NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)

NFL Picks (2012): 38-53-2 (-$2,890)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 15, 5:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

New England Patriots (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Patriots -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Patriots -5.
Sunday, Oct. 14, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates. WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. I’ll have an update on remaining entries once the site starts working properly.

Fantasy: We’ll be running FanDuel contests through the end of October. It’s going to be a $1 entry fee this week, but with a $1,000 prize pool. Go to the Fantasy Football Contest page for more details (link will be available later during the week).

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots seem unstoppable right now. They’ve scored 83 points the past two weeks. They converted a billion third downs against Denver. Who could possibly bet against Tom Brady and his improved rushing attack right now?

Well, there should be an asterisk next to that 83 because New England has beaten up on two ultra-crappy defenses. The Bills and Broncos can’t stop anyone. The Seahawks, of course, are a different animal. They have a terrific secondary that will put the clamps on Brady’s receivers, and they also dominate the line of scrimmage. The Patriots’ offensive output the past two weeks has made everyone forget how much of a liability the interior of the offensive line happens to be. Seattle has a huge advantage there.

Oh, and as for the Patriots’ new, awesome running backs, the Seahawks stop the rush as well as anyone except for the Dolphins. They’re second against ground attacks, limiting opposing runners to an even three yards per carry. They haven’t allowed more than 77 rushing yards to anyone this season.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Both scoring attacks figure to struggle in this matchup. Bill Belichick is a defensive mastermind who excels at taking away one aspect of an opposing offense. He’ll do his best to make sure that Marshawn Lynch is stymied. Of course, he doesn’t have to try very hard because his team is already fourth versus the rush (3.3 YPC).

If Lynch can’t do anything, the Seahawks will be punting often. Save for one throw, Russell Wilson was fairly decent against the Panthers, but his receivers could actually get open versus a Carolina secondary that was missing top corner Chris Gamble. The Patriots don’t exactly have a stalwart defensive backfield themselves, but they at least have their key players healthy. Seattle’s wideouts just don’t have the capability to get open against starting talent.

In addition to worrying about his receivers being covered, Wilson will have to avoid New England’s pass rush. Chandler Jones is the leading candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and he figures to have a slight edge over Russell Okung, who has already committed a ridiculous seven penalties this season. Meanwhile, right tackle Breno Giacomini is a sieve who has been exposed all year.

RECAP: I love the Seahawks for a few reasons:

1. Seattle has such an awesome homefield advantage that I just don’t see how any team – including the Patriots – can be favored by more than a field goal there when the team is good.

2. This is a statement game for the Seahawks. Everyone doubted them after their fluky win versus Green Bay and subsequent loss to St. Louis. This is their chance to prove that they’re for real.

3. Here’s an awesome trend in Seattle’s favor: Home dogs with a winning record coming off a victory as a road dog are 30-5 against the spread if they’re playing a team that just won as a home favorite. That may sound confusing, but it’s simple if you think about it this way – the constant underdog team is undervalued and that the opponent, coming off a victory, will underestimate them.

I’m taking the Seahawks for three units. This would be a bigger play if I weren’t scared half to death of betting against Brady.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

This is a statement game for Seattle.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Tom Brady is unstoppable. This seems like easy money for most people.

Percentage of money on New England: 81% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Patriots are 27-17 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 138-46 as a starter (108-72 ATS).

Seahawks are 11-5 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Patriots -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Patriots 20, Seahawks 19
Seahawks +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 24, Patriots 23

Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1)
Line: Cardinals by 5.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Cardinals -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Cardinals -5.5.
Sunday, Oct. 14, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 6 has been posted – Emmitt is finally able to arrest Roger Goodell. But is he the mastermind?

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s now or never for Mario Williams. The crown jewel of the 2012 offseason has been a bust thus far, but this is his chance to redeem himself. Arizona’s offensive line provides that opportunity because it’s unbelievably putrid; Kevin Kolb has been sacked 17 times in the past two games, which is just ridiculous.

Luckily, the Cardinals have had nine days to make adjustments. I imagine they’ll emphasize Kolb getting the ball out quickly. This will lead to a couple of successful drives, but it’s hard to maintain that style of attack because a penalty that places the team in a long-yardage situation pretty much means punting time.

It would really help the Cardinals if they had some sort of rushing attack to help Kolb, especially in this contest, given that the Bills have yielded an absurd 505 rushing yards in the past two weeks. However, Ryan Williams is out for the season and Chris Wells is on injured reserve, meaning it’ll be up to the likes of LaRod Stephens-Howling, William Powell and Alfonso Smith to exploit Buffalo’s inept stop unit.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Cardinals themselves struggled against the rush as well last Thursday night, as they had immense trouble stopping Steven Jackson when the Rams were running out the clock. The problem was that Darnell Dockett was playing on one leg. The stud defensive end should have sat out, but he was on the field and largely ineffective. All of this time off undoubtedly means that he’ll be close to 100 percent for this contest.

