NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2009): 9-6-1 (+$700)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,300)

NFL Picks (2009): 110-78-5 (+$8,310)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 7, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

New York Jets (5-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-7)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Jets -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Jets -3.
Thursday, 8:20 ET at Toronto

The Game. Edge: Jets.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 12 Recap: Though I got some hate mail for my Panthers-Jets pick (will post this later), I had a solid week overall. I went 10-6, +$1,300. It’s hard to believe that there are only five weeks left of the regular season. I think I’m already suffering from football betting withdrawal.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Looks like Rex Ryan’s brilliant color scheme is working for Mark Sanchez. Sanchez did just enough last week not to blow the game, while Jake Delhomme, the veteran, ironically was responsible for Carolina’s defeat. Sanchez was 13-of-17 for just 154 yards, but more importantly tossed just one interception.

Unfortunately, Sanchez goes up against a Buffalo squad that picked him off five times in mid-October. I’d say the Jets need to establish the run against the Bills’ woeful ground defense, but New York piled up 300 rushing yards in that contest and somehow lost.

Thomas Jones should run well again, so it’ll be up to Sanchez to take care of the football. With this new awesome color scheme, Sanchez won’t be as reckless this time.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Jets have struggled against the run all year, so I thought DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart would pound the rock effectively, limiting Jake Delhomme’s turnovers. That obviously didn’t happen. Carolina rushed for just 75 yards in that game.

New York has quietly improved against the run recently. In three of its past four games, the team has allowed 3.2 yards per carry or less to the opposition.

Fred Jackson is a talented runner, but if the Jets defense keeps stepping up, they’ll be able to force Ryan Fitzpatrick into long-yardage situations. Fitzpatrick has looked like the second coming of Joe Montana recently (as Chris B. noted on my Facebook wall), but he won’t have the luxury of airing it out to Terrell Owens here. Darrelle Revis has shut down No. 1 receivers all year, so he shouldn’t have a problem with Owens.

RECAP: This is a weird game. The Bills have played with fire under the new Perry Fuel Oil Company regime, but will they get up for this matchup? This contest will be played in Toronto, where barely anyone showed up last year. This is technically a home game for Buffalo, but I don’t see how the team can get any motivation when most of the fans won’t even be there.

Here’s a weird stat for you: The Bills are 3-21 against the spread after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998. This year, they followed up a loss to the Dolphins with that horrible 6-3 defeat to the Browns.

There is no logical explanation for this trend, but for whatever reason, it’s been really effective the past 11 years. It’s not the reason I’m taking the Jets; I’m just saying that I wouldn’t want to be on the other side of it.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Bills are playing well under Perry Fewell, but will they be motivated to play in front of no fans in Toronto?

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Early action on the Jets, but it’s really evened out.

Percentage of money on New York: 66% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Bills have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Bills are 22-14 ATS as a dog under the Dick Jauron/Perry Fewell regime.

Bills are 15-8 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Bills are 3-21 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Jets -1.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Retractable roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Jets 24, Bills 17
Jets -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 37 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 19, Bills 13

Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
Line: Eagles by 5.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Falcons -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Eagles -4 (No Ryan).
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Vegas Recap: Nothing exciting here. The sportsbooks went 4-4 with their lopsided games, meaning they won some money off the juice. Vegas cashed with some crappy teams covering (Buccaneers, Bills, Browns and Redskins) and took a hit with the Packers, Seahawks, Colts and Vikings all beating the number.

Speaking of Vegas, will someone wake them up and tell them to post a f***ing spread for this game? Seriously. Matt Ryan was ruled out yesterday afternoon. What are they waiting for? This is really pissing me off.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Might as well start with Ryan’s replacement. If you look at the stats, you may think that Chris Redman had a solid performance last week. Redman went 23-of-41 for 243 yards and two touchdowns. However, he did this against Tampa Bay’s woeful defense. Redman takes way too many sacks (5 last week) to put himself into long-yardage situations, and he doesn’t have good arm strength to get himself out of a hole.

The Eagles have 31 sacks on the year, so you know they’ll be in Redman’s face all afternoon. Left tackle Sam Baker really struggled last week and was even benched for performance reasons. Trent Cole could have his way with the hobbled lineman.

Redman will have to throw out of long-yardage situations because he won’t have a strong ground attack to support him. There’s a good chance Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling will get all of the carries against a Philadelphia defense that ranks fourth versus the rush.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Atlanta’s defense is terrible. The team has given up at least 245 passing yards in five of the past seven games (the exceptions coming against Jason Campbell and Jake Delhomme). As any Falcons fans on the forum will tell you, the cornerback play has been brutal ever since Brian Williams suffered a season-ending injury.

The Falcons are catching a break with DeSean Jackson probably being out with a concussion, but it’s not like Donovan McNabb doesn’t have other talented weapons at his disposal. Jeremy Maclin is coming on, Jason Avant is a very effective slot receiver, and Brent Celek is a solid tight end.

