NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)

NFL Picks (2012): 68-77-3 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 12, 5:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Colts -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Colts -2.5.
Thursday, Nov. 8, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Colts.

Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEEK 9 RECAP: I can’t complain about a winning week, I guess. I went 8-6, +$240. I’m disappointed that I left five units on the table with decreased plays on the Ravens (4 to 2 units) and Steelers (3 to 0 units) on Sunday morning. Both games could have gone either way though, so I wouldn’t be complaining had I lost with those picks.

I went 3-2 with my top plays, so as usual, I’d like to look at what I did wrong:

Bills +10.5 at Texans (3 units): How does a veteran kicker miss a 37-yard field goal in a dome? Ugh! Rian Lindell was perfect on the year before that whiff, so it’s not like I should have seen that one coming.

Titans +5.5 vs. Bears (3 units): The hate-mailers may disagree with this – as you’ll see later – but there is no way to handicap a blocked punt for a touchdown and three lost fumbles, especially when the Titans were one of the league’s best teams in terms of taking care of the football prior to Sunday’s game. I truly believe that Tennessee was the right side; it’s just unfortunate that bizarre things happened.

Now, it’s time to review what the media overreacted to last week:

1. The consensus is that the Broncos now have a Super Bowl-caliber defense after shutting down Drew Brees. Denver was coming off a bye, so it had two weeks to prepare for the Saints, who don’t play as well on the road.

2. Everyone is saying the Ravens are done. Ron Jaworski gave them a 10 on the panic meter. And then there was this by Michael Wilbon: “Not only is Joe Flacco not an elite quarterback; he’s not even an average quarterback.” Overreaction, much? This is obviously for next week.

Fading the media went 4-0 back in Week 6, but it was only 1-1 this past weekend, though you could argue that the Bengals probably would have covered had Trindon Holliday not scored on the longest kickoff return in Broncos’ history. Again, something like that is impossible to predict.

Here’s what the media is overreacting to this time:

1. I still think what was said about the Broncos still applies. One of the NFL Network analysts said that Denver will finish with the No. 1 seed.

2. A lot was made of the Chargers’ Thursday night win, but they didn’t exactly outplay the Chiefs.

3. Everyone’s been saying the Redskins are done – perhaps because Mike Shanahan did – but they’ve nearly knocked off the Giants and Falcons recently.

4. Bill Simmons said he wouldn’t want to face the Colts in the first round of the playoffs. He’s scared of Andrew Luck, but completely ignored the terrible defense.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The fact that so many ESPN “personalities” were proclaiming Ryan Tannehill to be a better quarterback than Andrew Luck a couple of weeks ago is laughable now. Luck has been awesome in his first eight games. The overall numbers are pretty, but what’s most impressive is what he’s doing on third down. He’s both unbelievably clutch and talented, so the sky’s the limit for him.

The same can be said about his fantasy point total in this contest. The Jaguars have a banged-up back seven that couldn’t stop Matthew Stafford and won’t have as much success versus Luck. Stud linebacker Daryl Smith’s absence has hurt, as has safety Dwight Lowery’s. Cornerback Rashean Mathis is expected to be out again as well.

The Jaguars have the least amount of sacks in the NFL (8), so Luck will have all day to dissect their banged-up secondary. Luck will also be able to watch as Vick Ballard picks up big chunks of yardage; Jacksonville’s ground defense just made Mikel Leshoure look like the second coming of Barry Sanders.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Speaking of being incapable of stopping the rush, the Colts are 30th against it. Like the Jaguars, they’ve had tons of injuries on defense, but they haven’t been successful at containing the run even when most of their players have been healthy.

Rashad Jennings will have a rare successful running performance, which will obviously help Blaine Gabbert. Also in Gabbert’s favor will be the absence of key Indianapolis defenders. Both starting cornerbacks, Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers, have been ruled out. Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon will have an easier time getting open against scrub corners.

Gabbert will have plenty of time in the pocket, which is key because he tends to wilt under pressure. The Colts, who have just five sacks in their previous four games, will also be missing Robert Mathis, the better of the two rush linebackers; Dwight Freeney has struggled immensely since returning from an injury he sustained in Week 1, though it’s worth noting that he was productive for the first time all year this past Sunday versus Miami. We’ll see if that continues or if it was just a fluke.

RECAP: I’ve sucked picking Thursday night games. If that weren’t the case, I’d probably have three units on the Jaguars. Indianapolis is wildly overrated right now and should not be a three-point road favorite over anyone. The Colts are also in the unfamiliar role as a favorite following two victories as underdogs. Teams in this type of dynamic switch tend to struggle.

I’m going with Jacksonville for one unit. Perhaps I’ll grow some balls and increase this prior to kickoff, so stay tuned.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have not grown any balls in the past 30 hours or so. I don’t want to get in the way of the Chuckstrong buzz saw. I still like the Jaguars, but for only one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Is anyone surprised that the public is all over the Colts?

