NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)

NFL Picks (2009): 84-59-3 (+$6,295)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 16, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Oakland Raiders (2-6)
Line: Raiders by 2. Total: 36.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Raiders -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Raiders -1.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Nov. 9, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Me (Multi-Colored Face Girl). 2) Downtown Philly. 3) Random Jerks at the WalterFootball.com Halloween Party.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders’ rushing attack surprisingly had been really effective with Justin Fargas. The Chiefs, meanwhile, get blown off the line of scrimmage. Seems promising for the home fans, right?

Guess again. Darren McFadden will be back, which means that Al Davis will force Tom Cable into using McFadden early and often. McFadden’s YPC (3.1) is much lower than Fargas’ (3.7) because he falls down on first contact. You may ask why Cable just doesn’t punch Undead Al. The answer is simple – Cable doesn’t want to be turned into a vampire.

What McFadden brings to the table is an added weapon in the passing attack. Unfortunately, the passing attack is orchestrated by a clueless, brain-dead quarterback. It’ll be a miracle if Russell doesn’t commit at least one turnover in this contest.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Todd Haley is really stupid (scroll down to the Chiefs in the NFL Power Rankings for scientific proof). Jamaal Charles is talented, yet Haley gave his top runner only nine touches against the defensively challenged Jaguars last week. Apparently, forcing the ball into your best players’ hands is a pretty bizarre concept for Haley.

You beat the Raiders with the run because their secondary is pretty good. Unfortunately, Haley probably doesn’t realize this and will call for about 40 pass plays again. It’s a good thing Matt Cassel is so awesome and doesn’t take tons of sacks.

The good news for the Chiefs is that they are finally starting to see some weapons emerge. Dwayne Bowe won’t get much against Nnamdi Asomugha, but Lance Long has become a nice Wes Welker-type possession receiver for Cassel. Chris Chambers, meanwhile, isn’t very good, but his large frame makes him a solid red-zone target. Oh, and let’s not forget about Charles. If he actually gets the ball, he could do some damage.

RECAP: Every year, the Raiders and Chiefs play two horrible games. The host is always favored by 1-4 points, and the visitor always wins. I can’t remember the last time this didn’t happen.

The bottom line is that the Raiders do not deserve to be laying points to anyone. Taking the points is the right move here.

Also, you have to figure that Russell won’t be prepared for this game. Do you really think he’s going to study film on the Chiefs? He’s probably plans on spending the entire week eating Cheetos and Oreos.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Anyone want to lay points with the Raiders? Anyone?

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 59% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Road Team has won the last 6 meetings.

Chiefs are 13-7 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Raiders are 11-26 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Raiders are 12-30 ATS at home the previous 42 instances.

Raiders are 0-7 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.5.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Chiefs 16, Raiders 13
Chiefs +2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 36.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Chiefs 16, Raiders 10

Seattle Seahawks (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
Line: Cardinals by 8.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Cardinals -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Cardinals -9.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Remember to get your NFL picks in for the picking contest. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, we are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, a few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 10 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on Thursday.

And finally, there are 27 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: You can sign all the overpriced receivers you want. You can get your quarterback back from injury. But if you can’t block the opposition, you’re just not going to win in this league.

The Seahawks’ offensive line has been a mess. They can’t open up any running lanes for Julius Jones – even against the Lions – and they can’t protect Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck has taken nine sacks in his past three starts.

Jones won’t be able to run the ball against Arizona’s stout defense, which will force Hasselbeck into long-yardage situations. That’s going to be a major problem against a Cardinals defense that brings a ton of pressure. The last time these teams played, Arizona was constantly in Seattle’s backfield.

The one piece of good news for the Seahawks is that Sean Locklear may return to the lineup. Locklear, who was supposed to take over at left tackle for Walter Jones, hasn’t played since Week 2. Locklear suited up against the Lions, but didn’t take the field. If he starts, it’ll be a major boost for Seattle, though it won’t nearly be enough to cure the team’s blocking woes.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The reason why these teams have reverse records is simple. While the Seahawks can’t protect Matt Hasselbeck, the Cardinals can effectively shield their quarterback. Kurt Warner has been sacked only five times in the past three contests, and it’s not like his line has faced all cupcakes either; in that stretch, Arizona has gone up against the Giants, Panthers and Bears.

The only redeeming part about Seattle’s defense is its pass rush, so it’s not good news that the team sacked Warner only twice in their Week 6 meeting. Warner repeatedly torched Seattle’s secondary, going 32-of-41 for 276 yards and two touchdowns in that contest. Even though Marcus Trufant is back in the lineup, I can’t see things changing, especially considering that this contest will be in Arizona’s stadium.