Oh, and let’s not forget LeSean McCoy. The Falcons aren’t terrible against the run, but they’re going to have to worry about McCoy catching balls out of the backfield.

RECAP: Assuming the Eagles are favored by 4-6 points, I’m taking the visitor. Unlike most people, I wasn’t impressed with Redman last week.

I don’t think the Falcons can beat a quality foe with Redman under center. Don’t compare this to the Steelers situation Sunday night. Unlike Pittsburgh, Atlanta doesn’t have a great stop unit that can step up and give Redman a chance to win. The Falcons are terrible defensively and won’t be able to run the ball.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game for both teams in the NFC playoff race.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Anyone want to bet on Chris Redman? Anyone?

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 68% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 61-37 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 37-23 ATS on the road since 2001.

Falcons are 3-17 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 20 instances.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Falcons 10
Eagles -5.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 34, Falcons 7

St. Louis Rams (1-10) at Chicago Bears (4-7)
Line: Bears by 9.5. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Bears -10.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Bears -10.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Bears.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. There was a report on Rotoworld recently where they said that Mike Martz wants back in the league, and that he’d be “thrilled” to get the Bills’ head coaching job.

Who in their right mind would make Martz a head coach of anything? I wouldn’t even want him as my janitor. At this point, Martz should just be “thrilled” to get hired by McDonald’s, where he would undoubtedly force some young kid to hold on to burning food too long.

2. A funny e-mail from Matt M.:

“I have inside information for you. The Eagles are going to change the name of the Michael Vick offense from ‘Wildcat’ to ‘Cougar’ because he runs like a middle-aged woman.”

3. Two weeks ago, I talked about a stupid NFL Network promo where the announcer said that anyone who doesn’t have the NFL Network was missing the following analysis from Michael Irvin: “He plays the quarterback position… like the quarterback position… is supposed… to be played…”

I have a new promo for NFL Network:

If you don’t have the NFL Network, you missed this:

Josh McDaniels: “All we’re trying to do is win a motherf***ing game!!!”

“We want to send our sincerest apologizes for that Josh McDaniels audio there.”

Easily one of the best moments in TV history.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s hard to blame Jay Cutler and Matt Forte for Chicago’s offensive struggles because the line hasn’t been able to block anyone. Cutler is pressured far too often and has to force the issue into receivers who can’t get separation, while Forte simply doesn’t have any running lanes to gash through.

Fortunately for the Bears, they get the Rams this week. St. Louis has just 18 sacks on the year and has given up at least 127 rushing yards in each of the past six games.

This is going to be a nice change of pace for Chicago. Three of the their past four opponents have been quality defensive teams (Vikings, Eagles, Cardinals), and the fourth was a solid 49ers squad. The Rams are the weakest defense the Bears have faced since they thrashed Cleveland, 30-6, on Nov. 1. That was their last victory.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Despite the Rams’ offensive struggles, Steven Jackson has been incredible this year. Jackson is second in the league in rushing yards with 1,120 even though opposing defenses stack the line of scrimmage to stop him. He’s a beast and cannot be contained.

The Bears have been leaky versus the run lately, allowing at least 110 rushing yards in the past six games. As long as Jackson’s back holds up – it did against Seattle – that stat will extend to seven games.

Jackson will open up play-action opportunities for Kyle Boller. Boller was bad against Seattle, but not as terrible as I thought he would be. He went 28-of-46 for 282 yards, one touchdown and two picks. The Bears can be thrown on and struggle to generate sacks (22 on the year), so the Rams should be able to move the chains consistently and put points on the scoreboard.

RECAP: I love the Rams here. I can’t believe I just said that, but it’s true.

First of all, who are the Bears to be laying nine points? They stink. Their offensive line can’t block and their defense can’t stop anyone. They haven’t even won a game in more than a month. How can they beat a 9-point spread if they can’t even get a victory?

This is a terrible spot for Chicago. The team just lost an emotional game to the Vikings. With their season in the toilet, I just can’t see the Bears getting up for this meaningless contest.

I’d have five units on the Rams if I trusted them. However, after the Jake Delhomme debaclation last week, I just can’t lay more than three units on a team or quarterback I don’t have much faith in unless I’m getting an absurd amount of points. That said, St. Louis is definitely the right side. This is a 3-unit play.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

Though the score may not show it, the Bears put a ton of effort into their battle against the Vikings. It was tied 7-7 midway through the second quarter, but Minnesota pulled away, ending Chicago’s playoff hopes. The Bears will be flat here.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
As bad as the Bears have been, about two-thirds of the people don’t want any part of the Rams.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 62% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Rams are 22-38 ATS in road games since 2001 (3-2 this year).

Rams are 13-25 ATS on grass since 2001.

Bears are 6-2 ATS off back-to-back losses since 2005.

Bears are 6-2 ATS after giving up 30 or more points in a loss since 2005.

