NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)

NFL Picks (2012): 24-38-2 (-$3,190)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 1, 5:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)
Line: Cardinals by 5. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Cardinals -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Cardinals -7.
Sunday, Sept. 30, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

For instance, the following conversation took place yesterday, just as Brady learned that he will be traveling to Buffalo…

Bill Belichick: Now, this is going to be a tough game. We all have to be on the same page. McDouche, do you have extra AA batteries in your bag?

Josh McDaniels: Of course, BB! This has been great coaching with y… what the hell is that?

Tom Brady: Like oh my gosh, I’m like sorry I’m like so late and stuff!

Josh McDaniels: You’re an hour late to our meeting. Why do you look like a woman this week?

Tom Brady: I’m like so sorry, I had to like do my nails and then like dry my hair and then like put on makeup and stuff.

Josh McDaniels: Yeah OK, but why are you a woman?

Bill Belichick: Because we’re going to Buffalo. He did this last year too. Remember when Willis McGahee said that all of the women in Buffalo are ugly? Well, Tom thinks this is his best chance to impress all of the men.

Tom Brady: Like oh my gosh, does this dress make my butt look big and stuff?

Josh McDaniels: Not really. Actually it looks quite ni… wait, ugh, what am I saying? Can you please take this meeting seriously, Tom?

Tom Brady: Oh my gosh like seriously, who didn’t say that I’m taking these meeting seriously and stuff? I showed up on time an hour late and stuff.

Josh McDaniels: Argh. Bill, I don’t know how much more of this I can take.

Bill Belichick: You’re going to take it, and you’re going to like it, McDouche.

Josh McDaniels: But… but…

Tom Brady: Speaking of butts, you have a fine one yourself, big boy. How about I take you for a wild ride after this meeting is over?

Josh McDaniels: Ugh, why couldn’t I still be with the Rams?

MIAMI OFFENSE: I’d ask what in the world is Tom Brady doing to himself with these haircuts, but there’s a more prevalent question this week: How the hell is Ryan Tannehill going to score on the Cardinals? Seriously, Arizona’s defense is a behemoth. It’s ferocious defensive line crashes down on opposing offensive fronts, forcing poor throws into a back eight featuring All-Pro-talents like Daryl Washington, Patrick Peterson and Adrian Wilson. The Cardinals caused major problems for Tom Brady and QB Dog Killer, so what the heck is Tannehill going to do?

Well, there are two glimmers of hope for Miami. The first is that Darnell Dockett could be out with a hamstring injury. The stud end left the Eagles’ game with that malady and didn’t return. He missed practice Wednesday and is listed as questionable. The second is that Reggie Bush may play. Bush suffered a knee bruise against the Jets, but the Dolphins seem optimistic about his availability.

Even if Bush doesn’t play, Miami could still run the ball. The one chink in Arizona’s defensive armor is that it’s just mediocre versus the run, ranking just 17th against it. That really makes me wonder why Andy Reid gave only four carries to LeSean McCoy in the first half last week.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Everyone wants to know how Tannehill will survive against the Cardinals. I even asked this myself earlier. But why doesn’t anyone want to know how Kolb will fare versus Miami’s defense?

It’s a very fair question. Think about what the Dolphins’ stop unit has done thus far. They shut down Matt Schaub in Week 1, put the clamps on Darren McFadden in Week 2 and did a great job versus the Jets until Bush’s injury and Dan Carpenter’s missed kicks capsized a potential victory.

The Dolphins have the top ground defense in the NFL, so Arizona won’t get anything from Ryan Williams this Sunday. Kolb will have to move the chains by once again throwing short passes to his receivers. He won’t be able to sustain drives using that strategy against a great stop unit like Miami’s.

RECAP: This seems way too easy. Everyone’s on Arizona because it’s an obvious choice. “The Dolphins stink; of course the Cardinals can win by a touchdown!”

