NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 4, 2008

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 29, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Free NFL Picks – Early Games

San Diego Chargers (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-2)
Line: Chargers by 7.5. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Chargers -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Chargers -8.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Injuries: Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR). Raiders: OUT: FB Oren O’Neal (IR), WR Drew Carter (IR), OT Mark Wilson (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR), CB John Bowie (IR).

There are only 23 people remaining in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. A lot of people were knocked out because the Patriots lost to the Dolphins. Remember to get your picks in if you’re still alive!

Oh, and by the way, if you’re not in the survivor pool, another excuse to visit the forums is for some Heroes Season 3 Premiere Discussion – which includes a picture of Claire in a bikini! Wowwa weewa sexy time!

Anyway, I bring up the Survivor Pool because San Diego is one of my four choices. I’ll discuss this after I delve into this matchup.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers have improved their offensive output from 24 to 38 to 48 points in successive weeks. While another double-digit increase is very unlikely, their scoring ability speaks volumes about how much talent they have on offense. Like Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers is transforming into one of the top quarterbacks in the league. It’s amazing that he’s leading the NFL in touchdowns (9), considering his ACL surgery, his tight end is banged up and his starting center is out.

Oh, and don’t forget that LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t at full strength yet. The Raiders are actually pretty decent against the run (12th), but Tomlinson always eats them alive. If he can’t do it this time, Rivers has the talent and arsenal to torch their secondary. The Raiders will need to rattle Rivers to disrupt the Chargers’ offense, but that’s just not a realistic possibility, as San Diego’s front has surrendered two sacks all year. Rivers wasn’t even knocked down against the Jets.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: There are two huge differences between last year’s Charger squad and this version. One, Shawne Merriman is out. Two, Jamal Williams just isn’t playing like himself. I don’t know why that is, but the numbers don’t lie. San Diego surrenders five yards per carry and has only five sacks on the season.

That said, playing the Raiders can heal all wounds. The Chargers will stack the line of scrimmage against Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, forcing JaMarcus Russell to beat their opportunistic secondary. That didn’t work out too well for Brett Favre, who had much better talent to work with than Russell does. Starting receivers Javon Walker and Ronald Curry each have two catches on the year, while Zach Miller, Russell’s most reliable option, has to stay in to block because Oakland’s offensive line blows.

RECAP: The Chargers have beaten the Raiders nine times in a row. Eight of those contests were decided by a touchdown or more. Six were double-digit San Diego wins.

The Chargers have a big edge in this contest because Norv Turner “coached” Oakland in 2004 and 2005. Former coaches who play their old team generally enjoy success.

SURVIVOR UPDATE: I’m considering four teams this week. I’m not particularly in love with any of the following choices:

CHARGERS OVER RAIDERS: The Chargers are the better team. They dominate this rivalry. Turner coaching the Raiders in 2004-2005 gives San Diego an edge. However, I hate taking road teams, especially in a divisional rivalry. To be fair, the Raiders absolutely suck at home.

BRONCOS OVER CHIEFS: Pretty much the same situation as San Diego-Oakland. The Broncos are superior and they’ve dominated recently. They also happen to be a road team in a heated rivalry. They’re also coming off two tough games, so this could be a flat spot for them. However, if Tyler Thigpen is named Kansas City’s starter, this one’s a no-brainer.

BILLS OVER RAMS: Still a road team, but not a divisional rival. The Bills are a very solid team, and the Rams flat out suck. Trent Green can’t play anymore.

STEELERS OVER RAVENS: Another divisional rivalry, but the Steelers are home at least. Going against Joe Flacco on the road is very intriguing. However, Pittsburgh has major offensive line issues, Ben Roethlisberger is banged up and Willie Parker is out.

Picking a survivor this week is like walking across a mine field. I’ll announce whom I’m taking by Thursday morning.

SURVIVOR PICK IS UP (scroll down a bit)…

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

Norv Turner “coached” the Raiders in 2004-2005.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
As expected, no action on the Raiders. The line has moved off a key number in some places, which is huge.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 92% (204,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won the last 9 meetings.

