NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)

NFL Picks (2011): 32-26-5 (+$345)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 3, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Falcons -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Falcons -6.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now 901 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started – a number of lost entries because of the Patriots, Eagles and Steelers. The lesson as always, don’t pick a road team in a survivor pool. I guess I should have listened to my own advice.

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Cardinals couldn’t score against the Seahawks, but the Falcons shouldn’t have any sort of problem doing so Sunday afternoon. Arizona has only one potent weapon in Larry Fitzgerald, so with Chris Wells out, Seattle was able to use bracket coverage on the All-Pro wideout. They won’t have that luxury with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez serving as viable options for Matt Ryan.

The Seahawks don’t have any sort of pass rush, so Ryan should have all day to throw. Michael Turner won’t be able to run against the league’s seventh-ranked rush defense, but Ryan should still be able to move the chains.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks had some success offensively last week because Arizona’s defense isn’t very good. Ranked 21st versus the rush, the Cardinals had trouble stopping Marshawn Lynch, who opened things up a bit for Tarvaris Jackson.

Jackson won’t have that luxury this week. The Falcons rank 11th against the run (3.6 YPC), so Lynch won’t be able to get much on the ground. That means Jackson will have to operate out of obvious passing situations, which is definitely not a good sign for the Seahawks. Seattle’s dreadful offensive line won’t be able to block John Abraham and Ray Edwards.

RECAP: This is going to get ugly. I could see Atlanta shutting out Seattle. This Seahawk squad is miserable, and I’ll probably be betting against them each time they play out of the division.

There are no situational angles to support the Falcons, but I’m still going to take them for a unit. This spread is way too low; based on the talent of these two teams, Atlanta should be favored by at least a touchdown. And I don’t think the cross-country trip will affect the Falcons negatively; on the contrary, Mike Smith is 3-0 against the spread on the West Coast, including a 34-18 victory at Qwest Field last year.

LOCKED IN: Atlanta -4 is available on 5Dimes.com. That’s way too good to pass up.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Who in their right mind would bet on Seattle this week?

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 90% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Mike Smith is 13-3 ATS after a loss.

Mike Smith is 3-0 ATS on the West Coast.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 58 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Seahawks 3
Falcons -4 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 30, Seahawks 28

New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
Line: Giants by 1. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Cardinals -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Giants -2.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 3 has been posted – Arian Foster has yet another Twitter gaffe and then gets into major trouble for it. Episode 4 will be posted this weekend.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It looks like Eli Manning has his groove back. Manning had a rough start to the season, but he’s been the sharp the previous six quarters; he even won the NFC Offensive Player of the Week award for his four-touchdown performance at Philadelphia.

Assuming Manning doesn’t slow down – having Mario Manningham back will only help – it’s tough to envision the Cardinals containing him at all. Arizona’s defense ranks 25th versus the pass (8.0 YPA) even though two of the three quarterbacks it has battled this year have been Rex Grossman and Tarvaris Jackson.

Making matters worse for the Cardinals, they won’t be able to stop Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. They couldn’t even keep the Seahawks from gaining 100-plus rushing yards against them last week. Pathetic.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Like their defense, the Cardinals’ offense is really struggling. Kevin Kolb is getting a lot of the blame, but the offensive line isn’t doing him any favors. Seattle defenders practically camped out in Arizona’s backfield last week.

I really don’t see how the Cardinals are going to block the New York pass-rushers. The Eagles had similar problems last week, and we all saw what happened to them. Kolb might be able to score a touchdown and secure a few long gains with Larry Fitzgerald, but the offense as a whole will be limited – even with the return of Chris Wells to the lineup. The Giants are 10th against the run (3.5 YPC).

RECAP: There are no situational angles to support this play, but the Giants are the right side. I feel like the spread isn’t as high as it should be because of their poor showing in Weeks 1 and 2. But as mentioned, Manning has been brilliant the past six quarters. It seems like the books haven’t caught on yet.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

More than three-quarters of the public is taking the visitor.

Percentage of money on New York: 80% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Giants are 28-15 ATS on the road since 2006.