I don’t think so. In fact, the Dolphins are one of my two favorite plays of the week (along with the Patriots) for the following reasons:

1. I actually think this spread is too high considering how poor Arizona’s offense is. This is going to be a very low-scoring game, so it’ll probably be close.

2. People are underestimating how good Miami’s defense is. Shutting down Schaub and McFadden is pretty damn impressive. Everyone’s focusing on the Cardinals because they’re 3-0, so the Dolphins are the underrated team for a change.

3. The Cardinals have a divisional road game in four days, rendering this contest pretty insignificant compared to that one. A non-conference game is pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

4. Coming off three consecutive upset victories, the Cardinals won’t be at 100 percent given that they’re a big favorite for the first time. That’s a huge dynamic change.

5. I mentioned this in the Buffalo-New England capsule: Did you know that no quarterback has covered the spread since 2000 playing in a September game coming off two or more consecutive victories in which he threw zero interceptions in both contests? The trend is 0-18 ATS, and it makes sense because an overconfident signal-caller will do too much and consequently commit errors.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams will be missing a key defender; Richard Marshall is out for the Dolphins, while Darnell Dockett will be sidelined for the Cardinals. Reggie Bush is probable, however.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

No one wants any part of Miami.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 80% (48,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Dolphins are 13-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Dolphins are 5-11 ATS vs. NFC teams since the Tony Sparano era.

Dolphins are 5-13 ATS after a loss of 6 or fewer points since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Cardinals 23, Dolphins 22
Dolphins +5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 24, Dolphins 21

Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Denver Broncos (1-2)
Line: Broncos by 7. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Broncos -9.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Broncos -6.
Sunday, Sept. 30, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. We lost so many contestants in Week 3 because of the Patriots (975 – why did so many people take them?), Saints (312), 49ers (153), Steelers (62) and Redskins (62). There are about 220 people remaining.

Fantasy: We’ll be running FanDuel contests through the end of October. It’s going to be a $1 entry fee this week, but with a $1,000 prize pool. Go to the Fantasy Football Contest page for more details (link will be available later during the week).

DENVER OFFENSE: I love how everyone is saying Peyton Manning is done because he has a noodle arm. Umm… didn’t everyone expect some diminished arm strength out of Manning after his, I don’t know, four neck surgeries? Manning was never going to beat anyone with his arm. His best trait continues to be his mind. His ability to manipulate safeties and outsmart defensive coordinators is what he’s best at. Sure, he’s never going to be the same as he once was, but he’s still a pretty solid quarterback.

Manning’s struggles the past two weeks can also be attributed to his competition. He just battled the Falcons and Texans, two of the better defenses in football. The Raiders don’t belong anywhere near that distinction. In fact, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league because they’re missing both starting cornerbacks. Ben Roethlisberger just threw for 384 yards on them, and Manning will pick up right where Big Ben left off.

The Raiders aren’t very good against the run either, being just two weeks removed from surrendering 249 rushing yards to Reggie Bush and the Dolphins. Defensive tackle Tommy Kelly is mailing it in, so Willis McGahee could have a solid game – if he plays. McGahee is battling a rib injury, but he participated in Wednesday’s practice.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders can be very competitive if they don’t kill themselves with dumb mistakes. They played a pretty clean game against the Steelers and consequently were able to match Pittsburgh point for point. Of course, it helped that the Steelers were missing two of their better defenders, but still – the fact remains that if Oakland refrains from committing penalties, it can achieve success.

There are a couple of things that could hinder the Raiders’ aerial attack, however. First is Darrius Heyward-Bey’s injury. He’s out, and there’s a good chance that heavily targeted tight end Brandon Myers may also miss this contest with a concussion. That means Rod Streater and Derek Hagan will have to step up. Denarius Moore is the best receiver on the roster, but someone else will have to get open with Champ Bailey smothering the emerging, quick wideout. Second, I don’t trust Oakland’s offensive line to hold up against Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. Right tackle Willie Smith, playing for an injured Khalif Barnes, is a big liability.

