NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)

NFL Picks (2009): 58-33-2 (+$7,305)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 19, 4:25 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Pick.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Pick.

Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Oct. 12, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Restaurants. 2) Gay Portuguese Waiter. 3) Olive Garden.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kurt Warner really surprised me by coming out and torching Houston’s secondary last week. I knew the Texans’ defense sucked, but Warner had really struggled coming into the game because of his surgically repaired hip. However, Warner was just 3-of-15 after halftime, so it’s possible that the first half could have been the result of Houston’s stop unit being really inept.

Seattle is much better. The secondary still has its problems, but the front four really gets after the quarterback. Through five games, the Seahawks have 14 sacks.

This obviously doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals. They have issues at both tackle positions, and Levi Brown really looked lost against the Colts a few weeks ago.

The Cardinals don’t run the ball much. When they do give Tim Hightower and Chris Wells some carries, they won’t get much against a Seattle defense that just limited Maurice Jones-Drew to 34 yards on 12 carries. It’ll be all Warner against this Seahawks pass rush. Godspeed, Kurt.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Is there any doubt Matt Hasselbeck is healthy? I liked the Jaguars last week because I thought Hasselbeck was coming back early from his rib injury and planned on playing hurt. Whoops. Hasselbeck responded by going 18-of-30 for 241 yards and four touchdowns.

As we saw last week, the Cardinals can be thrown on. They rank 24th against the pass and have just eight sacks in four games. Hasselbeck will pick up right where he left off against Jacksonville.

RECAP: I love the Seahawks here. With Hasselbeck under center again, they’re playing with fire. They’re out to prove to everyone that they’re a contender again. They’re also incredibly dominant at home (see stat below), and it’s not like the Cardinals are very good outside of their dome.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Seahawks are playing with fire right now. This is a big statement game that will tell everyone that they are back.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight edge toward Seattle.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 59% (159,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Home Team has won 9 of the last 11 meetings (Cardinals have won 4 of the last 5 meetings).

Seahawks are 10-2 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Showers, 59 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 10
Seahawks -3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 47 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Cardinals 27, Seahawks 3

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-4)
Line: Eagles by 14. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Eagles -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Eagles -11.

Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

We are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, a few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 6 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on Thursday.

And finally, there are 84 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I don’t even know if it’s worth writing up a game analysis… The Raiders are that bad.

Oakland has no pass rush. Outside of a game against the Texans and their pathetic offensive line, the Raiders have only five sacks in four games. Chris Johnson is also really struggling across from Nnamdi Asomugha, so McNabb will keep tossing it to Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek, while DeSean Jackson is tied up with the NFL’s top cornerback.

Andy Reid neglected to run the ball against the Buccaneers. It didn’t hurt him because Tampa Bay is terrible, but it’ll eventually cost him. But not this week. If Big Red decides to pound the rock, he’ll have major success versus Oakland’s pathetic rush defense.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Here’s where it gets really bad. JaMarcus Russell has no idea what to do once he takes the snap from his center. Russell has no pocket awareness, he turns the ball over like Rex Grossman, and when he actually has time to throw, he can’t deliver the ball anywhere near his target.

Russell also doesn’t have any receivers to throw to. Tight end Zach Miller is decent, but Darrius Heyward-Bey is an abomination. Heyward-Bey isn’t even playing like a seventh-round pick; let alone a No. 7 overall pick. I’m willing to bet that Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown’s combined interception total in this game is higher than Heyward-Bey’s reception figure.

It doesn’t help that Oakland has a terrible game plan. The offense would at least be salvageable if they gave Michael Bush 20 or so carries a game. Instead, they keep trying to go long to Heyward-Bey. But whatever. It’s Al Davis’ team, and he can do whatever he pleases.

RECAP: The Raiders have lost their last three games by a combined score of 96-16. This isn’t because they’re just that bad; it really has to do with the fact that Tom Cable will be arrested soon.

I’ve never been incarcerated, but I can’t imagine Tom Cable being focused on football right now. How can he possibly prepare a decent game plan with the thought of going to jail on his mind?

I never imagined laying this many units with this large of a road favorite, but the Raiders are just that lost right now. And besides, Andy Reid has a great track record of winning on the West Coast; he’s 9-3 against the spread when flying the across the country. Those flight meals must give him a ton of energy.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

Tom Cable is about to be arrested. There’s no way he’s focused when preparing for these games.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise where the action is going here.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 92% (202,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 25-16 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 35-21 ATS on the road since 2001.

Andy Reid is 9-3 ATS on the West Coast.

Andy Reid is 13-8 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 or more.

Eagles are 12-17 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Raiders are 8-19 ATS in October since 2001.

Raiders are 11-29 ATS at home the previous 40 instances.

