NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2022

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Line: Browns by 4.5. Total: 38.
Thursday, Sept. 22, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

Week 2 Analysis: We had another four-figure week, thanks to our September NFL Pick of the Month being a winner. I’ll continue to break down all the multi-unit picks each week:

Chargers, 3 units (win): I was going to chalk this up as our first bad beat of the season as a result of the pick-six at the 1-yard line, but Justin Herbert put together a miraculous back-door cover. I still have no idea why the Chargers didn’t kick a field goal on fourth down, but I’ll take it!

Jaguars, 3 units (win): It’s always nice to get an easy one.

Rams, 3 units (loss): Now, this was our first bad beat of the year. The Rams were up 28-3, but allowed some garbage-time touchdowns, including a blocked punt returned for six. Back-door covers happen, sure, but usually not via blocked punts.

49ers, 5 units (win): I was a bit worried when the Seahawks returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown, but the 49ers pulled through, despite the Trey Lance injury.

Cardinals, 5 units (win): Wow, what a win! I didn’t understand why the Cardinals fell behind so much in the first half, but they stormed back and not only got the cover; they won outright to get us a moneyline victory.

Packers, 4 units (win): We were unlucky in the Rams-Falcons game, but we were fortunate here because I think Justin Fields scored on that weird shotgun sneak at the end of the game.

Titans, 4 units (loss): I hate to make injury excuses, but I specifically mentioned Taylor Lewan as being crucial in this matchup because of his ability to protect against Von Miller, which Rams left tackle Joseph Noteboom could not do. Well, Lewan suffered an injury on the very first offensive snap! Maybe the Titans wouldn’t have covered anyhow, but they had no chance without Lewan.

Eagles, 8 units (win): Congrats to those who followed!

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There was sharp money bringing the line from -3.5 to -5. The reason for this, as one handicapper explained: “Everyone hates Mitch.” Mitchell Trubisky played a terrible game against the Patriots, and he doesn’t have a bright outlook in this contest. He’s going to see plenty of pressure from Myles Garrett, who has a tremendous edge over Pittsburgh left tackle Dan Moore.

Trubisky also has to worry about his receivers being covered well by Cleveland’s cornerbacks. Diontae Johnson will have his work cut out for him against Denzel Ward, so Trubisky will have to target his other wideouts and Pat Freiermuth more often. Given his expected poor protection, it might be difficult for him to do that, especially with the projected heavy 19-mph winds.

Making matters worse for the Steelers, Najee Harris is hobbled. Harris hasn’t looked like quite himself this year, and he’s not going to be much better on a short week. The Browns are stout against the run, so Harris will continue to struggle.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Jacoby Brissett, believe it or not, was one of the NFL’s top performers per advanced metrics last week. He didn’t have the mega stats like Tua Tagovailoa, but he was highly efficient and would have led the Browns to a victory had Nick Chubb not foolishly scored. Brissett would ordinarily have a tough matchup against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh’s pass defense has taken a huge hit in the wake of T.J. Watt’s torn pectoral. Mac Jones, whose offensive line had huge problems heading into Week 2, had plenty of time in the pocket, and Brissett should have the same luxury, though it may not matter, given the windy conditions.

That said, Brissett may not have to do much. Pittsburgh’s run defense is a weak unit, so perhaps Chubb will redeem himself with a huge game. I don’t trust the Steeler linebackers to cover Kareem Hunt as a receiver out of the backfield either.

RECAP: I was hoping for a better line after the Browns lost to the Jets, but the sharps made sure that wouldn’t happen. As mentioned, they’re on Cleveland, and it’s obvious why. The Browns are a superior team, and they matchup well with the Steelers, especially when factoring in the projected 19-mph winds. Sure, they lost to the Jets, but they would have prevailed had Chubb not scored. I don’t think they even prepared for the Jets because they were looking ahead to this matchup. With the Steelers struggling to run the ball, you have to wonder how they’ll move the chains.

It sucks that we lost some line value, but I’m still willing to bet a couple of units on Cleveland. I’ll do so with anything below -6.

