NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)

NFL Picks (2011): 53-46-6 (-$2,185)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 24, 5:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

Chicago Bears (3-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
Line: Bears by 2. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Pick.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Pick.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 ET – Game at London
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Week 6 Recap: I went 5-7-1, -$1,290 this past weekend, so as you can imagine, I received tons of hate mail, including this:

Even my Facebook “friends” were venomous. Take a look at this small sample:

Click on this link for even more hate mail.

As for the actual picks, I just don’t know what to say anymore. The Panthers played evenly with the Falcons, but didn’t cover because of two fluke interceptions (one tipped at the line of scrimmage that happened to sail into Brent Grimes’ arms; the other was on a screen, which almost never happens unless Vince Wilfork is involved).

Let’s just get the baby picture out of the way.

Some common things people have e-mailed me about:

“This is five losing weeks. It’s not a fluke anymore.” Oh, really? Eleven out of 12 special teams touchdowns going against my multi-unit picks is not a fluke? So does that make my eight winning seasons before this a fluke?

“Stop picking bad teams for lots of units!” If picking against bad teams guaranteed money, everyone would be rich and Vegas sportsbooks would be out of business. The 1-5 Panthers are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS). The Colts, who are winless, would have improved to 3-3 ATS had Pierre Garcon not done that stupid lateral that gave Cincinnati a touchdown. The 1-4 Cardinals and 1-5 Vikings are a respectable 2-3 ATS. The Seahawks and Chiefs are both 3-2 ATS.

On the flip side, the 4-1 Chargers are 2-3 ATS. The 4-2 Steelers are 2-4 ATS. The Jets, projected by most to go to the playoffs before this season, are also 2-4 ATS.

“You rely too much on trends and not too much on how good teams are.” I don’t rely on trends so much as spots. Handicapping the NFL is all about finding good spots and bad spots for teams, and betting accordingly.

I’m picking games the same exact way I did in 2010, 2009, 2008, etc. Nothing has changed, save for my luck.

E-mailer Jonathan T. asked the question:

I keep following you expecting you to bounce back as usual… When are we going to get a winning week?

My reply:

I really don’t know anymore.

At least I got one thing right last week. I had this exchange with e-mailer Ryan B. on Monday afternoon:

Man, I’m good.

Sure enough, Darrelle Revis gets to mug Brandon Marshall and score a touchdown, yet the Dolphins can’t tap Santonio Holmes without getting penalized. At this point, nothing makes sense.

I will have more on this in my next pick capsule. I need to move on before I have an aneurysm.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I guess LeGarrette Blount’s absence isn’t a big deal. Earnest Graham simply picked up where Blount left off and eclipsed the century mark against the Saints.

Running the ball against a jet-lagged Chicago defense shouldn’t be much of an issue. Yes, the Bears just shut down Adrian Peterson, but I think that was more Minnesota’s offensive line sucking. Prior to the Sunday night contest, Chicago had surrendered 97 rushing yards to every single opponent in 2010, and the team still ranks last in YPC allowed at 5.6.

The Bears have safety issues, so Josh Freeman will once again capitalize off Graham’s running. Freeman, who has been sacked only nine times this year, shouldn’t see too much pressure because Julius Peppers is playing on a sprained MCL.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: If only the Bears were so efficient on offense every week. Mike Martz finally found some sense and made sure Jay Cutler was well protected. That’s why Chicago looked unstoppable against the Vikings. That, and Minnesota was sleepwalking throughout the entire evening.

If the Bears utilize the same game plan, they should be able to move the chains at will against a Tampa Bay defense that struggles to pressure the quarterback. The Bucs don’t have a single sack in the past two weeks, mainly because stud defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is injured.

Tampa should do a solid job against the run. If you take out the San Francisco game – the team went across the country on a short week – the Buccaneers have given up just 3.8 YPC this year.

