NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)

NFL Picks (2012): 54-63-3 (-$800)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 29, 4:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games

Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
Line: Chiefs by 1. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Chiefs -2.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Chiefs -2.
Sunday, Oct. 28, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Raiders.

Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 22, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are Jerks with Awesome Girl Who Loves Football.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs have announced that Brady Quinn will be the starter going forward. That means for weeks to come, he’ll be able to employ his dink-and-dunk strategy or take an occasional shot downfield that sails out of bounds. If I were a Kansas City fan, my palms would be sweating in anticipation.

The Raiders haven’t been able to stop any quarterback (except a roofied, drunken Chad Henne) because they’ve been missing their two starting cornerbacks. Both are out again, but I can’t give Quinn any sort of advantage, given that he went 22-of-38 for 180 yards (a sterling 4.7 YPA) and two interceptions against the Aqib Talib-less Buccaneers in Week 6.

Oakland has done a fantastic job versus the run since the bye, limiting the opposition to just 2.2 yards per carry. Of course, it did this against a declining Michael Turner and backup Rashad Jennings, but the Raiders will be able to stack the line of scrimmage in an effort to stop Jamaal Charles. They don’t have to respect Quinn’s downfield attempts whatsoever.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Chiefs have disappointed defensively. After shutting down undefeated Aaron Rodgers last year, their stout stop unit was supposed to carry their average offense this season, but that hasn’t happened. They’ve been terrible against both the run (26th; 4.8 YPA) and the pass (31st; 8.9 YPA). The only thing they do well is rush the passer with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. The latter has a matchup of a lifetime against beleaguered right tackle Willie Smith.

The Chiefs might be able to disrupt Oakland’s aerial attack if they can pressure Carson Palmer relentlessly. Brandon Flowers is still a great corner, so he should be able to take one of Palmer’s receivers away. The problem though is that safety Eric Berry has been such a liability in coverage. Coming off an ACL tear, Berry is nowhere near the player he was at the end of his rookie campaign.

Two other first-rounders are primarily responsible for the team’s weekend against the run. Dontari Poe hasn’t been very good thus far, while Glenn Dorsey has been out of the lineup with a calf injury. There’s a good chance Dorsey will be back, which can only help against Darren McFadden. Of course, if you’ve been watching McFadden, you know that he’s no longer much of a threat. Failing to do anything against the Falcons’ No. 31 ground defense, McFadden isn’t guaranteed to break out of his slump just because he’s battling the Chiefs. He’s lost some of his burst, which is troubling.

RECAP: I really like the Raiders for the following reasons:

1. The Chiefs have a battle against the Chargers coming up in four days. Teams have done horrifically prior to Thursday night games this year, especially when favored.

2. The aforementioned game versus San Diego also comes into play because the Chiefs are a divisonal home favorite that will be a divisional underdog the following week. This is a great fade situation.

3. The Chiefs have been favored every single year against the Raiders at home dating back to 2003. Do you know how many times they’ve covered in those contests? Zero. That’s right, Kansas City, as a host, is 0-8-1 against the spread versus Oakland the past nine years.

4. Something I used against the Raiders last week was the Six and Six system, which said to bet against teams favored by six or more destined to finish with six or fewer wins. That system’s cousin is the Two and One trend, a situation in which you fade teams that will finish with two or fewer victories when they’re favored (by one or more points, obviously). Going against that is 15-2 against the spread the past 10 years. Kansas City is awful and very easily could go 2-14 or 1-15.

5. Brady Quinn.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m happy the Chiefs have remained favorites. I still love the Raiders.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Chiefs have to take on the Chargers in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Why would anyone want to bet on the Chiefs?

Percentage of money on Oakland: 66% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Road Team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings (Raiders 7 of the last 10 meetings).

New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.

Raiders are 15-26 ATS in October since 2001.

Chiefs are 16-27 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Raiders 23, Chiefs 12
Raiders +1 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 26, Chiefs 16

New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
Line: Giants by 2.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Cowboys -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Pick.
Sunday, Oct. 28, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

Safety or not, I’m surprised the Seahawks even lost to the 49ers because they had the 12th Man supporting them:

Meanwhile, someone named Joel Burt brings up a great point:

Here’s a thread I started in the Raiders-Jaguars page that received a ton of responses:

With the holidays coming up, I hope someone buys Kristian Brandenburg Bach something to clean the sand out of his vag because that’s clearly a problem for him right now.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Just when the Cowboys were getting healthy defensively, they suffered a huge blow. Stud inside linebacker Sean Lee is out for the season with a toe injury. Lee is a great, all-around player, but he’ll be missed most in run support. The Cowboys, who ninth versus the run, will see that ranking fall substantially.

