NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$530)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$480)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,515)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$710)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,245)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$955)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2018): 7-8 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2018): 7-9 (-$630)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2018): 11-5 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$1,225)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2018): 6-8-2 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2018): 9-6-1 (+$790)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2018): 4-0 (+$1,100)

NFL Picks (2018): 139-128-12 (+$1,800)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 13, 12:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 19 NFL Picks – Saturday Games

San Angeles Chargers (13-4) at New England Patriots (11-5)
Line: Patriots by 4. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -1.5.
Sunday, Jan. 13, 1:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

If you missed it, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

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Some recent Open Rant articles:

Reader’s Heavy Criticism of Josh Rosen

Reader on What to Do with Marcus Mariota

Reader’s 2014 NFL Re-Draft

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Toweli22 Mock Draft

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LSE Mock Draft

Spencer Flohr Football Mock Draft

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I mentioned this on the previous page, but the first three home teams on this slate lost important weapons in the second half of the season, which has hurt their offenses. For the Chiefs and Rams, it was Kareem Hunt and Cooper Kupp, respectively. The Patriots, meanwhile, saw top receiver Josh Gordon suspended because Roger Goodell runs the NFL like a Saudi Arabian dictator.

Gordon’s absence is huge. Without him, the Patriots don’t have anyone who can get open, besides Julian Edelman. This is problematic, especially in this matchup. The Chargers have Desmond King, one of the top slot cornerbacks in the NFL, and he’ll be able to limit Edelman. With Edelman smothered, Tom Brady will have to look elsewhere. But who are these receivers playing “elsewhere?” Rob Gronkowski can barely move. Chris Hogan isn’t very good. Phillip Dorsett? Cordarrelle Patterson? This is bad, and that’s not even taking Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa into account. Both have matchup edges against New England’s tackles.

The Patriots’ running backs will have the best chance of helping their team move the chains by default. James White could have a nice game against the Charger linebackers, but I don’t see Sony Michel doing much. The Chargers have a top-10 DVOA run defense. They just put the clamps on Baltimore’s ground attack, so limiting Michel shouldn’t be much of a problem.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Patriots’ problems extend to their defense. Their primary issue on this side of the ball is stopping the run. This was prevalent in the late-season losses to the Dolphins and Steelers. Both teams trampled New England. Jaylen Samuels, a tight end at N.C. State, rushed for 142 yards on just 19 carries. Again, this is a former tight end! If the Patriots couldn’t stop Samuels from having his career-best game, how are they going to deal with Melvin Gordon?

It would help if the Patriots were much better against the pass, but they aren’t. They have a poor linebacking corps that can’t cover in space, so I imagine Gordon and Austin Ekeler will both have big games as receivers out of the backfield. Also, talented tight end Hunter Henry has been activated and will play in this game. The Patriots have struggled against tight ends all year, so this is bad news.

The only hope the Patriots have of slowing down the Chargers a little bit is if they apply heavy pressure on Philip Rivers. The Ravens did this, and it disrupted some drives. However, outside of Trey Flowers, no one on New England is a consistent threat as a pass rusher. Danny Shelton would be able to help in that regard (and also versus the run), but he’s barely playing. Perhaps Bill Belichick will unleash him for the playoffs, but there’s no guarantee that will happen.

RECAP: This spread is way off. If you were to replace the name “New England Patriots” with some random name like the Zanarkand Abes and just look at the stats and matchups of the two teams, the Abes would not be favored by more than three. In fact, there’s a good chance the Abes would be home underdogs!

But because the New England Patriots have name and player recognition, they’re four-point favorites in this game. That seems absurd to me. The Chargers are far superior to the Patriots in every single regard. Their pass offense is better. Their run offense is better. Their pass defense is better. Their run defense is better. Hell, even their special teams are better.

I made this line New England -1.5, and that might even be too generous for the Patriots, given how much they’ve struggled in the second half of the season. The correct number might be San Angeles -2 or -2.5. The Chargers have the superior personnel and match up extremely well against New England.

