NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)

NFL Picks (2012): 68-77-3 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 12, 5:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

New York Jets (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-4)
Line: Seahawks by 5.5. Total: 38.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Seahawks -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Seahawks -6.5.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 10 has been posted – there’s not enough evidence to convict Jonathan Vilma. Meanwhile, Cam Newton wants even more change.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson’s progression this season has been pretty amazing. There was talk about him getting benched following a three-interception performance against the Rams back in Week 4. But in his previous four games, he has thrown eight touchdowns to just two picks, doing this against teams that all currently have records of .500 or better.

The Jets provide a different sort of challenge. They’re just 3-5, but Rex Ryan will do his best to confuse Wilson with his schemes. Meanwhile, Antonio Cromartie will take Sidney Rice away, so Wilson will have to look elsewhere to convert third downs.

Fortunately for Wilson, he’ll be able to rely on Marshawn Lynch so he won’t have to do all of the work himself. The Jets aren’t any good versus the rush, surrendering 4.5 YPC, so Lynch will be able to pick up big chunks of yardage.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While you have to like the Seahawks’ chances of moving the chains at least sporadically, it’s difficult to envision the Jets sustaining any successful drives. It’s a complete mismatch across the board on this side of the ball.

The Seahawks couldn’t stop Adrian Peterson, but they’re normally one of the top units against the run in the NFL. Besides, containing Shonn Greene is nothing compared to trying to tackle Peterson. One is the best pure runner in the league, while the other has difficulty moving laterally.

The Jets won’t be able to pass the ball either. First of all, they simply don’t have the receivers to get open against Seattle’s stout secondary. And second, the offensive line won’t be able to protect Mark Sanchez. New York has allowed eight sacks in its previous two games, while the Seahawks have the fifth-most sacks in the NFL (25). Red Bryant and Bruce Irvin have a huge mismatch against inept right tackle Austin Howard.

RECAP: I don’t like laying this many points with a rookie quarterback, but I am taking the Seahawks because they’re so good at home. There’s really no value with this spread though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me. Still staying with Seattle for zero units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Not as much action as I thought there would be on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 54% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 16-5 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Jets 13
Seahawks -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 28, Jets 7

Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)
Line: Cowboys by 2. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -2.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Eagles -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Eagles -2.

Sunday, Nov. 11, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Another reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 5, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerk is Hurricane Sandy.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Perhaps I’m biased, but I don’t understand why QB Dog Killer is still starting for the Eagles. And don’t give me that “omg guyz nick folez wood get kilt behinde that off lien cuz look how vickz getten sackt!” bulls*** that ESPN is feeding us. Philadelphia’s offensive front has its problems, but a big part of the reason for the high amount of sacks is because QBDK can’t recognize where the blitz is coming from. Trust me, if Nick Foles has half a brain, the Eagles’ blocking will “magically” improve once he’s under center. Until then, however, ESPN will continue to make excuses for QBDK, as the worldwide leader has done for years.

Andy Reid won’t start Foles, however, because he’s fighting for his own job. He believes QBDK will give him the best chance to win. In reality, QBDK gives the team the best chance to commit turnovers or screw up in the red zone. Rob Ryan will blitz the hell out of Philadelphia’s mentally incapable quarterback, which will only create more blunders.

The Cowboys have a strong secondary, but they can be beaten on the ground. Michael Turner and the Falcons just gashed them for 115 rushing yards. LeSean McCoy is infinitely more talented than Turner is at this stage of his career, but it doesn’t matter if Reid continues to refuse to run the ball. He did a good job of keeping the ball in McCoy’s hands early Monday night, but seemed to forget about his best player after the first quarter.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys, of course, have issues of their own. Something always seems to go wrong. There will be key dropped passes or wasted timeouts because the plays aren’t getting in on time or fumbles or missed field goals or costly penalties or something I haven’t thought of. Dallas could legitimately be 6-2 or even 7-1 right now if it played clean football games.

The Cowboys can at least claim that they have some injury issues, particularly to DeMarco Murray. The Falcons, who are 29th versus the rush (4.7 YPC), just limited Felix Jones and the other Dallas runners to just 65 rushing yards on 18 carries. Jones is a terrible back, so even though the Eagles were just gashed by the unlikeliest of teams, they shouldn’t have to worry too much about Jones beating them on the ground.