Ahmad Bradshaw will have another quality performance, once again making life easier for Eli Manning. Bradshaw couldn’t find any running room in the season-opening loss against Dallas, which is a big reason why Manning had one of his worst performances of the season (21-of-32, 213 yards, 1 TD). The other reason is that the Cowboy corners smothered the New York receivers. One of the corners, Brandon Carr, has struggled since, so it’s fair to wonder if his Dallas debut was a bit of a fluke. Then again, Hakeem Nicks is still hobbled and can’t get any separation, so it’ll be up to Victor Cruz to make things happen instead of dropping key balls like he did last time against the Cowboys.

The key for the Giants is pass protection. The offensive line did a very poor job of this back on Sept. 5, but even though Jay Ratliff is in the lineup on the other side of the ball, there’s hope for New York. The unit is playing much better right now, as right tackle Sean Locklear has been a massive upgrade over the decrepit David Diehl. Locklear will do a much better job against Anthony Spencer, who’s playing very well right now.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Giants’ issues in their back seven are well-publicized. They rank 30th against the pass, surrendering a terrible YPA of 8.5 to opposing quarterbacks. Safety Kenny Phillips is expected to be out again, which means Stevie Brown will continue to get torched along with the struggling Corey Webster. The linebackers are even worse; Chase Blackburn is awful, while Michael Boley doesn’t look anywhere close to being completely healthy.

The Cowboys have a huge edge on this side of the ball – at least on paper. Tony Romo has the weapons to shred the Giants, assuming Dez Bryant is OK. Bryant hobbled through last week’s game with a groin injury, but was in position to catch the game-winning touchdown, but he dropped it…

…And that brings me to why I said “on paper.” The Cowboys are a great team if you just look at the names. But they always find some way to kill themselves. They’ll drop key passes, commit dumb penalties or take forever to get plays in on time. They’re a complete mess, and they could very easily spontaneously combust against the Giants, just as they did when they battled the Seahawks, Bears and Ravens.

RECAP: But I don’t think they’ll screw up as much as usual in this contest. In fact, I like the Cowboys in the role of a home underdog. Romo can’t choke in the clutch if no one believes he can succeed, right? The Giants, who thrive in the underdog role themselves, clearly don’t have the us-against-the-world element on their side in this contest. Just check out this link that Awesome Girl Who Loves Football sent me where Martellus Bennett takes a shot at Romo. That’s some serious bulletin-board material.

Four other reasons I like Dallas:

1. This line movement is crazy. The Giants opened as 1.5-point underdogs and I liked them then, but they’re now two-point favorites. Dallas was -2 a week ago. Nothing drastic happened last week, so does Lee’s injury warrant a four-point swing? I don’t think so. I love the line value we’re getting with the Cowboys.

2. The spread is moving so much because everyone and their evil stepmother is betting on the Giants. Nearly 90 percent of the betting action is on the visitor. It’s not often that Americans are not actually betting on “America’s Team.”

3. The Cowboys dominated the final three quarters of the opener. I theorized that they were able to do this because they spent their entire offseason trying to find a way to beat the Giants, since that was their greatest hurdle to winning the NFC East. If I’m right, they should still be able to employ that winning game plan.

4. If you expect Tom Coughlin to fire up his troops in a revenge situation, well, you might be disappointed. For whatever reason, Coughlin is just 2-5 against the spread in same-season revenge opportunities with the Giants.

FINAL THOUGHTS: More people are betting the Giants than any other team this week, so you have to be more confident if you’re taking the Cowboys. I’m still on them for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Giants will be pissed off that they’re underdogs again. They’ll also want revenge for that Week 1 loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

No surprise that everyone is betting on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 83% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Giants are 36-17 ATS on the road since 2006.

Tom Coughlin is 2-5 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24
Cowboys +2.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 29, Cowboys 24

New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Denver Broncos (3-3)
Line: Broncos by 6.5. Total: 54.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Broncos -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Broncos -4.
Sunday, Oct. 28, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

I can’t wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That’s what NFL.com gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat. My girlfriend is the new Aaron. The real Migelini has joined us. He posted the following in the Seahawks-49ers page:

It’s a shame that no one responded. The problem is that NFL.com sorts these posts by likes, so no one liked what Migelini had to say. So, if you’re trolling like I am, make sure you like the posts you’re commenting in. For instance, people would’ve commented on Pikkel Koslov’s post if they saw it:

Here’s someone who responded to the real Migelini:

DENVER OFFENSE: It’s amazing how woeful New Orleans’ defense is. The unit just surrendered 420 passing yards to Josh Freeman. It ranks last against aerial attacks (8.9 YPA), thanks in part to injuries in the back seven and absolutely no pass rush. Will Smith has done nothing this year outside of his two-sack performance against San Diego’s beleaguered offensive line.

