NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)

NFL Picks (2011): 53-46-6 (-$2,185)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 24, 5:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-2)
Line: Raiders by 3.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Raiders -4.5 (Campbell).
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Raiders -3 (Boller).
Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now only 97 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started. Only two people lost last week compared to the 900 who dropped out in Week 5. One person lost with the Lions, while the other dropped out because of the Saints.

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: If you haven’t heard, the Raiders traded a 2012 first-round pick and a 2013 first- or second-round selection (depending on if Oakland wins a playoff game) for Carson Palmer. You can read my thoughts on the Carson Palmer trade here.

Despite the deal, there’s a chance Kyle Boller could still start against the Chiefs. At least that’s what beat writer Steve Corkran says. Others seem to think Palmer will get the nod. Either way, Oakland’s offense figures to struggle. Boller stinks, while a rusty Palmer won’t be familiar with the personnel.

Luckily, the Raiders have Darren McFadden, who has pretty much been unstoppable this year. That being said, McFadden has a tough challenge coming up against Kansas City’s eighth-ranked rush defense (3.7 YPC).

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Matt Cassel had an awful start to this season, but has improved in the past few weeks. He’s finally healthy after suffering that ridiculous and completely unnecessary rib injury in the preseason finale.

Cassel has his work cut out for him though, given that Oakland is eighth versus aerial attacks (6.9 YPA) and has a good pass rush (16 sacks). Still though, this matchup against the Raiders will be much easier for him than it was last year, given that Nnamdi Asomugha is no longer around.

Oakland ranks 26th against the rush, but has kept its previous two opponents in check, including the Texans, who gained just 70 yards on the ground with Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Jackie Battle had 100-plus yards at Indianapolis two weeks ago, but will be lucky to reach that total Sunday.

RECAP: I can’t really handicap this game without knowing if Palmer will play.

If Boller suits up, I actually would pick the Raiders for a couple of units because they’re a good team that will be playing at 110 percent to make up for their poor quarterback. Besides, the Chiefs are another one of these teams coming off a bye.

If Palmer gets the nod, I’m taking Kansas City. Oakland will know that it won’t have to give 110 percent. The team will be a bit relaxed with Palmer at the helm, which will really hurt it because their new quarterback is unfamiliar with the personnel, and he wasn’t exactly playing on a Pro Bowl level for the Bengals last year anyway.

PICK CHANGE: Carson Palmer is expected to sit this one out. As noted before, I’m taking the Raiders. I’ll make it two units for now, but nothing will be official until Sunday. I want to see if the line drops to -3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The public is all over Kyle Boller. Weird.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 72% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Road Team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings (Raiders 6 of the last 8 meetings).

Chiefs are 22-11 ATS in October since 2002.

Chiefs are 21-12 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Raiders are 14-23 ATS in October since 2001.

Raiders are 5-20 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Raiders are 4-10 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Raiders -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 74 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Raiders 20, Chiefs 13
Raiders -3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 28, Raiders 0
MISSING

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-4)
Line: Steelers by 4. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Steelers -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Steelers -3.5.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 6 has been posted – Andy Reid is in hot water after his Dream Team II started 0-5.

Also, a friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 17, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) The Sociopath. 2) No Space Man. 3) Three Old Men.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It was odd to see the Steelers run the ball so well but struggle to air it out at Jacksonville. Save for the Houston game, Ben Roethlisberger had been playing at a high level this year, while Rashard Mendenhall couldn’t do anything, most likely because of some bizarre conspiracy theory.

Based on the matchup on paper, Big Ben should be able to rebound. Arizona has a dreadful pass defense ranked 24th despite the fact that three of the quarterbacks the team battled this year were Rex Grossman, Tarvaris Jackson and Donovan McNabb. It doesn’t help the secondary that the Cardinals have an inconsistent pass rush. Roethlisberger’s offensive line, which is getting healthier by the week, should be able to keep Arizona out of the backfield.

It’s also possible that Mendenhall will have another strong outing. The Cardinals just surrendered 168 rushing yards to the Vikings. They also gave up 102 yards on the ground to the Seahawks and 177 to the Redskins. A random government agency probably won’t keep Mendenhall down this time.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s amazing how much Pittsburgh’s pass rush improves if the team gets a big lead. Ten of the Steelers’ 12 sacks this year have come against the Jaguars and Seahawks when they’ve been able to establish double-digit advantages.