Opening Line: Bears -9.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Cloudy, 39 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Bears 20
Rams +9.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 17, Rams 9

Detroit Lions (2-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-3)
Line: Bengals by 13.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Bengals -13.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Bengals -13.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

We almost had a lot to be thankful for on Thanksgiving. Rebecca Grant, the Verizon chick who appears on Fox before the games, made a special appearance prior to the Lions-Packers debaclation.

I said “almost” because we once again did not see any cleavage. We also didn’t see any cleavage on Sunday. It’s been five weeks now, and no cleavage from Rebecca Grant. I’m dying here.

By the way, three hilarious comments left in Rebecca Grant’s YouTube Video (none by me, I swear):

1. “I would absolutely destroy this woman’s p***y.”
2. “id eat a mile of her feces just to see where it came from”
3. “I’d put my c**k through a tree shredder if I knew her p***y was on the other side”

Bravo, gentlemen.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Getting right to the news, both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson practiced Tuesday, so they appear to be on track to play in Sunday’s game. Both struggled on Thanksgiving and probably should have sat out, but 10 days of rest is just what they needed.

Unfortunately, Stafford and Megatron have the misfortune of battling Cincinnati’s defense this week. The Bengals haven’t allowed more than 183 passing yards in any game since Oct. 25, and they haven’t surrendered 100 rushing yards since Oct. 4.

Obviously, it’s going to be tough for the Lions to move the chains. The offensive line will have major problems blocking Cincinnati’s defensive front, meaning Stafford will have to keep converting third downs against two very good Bengal cornerbacks. Think there will be a pick-six in this game?

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals are not an explosive team. Excluding one fluky game against the Bears, they haven’t scored more than 18 points since Oct. 4. It’s really bizarre to see them struggling, considering that they have talents like Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and Cedric Benson on offense.

Benson will be back in the lineup and will enjoy gashing a Detroit defense ranked 27th versus the run. Palmer will then have the luxury of converting third-and-short situations against an anemic Lions secondary that has surrendered 300 passing yards or more in their past four contests. In fact, the only time Detroit hasn’t allowed 300 passing yards to an opponent since mid-October was when the team went up against Marc Bulger.

RECAP: All signs point to a Bengal blowout, but the same could have been said last week when Cincinnati took on the Browns. The final score was just 16-7.

As mentioned, the Bengals are not an explosive team and consequently have problems covering high spreads. Since 2007, they are just 1-8 against the number when favored by 3.5 or more.

Furthermore, this is a really tough spot for Cincinnati for two reasons. First, this is a meaningless contest against a non-conference foe. The Bengals are three in front of the Steelers and Ravens (they have the tie-breaker), so they don’t need a victory. And second, they have the Vikings and Chargers after this “easy game.” Why would Cincinnati be focused here?

The Lions always lose on Thanksgiving, but they at least tend to rebound well immediately afterward. They’ve also kept most of their games close recently. Before their Turkey Day debaclation, only one of their contests had been decided by more than 12 points, and that was a 27-10 loss at Minnesota which was a tight battle for a while.

SURVIVOR PICK: I’ve used the Steelers already, so the Bengals will be the pick. Those are the only two I’d consider this week. The Chargers and Saints look enticing, but I will never take a road team unless I absolutely have to.

In order, I like: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, San Diego and New Orleans. The Bengals are my only option here, so if they lose, it’s a been a good run.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

This is a Breather Alert for the Bengals. After this easy, meaningless matchup, they have the Vikings and Chargers. The Lions, meanwhile, will look to rebound off another embarrassing Thanksgiving loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

After that Thanksgiving disaster, the public doesn’t want to bet the Lions.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 80% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Lions are 11-7 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006 (1-6 in 2009).

Lions are 11-18 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Bengals are 5-13 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -13.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Cloudy, 44 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Bengals 17, Lions 10
Lions +13.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (12-0)
Bengals 23, Lions 13

Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Indianapolis Colts (11-0)
Line: Colts by 6.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Colts -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Colts -9.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some college football notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I really hope I didn’t bankrupt anyone with my college football picks this weekend. Despite being 26-32-2, -$5,270 going into Friday, I somehow went 5-0. If you’ve been betting against me and making tons of cash, there’s a good chance you’ve lost a good amount of money. I apologize.

2. If you didn’t notice, I tried a new strategy with my college football picks. I did absolutely no research. I simply found the five most outrageous lines of the week and went the other way.

For example, San Jose State was -10.5 over New Mexico State. San Jose State was just 1-9, yet they were laying double digits because New Mexico State had only three wins.

I figured it this way – it doesn’t matter how bad New Mexico State is. No 1-9 team should ever be favored by 10.5. That spread was ridiculous, so, I took the points.

The beauty of it is that I can’t name a single player on either squad. Apparently, the quarterback of San Jose State is some guy named George de la Celsius. Go figure. I thought Jeff Garcia might still be there, but I guess not.

Unfortunately, the college season is pretty much over. The good news is that I have something to roll with next year.