If the Raiders want to move the chains, they’ll have to do so with Darren McFadden. There were some concerns that McFadden wasn’t fitting in well with Greg Knapp’s new blocking schemes, but he quelled some of those worries with a big outing versus Pittsburgh. The Broncos just gave up 152 rushing yards to the Texans, so McFadden figures to have another quality performance.

RECAP: The Broncos just suffered two tough defeats, so they could be a bit flat as a big home favorite in this game. The Raiders, meanwhile, are slightly underrated. Think about it – they lost Week 1 because their long snapper got hurt and they were blown out in Week 2 in what was an early start time under the hot Miami sun. Their victory against the Steelers was no fluke.

I’m going to pick Denver to win this contest, but the Raiders should keep it close. Oakland tends to live for these divisional matchups.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Broncos could be flat coming off two losses to the Falcons and Texans.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Bettors still believe in Peyton Manning. That, or they’re just fading Oakland.

Percentage of money on Denver: 63% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Road Team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings (Raiders 9-3 ATS since 2006).

Raiders are 14-24 ATS in October since 2001.

Broncos are 11-34 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Broncos are 2-16 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 24
Raiders +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 37, Raiders 6

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Line: Jaguars by 1. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Bengals -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Bengals -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 30, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 4 has been posted – Greg Schiano steps up his antics a notch.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton is on fire. In the past two games, he’s thrown for 646 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. However, he did this against the inept Browns and banged-up Redskins. Can he continue this torrid pace at Jacksonville?

I have my doubts. The Jaguars seemed terribly inept against the pass early on, especially when they permitted Christian Ponder to throw for 270 yards in the opener. However, they didn’t have either of their starting cornerbacks healthy for that outing, so if you take away that performance, they surrender a 6.2 YPA, which is good for eighth in the NFL. Derek Cox and Rashean Mathis played a full game for the first time last week, and Jacksonville consequently did a good job of limiting Andrew Luck (considering that he threw 46 times).

The Jaguars can currently be beaten on the ground. They’re just two weeks removed from giving up 219 rushing yards to the Texans. The main problem is stud linebacker Daryl Smith’s absence. Smith is listed as doubtful, so BenJarvus Green-Ellis has a plus matchup. There is an issue though, and it’s that the Law Firm is incredibly mediocre. He’s averaging 3.6 YPC this season despite playing two games against the Browns and Redskins.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The two hyphenated running backs have appealing matchups. The Bengals have the No. 32 ground defense in the NFL, and it’s not even close. They surrender 5.8 YPC, while the No. 31 team, Atlanta, is at 5.2. Rey Maualuga has somehow transformed into the worst linebacker in the league. I don’t know if he’s hurt or what, but Cincinnati can’t keep playing him much longer. It’s amazing how much of a liability he has become.

The Jaguars will need to establish Jones-Drew for obvious reasons. Blaine Gabbert is too craven to stand in the pocket and locate his receivers downfield. The Bengals have three tremendous pass-rushers in Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap, so keeping Gabbert in third-and-manageable situations is key. It helps that left guard Eben Britton and right tackle Cameron Bradfield practiced Wednesday. That’s a great sign, as they’ve sorely been missed.

On the rare occasions in which Gabbert musters enough courage to take a shot downfield, he may find a receiver open. Cincinnati’s starting corners, Leon Hall and Dre Kirkpatrick, missed practice Wednesday. They were both out at Washington, and it appears as though at least one will miss this contest.

RECAP: I disagree with this spread. I don’t think these teams are that far apart. And on top of that, we’re getting some line value with Jacksonville. The Bengals were -1 last week, but now they’re -2.5 because of their impressive victory against the hobbled Redskins.

