NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2020

New York Jets (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
Line: Colts by 11.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 27, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Philip Rivers had an uneven debut for the Colts, moving the chains well but costing the team with two bad turnovers. He was much better against the Vikings, with his only turnover being the result of a drop by his backup tight end.

Rivers didn’t have the toughest matchup against the Vikings, but this one seems even easier. The Jets’ defense is a shell of its former self, thanks to the Jamal Adams trade and C.J. Mosley’s decision to opt out. The Jets already had major problems at cornerback and the edge rush, so Rivers should have no problem moving the chains in this contest.

Rookie Jonathan Taylor figures to turn in a great performance as well. We saw what the 49ers did to the Jets, as they generated three bursts of 55 yards or more if one of Raheem Mostert’s long runs wasn’t called back due to a hold. Indianapolis’ elite offensive line won’t have any issues opening up big lanes for Taylor.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold wasn’t quite as bad last week as he was in the opener, but he still showed no signs that he’s developing well under Adam Gase. Of course, it’s not like he has much help, given that most of his top weapons were sidelined with injuries.

Jamison Crowder’s status is huge for that reason. If Crowder is out, Darnold will be down his top receiver in addition to Le’Veon Bell, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims. The Colts don’t have a great secondary, but I still wonder how Darnold will move the chains with his pedestrian supporting cast.

Besides, it’s not like the Colts need to worry about a running threat out of the Jets’ backfield. Frank Gore is the starter for reasons unknown. This seems to be a wet dream of Adam Gase’s, but it won’t translate to any sort of success in real life.

RECAP: The Jets are the worst team in the NFL, so only a fool would bet on them. However, this doesn’t mean that they’re an auto fade either. This spread is very high, so if Darnold has Crowder at his disposal, there’s a chance for a back-door cover.

The threat of the back door, as well as the high public money on the Colts, are the two reasons I’m not betting the host. That said, I’m still picking the Colts to cover, and I may reconsider my stance on the non-wager if Crowder is sidelined.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread shot up a point Thursday morning, moving to -11.5. I wonder if that means Jamison Crowder will be sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: Wow, the Jets’ injury report is even worse than I thought. Not only does Sam Darnold have no one to throw to – Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims are all out – he could also be down two offensive linemen. George Fant is declared out already, while Connor McGovern barely practiced all week. The Colts should dominate this game, so I’m increasing the unit count.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was hoping this line would drop a bit. Professional money is not going to come in on a double-digit favorite, so the sportsbooks will be looking for some sharp money to come in on the Jets. The problem is that the Jets are a dumpster fire.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s disappointing to see Connor McGovern active for the Jets, but New York still has way too many injuries to compete with Indianapolis. I like selling a half a point to get to -12 -106 at Bookmaker.

Carolina Panthers (0-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)
Line: Chargers by 6. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 27, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers fooled everyone, including master prepper Andy Reid, by starting Justin Herbert over Tyrod Taylor in Week 2. This wasn’t done intentionally, but I’d still like to believe the Chargers had this devious strategy of tricking everyone, including Herbert. It almost panned out, but Anthony Lynn’s craven decision to punt on fourth-and-1 in overtime ruined a potential upset.

Still, the Chargers have plenty to feel optimistic about with Herbert. Unlike Tyrod Taylor, he’s a real quarterback, and he made some spectacular throws in his debut. He was also guilty of some blunders, but that’s to be expected from a rookie, especially one making his first start. Herbert should be able to pick up where he left off against the Panthers in his first planned start. Carolina’s secondary is horrific, so Herbert will have plenty of opportunities to shred the Panthers by hooking up with his talented play-makers.

The Chargers’ ability to run the ball will depend on what the injury report looks like. Kawann Short’s absence last week made the matchups for Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones more favorable, so the same thing will happen with Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley. At the very least, Ekeler will be able to abuse a Luke Kuechly-less linebacking corps as a receiver out of the backfield.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Teddy Bridgewater is not the most gifted quarterback in the NFL, but he’s supposed to be a careful game manager who avoids mistakes. This was not the case against the Buccaneers, as Bridgewater was guilty of two interceptions and a lost fumble.

