NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2015): 5-6-3 (-$2,010)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2015): 6-10 (-$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2015): 8-7-1 (+$195)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2015): 11-5 (+$1,550)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2015): 7-7-2 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2015): 8-8 (+$390)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2015): 8-8 (+$910)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2015): 3-1 (+$580)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2015): 2-1-1 (+$780)

NFL Picks (2015): 131-137-10 (-$2,455)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 23, 10:10 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (13-4)
Line: Patriots by 4. Total: 45.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -1.
Sunday, Jan. 24, 3:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

WEEK 19 RECAP: I won’t complain much about a winning week (2-1-1, +$780), but it could’ve been much better had Fitzgerald Toussaint not fumbled and the Steelers managed to hang on to their lead (or cover). Some said I got lucky in the Cardinals-Packers and Broncos-Steelers games, but considering I had touchdown underdogs holding leads in the fourth quarter, I’d say I would’ve been highly unfortunate to not have them cover (or push, in Pittsburgh’s case).

WEEK 20 BETTING TRENDS – CONFERENCE-CHAMPIONSHIP HOME UNDERDOGS: Both spreads are hovering around a field goal, but one of them is favoring the road team. The Patriots are -3 or -3.5 at Denver, meaning the Broncos are in the unlikely situation of being a home underdog in a conference championship.

I was curious to see how teams have fared in the past in this dynamic. Before looking it up, I would’ve assumed that home underdogs in conference championships would’ve held an impressive record, perhaps 6-1 or 7-2 against the spread. What I unearthed, however, was slightly shocking.

There have only been four home dogs in conference championships since realignment in 2002. Here’s the list:

2004: Steelers +3 vs. Patriots: Loss ATS (41-27)
2008: Cardinals +3.5 vs. Eagles: Win ATS (32-25)
2010: Bears +3.5 vs. Packers: Loss ATS (21-14)
2012: Falcons +3.5 vs. 49ers: Loss ATS (28-24)
2015: Broncos +3.5 vs. Patriots: ???

I don’t think you can learn anything from such a small sample size, outside of the fact that blindly betting home dogs in these games doesn’t work. However, going the other way isn’t very effective either. The Pittsburgh loss was legitimate, but only because New England had a great team that couldn’t be stopped. The Bears lost because Jay Cutler got hurt. The Falcons were up 17-0 and had a chance to cover, but Matt Ryan got banged up. Thus, this 1-3 ATS result could have easily been 3-1.

VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 51-51-3 against the spread heading into Week 19. There obviously wouldn’t be six teams for Week 19, but how would the top-bet sides fare? Take a look:

Broncos -7 – Push

Panthers -2.5 – Cover

The books lost last week. The Panthers were a square pick, but they covered. Meanwhile, the Broncos, Cardinals and Patriots all prevailed, meaning most teasers hit.

Here are the top bets in Week 20, as of Tuesday afternoon (52-51-4 ATS this year):

Patriots -3.5

Panthers -3

There’s a ton of money both favorites this week, which is hardly a surprise.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

DENVER OFFENSE: To say that Peyton Manning struggled in the divisional round is an understatement. Manning’s deep passes sailed out of bounds, while his short tosses were wobblers that were difficult or impossible to catch. The two reasons why the Broncos are even playing in this round were Fitzgerald Toussaint’s lost fumble and the fact that Manning was allowed to get up and connect on a long pass after he gave himself up. I forget who made this point, but someone correctly argued that had any Pittsburgh player tackled Manning while he was on the ground, the Steelers would’ve been whistled for a 15-yard penalty, even though Manning wasn’t touched. The officials would’ve ruled that Manning gave himself up, which would’ve been the right call. He just shouldn’t have been allowed to stand up and throw the ball in the first place.

Manning will be battling a tougher defense this week, though not by much. The Patriots are better in the back end of the secondary, but they’re only a few spots ahead of the Steelers in most categories. With that in mind, I expect Manning to struggle again. Perhaps his receivers will have better luck with drops, but they’ve had issues hanging on to the football for more than a month now. No one should’ve been surprised that Demaryius Thomas and company let the ball slip through their hands on so many occasions.

As bad as Manning is now, the offensive line may decide this game for the Broncos. Save for Evan Mathis, the blockers suck. I don’t think they’ll protect well enough for Manning, which is bad news because the New England pass rush is pretty strong. Meanwhile, Denver won’t be able to run as well as it did in the first meeting because the Patriot linebackers are much healthier than they were on Thanksgiving weekend.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Denver’s defense will have to keep the team in the game. That may seem like a tall order against Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, but I think the unit will have a good shot at doing so.

There’s only one way to limit Brady, and that’s by generating tons of pressure without blitzing. Thanks to Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware and Derek Wolfe, among others, the Broncos are certainly capable of doing that. They can harass Brady without compromising their secondary, which is important considering that Chris Harris isn’t 100 percent. Plus, it’s not like the Patriots can threaten Denver with their running game. No one is scared of Steven Jackson, and the Broncos are No. 1 against the rush, so they wouldn’t have even been threatened if this happened to be Jackson in his prime.