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 87% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 17 of the last 21 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Jaguars 4-1 last five).

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 19
Jaguars +3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 27, Jaguars 10
Recap of this game

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at New England Patriots (5-3)
Line: Patriots by 13.5. Total: 54.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Patriots -12.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Patriots -12.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

VEGAS RECAP: Hear that noise? It’s the sound of sportsbooks getting anally raped by the public. This was a blood bath for Vegas. All seven highly bet teams – Broncos, Packers, Ravens, Texans, Lions, Bears, Buccaneers – found a way to cover in Week 9. I’ve never seen anything like that. Neither have the people in Vegas.

“I’ve been in this business for 26 years, and I have never seen what I saw yesterday,” said Jay Kornegay, vice president of the Las Vegas Hotels Super Book. “We call for more money a couple times a year, but never like this.”

In other words, there could be some shady things going on in the coming weeks. I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I love how after their loss to the Texans, the Bills realized that they should have gotten their best offensive player, C.J. Spiller, more than 11 touches. Giving the ball to your best player? What a crazy concept!

The Bills rushed for 84 yards on 24 carries the last time they battled the Patriots. That’s not a bad number considering that both Spiller and Fred Jackson were game-time decisions because they were coming off injuries. Neither runner was 100 percent during that contest, so they’ll definitely be much more effective this time.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will need both Spiller and Jackson to pick up yardage because another key weapon of his, Steve Johnson, is battling a nagging thigh injury. The Texans shut Johnson down pretty well. The Patriots don’t normally have the personnel to do so – at least not this week because Aqib Talib is still suspended – but Johnson being less than 100 percent will make that feat easier.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: How are the Bills going to stop the Patriots? Their defense is pathetic on every level. We saw this back in Week 4 when Tom Brady torched Buffalo’s secondary for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Brady didn’t even have Aaron Hernandez at his disposal in that 52-28 thrashing, so his numbers could be even better this time.

Brady was able to pass so easily, thanks in part to a dominant running game. The Patriots gashed the Bills for 243 yards on the ground in the aforementioned Week 4 meeting.

Has anything changed since then that would make things different this time? Well, New England should have similar success in the running game, but the one difference is that Mario Williams underwent wrist surgery. His wrist had been hindering him prior to the bye. It seemed like it might have been an excuse, but he had a sack against the Texans. If he can rattle Brady, it might give the Bills a slim chance.

RECAP: This matchup is clearly in New England’s favor, which means that I really like the Bills. As you can see below the comment board, teams with double-star game edges don’t cover that often. Here’s why I’m taking Buffalo for three units:

1. This is too many points for a divisional matchup. If you’ve bet on every single double-digit road divisional underdog in the middle of the season over the past quarter century, you’d be rich.

2. Speaking of the spread, Brady seldom covers as a large favorite. He’s just 7-18 in that regard when laying nine points or more in the past five years.

3. I like that the Bills are in a revenge situation; betting on teams playing a divisional road game attempting to avenge a blowout loss to the same opponent is usually a lucrative proposition.

4. I enjoy fading public overreaction. I feel like everyone thinks the Patriots are awesome following that blowout victory over the Rams. Why has everyone quickly forgotten about the loss to Seattle and near-defeat versus the Jets?

5. As with the Jaguars, I’m fading the public. Vegas lost so much money that I think we’re bound to see some shady stuff go down in these highly bet one-sided games.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If I weren’t so scared of betting again Brady, I’d bump this up to four or maybe even five units, but I have to limit this to three units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

The public is pounding the Patriots, predictably.

Percentage of money on New England: 80% (69,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Patriots have won 17 of the last 18 meetings.

Patriots are 39-22 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 140-47 as a starter (109-74 ATS).

Tom Brady is 17-25 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (7-18 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -12.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Patriots 24, Bills 17
Bills +13.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 54 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 37, Bills 31

New York Giants (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
Line: Giants by 4.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Giants -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Giants -4.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. I only saw three on my picks page:

This is why you suck at handicapping games, Walt. Your entire piece about the Broncos-Bengals game polishes Denver and trashes Cincinnati… yet you’re laying a unit on the Bengals lol.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, I dropped my pick to zero units. So I don’t completely suck at handicapping, OK?

Good job on that Bears/Titans write-up. 17-16 Bears loss is totally similar to the 51-20 drubbing that occurred this afternoon. C’mon Walt you’re practically worthless. And your jokes kinda suck these days.

Umm… no. I was right about the game. Take away the blocked punt, three fumbles, the pick-six and the Devin Hester punt return, and the score would have been 17-16. Oh, and my mom reads this Web site and she told me that my jokes are awesome, so you’re wrong!

I should start a pick em website. Walter is knowsvery little about The NFL. I read the Bears Titans story of his and thought this guy is totally clueless. What a joke of a website. I picked the bears because the titans have no way of matching up with the position matchups. Walter… go do something else and save your time.

