payton Manning and Gale Sayings when I was a lil’ kid, but you a growned man.

Reilly: How dare you, Emmitt? I love my posters of Tim Tebow and Bryce Brown, and no one can take them away from me!

Tollefson: Kevin, it is a little gay that you have posters of players in your bedroom. Let me help you out. I have plenty of posters of naked women that I can give to you. I’ve named them all too. There’s Tanya, who is shown pleasuring a man. And then there’s Suzanne, who is cooking breakfast. And then there’s Laura, who is dusting the bookshelves. And then there’s Mona, who is baking a cake while vacuuming the living room.

Reilly: That’s stupid, Tolly. Why would I want pictures of naked women when I can own posters of Tebow and Bryce Brown? Pictures of naked women are stupid!

Millen: I couldn’t agree more with you, Kevin. Wouldn’t it be incredible if instead of having posters of Tebow and Bryce Brown playing football, we could have posters of them sticking kielbasas in each other’s backside? That would be fantastic. I asked Roger Goodell if he would consider coming out with calendars of NFL players and their kielbasas, and he gave me a nasty look. I then proposed to be the photographer, but he just shooed me away. I don’t understand why he dismissed me because he’s sitting on a goldmine.

Griese: Goldmine? Well, back in my day, people went west and dug for gold in goldmines. Weh?

Reilly: Quiet, old man. But Millen, you’re disgusting. No one wants to see that.

Millen: Goldmine, Kevin. Goldmine. Come back to me when you realize what a great opportunity this is. You can be the first investor.

Davis: I have some better investments for you, Kevin. How about Facebook stock? Currently trading at $27.50 a share. How about Apple stock? That’s at $539 a share. What about Google stock? That can be bought for nearly $700. And who could forget about Kraft? That’s at $45.70. And then there’s…

Reilly: Shut up, idiot! You’re reading off my stock tip e-mail that I sent you yesterday! And screw all of you! I’m going to keep my posters up, and no one will be able to take them down! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: What an exciting Monday night game. No, I’m not being facetious. Watching Mark Sanchez continuously screw up and Rob Ryan look dumber by the second on the sidelines is a treat. I can’t wait to watch this epic matchup.

Tennessee’s defense may seem bad enough to throw a wrench into the equation, but it has improved lately. The pass rush has been very active, registering 11 sacks in the past three weeks. Left end Derrick Morgan has been great across from Kamerion Wimbley, which spells trouble for Sanchez because right tackle Austin Howard is a human turnstile. Even when Sanchez has time in the pocket, he won’t be able to find any open receivers because they can’t get separation. And no, Braylon Edwards is not going to help.

The Jets will hope they can run the ball as well as they did against the Jaguars, but Tennessee’s run defense has been much better lately, surrendering 3.87 yards per carry to the opposition.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of running the ball, that’s something the Titans absolutely cannot do right now. The Titans’ banged-up line is missing three starters, which would explain why Chris Johnson has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over three weeks – and this includes a matchup against the Jaguars, whom New York just pounded on the ground.

Jake Locker is doing most of the work in terms of rushing the ball. The Titans will need more of that this week because the Jets have the league’s No. 4 pass defense (6.3 YPA). Kenny Britt exploded this past Sunday against the Colts, but he’ll have a tough time going against Antonio Cromartie.

The key for Locker is to avoid turnovers. He has a ridiculous nine giveaways in the past three weeks, including a pick-six that he telegraphed at Indianapolis. The Jets are 13th in takeaways, so things could get messy for the second-year quarterback.

RECAP: I don’t have a strong feel for this game. I’d lean toward the Jets because the Titans always find some way to lose at the end. That would explain why Mike Munchak is 2-7 against the spread as a favorite.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, what a disastrous Sunday. I can’t possibly bet on this game or even offer up good advice. The sharps appear to be on the Jets though, as they’ve gone from -2 to +1 despite equal action.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
The Titans could be a bit flat after that loss to the Colts, but being on Monday Night Football could pump them up.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 58% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Mike Munchak is 2-7 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Titans -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Jets 16, Titans 13
Jets +2 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 14, Jets 10

Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games
Bengals at Eagles, Giants at Falcons, Broncos at Ravens, Redskins at Browns, Buccaneers at Saints, Vikings at Rams, Packers at Bears, Colts at Texans, Jaguars at Dolphins

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

~~Teaser: Browns +??, Cowboys +8 (2 Units)~~ (removing this because the Browns and Cowboys are favored)

Moneyline Underdog: Buccaneers +175 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Jaguars +270 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Bills +190 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Cardinals +230 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$115

NFL Picks - Oct. 30

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 30

NFL Power Rankings - Oct. 28

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 4-3 (+$855)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 2-0 (+$900)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 8, 2024): 10-6 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 8, 2024): +$455

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 65-65-5, 50.0% (-$2,315)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 15-22, 40.5% (-$1,485)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 13-11, 54.2% (+$300)
2024 Season Over-Under: 63-59-1, 51.6% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$275

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,486-3,217-200, 52.0% (+$19,355)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,122-1,007-56 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 566-496-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,922-2,893-75 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-3	Bears: 3-4	Bucs: 5-3	49ers: 6-2
Eagles: 3-4	Lions: 6-1	Falcons: 3-5	Cardinals: 6-2
Giants: 2-5	Packers: 4-3	Panthers: 4-4	Rams: 3-4
Redskins: 2-5	Vikings: 3-4	Saints: 4-4	Seahawks: 5-2

Bills: 3-5	Bengals: 2-6	Colts: 5-3	Broncos: 6-2
Dolphins: 3-4	Browns: 2-6	Jaguars: 2-5	Chargers: 3-3
Jets: 4-4	Ravens: 4-3	Texans: 3-5	Chiefs: 2-4
Patriots: 5-2	Steelers: 2-6	Titans: 4-3	Raiders: 4-4

Divisional: 13-18 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 12-11 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 23-16 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 15-23 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 24-36 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 10-5 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 7-13 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 3-5 (2011-23: 33-37)