Our Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was worried about Jack Conklin and Joel Bitonio missing this game, but they’re both expected to play, as is Myles Garrett, who missed some practice time. I was going to reduce my units if some of those players were out, but I’ll keep this at two.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Browns at -3.5 and -4, but not at -4.5. I still like Cleveland at -4.5, with the best vig out there being -106 at FanDuel. I’m going to place a half-unit on the under as well, given that there will be 20-30 mph winds in this game.

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I was worried about Mac Jones and his back spasms last week, which is why I laid off betting the Patriots. The game ended up pushing, but Jones played better than expected. He had some poor throws and tossed a bad interception, but many of his passes were on the money, especially when targeting Jakobi Meyers.

Jones, however, was fortunate to battle a Steeler defense that had trouble applying pressure with T.J. Watt sidelined. The Ravens failed to harass Tua Tagovailoa last week despite the Dolphins missing a right tackle, so that bodes well for Jones. It’ll also help if the Ravens continue to deal with some injury issues in the secondary. I believe Bill Belichick will find a way to exploit those, assuming there are any.

One thing the Patriots won’t be able to do is run the ball, as Baltimore thrives in that area. Damien Harris may not be able to play, though Rhamondre Stevenson might actually be an upgrade.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Belichick is obviously a defensive mastermind, but rushing quarterbacks have always given his teams problems. That said, Lamar Jackson didn’t fare all that well the last time he battled Belichick. He was a solid 24-of-34 for 249 yards, two touchdowns and an interception with 55 rushing yards, but he didn’t dominate the game, as his team scored only 17 points. Then again, that 2020 contest was played in heavy rain, so things could be different in better conditions.

It’s also worth considering that Baltimore’s offensive line was a mess in that game. There’s a chance Ronnie Stanley will return this week, which will give Jackson a much-needed boost. He’ll have more success connecting with Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely, all of whom performed well Sunday.

Like the Patriots, the Ravens won’t be able to run well when Jackson’s not doing it. J.K. Dobbins isn’t healthy, and Baltimore doesn’t have another quality, healthy running back on the roster. This will open up a back-door possibility, as Baltimore won’t be able to run out the clock well.

RECAP: I don’t have a strong lean on this game. I think the spread is about what it should be. The advance line was -3 as well. Baltimore matches up well with New England because of the Patriots’ struggles with scrambling quarterbacks. However, the Ravens, who have trouble holding leads because they can’t run the ball, might be looking ahead to their matchup against the Bills next week.

That said, there would be a greater chance of Baltimore looking ahead if it were coming off a victory. Given that the Ravens blew a colossal lead in the fourth quarter, they might be a more focused than usual. Thus, I’m stuck with a pick that has no confidence. I’m going to side with the Patriots because I believe this line should be Baltimore -2, but that’s not much of an edge.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacob and I disagreed on this game. If you want to hear his take, check out our Week 3 NFL Picks show.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t make sense of this game, as I can argue well for both sides. I’m sticking with the Patriots, which is the side the sharps are betting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: With all the sharp action coming in on the Patriots, I considered a unit on them at +3 -115 at FanDuel, but Jakobi Meyers is out. Meyers isn’t a great receiver, but he’s Mac Jones’ favorite receiver.

Buffalo Bills (2-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Line: Bills by 4.5. Total: 53.5.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 1-4 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bengals -7

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chiefs -7

Ravens -3

Bengals -4.5

49ers -1

None of this should be surprising, except for maybe the Bengals. I thought the public would be down on them after the loss to Dallas..

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Outside of some short-yardage snafus, Josh Allen was incredible Monday night. This was despite Allen missing his No. 2 receiver, Gabriel Davis. Allen did whatever he wanted against Tennessee’s helpless defense.

Allen won’t face much resistance in this game, especially if Davis returns. It’s still early, but the Dolphins rank third-worst in the NFL in terms of pressure rate. They just allowed Lamar Jackson to torch their secondary, so imagine what Allen will do.

