NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)

NFL Picks (2011): 76-78-7 (-$2,965)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 21, 5:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): 49ers -10.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): 49ers -10.5.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 14, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are 1) Jerks of the Halloween Party. 2) Penn State Football scandal.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Is John Skelton better than Kevin Kolb? That seems to be the consensus thinking right now. Skelton, who has a massive arm, is 2-0 as a starter. Kolb is just 1-6. Skelton could easily be just as good or better than Kolb, but that’s more of a knock against the latter. Skelton is pretty erratic and raw, while Kolb is skittish in the pocket.

Skelton is expected to start, but faces his toughest challenge yet. The Rams have a terrible defense, while the Eagles are really flawed. The 49ers, meanwhile, are stout defensively, ranking first against the run (3.1 YPC), (tied) 12th versus the pass (6.9 YPA) and 11th in sacks (23).

A hobbled Chris Wells will struggle once again, forcing Skelton to constantly operate in third-and-long behind a shaky offensive front. Larry Fitzgerald will once again make some acrobatic catches, but unlike the stupid Eagles, the 49ers will do everything in their power to take Fitzgerald out of the game.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Meanwhile, the 49ers’ star offensive player, Frank Gore, injured his knee and ankle in last week’s victory over the Giants. Jim Harbaugh hinted that Gore could be limited this Sunday, meaning Kendall Hunter will see more touches than usual.

Alex Smith will obviously be affected by Gore’s limitations, but Arizona’s inept secondary will make up for it. The Cardinal corners have really struggled this year, so they’ll have trouble covering Miguel Lobsterbush and Braylon Edwards.

I’d really like to see Vernon Davis get more involved. He scored a touchdown against the Giants, but the 49ers need him to block, given the condition of the offensive line.

RECAP: The public is all over the 49ers, and understandably so. They’ve looked great and are undefeated against the spread. However, I like the Cardinals for two reasons:

First, his game means absolutely nothing to San Francisco. At 8-1, the team is two up as far as the No. 2 seed is concerned. Following an emotional victory over the Giants, the 49ers may not have enough energy for Arizona.

Second, San Francisco has been having trouble putting away crappy teams, defeating the Browns and Redskins by only 10 and 8, respectively.

This is not a big bet, by any means, but I like the Cardinals enough to place a couple of units on them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

No surprise that most bettors like the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 68% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Opening Line: 49ers -10.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Showers, 50 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 20
Cardinals +10 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 23, Cardinals 7

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-7)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Rams -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Rams -2.5.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them.

These comments are all from some user named Migelini, who might just be the dumbest person alive. Thanks to Facebook friends Steven L. and Jay B., as well as e-mailer Dan J. for sending me his profile:

1. “so i no you are rader fans but iff you chose eng thrower who you choose eng hascelbat or tarvis or withhart. i choose eng tarvis he throws the ball fastist. but i no i no you are rader fans.”

For those keeping track, “Hascelbat” is Matt Hasselbeck; “Tarvis” is Tarvaris Jackson; and “Whithart” is Charlie Whitehurst, I think. Given those three options, I choose eng Hascelbat, since he was good before Kenny Britt went down.

2. “seahawks #1 beest teem we make com bak and go to supergame this yeer.just you wait and see.”

I can’t wait until February so I can have my annual Supergame party!

3. “i agree to you. seahawks #1 beest teem. with tarvis and marchel and sid his beest and taptua best defenceman and carull beest coch. we go all ways to supergame super ball game.”

Is it Supergame or Super Ball Game? Who the hell is Marchel? And why do you still think Lofa Tatupu (Taptua) is still on the team?

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I suppose I should begin with Tarvis and Marchel. The two were great (Super Ball Game-worthy?) against Baltimore’s defense, so why can’t they duplicate what they accomplished last week against the pathetic Rams?

St. Louis ranks 31st against the run. The team is so bad against opposing ground attacks that Chris Ogbonnaya looked pretty good last week. Marchel Lynch is looking as spry as ever, so he should be able to have a great performance.

Tarvis Jackson, meanwhile, will be able to capitalize with play-action and short-yardage opportunities. How effective he’ll be will be determined by whether Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin can return from the concussions they suffered Sunday.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Sam Bradford should get better every week, as he continues to get healthier and develop a stronger rapport with Brandon Lloyd. His new No. 1 wideout was blanketed by Pro Bowl corner Joe Haden this past Sunday, but Seattle doesn’t have anyone like that who can take Lloyd out of the game. If only they still had Taptua!

