NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)

NFL Picks (2011): 32-26-5 (+$345)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 3, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Line: Cowboys by 2.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

Week 3 Recap: I had an awful first two weeks. I’d give you a detailed recap – still pissed about every single special teams touchdown going against me that first Sunday* – but e-mailer Joseph A. summed it up with one Looney Tunes picture:

I was glad to bounce back in Week 3. I whiffed with the Bengals on one of my two September NFL Picks of the Month, but I hit three of my top four plays, including the Chiefs for my other September NFL Pick of the Month. Unfortunately, some people only bet Cincinnati and gave me some grief about it, including an e-mailer who called himself Yoda:

Screwed the Pooch this week… Look, I get it, it’s a free site, right? So shame on me for using any of these picks. I avoided your Chiefs pick (disagreed with that one) and stuck with my Titans over your suggested Pats survivor pick and sweated that one out. I took a shot on your Bengals pick ’cause I bought into that stuff about West Coast teams flying east but I forgot we are talking about the “Bengals” here.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think this guy is really Yoda. Bet both September NFL Picks of the Month, he would, hmmm???

I do have some more entertaining hate/confused mails, and I’ll show those later. I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

* – About the special teams scores, I’m not going to linger on that Green Bay-Chicago phantom holding call. Yes, it was shady, and yes, it should have been a touchdown, but it would have been yet another bogus cover against me. The Packers deserved to beat the spread because they dominated that game, so I was glad to see justice prevail – for once.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Think center Phil Costa will have four botched snaps again? That was an embarrassing performance on Monday night, but it reportedly had to do with former Cowboy Stephen Bowen knowing Tony Romo’s cadence. Bowen used this to his advantage and was able to fool Costa into snapping the ball early.

I doubt the Cowboys will have anything like that happen to them against Detroit. I do, however, believe that Dallas will have trouble moving the football. The Lions have a fierce pass rush and shouldn’t have any problem getting to Romo, who was chased often Monday night because of his poor offensive line. Felix Jones, meanwhile, could be unavailable because he reaggravated the shoulder injury he suffered in Week 2.

Romo will be able to move the ball on occasion like he did Monday night, thanks to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Once the Cowboys get to the red zone, however, they’ll probably struggle to punch the ball in once again.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Cowboys lead the league in sacks with 13. That’s not good news for Matthew Stafford, who was beaten up at Minnesota because both of his tackles couldn’t block Jared Allen and Brian Robison. Right tackle Gosder Cherilus was benched, while left tackle Jeff Backus could be joining him on the sideline soon if he doesn’t improve.

Much like the Cowboys, Detroit has great weapons and will be able to keep the chains moving on occasion. No one in Dallas’ beleaguered secondary has a prayer of covering Calvin Johnson, and it’s not like Rob Ryan can focus all the attention on Megatron because Brandon Pettigrew is healthy, the electrifying Titus Young is emerging, and Nate Burleson is a steady tertiary weapon.

Oh, and then there’s Jahvid Best out of the backfield. The Cowboys are second versus the run, but Best will be more of a factor catching passes.

RECAP: I really don’t feel strongly about either side. Detroit is the better team, but coming off a major rally like that and then having to travel again could be tough. Meanwhile, Dallas’ struggles after Monday Night Football games are documented in the trend section below. With a gun to my head, I’m taking the Lions because they’re playing better football right now.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

As you may expect, the public is all over the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 73% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Tony Romo is 26-18 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Cowboys are 1-5 ATS after Monday Night Football since 2007.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Cowboys 16
Lions +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 34, Cowboys 30

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Line: Saints by 7.5. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Saints -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Saints -7.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

Vegas Recap: The first two weeks of the season were pretty even for the books. Week 3 was great for the house. Six of the 10 highly bet teams failed to cover; the house won with the Bills, Broncos, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Colts. Vegas lost with the Saints, Panthers, Ravens and Packers.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Jaguars rank fifth against the pass. They’re also fifth against the run. Does that mean that they have a chance of stopping Drew Brees? Umm… no.

Jacksonville’s numbers are pretty skewed. The three teams they’ve played thus far have been the Panthers in a monsoon, the Jets with a hobbled Santonio Holmes, and the Titans, who appeared to be out of sorts in their first game.

I’ll be shocked if the Jaguars can hold Drew Brees to fewer than 30 points. They just don’t have the pass rush; through three weeks, they’ve accumulated only three sacks. No one on the team can consistently get to the quarterback.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: So, if the Saints score 30, can the Jaguars put up 24 and cover the spread? Umm… no.