Hello, Good Bye II: Underdogs of 6.5 or more are 19-10 ATS going into their bye.

Divisional Dog of Seven: As a divisional dog of 7+, Lane Kiffin is 0-2.

Monday Might: Teams winning by 17+ on MNF are 31-15 ATS the week after since 1999.

Raiders are 10-21 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Raiders are 8-23 ATS at home the previous 31 instances.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Prediction: Chargers 34, Raiders 14
Chargers -7.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 45.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Chargers 28, Raiders 18

Buffalo Bills (3-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-3)
Line: Bills by 8. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Bills -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Bills -9.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Bills.

Injuries: Bills: OUT: OLB Angelo Crowell (IR). Rams: OUT: WR Keenan Burton, OT Brandon Gorin (IR), Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Justin King (IR).

The third installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt. Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

The Rams made an Emmitt-like coaching decision this week, naming Trent Green as their starting quarterback. Seriously, what are they thinking? It’s not Marc Bulger’s fault that the offensive line gets knocked over by the wind. It’s not Bulger’s fault that with the exception of Torry Holt, all the talented receivers the Rams stockpiled over the years – Isaac Bruce, Shaun McDonald, Kevin Curtis – are all gone.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Green can’t play anymore. I said this last year when he joined the Dolphins, and I questioned St. Louis bringing him in after what should have been a career-ending concussion. One of three things will happen 10 minutes into this contest: 1) Green’s left arm will be ripped off. 2) Green’s right leg will fall off. 3) Upon getting hit hard and hearing the question, “How many fingers am I holding up?” from the trainer, Green will respond, “I am Batman!”

In all seriousness, Buffalo’s pass rush is going to demolish Green behind St. Louis’ soft offensive line. Steven Jackson once again won’t have any running room because Marcus Stroud is too dominant inside, meaning Green is going to have to move the chains on his own. Good luck with that, Trent. Hope you make it through the game OK.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills struggled to score until late in the game against the Raiders last week. In my pick write-up, I argued that Buffalo could be a bit flat after victories against a pair of 2007 postseason qualifiers. It also didn’t help that Oakland has a pretty solid defense.

The Rams? Not so much. Containing the run is a problem (29th), while stopping the pass (31st) is even more troublesome. Think about it this way: If T.J. Duckett could look like a star against the Rams, imagine what Marshawn Lynch will be able to do. Two hundred yards is a very realistic possibility.

Lynch will have wide-open running lanes to plow through, setting up play-action opportunities for Trent Edwards. Not like Edwards will need Lynch at full strength in this contest; the Rams’ pass rushers are ineffective and the secondary is an abomination.

RECAP: I was actually thinking about taking the points with the Rams before Scott Linehan announced his foolish decision to switch quarterbacks. OK, I can see preserving Marc Bulger so he doesn’t get hurt for next year, but if you’re going to put in a new signal caller, at least make it Brock Berlin – someone with at least some bit of discernible talent.

The fact that St. Louis is starting Green is a joke, and Linehan should be fired immediately after this game, barring the impossible occurs and the Rams somehow pull a win out of their rear ends.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
Coming off a near-loss, the Bills could be more focused here. Like the Chiefs, the Rams are the laughing stock of the NFL, and will try their hardest to prove themselves.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

With the Trent Green announcement, the public has shaded their bets toward Buffalo.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 77% (157,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Hello, Good Bye II: Underdogs of 6.5 or more are 19-10 ATS going into their bye.

Bills are 11-1 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Opening Line: Bills -9.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

Prediction: Bills 31, Rams 13
Bills -8 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 43 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Bills 31, Rams 14

Washington Redskins (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-0)
Line: Cowboys by 10.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Cowboys -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Cowboys -10.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Injuries: Redskins: OUT: DE Jason Taylor, DE Phillip Daniels (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Stephon Heyer*. Cowboys: G Kyle Kosier, S Roy Williams.