With that in mind, the Bills won’t run the ball nearly as effectively, especially with all of the injuries to their offensive line. Left tackle Cordy Glenn and right guard Kraig Urbik were both out at San Francisco. They missed practice Wednesday, which is not a good sign.

Having Glenn and Urbik available would be a huge boost for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who won’t have much time in the pocket with Dockett and Calais Campbell breathing down his neck. Fitzpatrick will need all the help he can get because Patrick Peterson will be draped all over his one and only reliable downfield target, Steve Johnson.

RECAP: There are several other reasons why I love the Bills:

1. This should be a very low-scoring game, which automatically makes me look toward the underdog.

2. Teams seldom get blown out three times in a row. Really, it almost never happens. Want the exact stat for that? Teams coming off consecutive losses of 21-plus are 33-16 against the spread in the past 10 years. The Bills are the laughing stock of the league right now, so they’ll be playing for pride.

3. There’s also a good number for teams that lose the spread by at least 24 points. Those squads are 54-25 against the number in non-divisional games as long as they’re not underdogs of more than a touchdown.

4. Visiting underdogs coming off a road loss is usually a bet-on situation, with the teams covering nearly two-thirds of the time.

This is going to be a three-unit selection for now. I’ll bump this up to four if some of Buffalo’s offensive linemen return to practice.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills have so many injuries that I considered dropping this to two units, but there are still a number of reasons to like Buffalo.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
Close to equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 61% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 8-2 ATS off consecutive losses in non-divisional road underdog games since 2002.

Opening Line: Cardinals -5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Cardinals 24, Bills 23
Bills +5.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 19, Cardinals 16

Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-3)
Line: Vikings by 1. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Redskins -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Redskins -2 (Griffin) or Vikings -3 (Cousins).

Sunday, Oct. 14, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: TBA.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 8, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are the Samsung Galaxy S III and Random Phone Pictures.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: There’s no spread on this game right now, and there won’t be for a couple of days because Robert Griffin’s status is completely in the air. Griffin, who suffered a concussion against the Falcons, was limited in practice Wednesday but said he felt fine. However, Mike Shanahan said that he won’t know if Griffin is cleared for contact until after Friday’s practice.

Griffin will have success against Minnesota if he plays. There are some holes in the secondary that he’ll be able to take advantage of with his exceptional downfield passing. The Redskins will also be able to move the chains on the ground. Yes, the Vikings are third versus the rush (3.04 YPC), but Washington runs the ball so well because teams are scared of Griffin’s dual-threat capabilities, so they often ignore Alfred Morris.

That obviously would all change if Kirk Cousins has to start instead. Minnesota would clamp down against the run, forcing Cousins to beat them. The Vikings would also accumulate several sacks. The Redskins don’t pass protect very well, but Griffin’s elusiveness masks that. Cousins would have no chance against Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and Brian Robison.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I’m sure you’ve all heard about how much of an abomination Washington’s secondary is by now. The Redskins have surrendered at least 299 passing yards to every single opponent they’ve faced. A major part of the problem is all of the injuries they’ve incurred in the secondary. Brandon Meriweather will be out yet again, while Cedric Griffin is iffy to suit up. Another issue is London Fletcher, who has finally shown signs of regression.

Of course, a huge problem for Washington is its lacking pass rush. Brian Orakpo is out for the year, leaving just Ryan Kerrigan to rattle the quarterback. Kerrigan is having a solid season, but Orakpo’s replacement, Rob Jackson, is predictably struggling. Christian Ponder, who is playing well, will have no pressure in his face, which will give him plenty of time to connect with Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph.

The one thing that Washington does well is stuff the run, as second-year defensive end Jarvis Jenkins has really stepped up in Adam Carriker’s absence. As a result, the Redskins have surrendered just 3.5 yards per carry the past three weeks. Having said that, Adrian Peterson is a huge step up from BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Doug Martin and Michael Turner, the three runners Washington has battled in that span.

RECAP: I obviously can’t post a concrete pick until there’s a spread listed. I’m tentatively taking Minnesota, but check back later in the week for an update.