I would follow your advice and do something else, but I’m intrigued by this “Bears Titans story” business. I had no idea I wrote a story about the game. Perhaps I should focus on writing fewer stories and more game previews.

Here are three hate mails pertaining to my NFL Power Rankings:

Your website has to be the elcerontic Swiss army knife for this topic.

An elcerontic knife? Sounds kinky.

YOU WILL LOOK EXTRA RETARDED W-H-E-N THE BEARS WIN THE WHOLE THING. AS I SAID, YOU WILL BOW TO THE SUPERIORITY OF THE CHI BEARS. 6 ABOUT TO BE 7-1, WITH AN OFFENSE STILL LEARNING TO GEL. WHAT A LUXURY, TO BE SO SUPERIOR. HIGH CEILING BEARS, YOU B1TCHES, BUT YOU CAN GO AHEAD AND KEEP GOBBLING THE GIANTS WHO BARELY SQUEAKED BY DALLAS (WHOM THE BEARS THRASHED). YOU TARDS AT WALTERSOCCER (AGAIN, YOU DONT HAVE THE CRED TO BE LABELED “FOOTBALL”) WILL BE HUMBLED AND HUMILIATED FOR YOUR ANAL-YSIS. BEARDOWN ON ALL YOU H0MOS, THE WORLD CLASS CITY OF CHI WILL TAKE THEIR RESPECT BACK FROM YOU OUT OF TOWN BLOWHARDS.

I wonder if this guy’s keyboard gets messed up from all of the saliva and foam that drips out of his mouth as he’s slamming his fists on his keyboard. And what the hell is up with separating the letters in “w-h-e-n?” I could understand if he did that with the words “retarded” or “win” but “when?”

MORE DOUBLE STANDARD HYPOCRISY FROM THE CLOWNS AT WALTERSOCCER, WHO KNOW D1CK ABOUT REAL FOOTBALL. BEARDOWN ALL DAY

I love how this raging lunatic needed two posts to get his point across.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Think Eli Manning’s in a slump? The good people at ESPN have been kind enough to point this out just a couple of times in the past few days. There’s no denying that Manning is struggling, but maybe he’ll get some pointers from his big brother, who just battled the Bengals. Then again, Peyton did throw two picks versus Cincinnati, so maybe Eli shouldn’t listen too carefully.

Pass protection was an issue against the Steelers. I have no idea what Tom Coughlin was thinking when he benched the effective Sean Locklear in favor of the anemic David Diehl at right tackle. Locklear had been blocking very well in relief of the injured Diehl, but the latter lineman surrendered a sack to the Steelers almost instantly. It made no sense.

Meanwhile, Hakeem Nicks’ injury is also problematic because he can’t get open. Nicks aggravated his knee again a couple of days ago, so the wise thing for him to do would be to sit out for a couple of weeks. Player arrogance will interfere with that strategy, unfortunately, and Nicks will continue to hurt more than help the Giants.

Having said all of this, there will be scoring opportunities against the Bengals, who, for some reason, continue to trot out Terence Newman and Pacman Jones at cornerback. Manning will welcome this, given that Cincinnati has a solid pass rush (23 sacks, tied for 10th in the NFL) and a decent run defense that has limited the past four opponents to 3.7 YPC.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It was hardly surprising to see Ben Roethlisberger lead a double-digit fourth-quarter comeback this past Sunday. The Giants have had issues in their back seven all year, thanks to injuries, poor play out of middle linebacker Chase Blackburn and surprising regression to Corey Webster. New York just doesn’t have the personnel to stop Andy Dalton and A.J. Green right now.

The Giants at least won’t have to worry about stopping the run as much this time. Isaac Redman and the Steelers trampled New York for 160 rushing yards on just 30 carries, but Cincinnati is incapable of duplicating that feat because BenJarvus Green-Ellis is too sluggish of a runner. The Law Firm is averaging just 3.4 YPC and hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards on the ground all year.

Keeping the Bengals in long-yardage situations should at least limit Cincinnati’s offense. Justin Tuck is heating up, while Jason Pierre-Paul has been dominant all year, so if the Giants force the Bengals into obvious passing downs, they could come away with several sacks.

RECAP: I’m taking the Bengals for three units. This is yet another fade of the public. Besides, this spread is completely out of whack. I don’t get how the Giants can be considered seven points better than Cincinnati considering how poorly they’re playing right now. This game also doesn’t mean anything to them; they’re playing an unfamiliar non-conference foe and are comfortably in first place.