Opening Line: Eagles -13.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Sunny, 70 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Eagles 44, Raiders 0
Eagles -14 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 40.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Raiders 13, Eagles 9

Buffalo Bills (1-4) at New York Jets (3-2)
Line: Jets by 9.5. Total: 36.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Jets -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Jets -9.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Jets.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

If you missed it the past three weeks, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 5 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, we take a look around the NFL to see what has happened since Al Davis pushed his magical red button which caused everything to shift into an alternate universe.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Jets have lost two in a row, and while you can say that they battled two quality teams in harsh environments, one thing that sticks out is that they are 17th versus the rush. What happened to Kris Jenkins, David Harris and Bart Scott? Why aren’t they stopping the run?

Well, I think they get back to that here. Marshawn Lynch averaged just 4.1 YPC against the Browns last week, which is equivalent to 2.1 YPC against a normal team. Buffalo’s offensive line isn’t any good and won’t be able to open up any running lanes for Lynch in this contest.

If I’m right and the Bills can’t run the ball, Trent Edwards will be stuck in long-yardage situations. And given that he’s playing Rex Ryan and his exotic blitz schemes, it’s just not going to end well. Edwards will be forced to check it down on almost every play to avoid getting sacked.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: In a game in which Derek Anderson was just 2-of-17, the Bills surrendered 117 rushing yards to Jamal Lewis. Buffalo just has so many injuries, and it got worse because stud linebacker Kawika Mitchell is now out for the year.

The Jets will run all over Buffalo, setting up easy passing downs for Mark Sanchez. The Bills have massive injury problems in their secondary, so I like Sanchez’s chances of converting third downs and moving the chains. It’ll be interesting to see if Braylon Edwards keeps making spectacular catches. Remember, he thrived on Monday nights in Cleveland, but would always revert to dropping the ball on Sunday afternoons. A new environment could change that, but we’ll just have to see.

RECAP: The Jets just lost two games in a row and have to be angry. I think they get back to basics and slaughter this horrific Bills squad at home.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

What in the world is driving bettors to gamble on the Bills?

Percentage of money on New York: 67% (164,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Home Team has won 9 of the last 13 meetings.

Loser Coach: Dick Jauron is 2-6 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Bills are 18-13 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.

Opening Line: Jets -10.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Rain, 46 degrees. Mild wind, 17 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Jets 24, Bills 6
Jets -9.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 36.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Bills 16, Jets 13

Tennessee Titans (0-5) at New England Patriots (3-2)
Line: Patriots by 9.5. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Patriots -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Patriots -10.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week’s edition:

My Dear,
This is Micheal Koloba writing to you once again,Thank you for the assistance rendered to me when i was really in need, it is a thing of joy to inform you that finally, I have succeeded in collecting the money at Long last.

Hope this mail find you in an excellent condition of health. I’m happy to inform you about my success in getting those funds transferred under the co-operation of a new partner from China . Presently I’m in Europe for investment projects with my own share of the total sum.

Please do let me know immediately if you receive the sum of $650,000 I left for you so that we can share the joy after all the sufferings at that time. I’m very busy here with my studies and the investment projects which me and the new partner are having at hand. This Money, I have left it for you Mrs. Alice, I have tried many times to talk to you on phone but you could not respond and I have no time for myself because we are very busy now.

Regards,
Micheal Koloba.

Mrs. Alice? Why is he calling me Mrs. Alice?

If you’re trying to scam someone, can you at least do some research and find out what your target’s real name is? That’s just laziness! I may have fallen for this if he called me Mr. Walter, but Mrs. Alice? Does my Facebook picture make me look like I’m a Mrs. Alice?

Also, what’s up with the grammar? “Hope this mail find you in an excellent condition of health?” If you’re trying to scam someone, at least get things grammatically correct. Why is he not capitalizing the word/letter “i” and capitalizing “Long” as in “Long last?”

Seriously, this Michael Koloba guy needs to take scamming classes if he wants to be more successful. He needs to study scam e-mails to improve his craft. He’s not going to get anyone’s private info by taking shots in the dark and calling them “Mrs. Alice.”

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady really struggled in Denver last week. He went 19-of-33 for 215 yards and two touchdowns. That doesn’t sound too bad, but he missed Randy Moss and Wes Welker for easy scores.

While some people were astonished by that phenomenon, I’d like to point out that Brady always plays this way against Denver; he’s just 1-5 versus the Broncos. And to top it off, he was going against a coach who knew all of his tendencies. Of course he was going to struggle.

Brady should return to form here. Tennessee’s front four can’t get to the quarterback on its own, which has exposed its hobbled secondary. I expect Brady to play like he did against the Ravens.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Patriots are ranked 22nd against the run this season, so Chris Johnson and LenDale White should have a lot of success here, right? Well, remember that Jerod Mayo will be back. Mayo played sparingly at Denver, but should be ready to go for a full game. He’ll help New England’s woes against the run immensely.