I like the Jaguars. They should be favored by about a point, or maybe even more given the health of these teams. Jacksonville finally has almost everyone back from injury, while Cincinnati still has issues in that department.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We lost our line value, but that’s because the Bengals have more injuries. In addition to not having Nate Clements and Dre Kirkpatrick, the Bengals are listing Leon Hall and Jeff Faine as questionable. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are completely healthy (save for Daryl Smith) for the first time all year.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

All the Bengals have to do is beat Jacksonville? Easy money.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 87% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Bengals are 18-11 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Jaguars are 13-27 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Jaguars 20, Bengals 17
Jaguars -1 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 27, Jaguars 10

New Orleans Saints (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 53.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Packers -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Packers -10.
Sunday, Sept. 30, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 24, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are Visa Credit Card, LaQuisha and the Replacementender.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I’ll get to the Touchception ramifications toward the end of this capsule. For now, I want to focus on Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers’ struggling scoring attack. Green Bay has just as many points as the Browns, a statistic that Tony Kornheiser pointed out on PTI. That’s misleading, however, because Green Bay has battled the 49ers, Bears and Seahawks, who rank 11th, sixth and fifth against the pass, respectively. The Packers’ schedule has been brutal, but it’s finally beginning to ease up.

The Saints are dead last versus the pass despite playing a rookie quarterback (albeit Robert Griffin), a struggling Cam Newton and Matt Cassel. Thanks to absent coaching, they blow so many coverages. They also can’t get to the opposing passer. Protecting Rodgers has been an issue for the Packers, but it won’t be this Sunday.

Rodgers won’t have to air it out if he doesn’t want to. Just handing it off to Cedric Benson will also do the trick. New Orleans is 30th against ground attacks, something which Jamaal Charles just exploited.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s like Groundhog Day. The Saints experience the same exact thing week after week. They look great offensively in the first quarter but then completely fall apart because the interim to the interim head coach can’t make adjustments. Green Bay is great at doing this, so it’s a big advantage to the host.

Like the Packers, the Saints can’t protect their future Hall of Fame quarterback because of their inept offensive tackles. Drew Brees has been sacked only seven times, but that’s a misleading statistic because he’s so great at releasing the ball quickly. Only the Bears have more sacks than Green Bay does this year (12), so Brees will constantly be harassed Sunday afternoon.

The Packers’ defensive weakness is in the ground game; they rank 26th against it, surrendering a 4.7 YPC. Pierre Thomas could have some nice scampers, but the Saints simply don’t run the ball well enough to exploit this liability. Mark Ingram sucks.

RECAP: I really don’t understand why this spread is so low and why there’s equal action on this game. Do people not realize that the Saints are done? They have no coaching staff.

I would place at least a couple of units on the host, but I’m scared of the Touchception implications. How will the Packers respond? We’ve never seen anything like this in NFL history. The Green Bay players are either going to be in F-U mode or struggle because they’re too distracted talking about how they were cheated. I’d lean toward the former because they’re so well coached and have great veteran leadership, but there’s no real way of knowing what’s going to happen.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m adding a unit on the Packers. The Saints will be missing two linebackers on their already-putrid defense.

The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Packers rebound from that ridiculous loss.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action, surprisingly.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 57% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Drew Brees is 30-20 ATS as a dog.

Drew Brees is 19-12 ATS after a loss with the Saints.

Aaron Rodgers is 34-19 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 10-3 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Packers -7.5.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Saints 24
Packers -7.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 53.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 28, Saints 27

Washington Redskins (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
Line: Buccaneers by 2. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Buccaneers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Buccaneers -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 30, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, will be the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

Here are some of the people I’ve trolled as Mario Migelini:

Niner fans love to send hate mail to me, so trolling them is sweet, sweet revenge.

Ruskell Wilkens outplayed Aaron Rogeors on Monday Night Football, at least for one half. Maybe I should have Mario Migelini make my picks.

I’d like to personally thank Aaron Steigmeyer for his great fantasy advice. I was able to acquire Greg Little for Arian Foster. The championship trophy is as good as mine.

I knew some Seahawk player would have a billion sacks. See, I wouldn’t have lost a unit on the Packers had I just listened to Migelini’s advice.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Mike Shanahan told the media this week that he doesn’t like how much punishment Robert Griffin is taking. Part of the reason is the offense he’s running, so I’m not sure what he’s even complaining about. The other factor is Trent Williams, who was knocked out early against the Bengals. Griffin consequently took six sacks.