Fading road, non-divisional favorites coming off a loss is usually a good proposition. An even better situation also favors Cincinnati. Home underdogs that just suffered a defeat as a home underdog the previous week cover about two-thirds of the time.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has really changed, so I’m keeping this at three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

This game is much more important to Cincinnati.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Everyone is betting on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 86% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 19-11 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Giants -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Giants 24
Bengals +4.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 31, Giants 13

San Diego Chargers (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Buccaneers -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Buccaneers -3.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. He didn’t update his Web site, https://sites.google.com/site/realjohnmossfootball/ this past week, but I was able to find an e-mail where he wrote “hee haw got u” after he sent me a link:

P***Y LICKING – NOM NOM NOM NOM…

It’s not pornographic, so you may be either relieved or disappointed. Nevertheless, click on the link because it’s hilarious.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Think Vincent Jackson wants to get back at his former team? Jackson has been fantastic this season for the Buccaneers. His downfield presence has opened things up underneath for Mike Williams, who is actually trying for a change right now, and has also made Josh Freeman into a better quarterback. Freeman amazingly has 11 touchdowns and just one interception since his Week 5 bye.

Freeman’s hot streak should continue. The Chargers have major issues in their back seven. Antoine Cason, Atari Bigby and Marcus Gilchrist have been torched frequently this season, while linebacker Jarret Johnson, who is supposed to excel in coverage, has struggled in that area. Making matters worse, San Diego has a poor pass rush that has just six sacks in its previous four games. Freeman will have all day to dissect San Diego’s struggling defense.

Of course, we can’t forget about the Muscle Hamster. Doug Martin nearly broke Adrian Peterson’s single-game rushing record at Oakland. The Chargers just allowed another rookie runner, Trent Richardson, to rush for 122 yards on 24 carries a couple of weeks ago. There’s no reason Martin won’t be able to duplicate that feat.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers should also be able to put together consistent scoring drives. It’s no secret that Tampa Bay’s secondary has glaring issues. Top cornerback Aqib Talib has just been traded, though he was suspended for a few games anyway. The Buccaneers consequently are 29th against the pass (8.03 YPA).

Philip Rivers has struggled this year, but he showed signs of life against the Chiefs this past Thursday. Granted, it was Kansas City, but it’s not like Tampa Bay’s stop unit is much better at containing aerial offenses. It’s sounding like Rivers won’t have Robert Meachem at his disposal again, but that’s a good thing because Meachem, a complete waste of money, is one of the most inefficient receivers in the NFL. I liked what I saw out of Danario Alexander last week; he can be a decent starter if he can somehow manage to stay healthy.

The Chargers ran all over the Chiefs, gaining 125 yards on the ground. However, the one thing the Buccaneers do well defensively is contain the rush. They actually rank third in that department (3.7 YPC). We’ll see how Rivers looks if he can’t rely on Ryan Mathews picking up big chunks of yardage.

RECAP: This is a tough call. On one hand, the Buccaneers are in an unenviable position of being a favorite following consecutive victories as underdogs. On the other hand, the Chargers always suck playing 1 p.m. games in the Eastern Time Zone, as we just saw when they lost at Cleveland.

I’d take Tampa with a gun to my head, only because of Jackson. He might be able to give his coaching staff some insight into San Diego’s schemes and personnel.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jared Gaither is out, but I can’t bring myself to bet on the Buccaneers because of the poor dynamic they’re in.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 55% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Philip Rivers is 15-10 ATS as an underdog.

Norv Turner is 1-5 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Buccaneers are 8-16 ATS off back-to-back wins since 2003.

Buccaneers are 7-19 ATS at home in the previous 26 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 26, Chargers 20
Buccaneers -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 34, Chargers 24

Denver Broncos (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-6)
Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Broncos -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Broncos -3.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. So, it’s come to my attention that some people have copied me recently. E-mailer Kevin R. alerted me that ESPN’s Greg Garber recently published an article revealing the blueprint behind winning the Super Bowl. Here’s the key excerpt:

Which means a team has a chance if it does these three basic things:

Start an elite quarterback.

Protect that quarterback.

Get to the opposing quarterback.

Sound familiar? If you’ve been reading this Web site for a while, it sure does. Here’s what I wrote back in 2010: “To win consistently in the NFL, you need to have a quarterback, you need to protect your quarterback and you need to get to the other quarterback.”

Meanwhile, Bill Simmons also copied what I said. Yes! THE Bill Simmons, @sportsguy33.

In the Week 9 lines podcast with Cousin Sal, Simmons said, “You definitely would be the No. 1 draft pick if I had gone into the last weekend and had been asked the question, ‘Who’s going to come back down from 23 points, take the lead, blow the lead, and then score the apparent, go-ahead game-winning touchdown but the guy’s fingertip was out of bounds and it got nullified. I would have picked Dallas.”

More than 24 hours earlier, I wrote this in my Week 8 NFL Game Recaps posted Sunday night: “Which NFL teams could’ve turned it over five times, gone down 23-0, came back to take the lead, surrendered the advantage on a give-away, put themselves in position to win the game and then lost it because a receiver’s fingertips were out of bounds? Perhaps the Chargers and the Eagles, but if you’re having a fantasy draft of all the teams that would have been guilty of that horrifying sequence of events, the Cowboys would easily be No. 1.”

It’s paraphrased, but close enough. So, am I mad about this? No! I love how ESPN is stealing my ideas. It’d be nice to get credit, but hey, if I can contribute to the worldwide leader’s success, I’m all for it.