It’ll also be difficult for the Titans to stick with their ground attack if the Patriots, like the Colts, establish a sizable lead. Kerry Collins has shown us that he’s over the hill and can no longer win games by himself. This could very well be the last game he starts in his professional career.

RECAP: This is a really rough spot for the Titans. Last week’s battle against the Colts was their last stand. It was all or nothing. They came out swinging and even forced Peyton Manning into an interception. They were down just 7-6, but then Manning went berserk and the game was over.

The Titans won’t have anything left over for this contest. They’re emotionally drained.

As you can tell, I love the Patriots here. How can you not back Brady and Bill Belichick off a loss?

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

Sunday night was Tennessee’s last stand. They came prepared to give the Colts a war. Instead, the Titans fell flat on their face. They won’t be able to summon the same energy against an angry Patriots squad coming off a loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Titals.
A slight edge on the Patriots; no big deal.

Percentage of money on New England: 62% (180,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Winning Coach: Bill Belichick is 12-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Titans are 18-9 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.

Patriots are 43-33 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Tom Brady is 102-30 as a starter (78-52 ATS).

Tom Brady is 19-7 ATS off a loss.

Tom Brady is 11-3 ATS off a loss since 2003.

Opening Line: Patriots -9.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Rain, 47 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Titans 10
Patriots -9.5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 39.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Patriots 59, Titans 0

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
Line: Falcons by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Falcons -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Falcons -3.5.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’m doing the same.

I received an e-mail from Chris M. who wrote, “Looks like all those weeks of busting Bo-Bo’s balls paid off for him Walter, haha. Michael Turner with 3 TDs and Miles Austin with 250 freaking yards and 2 TDs…crazy…”

Chris was referring to the fact that Bo-Bo had been starting Miles Austin-Jones every week this year. Every week, that is, EXCEPT FOR LAST WEEK! That’s right – Bo-Bo missed out on Austin-Jones’ monstrous performance. Who did he start instead? Just check out his lineup:

QB: Joe Flacco
RB1: Michael Turner
RB2: Marshawn Lynch
WR1: Terrell Owens
WR2: Jacoby Jones (LOL)
WR3: Kelley Washington (oops)
TE: Chris Cooley
K: David Akers
DEF: Vikings Defense

Bo-Bo lost by 46 points. He’s now 1-4 on the season. And get this – he dropped Miles Austin-Jones before last weekend, so he doesn’t even have him anymore. Poor Bo-Bo.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Wow. I’m not surprised that the Falcons beat the 49ers, but I did not expect 45-10. They really impressed me by scoring at will against what was perceived to be one of the better defenses in the NFL.

The Bears also have one of the better stop units in the league, ranking around 12th against both the run and the pass. Chicago also has 14 sacks on the year thus far. That’s a pretty impressive figure to have after only four games.

Unfortunately for Chicago, I don’t see that number increasing. No disrespect to the Bears, but they accumulated their sacks against the Packers, Lions, Seahawks and Steelers – all of whom have questionable offensive lines at best. The Falcons, meanwhile, have surrendered only two sacks on the year. Matt Ryan is a phenomenal talent, but it really helps him that Atlanta has one of the league’s premier offensive fronts.

I don’t think Michael Turner will have success on the ground, but if the Bears can’t put pressure on Ryan, he’ll have fun torching their secondary. He went 22-of-32 for 329 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers, who couldn’t sack him once.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Atlanta’s weakness is its inability to stop the rush. Matt Forte has struggled to find any sort of running room this year, but I think he’ll have a good outing against the Falcons, who rank 30th versus opposing ground attacks.

If Forte can move the chains for the Bears, Jay Cutler will have an easier time against Atlanta’s seventh-ranked secondary. The Falcons don’t exactly bring much pressure, so Chicago should be able to keep up with Atlanta on the scoreboard.

RECAP: As the spread indicates, these teams are pretty even. So, in a matchup like this, you have to look at intangibles. Here are two things I came up with:

As the Bears’ head coach, Lovie Smith is just 1-4 against the spread coming off a bye. For whatever reason, a week off doesn’t help him.

Also, the Falcons are really dominant at home. Matt Ryan has only lost one game at the Georgia Dome, which was a last-second defeat against the Denver Broncos. I think Ryan improves to 10-1 as a host after this contest is over.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A big matchup that could decide a wildcard spot in the playoffs.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Atlanta’s performance at San Francisco has forced this monetary action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 72% (175,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Lovie Smith is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye.

Matt Ryan is 7-2 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Falcons 31, Bears 24
Falcons -3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 45.5. (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Falcons 21, Bears 14

Denver Broncos (5-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-2)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 5): Chargers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 5): Chargers -1.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see the 5-0 Broncos take on their hated rival San Diego. Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to San Francisco, the City of Lights! Tonight, we have Kyle Morton and the Denver Nuggets taking on the San Francisco Chargers! As I said last week, I don’t follow the AFC, so guys, tell me if I should be expected a great matchup!