The Dolphins will have to resort to blitzing to get to Allen, which could spell trouble for them. When blitzed this year, Allen is 13-of-19 for 180 yards and two touchdowns.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Bills have devastated both offenses they’ve battled thus far. Limiting the Titans to seven points wasn’t difficult, especially with Lewan injured. However, what Buffalo did to the Rams in Week 1 was incredible, especially after seeing the Rams bounce back with a 28-point effort before taking their foot off the gas versus Atlanta.

The Dolphins don’t have an offensive line at full strength, so the Bills will take advantage of this situation. Tua Tagovailoa didn’t see much pressure from the Ravens last week, allowing him to torch Baltimore’s defense with his special receivers. Tagovailoa will be under way more heat this week.

That said, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will win their matchups. The Bills are down a couple of cornerbacks, so this could allow Miami to engineer some points late in the game, perhaps allowing them to achieve another back-door cover.

RECAP: This is another tough game to handicap. I can make strong cases for both teams. For the Bills, they’re the best team in the NFL, and the Dolphins could be a bit gassed after their epic fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens. For the Dolphins, their receivers will be battling an injury-ravaged secondary, and they’ll be playing against a team wearing dark jerseys on a hot and humid Miami day. Not only that, but the Bills are coming off a short week.

I’m leaning toward the Dolphins, but that’s a 51/49 edge. Buffalo could be down numerous starters after Mitch Morse and Dane Jackson got hurt Monday night. It’ll be playing on a short week in a sauna, and its lacking running game could allow a back-door cover. That said, I’d need +7 to entertain a bet on the Dolphins.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The line has moved to -6, so the Dolphins look a bit more appealing. I don’t know why the spread has risen, but I’m sure there are some injury we don’t know about. What we do know is that Micah Hyde missed Wednesday’s practice after going to the hospital for his neck injury.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps bet the Dolphins down to +5.5, probably because the Bills could be down as many as nine starters on a short week. They’re definitely going to be missing five (Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Tre’Davious White, Dane Jackson, Micah Hyde), and the other four could be Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, Mitch Morse, and Jordan Poyer. This makes the Dolphins look incredibly appealing until seeing that Terron Armstead failed to practice all week. The Dolphins are already down right tackle Austin Jackson, so I don’t know what they’re going to do about Buffalo’s pass rush if Armstead is unavailable. I’ll be very interested to look at the inactives list come Sunday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The final injury count is that the Bills are missing seven starters in this game: Mitch Morse, Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Tre’Davious Whie, Dane Jackson, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. For the Dolphins, Terron Armstead will play, which is huge. The sharps are betting the Dolphins heavily, and I like Miami now as well. I’m betting two units on them. The best line is +4.5 at every sportsbook except Bookmaker. If you like the Bills, Bookmaker has -4 listed.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at New York Jets (1-1)
Line: Bengals by 6. Total: 45.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here.



Imagine being so racist against Native Americans that you become enraged upon seeing their beloved symbols.

Logan Mueller wasn’t the only modern-day conquistador who contacted me this week:



What a fail. No one goes up to the ticket window and says, “I want $X on Team Y.” Rather, “Can I get the number for 263? OK, can I have $200 on that?”

This Puddles guy asked me what the Redskins’ Web site URL is, and I told him they don’t have one because they sold it for pennies on the dollar. This ensued:



These people really want to remove Native American imagery so badly that they go out of their way to reply to me or comment on my site. I think it’s disgusting how racist they are, but hey, this is a free country, so you’re allowed to say whatever you please.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow’s 2022 season hasn’t exactly gone as planned. Following a five-turnover performance against the Steelers, Burrow was sacked six times in Dallas. He tried his hardest to lead a comeback, but after a tying drive, he failed to do anything on the ensuing possession, setting up Dallas on a short field for the winning score.

It’s puzzling as to why Burrow is seeing so much pressure after the front office found three upgrades on the offensive line this spring. Both tackles have struggled thus far, but Jonah Williams and La’el Collins are both talented players who should bounce back at some point. That could happen this week, as Burrow won’t be facing relentless pressure for the first time. The Jets do not have a T.J. Watt or Micah Parsons. It’s still early, but New York has the sixth-worst pressure rate in the NFL this year.