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “One thing that they did do yesterday for me, they got rid of that bad taste of the Giants kicking them square dead in the mouth last year, and now they moved on and did what they neededed to do against the Cleveland Browns.” (Commentary: The past tense of need: needed. The past tense of needed: neededed!)

2. “Steve, I couldn�t disagree with you, even if I wanted to.” (Commentary: Emmitt could have just said, “I couldn�t agree with you more,” but Emmitt has a special way of saying things.)

3. “Well, I simply told him, the 2,000 yards is one thing. You have to be patience.” (Commentary: Screw being patient. To get to 2,000 yards, you have to be patience.)

Emmitt was talking about Adrian Peterson in that last quote. Peterson is currently second in the league in rushing behind Michael Turner. One player who isn’t on that list but would be if his team wasn’t busy winning by 20 or 30 every week is Marion Barber.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Hey, it’s not Barber’s fault that he loses carries to Felix Jones in the fourth quarter of blowouts. But I don’t think Dallas fans mind.

Barber, who has 285 yards on the year, will eclipse the century mark again. The Redskins, who’ve surrendered 5.2 yards per carry the first three weeks this year, had problems containing Arizona’s pedestrian ground attack. If they couldn’t stop Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower, how are they going to handle Barber and Jones?

The Cowboys will establish Barber early, which will give Tony Romo even more time in the pocket to locate Terrell Owens, Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton downfield. Washington’s pass rush, which has only six sacks on the season, won’t have Jason Taylor this week, which is a huge loss, as the Redskins plan on using single coverage on Terrell Owens, with Shawn Springs drawing the tough assignment. No one in the NFL can cover Owens one-on-one, especially without a strong pass rush rattling Romo. Though he’s still talented, Springs is 33 and won’t be able to keep up with the best receiver in the game.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jason Campbell has certainly looked comfortable in Jim Zorn’s West Coast offense the past two weeks, but I’d like to see him take on a legitimate defense. Excluding the first half against Philadelphia, Dallas has put the clamps on every offensive unit it has battled. The Cowboys even shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who were coming off a 48-point performance.

Dallas’ pass rush, already owning 10 sacks on the year, will make life difficult for Campbell, who may not have the services of Stephon Heyer at right tackle. If Heyer’s unavailable, Jon Jansen will start in his place. Jansen has been great for a long time, but he looked extremely sluggish this preseason, and was consequently benched.

If Campbell can effectively move the chains against the Cowboys, we’ll know he has truly grasped the new scheme. Call me crazy, but scoring against the Saints and Cardinals doesn’t seem too difficult. Zorn’s offense hasn’t been tested yet.

RECAP: The public is all over the Redskins, and I can’t really blame them. Eleven points is a lot for a heated divisional rivalry, and Campbell has been solid the past two weeks.

I think Vegas set this line ridiculously high to bait people into taking Washington, which has clearly worked. Because the Redskins have been impressive recently, the Cowboys could be fooled into thinking that this is a marquee matchup. Also, remember that Washington completely flattened Dallas in Week 17 last year to get into the playoffs. The host could be out for revenge.

The Cowboys are talented enough that they can beat any NFC team by double digits, as long as they’re focused. Washington has beaten the Cardinals and Saints to improve to 2-1, making them seem like a formidable foe. Dallas will bring everything to the table.

SURVIVOR PICK: This is a tough week. Tons of road favorites and divisional matchups… I thought about taking the Chargers or Broncos, but I really hate going with a visiting team in a divisional matchup. Anything can happen.

Then, I thought back to the cardinal rule of survival picking: Simply take the best choice available. In my opinion, that’s Dallas over Washington.

I would be more surprised if the Redskins beat the Cowboys, than if the Chiefs or Raiders pull upsets at home. Dallas is the best team in the NFL. Washington, meanwhile, is overrated, in my opinion. And you better believe the Cowboys will be focused after getting smoked in Week 17 last year.