Williams is doubtful with a knee, so Jordan Black will start. He was awful last week, but the good news for Griffin is that Tampa right end Adrian Clayborn is out for the year. The bad news is that Gerald McCoy and Michael Bennett can still pressure the quarterback. Bennett has a huge advantage over beleaguered right tackle Tyler Polumbus.

Making matters worse for Griffin is that Pierre Garcon may not be available. He was limited in Wednesday’s practice, which follows last week’s pattern. Stricken with pedestrian receivers, Griffin will have to everything on his own yet again. He won’t even be able to hand the ball off very much because Alfred Morris has an extremely difficult matchup against the Buccaneers’ No. 2 ground defense (2.8 YPC).

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Josh Freeman was absolutely terrible last week, erasing the good will he built in a solid performance against the Giants. He did have a tough matchup though, so he can be excused if he rebounds versus Washington.

There’s no reason for Freeman not to bounce back. The Redskins have so many defensive injuries that it’s ridiculous. Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker are both out. Nickel corner Cedric Griffin will probably miss this game. There’s a chance starting safety Brandon Meriweather could return, however, which would be a big boost considering how poorly DeJon Gomes has played in his absence.

Even if Meriweather helps Washington’s currently pathetic aerial defense, Freeman will still be able to hand the ball off to Doug Martin and expect big gains. Washington is ranked 19th versus the run (4.2 YPC). BenJarvus Green-Ellis failed to take advantage of this last week because he’s not any good, but Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson couldn’t be stopped the previous Sunday.

RECAP: I’d make a big play on the Redskins if they didn’t have so many damn injuries. The Buccaneers are in a terrible spot, favored after coming off emotional defeats against the Giants and Cowboys. They put everything they had into those two contests, so they’ll be too burned out to give 100 percent versus Washington.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. Meriweather is playing for the Redskins, as expected, so that’s good news.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Buccaneers should be in a let-down alert following two emotional losses to the Giants and Cowboys.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Redskins are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Washington: 70% (41,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Buccaneers are 6-17 ATS at home in the previous 23 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Redskins 30, Buccaneers 27
Redskins +2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 24, Buccaneers 22

New York Giants (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
Line: Eagles by 2.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Eagles -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Eagles -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 30, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: .

I have some great news. My girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, just created the new Aaron account. She’s harassed some people already:

I actually thought Sunny was a guy when she was doing this. We figured it would be more fun to ask guys to send naked pictures to us because it’s the complete opposite of what the original Aaron did.

Yes, that’s Farim! One of our old GameCenter favorites. Here’s another post from Farim:

This is exactly what I want – an entire army of people trolling on NFL.com for ruining GameCenter. My Week 3 MVP goes to Neil Barone, who caused mayhem on the Bengals-Bills page:

These are just some of the comments. There were dozens of people calling him an idiot. It was glorious. Neil Barone allowed me to troll someone named Logan Bradshaw as well:

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I didn’t bother slotting the Eagles in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings last week despite their 2-0 record for many reasons, one of which is that they turn the ball over way too much. E-mailer Joe S. asked me to call QB Dog Killer the “Turnover Machine” because he gives the ball up way too frequently. It’s an appropriate nickname because he’s so careless with the football. He’s always had issues reading defenses and recognizing blitzes, but now he’s just doing stupid crap, whether it’s throwing late across his body or failing to protect the ball as defenders slap away at it.

Part of the reason for QBDK’s turnover struggles is the inept offensive line. The group, already pedestrian to begin with, is missing center Jason Kelce and will probably be without left tackle King Dunlap again. The Giants, who just destroyed Carolina’s front this past Thursday, won’t have any issues putting pressure and rattling QBDK.