The problem though is that Bradford won’t be able to lean on a strong ground attack this time. Steven Jackson has been looking great, but the Seahawks rank fourth versus the rush, limiting the opposition to 3.6 YPC.

This will put Bradford into unfavorable passing situations, exposing him behind an offensive line that has surrendered a league-worst 32 sacks. Fortunately for Bradford, Seattle has just 14 sacks on the year.

RECAP: The Seahawks are the better team, but that would explain why the Rams aren’t favored by the standard three. I actually do like St. Louis to cover though, given that Seattle could be flat off its upset victory over the Ravens.

If you want a nifty trend, divisional road dogs are 21-36 against the spread since 2002 following a victory as a home dog. The thinking behind this is that these teams weren’t looking ahead to their divisional matchup, focusing instead on that prior contest. This ties into what I said about the Seahawks being flat.

Besides, the Seahawks stink on the road, and I’m sure the Rams really want to avenge last year’s Week 17 loss.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 55% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Seahawks have won 11 of the last 12 meetings.

Seahawks are 15-32 ATS on the road since 2006.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Seahawks 13
Rams -3 +100 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 24, Rams 7

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (5-4)
Line: Falcons by 6.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Falcons -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Falcons -6.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: I’ve been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on GameCenter. The past few weeks, I listed comments that a chick named Kimbrkitty received.

Here’s someone else. Her name is Emilysh, and she actually e-mails me from time to time. Here’s her profile picture:

I asked her if I could post the pervy comments sent to her, and she said yes. Here they are:

1. “ur really pretty i have a question do u like resses32? on here”

What is this, middle school? “Hey, do you like my friend Bobby!?”

2. “hunbunz u has 2 anser me quik. i mis u soo moch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111!!!!!!!!11!!1”

This really sounds like something a horny, drunken Emmitt Smith would type.

3. “A Little Advice If I Were You I Would B Carefull With This suckonmyfootball Person He Is Weird And I Think He Is A Pervert So Be Carryfull”

Emilysh will be careful – to avoid pervs like you. This post was made by Aaron3619, who spends most of his time hitting on every single girl on GameCenter:

I informed Emilysh about Aaron3619’s posts, and she had this hilarious comment about him:

You might have seen this when you were looking for creepy shoutouts, but he literally sent me like 8 shoutouts in an hour because first he said “can I ask you a question,” but I wasn’t online so he kept being like “hello are you there” and “are you mad at me” and “are we still friends,” etc.

I got annoyed because I hated that he was spamming me and I’d seen that he’d been asking a ton of girls to send him pictures of themselves over email, so I responded and was like “you know what, if you’re going to ask me to send you a picture of myself over email, the answer is NO.”

I think he was shocked I said that, so he was like “I wouldn’t ask that” or some lie. So basically… he’s annoying.

It’s sad that he thinks there’s actually a chance that he could pick someone up on NFL.com GameCenter. I’m tempted to make a fake account and flirt with him. If someone decides to do this, please let me know.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: If Mike Smith decides to make another bone-headed decision and go for it on 4th-and-inches on his own 1-yard line, he’ll have less of a chance of moving the chains in this contest than he did last week. That’s because the Titans are ninth against the run (4.1 YPC) compared to the Saints being dead last (5.4 YPC).

Michael Turner won’t have much running room, which means Matt Ryan will have to move the chains on his own. That could be a bit problematic, given that Julio Jones may not play because yet another hamstring pull (this one on his other leg). Roddy White, meanwhile, is not 100 percent either. He’ll have a tough matchup against Cortland Finnegan, who just shut down Steve Smith.

With both the passing and rushing attacks bogged down, Ryan will undoubtedly see a ton of pressure. The Titans sacked Cam Newton five times last week, which was an impressive feat.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Is Chris Johnson back? Eh, maybe. He rushed for 130 yards and a touchdown 27 carries last week, but was pretty much bottled up until the Panthers were so far behind that they stopped caring.

Carolina ranks 26th against the run. The Falcons are much more stout, coming in fifth in that category (3.7 YPC). It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Johnson revert to Weeks 1-9 form.