Blaine Gabbert had a pretty miserable debut. Aside from that fluke Hail Mary completion at the end of the first half, he didn’t do anything positive. Sure, he was playing amid heavy rains, but his pocket presence was just terrible. The Saints can get after the quarterback – they have 10 sacks this year – so I wouldn’t expect Gabbert to have a good day.

Maurice Jones-Drew will have to carry this offense once again. He’s been a beast this year, and the Saints, ranking 21st against the run (4.4 YPC), won’t be able to stop him. Jacksonville’s best bet is to control the clock with Jones-Drew in an attempt to keep Brees off the field. Ultimately though, Gabbert will have to make some key throws, and I don’t think he can do that just yet.

RECAP: There are no situational angles that say the Saints will cover, and I hate betting on large road favorites. However, New Orleans seems to be the right side; I’ve tried to find a reason to take Jacksonville, but I’ve been unsuccessful in this matter.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Hmm… Blaine Gabbert or Drew Brees?

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 88% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 24-17 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Jaguars are 9-1 ATS coming off a 2-game road trip the previous 10 instances.

Jaguars are 6-11 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 10-22 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Saints -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Jaguars 13
Saints -7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 23, Jaguars 10

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)
Line: Eagles by 9.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Eagles -13.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Eagles -13 (QBDK) or Eagles -9 (Young) or Eagles -7 (Kafka).
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I have to address the Hakeem Nicks stat correction farce. If you haven’t heard about it, the NFL gave Nicks a 24-yard completion last Wednesday evening on a play that was originally called incomplete on a pass interference infraction.

I actually lost a fantasy matchup because of this, and I’m almost ashamed to say that it occurred in Bo-Bo’s former league. I was down a couple of points with Josh Brown versus Nicks on Monday night. I miraculously won, but was stripped off the victory Thursday morning because the NFL’s bogus ruling increased Nicks’ receiving yardage from 9 to 33.

It’s complete horse s***. The play was not challenged, so how can they rule it a catch a few days afterward? The pass interference penalty was accepted. Teams can’t go back days later and decline penalties. It’s such crap.

What if this were applied to real life? Say you went out with this hot chick. Things were going well. So well, in fact, that she invited you back to her place. You guys get undressed and start to bang – and it all ends in nine seconds. Completely humiliated, you leave her apartment and know that she’ll never want to see you again. Four days later, however, some omnipotent power announces that you lasted 33 seconds instead nine, which is obviously more respectable. Now, you’re suddenly cool again and she wants a second date with you.

That’s good right? See? Nicks’ receiving yardage… wait a second… I was supposed to be arguing against this. My bad.

2. Speaking of fantasy football, I got a text from my hot female friend Awesome Kelly in Arizona, who plays in many fantasy leagues:

You will like this. I didn’t pay attention when texting “Vick” last night and it auto-corrected to “c**k.” No joke.

I think we can all agree that more hot chicks need to play fantasy football.

3. If I haven’t made it clear over the many years, ESPN pisses me off to no end. Following the Giants-Rams game last Monday night, Rick Reilly said that Eli Manning would never be a superstar.

“Finally,” I thought. “An ESPN personality who isn’t on every player’s c**k.

Naturally, Stuart Scott chimed in with dumb, player-biased logic:

Stuart Scott: How many Super Bowl rings does Eli have?

Rick Reilly: One.

Stuart Scott: How many Super Bowl rings does Peyton Manning have?

Rick Reilly (frustrated): Ugh. It’s… it’s apples to oranges.

Seriously, can you dumb down the public any further, Stu? God forbid you lose the chance to interview and/or hang out with Eli Manning. Who the hell wants to chill with Eli anyway? Need I remind you what Eli Manning sounds like?

I wish I could have been there to put Stuart Scott in his place…

Stuart Scott: How many Super Bowl rings does Peyton Manning have?

Me: One, but let me ask you something, Stu.

Stuart Scott: Am I as cool as the other side of the pillow?

Me: No, not that. How many Super Bowl rings does Trent Dilfer have?

Stuart Scott: One.

Me: So, you’re saying that Dilfer is comparable to Peyton, since you used that logic with Peyton and Eli?

Stuart Scott: CANNOT COMPUTE – WILL DESTROY YOU WITH MY GLASS EYE LASER BEAM!

On second thought, I don’t wish I was there.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: There is no line on this game as of Tuesday afternoon because QB Dog Killer’s status is unknown. QBDK suffered a hand bruise when he was cleanly hit (sorry, Tom Jackson) by a Giants player in the second half last week. It was initially believed that he would miss this contest, but the Philadelphia newspapers reported Tuesday that he’s likely to play.