LINE POSTED: Griffin is playing. The Redskins should be favored, so I’m going to take them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Two-thirds lean on the visiting favorite.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 69% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Vikings 17
Redskins +1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 38, Vikings 26

New York Giants (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-1)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): 49ers -4.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): 49ers -6.
Sunday, Oct. 14, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

Want to know why the Seahawks lost to the Rams two weeks ago? Mario Migelini has the answer:

Meanwhile, it was pretty obvious that Seattle would upset Carolina, given that the Seahawks were bound to sack Cam Newton 54, maybe 55 times:

Oh, and by the way, Russell Wilson is an MVP candidate:

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: My Giants’ pick previews feel more like injury reports than anything. The defensive players who missed Wednesday’s practice were Rocky Bernard, Chase Blackburn, Corey Webster and Kenny Phillips. Bernard is unknown to casual fans, but he’s the Giants’ top interior run-stuffer. Replacements Markus Kuhn and Marvin Austin struggled against Trent Richardson last week, and they’ll undoubtedly be even worse versus Frank Gore, Colin Kaepernick and San Francisco’s dominant run-blocking front.

Webster and Phillips being hurt is problematic for the secondary. Brandon Weeden couldn’t fully take advantage of this, but Alex Smith will have better luck. He’s playing very well under Jim Harbaugh’s tutelage. He just torched the Bills for 18-of-24 passing for 303 yards and three touchdowns. He had issues against the Giants in the NFC Championship, but New York wasn’t nearly as banged up as it was back then.

Smith also won’t have the same pass-protection issues either. Jason Pierre-Paul is playing well, but Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck have been non-factors this season. If Smith has time in the pocket to locate Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, New York’s hobbled secondary doesn’t stand a chance.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants also have injury-related issues on the other side of the ball. Hakeem Nicks has been out since Week 2, but reports indicate that it’s looking like he’ll be able to play. That’ll be a huge boost for Eli Manning, who watched Martellus Bennett suffer a knee ailment against the Browns. Bennett didn’t practice Wednesday, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be available.

It would still be foolish to doubt Manning though, even against San Francisco’s defense. The 49ers played well against him in the NFC Championship, but there are holes in the secondary. Safety Donte Whitner isn’t performing nearly as well as he did last year, so Manning could take advantage of that. His offensive line will need to give him time, however. Left tackle William Beatty has done a good job since entering the starting lineup in Week 3, but blocking Justin Smith and Aldon Smith will be a tough challenge.

New York trailed by a huge deficit last week, but still stuck with the running game, as Ahmad Bradshaw tallied 200 rushing yards. That won’t work so well this Sunday, as the 49ers are fifth against ground attacks (3.4 YPC).

RECAP: The Giants are my third-favorite play of the week (behind one of the teams below and the Bills) despite the one-star edge I gave to San Francisco in the “game” section. Here’s why:

1. The 49ers are coming off a perfect win. They won in a blowout, led after every quarter, edged the opponent out in turnover margin and dominated time of possession. Teams that do this have an awful track record in terms of covering the spread the following week.

2. Manning is 25-11 against the spread as an underdog. That’s not a surprising trend, given how well this Giant team plays when everyone is doubting them. Based on this line, it appears as though that’s the case yet again. They’ll be out for respect as a near-touchdown underdog.

3. The Giants are also awesome on the road. They’re 35-17 against the spread as visitors since 2006.

This is going to be a three-unit selection. I’m holding back a bit because of the 49ers’ desire to get revenge and the Giants’ injuries (I may increase it to four if a couple of players return to practice). However, it’s worth noting that San Francisco could have one eye on its upcoming Thursday tilt against the Seahawks. As listed below, favorites are 1-5 against the spread prior to Thursday night games this year.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still really like the Giants.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Revenge for the 49ers. Respect for the Giants, who are huge underdogs.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 60% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 1-5 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.

Giants are 35-17 ATS on the road since 2006.

Eli Manning is 25-11 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Jim Harbaugh is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ points.

Opening Line: 49ers -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Giants 27, 49ers 24
Giants +7 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 26, 49ers 3

Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Houston Texans (5-0)
Line: Texans by 3.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Texans -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Texans -4.5.
Sunday, Oct. 14, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

I can’t wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That’s what NFL.com gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat. My girlfriend is the new Aaron, while someone else has become another illiterate troller named Victor Valentino:

In this thread, Neil Barone, Mike Zaino and I make some fans extremely mad.

Oh, and here’s a surprise – the real Migelini is back! Too bad he didn’t respond to his “brather.”

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers? What’s wrong with the Packers’ offense? That’s all anyone’s asking right now. The offensive line isn’t protecting Rodgers, but that’s not really anything new. There might be a few answers. One is that he’s missing Greg Jennings and now Jermichael Finley. Neither practiced Wednesday. Another is that Joe Philbin is gone. But Rodgers is simply missing throws. He had Jordy Nelson wide open for a long touchdown in the first half of the Colts’ game, but completely missed him.