If so, Matt Hasselbeck will naturally struggle. Losing Kenny Britt was terrible for the Hascelbat, as neither Nate Washington nor Damian Williams is a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Williams has had a couple of decent games recently, but I’m not buying him quite yet.

RECAP: We have conflicting angles here. The Falcons are coming off an emotional loss to the Saints, so they could be flat for a non-conference foe. However, if you exclude road dogs, teams coming off home overtime losses are an amazing 37-15 against the spread since 1994.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Falcons figure to be flat after that loss to the Saints.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

A big lean on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 77% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 17-8 ATS at home.

Mike Smith is 14-4 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Falcons -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Falcons 31, Titans 17
Falcons -6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 23, Titans 17

San Siego Chargers (4-5) at Chicago Bears (6-3)
Line: Bears by 4. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Bears -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Bears -4.5.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bears.

Two weeks ago, I posted some perverted messages that illiterate GameCenter poster Farim sent to some female GameCenter users:

I posted the first half of a conversation with Farim I had on G-chat last week. Here’s the second half:

Farim: paytin manning lose da game
paytin manning lose da suck saint last satrday

Me: i fukc yu up da azz wit suasage

Farim: siuzjale is a suck city philly is da place 2b
da suiejake team suck philly gona kill them

Me: phully da suck city becuz of yu

Farim: philly is da best city in da amireca
yur team suck
philly is da best s[prts city in da uas

Me: my team is da eagle so yu just say eagle suck folk

Farim: yur team eagle den here is gift
One Hea’rt

Me: awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww <3
i show yu pick of my friend she think yur hot

Farim: wut? yu make no sense

Me: my friend think yur hot

Farim: who yur frend

Me:

Farim: yur ugly

Me: i hoter than yo azz

Farim: can i suck ur t.i.t.s
no
eagle is da hotest in da nfl

Me: u can suck my peniz

Farim: is dis yu
http://www.nfl.com/fans/profile/suckonmyfootball
yu send me weird mshgs

Me: noo diz me

Farim: yu send me dis
hay y0y0 homee. us a a$.$hol u ant gott kno rite delettun ma comints lik dat. ho.re. f.uc y0s a$.$. f.uc da da.m eegles. ya mothaf.uc.a!!!!!111!1!
eagle gona kill da suck bear

Me: and den eagle gonna blow up cuz they got dynamite in der azz

Farim: wtf fnyaite

Me: bomb
kielbasa bomb in der azz

Farim: da men cuming 4 me now
i steal foods at da wallmarts 2day omg

Me: suck da men t.i.t.s.

Farim: who dat fan yu dat f@ggish fan

Me: u f@ggish f@ghole

Farim: yu send me dis on nfl.com
STAWP ignoriin ma @$.$ u dumwitt. micaela vicks 8 ma sh!tt & dyd in ma a$.$hol.
i hate yu

Me: cuz suck t.i.t.s.

Farim: i want 2 eat yu soooo baddd

Me: i wana eat kielbasa out of milen’s azz

Farim: yu gona do dat while da eagle kill ur team 2day
eagle gona kill da suck bear

Me: eagle gona kill yu

Farim: pacer suck the win folk
i am eagle f.u.c yu

Me: eagle gona kill eagle then

Farim: wtf stoopid
add meeee babyy http://www.nfl.com/fans/profile/farim
pacer suck eagle is da best team in da nfl
ram suck

Me: yu suck t.i.t.s.

Farim: i wana suck yur t!ts
JET SUCK…THEY WIN BY FLUKE

Me: i wana suck yur p.u.s.y.

Farim: fly eagle fly
eagle guna kill da suck bear

Farim: i was f.u.c.i.n ur wife when u was watch nfl preseason game

Me: i was f.u.c.i.n. yo baby sister

Farim: i was f.u.c.i.n ur wife wile yu was playin madden

Me: i was f.u.c.i.n. yo baby sister and uncle at the same time

Farim: f@ggishay

Me: f@ggishole

Farim: wtf yur so stoopid
yor team suck eagle guna win da super bowl

Me: my team eagle idiot1

Farim: i gota go watch da eagle kill da bear

Me: i gota watch da eagle kill da farim

Farim: omg
eagle is da best team in da nfl One Hea’rt
i eagle yu f@g

I wonder if Farim killed himself after the “Suck Bear” killed “Da Eagle?”