If QBDK does suit up, Philadelphia’s focus will be to keep him healthy. The 49ers have a pretty stout front seven that can get to the quarterback, and they shouldn’t have any issues skating by the Eagles’ dreadful offensive line.

Fortunately for Philadelphia, it has so many talented skill-position players that it’s going to find ways to score anyway. LeSean McCoy is playing out of his mind right now, and the 49ers don’t have anyone who can cover DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin. So, if QBDK can’t suit up, the Eagles should still have success moving the chains.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I can’t believe the 49ers won last week. Yeah, partly because I had Cincinnati as one of my September NFL Picks of the Month, but Alex Smith was so dreadful that San Francisco had major issues moving the football – until one drive when Rey Maualuga got hurt and had to leave the field.

Smith is dreadful, but it’s not all his fault. The offensive line is garbage. The front has surrendered 11 sacks in the past two weeks, which is a huge problem because the Eagles specialize in getting to the quarterback. Jason Babin, Trent Cole and Cullen Jenkins will wreak havoc upon Smith, who will undoubtedly commit a few turnovers – the give-aways I was counting on in that Cincinnati contest.

The Eagles have major weaknesses at linebacker and safety, so I expect Vernon Davis to have a monstrous performance. Philadelphia also struggles mightily against the run, but I’m not sure San Francisco can take advantage of that. The offensive front just isn’t blowing open holes for Frank Gore, who looks pretty banged up.

RECAP: I can’t give you a pick just yet because there’s no line. Plus, we don’t know QBDK’s status. Here are the two scenarios:

If QBDK plays, I’ll probably take the 49ers. The Eagle players will be able to relax a bit, knowing their precious quarterback is in the lineup against a weak NFC West foe. QBDK won’t be healthy, however, and will undoubtedly be hesitant to run. Since he can’t diagnose defenses whatsoever, his presence could actually hurt Philadelphia. With QBDK under center, this point spread will be inflated, giving us good value with San Francisco.

If QBDK sits, I’m going to make a moderate bet on the host (3 units?). Without QBDK under center, the Eagles will believe that they have to give 110 percent to win this contest. They’ll try harder, and they’ll have a better chance of covering a lower spread.

LINE POSTED: I’m astonished by this point spread. I was ready to take the 49ers at +13 or so. The Eagles are only -9 this week after being -9 over New York. So, are the Giants and 49ers equal? Absolutely not. Let’s go with the value. I’m siding with Philadelphia.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

QB Dog Killer will play.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 57% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 70-50 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Andy Reid is 9-6 ATS off two consecutive losses (3-1 ATS as home favorite of -6 or more).

Opening Line: Eagles -8.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Potential showers, 55 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Eagles 23, 49ers 10
Eagles -9.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 24, Eagles 23

Washington Redskins (2-1) at St. Louis Rams (0-3)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Redskins -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Redskins -3.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

As promised, here are the confused/hate mails. T.J. M. wasn’t too pleased that I lost with the Bengals:

I knew T.J. would e-mail me back with an angrier message after my sarcastic reply. Well, here it was:

I showed, T.J.! There’s nothing worse than being called a guy who likes women. I doubt T.J. is sleeping at night because I said that.

T.J. tried again with another insult:

Yes, it’s true. What’s funny is that T.J. asked me whom I think he should pick between Washington and Dallas in his next e-mail. Guess he cashed in with the Chiefs.

An e-mailer who is not cashing in anywhere is “The Real John.” I had to make this a screenshot so you’d believe it:

I don’t know what’s more disturbing – the fact that TheRealJohn is “bedding” (a.k.a. having sexy time) with American futbol, or that he actually has “20K” to bet despite the fact that he doesn’t know how to spell “betting” or “Walter” or “sure.”

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I said it in my Redskins-Cowboys pick write-up. If Rex Grossman has only one “Bad Rex” moment like he did in Weeks 1 and 2, Washington can win. If, however, he screws up repeatedly like he did on Monday night, his team will lose. It’s as simple as that.

Grossman was strip-sacked and could have easily thrown three interceptions at Dallas. It’s not a good thing that he’s regressing, and the Rams hardly provide a respite. Sure, they just allowed a billion points to the Ravens, but they were in a low following on emotional loss on Monday night. They’ll be amped up to make amends for that 37-7 blowout.

St. Louis can get after the quarterback. Chris Long and company provide a good pass rush (8 sacks), so the front line could force Grossman into some mistakes again. If Grossman stays clean though, he’ll have plenty of success moving the chains against a pathetic Rams secondary.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Poor Sam Bradford. Well, not technically because he’s very wealthy, but he’s getting absolutely no help from his teammates. When his offensive line isn’t whiffing against pass-rushers, his receivers are dropping passes. He might just have one of the worst supporting casts of all time.