Can they do the same thing against the Cardinals? I don’t see why not. Kevin Kolb is really struggling this year, thanks in part to his miserable offensive line. Kolb has been sacked at least three times in all but one game thus far, and Arizona as a consequence can’t sustain drives.

There’s a chance the Cardinals could establish the run, however. The Steelers rank just 22nd versus the rush this year, yielding 4.6 YPC.

RECAP: If this were last year, or even the first six weeks this season, I would have made a big play on the host because:

1. The Steelers are in a Breather Alert. Following this “easy” game across the country, they have to deal with the Patriots and Ravens.

2. Arizona’s coaching staff is very familiar with Pittsburgh’s personnel and schemes, given that basically every coach on the Cardinals used to work for the Steelers.

3. Check out this trend: Road favorites coming off standard rest after two consecutive wins as home favorites are 14-41 against the spread since 1995.

Sounds like a 4- or a 5-unit play to me. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are coming off a bye, which as discussed earlier, hurts them because they’re a crappy team that wasn’t able to work on things during the week off. Nice job, NFLPA.

LOCKED IN: Cardinals +4 -115 is available on Bodog. I don’t mind paying -115 to get up to a key number.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

Major edge to the Cardinals, who know Pittsburgh’s personnel and schemes as well as anyone. The Steelers have a Breather Alert; following this easy victory over the crappy Cards, they play the Patriots and Ravens.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

No surprise that the public is all over the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 83% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Steelers are 28-15 ATS in October since 2000.

Cardinals are 13-5 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Cardinals 16
Cardinals +4 -115 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$230
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 32, Cardinals 20

St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Line: Cowboys by 14. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Cowboys -13.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Cowboys -13.5.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “he you big flaming jersey shore hom0. how r ya ? u seem like u dont wanna give the bills any credit. thats fine. we will see tomoro when the real new york team beats new jersey”

Why bother calling Jersey Shore people “flaming jersey shore hom0s?” It’s not like they can read.

2. “anyone no a website that works without adds to do or buying things ”

That’s like asking if there’s a GameCenter person who can put a coherent thought together.

3. “or wat spenk and jets??? u the ghetto azzz hood and PLAX gonna come at me with a gun”

Mang, things are gettin’ violence on NFL.com around hmyall!

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The football Gods must have developed a hatred for the Rams since their Super Bowl appearance in 2002. Sam Bradford finally gets a legitimate No. 1 (or No. 2 for that matter) receiver to work with, yet he’s probably not going to be able to play because of a high ankle sprain. Lame.

Bradford’s presumed absence means that Adam Joshua Feeley will draw the start. I actually think Feeley is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL, but there’s no question that he’s a big step down from the talented Bradford.

The Cowboys are fourth against the run, so they’ll put the clamps on Steven Jackson, forcing Feeley to beat them. That’s going to be pretty tough, even with Lloyd in the mix.

DALLAS OFFENSE: This should be pretty straightforward. The Rams are so banged up in their secondary that they’re trotting out 48-year-old Al Harris. The Cowboys have Tony Romo getting healthier every week with Dez Bryant, Miles Austin-Jones and Jason Witten in the lineup.

How can the Rams possibly stop the Cowboys? To put it simply, they can’t. In order to keep up with Dallas, St. Louis will need Romo to make dumb throws, which he’s more than capable of doing. They’ll also need to stop DeMarco Murray to put Romo in long-yardage situations so he can attempt those dumb throws. The Rams shut down James Starks and Ryan Grant last week, so there’s a chance of that happening.

RECAP: Man, the Rams were a potential five-unit candidate had Bradford avoided his high ankle sprain. Here were my reasons:

1. The Cowboys are coming off an emotional loss against the Patriots. There’s no way they are going to be up for playing the winless Rams.

2. Speaking of winless, teams 0-5 or worse are 9-1 against the spread as double-digit road dogs since 2000.

3. The Rams are playing their second consecutive road contest as an underdog, which has about a 60-percent hit rate (or at least it did prior to the lockout).