Rodgers has shouldered all of the blame, and I think he’ll bounce back. Battling Houston’s defense normally wouldn’t be what the doctor ordered, but the Texans currently have issues at linebacker. Brian Cushing is out, meaning Bradie James and Tim Dobbins will start in the middle of their defense. Rodgers should be able to expose that.

Of course, the offensive line will have to do its part and protect Rodgers. It has a tough challenge in terms of dealing with J.J. Watt, but Connor Barwin isn’t playing very well this season, making Houston’s defense less daunting than it should be. On the other hand, the Packers have no running game with Cedric Benson out, so the Texans won’t have to worry about anyone coming out of the backfield.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: B.J. Raji also missed practice Wednesday, which doesn’t bode well for Green Bay’s chances of stopping Arian Foster. The Packers are 16th against the run (4.2 YPC), but they had issues stopping Donald Brown after Raji left the game. The Colts don’t even rush the ball that well, so imagine what Foster will be able to do.

As always, Matt Schaub will use play-action fakes to disrupt an opposing defense so focused on his running backs. Andrew Luck just torched Green Bay’s inept secondary, so Schaub figures to enjoy similar success.

Something the Packers won’t have to worry about is a dangerous downfield threat. Andre Johnson is a great possession receiver, but there isn’t really anyone who can stretch the field. This should help Green Bay. The Packers also have to expose the right side of Schaub’s offensive line in third-and-long situations. Nick Perry and Erik Walden, who are rotating on the strong side, need to step up.

RECAP: This is my October NFL Pick of the Month. There are so many reasons why I love the Packers:

1. Everyone thinks the sky is falling in Green Bay. The team is 2-3, but they’re not nearly as bad as their record indicates. They were screwed over in Seattle and their game plan went down the drain when they lost three key players to injury at Indianapolis, and then there was that whole Chuckstrong buzz saw thing. The media is overreacting yet again. The Packers will be fine.

2. This is a must-win for the Packers though. They can’t afford to fall to 2-4 – not when there are two teams in their division with 4-1 records (and chances are the Vikings will be 5-1 if Robert Griffin is out). The Texans, meanwhile, don’t have much to play for. They’re way ahead of everyone in the AFC South. The only team even close to challenging them for homefield advantage is Baltimore, whom they play next week.

3. Aaron Rodgers as an underdog. He’s 9-5 against the spread when getting points. That bumps up to 4-1 ATS if the line is greater than three.

4. Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss. He’s 10-4 against the spread after suffering a defeat.

5. Aaron Rodgers on the road. He’s 18-9 against the spread as a visitor as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

6. Mike McCarthy bounces back well following a loss as a favorite, covering the spread all five times in the situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Packers.

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

This is almost a must-win for the Packers.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 61% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 18-9 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 10-4 ATS after a loss.

Aaron Rodgers is 9-5 ATS as an underdog.

Mike McCarthy is 5-0 ATS as an underdog following a loss as a favorite.

Opening Line: Texans -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Texans 27
Packers +3.5 (7 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 42, Texans 24

Denver Broncos (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-2)
Line: Pick. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Chargers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Chargers -3.

Monday, Oct. 15, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to San Diego, for an exciting game for first place in the NFC West! Tonight, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers clash in this greatmatchup. Guys, I have a confession to make. As you know my 53 favorite players are those on the Eagles, but my 54th-favorite player is Peyton Manning. Tell me, is Peyton done? All the media people say he is, but I can’t accept that it’s true. It would break my heart.

Emmitt: Keifer, I agree on you. Everybody say that Peyton have a noodle arm. But I like to eat noodle, so noodle arm is definitely good thing.

Reilly: This is true, Emmitt. Everyone thinks that a “noodle arm” has a negative connotation, but noodles are very tasty.

Griese: Noodles? There are noodles here? Where?

Reilly: Go back to sleep, Griese. What does everyone else think about Peyton? Will my 54th-favorite player have a good finish to the season?

Herm Edwards: No he won’t! No he won’t! No he won’t! No he won’t! No he won’t! Don’t count on it! Don’t bet on it! Don’t guess it! Don’t expect it! Don’t… uhh…

Reilly: Herm’s here? What the hell? You don’t work here anymore! Someone alert security!

Herm Edwards: It’s OK! It’s OK! It’s OK! It’s OK! It’s OK! It’s OK! Don’t worry! Don’t be concerned! Don’t sweat it! Don’t be bothered! Don’t be anxious! Don’t uhh…

Tollefson: It’s OK, Kevin. Millen said he had some kielbasa-related business to take care of, so he sent a replacement.