3. I pointed this out in the Live In-Games thread:

Only two meaningful games today:

Florida vs. Florida State
TCU vs. New Mexico

One 24-point favorite. One 44-point favorite.

College football fails again.

When Barack Obama was running for president, he promised us that there would be a college football playoff. I’m holding him to that. I don’t care if he somehow ends every war, raises the Dow to record levels and paves our streets with gold; if there is no college football playoff, he will be a huge failure as President of the United States.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: All Vince Young does in win football games. Was he lucky at times on his final drive? Sure. But Young has done stuff like this throughout his career. He’s 23-11 as a starter.

The Colts are going to have a major headache containing Tennessee’s offense. Their defense has allowed at least 113 rushing yards in four of the past six games. The Titans, meanwhile, have rushed for 150-plus yards in each of Young’s five starts.

There’s just too much to worry about. The Colts can’t exactly focus in on Chris Johnson because Young can take off. Young can also get the ball downfield to Kenny Britt, as we’ve seen by his 380-yard performance. Young is also taking care of the football, which is easy because he’s protected by a great offensive line that will keep Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis out of the backfield.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: One thing the Titans do well defensively is contain the run. They’ve limited each of their past three opponents to 89 rushing yards or less. Continuing that trend will be huge against the Colts because it’ll allow them to force Peyton Manning into some third downs.

Of course, Manning doesn’t exactly struggle to move the chains consistently. Cortland Finnegan is now healthy and playing well for Tennessee, but the rest of the secondary is still an issue. Manning simply has too many weapons for the Titans to handle.

Tennessee needs to get some pressure on Manning. Unfortunately, he has been sacked only 10 times this year, though he went down twice at Houston. The Titans usually get solid heat on the quarterback, but Manning is just too well-protected.

RECAP: I like Tennessee here – to win straight up.

This contest doesn’t mean much to the Colts. They’ve already clinched the division and they’re three up on everyone for homefield advantage. They’ve proven in the past that they don’t care about going 16-0. Jim Caldwell even said he would rest some of his players in the final two weeks of the season.

Meanwhile, this is Tennessee’s Super Bowl. They need a victory to give themselves a chance at a playoff berth. I know I said the same thing about the Texans last week, but the Titans do not choke. After all, all Vince Young does in win football games.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

Big game for the Titans. This is the one they’ve been waiting for in this 10-game gauntlet of theirs. If they beat Indianapolis, it’s smooth sailing after that (Rams, Dolphins, Chargers at home on Christmas, Seahawks).

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Early action on the Titans, but it has evened out.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 58% (174,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

History: Colts have won 10 of the last 13 meetings (Titans 5-2 ATS since 2006).

Titans are 20-11 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.

Vince Young is 23-11 as a starter (23-11 ATS).

Vince Young is 9-3 ATS as a road dog.

Opening Line: Colts -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Titans 24, Colts 21
Titans +6.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 27, Titans 17

Denver Broncos (7-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-8)
Line: Broncos by 6.5. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Broncos -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Broncos -6.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

While people were waking up early to go Black Friday shopping, I went to bed late. Starting at midnight, there were great deals on BestBuy.com, Amazon.com, etc.

On the former site, they had full seasons of Married with Children and other good shows for only $10. I kept adding stuff to my cart, and I eventually was at $450. Whoops!

At Amazon.com, I bought the Blind Side (the book) for $8. I want to see the movie first though. If I read the book, it’ll ruin the movie for me, but going from the movie to the book will be a better experience because the book is always better.

I’ll see the movie soon. I nearly went on Saturday with some friends, but I had too much work to do. I had dinner with those friends before they went to the movies, and one guy, Gary, had no interest in seeing movie.

I quote: “I’d rather be raped by Sandra Bullock than see that movie.”

You know what? I would too.

DENVER OFFENSE: While losing one unit on the Giants didn’t sit well with me Thanksgiving night, it was at least nice to see Knowshon Moreno have his coming-out party. Moreno rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, and received the majority of the workload until the game was out of hand.

Moreno should continue to dominate. The Chiefs just limited San Diego to 94 rushing yards, but that was the first time since Sept. 27 that they held a team to less than 100 rushing yards in any contest. Denver’s stout offensive line will push Kansas City’s horrible defensive front around and open up huge running lanes for Moreno.

Kyle Orton will have lots of fun with all of the third-and-short situations. He’ll throw his beautiful 5-yard passes to Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler all afternoon. Orton’s targets will compile tons of yardage after the catch because Kansas City’s secondary can’t tackle.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s amazing that it took Todd Haley 11 weeks to figure out that Jamaal Charles was his best running back. I really don’t know what he was thinking by trotting out Larry Johnson and Kolby Smith all of those games. In a losing effort, Charles had 93 rushing yards on 14 carries and 54 more yards off three receptions. That’s amazing considering how horrible Kansas City’s offensive line is.