Cardinals are 13-4 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Ken Whisenhunt is 5-2 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Giants -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Cardinals 13
Giants -1 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 31, Cardinals 27

Miami Dolphins (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Chargers -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Chargers -9.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 26, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Rite-Aid. 2) CVS. 3) Blind Hick.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I could just copy and paste what I’m about to write every single week, because it’s the same story over and over again. The Chargers will look good on paper, but they’ll make dumb mistakes that will hurt them. This past Sunday, it was a pair of interceptions that allowed the Chiefs to hang around.

Based on the matchups, the Chargers should be able to dominate Miami’s defense. The Dolphins rank 28th against the pass, so you’d figure that Philip Rivers would be able to take advantage of that. But he couldn’t do that against the Chiefs, who are 16th in that category. Plus, we all saw what happened in that New England contest; Ryan Fitzpatrick went on to torch the Patriots just seven days after Rivers and the Chargers made four errors inside the opposing 35-yard line.

Antonio Gates’ injury is really having a negative impact on San Diego. At least Ryan Mathews is finally doing something positive though. Mathews has emerged as the featured back and should have success versus Miami’s 19th-ranked run defense (4.4 YPC).

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Chargers are having issues on defense as well, which is hardly a surprise. Aside from Shaun Phillips, no one can consistently get to the quarterback. That’s music to Chad Henne’s ears because his offensive line stinks.

Henne should be able to operate in short-yardage situations, as Daniel Thomas figures to have a solid performance. San Diego isn’t very good against the run either (18th; 4.1 YPC), as it’s missing two key rotational players in Luis Castillo and Jacques Cesaire. First-round rookie Corey Liuget has been a disappointment thus far.

Speaking of disappointment, the Chargers are 27th versus aerial attacks (8.1 YPA) even though two of the quarterbacks they’ve played have been Matt Cassel and Donovan McNabb. This area was supposed to be better in the wake of the Eric Weddle re-signing and Bob Sanders addition. Sanders has been a huge liability.

RECAP: As long as this spread is seven or greater, I like the Miami for three units. The Chargers are grossly overrated, as usual, while the Dolphins are much more competitive on the road – especially in the back end of consecutive away tilts. Tony Sparano is 6-1 against the spread in his second straight road game after a loss in the first one.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking this one in at Dolphins +7. I don’t think this spread is going up, and I don’t want to risk it falling to 6.5.

UNIT CHANGE: I like the Dolphins a little bit more now than I did earlier in the week. I’m bumping this up to four units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 61% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 10-1 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Dolphins are 4-2 ATS on the West Coast since 2003.

Tony Sparano is 18-7 ATS on the road.

Tony Sparano is 6-1 ATS in his second consecutive road game after a loss in the first one.

Dolphins are 2-11 ATS after a loss of 6 or fewer points since 2007.

Opening Line: Chargers -9.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 71 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Chargers 20, Dolphins 15
Dolphins +7 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 26, Dolphins 16

Denver Broncos (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)
Line: Packers by 12. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Packers -14.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Packers -14.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them. Last week, I posted some comments from someone named VikeAttack, a GameCenter poster who likes “sci-fi westerns.” Here are some more of his comments:

1. “ILL BE HEAR MONDAY WITH THE KITTY LITTER AFTER THE SPANKING YOU WILL NEED TO USE IT HAHAHA”

VikeAttack is a bit confused. He thinks he’s talking to a cat and that he can actually hear Monday. Poor guy.

2. “i found a lions fan foolish enuff to give me 14 points ill take that 50 bucks to pizza hut on a lions fan … the kittens going to lose hahaha ”

I’d let VikeAttack take over this picks page, but he’d have a confusing betting system. For instance, this selection might be 4 Pepperoni Pizzas or 3 Breadsticks.

3. “im making about 2000 dallars a year on my stocks ..they are what i call REAL STOCKS not some fake worthless stocks like you have …what a joke you sausage suckers are ..hay that gives me an idea you can buy stocks in a sausage factory …bet you will make a little extea cash and you can get all the sausage you want to suck on… MORONS …… HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA”

Kinda confused. Why is $2,000 a year something to brag about? And which sausage factory sells stocks? And why does VikeAttack think this is funny?