The Bengals should be able to run effectively as well. Nick Chubb just scored three touchdowns on the Jets, so Joe Mixon figures to have a rebound performance.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets miraculously accumulated 31 points in Cleveland this past Sunday. “Miraculously” is the correct word, as the Jets needed Chubb to score an unnecessary touchdown. Had Chubb just run out of bounds, the game would have been over with the Jets notching 17 points, and no one would be asking how Cincinnati would stop Joe Flacco and his talented receivers.

If you want the answer to that question, the Bengals have a sound pass rush and will rattle Flacco. The Bengals also have quality players in their secondary who will be able to limit Garrett Wilson and the other wideouts.

Flacco won’t be able to rely on his ground attack either. The Bengals have limited Najee Harris and Ezekiel Elliott thus far, so they should be able to restrict both Breece Hall and Michael Carter.

RECAP: This spread makes no sense. The Bengals were -7 against the Cowboys last week, yet they’re just -4.5 at the Jets now. This is saying that the Jets, arguably the worst team in the NFL, are 2.5 points better than Dallas. Uhh… what?

Now, I know it’s a bit more complicated than that, but this line is way off my projection, which is Cincinnati -9.5. It’s also short of the advance spread, which was -6. The Bengals might be seen as toxic right now because they lost to the Steelers and Cooper Rush-led Cowboys, but they’re still a great team. I’d be shocked if they don’t right the ship and rebound. They played sluggishly at Dallas, but Burrow is now coming off two defeats, so I expect him to play much better. I’ll be betting four or five units on Cincinnati.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m so shocked by the betting action on the Bengals because I’ve heard square bettors talk about how the Jets will pull the upset. That makes me want to bet more units on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bengals rose to -6, which is a good sign for their chances of covering. La’el Collins may not play, but he hasn’t performed well thus far, so perhaps it’ll be a blessing in disguise. I don’t want to lose out on the -6, so I’m going to lock this in now. The best line is -6 -110 at Bookmaker and BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were in on the Bengals earlier in the week, and now the public has hopped on the bandwagon. This line has risen to -6.5 in most places, but you can still get -6 -114 at Bookmaker.

New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)
Line: Saints by 2. Total: 41.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I don’t think it’s a guarantee that Jameis Winston will start this game. He probably will, but Winston is dealing with some severe back issues. This clearly affected him against the Buccaneers. Winston couldn’t get everything he wanted to on some throws, which led to a trio of interceptions and just a three-point output.

It’s unlikely that Winston will get completely healthy in a span of only a week, so he could continue to struggle against a Carolina pass defense that has performed well thus far. The Panthers have a relentless pass rush, which could cause problems for Winston, who is missing his left tackle.

It’ll help Winston if he’ll have Alvin Kamara back from injury. Kamara’s absence was enormous versus the Buccaneers. If Kamara returns, he’ll be able to produce against a mediocre Panthers run defense. He’ll also be an effective receiver out of the backfield for a quarterback who won’t always be able to deliver passes to his receivers.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: There was some improvement from the coaching staff last week. Christian McCaffrey saw just three touches in the first 25 minutes of Week 1. Matt Rhule got the ball to McCaffrey more this past Sunday, and yet McCaffrey caught only four passes, two of which came on the final drive of the game. It’s almost like Rhule has never played in a PPR fantasy league!

McCaffrey won’t get much on the ground versus the Saints’ stout ground defense, so it’s imperative that the coaching staff gets the ball to McCaffrey in space so he can break a long gain or two.

Otherwise, it’s difficult to imagine the Panthers doing much on this side of the ball. The Saints have the personnel to generate a heavy pass rush, which doesn’t bode well for Baker Mayfield and his incredibly disappointing offensive line. D.J. Moore won’t fare any better with Marshon Lattimore draped all over him.

RECAP: This may not seem like a huge deal, but the advance spread was New Orleans -2.5. The line is now -3. This is a half-point movement, but the shift has gone to the ultimate key number. The most likely result of any game between two comparable opponents is three, so with Carolina +3, you’re getting a win or push with the two most likely results.