More turnovers are likely to come for Bridgewater in this very difficult matchup. The Chargers have a defense that limited Patrick Mahomes to just nine points through three quarters. They were able to do this by pressuring him very heavily, all while smothering his receivers. If Mahomes couldn’t succeed against the Chargers, how will Bridgewater?

The Panthers would’ve had a fighting chance if they got Christian McCaffrey in space against the Chargers’ linebackers, but the star runner is sidelined. Mike Davis is a fine backup, but he’s not the difference-maker Carolina needs.

RECAP: This spread opened -7.5, yet it’s been bet down quickly to -6.5. The sharps are all over the Panthers.

I’m not sure why. The only reason I can think of is that the Chargers are coming off a tough overtime loss and have to play the Buccaneers next week. There’s a chance they’ll be unfocused, but then again, they might be encouraged that they just went toe to toe with the defending Super Bowl champions with their quarterback making his first start.

The threat of a letdown is why I won’t bet the Chargers, but I’ll still be picking them for office pool purposes. Perhaps we’ll get some major injury news; that’s the only other reason I can think of why there’s been so much smart money on the underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert will start, which makes me wonder why this line didn’t go back up to -7.5. Perhaps there will be something on the injury report that we’re not aware of.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have important injuries in their front sevens. Melvin Ingram and Justin Jones will be sidelined for the Chargers, while Kawann Short will be absent for Carolina. I’m 51%-49% leaning Chargers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still 51-49 on the Chargers. I’m eager to see if the sharps come in on the Panthers in an attempt to fade the Justin Herbert hype.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Russell Okung is out for the Panthers, and yet this spread has dropped. As I guessed, the sharps have come in on Carolina +6. I don’t know why, but that’s what they did. Maybe they’re tilting after the Giants and Bears disasters.

Detroit Lions (0-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
Line: Cardinals by 5.5. Total: 55.5.
Sunday, Sept. 27, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: My dad called me on Monday and declared that Kyler Murray is the best quarterback in the NFL. Murray has been incredible in two games this year, though I wouldn’t go as far as my dad did.

Murray has greatly benefited from DeAndre Hopkins’ arrival, which has given him a plethora of receivers at his disposal. This is bad news for the Lions if they continue to have injury issues in their secondary. They were missing two of their top three cornerbacks last week, so they had no chance of stopping Aaron Rodgers. They’ll have similar problems against Murray unless the status of their corners changes.

Of course, the Lions will have to worry about Kenyan Drake as well. We just saw what Aaron Jones did to them. Drake figures to have great success as well, given that Detroit lost some serious talent on the defensive line this offseason.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions also have injury concerns on this side of the ball. They were down two starting offensive linemen last week, missing Halapouli Vaitai and Joe Dahl. This made moving the chains very difficult for them. They got out to a 14-3 lead, but barely did anything offensively after that.

Being down two offensive linemen would hurt against the Cardinals, as Arizona would be able to pressure Matthew Stafford consistently. Stafford will at least have Kenny Golladay back from injury, in all likelihood, though the No. 1 receiver will return to find himself in a tough matchup against Patrick Peterson.

Running will be difficult on the Cardinals as well, especially if multiple linemen are out of the game. Still, it would help if the Lions ditched their misguided Adrian Peterson plan and instead focused on giving more touches to their talented, young backs.

RECAP: we’ll have to see what happens with the Lions per the injury report. If they have the same sort of issues as last week, the Cardinals will be able to cover this easily. Conversely, if they get back a cornerback and an offensive lineman, they’ll be much more formidable. They’ll also be available for good value at +6.