Charles could be in for a similar performance against a suddenly healthy Denver defense. With Charles as a threat to pick up chunks of yards, Matt Cassel should be able to convert third-and-short situations to keep drives alive. The Chiefs won’t score much with that strategy, but they’ll at least hold on to the ball for a while to keep Orton and his girly arm on the sidelines.

One thing Cassel needs to do is refrain from committing dumb turnovers. During Sunday’s Chargers game, Cassel tossed an interception, which Philip Rivers turned into a touchdown seven plays later. Later, when the contest was still manageable (21-7), Cassel fumbled the ball, which was returned for another score. That put it way for San Diego. If Cassel has two big errors like this again, the Chiefs won’t have a shot to beat the Broncos.

RECAP: I know the Broncos just demolished the Giants, but I have a problem with them being favored by this much on the road. They had lost four games in a row before Thanksgiving and were lucky enough to catch New York traveling on a short work week. It wasn’t too smart of me to take the Giants in that contest.

The Chiefs have been blown out just twice since the beginning of October – and both times were against San Diego. Remember, Kansas City just beat the Steelers two weeks ago. They’re a feisty team, and I think they’ll make things interesting here.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

This is a Sandwich Situation for the Broncos. They’re coming off a victory over the Giants and have the Colts after this easy contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

It would take a lunatic to bet on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Denver: 79% (151,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Home Team has won 14 of the last 16 meetings.

Broncos are 8-25 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Broncos are 0-9 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more in 2008.

Broncos are 1-16 SU in December games at Arrowhead.

Chiefs are 13-7 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Chiefs are 6-14 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Broncos -4.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 41 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Broncos 23, Chiefs 20
Chiefs +6.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 44, Chiefs 13

New Orleans Saints (11-0) at Washington Redskins (3-8)
Line: Saints by 10. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Saints -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Saints -14.

Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Saints.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I read on NFL.com’s new crappy GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “We need a new Defense Coornating.”

Fact: No NFL team can win consistently with a bad defense coornating.

2. “pitz gonna looz at ravenz”

Allz the girlz thinkz I’m coolz cuzz I use Z’s at the endz of my wordzzzzz!!!

3. “JASON WITTEN IS SOME CUT OUR DEFENSE IS #5 RIGHT NOW BOY THAT BOY DEANGELO HALL IS BETTA DEN ANY CORNER BACK BUT NOT MY MAN CHAMP BAILEY”

Attention all rich kids from the suburbs: If you capitalize your sentences, use the word “boy” multiple times, and spell words like “better” and “than” incorrectly, you can sound gangsta too!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: My dad after watching the Saints-Patriots blowout: “Drew Brees is a machine.” It’s true. Brees was nearly flawless Monday night, going 18-of-23 for 371 yards and five touchdowns. The Patriots looked silly trying to stop him.

However, there’s a huge difference between Washington and New England’s defense. The Redskins have a very good secondary that has allowed only one 200-plus passing yard performance since the end of September. The only knock on them is that they blow one or two assignments per game that usually results in a big play for the other team. Think Brees will take advantage of that?

To contain New Orleans, the Redskins will need to pressure Drew Brees. Brees is protected by one of the top offensive lines in the league, but Washington gets after the quarterback pretty consistently. Albert Haynesworth, who is expected back for this matchup, commands double teams, allowing Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo to rack up tons of sacks. They have a combined total of 16 on the year.

There’s no question the Saints will put up a decent amount of points in this contest – they’ve scored 28 or more in seven straight games – but I don’t think they’ll be as dominant as they were on Monday night. They’ll be out of their dome, and the Redskins have more talent on defense than New England.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Since the bye, the Redskins have been more competitive. They can thank their new Bingo coordinator for limiting Jason Campbell’s turnovers, which absolutely killed Washington early in the season. In his first seven games, Campbell had seven interceptions and 10 fumbles. In his previous four outings, Campbell has four picks and no fumbles.

It’ll be tough for Campbell to stay clean against the Saints. Darren Sharper is a ballhawk who leads the NFL with eight interceptions (three returned for a touchdown). The rest of the secondary is also solid, especially with the signing of Mike McKenzie and the possible return of Jabari Greer.

The major difference for New Orleans on Monday night was Sedrick Ellis’ presence. The dominant defensive tackle opened things up for the rest of the front, which is why Tom Brady was rattled all night. Ellis should wreak havoc upon Washington’s poor offensive line. Maybe Campbell will commit some turnovers after all.

RECAP: What a shady point spread. How are the Saints favored by only 9.5 points? It really doesn’t make any sense. Who in their right mind would bet on the Redskins?

I will. Some things to consider here:

1. Washington is underrated. The team has a solid defense and Campbell isn’t turning the ball over anymore. Since the bye, the Redskins are 3-1 ATS.

2. The Saints are a great team, but they’re not the same outside of their dome. They’ve blown out the dregs they’ve played on the road (Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Philadelphia with Kevin Kolb making his first start), but they struggled at Miami and even St. Louis.