The question is, are these teams comparable? Perhaps the public won’t think so, but I do. The Saints are better, but they’re dealing with some issues, primarily stemming from Winston’s back. A team with a hobbled quarterback shouldn’t be favored like this over a competent opponent, and I would describe Carolina as such. The Panthers have their issues with pass protection, but they have McCaffrey and a swarming pass defense. They’ll be able to keep this game close.

I’m going to be on the Panthers for at least a couple of units, unless we get some news that Winston suddenly looks like he’s 100 percent in practice.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There seems to be some sharp money coming in on the Panthers. The vig is rising on the +3, so this line may drop to +2.5 soon. I’m going to lock in the lone +3 -110 I see, which is at BetUS. It sucks not to see the injury report, but I want the +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: Alvin Kamara is likely to return after being limited all week, but Jameis Winston is probably not healthy after being limited as well. The sharps, as expected, dropped this line down to +2.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked this one in at +3 because the sharps have taken this line to +2. The best +3 I see is for -137 vig at Bookmaker, so I would just sell the points, if anything. I also put them in a teaser.

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)
Line: Vikings by 6.5. Total: 52.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings seemed like a juggernaut heading into the Monday night affair, yet all they could do was score seven points. Darius Slay smothered Justin Jefferson. Dalvin Cook was repeatedly stuffed at the line of scrimmage. And Kirk Cousins looked completely unprepared for Philadelphia’s blitz.

Two of the three Vikings figure to rebound in this contest because the Lions have some serious holes in their linebacking corps and secondary. Dalvin Cook will run well against a Detroit defense that hasn’t been able to stop the rush through two games this season. Jefferson, meanwhile, will get open easily versus a Lions secondary that looked incompetent against A.J. Brown.

I mentioned two of the three Vikings because Cousins could continue to struggle. The one thing the Lions do well on this side of the ball is apply pressure with Aidan Hutchinson, who recorded three sacks last week. The Lions blitz heavily, which doesn’t bode well for Cousins. When blitzed this year, Cousins is 9-of-19 for only 66 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have been explosive through two weeks thus far. They fared much better against Philadelphia’s defense than Minnesota did. Detroit also had an offensive onslaught against the Redskins, which was surprising because they were missing every single interior offensive lineman.

There’s a decent chance Frank Ragnow and Jonah Jackson are able to return this week. If so, Jared Goff will have elite pass protection against the Vikings’ pass rush. This will allow Goff to torch a secondary with many weaknesses, especially if Harrison Smith is sidelined with a concussion.

Ragnow and Jackson will help blast open huge running lanes for D’Andre Swift as well. Swift has been terrific through two games, and I expect him to continue his great play.

RECAP: I’m a bit upset that everyone just saw the Vikings get blown out on Monday night because we have lost some line value on this game. Then again, I guess I can’t be too upset because fading Minnesota allowed our September NFL Pick of the Month to win!

The advance spread of +8 was way too high. The line is now +6.5, but I think that’s too high as well. Heck, +3 would be high! You might think I’ve been sniffing paint when I type this, but my projected line is Minnesota -1.5. I have the Vikings one point better than the Lions, so add one point for home-field advantage, and subtract 0.5 for the shortened week for Minnesota, and you get -1.5.

I love the Lions this year. Their defense has some holes, but is better than it was in 2021 because of Hutchinson. The offense is very explosive, and it has some great matchups against Minnesota’s secondary, especially if Smith is sidelined with a concussion.

This is one of my favorite picks this week, provided the Lions get at least one offensive lineman back from injury. This could be a five-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game where there’s sharp action. This line is down to +6, and I think we might see +5.5 soon (it’s already +5.5 at Bookmaker and FanDuel.) Six is such an important number, so I’m going to lock this in as well. I’m betting the moneyline, too.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some good news on the injury front for the Lions. Harrison Smith has been ruled out, while Eric Kendricks was downgraded to limited on Friday, which is never a good sign. I still love the Lions.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s good news for the Lions, as Frank Ragnow will return, while D’Andre Swift will play. Despite this, the sharps have moved this line to -6.5, which is a bummer. However, I think the sharps are wrong. I believe they’re chasing the value and not seeing how good the Lions are, but perhaps I’m the one who is incorrect.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1)
Line: Chiefs by 6. Total: 51.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Everyone has been wrong about the Chiefs thus far. No one expected their offense to continue to be explosive in the wake of Tyreek Hill’s departure, but Kansas City is 2-0. That said, the Chiefs needed some luck to defeat the Chargers at home Thursday night, so perhaps they aren’t as invincible as they looked in Week 1.