Dallas is also dealing with Dez Bryant’s BS. Bryant is apparently hampered with a hip injury, which would explain his recent lack of production. Philadelphia’s secondary has major problems, but it at least won’t have to worry about Bryant too much. Now, dealing with Jason Witten and Miles Austin-Jones? That’s a different story, especially considering that the team has absolutely no pass rush.

RECAP: Reid is always at his best when his back is against the wall and everyone is doubting him. Everyone in the local media is now saying that this season is over. They all assume that Reid will be fired at the end of the year. The Eagles are home underdogs, and everyone and their evil step sister is betting on Dallas. As if the Cowboys are suddenly awesome.

It pains me to say this, but I like the Eagles a good amount. This spread is a complete overreaction; there is no way in hell Dallas should be favored on the road. Also, the Eagles have owned the Cowboys lately, so I’m looking for that to continue.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. If this spread climbs to -3, I’ll bump up my play.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

No one is betting on the Eagles after what they saw Monday night.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 80% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20
Eagles +2 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 38, Eagles 23

St. Louis Rams (3-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)
Line: 49ers by 13. Total: 38.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -11.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): 49ers -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): 49ers -11.5.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

I love this trolling venture: I completely misunderstood a joke and had everyone freaking out, including Jed Divine, who had a rant at the very end:

My apologies, Jed, if you suffered a heart attack upon writing that.

Here, I’m expressing my concern about Seattle’s chances against the Vikings:

Yeah, AP’s never been in the playoffs… that NFC Championship game versus the Saints never happened.

And here’s my argument about why recent Vikings and 49ers victories transpired because of “lock:”

Apparently, I’m the cause for the demise of Best Buy. It’s great to feel so important.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams get a big boost in this game, as wide receiver Danny Amendola and left tackle Rodger Saffold and are expected to return to the lineup. Saffold’s presence will be huge against a 49er defense that sacked the hell out of John Skelton prior to the bye. Amendola, meanwhile, will reprise his role as Sam Bradford’s most trusted target.

Unfortunately, it may not be enough. San Francisco limited Arizona to just six rushing yards in the aforementioned Monday night contest, so it’ll be a tall order for Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson to be effective on the ground. This will make life more difficult for Sam Bradford, even with Saffold protecting his blind side. The Rams’ offensive line still has major issues.

The weakness of the 49ers’ stop unit is the secondary. Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner are both having down years, so Bradford should have some success moving the chains. He’ll locate Amendola frequently and hit Chris Givens with his weekly deep bomb. However, he’ll need to overcome his red-zone struggles. Only the Chiefs, Browns and Eagles have scored fewer touchdowns in the red zone than the Rams this season.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers can almost do everything better than the Rams offensively. Their rushing attack will operate more smoothly. They run the ball extremely effectively with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, and St. Louis surrendered 152 yards on the ground to the Patriots in London.

Alex Smith also has better targets to work with. Every defensive coordinator is scared to death of Vernon Davis, which opens things up for Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham. Cortland Finnegan should be able to take Crabtree out of the game, however, so Alex Smith will have to look elsewhere. Perhaps Randy Moss will even score a touchdown again. OK, maybe not.

The one thing the 49ers’ offense doesn’t do better than the Rams is pass protect. Smith has taken the fifth-most sacks in the NFL (24), including 12 in his previous four games. Right tackle Anthony Davis is the weak link on the unit. He’s been better this season than in the past, but he can still be a liability, especially against someone like Chris Long.

RECAP: I don’t love St. Louis or anything, but I think it should be able to cover. The 49ers are simply favored by too much in a divisional matchup. The Rams are not as bad as everyone thinks they are. Sure, they were blown out against the Patriots, but they’ve lost by more than 10 just twice all year. I actually think that New England defeat is good for them pertaining to this contest because teams generally rebound following blowout defeats.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I may increase my unit play on the Rams based on what happens with this spread Sunday morning. Stay tuned.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

A good lean on the host.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 74% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 11 of the last 14 meetings.

Rams are 21-35 ATS on grass since 2001.

Jeff Fisher is 2-11 ATS on the West Coast since 1999.

49ers are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

49ers are 13-8 ATS against divisional opponents in the past 21 instances.

Opening Line: 49ers -12.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: 49ers 20, Rams 12
Rams +13 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 24, Rams 24

Houston Texans (7-1) at Chicago Bears (7-1)
Line: Bears by 1.5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Bears -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Bears -2.5.
Sunday, Nov. 11, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

I can’t wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That’s what NFL.com gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat. My girlfriend is the new Aaron. Here’s another post from Pikkel Kolslov:

The man posing as Pikkel e-mailed me and expressed frustration about no one responding to him. Once again, if you’re going to troll, post early in one of the top threads. The posts are ordered by likes, so make sure you “like” whatever you’re posting in.