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: It’s not really “Suck Bear” as it is “Suck Charger” leading into this weekend. San Diego looked awful Thursday night, as Kamerion Wimbley was constantly in the backfield after left tackle Marcus McNeill left the game with a stinger. There’s some optimism that he’ll be able to play, but he’ll be visiting a specialist this week. If he can’t suit up, Julius Peppers figures to easily pick up where Wimbley left off.

How the Chargers operate will depend entirely on McNeill. Having him in the lineup again will give Philip Rivers time to find Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and the emerging Vincent Brown downfield. If McNeill is out again, however, I’m sure San Diego’s coaching staff will devise some max-protection blocking scheme to shield Rivers. I just think the Chargers were so bad against the Raiders because the sudden McNeill injury caught them unawares.

The bastard of the Trident will receive some help from his rushing attack, as Chicago shockingly ranks 30th against the rush in terms of YPC (5.2). Also, remember that Ryan Mathews will be a week healthier.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I mentioned San Diego’s protection schemes. Well, the Bears have completely revamped theirs after an awful start. Jay Cutler is barely being sacked anymore, as Mike Tice deserves major credit for making the proper adjustments.

The Chargers just surrendered 199 rushing yards to Michael Bush and the Raiders, so they’re obviously going to have their hands full trying to stop a guy who would be considered for league MVP if it wasn’t for someone named Aaron Rodgers.

Jay Cutler didn’t have to throw much against the Lions, but he was sharp two weeks ago, thanks to Earl Bennett’s return to the lineup. Bennett’s not the most talented wideout in the world, but he and Cutler just have a really strong rapport, dating back to their college days at Vanderbilt.

RECAP: It seems like everyone and their evil stepsister thinks the Bears are going to win this game easily, but I actually really like the Chargers for five reasons:

1. As I mentioned earlier, I feel like people put too much stock into what happened Thursday night. The coaching staff wasn’t prepared for Marcus McNeill going down. If he plays, that’s obviously good. If he doesn’t, they’ll know what to do this time.

2. Despite his struggles, Philip Rivers is still a Super Six quarterback. He’s 12-7 against the spread as an underdog, and now that everyone is really starting to doubt him, I think he’ll really be set to prove everyone wrong.

3. One of the famous Big Al trends apply: Underdogs coming off a loss as -7 or more, playing a team coming off a straight-up win are 52-32 against the spread since 1989.

4. Regarding teams that lose the spread four or more times in a row: Underdogs of seven points or fewer who have been guilty of this are 37-20 against the spread since 2004. You have to cover at some point eventually, right?

5. There’s tons of money on the Bears, so why did the spread drop from -4 to -3.5? And why isn’t this line higher to begin with if everyone thinks this is a cakewalk for Chicago?

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
This game means a bit more to San Diego.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

A decent amount of action on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 74% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Philip Rivers is 12-7 ATS as an underdog.

Bears are 25-14 ATS in November since 2001.

Bears are 3-16 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.

Jay Cutler is 30-47 ATS.

Jay Cutler is 14-23 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Bears -4.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 44 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Chargers 26
Chargers +4 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 31, Chargers 20

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3)
Line: Giants by 6. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Giants -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Giants -6.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I don’t get how they can possibly have a point spread on this game. QB Dog Killer has two broken ribs, and his status is currently unknown. All of the beat writers expect him to sit out, so this line is saying that the Giants are just one point better than a desperate Eagle team with Vince Young under center. Umm… what?

The good news for Young is that DeSean Jackson will be back in the lineup – unless, of course, the speedy wideout misses any more special teams meetings. Jackson is wildly overrated as a pure receiver, but he can stretch the field and open things up for other players. LeSean McCoy will have more running room – assuming the Eagles actually decide to run the ball.

But it’s all about Young. How will he handle the great pressure the Giants bring? Young might be an idiot, but he can at least scramble for first downs. And unlike QBDK, he’s healthy and still playing for a contract, so he’ll do everything in his power to make teams believe that he’s worthy of a starting gig.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Philadelphia’s struggles against the run are well-documented. It’s unclear if Ahmad Bradshaw will be able to play, but the Giants will pound the rock successfully regardless of who’s lining up in the backfield.