How is Peyton Manning not going to have his way with this decrepit defense? If Freeman can torch them relentlessly, Manning should have the game of his life. The only way the Broncos don’t score in the 30s is if they shoot themselves in the foot with mistakes, which is something they’ve done quite often this year – with Demaryius Thomas and Willis McGahee being the main culprits.

The Broncos won’t have to throw a ton though, as they’ll be able to keep a balanced attack. McGahee will find running lanes against the Saints’ No. 29 ground defense.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees just went 27-of-37 for 377 yards, four touchdowns and an interception this past Sunday. He battled the pathetic, Aqib Talib-less Buccaneers’ pass defense, but he didn’t have Jimmy Graham at his disposal. Graham, who injured his ankle against the Chargers, is expected to suit up for this contest, as reports indicate that he was close to playing versus Tampa Bay.

Having Graham on the field will make Brees extra potent in this matchup. That’s important for the Saints, who will have to somehow game plan for Denver’s two devastating pass-rushers. Both Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller have been great this season, and they have great matchups against New Orleans’ beleaguered tackles. Keeping Brees upright is obviously key. The Broncos’ secondary has performed well at times this season, but except for Champ Bailey, they’re no match for Brees and all of his weapons.

The Saints don’t run the ball often, but they’ll be able to do so effectively when they choose to hand it off to Pierre Thomas. The Broncos surrendered 253 rushing yards to the Patriots back in Week 5.

RECAP: I like the fact that the Broncos are off a bye. They’ve undoubtedly come up with a great game plan against the Saints. They should be able to win, but covering could be a different story. Drew Brees, who is 8-4 against the spread as an underdog of more than a field goal, is way too good to be getting this many points. Like Matthew Stafford, he could easily get a cheap backdoor cover in the final minutes to beat the number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

The public is pounding the underdog.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 69% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Drew Brees is 31-20 ATS as a dog.

Peyton Manning is 11-6 ATS on Sunday Night Football since 2004.

Broncos are 16-6 ATS off a bye week since 1989.

Broncos are 12-34 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Broncos are 3-16 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Broncos are 5-15 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 20 instances.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.

Opening Total: 54.5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Broncos 34, Saints 31
Saints +6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
over 54.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 34, Saints 14

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 38.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): 49ers -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): 49ers -6.
Monday, Oct. 29, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Arizona, where the 49ers take on the Cardinals. Guys, I have a beef with Jim Harbaugh. I laid eight points with San Francisco last Thursday night. I was so happy when they got a safety at the very end, but then Harbaugh just took it off the board. Did he bet against his own team like Pete Rose? I definitely think so. I’m going down on the field to demand my money back from him!

Emmitt: Kasey, Harbone doned the right thing. He risk a fumbled on the knee down, but there less of a chance fumbled could happen then the Seadog scorin’ twice in 22 minutes and no timeouts.

Reilly: Emmitt, I usually agree with you, but you’re being stupid right now. What if they did fumble? And the Seahawks had 22 seconds; not 22 minutes. There was no way they were scoring. Harbaugh screwed me over on purpose. He knew I bet on his team, and he wanted me to lose. I’m going down to the field right now and giving him a piece of my mind! You, random guy with black hair, take my place.

Steve Young: Well, this juxtaposition is certainly a quagmire. I have to say this is very quixotic ha ha haaaaa…

Emmitt: Steve Youngs, I confuse. Very confuse. I do not understand alphabet you just sayin’. First alphabet juxperson, probably a person with a jux. Then quacksomethin’ like a duck maybe. Then quick exotic, I do not understand how somethin’ exotic can be quick.

Steve Young: Emmitt, your puerile grammar in ineffable ha ha haaaaa…

Millen: Did you just say something about effing? Well, Mr. Young, sir, you appear to be 100-percent USDA Man to me. I have some kielbasas in my hotel room if you want to try them out.

Steve Young: Matt, I don’t mean to be impudent, but I view that proposal as mawkish ha ha haaaaa…

Bob Griese: Weh? Who are you? Is it halftime yet?

Steve Young: Well, this guy’s very torpid ha ha haaaaa…

Tollefson: Stop using big words, a**hole, no one can understand you. Hey guys look, Kevin Reilly’s on the field. He’s yelling at Harbaugh! Ha! Look at him go nuts! Hey guys, I’m going down to the field too. I just realized that I haven’t banged a single Cardinal cheerleader yet in my professional career as a broadcaster, which would be disastrous because they’re women, and women are only good for sex, cleaning and cooking.