Well, at least Steven Jackson figures to be healthy again. Opposing running backs have trampled Washington’s defense to the tune of 5.03 yards per carry this year, so Jackson should have a solid outing, assuming he can stay in the game.

Bradford will need Jackson to run well so he can keep Washington’s stout pass rush at bay. The Redskins shouldn’t have any issues getting through St. Louis’ beleaguered front.

RECAP: The Rams are one of my two favorite plays this week. I have a number of reasons:

1. Perception versus reality. Judging by what I heard on Bill Simmons’ podcast and what I’ve read on message boards, I don’t think the general public understands how good/bad these teams are.

Rams Perception: They just lost to the Ravens by 30. They’re awful.

Rams Reality: They’re not awful by any means. They hung with the Eagles in Week 1 but shot themselves in the foot too many times. If it wasn’t for that Cadillac Williams gaffe, the Giants game would have went down to the wire. The Baltimore loss was the result of St. Louis being on an emotional low. They’ll bounce back with a good effort.

Redskins Perception: They hung with the Cowboys. They’re a really solid team.

Redskins Reality: If Stephen Bowen didn’t know Tony Romo’s cadence, the Monday night game could have been uglier. Washington barely beat an Arizona squad that lost in Seattle in Week 2, and the first victory over the Giants was more the result of Eli Manning playing poorly at the time.

2. The Rams just lost the spread by 25-plus points. Teams coming off a spread loss of 25-plus are 80-44 against the number the following week as long as they aren�t underdogs of seven or more.

3. In a related angle, if a team lost by more than 28 points and is now an underdog or pick, they are 56-32 against the spread since 2002, excluding the weird Week 17 games.

4. Washington is coming off an emotional defeat of its own. I don’t see them getting up for lowly St. Louis after suffering a last-minute loss at Dallas.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

Getting up for the Rams will be tough after an emotional loss in Dallas.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Why are the Redskins only favored by one? Who’s going to bet the Rams?

Percentage of money on Washington: 67% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Redskins are 10-6 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.

Opening Line: Redskins -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Rams 26, Redskins 20
Rams +3 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 17, Rams 10

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)
Line: Titans by 1. Total: 38.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Pick.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Pick.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Titans.

Some college football notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. BYU’s football coach is stupid. In the second quarter of Friday’s game, quarterback Jake Heaps led the Cougars down the field on an impressive drive. Facing a 4th-and-2 situation around the 30, the head coach opted to replace Heaps with a Wildcat scrub quarterback he had on his bench. The announcers were completely confused by this. The Wildcat scrub threw the ball incomplete.

Of course, maybe we should have expected this from a man named Bronco Mendenhall. What kind of a name is Bronco Mendenhall? Sounds like some sort of horse species, or perhaps a food item on a Chinese menu.

In honor of this, I’m thinking about naming my first son Alligator. Alligator Cherepinsky. He damn well won’t make any dumb decisions like Bronco Mendenhall.

2. Speaking of BYU, the school had the dumbest commercial ever during the Friday night broadcast. If you didn’t see it, BYU alums Steve Young, Chad Lewis and Bryan Kehl took turns talking to a real-life cougar (the school’s mascot), telling this particular cougar how great it was to be a BYU student.

Here’s the part they didn’t mention: If you play sports for BYU, you cannot, under any circumstances, have sex with women or drink caffeinated drinks.

Worst. School. Ever. Seriously, college is the time you’re supposed to go nuts, have sex with many women, smoke crack, contract STDs, and sire at least half-a-dozen bastards. Why won’t BYU let its athletes do this?

3. This isn’t college football-related, but I wanted to talk about baseball very briefly. Mainly about how stupid it is.

During some random Phillies game, the announcers said the following:

If the Red Sox, Rays and Angels all finish with a tie, the Rays will decide what they want to do.

What the hell does that mean? What kind of a sport is this?

Bud Selig: Hey Rays, what do you want to do?

Rays: We want to be in the playoffs!

Bud Selig: OK, cool.

Umm… what?

By the way, Phillies over the Tigers in five.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Kenny Britt has been lost for the year with a torn MCL and ACL. It’s a tough break for the Titans, as Britt had been emerging as a possible top-five receiver.

The team will have to move on with Nate Washington as its No. 1 option. That won’t be a good thing against the Browns, who can use elite corner Joe Haden to shut him down. With Washington blanketed, Matt Hasselbeck won’t have any reliable targets to throw to downfield.