I’m not a huge fan of this pick, as choosing a team this week feels like I’m walking through a mine field. But Dallas, in my opinion, is the top choice available.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

The Cowboys, coming off two very tough victories, have bigger fish to fry than the Redskins. Maybe. With Washington at 2-1, Dallas could be fooled into thinking that this is a tough matchup. Remember, the Redskins clobbered the Cowboys in Week 17 last year. This could be time for some revenge.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Wow, the public is betting against the Cowboys? Stop the presses!

Percentage of money on Washington: 66% (178,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Redskins have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Cowboys -11.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Sunny, 90 degrees. Light wind.

Prediction: Cowboys 38, Redskins 24
Cowboys -10.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 46 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Survivor Pick (3-0)
Redskins 26, Cowboys 24

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Chicago Bears (1-2)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Eagles -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Eagles -6.

Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Injuries: Eagles: OUT: WR Kevin Curtis, CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR). Bears: OUT: OT Chris Williams, Brandon McGowan (IR).

Remember the good old days when Chris Berman and Tom Jackson took us through extensive highlights of all the Sunday NFL action with incredible music in the background? I really miss the old NFL Primetime. I rant and rave about ESPN’s foolish decision to ruin its best show every week, and it’s really a shame that an organization with so much money and power cares so little about its fans. Yes, ESPN still runs NFL Primetime, but the three clowns anchoring the show are completely terrible, especially the uber-annoying Merril Hoge, who incoherently yells about “factor backs” every five seconds. This week’s edition of the show was even worse, as all of its trademark music was gone. What the hell is ESPN doing? Please show some compassion for your fans, have Berman and TJ tape the show instead of the NFL Blitz (which covered only five games last week) and then air it at midnight and at 4 p.m. the next day. It’s really not that difficult.

Ugh. At any rate, I find it amusing that Vegas waited until Wednesday evening to post a line on this game, and all they could come up with is Eagles -3. This spread tells me one of two things: 1) The linesmaker who came up with Eagles -3 should be fired because a lot of people are going to win money (as of Thursday morning, 98 percent of the public is on Philadelphia.) 2) The books have set a great line to trap people. If so, this game could be fixed.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: If Philadelphia’s pass rush gave Ben Roethlisberger no time to throw, how is Kyle Orton going to receive any sort of protection? And if Willie Parker could gain only 20 yards on 13 carries, how will Matt Forte find any running room?

For Chicago’s offense to operate somewhat efficiently, it needs Forte running for four and five yards per carry, giving Orton more time in the pocket to convert third-and-short situations. In their first three games, Forte was able to help the Bears move the chains versus the Colts (23rd against the run), Panthers (15th) and Buccaneers (14th). The Eagles are ranked first in this department.

With Orton stuck in third-and-nines instead of third-and-threes, Philadelphia’s hectic pass rush will easily blow by Chicago’s pedestrian offensive line, generating at least a half a dozen sacks and possibly a few turnovers in the process.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The reason Vegas delayed the posting of this line was because of Brian Westbrook’s status. Westbrook will play, which is huge for the Eagles’ scoring attack.

There’s no question the Bears have tons of talent on defense, but what was up with allowing Brian Griese to throw for 400 yards in an overtime victory? It’s not like Griese has the weapons that Donovan McNabb possesses. How is Chicago going to contain Westbrook out of the backfield, DeSean Jackson and Hank Baskett downfield, and McNabb from running for a first down or two? Oh, and Reggie Brown will see increased playing time as well.

RECAP: The Eagles are unquestionably the superior team in this matchup, but will they be flat after a tough victory against Pittsburgh? Normally, I’d say yes, but this is a revenge game. Chicago beat Philadelphia at the Linc last year on an inexplicable 90-yard Brian Griese drive. Don’t think for a second that the Eagles have forgotten about that.