Because everyone’s stuck in the past and still believes the Patriots are good, we’re getting a tremendous amount of line value with the Chargers. This is my top play of the week, as it’ll be a five-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought about it, and I can’t envision liking any of the championship weekend games more than this one, so this is now my January NFL Pick of the Month. There are two new reasons I love the Chargers:

1. People have asked me about the third-consecutive road game and the constant trips to the East Coast. Teams playing in their third-consecutive road game are 12-12 against the spread this decade, so that’s not a concern. The Chargers are 6-1 against the spread in early East Coast starts under Anthony Lynn. They thrive in these spots. Plus, you could argue that this serves as a motivational factor for them, as they might believe that the NFL is trying to weed them out with this unfavorable schedule.

2. If that didn’t give the Chargers a motivational edge, this will: Defensive tackle Brandon Mebane has been away from the team because his daughter was stricken with a rare heart condition. She just passed away. This obviously is an absolutely horrific story, but it could serve as a rallying cry for the Chargers, as Mebane will return to the team this week. I could see the Chargers being extra motivated to win a game for their grieving teammate.

With matchup, motivational and spread edges in their favor, the Chargers are the right side for sure, and they’re worth upgrading to eight units. I’m going to lock this in now. The sharps already bet this down from +5 to +4, and they could continue to bet the Chargers. If this goes to +4.5 or +5 again, so be it, but I’ll be sad if I miss out on the key number of four, even if it is a third-tier key number.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line is still +4 in most places, but 5Dimes has dropped this line to +3.5, so perhaps that’s a sign that this spread will fall at other books as well. The sharps are on the Chargers, while public money is beginning to come in on the Patriots, as expected.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is the No. 1 sharp bet of the week, as the pros are all over the Chargers. The public is split, but leaning toward the Patriots. As a result of all this, this line has dropped to +3.5 in most books, though you can still get +4 -115 at Bovada, which is worth it. I still love the Chargers as my January NFL Pick of the Month.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 56% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Philip Rivers is 25-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 or more.

Patriots are 40-18 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 233-73 as a starter (173-119 ATS).

Tom Brady is 26-9 in the playoffs (17-18 ATS).

Bill Belichick is 18-10 ATS with extra time to prepare.

Opening Line: Patriots -5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 26 degrees. Light wind.

Week 19 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Patriots 21
Chargers +4 (8 Units – January NFL Pick of the Month) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$880
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 41, Chargers 28

Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Line: Saints by 8.5. Total: 52.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -7.5.
Sunday, Jan. 13, 4:40 ET

The Game. Edge: Saints.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is complete! In Episode 16, will Emmitt defeat the evil statue group, Statue-13? Can Emmitt and friends unmask who Statue-13’s leader is?

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about the 2018 Christmas commercials.

This week on FOX, we’re going to have two boring people, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the horrible city of New Orleans, where people are drunk all the time. But not me, because alcohol is bad! Guys, I tried to bomb the Bears last week to make sure my Philadelphia Eagles would win. It turns out I didn’t need to bomb the Bears because my Philadelphia Eagles proved that we are dominant and that we will win 10 Super Bowls in a row. Now, it’s time to make sure the Saints don’t cheat and beat my Philadelphia Eagles again like they did last time they played, so I got this package of items that will help me destroy the Saints!

Emmitt: Saints, why you tryin’ to destroy all teams not name the Eagle? He only tryin’ to win the game, but you always tryin’ to kill everybody like Wild B. Coyote try to kill Running Bird Penguin.

Reilly: That’s Wile E. Coyote, Emmitt. Please don’t disparage my heroes. Wile E. is where I got my inspiration. I even ordered from the Acme Company. Look at what I got. I have an anvil to drop on Drew Brees’ head, and I have this paint-and-brick package, where I’ll build a brick wall and paint a fake field, so Alvin Kamara runs into it! Muhahahahaha!

Tollefson: Hey Kevin, when you’re done with the anvil, can I borrow it? One of the women I’ve enslaved has been mouthy lately. I keep telling her to unclog my toilet naked, and she says she wants to wear a shirt. The nerve!

Reilly: Tolly, you’re disgusting with your naked women. Who in their right mind would want to see women naked? Not me. Mother says that’s not allowed!

Fouts: Kevin, since you have paint, let’s talk about what my favorite colors are. I promised I’d talk about this last week, but I forgot. Blue is my favorite because it’s the color of the sky and the ocean. My second-favorite color is green. That’s because green is the color of green apples, but not red apples. The difference between green apples and red apples is very important, and most people don’t know it. Green apples are green, while red apples are red. It’s a shame that blue apples aren’t blue. This is because blue apples don’t exist in this reality. Where I’m from, blue apples aren’t blue either. That’s because blue apples in my reality are yellow. I’ll have Part 2 of this after the next break.