Cleveland’s ability to erase Washington from this game will allow it to focus on stopping Chris Johnson. The Browns, who are a decent 14th versus the rush (4.01 YPC allowed), should have success in doing so; CJ2K has been miserable this year, as Tennessee’s front line simply just isn’t opening up any holes for their high-priced running back. Johnson will have to be more of a weapon catching passes out of the backfield once again.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While Britt goes out for Tennessee, Peyton Hillis returns for the Browns. Hillis missed last week’s contest with strep throat, but will be back to work against a Titan defense that restricted Ray Rice and the Ravens to just 45 rushing yards in Week 2.

With Hillis presumably unable to move the chains on the ground, Colt McCoy will have to take to the air in order to score points. This could also be problematic, seeing as how Tennessee is second versus the pass (5.7 YPA allowed). McCoy doesn’t have the weapons to threaten the Titans’ secondary at all. That’ll have to be addressed in the 2012 NFL Draft.

RECAP: This point spread says the Titans are three points better than the Browns. I really don’t agree with that in the wake of Britt’s injury. These teams are about even, so I’ll take Cleveland because of the line value.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The public is predictably leaning toward the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 66% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Matt Hasselbeck is 13-21 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Matt Hasselbeck is 9-14 ATS as a road favorite.

Browns are 3-8 ATS as favorites since 2008. ???

Opening Line: Browns -1.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 54 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Titans 19
Browns +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 38 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 31, Browns 13
MISSING

Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Bengals -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Bills -3.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bills.

If you’ve been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. Last week, a weirdo named Mengxin Wu tried to peddle some shady products to me like “USB/KVM series:USB KVM Switch” and “Wire Tracer Line Status Test” to me in an e-mail. I pretended to be Saddam Hussein’s bastard son when I responded to him:

Mengxin, Hello, my name is Mustafa Snow. I am the heir to the Iraqi throne. I am the bastard son of Saddam Hussein, but I do not appear on his Wikipedia page because I am illegitimate. Or so the overlords of Wikipedia say.

I am in need of some of your supplies so I can wage war on Wikipedia. They must recognize me on my father’s Wiki page!

I would like 13 of Item No. 1, 16 of Item No. 4, 11 of Item No. 7 and 20 of Item No. 8.

Make haste with your delivery. Otherwise, I will hunt you down and feed you to my pet albino dire-hyena, who is very hungry right now.

Kind regards,

Mustafa Snow

I actually got a response for this:

I had to think of something creative to write back to Mengxin Wu or Jack, or whatever his name is. This is what I came up with:

Lord Wu,

Tis I, Mufasa Snow, of House Hussein, the First of His Name, King of the Iraqis and the First Men, Lord of the Middle East and Protector of the Realm, bastard son of Saddam Hussein and rightful heir to the Iraqi throne.

I apologize for the delay. I have been meeting with my council on our impending war with Wikipedia. I’m surrounded by fools! One of my council members is fat, yet I cannot figure out if he/she is a man or a woman. The second guy runs a whore house, so you think he would be cool, yet he just twirls his mustache, laughs slyly and pines over some old northern wench! And don’t get me started on that old man. He pretends that he can barely walk, yet he bangs hot, red-headed whores in his chateau. Sly bastard!

Lord Wu, I require your wares to wage my war against Wikipedia, for they refuse to recognize me as the son of the late Lord Hussein and the rightful heir of the Iraqi throne.

As I have written before, I would like 13 of Item No. 1, 16 of Item No. 4, 11 of Item No. 7 and 20 of Item No. 8.

Since you’ve requested pictures, here they are. This is Item No. 1:

This is Item No. 4:

This is Item No. 7:

This is Item No. 8:

Provide me these wares and raise your banners with me against Wikipedia, and I will grant you lands in the Middle East after the war. Refuse, and I will have your head on a spike.

Mufasa Snow,
of House Hussein, the First of His Name, King of the Iraqis and the First Men, Lord of the Middle East and Protector of the Realm, bastard son of Saddam Hussein and rightful heir to the Iraqi throne

I’m really looking forward to combining the Contra S-weapon with my Blaster Master tank. Wikipedia stands no chance.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Buffalo Bills cannot be stopped! I never thought I’d ever write something like that, but it’s true. Ryan Fitzpatrick is on fire, making it into Mike Golic’s top five NFL players of 2011 over Tom Brady. Golic obviously spilled marinara sauce all over his NFL players list and thus wasn’t able to see Brady’s name.

Nevertheless, the Bills are clicking on offense. However, they face a pretty underrated Cincinnati defense that ranks fourth against both the pass (6.4 YPA) and the run (2.9 YPC). Buffalo will find it much more difficult to move the chains at Cincinnati than it did against New England.