3. The Saints are coming off one of the biggest victories in franchise history. Their win over the Patriots was a statement game. With the Falcons coming up in Week 14, how will New Orleans get up for 3-win Washington?

4. This is the Redskins’ Super Bowl. They’re not going to make the playoffs, but they can at least validate their season by slaying the 11-0 Saints. Remember in 2007 when the Patriots waltzed into Baltimore as huge favorites against a horrible Ravens team? Baltimore came to play and almost knocked off New England. This seems like a very similar situation.

5. This would be a 4-unit play for me. However, there’s one major thing going against the Redskins…

Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams coached in Washington back in 2007. I love going with coaches who are going against their former team because they can come up with a perfect game plan against their personnel.

I’m still taking Washington, but this stupid Gregg Williams thing is really annoying.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Credit forum member Droford for bringing this up: Remember when the undefeated Patriots went into Baltimore as massive road favorites two years ago? The Ravens, whose season was completely lost, played way over their heads in an attempt to give their year some meaning by knocking off New England. The Redskins could be in a similar situation. This is a Sandwich Situation for the Saints with Atlanta on the slate in Week 14.

On the flip side… Gregg Williams coached the Redskins in 2007. He knows how to game plan against their personnel.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Wow… what a very shady point spread. Vegas either has something cooked up, or they’re going to lose a lot of money.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 76% (170,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Monday Magic: Sean Payton is 4-1 ATS after a Monday night win.

Saints are 47-30 ATS on the road since 2000.

Drew Brees is 14-6 ATS as a road favorite.

Drew Brees is 22-11 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -9.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 42 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Redskins 27
Redskins +10 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 33, Redskins 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10) at Carolina Panthers (4-7)
Line: Panthers by 4.5. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Panthers -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Panthers -9.

Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

1. “i hope eagles stay in the playoff pic.. wildcat or divion”

This guy started so well, but lost all sense of spelling and logic at the end of his sentence.

2. “wat! a pentalty”

wat! a misspelled sentence fragment

3. “How man PRO BOWLERS do the Cowboys need on their roster to win a Superbowl….Answer: 22”

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzing!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Jake Delhomme is finally benched. All it took was a broken finger. With Delhomme unable to play and fix any of the games, you have to wonder if his son’s kidnappers (a.k.a. John Fox and his coaching staff) will return the child to Delhomme. I feel like ESPN should investigate this.

Matt Moore will play, so maybe Fox will rely heavily on his vaunted rushing attack for a change. The Buccaneers struggled against the run going into the Atlanta game, but somehow held the Falcons to 75 rushing yards on a 2.9 average. Still, it’s hard to imagine DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart struggling against Tampa Bay.

Moore should be able to convert his third-and-short situations, but I honestly don’t trust Fox and Jeff Davidson to stick with their ground attack. They’ve abandoned it far too often in the past, so even with Moore at quarterback, I don’t have any faith in them to make the right decisions.

If they have Moore throwing often, the Panthers will have problems. Left tackle Jordan Gross’ absence has been a major blow for Carolina’s offense, while Tampa Bay’s stop unit just generated six sacks on Matt Ryan and Chris Redman.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Josh Freeman has really turned Tampa Bay’s season around. I know they have only one win, but this was a team that was getting blown out every week. Freeman beat the Packers in his first start and has helped the Buccaneers be very competitive in three of their four games this month.

Freeman went 20-of-29 for 250 yards and two touchdowns at Atlanta. He connected on several deep throws to Antonio Bryant, who looks healthy again. More importantly, he didn’t commit any turnovers, which had been a problem for him going into the contest. He did fumble once late in the game, but his team fortunately recovered the ball.

Freeman should stay relatively clean as long as he’s not in too many long-yardage situations. The Panthers have surrendered 469 rushing yards in their past three games, so the Buccaneers should run the ball well enough to give Freeman manageable third downs.

RECAP: This is a rough spot for the Panthers. They just lost a tough game to the Jets that pretty much knocked them out of playoff contention. Now they have to get up for a feisty, 1-win Tampa Bay squad that is hungry for a victory. I really don’t see the Panthers putting forth much effort here.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Jets loss was big because it pretty much knocked the Panthers out of the playoff race. I’m not sure if they’ll be able to get up for the crappy Buccaneers.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
I think people would rather debacle themselves than bet on Jake Delhomme. Good thing Delhomme’s not playing.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 62% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Road Team has won 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Panthers are 13-24 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.

Panthers are 21-31 ATS at home since 2003.

Jake Delhomme is 14-23 ATS as a home favorite.

Jake Delhomme is 3-8 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Opening Line: Panthers -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 46 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 20
Buccaneers +4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 16, Buccaneers 6

Houston Texans (5-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
Line: Texans by 2. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Jaguars -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Jaguars -3.

Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Texans.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some weird things were said by NFL players and TV analysts recently. I don’t make fun of these people enough, I know. Here are some quotes and my thoughts on each:

1. Rebecca Grant: “Coming up, DC heads to Big D!”

I don’t care if “DC goes to Big D.” I want cleavage!