It actually might be worse for the Seahawks because it looks like the Cardinals have found some sort of rushing attack since beating them 27-3. Arizona has had its first-, third- and fourth-best rushing performances of the year in the past three weeks.

RECAP: I don’t trust the Seahawks’ offensive line, and I don’t trust the Seahawks as a whole on the road. In three away tilts, Seattle is 0-3, losing to the 49ers, Colts and Cowboys by a combined margin of 95-44.

Though the Cardinals are two up in the division, they’ll come prepared for this game. Ken Whisenhunt does a great job preparing his team for divisional battles. In fact, Arizona is 6-2 against the spread versus the NFC West the past year and a half. I think it’ll be 7-2 when this one’s over.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game in the NFC West, if such a thing even exists.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Except for one game, the Cardinals have been very impressive lately. The Seahawks? Not so much.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 86% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Seahawks are 10-19 ATS on the road since 2006.

Cardinals are 6-2 ATS vs. the NFC West since 2008.

Cardinals are 1-9 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 10 instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -9.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cardinals 30, Seahawks 10
Cardinals -8.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 31, Seahawks 20

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-4)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Packers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Cowboys -1.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week’s edition:

my dearest

my name is vivian,a lovely girl, am average in height and fair in complexion,am a loving, romantic and caring angel. I see you mail today i deciede to contact you. i really want to have a good relationship with you. Beside i have a specil something i want to discusse with you Hope to hear from you soon. i will send my beautiful pictures to you and also tell you more about my self. I know age will not be a bearier to our relationship, what i need is just your love and caring. I will give you my best, bye for now.

I think Vivian, a lovely girl, is lying to me. What kind of girl goes, “I am Vivian, a lovely girl.” I don’t walk up to people and say, “I am Walt, a lovely Web site owner.” Come to think of it, maybe I should.

At any rate, I’ve discovered Vivian’s true identity. Vivian, a lovely girl, is really Emmitt.

Look at all of the spelling errors: “specil;” “discusse;” “my self;” “bearier;” etc. Emmitt has no idea how to use a spell-checker. This is obviously him.

It all makes sense. Angry that I always make fun of him, Emmitt tried his hardest to comprise an e-mail to trick me into falling in love with a female persona of his. Once I’d fall into the trap, Emmitt would reveal that he made a fool out of me as revenge.

I’m on to you, Emmitt. I’m going to reply to this e-mail and try my hardest to get you to say “blown away” or “blown out.” Once I see “blowed away… uhh… blowed… uhh…” I’ll know it’s you.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s a coincidence that the Seahawks and Packers games are back-to-back on this page because Green Bay has the same exact problem as Seattle. The offensive line sucks.

Aaron Rodgers is on pace to be sacked 74 times. I know Rodgers hold on to the ball too long sometimes, but how is an offensive line that bad? I really don’t understand how Ted Thompson could let this happen.

Dallas’ pass rush has been hot lately, which is terrible news for Rodgers. Rodgers probably gets sacked 5-6 times in this contest, which could lead to a turnover or two, as we saw in Tampa Bay.

The Packers need to establish a ground attack to take pressure off the quarterback. The Cowboys have improved statistically against the run lately, but that’s a bit misleading because they’ve played teams like the Eagles and Seahawks that don’t rush the ball well. Fortunately for them, the only times Ryan Grant has eclipsed 61 yards this season is when he has gone up against the Rams, Lions, Browns and Buccaneers.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo is on fire. Ever since Miles Austin-Jones stepped in as the No. 1 receiver, Romo has tossed 11 touchdowns and a pick. In that four-game span, Romo has averaged 306 yards per contest on an amazing 9.2 YPA. There isn’t a quarterback in this league who is playing better right now.

Austin-Jones’ presence has opened things up for everyone else. Suddenly, Roy Williams is now facing one-on-one coverage. Jason Witten is getting less attention over the middle of the field. And don’t forget about Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice leaking out of the backfield. I see no reason why Romo would slow down here. The Packers can’t get pressure on the quarterback; they have just 13 sacks on the year. Though his running game probably won’t work too well, Romo will have all the time in the world to locate all of his weapons downfield.

RECAP: Haven’t we been here before? Last season, the Cowboys had a big win against the Eagles and then traveled to Lambeau the following week as 3-point favorites. Dallas won that contest, 27-16. In fact, the Cowboys own Green Bay, taking the past two from them with double-digit victories.