I was able to get people posting here because there weren’t many liked threads early on in the Ravens-Browns page:

I can’t believe people actually believe that someone thought Ray Lewis was going to sack Trent Richardson five times.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Jay Cutler struggled in the second half of the Monday night game and the first three quarters just six days later versus Carolina. He was limited by a rib injury, but he caught fire at the end of the Panthers’ contest and then carried that over versus Tennessee.

Things will be much more challenging in this contest, however. Cutler is no longer battling pedestrian defenses; the Texans are fifth against the pass (6.2 YPA) and have the personnel to put tons of pressure on the quarterback. It’s no secret that Cutler’s offensive line can act as a human turnstile sometimes; it allowed three sacks last week despite the team being up 31-2 in the second quarter.

If the Texans can apply heavy pressure on Cutler and limit Brandon Marshall just as they did with Steve Johnson last week, it’ll be very difficult for the Bears to sustain consistent drives. The Texans haven’t surrendered more than 80 rushing yards to anyone on the ground since Week 4, so Matt Forte won’t be much of a factor unless he’s doing something in the passing attack.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans run the ball extremely well, and once they get that going, Matt Schaub is very effective off play-action bootlegs. However, there are two things that limit the offense. The first is the lack of a deep threat. The second is the right side of the offensive line. Right tackle Derek Newton stinks, while right guard Ben Jones hasn’t been much better in relief of the anemic Antoine Caldwell. Israel Idonije, Shea McClellin and Henry Melton should be able to take advantage of these matchups quite easily.

As for the first weak point I mentioned, the Bears’ secondary has been outstanding this season, so Schaub won’t get much downfield. Cornerback Charles Tillman is being discussed as a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate, so you have to like his chances against Andre Johnson, who looks a step slower this season, thanks in part to all of the injuries he’s incurred over his prolific career.

Of course, all of what Houston does is predicated off its ability to pound the ball with Arian Foster. The Texans have taken advantage of numerous poor defenses throughout the year, but they won’t be able to do that with Chicago. Take away a bogus Chris Johnson 80-yard touchdown that came in garbage time this past Sunday, and the Bears haven’t permitted more than 76 rushing yards to anyone this season, save for the Packers in Week 2.

RECAP: There are no situational or scheduling angles that I can find for either side. Thus, this will be a zero-unit pick.

I’m going to take the Bears because I don’t believe the Texans are two points better than them, as this spread insinuates (moving three points to homefield advantage). If Chicago were -3, I’d probably go with Houston, so that should tell you how close this is for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m tempted to switch this pick, but I’ll stick with my gut feeling.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Slight lean on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 64% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bears are 27-15 ATS in November since 2001.

Jay Cutler is 28-46 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Bears 17, Texans 13
Bears -1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 13, Bears 6

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Line: Steelers by 13. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -11.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Steelers -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Steelers -13.
Monday, Nov. 12, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 10 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Pittsburgh, a crappy city on the left side of my state that no one cares about. Guys, let’s be real here. This is a stupid game. The Chiefs are garbage, while the Steelers are just going to disappoint if you bet on them, so I can’t find any reason to watch this piece-of-s*** game. What say you, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Mike, your paycheck say that you has to announce football game but if no one watch football game, you won’t get pay. It’s like the old sayin’ go, if a tree fall in the forest, do it really fall?

Reilly: I don’t think you got that one right, Emmitt. Eh, who cares? This is boring.

Tollefson: I’m with you, Kevin. What a terrible game to watch. Did you know that the Steelers have no cheerleaders? What sort of an NFL organization has no cheerleaders? It’s like the owners like it up the butt hole or something.

Reilly: Ugh! Why did you have to say that!? Now, Matt Mil…

Millen: That is an absolute false statement, Tolly! I know for a fact that the Steeler owners do not like it up the butt hole. Do you know how many years I spent as the Lions’ general manager trying to get those guys to come to my apartment for a night of kielbasa fun? That’s one of the main reasons I took the Detroit job in the first place. I thought it would give me an “in” with those guys, but they rejected all of my offers.

Reilly: Well, Matt, I’m sorry, but not everyone enjoys kielbasa man sex with you.