Steve Young: Don, you’re a very obdurate individual ha ha haaaaa…

Davis: I have some words for you, Steve! How about neophyte, which means someone who is young or inexperienced. How about obfuscate, which is to render incomprehensible? And then there’s rancor, which is deep, bitter resentment. What about sanguine, which is optimistic, cheery? And who could forget scurrilous, which means vulgar or coarse? And then there’s…

Steve Young: Listen, neophyte, you just obfuscated that last sentence, and now I have rancor for you. I wouldn’t be sanguine about you keeping your job, as I imagine that Reilly will be very scurrilous when he hears that you just read down a list yet again.

Reilly: Yeah, I heard all of that from the field. F*** Charles Davis! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I love when there are “How is Team X going to do Y against Team Z?” elements in games because it usually means that you take Team X. There are two of these in this contest, and Arizona happens to be the “overmatched” Team X in both instances.

The first is simple: How are the Cardinals going to score against the 49ers? After all, John Skelton sucks and has one receiver to throw to, while San Francisco has this super awesome defense that can’t be penetrated. Expect they don’t. The media hasn’t talked about this one bit, but the 49ers haven’t been nearly as good defensively this year. They’ve struggled against the run recently, surrendering 4.5 YPC to their previous four opponents. They have just 11 sacks on the year, including only three in their past three games. And their secondary is highly questionable, with Carlos Rogers having a down year and Donte Whitner really struggling.

Still though, Skelton has a tendency to stare down his receivers, so the 49ers could come away with some turnovers. But as crazy as it sounds, LaRod Stephens-Howling should have success on the ground. Arizona just compiled 126 rushing yards on 26 carries against the Vikings, who are third against the run.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The second instance in the “How is Team X going to do Y against Team Z?” element pertains to the 49ers’ ground game. How are the Cardinals going to stop the run against San Francisco? This is a question that is more difficult to answer.

Arizona has been gashed relentlessly by opposing runners this month, coinciding with Darnell Dockett’s injury. Dockett normally plays on a Pro Bowl level, but he’s limited by a hamstring. He’s getting abused in run support, and I have no doubt that San Francisco’s smart coaching staff has recognized this. Frank Gore should have a monstrous Monday night performance.

Gore will open things up for Alex Smith, who tends to have his ups and downs. He was woeful in the first half Thursday, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he continued to play on a low level, given that he has some sort of a finger injury and that Arizona is eighth versus the pass (6.4 YPA).

RECAP: I could understand it if the 49ers were touchdown favorites at home against the Cardinals, but there’s no way in hell they should be favored by this much on the road. They’re not as good this year, while Arizona is not nearly as bad as the media makes it out to be. I’m taking the home underdog for a unit, and I may increase this play as we get closer to kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I liked the Cardinals for one unit at -6.5. I’ll take them for two now that the spread has jumped to -7. This line is way too high, as the 49ers just haven’t been as good defensively this season. Also, Alex Smith’s finger may still affect him, so I love the value we’re getting with the home dog.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

I’m surprised more people aren’t betting on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 67% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Noone.

49ers are 13-8 ATS against divisional opponents in the past 21 instances.

Cardinals are 17-6 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: 49ers 17, Cardinals 16
Cardinals +7 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 24, Cardinals 3

Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games
Buccaneers at Vikings, Panthers at Bears, Seahawks at Lions, Jaguars at Packers, Falcons at Eagles, Redskins at Steelers, Patriots at Rams, Colts at Titans, Chargers at Browns, Dolphins at Jets

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Patriots -1, Bears -1.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220

Moneyline Underdog: Colts +160 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$80

Moneyline Underdog: Redskins +175 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Cardinals +255 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Oct. 30

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 30

NFL Power Rankings - Oct. 28

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,486-3,217-200, 52.0% (+$19,355)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,122-1,007-56 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 566-496-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,922-2,893-75 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-3	Bears: 3-4	Bucs: 5-3	49ers: 6-2
Eagles: 3-4	Lions: 6-1	Falcons: 3-5	Cardinals: 6-2
Giants: 2-5	Packers: 4-3	Panthers: 4-4	Rams: 3-4
Redskins: 2-5	Vikings: 3-4	Saints: 4-4	Seahawks: 5-2

Bills: 3-5	Bengals: 2-6	Colts: 5-3	Broncos: 6-2
Dolphins: 3-4	Browns: 2-6	Jaguars: 2-5	Chargers: 3-3
Jets: 4-4	Ravens: 4-3	Texans: 3-5	Chiefs: 2-4
Patriots: 5-2	Steelers: 2-6	Titans: 4-3	Raiders: 4-4

Divisional: 13-18 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 12-11 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 23-16 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 15-23 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 24-36 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 10-5 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 7-13 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 3-5 (2011-23: 33-37)