I expect a similar result. I don’t know how the Packers are going to block Dallas. The Cowboys as a whole are just on fire right now.

I really hate that I’m going against the Big Al Trend II, which has worked so well the past two weeks. However, a trend is meaningless unless there’s a good reason for it. What the Big Al Trend II infers is that a good team (favored by -7 or more the past game) bounces back as an underdog the following week against a squad that just won.

I just don’t think that logic applies here. The Packers are not even close to being a good team; they were favored by -9.5 only because the Buccaneers were perceived to be terrible. A good team doesn’t allow 37 sacks in eight games.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
Not much of an edge here; the Cowboys are on fire, while the Packers are reeling.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Cowboys are on fire and the Packers just lost to the Buccaneers. Where do you think the money will go?

Percentage of money on Dallas: 87% (157,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Big Al Trend II: Underdogs coming off a loss as -7 or more, playing a team coming off a SU win are 66-36 ATS.

Winning Coach: Mike McCarthy is 3-0 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Cowboys are 12-3 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Tony Romo is 23-11 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 12-8 ATS on the road.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 41 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cowboys 34, Packers 17
Cowboys -3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 17, Cowboys 7

Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Eagles -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Chargers -3.

Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for the Video of the Week segment. They showed this as one of the top bloopers on Friday’s SportsCenter: Epic Fail Football. Quite possibly the worst football play in history. Why would he even tackle if he’s trying to help return a punt? Poor kid. I just hope he was credited for the tackle.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers are flawed, but they continue to get it done. They have no running game to speak of, and their offensive line is a train wreck, but they’ve scored an average of 27.3 points per game during their winning streak.

However, San Diego’s three opponents – Kansas City, Oakland and the Giants – all struggle to put pressure on the quarterback. Combined, those squads have 47 sacks on the year, which averages out to 15.7 per team. The Eagles, meanwhile, have a whopping 27 sacks.

With Philip Rivers having to do everything because of a non-existent rushing attack, Philadelphia will accumulate a bunch of sacks. Rivers is talented enough to lead the Chargers on some scoring drives, but it’ll be really difficult for him to do so with tons of pressure in his face.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: San Diego’s defense struggles to stop ground attacks, but this is a good matchup for them because Andy Reid refuses to run the ball. Reid is too brilliant of a coach to worry about silly things like running the ball.

Donovan McNabb will constantly be throwing passes in this contest. That won’t be a good thing because Shawne Merriman finally looks like he’s healthy again. Jason “Derrick Coleman” Peters has proven to be an abomination at left tackle, so I expect Merriman to beat the overweight slob quite a few times in this contest.

The one piece of good news for the Eagles is that Brian Westbrook might be back in the lineup. Westbrook isn’t nearly as explosive as he has been in the past, but he’s a huge upgrade over LeSean McCoy in terms of picking up the blitz. Westbrook’s presence in the backfield could give McNabb enough time to find DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek downfield.

RECAP: In the opening game of this week’s pick page, I pretty much called myself an idiot for selecting the Eagles last week because I knew how to read them and simply ignored it. I said I’d explain later, so here it is:

Reid is a moron in the fourth quarter and McNabb is a choke-artist. Both are extremely overrated because they can’t get it done in the clutch. When the Eagles are expected to win – they were 3-point favorites over the Cowboys – they usually let their fans down. In fact, in their last 10 games decided by seven points or less, they are 1-8-1. McNabb also has only one fourth-quarter comeback in the past four years.

However, the Eagles are at their best when everyone is down on them. Think back to last year when they were blown out by the Ravens. Everyone in Philadelphia considered the season a lost cause. Most fans even wore black jerseys to the Thanksgiving night game to signify the death of the 2008 Eagles. So, what did the Birds do? They ripped off a billion victories in a row and made it to the NFC Championship – where they lost because they were expected to win again.

This is the same situation as last year. Everyone in Philly wants Reid fired and McNabb traded. The national media finally sees how stupid Reid’s game-managing is. The Eagles have been the most criticized winning team in the NFL this past week.

This is exactly when the Eagles thrive. They’re going to win a few games in a row. The critics will be silenced, and the fans will become believers again. But once they’re expected to win again, they’ll let everyone down.

Given Reid’s success on the West Coast and the fact that the Chargers aren’t as good as their record would indicate, I think this is a Philadelphia victory. It’s also my favorite play of the week.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles choke when their fans believe in them, and they thrive when Philadelphia is down on them. Guess where the fans are at now in the wake of the loss to Dallas?