2. Greg Gumbel: “If you’re a fantasy owner, you’re hanging yourself.”

Call me crazy, but I don’t see Gumbel getting a job at a suicide hotline any time soon.

3. Jim Nantz: “Bruce Gradkowski is often compared to Jeff Garcia, but he wants to be known as a Rich Gannon-, Drew Brees-type.”

Bruce Gradkowski is a lot like Drew Brees. All he needs is arm strength, downfield accuracy, intermediate accuracy, short accuracy, experience, pocket awareness, good footwork, the ability to manipulate defenses, and the ability to read defenses. Other than that, Gradkowski is exactly like Brees!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: A week ago, I berated Jack Del Rio and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter for calling 22 passes compared to just 10 runs in the first 32 plays of the Buffalo game. At San Francisco, it got even worse. Maurice Jones-Drew carried the ball only FIVE times in the first half! How stupid are these guys? Do they sit in a meeting during the week and say, “Everyone thinks we’re going to give the ball to our best player. Ha! We’ll get the ball to our worst players instead! That’ll fool everyone!”

It really amazes me how these dumb coaches hold on to jobs in the highest level of football. I’d like to tell you that the Jaguars will attempt to establish Jones-Drew, but who really knows what Del Rio and Koetter will conjure up this week? What I can tell you is that Houston has allowed 100 rushing yards or more to just two opponents since Sept. 27. Still, the Jaguars need to give the ball to Jones-Drew as much as possible.

David Garrard will probably air it out 50 times in this contest. That strategy could work in this situation because Houston’s secondary is very questionable. Unfortunately, so is Garrard’s ball security. Garrard leads the NFL with 11 fumbles (8 lost). He’ll probably add to that total Sunday afternoon.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of stupid coaches, what is Gary Kubiak’s obsession with Chris Brown? Brown is old, fat and slow. I know Steve Slaton has fumbling problems, but he’s much more talented. And if you don’t want to use Slaton, what about Ryan Moats? I really don’t understand these coaches.

Running the ball with the great Chris Brown will prove to be futile because the Jaguars have yielded 60 rushing yards or less in three of their past four games. That’s pretty impressive.

What’s been unimpressive, however, is Jacksonville’s secondary. Looking completely lost without top corner Rashean Mathis, the Jaguars have surrendered 975 passing yards the past four weeks.

If Ryan Fitzpatrick and Alex Smith can look like Pro Bowlers against the Jaguars, Matt Schaub may not throw a single incompletion. He’ll have all the time in the world to locate his targets downfield because Jacksonville cannot generate any sort of pass rush.

RECAP: The Texans are the better team, but that didn’t stop them from losing last time. And I don’t like their chances here either. They just lost their Super Bowl. Once 5-3, they now sit at 5-6, meaning that their season is over.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, always seem to thrive when the chips are down. Coming off a blowout loss, no one believes in them. This is when they shine.

I really love Jacksonville in this spot, but this is just a 2-unit play. I simply refuse to bet more than that right now on the unbelievably incompetent Del Rio.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Texans just lost their Super Bowl. The Jaguars, meanwhile, were blown out by an inferior team, so no one believes in them again. That’s when they’re at their best.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

No one wants any part of the Jaguars after two stink bombs.

Percentage of money on Houston: 85% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 4 of the last 7 meetings (5-2 ATS).

Texans are 27-12 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.

Jaguars are 16-11 ATS as an underdog since 2006. ???

Opening Line: Jaguars -1.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 63 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Jaguars 31, Texans 27
Jaguars +2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 23, Texans 18

New England Patriots (7-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-6)
Line: Patriots by 4.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Patriots -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Patriots -6.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’m doing the same.

Surprise, surprise, Bo-Bo has lost again. I guess that’s what happens when you keep riding Patrick Crayton every week.

Here are his starters and their respective point totals:

QB: Joe Flacco (11)
RB1: Frank Gore (10)
RB2: Michael Turner (3)
WR1: Terrell Owens (15)
WR2: Chris Chambers (13)
WR3: Patrick Crayton (0)
TE: John Carlson (1)
K: David Akers (14)
DEF: Vikings Defense (14)

Bo-Bo is now 3-9. Predictably, he has scored the least amount of points in the league (929). As a reference, there are several owners in this league who have more than 1,100 points on the year. Poor Bo-Bo.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Think Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are going to be a bit mad after getting blown out like that on national TV? Think they’ll want to prove all of those ESPN clowns wrong? I definitely think so.

The Dolphins do a great job of getting pressure on the quarterback, but they struggle in all other defensive departments. They’ve surrendered 100 rushing yards or more in seven consecutive games and they rank 26th against the pass. Brady torched their rookie corners for 332 yards and a touchdown in a Week 9 meeting.