I’m going to mark down the Cardinals for zero units right now, but I could see myself betting on either side depending on what we can unearth via the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve gotten lots of questions asking me why this spread isn’t higher. And this was when the line was -6! There’s been sharp money on the Lions, as the pros might know that Detroit will be getting many of its injured players back into the lineup.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions will once again be down two of their top three cornerbacks, which is going to be very problematic against all of Arizona’s receiving talent. However, the Lions will be getting back Kenny Golladay and Halapouli Vaitai, so Arizona doesn’t look as appealing as it did earlier in the week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m very confused as to why this spread is so low. An even worse sign is that Pinnacle, the sharpest book you’ll find anywhere, has -5 available at -108 vig. They want money on Arizona. Something’s up, so I’d be careful with this one. I’m cutting the unit count in half.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kenny Golladay is active, which should really help Detroit’s offense. However, the Lions are still missing several cornerbacks, which will hurt against Kyler Murray. Despite this, the spread is still very low, which is suspicious. The best line is -5.5 -105 at Bookmaker.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Denver Broncos (0-2)
Line: Buccaneers by 6. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Sept. 27, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 is underway! How does Emmitt react to learning about Covid-19? And is there hope that he can stop it?

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Tom Brady is getting lots of flak for how performed against the Panthers. Everyone is referencing the horrible pass he threw to Justin Watson on the long, flea-flicker completion that should’ve gone for a touchdown. Brady also tossed an interception toward Rob Gronkowski when he was hit upon release. Everyone is focusing on those two plays, but I thought Brady played very well otherwise. He showed improved chemistry with Mike Evans, which was the most important thing.

With the Brady-Evans connection strengthening, and Chris Godwin returning from his concussion, the Buccaneers should be more explosive on this side of the ball this week. The Broncos have some major injury issues on both sides of the ball, and I can’t see them doing much to stop the two dynamic wideouts, especially if A.J. Bouye is sidelined again.

The Broncos will also have more trouble getting to Brady than they did with Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers were missing two offensive linemen in Week 2, while Tampa’s blocking unit is completely healthy.

DENVER OFFENSE: Drew Lock is out for a few weeks with a shoulder injury, meaning Jeff Driskel will make his first start in a Denver uniform. Driskel has a nice arm, but his accuracy is dreadful, and he also processes information way too slowly. This will get him killed against some of the better defenses, and I’d say we can include the Buccaneers in that regard. Tampa Bay’s defensive line is deadly, so Driskel could be forced into some turnovers under pressure.

Driskel won’t have his top receiver, Courtland Sutton, at his disposal, so the Buccaneers will be catching a break because they’ll have to deal with a diminished receiving corps. Both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson eclipsed the century mark last week, so Tampa will be happy to catch that break.

This is all horrible news for the Broncos because they won’t be able to run effectively. The Buccaneers have the best ground defense in the NFL, so Melvin Gordon won’t find any running room.

RECAP: The Broncos seem to have too many injuries to stay competitive with the Buccaneers. They were lucky to be in a close game last week with the Steelers, but they probably won’t be as fortunate this time.

I’d like to see the injury report to get more information on the Broncos’ injury woes, but I can’t imagine not betting at least a couple of units on the Buccaneers. That said, I don’t want to go too crazy, as there’s an obscene amount of public action on the visitor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line hasn’t budged off -6, which isn’t a surprise. This is still a small play on Tampa for me.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for more Denver injuries, but there’s nothing beyond what we already know. This will drop to a one-unit wager.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll see what happens with the inactives, but this will likely be a one-unit play on the Buccaneers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s so much money on the Buccaneers, but this line hasn’t moved. The sharps are betting the Broncos, but I like Tampa for one unit. The best line is -6 -110 mostly across the board, but if you like Denver, you can get +6.5 -110 at Bovada.

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
Line: Seahawks by 5.5. Total: 56.5.
Sunday, Sept. 27, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Annoying Kids in My Neighborhood, which includes a Romulan!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott had quite the comeback against the Falcons. All hope seemed to be lost, but he was tremendous down the stretch. I’ve been critical of Prescott, but he deserves credit for the amazing and unlikely victory.

That said, Prescott was battling one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, so this is a much more difficult matchup. The Seahawks have been aided by the Jamal Adams trade, and they’ll be better with Quandre Diggs back from his ejection. Prescott will be behind the eight ball if he’s missing multiple two offensive linemen again. That was the case against the Falcons, as they missed their two starting tackles, La’el Collins and Tyron Smith.