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
The national media, Philly fans and most gamblers are down on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 63% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Statfox Trend: Home favorites coming off a road win of 1-3 points are 19-43 ATS since 2000.

Winning Coach: Andy Reid is 15-10 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Donovan McNabb is 23-11 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 36-22 ATS on the road since 2001.

Andy Reid is 9-4 ATS on the West Coast.

Eagles are 12-18 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Chargers are 7-2 ATS at home the week after playing on the East Coast since 2004.

Chargers are 10-8 ATS in November home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Chargers 20
Eagles PK (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 31, Eagles 23

New England Patriots (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (8-0)
Line: Colts by 2.5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Colts -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Colts -6.

Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’m doing the same.

It’s a miracle! It’s a miracle! Bo-Bo wins two in a row! Bo-Bo wins two in a row! For the first time ever (I think), Bo-Bo hasn’t followed up one of his rare wins with a loss.

Even though he started scrubs like Patrick Crayton, Laveranues Coles, Earl Bennett and John Carlson, Bo-Bo won 102-77. Here’s his lineup and the points each player scored for him:

QB: Joe Flacco (0)
RB1: Michael Turner (31)
RB2: Frank Gore (21)
WR1: Earl Bennett (9)
WR2: Patrick Crayton (7)
WR3: Laveranues Coles (7)
TE: John Carlson (4)
K: David Akers (14)
DEF: Cowboys Defense (9)

Bo-Bo is now 3-6. His opponent should hang his head in shame and retire from fantasy football forever.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: In his past three games, Tom Brady has thrown for 1,020 yards, 10 touchdowns and three picks. Looks pretty amazing, but I wouldn’t be too impressed.

First of all, his three opponents, Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Miami, are a combined 6-18. All three of those defensive backfields are horrific. And despite those numbers, Brady really struggled to put together long drives against the Buccaneers and Dolphins. Sure, he hit the occasional long bomb to Randy Moss, but that’s not really difficult to do against crap secondaries like those.

The last time Brady battled a real defense was back in Week 5 at Denver. Brady was 19-of-33 for 215 yards, giving him a meager completion percentage (57.6) and YPA (6.5).

I think we’ll see that Brady here. Despite what he has done in the past three weeks, he’s still not 100 percent. And don’t fall into the trap of thinking that the Colts won’t be able to stop the pass because of all of the injuries to their secondary; the three guys who are out – Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden – have barely played this year. It’s been Indianapolis’ young corners (Jerraud Powers, Jacob Lacey and Tim Jennings) and strong safety Melvin Bullitt who have really stepped up.

Sanders, Jackson and Hayden have only SIX combined starts this year. Six! Anyone who is picking against the Colts because of their secondary “woes” clearly hasn’t been paying attention to them all year.

Indianapolis’ rush defense has really improved since that Monday night disaster at Miami, and Laurence Maroney sucks anyway, so Brady is going to have to throw a ton. Sure, he’ll put together some scoring drives, but I think he’ll struggle for the most part. The Colts defense is really underrated.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While Brady has been pedestrian when he hasn’t feasted off the crap teams of the NFL, Peyton Manning has been playing out of his mind this year. This, in my opinion, is Manning’s best season as a pro, especially when you consider that he’s getting it done with all of these young players.

A large part to any quarterback’s success is his offensive line. Manning barely gets sacked as it is, so I don’t see how New England will apply any sort of pressure on him. On the year, the Patriots have only 15 sacks. If they can’t get to Manning, this year’s prospective MVP is going to torch their secondary.

Speaking of which, New England’s pass defense is really overrated right now, which is a bit ironic considering how underrated Indianapolis’ secondary is. The Patriots have risen to eighth in pass defense, but look at whom they’ve played recently: The Dolphins don’t attack with downfield strikes; the Buccaneers had Josh Johnson under center and he sucks; and the Titans had a drunk Kerry Collins in a snow game. Before these three aerially challenged foes, New England was 14th versus the pass and had just allowed 330 yards to Kyle Orton. Yes, the same Kyle Orton who throws like a 12-year-old girl!

While Brady and the Patriots will put some scoring drives together, I believe Manning and the Colts will have much more success in that department. Sure, Bill Belichick is going to throw the kitchen sink at Manning, but these teams play each other every year. Manning has seen it all. He struggled early in his career versus New England, but the last four times he has gone against Belichick, he’s a combined 84-of-139, 1,154 yards, six touchdowns and three picks. That’s an impressive YPA of 8.3.

It’s also worth noting that the Colts are 3-1 in those four contests.