Wolfley: DAN, I HATE WHEN I GO TO THE SUPERMARKET AND TRY TO FIND BLUE APPLES, AND THEN I FORGET THEY ARE YELLOW. WHY DON’T PEOPLE CALL THESE YELLOW APPLES? I FIND THIS EXTREMELY FRUSTRATING AND ANNOYING.

Reilly: What are you idiots talking about? Guys, I gave our sideline reporter the anvil to drop on Drew Brees’ head. Kareem, how’s it going down there?

Kareem Hunt: Kevin, I have to apologize. When you gave me the anvil and told me to drop it on Drew Brees’ head, I assumed you meant drop it on the cheerleader who is most likely to give Drew Brees head after the game. She currently has a concussion and is out for the game, Kevin.

Reilly: YOU IDIOT! I TOLD YOU TO DROP IT ON DREW BREES’ HEAD, NOT SOME STUPID CHEERLEADER! NEW DADDY, CAN YOU GIVE ME YOUR CREDIT CARD SO I CAN BUY A NEW ANVIL!?

Cutler: Advil? Good idea. You’re talking too much again and giving me a headache.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, I need an anvil to eliminate Drew Brees, pleeeassseee give me an anviiiilllll!

Cutler: Whoops, just took some Advil PM instead of regular Advil. Can someone wake me up when the game’s over? I’m going to put in ear plugs so the kid stops annoying me with his crying.

Reilly: WAAAHHHH NEWWWW DAAADDDDY WWWAAAHHHHH!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, look what I have here, Kevin. It’s a credit card, Kevin. Just go to Acme.com, Kevin, and enter in your order, Kevin. That looks like a nice, shiny anvil, Kevin. Time to buy it, Kevin. Now, I’m about to give you the credit card numbers, Kevin. These are digits, Kevin. Not credit card letters, Kevin. Credit cards don’t have letters, Kevin. Only numbers, Kevin. Unless you’re talking about names, Kevin. Speaking of names, Kevin, don’t enter my name, Kevin. I’ll do it myself, Kevin. Don’t ask me why, Kevin. It’s a secret to everybody, Kevin.

Reilly: Thank you, thank you, thank you, Charles Davis! I wish you were New Daddy instead of real New Daddy, who just sleeps all day!

Charles Davis (inaudibly): Be careful what you wish for, Kevin, for it might become a reality, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

Meanwhile, in an abandoned warehouse in North Philly…

Herm: C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-COLD! W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-WAIT, WHY IS MY C-C-C-C-C-C-CREDIT CARD BEING CH-CH-CH-CH-CH-CH-CH-CHARGED F-F-F-F-F-F-FOR AN ANVIL P-P-P-P-P-P-P-PURCHASE?

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Eagles were absolutely throttled the last time they visited New Orleans, losing 48-7. However, there are four reasons to believe that this won’t happen again, two on each side of the ball.

Jordan Hicks’ absence was one of the major reasons why the Saints had so much success offensively against Philadelphia. The Eagles struggled against the run without Hicks, but his return has given the team an enormous boost. They’re up to ninth in DVOA run defense, thanks to Hicks, who is the heart and soul of Philadelphia’s defense. Having Hicks on the field for the rematch will make New Orleans’ ground attack far less effective than it was in the Week 11 matchup in which Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for 174 rushing yards.

The second reason why the Eagles will have a better chance this time is the improved play of the secondary. This is still a liability for the Eagles, but they’ve been better against the pass to close out the year because Avonte Maddox and Rasul Douglas have stepped up and replaced injured defensive backs effectively. It’ll still be difficult for the Eagles contain Drew Brees and Michael Thomas, but I doubt we’ll see the Saints go most of the game without punting again.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: As mentioned, there are two reasons to expect the Eagles to be better in the rematch on this side of the ball as well. The first is quarterback play. It was clear there was something wrong with Carson Wentz beyond his knee injury in the Week 11 loss. Wentz was uncharacteristically awful, going 19-of-33 for 156 yards. Wentz hasn’t been great this year, but he struggled in his final games of 2018, thanks to his troubled back. Nick Foles has been better, particularly in the clutch. Aside from one careless throw into the end zone, he played very well against the Bears, who had the top defense in the NFL. Chicago was second in DVOA pass defense, while New Orleans is 22nd in that regard.