This shady line worries me a bit. If Vegas wanted equal action on both sides, they should have made the spread -6. So, are they going to lose a ton of money, or do they know something all of us don’t? I’m not totally sure, but I’m keeping this at one unit. You never know, Tim Donaghy could be officiating this game as part of his work-release program.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

The Eagles just won a statement game against the Steelers. I doubt they’ll have as much energy for Chicago, though they could be out for revenge. The Bears are 1-2, though they could easily be 3-0 right now.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

One of the weirdest point spreads we’ve seen all year.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 85% (193,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Loser Coach: Lovie Smith is 4-1 ATS as an underdog immediately after losing as a favorite.

Eagles are 48-30 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 23-14 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Prediction: Eagles 16, Bears 6
Eagles -3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 39.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Bears 24, Eagles 20

Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 34.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Steelers -9.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Steelers -9.

Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Injuries: Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), TE Quinn “Miracle Man” Sypniewski (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR), CB David Pittman (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DT Kelly Gregg, S Ed Reed. Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, P Daniel Sepulveda (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 4 NFL Look-Alike Thread, dedicated to Al Davis.

Steelers by five? Is this another shady line? At first I thought so. Then, I saw how the public was betting the game. Why in the world are two-thirds of casual bettors backing the Ravens when they’re getting only five points? I could see taking the Ravens +9 or +10, but +5? That’s just borderline lunacy.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco on the road. Need I say more?

Flacco has great arm strength, but he’s not ready to lead a team into the playoffs. Case in point: All Flacco needed to do was take care of the football against the defensively challenged Browns, and he couldn’t even do that. Flacco completed 13-of-19 passes, but tossed two interceptions. Luckily, he was bailed out by his defense, which intercepted Derek Anderson once in his own territory, and another time for a pick-six.

Having played the Bengals and Browns at home, Flacco has had the benefit of a strong running game by his side. Cincinnati and Cleveland are 17th and 21st, respectively, against the rush. Pittsburgh is second, limiting opponents to just three yards per carry.

With Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain neutralized, Flacco will be asked to convert numerous obvious passing downs. I don’t see that happening, especially in his first road start. The Steelers’ defense could score 14 points in this game.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: People are betting the Ravens because their defense poses a challenge to Pittsburgh’s offensive line, which surrendered eight sacks last week, including six in the second quarter alone. Baltimore will blitz often, but I have to believe Mike Tomlin will have Ben Roethlisberger work on shorter routes to Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller.

What this game comes down to, in my opinion, is converting third downs and not committing turnovers. Both defenses are exceptional, but I trust Roethlisberger and his superior arsenal a whole lot more than the inexperienced Flacco. “Flacco on the road” itself is worth three or four errors. I expect Roethlisberger to remain mistake-free.

RECAP: Having the Steelers favored by only five insinuates that they’re only two points better than the Ravens (adjusting three points for homefield advantage). That’s preposterous. Roethlisberger himself, injured or not, is worth a touchdown over Flacco, especially on the road.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
These two teams hate each other with a passion. Both will bring it.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
So much for the public betting on Baltimore. Bettors are now favoring Pittsburgh, but the line has moved up.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 62% (296,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Home Team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Ravens are 11-19 ATS as an underdog the previous 30 instances.

Ravens are 0-8 ATS on the road since 2007.

Ravens are 5-18 ATS after a home game since 2005.

Steelers are 9-3 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 12 instances.

Opening Line: Steelers -7.

Opening Total: 34.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 60 degrees. Light wind.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Ravens 10
Steelers -6 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 34.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Steelers 23, Ravens 20

Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games
Browns at Bengals, Falcons at Panthers, Texans at Jaguars, Vikings at Titans, Packers at Buccaneers, Cardinals at Jets, 49ers at Saints, Broncos at Chiefs

Printable version of Free NFL Picks: Week 4 (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Chargers -2, Steelers +1 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400

Live Dog: Browns +155 (2 Units) — Correct; +$310

Live Dog: Texans +260 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Live Dog: Vikings +145 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Anti-Public Parlay: Chiefs +9.5, Texans +7, Falcons +6.5, Vikings +3, Cowboys -11 (.5 Units to win 12.1) — Incorrect; -$50

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

Free College Football Picks

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)