RECAP: The Bears and Buccaneers are two pretty evenly matched teams. I’m going to side with the latter blokes because they’ve played a game in England before. I don’t know how much of an advantage that is, but it’s the only edge I could find in this close matchup.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No bloody psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action between two equal teams.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 52% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Jay Cutler is 27-47 ATS.

Jay Cutler is 12-23 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Possible showers, 60 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 20 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 21, Bears 17
Buccaneers +2 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 24, Buccaneers 18

Washington Redskins (3-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-5)
Line: Panthers by 2.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Panthers -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Panthers -2.5.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Before I get to the Vegas recap, I need to post an e-mail I received from Garrett M:

I have to say that I’ve never believed the whole “the NFL is fixed” hype but this season has been ridiculous. The missed calls, crazy plays and don’t get me started with the refs.

It’s halftime of the Miami game as I’m typing this. Let me get this straight. Revis can throw Marshall to the ground and not get called? I seem to remember DBs brushing against receivers past five yards in years past and getting called for illegal contact. Then Marshall runs out of bounds on an easy TD? Then all of a sudden the Jets come of nowhere and are covering at halftime. WTF?

The refs have been terrible this year. Typically, they don’t call all the holding calls which is understandable but I’ve seen so many O-linemen straight tackling DL’s and wrapping their arms around them and nothing is called.

Still can’t understand how the Stevie Johnson catch didn’t count after being reviewed versus the Bengals a few weeks ago when they were driving. And then Pierre Garcon decides to just throw a ball behind him with 2+ minutes left all leading to a Bengals cover.

I don’t know. I’m losing faith pretty fast here. If Miami doesn’t come back to cover, I’m pretty much done after losing every week since Week 1 this year.

I’m losing faith too. Like I wrote before, I haven’t changed a single thing in my handicapping, and it seems like I get screwed over every single week.

But I thought about it after the Monday night game – maybe the fact that I haven’t altered my handicapping is the problem. It’s possible that the lockout has changed everything. Betting methods I’ve used before no longer apply. Meanwhile, every bad/mediocre team coming off a bye last week played miserably, probably because the players weren’t allowed to practice or look at film in their week off.

I spent all Monday night looking at what has/hasn’t worked this year. Hopefully I can figure this out.

Vegas Recap: One of the hate mailers asked me how I know where the sharp money is going.

If, for example, Team X opened at -7 and drops to -6 despite the fact that the money is on them, that means that sharp money is on the opponent. Opposite line movement is pretty much the general rule.

At any rate, Vegas took a beating in Week 6, with the Packers, Ravens, Raiders and Jets being all publicly backed teams that covered. The books only won with Jacksonville and Tampa.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I mentioned Cam Newton’s two fluky interceptions in my previous game. They basically ruined a potential Carolina victory (not just a cover). The Panthers moved the chains extremely well against the Falcons, but those two picks (one off a tipped pass at the line of scrimmage; the other being a weird one on a screen), ruined Carolina’s chances of improving to 2-4.

Atlanta’s defense sucks though, so it’s no surprise that Carolina was able to outgain the Falcons. Things will be much more difficult for the Panther offense in this contest because the Redskins have a great pass rush (17 sacks) and a solid pass defense (6th; 6.8 YPA).

Washington is weak, however, versus the run, ranking 19th against it (4.5 YPC). That’s why right tackle Jeff Otah’s availability will be huge. Otah is a power run-blocker, but he’s been in and out of the lineup because of a nagging back injury. If he doesn’t play, the Panthers still might be able to move the chains via Newton scrambles, but they’ll be far less efficient in doing so.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Mike Shanahan still hasn’t named a starter as of this writing, but I have to believe it’ll be John Beck. Rex Grossman began the year great – he was flawless in the opener against the Giants – but he’s gotten worse every single week. He really cost Washington the game this past Sunday.