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Denver’s defense has been worse than usual lately because of some injuries. The absence of Elvis Dumervil (shoulder) and Champ Bailey (hamstring) has been huge. Dumervil comes back this week, but Bailey’s status is unknown. Not that it matters all that much anyway; it’s not like the Broncos can stop Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers is on fire. He’s way too good and has way too many weapons at his disposal. Jermichael Finley’s return to the lineup adds a whole new dimension to this offense. Plus, the Packers can actually run the ball well this year. Ryan Grant and James Starks are taking turns carrying the load effectively.

DENVER OFFENSE: The only way the Broncos can win this game is if they hold on to the ball for a long time and keep Rodgers on the sideline. This is exactly what the Panthers did back in Week 2; Carolina’s drives lasted what seemed like an eternity, and an antsy Rodgers struggled early on. Even still, Green Bay prevailed.

Can the Broncos control the time-of-possession battle? Well, Denver is a running football team without a good running back, and the Packers rank first against the rush (2.5 YPC). I guess the answer is no.

Kyle Orton, meanwhile, has been dreadful without Josh McDaniels. Tim Tebow would at least have a chance against this defense because he can move around and make things happen. Orton can’t do anything.

RECAP: The Broncos are the right side. They’re in a good spot against a Green Bay team coming off a victory against its arch rival. But having said that, anyone would be a fool to bet against Rodgers right now. You might as well light your money on fire.

SURVIVOR PICK: I foolishly didn’t listen to my own advice last week and lost with the Patriots. Green Bay is the obvious survivor choice, with Philadelphia and Tampa Bay being strong second and third options.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

If this line were a bit lower, every single person would be betting on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 79% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Broncos are 9-17 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Opening Line: Packers -13.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Packers 34, Broncos 10
Packers -12 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
SURVIVOR PICK (2-1)
Packers 49, Broncos 23

New England Patriots (2-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-1)
Line: Patriots by 5.5. Total: 55.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Patriots -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Patriots -7.

Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: I needed to give you a screen shot to show you how weird this is:

I think we just found the Missing Link. Let’s observe how the primitive GameCenter users try to communicate with each other.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It was very weird to see Tom Brady toss three interceptions of the second half last week. They weren’t all his fault, but that essentially cost the Patriots the game at Buffalo.

I can’t imagine Brady not rebounding. That’s just what he does. Besides, Oakland’s defense is sure to accommodate a bounce-back effort; remember, the Raiders had major issues containing Buffalo’s offense in the second half of their Week 2 contest. As I wrote with Aaron Rodgers in the previous pick write-up, Brady is too good and has too many talented weapons at his disposal.

I’m curious to see if Bill Belichick utilizes Stevan Ridley more often. Ridley, a third-round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, is a very talented running back who saw a good amount of work in the fourth quarter against the Bills. If he gets an opportunity this Sunday, he could go off against Oakland’s dead-last rush defense.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of running the ball, Darren McFadden is really fun to watch. As New York learned, he can go the distance on any play. The Patriots are solid versus the run – assuming Albert Haynesworth comes back – but the Jets could have boasted the same thing prior to Sunday’s contest.

Having said that, if there’s one person who can scheme to slow McFadden down, it’s Bill Belichick. He’s great at devising a plan to completely disrupt one aspect of a team’s offense. He used to do a number on Ricky Williams when he was with the Dolphins, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if McFadden is limited to fewer than 100 rushing yards.

The Patriots absolutely need to slow McFadden down because their pass rush is lacking and their safety play is abysmal. Jason Campbell has been great this year, so like Ryan Fitzpatrick, he could easily torch New England’s secondary if given the opportunity.

RECAP: Tom Brady is 22-11 against the spread after a loss; 4-1 ATS if he’s playing as a road favorite. He’ll be in F-U mode against the Raiders, so I’ll gladly take New England.

Another reason to like the Patriots: This line makes no sense compared to last week. New England was -7 at Buffalo, so why is it only -4 at Oakland with Haynesworth presumably coming back? Are they saying the Raiders are three points better than the Bills? I can’t say I agree with that.