4. The Cowboys seldom play well as large favorites. Tony Romo is 6-13 against the spread as a favorite of -7 or more, excluding Thanksgiving.

Unfortunately, Feeley is likely to start for St. Louis, which means I have to keep my unit count fairly low.

UNIT CHANGE: It looks like Feeley will start for the Rams. I’m dropping this to zero units.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Cowboys will be coming off an emotional loss against the Patriots. They’ll be flat for the Rams, who are desperate for a win.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Tony Romo or A.J. Feeley? Hmm…

Percentage of money on Dallas: 76% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Zero Heroes: 0-5 teams or worse are 9-1 ATS as double-digit road underdogs since 2000.

Rams are 28-45 ATS in road games since 2001 (9-9 since 2009).

Tony Romo is 6-13 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving (4-0 on Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -10.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Cowboys 31, Rams 24
Rams +14 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 34, Rams 7

Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5)
Line: Packers by 8. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Packers -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Packers -11.

Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: From reading these idiotic posts every week for the past three years, I think we can confirm that the people on GameCenter fall into three categories: 1) little kids. 2) brain-dead people. 3) losers who do nothing but play World of Warcraft.

What do these three demographics have in common? They don’t get laid.

So, with that in mind, what happens when a hot chick starts posting on GameCenter? If the answer isn’t obvious, I can show you.

There’s a user named Kimbrkitty. Here’s her profile picture:

Here are some of the more perverted comments sent her way:

1. “Hey great pose go Giants”

Great pose? Go Giants? Is this what you say to pick up chicks at the bar? Hmm… I should try that actually.

2. “nice hooters!”

Way to be subtle, bud.

3. “here kitty kitty kitty, Rough Rough!”

Clearly, this is a brain-dead little kid who plays World of Warcraft. Congrats man, you hit the trifecta.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: As I keep writing every week, the only way the Packers don’t demolish any team (save for the Patriots, Saints and maybe Ravens) is if they make careless mistakes on offense. They scored just 24 points against the Rams last week, but all of that came in the first half. Green Bay spent the entire second half trying to establish the run, which didn’t work.

I don’t think the Packers will be as merciful against the pathetic Vikings, who looked helpless trying to stop Jay Cutler on Sunday night. Minnesota has surrendered at least 232 passing yards to every quarterback it has battled this year, including Kevin Kolb and Matt Cassel. Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t have any issues here.

And what if Green Bay tries too hard to establish the run again? Well, the Vikings have permitted two of their previous three opponents to rush for 100-plus yards, so there’s that.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Christian Ponder will start this week. Despite the blowout loss, Donovan McNabb is coming off his best outing as a Viking. However, Leslie Frazier had to make this move. Ponder is mobile, so he can at least avoid some sacks, whereas McNabb has no chance behind the team’s anemic offensive line.

Ponder will be asked to hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson, but you better believe that the Packers will be stacking the box in an effort to force the young quarterback to beat them. Ponder looked good in relief of McNabb last week, but he was going up against a prevent Chicago defense. Dom Capers will throw the kitchen sink against the rookie, who simply doesn’t have the man power to consistently move the chains. Seriously, how much longer will Bernard Berrian be on the field? It’s embarrassing.

RECAP: The Packers are my top play of the week. It’s uncharacteristic of me to lay tons of points on the road in a big-unit pick, but the NFL has changed. Here’s why I love Green Bay:

1. This line is way too low. Two weeks ago, Green Bay was -6.5 at Atlanta. Now, they’re just -7.5? How the hell are the Falcons only one point better than the crappy Vikings? This spread should be -11 at the very least.

2. Just bet on Rodgers. If you’ve picked him blindly since 2009, you would be 28-13 against the spread, including 14-6 ATS against teams with losing records.

3. Crappy home divisional teams usually fare very poorly against the spread. If you want a specific number, home divisional teams that have five more losses than wins are just 26-45 against the spread since 2002, excluding Week 17. The Vikings have four more defeats than victories, but that number will be five after this contest. I feel comfortable including them in this system.

4. Another anti-Minnesota trend: Teams coming off a divisional loss of 28 points or more are 14-28 against the spread since 1991 against divisional opponents.