Patrick Mahomes figures to play well in this contest, given that the Colts don’t produce much pressure on the quarterback. Indianapolis has to blitz more often than it would like to in order to generate pressure, but this strategy will backfire against Mahomes, who is historically terrific against the blitz.

That said, Kansas City may not have a complete offensive onslaught if Shaq Leonard returns to action. Leonard’s absence has been enormous through two games, but he got in a full practice last week, so perhaps he’s close to returning. Having him back will be huge for the Colts’ chances of defending Travis Kelce.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Leonard wasn’t the only major injury the Colts endured last week. They were also missing their top receivers, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. Matt Ryan had to target players named Parris Campbell and Ashton Dulin instead, which was a big problem because Campbell couldn’t get open. Ryan is someone who heavily leans on his No. 1 wideout, so Pittman’s absence changed the entire landscape of that game.

It’s sounding like Pittman has a good chance of returning, and if so, Ryan will perform much better. The Chiefs bring heavy heat on the quarterback, so Ryan will need all hands on deck to score enough to hang with Mahomes.

The Colts will obviously look to get Jonathan Taylor going as well. This isn’t a great spot, but Taylor is nearly matchup-proof, so he could break some big gains and draw some focus off of Ryan.

RECAP: Everyone and their evil stepmother will be on the Chiefs. It wouldn’t surprise me if people took out a second mortgage on Kansas City. Why wouldn’t they do so? The Chiefs are 2-0, while the Colts tied the Texans and then got shut out versus the Jaguars. How can Indianapolis possibly contend with the Chiefs?

Well, the answer to that is Indianapolis isn’t quite as bad as it looked. As a refresher, the Colts outgained the Texans in the opener, 517-299, and they had a combined six points from drives that ended at the Houston 27, 2, 22, 30, 39, 4, and 16. As for the Jacksonville game, they were missing numerous starters, including their top receiver and best defensive player.

If Pittman and Leonard can return to action, the Colts will be a completely different team. And yet, we’re getting insane line value. The Chiefs were -3 prior to the Week 2 games. Now, they’re favored by a touchdown! We’ve gone from the No. 1 key number to the No. 2 key number, which is not something you see every week.

I cannot pass up on this ridiculous line value. It may seem treacherous to fade the Chiefs, but they are just 5-5 against the spread as favorites of seven or more on the road with Mahomes. In fact, they’ve covered just two of their previous six situations where they’ve been at least -7 as visitors. With that in mind, I have no issues making the Colts one of my top plays of the week, provided at least one of Pittman and Leonard can return to action.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game where the sharps have been pounding the underdog. This line is +5.5 in some places already, perhaps because of Michael Pittman Jr. returning to practice. BetUS still has +6 available.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s disappointing that Shaq Leonard will be out, but the Colts will at least be getting back both of their receivers. I think if I had to redo this pick, it would be for three units, but I still really like the Colts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no injury surprises, but the sharps are pounding the Colts. This line is down to +4.5 at Bookmaker, but you can still find +5 at Bovada and BetUS.

Las Vegas Raiders (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (0-2)
Line: Raiders by 2. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I expressed my frustration with Taylor Lewan suffering an injury on the very first snap against Buffalo. Lewan was so key in that matchup, so his absence meant that Tennessee had no chance. The Titans won’t be able to accomplish much offensively if Lewan is sidelined for this game as well. The Raiders have a terrific tandem of edge rushers that will make Ryan Tannehill’s life incredibly difficult if Lewan isn’t protecting his blind side.