LOCKED IN: I apologize for screwing this one up. I thought the sharp money would come in on Oakland because the public was all over a shady small spread. Instead, the sharps have pounded the Patriots, causing this spread to shoot up to -5.5 or -6. It’s still available at -5.5 on BetUS and CRIS. Get it at -5.5 or -6 before it soars to -7 before kickoff.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

You better believe the Patriots will be focused after that loss to Buffalo.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the public would be all over the Patriots this week.

Percentage of money on New England: 75% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 124-40 as a starter (96-64 ATS).

Tom Brady is 22-11 ATS off a loss.

Tom Brady is 14-7 ATS off a loss since 2003.

Raiders are 12-22 ATS in October since 2001.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, Raiders 27
Patriots -5.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 31, Raiders 19

New York Jets (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
Line: Ravens by 5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Ravens -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Ravens -3.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I never thought I’d see the day that the Ravens would have an explosive, downfield offense. They looked like the 1999 Rams and 2007 Patriots on Sunday, as Joe Flacco effortlessly hooked up with rookie Torrey Smith for multiple touchdown bombs.

Don’t expect a repeat performance, however. You better believe that Rex Ryan will find some way to eliminate Smith from the equation, whether it’s blanketing him with Darrelle Revis, or using double coverage. Baltimore will have to find some other way to move the chains this week.

Ray Rice might be able to do it. It feels weird to even type this, but the Jets are giving up five yards per carry in 2011. I know that most of the damage came against Darren McFadden last week, but New York couldn’t stop Maurice Jones-Drew in Week 2 either.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, New York’s has been non-existent this season because of Nick Mangold’s injury. The Pro Bowl center’s absence has been huge, and it’s a big reason why Shonn Greene is averaging a meager 3.3 yards per carry.

Mangold probably won’t be back, to the chargin of Mark Sanchez, who can’t do it all by himself. Not against the Ravens, anyway. Baltimore has nine sacks in three games and ranks ninth against the pass (6.99 YPA).

The good news is that Santonio Holmes finally figures to be healthy for this contest. He and Dustin Keller figure to be a sound one-two punch for Sanchez, who needs all the help he can get amid pass protection issues (9 sacks allowed).

RECAP: I think this will be a close game that’ll go down to the wire. I’m taking the Jets to cover for that reason, but I wouldn’t bet on this contest.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
The money is on the Ravens after that blowout at St. Louis.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 61% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 13-9 ATS on the road since 2009.

Jets are 10-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Possible showers, 53 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Jets 22
Jets +5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 34, Jets 17

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 10. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Buccaneers -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Buccaneers -9.
Monday, Oct. 3, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Tampa Bay, home of the crappy Buccaneers that no one cares about. Guys, help me out here. I drafted Peyton Manning in the first round of my fantasy league because the jerks in my league already took LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and my favorite player in the world, Michael Vick. Manning has been hurt, so I’ve been starting Curtis Painter because I figured all Colts quarterbacks are the same. Should I drop Painter and pick up someone else?

Emmitt: Mike, I do not know much about fantastic football, but I do know Curtis Paint not a good quarterback in the National Conference of Football.

Reilly: Emmitt, I know that, but I don’t have any other options.

Herm: I looked at your roster! I looked at your roster! I looked at your roster! I looked at your roster! I know what you need to do! Here’s what you need to do! I’ll tell you what you need to do! Here’s the key! I have the key! I’ll show you the key! I’ll give you the key! The key is… umm…

Reilly: Herm, I don’t want your f***ing keys, how many times do I need to tell you? Matt, you were a GM. Should I pick up Cam Newton? I heard he’s good.