This, of course, can only help Eli Manning, who didn’t have the luxury of a strong ground attack against San Francisco’s stalwart defense last week. Eli still went 26-of-40 for 311 yards, two touchdowns and a pair of picks, however, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to duplicate his stat line from Week 3 when he played at Philadelphia: 16-of-23, 254 yards, four touchdowns.

That first Philly contest was when Victor Cruz got going, and understandably so. The Eagles have two shutdown cornerbacks, but nothing behind them. DRC (Doesn’t Really Care) doesn’t count because he sucks. He’s out for this contest anyway.

RECAP: I’m not going to post an official pick just yet because QB Dog Killer’s status is still up in the air, and I feel like the line could adjust for that. Assuming QBDK doesn’t play, I like the Eagles. I’m a fan of taking veteran teams missing their quarterback for the first time because they tend to give 110 percent, while the other team relaxes a bit. We’ve seen Andy Reid have success in this dynamic with Koy Detmer, A.J. Feeley (2002 and 2007) and Jeff Garcia over the years.

Also, it’s worth noting that divisional road teams are 48-28 against the spread since 2002 coming off a non-divisional loss as a favorite. This system indicates that the teams in question were caught looking ahead to a particular contest. The Eagles didn’t take the Cardinals seriously, thanks in part to this matchup against the Giants.

QB Dog Killer Out: QB Dog Killer has been ruled out, so I can finally post my official pick.

I absolutely love the Eagles for the following reasons:

1. As mentioned before I’m a huge fan of taking quality, veteran teams missing their quarterback for the first time. They know they have to bring 110 percent. The Giants, meanwhile, can “relax” because Vince Young is starting.

2. The trend I listed earlier still applies, obviously.

3. This is the first time all year that the Eagles are underdogs. They’re not the hunted anymore. There are no expectations. Andy Reid’s teams tend to excel when all the chips are down.

4. This is do-or-die for Philly. A loss here would officially end the season. They’re not going to go down without a fight.

The Psychology. Edge: TBA.
Depends on QB Dog Killer’s status.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

A lean on the Giants that should grow larger if QB Dog Killer is ruled out.

Percentage of money on New York: 79% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Road Team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings.

History: Eagles have won 6 the last 7 meetings.

Eagles are 72-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Giants -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Cloudy, 54 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Giants 22, Eagles 21
Eagles +6 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 17, Giants 10

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3)
Line: Patriots by 17. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Patriots -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Patriots -15.
Monday, Nov. 21, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to New England, home of the evil Patriots who defeated my Eagles in the Super Bowl years ago. Guys, I want to hate the Patriots so bad, but Tom Brady is so dreamy. You can get so lost in his eyes, and I just want to rub my face in his beautiful locks of hair. Guys, I was so devastated when he cut his hair. Do all of you agree?

Emmitt: Mike, to be honestly, I have always beened jealousness of Tim Brady’s hair. I even try to steal his hair and glue it on my heads! He was able to bought a super model with his hair, but he cut it because his wife tell him that he have to cut his hair because it’s my way or the driveway.

Reilly: What a b***h. Seriously. How can anyone force Brady to cut his gorgeous locks? I have half a mind to set up a bomb in her workplace. That’ll show her!

Herm: No bomb! No dynamite! No explosion! No boom! You just admitted it on camera! You’ve been heard! You’ve been seen! You’ve been recorded! You’ve been taped! If someone bombs her you’ll be… uhh…

Reilly: I’ll be what, Herm? I’ll be what!? Shut your stupid mouth. No one cares what you think. No one!

Tollefson: Here’s the important factor, Kevin. We need to do some investigating. How well does Brady’s wife cook? How well does his wife clean? If she cooks and cleans well, maybe we can kidnap her and have her be our maid. If not, then bombs away!

Reilly: Don, his wife is a supermodel. I doubt she cooks and cleans.

Tollefson: What!? What type of woman doesn’t cook and clean? This stuff makes me so mad!