RECAP: This has been a long write-up, so I’m going to make this recap simple. This line is off by three points (should be Colts -6 based on talent). The Colts have the better offense and the better defense. I’ll be completely shocked if they lose this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Brady vs. Manning. No extra motivation on either side.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Early action on the Colts. The public now likes the Patriots. I thought this would be 50-50.

Percentage of money on New England: 70% (179,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 105-30 as a starter (80-53 ATS).

Tom Brady is 8-2 ATS in domes.

Tom Brady is 11-6 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Patriots 20
Colts -2.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 48 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Colts 35, Patriots 34

Baltimore Ravens (4-4) at Cleveland Browns (1-7)
Line: Ravens by 11. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Ravens -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Ravens -10.5.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see the Ravens and Browns battle in what should be a thrilling game. Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Cleveland, a great place to live! Tonight, the Baltimore Ravens take on the Cleveland Indians! This should be a game for the ages! Guys, the Indians have a tough dilemma on their hands. Do they start Tom Brady or Derek Anderson? Emmitt, what do you think?

Emmitt: I would start Derek Anderson for three reason. First and foremostly, Anderson put together great numbers in the 2007 season and nearly got the Browns to the doggone playoff. If he can match those numbers again, perhaps the Browns can still make the doggone playoff. Second, Brady Quinn have long hair, and history have shown that quarterback with long hair do not have successfulness in the National Conference League. And third… uhh… I forget.

Reilly: Interesting, Emmitt. Coach, these Ravens used to play in Cleveland, and these Browns used to play in Indianapolis. What do you make of this swap? Who won in your opinion?

Herm: What do I think? Here’s what I think! I’ll tell you what I think! I’ll tell you what I think right now! Here it is! Here’s my opinion! My opinion is this! This is it! The Browns… uhh… Ravens… uhh…

Reilly: Emmitt, what’s your take on the situation?

Emmitt: I think you made a mistakement when you say these teams have swapped… uhh… teams. It is my belief that the Browns once upon times played in Baltimore, and the Baltimore Ravens once upon times played in Indianapolis. I always hear that the Baltimore Colts had a quarterback name Johnny Universe. He led his team to the doggone playoff many time.

Reilly: You’re right. My mistake, Emmitt. Coach, I’m surprised you didn’t correct me.

Herm: Here’s…

Reilly: Screw you, Coach! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: After a grueling Colts-Patriots write-up, I’m glad I have this game to cover.

The Ravens really shouldn’t have any problems scoring against the Browns. Both of Cleveland’s inside linebackers, D’Qwell Jackson and Eric Barton, are done for the year, which means Ray Rice will have a huge game.

Rice’s running will open up many play-action opportunities for Joe Flacco, who won’t feel much pressure from a defense that generates only two sacks per game. The Browns are 27th versus the pass, so Flacco and Derrick Mason will both rebound off sluggish performances.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The long-haired Brady Quinn will get the start here, so that means plenty of checkdowns and fumbles.

If this sounds familiar to you Ravens fans, you’re not crazy. Baltimore just battled a quarterback like this in Kyle Orton and completely shut him down. The difference here is that unlike Orton, Quinn has no running game or talented receivers to work with.

It’s worth noting that the last time the Ravens “battled” the Browns, Quinn and Derek Anderson were a combined 17-of-27 for 126 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions.

RECAP: This is a must-win for the Ravens. And I think it’ll be an easy win. I don’t even know if this constitutes as a road game. Will there actually be Browns fans in the stands? And if so, why would they go to this game? Their team is a disgrace, and if I were them, I’d boycott until the owner hires someone who actually knows what he’s doing.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

A must-win situation for the Ravens.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No one in their right mind would take the Browns.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 91% (195,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 11 meetings (Ravens have won the last 3 meetings).

Ravens are 24-14 ATS in November.

Ravens are 10-5 ATS on the road under John Harbaugh.

Opening Line: Ravens -11.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Ravens 38, Browns 6
Ravens -11 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 39 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Ravens 16, Browns 0

Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games
Bears at 49ers, Bills at Titans, Bengals at Steelers, Saints at Rams, Buccaneers at Dolphins, Lions at Vikings, Jaguars at Jets, Broncos at Redskins, Falcons at Panthers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Live Dog: Jaguars +250 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$250

Live Dog: Bengals +260 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$260

Live Dog: Buccaneers +400 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Pyschological Edge Parlay: Bengals +7, Buccaneers +10, Jaguars +7, Falcons -1.5, Eagles +1, Ravens -11 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)