2. I have to mention two instances of fantasy football a**holes. I am involved in one of them. In one of my leagues (standard scoring, $125 entry), my opponent had QB Dog Killer as his only quarterback for some reason. It was Week 7, so the Eagles were on a bye. This guy obviously didn’t realize that he didn’t have a backup, so after discovering that he’d have to pick someone up, I dropped some of my scrub running backs and receivers and picked up every single starting quarterback on waivers. The only one I didn’t have room for was Blaine Gabbert. As a result, my opponent had to start Gabbert – who threw for just 110 yards and one touchdown. Muhahahaha!!!

My friend and forum member Injured Reserve did something similar. He was going up against a guy whose team name is Cookies & MILF. Cookies & MILF had a bunch of running backs on byes, so he had no RB2. IR picked up most of the viable starting running backs, forcing Cookies & MILF to start Dexter McCluster, who scored a grand total of minus-1 points.

3. I recently stated that I hadn’t made a fantasy trade in several years because I always receive terrible offers. Well, I finally got one I liked a week ago and pulled the trigger. Someone offered me Calvin Johnson for Darren McFadden and Pierre Garcon. I loved the idea of buying Megatron low.

I feel like this was a good trade for both parties (prior to the McFadden injury, that is). But as I said, many other potential deals make no sense. I can’t tell you how many e-mails I receive that go like, “Hey should I trade Percy Harvin for Roddy White?”

What the hell’s the point of doing something like that? Both players are receivers, so why trade them? If the players are even, it doesn’t benefit anyone.

DENVER OFFENSE: Despite missing top corner Chris Gamble and linebacker Jon Beason, the Panthers have been much better defensively since their Week 6 bye. The difference has been Luke Kuechly, who has dominated ever since moving into the middle linebacker position. Despite battling likes of Alfred Morris and Matt Forte, Carolina has surrendered 3.69 yards per carry in the past three weeks, which would be good for fifth in the NFL if translated over the entire season. They would actually be tied with San Francisco under those circumstances. So, as you can imagine, Willis McGahee has a tough task ahead of him.

Carolina has also been great against the pass since the bye. The team has permitted just 6.2 yards per attempt since Week 6 despite going up against Robert Griffin, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. That number would be good enough for sixth in the NFL – which is amazing when you think about how effortlessly quarterbacks like Eli Manning and Matt Ryan used to torch its stop unit.

Of course, stopping a red-hot Peyton Manning is easier said than done. He had a couple of goofy interceptions at Cincinnati, but was great otherwise. What really hurt him were some drops. His supporting cast has actually been quite careless with the football all season, so the Panthers will have to hope for more drops and fumbles.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Denver’s defense has also been very good since the bye. It had that memorable performance against Drew Brees on Sunday night and did enough to contain Andy Dalton. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are as potent as ever, creating havoc for opposing quarterbacks. The Panthers don’t have the best pass protection in the NFL, so Cam Newton will have to escape the pocket and scramble for yardage more than he’d like to. Newton certainly didn’t have that issue against the Brian Orakpo-less Redskins, but things will be different this week.

Newton will find it difficult to throw even on the rare occasions in which he has time in the pocket. Champ Bailey will erase a declining Steve Smith, so all Newton will have to turn to is Greg Olsen. No. 2 wideout Brandon LaFell figures to be out again.

Oh, and forget about Carolina running the ball. The blocking is terrible and Jonathan Stewart just isn’t good enough to overcome that. The Broncos are seventh against the rush (3.8 YPC) anyway, so the only Panther moving the chains on the ground will be Newton.

RECAP: I have a slight lean toward Carolina. The Broncos are in a look-ahead spot, and there is simply too much action on them following a Vegas blood bath. Still though, there’s not enough for me to bet much on the Panthers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to bump this up to two units. After thinking about it, I really like the spot the Panthers are in.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Broncos have two divisional battles coming up after this meaningless non-conference tilt.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

There’s so much action on the Broncos, yet the spread continues to move in Carolina’s favor.

Percentage of money on Denver: 88% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Broncos are 10-21 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Panthers are 30-44 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Broncos -5.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Broncos 23, Panthers 22
Panthers +3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 36, Panthers 14

Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-4)
Line: Dolphins by 6.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Dolphins -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Dolphins -6.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I’m so upset I didn’t save a screen shot of this, but the main banner on Western Kentucky’s Web site, WKUSports.com, had the words “BOWL ELIGIBLE!!!!” covering their entire front page last week. Congrats, Western Kentucky. You’re going to a meaningless bowl that will be watched by a grand total of 50 people. That’s something to look forward to.

2. I’m so happy that there’s a four-team playoff coming in 2014. Maybe that’s why my College Football Picks have been better this year (knock on wood). What I can’t understand though is why can’t they have one this year? It’s the perfect season to have one if Alabama, Kansas State, Notre Dame and Oregon all finish undefeated.