Beck is safer than Grossman, but he’s not any good either. He happens to be an upgrade, but the injuries to Washington’s offensive line pretty much offset that. Left tackle Trent Williams is out with a high ankle sprain. Left guard Kory Lichtensteiger, who was solid this year, is done with a torn ACL. The entire left side of Washington’s line is in shambles, which does not bode well for a quarterback making his first start in four seasons.

The Redskins should still be able to move the ball somewhat well because the Panthers are absolutely dreadful against the rush, but establishing a consistent ground attack will be much more difficult with two missing linemen.

RECAP: Both teams should be down off emotional losses to divisional opponents. I wouldn’t bet either side, but I’m taking the Panthers. I thought they were the better team even before the injuries to Williams and Lichtensteiger, so I obviously think they’re superior right now.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams could be on emotional lows following tough losses to divisional foes.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

All aboard the Cam Newton bandwagon!

Percentage of money on Carolina: 72% (64,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Cam Newton is 4-1 ATS.

Panthers are 27-38 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Good weather.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Redskins 17
Panthers -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 33, Redskins 20

San Diego Chargers (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Chargers -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Jets -1.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’m proud to say that I’m a fantasy football douche bag. One of my leagues is an 18-man roster, $125 entry fee, traditional format. Because of the extra roster spaces, owners can hoard players, making it extremely difficult to bounce back if you have major injuries. For example, there are only 13 running backs available on waivers projected to score points (2 or fewer) this week.

My opponent last week had Philip Rivers and Kevin Kolb, both of whom were on bye. There were a few starting quarterbacks available: Jason Campbell, Matt Moore and Blaine Gabbert. In an effort to screw over my opponent, I picked up Campbell and Moore, and then dropped Moore for Gabbert, and then I dropped Gabbert for one of the players I originally dropped for Moore.

Why did I do this? Well, dropping the players puts them on waivers, so my opponent couldn’t pick them up. Thus, when he sorted through the projected rankings, his best options were: Brett Favre, Mark Brunell, Kerry Collins and Todd Collins. Muhahahahaha!!!

2. Speaking of douche bags, one of Andy Reid’s drug-dealing kids is taking classes at a college here in Philadelphia. I’m aware of this because I know someone in one of his classes.

What’s funny is that the professor of that class called on Reid’s kid when he raised his hand, and said, “Time’s yours.” Unfortunately, Reid’s kid didn’t get the joke and just stared blankly at the professor.

I wonder what’ll happen if Reid’s kid gets a bad grade on one of his tests. If he goes up to his professor, does he say, “I take full responsibility… hem, hem… uhh… I need to put my answers in a better position?”

3. I’m so glad that Facebook friend Jon Z. introduced me to Emmitt Smith’s verified Twitter account (@emmittsmith22). His tweets are just as grammatically inept as his ESPN analysis. Here are some of his tweets:

1. “Prayers of piece to da world of Racing.”

Prayers of piece? You’re only giving a piece of your prayers!? What a jerk!

(By the way, Emmitt changed it to “peace” hours later).

2. “Happy Birthday Jen. Have a Bless day”

Even Emmitt’s birthday wishes are grammatically f***ed up. Amazing.

3. “Sitn on da run way waiting for my flight To leave. 20 min. Now”

Wait, is your flight leaving 20 minutes or now? Twenty minutes or now!?!?!? Agh, so confused!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez couldn’t complete a pass or lead his team to a first down until the end of the second quarter against the Dolphins. The crowd was booing him, and it appeared as though Miami had a legitimate chance to win, even with the bogus Darrelle Revis interception (I will never forget that).

However, Sanchez got into a groove and was pretty efficient throughout the second half. On a short, non-travel week, perhaps that will carry over to this contest. San Diego’s aerial defense is ranked a solid 14th, but that’s because six of the seven quarterbacks they’ve battled this year have been Donovan McNabb, Matt Cassel, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow.

If Wayne Hunter can play on a Pro Bowl level again (seriously, where the hell did that come from?) the Jets should be able to move the chains consistently. They’ll run the ball well, as San Diego is just 20th versus the rush (4.5 YPC).