The Bills’ line has done a great job this year, particularly left guard Andy Levitre, who has been playing on a Pro Bowl level. That said, they’ll have their hands full against a Cincinnati front that has generated nine sacks this season.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: What offense? The Bengals generated just one good drive against the 49ers, which was the opening sequence of the game. They stalled in the red zone and then couldn’t do anything for the rest of the game; their five other points were the result of a Frank Gore fumble and an intentional San Francisco safety.

Buffalo does not have the same quality defense that San Francisco does. Remember, the Bills couldn’t stop Jason Campbell two weeks ago. They put no pressure on the quarterback, and they’re not very good against the run.

Speaking of which, Cedric Benson has been suspended for this contest. That may seem like a big deal for some, but Benson isn’t very good to begin with. Bernard Scott should be able to put together a solid performance against Buffalo’s 24th-ranked rush defense (4.8 YPC).

If Scott runs well, Andy Dalton will be able to move the chains, unlike last week. Don’t forget that Dalton was very solid in Weeks 1 and 2.

RECAP: If everyone says it’s a trap game, it’s not a trap game. I don’t expect the Bills to look past the Bengals following their monumental victory over the Patriots. They could, but I don’t think they will.

Having said that, I still like the Bengals. I think this line is extremely inflated based on what happened last week. Cincinnati is not that bad of a team, and I don’t think Buffalo is ready to be laying a field goal on the road (which would be -9 at Orchard Park, for those who think this line is too low).

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Bills could be flat after that huge victory over New England.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Bills -3 over the Bungles? Easy money!

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 84% (83,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 13-6 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Bills are 18-10 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Bengals are 14-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Bills -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Bengals 16
Bengals +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 23, Bills 20

Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
Line: Vikings by 2.5. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Vikings -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Vikings -3.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

Video of the Week: I’m sure most of you have probably seen this, but I made a note to post it last year but never got around to it. Here’s a video of a fat kid coming out of the closet. At least that’s what I think he’s doing. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, of course.

Also, if you haven’t checked this out yet, give a listen to my friend Rellik’s hilarious football song, where he calls Hines Ward a “dancing queen.” I’ve been told the second song is finished, so I’ll post it whenever that becomes available to me.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: You really have to wonder what NFL coaches are thinking sometimes. Up three late in the game, the Vikings decided to go for it on a 4th-and-1. Aside from Percy Harvin, Adrian Peterson is the only redeemable offensive player for Minnesota, so the ball had to go to him. Instead, Toby Gerhart was stuffed at the line of scrimmage for no gain. Thanks to a short field, the Lions kicked a field goal and tied it up.

Peterson has to see as much work as possible if the Vikings want to avoid an 0-4 start. The Chiefs have surrendered at least 88 rushing yards in every contest this year, so there’s no reason Peterson shouldn’t be able to eclipse the century mark.

The Vikings will need Peterson to run well for a multitude of reasons. Donovan McNabb stinks, the offensive line is worse, and there is no downfield threat in this offense. Plus, as the Chiefs demonstrated last week, they can get after the quarterback.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs have no spark on offense without Jamaal Charles. They had ZERO first downs in the opening half at San Diego on Sunday, and they were able to score 17 points only because the Chargers kept shooting themselves in the foot, as usual.

As Matthew Stafford found out last week, Minnesota’s defense is much tougher now that Kevin Williams has returned from suspension. The Vikings have a great pass rush, and Kansas City’s offensive line is crap.

Unlike Minnesota, Kansas City won’t be able to control the clock on the ground. Thomas Jones is done, while Dexter McCluster is too small and brittle to shoulder much of a workload.

RECAP: I like the Vikings in this matchup. Some people might be hesitant to bet them because they keep blowing big leads, but that came against the Chargers, Buccaneers and Lions, all of whom have very good (or great) quarterbacks. The Chiefs don’t have that in Matt Cassel.

I figure Kansas City is really going to be down in the dumps following that emotional loss to San Diego. And if you’re wondering, I don’t consider Minnesota’s defeat against Detroit “emotional,” because the Vikings didn’t exactly throw the kitchen sink at the Lions like they would have against more prominent rivals like the Packers or Bears.

LOCKED IN: This spread is soaring in Minnesota’s favor. Let’s lock it in before it gets to -3.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Chiefs will probably be flat off an emotional, kitchen-sink loss at San Diego.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Despite their close game against the Chargers, the Chiefs aren’t getting any action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 88% (58,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Donovan McNabb is 27-16 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 42-27 ATS on the road since 2001.

Chiefs are 20-11 ATS in October since 2002.