If the NCAA had any balls, it would put these four teams together into a playoff in the event that they’re all unbeaten at the very end. I really don’t understand what the downside to this would be. Are they afraid of all the incredible TV ratings they’ll get?

3. It’s time for some more ESPN bashing. E-mailer Kyle T. sent this hilarious screen shot of ESPN’s home page on Saturday evening:

Oops! Someone hit the upload button a bit prematurely.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The big injury news relating to this contest is that Jake Locker is expected to start. Now, that’s a coincidence. Locker’s shoulder has amazingly healed just one week after Matt Hasselbeck imploded? I can’t believe it. What great timing!

The Titans will need Locker’s play-making ability on the field because Miami’s defense will present problems for the passing attack. The Dolphins’ secondary has been exceptional for the most part this season, thanks mostly to the much-improved Sean Smith and Reshad Jones. Smith will smother Kenny Britt, who is clearly not 100 percent coming off a knee injury. Locker’s superior arm should help open things up for Nate Washington and Kendall Wright downfield.

The threat of this downfield passing will give Chris Johnson more running room. The Dolphins rank No. 1 against the rush, but have struggled tremendously against it in their past four games, surrendering 4.6 YPC in that span.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins’ defensive issues pale in comparison to Tennessee’s. The Titans have surrendered at least 143 rushing yards to four of their previous five opponents, which is just pathetic.

Reggie Bush won’t be stopped, so the threat of him coming out of the backfield will open things up for Ryan Tannehill. However, it’s not like Tannehill needs much help in this matchup. Thanks to glaring issues at safety, the Titans rank 28th against the pass, giving up 7.95 YPA to the opposition. If Tannehill has to throw the entire afternoon, he could approach 400 yards.

The one hope that the Titans have is their advantage on one side of the line of scrimmage. Left end Derrick Morgan was once considered a disappointment, but he’s been a monster these past two games in terms of putting pressure on the quarterback. Morgan has a huge edge over rookie right tackle Jonathan Martin, so if he wins that battle, he could come away with a couple of sacks and bother Tannehill enough that the rookie signal-caller gets uncomfortable and commits some turnovers.

RECAP: The Titans are my favorite pick of the week. Sure, they disappointed me against the Bears, but that’s part of the reason why I love them…

1. I love betting on teams coming off blowout losses. Spread losers of 25-plus in particular offer great gambling opportunities. In a related dynamic, underdogs coming off defeats of 28 or more cover frequently.

2. Owner Bud Adams went nuts earlier in the week, threatening to fire people if things don’t change quickly. The coaching staff and players will be on high alert in a must-win game for them.

3. This is about more than just Tennessee rebounding. The Dolphins are in a terrible spot. Favorites have done terribly this year prior to playing on Thursday night. Miami has to travel to play a divisional contest in just four days, which is pretty taxing.

4. I don’t like this Dolphin team in the role of a big favorite. Not yet anyway. They’ve been favored twice this year and have failed to cover in both instances. On a related note, Miami is 0-10 against the spread when laying 3.5 or more since 2008.

5. Rookie quarterbacks have enjoyed a high level of success this year, but do you want to guess what their spread record is when laying points? It’s just 2-8.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans are still my favorite play of the week.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Dolphins have to prepare for a Thursday night divisional battle after this contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

A good lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Miami: 65% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.

Titans are 4-0 ATS after losing by 30+ since 2006.

Dolphins are 0-10 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Opening Line: Dolphins -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Titans 17
Titans +6.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 37, Dolphins 3

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Ravens -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Ravens -7.5.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

If you’ve been reading this Web site for a while, you know that I love to respond to mess with spammers. It’s fun writing material, and besides, if they’re busy with me, they’re not conning someone else – so I consider myself a good samaritan for doing this.

I currently have a long entry with this woman Mulyana running. It’s taking up too much space, so I’ve given it its own page. Click here for the Steve Urkel Spam Mail.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Poor Darren McFadden. He’s been having a very disappointing season but was definitely looking ahead to this matchup because of Baltimore’s inability to stop the rush. The last time the Ravens haven’t surrendered at least 100 rushing yards was back in Week 4 against a hobbled Trent Richardson. It’s likely that the Raiders won’t eclipse the century mark because both McFadden and Mike Goodson are out. They’ll have to turn to the platoon of fumble-prone Taiwan Jones and Marcel Reece.

Reece happens to be a matchup nightmare because he’s a fullback who can catch the football effectively. OK, maybe he’s not so much of a nightmare – I’m just going by what the homer Raider announcers call him during the preseason – but he is definitely a solid weapon coming out of the backfield. His role will expand greatly in the wake of McFadden’s injury. That’s absolutely a good thing because McFadden hasn’t shown the same explosion this year.