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers have one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, but keeping things on the ground is probably their best bet. The Jets have surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to every opponent since Week 2, and Ryan Mathews was playing extremely well going into the bye.

The Jets may have to sell out to stop the run, which will only help Philip Rivers, bastard of the Trident. There’s always a chance that Revis stabs Vincent Jackson with a knife and returns an interception for a touchdown, but unlike Matt Moore, the Trident bastard won’t make many dumb throws.

The Chargers have really struggled in the red zone this year, thanks mainly to Antonio Gates’ injury and absence. Gates told the media that he may not be available for this contest, meaning Nick Novak, the best kicker of all time if I’m betting against him, will have many more field goal opportunities.

RECAP: I like the Jets here. I feel like the Chargers are really overrated. I listed the quarterbacks they’ve beaten, and it’s not like they’ve won convincingly. I mean, they only beat the Dolphins by 10.

San Diego is coming off a bye, but I think that could hurt them. These dumb post-lockout practice rules prohibit teams from doing anything during idle time, and most of the teams returning from byes last week looked discombobulated.

PICK CHANGE: I’m changing this pick to the Chargers as of Saturday night. The line movement makes no sense. Antonio Gates is expected to play, yet the spread moved three points in New York’s favor. Philip Rivers is now an underdog.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 57% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

MNF Magic: Teams off wins of 17+ on Monday Night Football are 39-22 ATS since 1999.

Philip Rivers is 12-5 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Jets -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Good weather.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Jets 24
Chargers PK (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 27, Chargers 21

Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Browns -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Browns -2.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Three weeks ago, I showed you the following G-chat messages from someone who called himself “The Real John.” I also made fun of him:

I don’t know what’s more disturbing – the fact that TheRealJohn is “bedding” (a.k.a. having sexy time) with American futbol, or that he actually has “20K” to bet despite the fact that he doesn’t know how to spell “betting” or “Walter” or “sure.”

The Real John didn’t take too kindly to this. He replied with more incoherent messages:

I’ve since determined that The Real John is betting with Zimbabwe dollars (30,000 Zimbabwe dollars equals $1 U.S.) and that he bangs deformed, Asian chicks with unibrows.

Here is The Real John’s latest e-mail, sent a few days after my Week 5 picks went 9-4 (-$270):

First of all, he’s thinking of me while having sex with a girl? Why, I’m flattered. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Second, if you’re wondering what his girl looks like, I can show you. I had my hacker friend access The Real John’s Web cam. I was able to take a snapshot of the chick:

Wowwa weewa, sexy time!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns have a poor matchup on offense. The best thing they do is run the ball with Peyton Hillis, but there are two issues. First, Hillis is hurt. And second, the Seahawks are ranked first against the run, limiting teams to 3.1 YPC.

Fortunately for Cleveland, moving the chains will still be possible because Seattle’s secondary is in shambles. The Seahawks lost their top corner, Marcus Trufant, to a season-ending back injury. This means that they’ll be starting Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond at the position. It’s too bad the Browns don’t have any proven receivers to take advantage of this, although it looks like Greg Little is starting to come along.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Tarvaris “Poop Salad” Jackson played his best game against the Giants in Week 5, so it’s a shame for him that he suffered a chest injury. It appears as though the malady will keep him out of this contest.

Oddly enough, Jackson’s injury is a good thing for the Seahawks because Charlie Whitehurst is the better quarterback. With shutdown corner Joe Haden out again, Whitehurst seems poised to have a pretty solid performance.

Whitehurst played really well at New York two weeks ago, thanks in part to Marshawn Lynch’s best game of the year. Lynch should be able to pick up where he left off, given that the Browns have surrendered at least 100 rushing yards in every single contest this season.