Millen: I’m mad too, Don. I’m mad too. Tom Brady was a young stallion when he won three Super Bowls. I thought he was going to win six or seven Super Bowls, but he’s now an old stallion who lost his hair. Guys, maybe I’m just depressed from the Penn State scandal, but I’m just not in the mood to shove some kielbasa up the old stallion’s backside right now. Joe Paterno… he… I’m sorry guys, I can’t do this…

Reilly: I think I speak for everyone that it’s a good thing Paterno was fired. If it keeps Millen from saying perverted things about kielbasas, then I hope someone from Penn State is axed every week.

Emmitt: Mike, I could agree with you more, even if I wanted to.

Reilly: Amen, Emmitt. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: For those of you who haven’t heard, Matt Cassel is probably done for the season. The left-handed Tyler Palko will get the nod for the first time in his NFL career.

It sucks for Palko that he wasn’t able to battle this New England defense about a month ago. The Patriots have really improved since getting Jerod Mayo back from injury, limiting both the Giants and Jets to 14 points or fewer (the Giants scored twice off turnovers, while two Jet points came off a safety). The Patriots still definitely have holes in their defense, but Palko just doesn’t have the talent or experience to exploit them.

Palko won’t have the complementary running game or pass protection either. Jackie Battle’s no good, and the Patriots are a decent 11th versus the rush anyway. Meanwhile, Cassel took 12 sacks in his previous three contests, and it’ll only be worse for Palko because he’s a southpaw. His blindside protector will be the completely inept Barry Richardson.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: How good was Tom Brady in the second half of the Jet game? He went into total “F-U” mode, slicing and dicing New York’s exhausted defense with his no-huddle attack. If Brady could do this against the Jets, why not the Chiefs?

Kansas City is dead last in sacks, so Brady won’t have any pressure in his face. He will be going up against some talented defensive backs like Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers (or if you want to be politically correct, Brandon Tyrell), but the Jets couldn’t stop Brady with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. When he’s on, Brady is just too good and has too many weapons at his disposal.

The Patriots could also have some success running the ball. Since their Week 6 bye, the Chiefs have surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to every single opponent, including 201 to the Broncos this past Sunday.

RECAP: This has blowout written all over it. Forget the talent disparity; I just feel like Kansas City could be completely down in the dumps after losing Cassel. The team knows its season is over.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
The Chiefs need this more than the Patriots.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

No one’s betting on Tyler Palko.

Percentage of money on New England: 80% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Chiefs are 22-12 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Chiefs are 10-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.

Tom Brady is 127-43 as a starter (99-67 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -14.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 40 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, Chiefs 13
Patriots -17 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 34, Chiefs 3

Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games
Jets at Broncos, Panthers at Lions, Buccaneers at Packers, Cowboys at Redskins, Jaguars at Browns, Bengals at Ravens, Bills at Dolphins, Raiders at Vikings

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Panthers +255 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Chargers +160 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Eagles +210 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$105

Teaser: Ravens -0.5, Cowboys -1 (2 Units) — Correct;+$200

NFL Picks - Oct. 30

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 30

NFL Power Rankings - Oct. 28

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 4-3 (+$855)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 2-0 (+$900)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 8, 2024): 10-6 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 8, 2024): +$455

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 65-65-5, 50.0% (-$2,315)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 15-22, 40.5% (-$1,485)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 13-11, 54.2% (+$300)
2024 Season Over-Under: 63-59-1, 51.6% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$275

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,486-3,217-200, 52.0% (+$19,355)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,122-1,007-56 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 566-496-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,922-2,893-75 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-3	Bears: 3-4	Bucs: 5-3	49ers: 6-2
Eagles: 3-4	Lions: 6-1	Falcons: 3-5	Cardinals: 6-2
Giants: 2-5	Packers: 4-3	Panthers: 4-4	Rams: 3-4
Redskins: 2-5	Vikings: 3-4	Saints: 4-4	Seahawks: 5-2

Bills: 3-5	Bengals: 2-6	Colts: 5-3	Broncos: 6-2
Dolphins: 3-4	Browns: 2-6	Jaguars: 2-5	Chargers: 3-3
Jets: 4-4	Ravens: 4-3	Texans: 3-5	Chiefs: 2-4
Patriots: 5-2	Steelers: 2-6	Titans: 4-3	Raiders: 4-4

Divisional: 13-18 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 12-11 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 23-16 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 15-23 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 24-36 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 10-5 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 7-13 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 3-5 (2011-23: 33-37)