The Cowboys will need Smith to return because running on the Seahawks already seems to be difficult. The Seahawks are better against the run than the pass, so they should be able to keep Ezekiel Elliott in check, especially if the two tackles are sidelined.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson is playing on an MVP level, which makes it especially remarkable that he has yet to receive an MVP vote throughout his entire career. If he continues to play this way, he’ll win this year.

Wilson will have a chance to continue his onslaught against the Cowboys, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Aside from DeMarcus Lawrence, they don’t have anyone who can consistently pressure the quarterback, so Wilson will have plenty of time to find his dynamic weapons for long gains. And speaking of those weapons, both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have favorable matchups against the poor Dallas cornerbacks. Metcalf did well against Stephon Gilmore, so the Cowboys won’t stand a chance against him.

The Cowboys aren’t very good against the run either, thanks to Leighton Vander Esch’s injury. Chris Carson will run effectively, and he’ll pick up decent yardage as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: Let me know if you’ve heard this before, but my pick will be decided upon the injury report. If the Cowboys are missing two starting offensive linemen once again, I’ll definitely be betting the Seahawks. Seattle is a much better team to begin with, and it would have a huge advantage over the Cowboys if both Smith and Collins are sidelined.

Smith returning would change matters for sure, as it would open up a better opportunity for the Cowboys to achieve a back-door cover. I could see this going either way if the Cowboys are healthier, so I can’t wait to see what the injury report looks like.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m eager to see if Tyron Smith will play. Based on the lack of line movement, I’d say many others are awaiting the same news.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyron Smith hasn’t practiced all week, so I’m going to assume he’ll be out once again. This means Dallas will be down two blockers, two linebackers and two cornerbacks (Chidobe Awuzie, Anthony Brown) against what could be the best team in the NFC. I’m worried a bit about a back-door cover, but I’m very confident in the Seahawks covering.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Seahawks are my favorite side of the late slate. This is currently a four-unit pick, and I may go to five depending on the inactives.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of a negative surprise for the Seahawks, as Quinton Dunbar is inactive. However, the Cowboys will be without Tyron Smith for sure. DeMarcus Lawrence will play, so there will be no fifth unit. The best line I see is Seattle -5 -108 at Bookmaker.

Green Bay Packers (2-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-1)
Line: Saints by 3.5. Total: 52.5.
Sunday, Sept. 27, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

I’m going to devote this section to promoting things from myself, my friends and my readers. I promoted my book last week. This time, I’d like to talk about GameStop.

GameStop? The video game store? Yes, GameStop.

Because many of you are degenerate gamblers like me, you might be into buying and selling stocks. My No. 1 position right now is GameStop ($GME).

GameStop? The video game store? Yes, GameStop.

If you haven’t been following it at all, you might assume that it’s on the verge of bankruptcy. You may think of it as the next Blockbuster. This thesis couldn’t be further from the truth. GameStop has done a great job of re-branding itself. Its online sales have skyrocketed, showing an increase of 800 percent in Q2. GameStop now provides same-day delivery, giving it an edge over Amazon and Wal-Mart. It revamped its Web site and app. It’s on pace for a billion dollars in e-commerce in 2020.

If that’s not enough for you, Ryan Cohen has bought 10 percent of the company. Cohen was the former CEO of Chewy, and he sold it for $3 billion. Chewy became a great company because of its retail/e-commerce hybrid model, and Cohen plans on transforming GameStop into a similar type of entity to compete with Amazon like Chewy does. That’s why GameStop has been closing plenty of stores lately. The plan is to shut down the least-profitable establishments and keep the most-profitable ones open while increasing an online, same-day delivery presence.

Cohen is extremely selective in his investments, so his purchase of GameStop really turned some heads. I was already an investor, but that 10-percent stake made me even more convinced that the stock will skyrocket.

GameStop has to skyrocket, by the way. That’s because its short interest, as of this writing, is over 100 percent. This means that every single share of GameStop has been shorted. Short sellers did this because they thought bankruptcy was inevitable, but that thesis has been debunked. GameStop has nearly a billion dollars in cash, and its S&P credit rating just improved. With Playstation 5 and the new XBOX consoles set to be released within weeks, GameStop will rake in tons of money.