RECAP: This is a tough call. The Seahawks are coming off a post-lockout bye, so there’s a good chance that they will struggle. On the other hand, I hate laying points with a crappy team like Cleveland that is missing its top player. I’m taking the host because I think the bye could really hurt Seattle, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 65% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Seahawks are 14-32 ATS on the road since 2006.

Browns are 3-8 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Browns -3.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Good weather.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Seahawks 13
Browns -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 6, Seahawks 3

Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Titans -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Titans -4.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

I pretended to be a certain portly character on Game of Thrones in my spam e-mail section last week. As Samwell Tarly, I offered my services in exchange for lemoncakes and honeycakes. Unfortunately, the Craig’s List spammer didn’t reply, leaving Samwell hungry for the upcoming long winter.

I received a random e-mail from a Steven Dunning ([email protected]) on Friday night:

Please are you going to accept my biz offer?

Hmm… how intriguing. I had to e-mail Steven back instantly:

I spit on your offer. I do have a counter offer to propose to you, however.

I will offer Marvin Gardens, Ventor Avenue, St. Charles Place, B&O Railroad and a Get Out of Jail Free card in exchange for Park Place. I know this will give me the dreaded Park Place and Boardwalk monopoly, but think about it for a second. You’ll have a monopoly on yellow and purple, and you’ll also have three of the four railroads. Plus, you’ll never know when that Get Out of Jail Free card will come in handy. I think it’s a pretty fair deal.

I eagerly await your response.

I lied. Get Out of Jail Free cards are worthless because he’ll want to stay in jail to avoid my precious blue monopoly. But don’t e-mail Steve and tell him!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: This matchup for control of the AFC South has lost some of its zest with Andre Johnson out. I was looking forward to watching Johnson and Cortland Finnegan battle each other after that fist fight last year, but Johnson will once again be missing in action.

The Texans had trouble sustaining drives against the Ravens, but that was understandable because Baltimore has one of the top defenses in the NFL. The same could have been said about the Titans prior to that Week 5 battle at Pittsburgh, but Tennessee surrendered 174 rushing yards to a a Steeler team that was missing Rashard Mendenhall.

Houston has to get Arian Foster going. He really struggled last week, but he should have at least a bit more success at Tennessee. If so, Schaub will be able to move the chains with Owen Daniels and Jacoby Jones, who actually played well for a change Sunday.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Things are pretty even for the Texans and Titans because Kenny Britt is out as well. Tennessee’s scoring attack seemed completely bogged down against a hobbled Pittsburgh defense in Week 5.

If this were last year, and Chris Johnson was still unstoppable, I’d just say that CJ2K could run all over Houston’s 24th-ranked rush defense (4.8 YPC). However, Johnson had issues doing so against the equally bad Steelers’ ground defense, thanks to awful blocking up front.

The Texans should be able to limit Matt Hasselbeck to mostly third-and-long situations, but that’s where Mario Williams’ absence will play a huge factor. Houston will have to blitz often to get to Hasselbeck, who is a smart quarterback and could use that to his advantage.

RECAP: I like the Texans. They’re the better team, and Gary Kubiak usually thrives in away games immediately following a riad loss. Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off a bye. As discussed earlier, the bye really hurts teams because of the dumb lockout rules that prohibit players from practicing and watching film.

Oh, and by the way, every single game that featured a team coming off a bye last week went Under the total.

LOCKED IN: I love getting positive juice, so I’m locking in Texans +3 +105, available pretty much anywhere.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Battle for first place in the AFC South.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
Slight lean on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 64% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Titans have won 2 of the last 3 meetings.

Gary Kubiak is 7-3 ATS in his second consecutive road game following a road loss.

Texans are 31-16 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (5-4 ATS as favorites).