The Raiders putting immense pressure on Tannehill will mask their weakness, which is the secondary. They couldn’t stop Kyler Murray in his epic comeback, but Tannehill won’t be able to escape sure sacks like Murray did in the fourth quarter of last week’s affair. Furthermore, the Raiders won’t be challenged by anyone in Tennessee’s receiving corps, save for maybe Treylon Burks. The Titans also don’t have a viable tight end to take advantage of the Raiders’ linebacking corps.

I wouldn’t count on Derrick Henry trampling the Raiders either. Las Vegas is better against the run than the pass, and Henry could be down three offensive linemen from last year’s blocking group if Lewan can’t make a recovery.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Another key player the Titans have been missing is Harold Landry, their top edge rusher. Jeffery Simmons is a monster, but Landry’s absence has limited Tennessee’s pass rush, which couldn’t quite get to Josh Allen on Monday night. The Titans are just 19th in pressure rate, which is a low number when considering that one of their matchups this season has been against the Giants.

That said, Tennessee could have some success rattling Derek Carr, given that the Raiders have major problems with their offensive line. Carr should still be able to connect frequently with Davante Adams, who will be looking to duplicate what Stefon Diggs did to this defense on Monday night.

Josh Jacobs should have some success running as well. Saquon Barkley trampled the Titans in Week 1, so Jacobs has a bright outlook in this game.

RECAP: The Titans were absolutely terrible on Monday night, and everyone might see them as an easy fade. I’d ordinarily disagree with such a sentiment, but given that Tennessee is playing on a shortened week, it might be difficult for it to make the proper adjustments.

That is exactly why I’m not going to play the line-value game with Tennessee. The advance spread was pick ’em, but I’m not going to choose to take the value. I’ll be on the Raiders, especially if the Titans are going to miss Lewan against the Raiders’ spectacular pass rush. I have no urge to bet this game, however.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Taylor Lewan may miss the rest of the season, so he’ll obviously be out for this game. Despite this, the line has moved in Tennessee’s direction.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders would be a nice fade under normal circumstances because they won’t have some starters available, including Hunter Renfrow and Denzel Perryman. However, the Titans will be missing lots of talent as well. In addition to Taylor Lewan, Tennessee will be without Bud Dupree, Ugo Amadi and potentially Zach Cunningham and Kyle Philips. I still don’t see any sort of edge either way.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Josh Jacobs will play, while Andre James will sit. This is a loss for the Raiders. The Titans are somewhat tempting because the sharps are on them, but I’m not going to bet this game.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Washington Redskins (1-1)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Video of the Week: Like you, I’m enjoying the fifth season of Cobra Kai. To celebrate this, enjoy these Johnny Lawrence insults:



I think these are only from the first season. Either way, it’s great to see Lawrence, the true hero of the Karate Kid, get some justice.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I predicted the Eagles to reach the Super Bowl this year, and yet Jalen Hurts is performing even better than I expected. His accuracy was inconsistent last year, but thanks to his tireless work ethic, Hurts has improved his accuracy tremendously. Almost all of his throws were right on the money versus the Vikings.

Hurts had an easy matchup last week, but that will once again be the case this Sunday. The Redskins have major problems in the secondary and linebacking corps, which Jared Goff was able to abuse this past Sunday.

If Goff was able to accumulate 36 points against the Redskins, imagine what Hurts will do with his supporting cast. The Redskins have no one to cover A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts will also do plenty of damage with his legs; the Redskins did not have to defend this element of Goff’s game in last week’s blowout defeat.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The narrative this week will be the Carson Wentz revenge factor. Wentz will be playing against a team that traded him so that it could start Hurts instead. I’m sure some bets will come in on the Redskins because of this dynamic.

I think this hurts the Redskins more than it helps. Philadelphia still has some leftover players from the Doug Pederson era who are familiar with Wentz, so they’ll be able to expose his weaknesses. Wentz will also be under heavy pressure, especially with center Chase Roullier sidelined. Wentz will need all the time he can get in the pocket to find his smothered receivers, but he won’t have that luxury.

The Redskins won’t get much out of their rushing attack either. Antonio Gibson might do well as a receiver out of the backfield, but Philadelphia’s stalwart front will limit him on the ground, just as it did Dalvin Cook on Monday night.