There is some hope for the Eagles though. Andy Reid may actually remember to run the ball – I can’t understand why LeSean McCoy had just four carries in the first half at Arizona – and if he does, McCoy will have some success against a New York ground defense that surrenders 4.6 yards per carry, which ranks them 25th in the NFL. Also, the Giants have several injuries to their secondary. Corey Webster and Jayron Hosley are questionable with hand and hamstring injuries, respectively. The former practiced Wednesday and may play, but the latter is almost definitely out. Both Tony Romo and Josh Freeman torched New York’s defensive backfield, so QBDK will also be able to find open receivers downfield. It’s just a matter of whether he’ll continue to commit crucial mistakes or not.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants had an injury to their offensive line themselves against the Panthers, as right tackle David Diehl was out. This forced Will Beatty into the left tackle position, and he performed way above expectations. However, he has a much tougher test against Philadelphia’s fierce pass rush.

The Giants will need to do exactly what the Cardinals did – throw short passes to nullify the Eagles’ elite defensive front. Eli Manning simply won’t have time in the pocket to find Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz downfield consistently. It’ll have to be shorter stuff, particularly to Martellus Bennett.

Philadelphia isn’t very good versus the run. Andre Brown, who was very impressive against the Panthers, should be the featured runner once again, even though Ahmad Bradshaw will play. I really liked what I saw out of Brown. He’s a tough runner with some burst, but his most impressive traits are his vision and patience. He figures to gash the Eagles, who had major issues with Ray Rice in Week 2 and Ryan Williams at the end of last week’s game.

RECAP: We’re getting points with the better team, so I like the Giants. I’m not going to bet on them, however, because this is the type of game that Philadelphia usually wins. The Eagles always suck when expectations are high, but when the media and fans are constantly bashing the coaching staff and players, which is what’s happening now, they pull off the unlikeliest of upsets. Yes, they’re favored here, but everyone expects them to lose.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m sticking with the Giants.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Everyone now knows that the Eagles are overrated.

Percentage of money on New York: 76% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Road Team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

History: Eagles have won 7 the last 8 meetings.

Giants are 34-17 ATS on the road since 2006.

Eagles are 75-55 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Eagles 20
Giants +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 19, Giants 17

Chicago Bears (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Cowboys -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Cowboys -3.5.
Monday, Oct. 1, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Dallas, the worst place in the world. Tonight, the Chicago Bears take on the Dallas A**holes. Guys, as the biggest Eagle fan on the planet, I hate the Cowboys. I hate everything they stand for. I would gladly blow myself up like a terrorist if I could even take out one Cowboy. And speaking which, a Cowboy is standing next to me. What say you, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Karsten, like my momma always say, if you do not got nothin’ nice to say, say nice thing and lie. I understand you a Eagles fan, but it is wrong to blowed up a player, except if it is the punter because nobody like those guy.

Reilly: The punter’s useless, Emmitt. And don’t worry. I have something more sinister up my sleeve.

Tollefson: Kevin, I have to interrupt you for a second. I hope you’re not thinking what I’m thinking.

Reilly: Trick Tony Romo into stuffing a stick of dynamite in his anus?

Millen: My pleasure, Kevin.

Reilly: It worked perfectly, guys. I asked Millen here to announce that he’s having a kielbasa party in his seedy hotel room. Romo came, of course. But he didn’t know that the kielbasa was actually a stick of dynamite. Millen was supposed to stick the kielbasa-dynamite into Romo’s backside and then excuse himself. Romo, of course, would leave it in there the next day, and KABOOM!

Millen: I was supposed to excuse myself? I rode the young stallion all night long…

Reilly: You what? Oh well, I guess it doesn’t matter. OK guys, once I hit this switch, Romo will blow to smithereens. Here goes… 3… 2… 1!

*** An explosion is heard in the distance, outside of the stadium. ***

Reilly: What the hell!? Why didn’t Romo explode?

Millen: Wait, which one was Romo again? The young stallion who’s black and muscular?

Reilly: No, you fool! It’s the white guy with the dark hair!

Millen: Oh, well… ha… he looks like a young stallion as well.