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Good weather.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Titans 16
Texans +3 +105 (3 Units) — Correct; +$315
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 41, Titans 7

Denver Broncos (1-4) at Miami Dolphins (0-5)
Line: Pick. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Dolphins -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Dolphins -1.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Video of the Week: If you haven’t noticed, I’ve been referencing Game of Thrones ad nauseum this year. That’s because it’s the best show on TV right now. If you haven’t seen it, make sure you buy the DVD. If you have, check out this hilarious Game of Thrones Final Fantasy spoof.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Matt Moore sucks. The end.

DENVER OFFENSE: OK, just kidding.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Matt Moore sucks. He really, really, really, really, really sucks. Yeah, he was robbed on that bogus Darrelle Revis interception, and Brandon Marshall screwed him over by running out of bounds on a potential score and dropping a touchdown. But Moore missed wide-open receivers all night. It was horrifying to watch.

Oh, and what the hell is up with Moore insisting to throw at Revis as much as possible? Is he brain-dead, or just completely ignorant of how good Revis is?

Moore gets to throw at Champ Bailey this week. Bailey will do a good job on the unbelievably overrated Marshall, who will undoubtedly drop more passes. Blegh.

DENVER OFFENSE: Tim Tebow finally gets to start, but will do so without his best weapon. Brandon Lloyd is gone, which further validates my belief that John Elway and John Fox want Tebow to fail at all cost in order to satisfy their own egos.

But Tebow has the heart of a champion and will cause havoc for this Miami defense with his scrambling ability. And if Mark Sanchez can throw against the Dolphins, I’m sure Tebow can have similar success.

RECAP: This is a horrible spot for the Dolphins. They’re going to be flat off an emotional loss in which they threw the kitchen sink at the Jets in the first half before getting screwed over by the refs. Furthermore, teams coming off Monday night blowouts are usually dreadful the following week (see stat in the trends section below).

I’d make this a high-unit pick if the Broncos weren’t coming off a bye. Still, Denver is the better team and should prevail over the emotionally drained Dolphins.

LOCKED IN: The options out there are Broncos +1 -110 and PK +100. I’d rather have PK +100, since the odds are against this game falling on a margin of Dolphins by 1.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

I can’t imagine the Dolphins getting up for the Broncos after that miserable Monday night loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

As you can imagine, the public wants no part of the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Denver: 81% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

MNF Misery: Teams off losses of 17+ on Monday Night Football are 17-35 ATS since 1999.

Broncos are 15-6 ATS off a bye week since 1989.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 79 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Dolphins 9
Broncos PK +100 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 18, Dolphins 15

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Detroit Lions (5-1)
Line: Lions by 5. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Lions -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Lions -4.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here’s the NFL.com Fantasy Draft – Round 3:

Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 3. We chose a new order for Round 3, because it’s my league and that’s what I wanted to do.

Dennis Green: That’s bulls***, bulls***!

Rich Eisen: I get to do whatever I want because it’s my league, Dennis. If you want to make your own rules, be the commissioner of your own fantasy league. Now, it’s Steve Mariucci’s pick. Who you got, Mooch?

Steve Mariucci: Oh geez… oh geez… oh geez… oh geez… oh geez… oh geez… oh geez… oh geez…

Rich Eisen: What’s that, Mooch?

Steve Mariucci: Oh boy, oh good golly, oh boy, oh lord, oh boy, oh gee whiz…

Rich Eisen: So you say you want Kenny Britt, Antonio Gates, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning? I can’t give you Britt because he’s protected by Kurt Warner’s Jesus doll, but you can have Gates, Brady and Manning. That means your team is comprised of Aaron Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Peterson, Gates and Calvin Johnson through three rounds. Not bad, Mooch!

Dennis Green: What the f***!? How come he gets to steal players from other teams and pick multiple players per round!? Why the f*** can’t I do that, Rich!?

Rich Eisen: That’s just how the cookie crumbles, Dennis. By the way, Mooch, your team is lacking in a RB2.

Steve Mariucci: Oh golly, oh golly, oh golly, LeSean McCoy is such a spectacular player, good grief.

Rich Eisen: So you want LeSean McCoy too? Done.