So, every short seller will either have to cover soon or continue paying a borrowing fee that is about 50 percent. It’ll be way too expensive for GameStop to continue to be shorted. It won’t go bankrupt, so the short sellers will have to pay 50-percent interest on it just to keep shorting it. This means that the shorts will be covering soon – especially if they get margin calls for the price rising too high – which will increase the price. A higher stock price means more shorts covering, which only further increases the price. Rinse, repeat.

This, as you may know, is called a short squeeze. We recently saw Kodak (KODK) go from $2 to $60 on a short squeeze, and yet that was only 10-percent shorted at the time. GameStop is 100-percent shorted! This could be the mother of all short squeezes. My conservative price target for GameStop is $50, but it could easily cross $100 if the short squeeze is as nuts as I think it will be.

All of this is why I’m heavily invested in GameStop. I wanted to share it with you because I’m very confident I will become rich from it, so maybe you can too.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I never would have expected the Raiders to provide the blueprint on how to beat the Saints’ defense after Tom Brady and the Buccaneers failed to score very much against it. However, Jon Gruden and Greg Olson deserve so much credit for a brilliant game plan that they utilized Monday night. They managed to attack Malcolm Jenkins relentlessly, as the perennial Pro Bowler has shown some unexpected signs of decline.

I imagine the Packers were paying attention to what occurred Monday night. Aaron Rodgers is out for blood this season after feeling disrespected by what his front office did during the 2020 NFL Draft. He’s playing better than he has in countless years despite having pedestrian downfield options at his disposal outside of Davante Adams. Marshon Lattimore will smother Adams, so Rodgers will have to look elsewhere. This might end up being a problem if the Packers drop six passes like they did versus Detroit.

The Packers will obviously attempt to establish Aaron Jones, who had a dominant Week 2 performance. The Saints are obviously better versus the run than the Lions are, but Jones should still have some success as a receiver against the middle of New Orleans’ defense.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Lions established a quick lead against the Packers last week by ramming the ball down their throat. Kerryon Johnson ran five times on the opening round plunging into the end zone on the fifth try. For reasons unknown, Johnson was given just three more carries for the rest of the afternoon.

I highly doubt Sean Payton will utilize a flawed game plan, especially off a loss. He’ll feed Alvin Kamara early and often, which should be a winning strategy. Kamara had a dominant performance against the Raiders, and he should continue to thrive against a Green Bay team that hasn’t really fixed its ground defense since its embarrassing performance against Raheem Mostert in the NFC Championship.

Drew Brees, meanwhile, will need to rebound off a pedestrian Monday night performance. The media is writing him off because of some air yards statistic, but I wouldn’t do so yet. Brees could rebound, though not having Michael Thomas is a problem.

RECAP: Everyone is writing off the Saints after just one game, quickly forgetting how they dominated the Buccaneers in Week 1. This spread, -3, is way down from the look-ahead line of -5.5, and the public is pounding the Packers.

I don’t understand how most bettors can have such short memories. Granted, the Saints played poorly Monday night, and Brees struggled, but this is nothing new for the team. The Saints are 2-14 against the spread in Weeks 1-2 over the past eight years. They always disappoint to start the year, and then they get better. I don’t see why that would change.

I’m big on the Saints, as I’ll probably be betting three or so units on them. It sucks to go against Rodgers, but this is a tough matchup for him, and I love fading heavily backed public dogs.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is in love with the Packers, as everyone quickly forgot how dominant the Saints were in Week 1 versus the Buccaneers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Michael Thomas and Davante Adams won’t play in this game. I’m still going with a three-unit Saints bet.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is -3.5 in some books, but -3 -120 is available at Bovada. I’m going to lock this in just in case the sharps move this to -3.5 everywhere.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Everything on the inactive list is a wash, as the Saints and Packers are both missing their top wideouts and one talented defensive lineman. I thought I was being smart by locking in -3 -120 in the morning, but there’s a -3 -115 available at Bovada. I still like the Saints for three units, as they’re a nice buy-low option off the Week 2 loss to the Raiders.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 54.5.
Monday, Sept. 28, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Baltimore, which is known as Charm City! I know that because my favorite TV show is Charmed, except Mother won’t let me watch it anymore because it contains witchcraft. Guys, no one cares about this game, so let’s talk about Charmed instead.