Emmitt: It will definitely be good matchup! At the beginning of the week, or the beginning of the season, everyone and their stepmother doubt Josh McDonald’s. Everyone say he is too young, too inexperience, too small, too not powerful. Now, he have the Broncos at 5-0. And the only thing better than 5-0 is 6-0, or maybe 7-0.

Reilly: Wow, it surprises me that the Broncos are undefeated, Emmitt. I thought they were 1-4. What about the Chargers, Coach? Do they still have LaDainian Turner?

Herm: The Chargers still have LT, but the running lanes are the opposite of 7-11! They’re never closed! I mean they’re always open! Only it’s the opposite! It’s the opposite! The opposite!

Reilly: Emmitt, my stat sheet says that the Chargers are 2-2. I picked them to go to the playoffs. What do they have to do to make my prediction come true?

Emmitt: San Diego have to get back to the basic. They stop runnin’ the football and they stop stopping the runnin’ of the football. If they manage to do both thing, they will be business.

Reilly: Football is a confusing game. Coach, what does Denver have to do to improve to 7-0?

Herm: Let’s look at Kyle Orton! Let’s look! Let’s take a look at Orton! Let’s look! There he is! There’s Kyle Orton! Look at what Orton can do! Look at it! Look! Here’s what he can do! Here it is! I’ll tell you what it is! Orton needs to… uhh… umm…

Reilly: We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DENVER OFFENSE: If you really want to know what the Chargers need to do to make Kevin Reilly’s prediction come true, they need to stop the run. Rashard Mendenhall looked like the second coming of Jim Brown against their defense. It was pathetic.

The problem is that nose tackle Jamal Williams is out for the year, so unless Norv Turner and Ron Rivera were able to come up with something during the bye week (doubtful), I don’t see San Diego stopping Knowshon Moreno.

With Moreno running well, the gloveless Kyle Orton should be able to beat San Diego’s 20th-ranked secondary. The Chargers have just six sacks on the year, so Orton won’t have much of a problem moving the chains in this game, whether he’s playing in the Wild Horses formation or not.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers can’t stop the rush or get to the quarterback. Making matters worse, they can’t run the ball either. Some of it’s LaDainian Tomlinson’s fault. Some of it is the offensive line’s responsibility. But Tomlinson is averaging just 3.5 YPC and has to go up against a defense that ranks fifth against opposing ground attacks. It’s not going to be pretty.

Philip Rivers will have to beat Denver’s defense all by himself. If he gets the appropriate amount of time in the pocket, I think he can do that; the Broncos are also fifth against the pass, but probably should have allowed to long touchdowns to Randy Moss and Wes Welker last week. Rivers is playing better than Tom Brady is right now, and he would have been able to hit those throws.

Unfortunately, Rivers’ offensive line is in shambles and probably won’t be able to pass protect here. The Broncos have 16 sacks in five games and will put tons of pressure on Rivers.

RECAP: The Broncos are clearly the better team right now, so one has to wonder why the Chargers are favored by 3.5 or 4. It’s not like Vegas is getting equal action on both sides.

The problem is that Denver is coming off two huge emotional victories and has to now play in a hostile environment where they won’t be getting support from the crowd.

Also, for the first time in weeks, the Broncos don’t have anything to prove. They wanted to show everyone that they were better than the Cowboys and Patriots, and were successful in doing so. But they’re 2.5 games ahead of San Diego in the standings.

If anything, the Chargers are now playing for respect. They’ll want to prove that they’re still the kings of the AFC West. They’ll also have a raucous crowd supporting them under the lights.

I’m leaning toward San Diego here, but a lean is all it is. On paper, the Broncos should win this game, but football is a game of emotion. Emotion will definitely be on the Chargers’ side on Monday night.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
These two teams hate each other. The Broncos lose some of their fire going on the road, but they could still be seeking some respect if they are underdogs again.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The public pounded Denver early, but now the action has mysteriously evened out.

Percentage of money on Denver: 51% (282,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Home Team has won 12 of the last 16 meetings.

History: Chargers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 65 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Chargers 26, Broncos 20
Chargers -3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 44.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Chargers 34, Broncos 23

Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games
Texans at Bengals, Lions at Packers, Ravens at Vikings, Giants at Saints, Panthers at Buccaneers, Chiefs at Redskins, Rams at Jaguars, Browns at Steelers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Live Dog: Texans +200 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$200

Live Dog: Ravens +125 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Giants +155 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Pyschological Edge Parlay: Texans +5, Redskins -6.5, Seahawks -3, Eagles -14, Patriots -9, Chargers -3 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

2009 NFL Season Betting Props

NFL Picks - Dec. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)