Dennis Green: Guys, don’t you see what the f*** is happening right now!? Marshall, you picked Tom Brady, and now Mooch has him!

Marshall Faulk: Is it my turn? I’ll take Mike Vanderjagt.

Dennis Green: NO IT’S NOT YOUR F***ING TURN! IT’S MOOCH’S F***ING TURN ALL THE F***ING TIME! CHARLES DAVIS, BACK ME UP HERE!

Charles Davis: Stop being a dick, Dennis. It’s my turn, and I’ll take B. Jacobs. He’s tier 1 on my cheat sheet.

Dennis Green: THAT’S BECAUSE YOU’RE USING A F***ING FANTASY MAGAZINE FROM TWO THOUSAND AND F***ING NINE!

Charles Davis: Dennis, if you don’t stop being a jerk, I’m going to disinvite you from my birthday party.

Dennis Green: Fiiiiiiinnneeeeee.

Rich Eisen: Good. Now that that’s settled, let’s move on. Marshall Faulk, your turn.

Marshall Faulk: Again? I took Vanderjagt last time, so now I need a defense, so I’ll take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’re still good right?

Dennis Green: HAHAHAHAHA! NO THEY’RE NOT F***ING GOOD! THEY SUCK JUST LIKE YOUR TEAM SUCKS! AND WHAT THE F*** IS UP WITH MIKE VANDERJAGT!? YOU DIDN’T EVEN GET HIM BECAUSE YOU PICKED HIM WHEN IT WASN’T YOUR F***ING TURN. IDIOT!

Charles Davis: That’s it! I warned you, Dennis. You can’t come to my birthday party now.

Dennis Green: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rich Eisen: Let’s take a break while Dennis breaks down in tears. Stay tuned next week for more of Round 3.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Forum member Zodiac posted the following Tuesday afternoon: “Did Ndamukong Suh get hurt or something because everyone is acting like Michael Turner is just going to walk into Ford field and get 150 yards rushing.”

Suh’s not hurt, but Turner could definitely reach that total. The Lions are 30th against the run, allowing 5.3 YPC to the opposition. The funny thing is that Suh is part of the problem. As unbelievable as he is rushing the passer, he gets washed away in run support. The same applies to Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Turner will be able to rush the ball well, which will open up play-action opportunities for Matt Ryan, who should be able to torch Detroit’s shaky secondary. Ryan should be fine as long as he has ample time in the pocket, which figures to be the case as long as Turner runs well.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions traded for Ronnie Brown on Tuesday afternoon in a desperate attempt to make up for Jahvid Best’s injury. It’s not going to help much. Not that Best was overly effective at running the ball anyway, but he was a dangerous receiver coming out of the backfield.

With Best out, the Falcons can put more of an emphasis on stopping Calvin Johnson. Not that any two players in the NFL can cover him right now, but still, not being able to worry about Best is a big deal.

The Falcons have a good pass rush with John Abraham healthy again and Ray Edwards finally starting to play well. Detroit’s offensive line is a mess, so Atlanta should be able to prevent the Lions from moving the chains consistently.

RECAP: I think the Falcons are overrated, but I don’t like how the Lions have looked since Week 3. They’ve needed a comeback to beat the crappy Vikings, and they would have lost at Dallas if Tony Romo hadn’t imploded. The Monday night victory against the Bears wasn’t convincing, and blowing a 10-0 lead to Alex Smith was inexcusable.

I’m taking the points. I know this isn’t the greatest sample size, but teams that begin the year 5-0 or better are just 5-9 against the spread at home following their first loss. I’m just sharing that stat with you to point out that Detroit could be a bit down this week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 54% (82,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -4.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Lions 22, Falcons 20
Falcons +5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 23, Lions 16

Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chiefs at Raiders, Steelers at Cardinals, Rams at Cowboys, Packers at Vikings, Colts at Saints, Ravens at Jaguars

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)