Chiefs are 11-22 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Vikings -1.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Chiefs 17
Vikings -2.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 22, Vikings 17

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (1-2)
Line: Bears by 7. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Bears -4.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Bears -4.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here’s the NFL.com Fantasy Draft – Part 2:

Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 2. When we left off, Jim Mora Jr. just arrived to the draft, but said he wanted to take a pizza break before making his picks.

Dennis Green: If you don’t f***ing make your f***ing pick right now, I swear to f***ing God that I will s*** all over your precious f***ing pizza!

Jim Mora Jr: OK, OK, OK… Uhh… I’ll take Shonn Greene… and uhh…

Dennis Green: He better not take my guy.

Jim Mora Jr: Uhh… uhh… uhh…

Dennis Green: I know he’s going to do it! I just f***ing know it!

Jim Mora Jr: Uhh… uhh… uhh… hey Dennis, who should I pick?

Dennis Green: Why the hell are you asking me?

Jim Mora Jr: Uhh… can I see your cheat sheet?

Dennis Green: No f***ing way, a**hole! Use your own f***ing cheat sheet!

Jim Mora Jr: Fine. I’ll take Aaron Rodgers.

Dennis Green: You f***ing a**hole piece of s***, you f***ing looked at my cheat sheet and took my f***ing guy, I’m going to f***ing kill you!

Rich Eisen: Dennis, it’s your pick, who are you going to take?

Dennis Green: No one! F*** you, Rich, f*** you Jim, and f*** you Mooch! All I f***ing need is Larry Fitzgerald, and I’m going to win this league. F*** all of you!

Rich Eisen: OK, you could have just gotten Tom Brady, who’s just as good. Marshall, it’s your turn.

Marshall Faulk: Who was taken so far?

Dennis Green: Start f***ing paying attention!

Marshall Faulk: Sorry, I was on Amazon.com. Did you guys know that you can get a Hey Dude DVD for $15?

Dennis Green: PICK ALREADY!!!

Marshall Faulk: I guess I’ll take Tom Brady.

Charles Davis: Good pick, Marshall!

Dennis Green: Good pick? Good pick!? The s*** that comes out of my a** could make a better pick! What are you going to f***ing do with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady?

Marshall Faulk: What if one of them gets hurt?

Dennis Green: One of them is hurt, f***ing idiot!

Rich Eisen: Now, now, Dennis, let Marshall just draft his team. I’ll take Rashard Mendenhall.

Charles Davis: Where is Mendenhall on my list?

Rich Eisen: He should be near the top. It’s now your turn anyway, Charles.

Charles Davis: I don’t see R.Mendenhall anywhere, Rich!

Rich Eisen: Hmm… I’ll have to take a look at that. Stay tuned next week for the second half of Round 2.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I picked the Packers to cover last week because I wasn’t a fan of Jay Cutler’s body language after the loss at New Orelans. After taking six sacks and many more hits, Cutler slammed his helmet in frustration and yelled at the coaching staff. He then said he wouldn’t be able to make it this entire season.

Cutler’s right, but his attitude sucks. The questions about his toughness brought up in the wake of the NFC Championship are now becoming somewhat valid. It doesn’t seem like he inspired any confidence from his teammates against the Packers, and I don’t think he will do that here either; Carolina doesn’t have the greatest pass rush in the world (5 sacks), but Chicago’s front can’t block anything.

Of course, it doesn’t help that the Bears have crappy receivers and a non-existent ground attack. Carolina’s defense stinks, but it’s hard to imagine Cutler having too much success against them.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton took a break from throwing for 400 yards, but you can’t really blame him, as the conditions last week were miserable. It was so bad that fans fled the stadium, and the players looked like they were on a Slip and Slide when they were getting tackled.

The Bears have surrendered at least 270 passing yards to each opponent they’ve faced thus far. I know the three quarterbacks have been Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, but something’s wrong. A normal Chicago defense wouldn’t allow a Brees-to-Devery Henderson bomb on third-and-long. Something’s missing.

Assuming the weather’s good, I think Newton will have a decent outing. He threw all over the Packers, so I don’t see why he can’t have success against a struggling Chicago stop unit.

RECAP: The Panthers are my other big play for the following reasons:

1. Chicago is coming off a very emotional loss to the Packers. They threw everything they had at Green Bay, including the coolest special teams play of all time, yet they still lost by double digits. I don’t see them getting up for lowly Carolina.

2. Here’s a cool system that went 15-5 last year: Fade favorites of more than three points if they have a divisional game with line pick or dog the following week (Bears at Lions in Week 5). The thinking is that these teams will be looking ahead to their divisional matchup.