LOCKED IN: I have a feeling this spread is going to soar up to -10. It’s still available at -8 at CRIS and 5Dimes.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

I wonder whom people are going to bet on.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 93% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won the last 2 meetings.

Packers are 31-15 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Aaron Rodgers is 28-13 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -9.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Vikings 6
Packers -8 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 33, Vikings 27

Indianapolis Colts (0-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-2)
Line: Saints by 14. Total: 49.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Saints -14.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Saints -13.5.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Colts.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees is one of the top quarterbacks in the league, but he struggled last week after Sean Payton tore his MCL during that ugly sideline collision. This was not a surprise, as Payton calls all of the plays.

Payton will be calling the shots from the booth while he heals, but I have to wonder how effective he’ll be this week because he’s coming off surgery. He definitely won’t be able to game plan against the Colts at 100-percent peak efficiency.

Not that he’ll need to game plan much against Indianapolis. The Colts can’t stop the run or the pass. All they can do is apply pressure on the quarterback, which just isn’t possible if they’re in a hole. And considering whom they’re playing this week, it’s almost a certainty that they’ll be in a hole rather early.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I still have no idea why the Colts bothered with Kerry Collins. Curtis Painter struggled in the first two weeks of the preseason, but lit up Green Bay’s starting defense in Week 3. Yet, Jim Caldwell started a rusty, old, drunken Collins for a few games and received disastrous results.

The Colts have been more competitive with Painter, who should be able to move the chains somewhat consistently against a Saint defense that had issues containing Josh Freeman last week. New Orleans has just one sack in its past two games.

The Saints’ greatest defensive weakness is against the run; the team surrenders 5.4 YPC, good for 31st in the NFL. Joseph Addai is expected to miss this contest, but that’s fine because Delone Carter can be just as effective.

RECAP: I really like Indianapolis. Here’s why:

1. The Colts are 0-6, but they’re not as bad as their record indicates. They nearly defeated the Steelers and Buccaneers as double-digit underdogs. They had a huge lead against the Chiefs two weeks ago. On Sunday, they were within three points of the underrated Bengals before Pierre Garcon made sure his Cincinnati -7 bet came through on that ridiculous lateral.

2. Meanwhile, the Saints may not be at peak efficiency. As I mentioned earlier, it’s going to be difficult for Payton to game plan for the somewhat underrated Colts given that he has to go through knee surgery.

3. The trend I mentioned in the Rams-Cowboys game applies here: Teams 0-5 or worse are 9-1 against the spread as double-digit road dogs since 2000.

4. It’s always a good idea to bet against large favorites (12.5 points or more) after a loss as a road favorite. Teams in this situation are a dreadful 7-28 against the spread since 1989.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

Will Sean Payton be able to game plan for the Colts?

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

A good amount of action is on the host.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 74% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Zero Heroes: 0-5 teams or worse are 9-1 ATS as double-digit road underdogs since 2000.

Colts are 20-12 ATS vs. the NFC since 2002.

Colts are 44-29 ATS on the road since 2002.

Saints are 33-48 ATS at home since 2001 (16-12 since 2008).

Saints are 25-37 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.

Saints are 3-10 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean Payton.

Opening Line: Saints -14.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Colts 23
Colts +14 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
SURVIVOR PICK (4-2)
Saints 62, Colts 7

Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Ravens -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Ravens -7.5.
Monday, Oct. 24, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Jacksonville, home of the… hey guys, where are the fans? I don’t see any. If this game were in Philly, it would be sold out because everyone loves my Eagles!

Emmitt: Mike, look at the sidelined. There are a couple of fan blowin on the player to keep them from gettin’ too hotted. There are more fan on the sidelined than there are in the fan of the stand.

Reilly: HAHAHAHAHAHA, Emmitt, you always crack me up. But seriously, Jacksonville, this is pathetic. They should just get rid of the Jagwires and give all the good players to my Eagles. Can you guys imagine Maurice Drew-Jones in the backfield with LeSean McCoy? I’m getting an erection just thinking about it.