Herm Edwards: I’m here! Let’s discuss football! Let’s discuss it! Now, here’s the key to Peyton Manning! I have the key! The key is right here! Here’s the key! Want to know the key!? I can tell you the key! The key is… uhh…

Davis: I know what the key is. Everyone talks about Peyton Manning, but the defense has to be the main focus. What’s Elvis Dumervil going to do? Will Von Miller bring pressure? How about Derek Wolfe? Will the rookie out of Cincinnati step up? What about Champ Bailey? How about Tracy Porter? What about Rahim Moore? And then there’s Justin Bannan. And who could forget Joe…

Herm Edwards: You’re reading a list! You’re going down the list! You’re saying nothing but the names on the list! You’re giving no analysis! You’re giving no thoughts! You’re giving no perspective! You’re giving no opinion! You’re giving… uhh…

Reilly: Herm, I never thought I’d say this, but I completely agree with you. Charles Davis is an abomination, and as much as I hate your guts, I’d love to have you back if we could get rid of Davis. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DENVER OFFENSE: With all of the talk of Peyton Manning’s arm strength, it’s kind of ironic that his supporting cast is responsible for the team’s most recent defeat. Demaryius Thomas and Willis McGahee both fumbled the ball in the red zone, while the latter also dropped an easy pass on a 4th-and-1 near midfield, which was effectively a turnover.

The Broncos can’t afford such mistakes if they want to win this crucial divisional battle. Manning should be able to have success against a San Diego defense that couldn’t contain Drew Brees, who was missing Lance Moore and dealing with him Jimmy Graham hobbling around on one foot. Corner Antoine Cason and safety Atari Bigby aren’t playing well, so Manning will target them. It’ll be up to his receivers to get the job done.

McGahee could find some running room, which will help Manning against Corey Liuget and Melvin Ingram, who are doing a good job of pressuring the quarterback. The Chargers have surrendered 4.4 yards per carry the past three weeks. Now, if only McGahee could hang on to the football…

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Denver’s defense is a mess. If allowing 4.4 yards per attempt on the ground is considered bad for San Diego, what do you call the 253 rushing yards the Broncos permitted on 50 carries at New England? Ryan Mathews performed well in limited action this past Sunday night, which is bad news for the Broncos, who will have to somehow stop him when they couldn’t even contain Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden.

Denver will be so focused on putting the clamps on Mathews and San Diego’s other running backs that they’ll undoubtedly make things easier for Philip Rivers, who will expose the several holes the Broncos have in their secondary.

The Broncos’ one chance to put the clamps on the Chargers’ offense is to rattle Rivers. Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller potentially have a huge advantage against San Diego tackles Jared Gaither and Jeromey Clary. The latter isn’t very good, while the former is dealing with a groin injury that rendered him immobile at the end of the New Orleans loss. Norv Turner expects Gaither to play, but how healthy will his left tackle be?

RECAP: I’m taking the Broncos for a couple of units. Road underdogs following a road loss cover the spread two-thirds of the time. Oh, and Peyton Manning as an underdog on Monday night? I know it didn’t work against Atlanta, but that’s been a successful formula over the years. Besides, it wouldn’t totally surprise me to see something go wrong for the Chargers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Broncos are now favored. I previously selected them for two units, but I like the Chargers now that they’re home dogs. They’ll be playing for respect.

FINAL THOUGHTS PART 2: Ugh, now the Chargers are favored again. I’m dropping this to zero units for now. I’ll have another update Monday evening.

FINAL THOUGHTS PART 3: I’m not betting this game because the spread has changed way too many times. With a gun to my head, I’m taking the Chargers. I don’t understand why this line is a pick ’em. It implies the Broncos are three points better than San Diego, which I disagree with. They’re about even. The Chargers, who are being doubted, may play for respect.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The Broncos are a publicly backed underdog.

Percentage of money on Denver: 68% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Chargers have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.

Peyton Manning is 14-6 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Peyton Manning is 10-5 ATS on Monday Night Football.

Chargers are 17-25 ATS in Weeks 1-8 since 2007.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 24
Chargers PK (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 35, Chargers 24

Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games
Steelers at Titans, Cowboys at Ravens, Bengals at Browns, Colts at Jets, Lions at Eagles, Chiefs at Buccaneers, Raiders at Falcons, Rams at Dolphins

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Giants +250 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$125

Moneyline Underdog: Packers +170 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$85

NFL Picks - Nov. 23

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)