Millen: I know… but… but… the Steeler owners look like they would be so much fun to enjoy kielbasa man sex with. Ugh! Why does life suck so much?

Griese: Weh? Man sex with the Steeler owners? My son Brian did that one time.

Millen: WHAT!!?!??!!?

Griese: Yeah, that’s why I disowned him. I didn’t even care about his poor NFL quarterbacking, but he besmirched our family name doing those horrific deeds.

Reilly: Ha! Griese is lucid for the first time all season and he’s making Millen cry! This is turning out to be a great evening!

Griese: Weh? Who are you?

Reilly: Never mind about the lucid part.

Tollefson: Hey, Kevin, wasn’t there an African American fellow in here with us? I think his name was Charles Johnson. What happened to him?

Reilly: You mean Charles Davis? Never heard of him! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: A man on the Steelers’ sideline has extra incentive to beat Kansas City. That man happens to be Todd Haley, who was fired as the Chiefs’ head coach last year. Kansas City has the same personnel and schemes as last year, so Haley’s insight will really be a huge boost for Pittsburgh in this contest.

Then again, you could argue that the Steelers didn’t need much of an edge like that in the first place. The Chiefs, who are dead last against the pass (8.9 YPA overall; 9.4 YPA last four) just cut starting cornerback Stanford Routt. The former Raider was overpaid and pretty pedestrian, but it’s not like he was a major liability or anything. With Routt gone, Javier Arenas will have to start with the anemic Travis Daniels at nickel. Ben Roethlisberger will be able to dissect the Chiefs even with Antonio Brown likely out with a mild high ankle sprain.

Having said that, Big Ben may not have to throw that much. His running backs have gained more than 100 rushing yards in three consecutive contests, which coincides with Kansas City surrendering 100-plus yards on the ground in five straight games. Glenn Dorsey figures to be out again, which is bad news because his absence has been huge.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: On paper, the Chiefs have the personnel to sustain drives. The Steelers don’t get good pressure on the quarterback because the defensive line is disappointing, while James Harrison is hobbled by a knee injury. They’re also just 14th versus the rush (4.2 YPC), though they did shut down the Giants’ ground attack. Troy Polamalu hasn’t played very much this year, which has taken its toll.

However, there are two reasons why Kansas City will struggle in this contest. The first is Haley. He’ll be able to give Dick LeBeau special insight into the Chiefs’ offense, given that he coached them for nearly three years. Second, the Chiefs turn the ball over more than any team in the NFL. In fact, going into Sunday’s games, Matt Cassel had more give-aways himself than all but one team in the NFL (Cowboys).

Cassel might be benched in favor of Ricky Stanzi during this contest, but it won’t matter. Cassel isn’t entirely to blame. The backup center can’t snap the ball; Jamaal Charles fumbles; the perennially overrated Dwayne Bowe has balls bounce out of his hands… It’s something different every week. The Steelers will be able to capitalize.

RECAP: I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I like the Chiefs. Pittsburgh typically doesn’t show up as a big favorite. Also, this game is essentially meaningless for the Steelers because they play Baltimore twice in the next three weeks. Teams also fare poorly after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champ and making a double-digit fourth-quarter comeback.

I’m keeping this to just one unit, however, for two reasons: 1) I don’t trust the Chiefs because they turn the ball over more than any other team in the league. 2) Haley will want revenge after being fired by Kansas City last year.

SURVIVOR PICK: My top survivor options this week are the Steelers, 49ers, Patriots, Ravens, Seahawks, Dolphins and Buccaneers. I haven’t used Pittsburgh yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Even though this spread is up to -13, I’m still keeping this at one unit. I’d maybe have two or three units on the Chiefs if Todd Haley wasn’t on the other side.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Steelers have three divisional games after this contest against the crappy Chiefs.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Despite the huge spread, people are still betting on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 85% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Chiefs are 12-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.

Ben Roethlisberger is 4-7 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite following a road win.

Opening Line: Steelers -12.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Chiefs 16
Chiefs +13 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (8-1)
Steelers 16, Chiefs 13

Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games
Colts at Jaguars. Raiders at Ravens, Chargers at Buccaneers, Broncos at Panthers, Giants at Bengals, Titans at Dolphins, Lions at Vikings, Bills at Patriots, Falcons at Saints

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Bengals +170 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$85

Moneyline Underdog: Titans +210 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$105

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)