Tollefson: All I have to say, Kevin, is that I’m glad you didn’t harm any of the Cowboy cheerleaders, because I’ll be sleeping with some of them during halftime.

Griese: I like to sleep every day from 2 to 4 p.m.!

Reilly: Shut up, senile fool. Don, how are you going to sleep with the cheerleaders?

Tollefson: That was easy, Kevin. All I had to do was tell them that I’m Jerry Jones. Cheerleaders are wonderful creatures, but they’re not the brightest people in the world. They fell for my ruse quite easily.

Reilly: Ugh. Why do things work out for everyone but me? All I wanted was for some dynamite to explode in Romo’s anus and for his guts to blow up all over the football field. But nooooo… my plot gets screwed over by incompetence yet again!

Davis: For the Cowboys, you have Tony Romo. He’s a good quarterback. And what about DeMarco Murray? A very explosive back in his second year. How about Dez…

Reilly: Charles, I’m in a bad mood, so if you say another word, I’m going to have Millen stick some dynamite in your backside – and he won’t miss this time. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Remember when the Cowboys looked awesome in the season opener? Tony Romo was on fire and everything was working. Well, not so much since. I can understand struggling against a great Seattle defense, but what happened against the Buccaneers? Eli Manning just lit them up for 510 yards, so why couldn’t Romo get anything going?

Well, a couple of things happened. First, the Buccaneers applied immense pressure on Romo. Center Phil Costa’s absence was huge because neither Mackenzy Bernadeau nor backup center Ryan Cook could handle Gerald McCoy. Tackles Tyron Smith and Doug Free have also disappointed. The Bears have the most sacks in the NFL (14), so they’re going to flood Dallas’ backfield. As a consequence, Romo will have to hurry his throws, while DeMarco Murray would be able to get anything going.

The second reason for Dallas’ futility is Jason Witten’s severe decline and Dez Bryant’s disappointing lack of advancement. Witten has completely fallen off in the early going, while Bryant can’t seem to get his act together. Of course, either could improve without a moment’s notice, so Romo will obviously be hoping for that against Chicago’s fierce defense.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears’ scoring attack has looked functional for only three quarters this year. Those all came against the Colts, who were caught with their pants down when they lost their top defender, Dwight Freeney to injury. The Bears have subsequently done nothing offensively.

The offensive line is a train wreck. Jay Cutler is constantly pressured, and that won’t change in this contest. The Cowboys are tied for 10th in the NFL with seven sacks, while offensive coordinator Mike Tice is too busy focused on the entire offense to improve the blocking. Tice used to be one of the premier offensive line coaches in the NFL, but he has too much on his plate right now because he was senselessly promoted. The kicker is that Tice hasn’t shown an ability to make adjustments, so the Bears downgraded two positions on their coaching staff because of that move.

Cutler won’t be able to do anything. On the rare occasions in which he doesn’t have defenders in his face, he’ll see that Dallas’ elite cornerbacks are covering Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Cutler won’t have success handing the ball off either; the Cowboys are decent against the run (12th; 3.88 YPC) and there’s a possibility that both Matt Forte and Michael Bush will miss this game. Bush suffered a shoulder injury against the Rams, putting his status in doubt.

RECAP: This was a really tough pick to make because the two teams are so similar – both have blocking, injury and general offensive issues. The Cowboys seem like they have more potential to break out of their funk; they’ve at least looked good against a playoff-caliber opponent.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still can’t find any reason to bet either side. I’m still leaning Cowboys.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 61% (91,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Jay Cutler is 33-48 ATS.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Cowboys 19, Bears 13
Cowboys -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 34, Cowboys 18

Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games
Browns at Ravens, Patriots at Bills, Titans at Texans, Chargers at Chiefs, 49ers at Jets, Seahawks at Rams, Panthers at Falcons, Vikings at Lions

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Falcons -1, Packers -1.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330

Moneyline Underdog: Vikings +185 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$90

Moneyline Underdog: Dolphins +180 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Raiders +260 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
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2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)