Emmitt: Jacob, I real disagreementness with you that no one cares about game. This game feature two of the bestest team in the football league of conferences, the Baltimore Chief and the Kansas City Colt.

Reilly: Emmitt, that’s not correct at all, but whatever. I- wait a second. The producers are teling me we have a guest for today’s broadcast. It’s none other than Charmed star Alyssa Milano!

Alyssa Milano: Hello, guys, thanks for letting me be a part of the broadcast!

Reilly: I- I- I- I- oh nooo, ohh noooo, my no-no special place is getting big and hard!

Tollefson: Alyssa, if you would cooperate with me and turn away while I smother you with this towel, that would be great.

Alyssa Milano: Guys, I’m here to talk about the true victims. Women in the Me Too movement!

Tollefson: Yes, Me Too! I care so much about women!

Alyssa Milano: Thank you, Don. Who else likes the Me Too Movement?

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I heard about people saying me too. You know what, me too, too. When someone says they’re getting a burger from McDonald’s, I say me too. Because when I say me too to a burger, that means that I want a burger too because the guy said he’s getting a burger, and then when I get a burger, it’s that I get a burger, too. Me too.

Alyssa Milano: See, this is the type of male chauvinist pig I loathe! You don’t care about women; only cheeseburgers!

Fouts: Alyssa, that’s not true. Jason said that he likes burgers; not cheeseburgers. And here’s the difference between burgers and cheeseburgers. Burgers have a bun, meat patty and fixings, whereas a cheeseburger has a bun, meat patty and fixings, as well as cheese. Now, you may not have noticed the difference, so let me recite that for you again. Burgers have a bun, meat patty and fixings, whereas a cheeseburger has a bun, meat patty and fixings, as well as cheese. Did you catch it the second time? No? Let me say it a third time. Burgers have-

Wolfley: DAN, YOU DON’T SEEM TO BE VERY AWARE OF THE SITUATION OF CHEESEBURGERS ON MY HOME PLANET. ON MY PLANET, HAMBURGERS HAVE CHEESE, AND CHEESEBURGERS DON’T HAVE CHEESE. I’D EXPLAIN IT TO YOU, BUT YOUR LIMITED EARTHLING BRAIN CAN’T POSSIBLY UNDERSTAND THE LOGIC BEHIND IT.

Reilly: Guys, it’s back down so I can talk again. Guys, let’s ask Alyssa who she’s going to vote for president this year. Mother is finally going to let me vote because we can do mail-on ballots. She wouldn’t let me vote normally before because she was afraid I’d be kidnapped at the voting place.

Alyssa Milano: I am endorsing Joe Biden for president!

Cutler: Isn’t that the dude who can’t talk and molested little girls on camera? I saw it on YouTube when I was pooping.

Alyssa Milano: Shut up, Jay Cutler! Go back to sleep!

Reilly: Oh, no! NO! HOW DARE YOU YELL AT NEW DADDY! HE’S MY NEW DADDY!

Alyssa Milano: Maybe I wouldn’t yell at him if he understood the true victims of Me Too. It doesn’t matter that Joe Biden molested little girls on camera because he’s a supporter of Me Too because he said so! Now, Kevin, if you disagree with me, I’ll call the cops even though I hate them! But if you agree with me, and I’ll whisper softly into your ear.

Reilly: ROCKET AGAIN, AND NOW IT’S WET! OH NO, IT’S WET!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’ve suffered a case of premature ejaculation, Kevin. But don’t worry, Kevin, because it happens to most men, Kevin. Pathetic, men, Kevin, but most men, Kevin, nonetheless, Kevin. Let’s talk about more sexual dysfunction, Kevin. What about erectile dysfunction, Kevin? Did you know that’s sometimes called impotence, Kevin? What do you think about male orgasmic disorder, Kevin? Let’s chat a bit about Priapism, Kevin. Kevin, can you name more sexual dysfunctions, Kevin? Maybe one you have, Kevin?