The second reason why the Eagles will be better in this game is that Jason Kelce, presumably, will play all 60 minutes. If you’ve forgotten, or quite simply didn’t know in the first place, Philadelphia’s Pro Bowl center exited in the very early stages of the loss to the Saints with an injury. The Eagles, as a result, couldn’t pass protect at all. Kelce is Philadelphia’s best offensive lineman, and he plays what I would argue to be the second-most important position on offense. There’s a long track record of teams struggling without their premier center if they don’t have a viable backup, so his injury played a huge part in the Eagles being able to muster just seven points.

The Eagles will definitely post more than seven on the scoreboard in the rematch, though it’s worth noting that they likely won’t be able to establish the run. While the Saints are 22nd against the pass, they are third in DVOA run defense.

RECAP: I’ve given you four more reasons why the Eagles will be more competitive in their second trip to New Orleans. However, those all had to do with personnel on the field. I can give you fifth and sixth reasons that go beyond the matchups:

5. The Saints haven’t played a good game since Thanksgiving when they beat the Falcons at home, and even that wasn’t a convincing victory. Had the Falcons not turned the ball over three times in the red zone, that would’ve been a far closer score. Since that win, the Saints lost to the Cowboys, struggled to put the Buccaneers and Panthers away and then nearly lost to a Steeler team that had trouble beating the Bengals the following week. Granted, only one of those games was at home, but the fact remains that the Saints did not play well to close out the season, and now they’ll be taking the field after effectively having two weeks off. I wonder if there will be some rust.

6. The Eagles certainly have the motivational edge. As former Super Bowl champions, they’ll feel completely disrespected that they’re the greatest underdogs this week. They’ll bring their underdog masks with them to New Orleans. It’ll be an “us against the world” type feel to this game, and the Eagles have proven themselves to be most dangerous in those circumstances.

These are all reasons why I think the Eagles are the right side. That said, the Saints could easily get their crap together and win by double digits. They’re the best team in the NFL, and the Superdome provides an awesome home-field advantage. With that in mind, I’m going to limit this play to two units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing new to add here, as there have been no sharp betting action or surprises on the injury report. Perhaps this will change by Saturday. I’m still two units on the Eagles.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s not ideal that Jason Peters has been on the injury report with a quad injury. If Peters is ruled out, I’m going to drop the unit count on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t understand why the Chargers were so terrible today, but it seems like it was a huge mistake to fade great coaches with an extra week to prepare. Sean Payton qualifies as a great coach, so with that fact, as well as Jason Peters not being 100 percent, I’d like to not bet the Eagles. It’s a bit late to take the wager completely off, so I don’t want to do that, but as a compromise, I’m going to drop this to one unit. The best number is +8 -105 at Bookmaker.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles, knowing no one will give them a chance, will bring the underdog masks to New Orleans. They also vividly remember the 48-7 beatdown.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 51% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Eagles are 32-19 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Saints are 44-34 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 9-13 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean Payton. ???

Opening Line: Saints -7.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 19 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Eagles 24
Eagles +8 -105 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$100
Over 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 20, Eagles 1

Week 19 NFL Picks – Saturday Games
Colts at Chiefs, Cowboys at Rams

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

I wrote earlier that I was going to bet the Chargers and Colts to win the Super Bowl. I believe that the four best teams in the NFL are the Saints, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts. I have the Saints at 18/1 and Chiefs at 35/1 from the summer, so I want to hedge a bit with the Chargers and Colts. If I get one of the Chiefs, Chargers or Colts in the Super Bowl and the Saints don’t make it, I can hedge again. Clearly, this is a fade of the Patriots and Rams, both of whom aren’t as good as people think they are.

I looked around, and the best Super Bowl future props I could find are on 5Dimes. I’ll add these results to the end-of-year total when the Super Bowl is over along with the NFL Win Total and Super Bowl Props from the summer (except for two of the four units I had on Panthers +6.5 over Steelers; I already deducted two from my Week 10 results.)

Chargers to win the Super Bowl: 10.25/1 – 1 Unit (5Dimes)

Colts to win the Super Bowl: 14/1 – 1 Unit (5 Dimes)

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
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2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
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2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)