RECAP: I wish I would have bet this game a week ago because the advance spread was Philadelphia -3. Now, thanks to the Redskins’ loss to the Lions, and the Eagles’ impressive onslaught of the Vikings on national TV, this line has risen to -6.5 with heavy vig.

I’d ordinarily take the line value, but I don’t think that’s the correct strategy because this is a case of the public finally learning how good these teams are compared to one another. It’s now slowly becoming common knowledge that the Eagles are one of the top teams in the NFC, while the Redskins are a pedestrian squad. In fact, my calculated spread is Philadelphia -6.5.

I’ll be on the Eagles, but I don’t really see a reason to bet this game. I wish we were getting better line value, but that’s long gone. My biggest worry with backing Philadelphia is a potential Wentz-led back-door cover at the end of the afternoon, as almost all of the key numbers have vanished.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was some sharp action on the Redskins at +7. I still like the Eagles, but not enough to bet them.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only injury of consequence here is Landon Dickerson, who missed Friday’s practice. This doesn’t affect the pick at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The injury news here is that Landon Dickerson will play, while the Redskins will miss William Jackson, though Jackson has continued to suck. The sharps have moved this line to -6, so I’m going to hop on Philadelphia for one unit.

Houston Texans (0-1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 39.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: One stat that really surprised me is that the Bears have the No. 2 pressure rate in the NFL this year. It’s still very early, so I’m sure that’ll regress to the mean, but Chicago has put plenty of pressure on quarterbacks thus far. What’s more remarkable is that the Bears have done this without blitzing. They’ve blitzed only once this season!

The Bears may want to consider blitzing Davis Mills because he’s woeful when seeing extra pressure. Regardless, Mills should struggle, as he has not played well thus far. He failed to produce 300 net yards against the Shaq Leonard-less Colts in five quarters, and he reached the red zone only once versus Denver. I don’t see him suddenly having success in this matchup.

Houston’s best chance of moving the chains is feeding the ball to Dameon Pierce. Rex Burkhead was nowhere to be seen last week, as Pierce had a solid game versus Denver. The Bears struggled to stop the run Sunday night, so Pierce should continue to run well.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Texans don’t produce nearly as much pressure on the quarterback, which has to be music to Justin Fields’ ears. Fields is shielded by one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, so he needs all the help he can get.

Fields, however, has an extremely limited receiving corps. Rookie corner Derek Stingley Jr. will be able to restrict one of Fields’ options, but perhaps Cole Kmet can finally come alive against a pedestrian Houston linebacking corps.

Like the Texans, the Bears figure to run well. Chicago should have more success than Houston in this regard, as David Montgomery is the superior player and has the same sort of mismatch in his favor.

RECAP: I don’t have much interest in this game, but I think it’s intriguing that the line has fallen a half point from the advance spread. That’s significant because the pre-Week 2 line was Chicago -3. Now, it’s -2.5, meaning that the most likely result of this game, Chicago prevailing by three, is a win if you take the Bears -2.5.

I have to think that this line movement is based on the Week 2 results. The Bears lost by 17, while Houston kept it “close” against the Broncos. However, that result was very misleading, as the Broncos dominated that game, but made lots of mistakes. The Texans entered the red zone only once, and they were outgained, 350-234, and averaged 1.4 fewer yards per play. In most instances, Denver would have triumphed by double digits. If that were the case, perhaps this spread would still be -3.

I’ll be on the Bears, but like I said, my interest in this game is incredibly low. Barring some major injuries, I won’t be betting either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know who’s playing these games, but this line keeps bouncing between -2.5 and -3. I have no interest in betting either side at the moment.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears could be without their top linebacker, Roquan Smith, and best cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, with both missing Friday’s practice. This would explain why the sharps bet on the Texans at +3. Keep in mind that they haven’t done so at +2.5. I still have no interest in this game, though I’m switching my total pick to the under because of the projected 16-mph wind.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet both sides of this game, with the latest action coming in on Chicago, perhaps because Roquan Smith will play. This line is -3 across the board, with the best vig (-108) at FanDuel. I still have no interest.