3. As mentioned, something is wrong with this Bears squad. Cutler, who is now 11-22 against the spread, is doing too much whining and complaining. The defense is playing like crap. And the offensive line can’t block anyone.

BEST LINE: The Panthers are +7 -115 at Bodog. I don’t mind laying -115 if we can get up to a key number.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

I don’t see the Bears recovering from their loss to the Packers.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Wow – I thought people would be on the Cam Newton bandwagon.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 68% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bears are 8-3 ATS off back-to-back losses since 2005.

Bears are 15-7 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Jay Cutler is 26-45 ATS.

Jay Cutler is 11-22 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Bears -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Sunny, 60 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Bears 25
Panthers +7 -115 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 34, Panthers 29

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Line: Texans by 4. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Texans -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Texans -3.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

E-mailer David P. worked at a bar in West Chester, Pa. (I worked for West Chester’s newspaper back in 2005; it’s about a 45-minute drive from Philly). David’s a reader of this Web site and also happened to be in charge of posting slogans on the sign outside of the bar. He said I could be named “celebrity customer of the week” and receive alcohol in exchange for promoting the bar and giving him more slogans.

Well, apparently no one who reads this Web site except for David P. happens to be from West Chester because the bar closed two weeks ago. So much for that free alcohol. It’s a shame too because I had some nifty sign ideas for the Eagles’ games against the Falcons and Giants:

For the Atlanta game:

Michael Vick: It’s OK to kill Falcons today!

And for the New York game:

Our quarterback’s concussed, but at least he’s not Eli.

Oops. Maybe Eli is better than a concussed quarterback who can’t read defenses.

Anyway, you may have noticed a link below each point spread and pick that says Discuss Game, Talk Trash. This is for the new Sunday Smackdown section, where you’ll be able to talk about the game throughout the week and during Sunday’s action. Unlike NFL.com’s GameCenter, anything goes, save for the obvious bad words.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Remember when the Steelers used to be a running team? Rashard Mendenhall is terrible. It’s not just the hobbled offensive line; he’s doing way too much dancing at the line of scrimmage. It’s like he spent his entire offseason watching Hines Ward on TV.

The Steelers can still at least throw the ball, as Ben Roethlisberger has more talented weapons than ever before. Everyone knows about Mike Wallace, but an emerging star is Antonio Brown. I raved about him in August, so I’m glad to see him becoming a bigger part of the offense each week.

Houston’s improved defense is ranked 11th against the pass (7.02 YPA), but you have to wonder if that’s a bit misleading. The Texans’ first two opponents were Kerry Collins and Chad Henne; they couldn’t contain Drew Brees in the second half last week, and it’s going to be difficult to stop Big Ben despite the fact that Pittsburgh’s offensive line is in shambles.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Arian Foster should be back, but does it really matter? The Texans were in good hands with Ben Tate, and either running back can trample a Pittsburgh rush defense that has been uncharacteristically bad through three weeks. Ray Rice beat up on the Steelers in the opener, and then Joseph Addai gained 87 yards on just 16 carries Sunday night.

Pittsburgh’s leaky run defense is making it more difficult for James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley to rush the passer, since the opposition always seems to be in manageable throwing situations. The Steelers have just two sacks if you exclude their victory over the pathetic Seahawks.

The Texans should be able to move the chains consistently, as Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels will prove to be too much for Pittsburgh’s old defense to handle. Well, Houston should be able to move the chains through three quarters, at least. Matt Schaub’s fourth-quarter woes continue.

RECAP: I really like the Steelers for a few reasons:

1. Ben Roethlisberger is a Super Six quarterback (Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees) getting points. Super Six quarterbacks are 92-47 against the spread as underdogs since 2003. Big Ben is 14-8 ATS.

2. This point spread isn’t indicative of how good these teams are compared to one another. I think the Steelers are the better team, but the oddsmakers had to inflate this line because of how bad Pittsburgh looked Sunday night. The Steelers just weren’t focused for a pathetic Colts squad.

3. I don’t trust the Texans in a big game. They always seem to find a way to choke. Plus, Schaub doesn’t have the greatest track record against tough 3-4 defenses.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking this one in at Steelers +4. It’s not worth waiting for a +4.5 and risking the spread to drop to +3.5 since four is a key number.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Sight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 64% (26,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 27-14 ATS in October since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 11-6 ATS as a road dog.

Ben Roethlisberger is 14-8 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Texans -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Texans 20
Steelers +4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 17, Steelers 10

Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games
Giants at Cardinals, Falcons at Seahawks, Dolphins at Chargers, Broncos at Packers, Patriots, Raiders, Jets at Ravens, Colts at Buccaneers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)