Millen: Oh, Kevin, that’s what I like to hear! I get one quite often when thinking about Maurice Drew-Jones, as well as all of the receivers the Jags have on their roster. There’s a 100-percent USDA Man, there’s a 100-percent USDA Man, there’s another 100-percent USDA Man, and ohhh… oohhhhhhh… oohhhhhhhhhh!!!

Herm: Stay in control! Keep control! Maintain control! Control is key! Control is important! Think ugly thoughts! Think of the fat woman gym teacher with the mustache! Think of Andre Smith’s man boobs! Think… uhh…

Millen: Andre Smith’s man boobs!!! Five hundred percent USDA Man! Ohhh… oohhhhhhh… oohhhhhhhhhh!!!

Emmitt: I would suggest somebody should slap Mike Millen upside the behind, but he might become very excitement from it.

Tollefson: I’ll tell you what, guys. I kidnapped 12 hookers yesterday, and I had them slap me upside the behind, if you know what I’m saying. This is, of course, something that occurred once they cleaned the house and fixed me dinner.

Millen: Hookers? Meh, I’m not so excited anymore. And here’s what I mean by not excited. I was excited before. Talk about 100-percent USDA Men always gets me excited. But then Tolly talked about hookers, and my excitement level dropped, then it dropped, and then it dropped some more. Now, my excitement level is very small and soft.

Reilly: Small! Soft! Soft! Small! Too much info! Too much to know! Too much to tell! Don’t want to know small! Don’t want to know soft! Don’t want to know… uhh… ummm…

Reilly: While that jerk Herm is thinking about Millen’s wang, we’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco is really inconsistent, but when he’s on, he throws some amazing deep passes. He hit Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith on multiple deep connections against the Texans last week, and I have to believe that there will be more where that came from against a banged-up Jacksonville secondary.

The offense will obviously continue to run through Ray Rice though. Jacksonville stops the rush efficiently, but Rice will be a huge factor in the passing game, as he always is. It doesn’t help that the Jaguars have no pass rush. Flacco’s protection can be shaky at times, but he should have a clean pocket Monday night.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars were able to keep things close against the Steelers by pounding the rock with Maurice Jones-Drew. That won’t work versus Baltimore. While Pittsburgh is 22nd versus the rush, the Ravens are third. Jacksonville will need Blaine Gabbert to be more of a factor if it wants to win this game.

Unfortunately, Gabbert still has a long way to go. There was a stretch against Pittsburgh last week in which he went 2-of-12 for 1 yard. That’s a YPA of 0.083!

The Ravens have a better defense than the Steelers this year, so Gabbert will find things even more difficult in this contest. If you’re a Jags fan, you might want to skip this game and watch Terra Nova, or something. It’s not going to be pretty.

RECAP: I can’t find any situational angles to support this selection, but I’m going with the Ravens. The crappy Jaguars don’t have much of a chance.

LOCKED IN: The Ravens are available at -7 -115 at 5Dimes. That’s probably the best line we’ll see all week.

TEASER: I’m locking in my teaser early before the spreads moves up. I’m teasing the Ravens and Packers down to -1.5 and -2, respectively. I’ll be shocked if that loses.

TEASER HEDGE: My picks sucked, but half my teaser hit. I’m going to hedge it with a half unit on Jaguars +425. And if the Ravens win by one? Well, I’ve been screwed over many more times this year, so I’ll be used to it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

I’m surprised there isn’t more action on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 84% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens are 13-6 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh.

Ravens are 6-3 ATS as double-digit favorites under John Harbaugh. ???

Jaguars are 11-24 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Ravens -9.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Good weather.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Ravens 33, Jaguars 10
Ravens -7 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115
Over 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 12, Ravens 7

Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
Redskins at Panthers, Chargers at Jets, Seahawks at Browns, Bears at Buccaneers, Texans at Titans, Broncos at Dolphins, Falcons at Lions

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Packers -2, Ravens -1.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440

Teaser Hedge: Jaguars +425 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$210

Moneyline Underdog: Texans +150 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$150

Moneyline Underdog: Falcons +155 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$80

Moneyline Underdog: Cardinals +175 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Small Parlay: Texans +3, Broncos +1, Cardinals +4, Packers -9, Colts +13.5, Ravens -8 (.5 Units to win 24.5) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 22

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)