A motivated Brady could have even more success this time. With Sebastian Vollmer presumably back in the lineup and a strong rushing attack by his side, he’ll put up tons of points in Miami.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Chad Henne has been pretty solid all year, but he really struggled at Buffalo, going 17-of-31 for 175 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Now that Bill Belichick had a look at him, I think Henne is in for more trouble in this contest.

The Dolphins will need to establish the run with Ricky Williams to keep Henne from committing more turnovers in third-and-long situations. The good news is that Miami rushed for 133 yards at New England back on Nov. 8. The bad news is that without Ronnie Brown, Williams has to do all of the work. Williams carried the ball 27 times against the Jets. At the age of 32, he has to be a bit worn down, don’t you think?

RECAP: If the Patriots lose here, they’ll have just a one-game lead over the Dolphins in the AFC East.

Good thing Belichick and Brady don’t lose two games in a row! Since 2003, Brady is an amazing 13-3 against the spread following a defeat.

The Patriots tend to thrive when everyone doubts them. Steve Young and Stuart Scott took turns Monday night incoherently asking questions like, “Why haven’t they won a game on the road yet?” or “What’s wrong with that defense?” or “When’s the last time Belichick washed his hoodie?”

To quote Mike Tomlin, New England will “unleash hell” in Miami.

LINE DROP: This spread has mysteriously dropped from -5.5 to -3.5 We’re discussing this here: Patriots-Dolphins line drop.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

The Dolphins will bring it to beat their arch rivals in a must-win. The Patriots, however, are being doubted by the media again. “Why haven’t they won a game on the road yet?” “Why did Bill Belichick pull his starters early?” “What’s wrong with that defense?”

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Wonder where the money’s going here…

Percentage of money on New England: 93% (135,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Road Rules: Bill Belichick is 6-1 ATS on the road following a road loss.

Patriots are 29-16 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 106-32 as a starter (82-54 ATS).

Tom Brady is 21-7 ATS off a loss.

Tom Brady is 13-3 ATS off a loss since 2003.

Tom Brady is 3-4 ATS at Miami.

Dolphins are 8-2 ATS vs. AFC East since 2008.

Opening Line: Patriots -5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Cloudy, 78 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, Dolphins 17
Patriots -4.5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 22, Patriots 21

Oakland Raiders (3-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
Line: Steelers by 15. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Steelers -14.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Steelers -14.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 12 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, Eric Mangini admits that he’s not planning for the Patriots game because he’s preparing for his birthday party instead. Will Erin Andrews show up to Mangini’s bash at Super Fun Time? Stay tuned.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start Sunday. He has been cleared by neurologists, the coaching staff and Hines Ward. Poor Raiders.

Oakland is ranked in the bottom four of both run and pass defense. If Bruce Arians wants to ease Big Ben back into things, Rashard Mendenhall will easily trample over a defense that has allowed 100 rushing yards or more to all but two opponents this year.

If Arians wants to air it out, Roethlisberger will torch Oakland’s secondary. Steelers fans will hope that Roethlisberger’s concussion didn’t make him forget how good Nnamdi Asomugha is. As long as Big Ben doesn’t challenge him, Pittsburgh won’t have any problems putting points up on the scoreboard.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders played relatively well early in the Dallas game. In fact, if two defenders didn’t collide trying to intercept a Tony Romo tipped pass, Oakland might have battled the Cowboys until the very end.

The Raiders were able to run the ball effectively early against Dallas. Justin Fargas rushed for 63 yards on 12 carries before Al Davis got bored and wanted to get his other “great players” involved.

However, Oakland won’t have that luxury here. The Steelers are first versus the run, so Bruce Gradkowski will be forced to convert long-yardage situations. Gradkowski thinks of himself as the next Drew Brees, but I doubt Gradkowski will have much success at Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon.

RECAP: The Cowboys were -13.5 over the Raiders, so this spread should be similar. If so, I like the visitor.

I know I just made the Steelers sound a billion times better than Oakland – and they are – but for whatever reason, Pittsburgh has had major problems covering large spreads this season. They were -11 at Detroit, but won by only eight. They were -13.5 over the Browns, but won by just 13. They were -7 against the Bengals and lost straight up. They were -11 at Kansas City and suffered yet another defeat.

I know Mike Tomlin said the Steelers were going to “unleash hell in December,” but there’s a chance that he means hell for anyone who bets on them.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

This is a must-win for Pittsburgh and Mike Tomlin said the Steelers will “unleash hell in December.” Poor Bruce Gradkowski.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

As lopsided as I imagined it would be.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 68% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Early Game Alert: Pacific teams playing on the East Coast at 1 p.m. are 31-46 ATS since 2002 (Tom Cable 2-2).

Steelers are 20-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 66-26 as a starter (51-39 ATS).

Opening Line: Steelers -14.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Cloudy, 38 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Raiders 10
Raiders +15 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 37 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 27, Steelers 24

Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chargers at Browns, 49ers at Seahawks, Cowboys at Giants, Vikings at Cardinals, Ravens at Packers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)