Millen: Let me tell you, Kevin. I’ve studied Cam Newton for the past year, and I have to tell you, he’s not that good. The Panthers were stupid for drafting Cam Newton. I would have drafted Jonathan Baldwin out of Pitt. Now there’s a real man. And when I say “real man,” I mean “REAL man.” Guys, here’s what I mean by “REAL man:” I wandered into Jonathan Baldwin’s hotel room with a package of kielbasa. I asked Jonathan Baldwin to ride me all night while I ate the kielbasa after he stuck it in my…

Emmitt: Mike, if you don’t stop talkin’ about homophobe, I’m gonna have to ask my son, the fruit of my loom, Emmitt Smith IV the Third, to stop watchin’ the Monday night broadcast.

Tollefson: Yeah, Matt. No one wants to hear about guy-on-guy action. Let’s hear about some girl-on-girl stuff. I had two chicks in my hotel room the other night, and I had both of them cook dinner for me, since that’s all women are good for.

Reilly: Guys, we’re talking fantasy football here. OK, I’ve decided that I’m dropping Curtis Painter for Cam Newton.

Herm: You found the key! You discovered the key! That was the key! The key is there! The key is here! You unlocked the key! Cam Newton is… umm…

Reilly: How many times do I have to say this, Herm? I don’t want anything to do with your f***ing keys! Bring them up again, and I’ll have Matt Millen shove one up your anus! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Curtis Painter stinks, but I suppose he’s better than Kerry Collins, who had to take a sobriety test in the second half of the Pittsburgh game. Painter missed a wide-open Pierre Garcon for a potential touchdown on his first possession. There’s more of that to come.

I was really impressed by how Tampa Bay’s defensive line abused Atlanta’s front last week. Rookie Adrian Clayborn and second-year Brian Price, in particular, were absolute studs. The Colts are even weaker in the trenches, so the Buccaneers should be able to disrupt whatever Indianapolis tries to muster.

I can’t see the running or passing game working very well. Tampa just limited Michael Turner and the Falcons to 18 yards on 14 carries and impressively sacked Matt Ryan four times. If Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones and company couldn’t do anything against the Bucs, how will the Colts be able to?

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Colts can have success on defense if they’re able to hang around, and utilize Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. If they fall behind, Freeney and Mathis are essentially nullified, making Indianapolis incredibly easy to score against.

Well, I think the Colts will fall behind early. Their offense stinks, and I doubt they’ll be able to put forth the same defensive effort as last week (more on that later). LeGarrette Blount won’t dance around the line of scrimmage like Rashard Mendenhall. He’ll hit the hole hard and pound through Indianapolis’ undersized defense.

The key for Tampa will be if Josh Freeman makes good decisions. He’s made some bad ones in August and early September. If Blount runs well and gives Freeman short-yardage situations, however, Freeman may not even have a chance to commit a crucial error.

RECAP: People seem to like the Colts this week because they put on an impressive showing against the Steelers on national TV. But that’s exactly why I think the Buccaneers are the right side. Indianapolis threw the kitchen sink at Pittsburgh and lost. They won’t be able to muster enough energy against the “inferior” Bucs.

I know 10 points seems like a lot, but Tampa is definitely the right side. Just remember that this Colts squad was blown out by both Houston and Cleveland. The only reason the Sunday night contest was close was because the unfocused Steelers played stupid football and constantly shot themselves in the foot.

LOCKED IN: This line has creeped up to -10.5 in some books, though it’s still available at -10 on 5Dimes, BetUS and CRIS.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

I don’t see the Colts recovering from that Sunday night loss to the Steelers.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 52% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Colts are 43-28 ATS on the road since 2002.

Colts are 19-12 ATS vs. the NFC since 2002.

Buccaneers are 8-15 ATS off back-to-back wins since 2003.

Buccaneers are 4-13 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -10.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 78 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 38, Colts 17
Buccaneers -10 (2 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 24, Colts 17

Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games
Lions at Cowboys, Saints at Jaguars, 49ers at Eagles, Redskins at Rams, Titans at Browns, Bills at Bengals, Vikings at Chiefs, Panthers at Bears, Steelers at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Panthers +235 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Underdog: Steelers +175 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Teaser: Saints -1, Patriots +0.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300

Small Parlay: Rams +2, Panthers +6.5, Steelers +3.5, Dolphins +7, Patriots -5.5, Buccaneers -10.5 (.5 Units to win 22.7) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)