Reilly: CHARLES DAVIS, YOU KNOW QUITE WELL THAT MOTHER WON’T LET ME KISS GIRLS YET, SO MAYBE I HAVE KEVIN CAN’T KISS GIRLS SYNDROME!!!

Alyssa Milano: Eww, you’re talking about kissing girls? What are we, just objects to you? That’s it, I’m out of here!!!

Reilly: CHARLES DAVIS, YOU RUINED MY CHANCE TO GET A DATE WITH ALYSSA MILANO! WE WERE GOING TO GO TO THE MOVIES TOGETHER AND MOTHER WAS GOING TO DRIVE US AND PICK US UP, YOU JERK!!! We’ll be back after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson has made great strides this season as a passer. He was very raw in that department entering the NFL and was a bit better in that regard last year. It’s only been two games, but Jackson is definitely more effective when airing out the ball.

Jackson hasn’t been able to beat the Chiefs yet, but perhaps this improved aerial prowess will allow that to happen. The Chiefs still have some question marks in their secondary, as evidenced by their inability to contain Justin Herbert in his first start. Jackson has more than enough weapons to exploit the Chiefs’ defensive backfield and linebacking corps.

Speaking of the linebackers, I have concerns about the Chiefs being able to wrap up Jackson when he scrambles. Stopping the run will be difficult as well. This is ordinarily a problem, but the Ravens pound the rock better than anyone in the NFL.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes trailed in the fourth quarter during the Super Bowl, as Nick Bosa made his life extremely difficult. The other Bosa, Joey, had his turn this past Sunday. He and the rest of the Chargers’ front pummeled Mahomes throughout the afternoon, which would explain why the Chiefs had a single-digit point total entering the final frame.

Mahomes eventually overcame the pressure and led his team to victory, just as he did versus the 49ers. However, the point remained that the Chargers, like the 49ers, offered half the blueprint on how to defeat Mahomes: Pressure the hell out of him through three quarters. The other half is to put up enough points in the fourth quarter (or overtime) to survive. The 49ers and Chargers couldn’t do this, but the Ravens will be able to with Jackson.

The question remains, can the Ravens pressure Mahomes heavily without blitzing often? Considering how much the Ravens rely on the blitz, the answer is probably no, or at least it would have been last year. However, the Ravens added Calais Campbell during the offseason, so things might be different this time around.

RECAP: I can’t really find an edge in this game, though the sharps feel differently. The pros have been betting the Ravens so heavily that this line has moved to -3.5 in some sportsbooks. Going through key numbers is a huge deal.

As with the Chargers-Panthers game, I’m confused about the professional line movement because I’m not getting what they are seeing. Perhaps this is a double-revenge angle after the Chiefs beat the Ravens twice in Kansas City, or maybe there are some injuries we don’t know about yet.

I’m going to stick with the Chiefs, as getting a field goal with Mahomes seems appealing. However, I can’t say I’m too confident with this pick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is now -3.5 in most places, and yet I still don’t know why the sharp money is so in love with Baltimore.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still can’t figure out this game. I’m on the Chiefs, but I don’t understand why there’s so much sharp money on the Ravens.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I haven’t tried to figure out this game yet. I might come up with something on Monday, but I doubt it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to be lame and not bet this game. I don’t see a great reason to pull the trigger. My lean is with the Chiefs. I think the most likely results of this game are the Ravens winning by three and the Chiefs winning by three, and we’re getting both with Kansas City +3.5. However, there’s significant sharp money on the Ravens, and I can’t quite figure out why. Anyway, if you want to bet the Chiefs, you definitely want to pay up for +3.5, which you can do with -114 juice at Bookmaker. Conversely, if you like the Ravens, you need to get -3. The best -3 is with -120 vig at Bovada.