Carson Palmer should be able to engineer scoring drives against a Baltimore secondary featuring an absent Lardarius Webb and a hobbled Ed Reed. The problem, however, will be the red zone. The Raiders have struggled to punch the ball into the end zone this season, relying on way too many Sebastian Janikowski field goals.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Tampa Bay head coach Greg Schiano likens Doug Martin to Ray Rice. Schiano coached Rice at Rutgers, so I guess he has the authority to compare the two. Martin nearly reached 300 rushing yards against the woeful Raiders’ run defense, so Rice should be able to do the exact same thing, right?

Ha! If only it were so easy. Cam Cameron is one of the worst offensive coordinators in the NFL. I don’t know how he does it, but he simply forgets about Rice for long stretches. Giving Rice at least 25 carries against a pitiful Oakland defensive front (Tommy Kelly is an abomination) is what any competent coordinator would do, but not Cameron.

We at least know that Joe Flacco will pass a ton. The Raiders aren’t as vulnerable aerially as they are on the ground, but they can still be easily beaten downfield because they’re missing their two starting cornerbacks. Flacco and Torrey Smith won’t have to deal with anyone like Joe Haden this week, which has to be a relief. Flacco should be able to dissect Oakland’s secondary with ease, all while enjoying plenty of time in the pocket; no team except the Jaguars has fewer sacks than the Raiders (11).

RECAP: I’d bet two or three units on the Raiders if they weren’t playing a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast. The pedestrian Ravens should not be laying more than a touchdown to anyone, especially considering that they could be looking ahead to more important contests on the slate.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Well, it appears as though the Raider corners are playing. Richard Seymour is out, however. I’m still leaning toward the Raiders, but I’m unwilling to bet on that.

FINAL THOUGHTS II: I just discovered that Raiders’ defensive line coach Terrell Williams lost his 4-year-old son. I expect Oakland to play for him, so I’m putting two units on the game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Lots of money against the Darren McFadden-less Raiders.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 71% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Raiders are 7-13 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games since 2002.

Ravens are 16-7 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Ravens -7.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Raiders 20
Raiders +7.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 55, Raiders 20

Atlanta Falcons (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)
Line: Falcons by 2. Total: 53.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Falcons -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Falcons -1.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: .

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

For instance, the following exchange took place yesterday during practice.

Bill Belichick: Let’s run the… hey, has anyone seen Tom Brady? Where the hell is he? I didn’t have my surveillance cameras set up today, so I can’t tell if he’s shown up to practice yet.

Josh McDaniels: I haven’t seen him.

Bill Belichick: Ugh, get away from me, McDouche. I was asking everyone else.

Josh McDaniels: Sorry, BB! I didn’t mean… hey, here he comes!

Bill Belichick: Tom, where were you? Practice started half an hour ago. And what the hell are you wearing? Where’s your football jersey?

Tom Brady: HAW HAW HAW, I FRENCH SOCCER PLAYER AND I WEAR FOOTBALL JERSEY HAW HAW HAW!

Josh McDaniels: No, that’s a gay soccer jersey. Where’s your football jersey?

Bill Belichick: Silence, homophobic fool. Where’s your real football jersey?

Tom Brady: HAW HAW HAW, I BECOME FRENCH SOCCER PLAYER WHEN I GET GREAT PONYTAIL HAIRCUT HAW HAW HAW!

Bill Belichick: What the hell, Tom? Stop getting these ridiculous haircuts.

Tom Brady: HAW HAW HAW, YOU JUST JEALOUS, YOU AND YOUR UGLY HOODIES, I AM FRENCH SOCCER PLAYER, I WEAR FANCY CLOTHES AND BUY EXPENSIVE COLOGNE, HAW HAW HAW!

Josh McDaniels: I’ve had it! Give me that damn soccer jersey so I can throw it in the dumpster!

*** Josh McDaniels tugs lightly at Tom Brady’s soccer jersey. ***

Tom Brady: I AM INJURE! I AM INJURE! GREAT FRENCH SOCCER PLAYER INJURE, DID REFEREE SEE? GIVE YELLOW AND RED CARD, HAW HAW HAW!

Josh McDaniels: You’re faking, wuss!

Tom Brady: OH NO, NOW I INJURE AGAIN WHEN YOU HURT MY FEELING BY SAYING I WUSS, HAW HAW HAW!

Josh McDaniels: BB, help me out here!

Bill Belichick: Help you out? You’re the one who just injured our star quarterback! Get out of my sight, McDouche!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Do I really need to talk about this? The Saints have one of the worst defenses in NFL history. Yeah, they just limited the Eagles to 13 points, but that was just Philadelphia being sloppy in the red zone, which has been a common occurrence all season. That has to change in this contest, right?

Well, maybe it won’t. The Falcons actually haven’t been as sharp as you’d think deep in opposing territory. They’re only 11th in the NFL in red-zone touchdowns, and they’ve converted only 40 percent of their red-zone trips into touchdowns in the past three games, which puts them in the bottom 10.

Having said that, Atlanta could easily remedy this issue Sunday afternoon because New Orleans’ defense is so bad. The Saints can’t stop the run, contain the pass or get to the other quarterback, so the Falcons should be able to do whatever they want, no matter where they are on the field.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Atlanta has its own issues on defense. The team has struggled versus aerial attacks in recent weeks, surrendering an 8.4 YPA in their previous four games. Tony Romo just went up and down the field on the Falcons, so why can’t Drew Brees? The difference will be that Brees and his weapons won’t screw up by shooting themselves in the foot like the Cowboys did.

Unlike the Falcons, New Orleans won’t have issues in the red zone. The Saints are No. 1 in that territory, scoring touchdowns 72 percent of the time. The Falcons can sometimes get decent pressure on the quarterback, but their pass rush is not strong enough to disrupt Brees from lighting up the scoreboard.

The Saints’ rushing attack will make Brees even more potent. The three running backs rush the ball extremely well Monday night and should be able to pick up where they left off; Atlanta is just 29th versus the run (4.7 YPC).

RECAP: I’m taking the Saints for three units. They’re the better team in the red zone, which is important in a potential shootout like this. They’re also great at home, and I love getting Drew Brees as an underdog. Seriously, how many times are we going to get Brees as a home underdog, especially in a divisional affair?

Speaking of home underdogs, they’re a great betting proposition if they play as a road favorite the following week. That dynamic covers more than 70 percent of the time in a large sample size.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I love how most media members aren’t giving the Saints a chance, yet they’re just 2.5-point underdogs. I still like them for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
I’m surprised there’s not more money on Atlanta.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 53% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Matt Ryan is 11-5 ATS as a road favorite.

Saints are 24-12 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 31-21 ATS as a dog.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.5.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Falcons 31
Saints +2 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 53 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 31, Falcons 27

Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Vikings -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Vikings -2.

Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 106 people remaining. No one lost last week, thanks to all of the favorites winning.

Picking Contest: We’re also running an NFL Picking Contest. It’s free entry, and the winner gets $75 each month.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: If it weren’t for Adrian Peterson, the Vikings may not have scored at all in Seattle last week. Peterson was amazing, rushing for 182 yards on one of the league’s best run defenses. So, with that in mind, even though the Lions are in the top 10 in terms of stopping ground attacks (10th; 4.01 YPC), they don’t really stand a chance against Peterson.

Fortunately for the Detroit defense, it doesn’t have to worry about much else. Christian Ponder is in a terrible funk. His mechanics and accuracy are terrible, and he appears to have lost all semblance of confidence. In his past three games, he’s thrown four interceptions to just two touchdowns, maintained a pedestrian completion percentage of 51.4 and maintained a laughable YPA of 5.03. The Lions have issues in their secondary, but Ponder couldn’t take advantage of Tampa’s equally bad defensive backfield.

The very little hope Minnesota had of Ponder rebounding diminished when Percy Harvin suffered an ankle injury during Sunday’s contest. Harvin reentered the game, but could barely move. It sounds like there’s a good chance he’ll suit up because of player arrogance, but he’ll likely be limited, which will hurt the Vikings more than it’ll help them. If that’s the case, the Lions can just focus on covering Kyle Rudolph and stuffing Peterson at the line of scrimmage.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions should be able to run the ball nearly as well as the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense has surrendered at least 126 rushing yards to its previous three opponents, so given the emergence of Mikel Leshoure last week, Detroit should be able to pound the rock and control the time of possession.

Leshoure running well will obviously give Matthew Stafford more opportunities. He should have plenty of time to locate his talented receivers downfield; take away an outlier against Arizona and its crappy offensive line, and Minnesota has just five sacks since Week 5. The Lions, meanwhile, have permitted just six sacks in the same time frame.

Ser Stafford has been hot ever since the second half of the Monday night contest. In fact, he seemed to catch fire as soon as Nate Burleson went down with a season-ending injury. This has forced Detroit to utilize young wideouts Titus Young and Ryan Broyles more frequently, which has really opened up the entire offense. The Vikings are good at taking away No. 1 wideouts, but I don’t know how they’re going to deal with all of Stafford’s weapons.

RECAP: The Vikings were favored by 2.5 points a week ago. Now, the Lions are -2. I normally like to pounce on teams like Minnesota that have seen the spread move so wildly in the opposite direction, but I feel as though the line shift is justified, given Harvin’s injury.

Harvin is a big part of the Vikings’ offense. Hell, he’s a major factor on special teams, as he scored on a kickoff return when these teams battled in Week 4. Not having him on the field – or having him play at less than 100 percent – will be detrimental for the Vikings. That’s why I’m picking the Lions, though I’m not betting on them as a potentially highly bet road favorite.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Percy Harvin is out. I’d consider betting a couple of units on the Lions if there wasn’t so much action coming in on them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No pyschological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Another instance where the public loves the road favorite.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 81% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 22 of the last 26 meetings.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Vikings 20
Lions -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 34, Lions 24

Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games
Jets at Seahawks, Cowboys at Eagles, Rams at 49ers, Texans at Bears, Chiefs at Steelers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
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2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
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2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
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2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)