Having said that, I still expect the Patriots to move the chains occasionally. Brady will get rid of the ball quickly, feeding Edelman and Gronkowski early and often. The Denver linebackers and defensive backs should do a good job of limiting them, but it’s just so extremely difficult to restrict New England’s dynamic scoring attack for 60 minutes.

RECAP: I can see the argument for betting the Patriots. They’re the better team, that’s for sure. Bill Belichick is fantastic in same-season revenge games. And, Manning is still the quarterback, the last time I checked, so he’s set up for one of his epic playoff choke jobs. He tried to give away the game last week, but Toussaint and the officials wouldn’t let him.

However, I think a better case can be made for the Broncos, and it has to do with how absurd this spread is. It’s pretty ridiculous. It’s Patriots -3 in most places, but -3.5 is available at Bovada. With a 3.5-point line in Denver, the Patriots would be -9.5 against the Broncos in Foxboro. Just think about how crazy that is for a second. That’s saying Denver is 4.5 points worse than the Chiefs, who opened as five-point dogs last week. That absolutely makes zero sense.

If the Patriots cover this number, it won’t be by much. This is going to be a low-scoring game dominated by the defenses, so with points being at a premium, that says the underdog needs to be considered. And given the history of the Brady-Manning rivalry, taking the host is usually the way to go. Since after New England’s first Super Bowl victory, when Brady and Manning became regarded as the top quarterbacks in the NFL, Brady is just 2-3 on the road against Manning. Both of those victories were by four points each. Sure, another four-point victory would cover this for New England, but the case I’m trying to make is that these games tend to be close, which goes along with the defensive theme.

I don’t love the Broncos here, though. I think the most likely result is that New England wins by three. Thus, there’s not much room for error, and if this spread were Patriots -2.5, I’d strongly consider backing the visitor. However, given that Broncos +3.5 -105 is currently available at Bovada, I think I’ll take that for a unit.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: As a reaction to this pick, I’ve heard so many people say something like, “Pats are easy money. No way Broncos cover.” That actually makes me more confident in Denver. Everyone and their mother is betting the Patriots. In most facets of life, if everyone thinks one thing is going to happen, the opposite usually occurs.

SATURDAY THOUGHTS: I’m surprised this spread hasn’t moved off three. There’s so much money coming in on the Patriots that the books have such a huge liability on them. I still like Denver, but not all that much, even with the great line of +3.5 -105 at Bovada.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Broncos +4 is available at Bovada. That’s what I’ve been waiting for, so I’m going to add a unit on Denver. Check back around 2:30 for final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Broncos are still +4 at Bovada. However, they’re -3 +104 on the sharpest book, Pinnacle, which is begging for New England money. Everyone is betting the Patriots like this is easy money, but this spread is just wrong. It’s way too high, and as I mentioned before, Brady has never beaten Manning by more than four on the road since they were both established as two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The sharps are on Denver, by the way.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

The Broncos have to feel disrespected as No. 1 seed home dogs.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

All of the action is on the Patriots, and predictably so.

Percentage of money on New England: 78% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 187-63 as a starter (141-104 ATS).

Tom Brady is 22-8 in the playoffs (14-16 ATS).

Bill Belichick is 12-4 ATS against a team after losing to them the same year.

Peyton Manning is 15-7 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Peyton Manning is 6-3 ATS as a home underdog.

Peyton Manning is 5-13 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).

Opening Line: Patriots -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Sunny, 49 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 20 NFL Pick: Patriots 22, Broncos 20
Broncos +4 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 20, Patriots 18

Arizona Cardinals (15-2) at Carolina Panthers (16-1)
Line: Panthers by 3.5. Total: 47.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -2.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 6:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 8 concludes! Emmitt and his crew defeated Kim Jong-un and saved America. Read all about Emmitt’s heroics and how Roger Goodell was involved with Kim Jong-un. Also, Greg Hardy and Jared Fogle finally receive justice.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is December Heat Wave, where stupid kids annoy me and my new neighbor gets angry about something I did.

HATE MAIL: I couldn’t find much hate mail this week, but there were four negative comments. Here are the first two:

“You are kc hatred” doesn’t make much sense, and I didn’t even notice it until now. It figures that the mouth-breathing Kansas City fans would write like that.

Speaking of the mouth-breathers…

I don’t get what this obsession was with me saying negative things about the Chiefs. Actually, it wasn’t even that negative; I simply called them above average. And that’s exactly what they were. I’m just trying to figure teams out so I can profit betting on or against them, and going against Kansas City at the end turned out to be a positive proposition. I don’t hate the Chiefs in the slightest. I might hate some Chiefs fans, but I have no issues with their team.

***

This week on FOX, we’re going to have Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Carolina, home of the Panthers and Hurricanes. But I don’t care. That’s because my producers are making me work with Troy Aikman this week. Aikman, the sissy who always used to beat my Philadelphia Eagles because he cheated, what a f***ing asshole!

Troy Aikman: Thanks, Kevin, it’s great to be here. I can’t wait to discuss football with all of you gentlemen even though I don’t know who any of you are.

Emmitt: Tony, did you forgetted me already? We were in the same blackfield when we play for the Texas Cowboy. I remember you either hand the ball to myselves, or you throw the ball to other guy on the team, Michael Irving, who famous for sniffing Coke before the game. Or maybe he snore Pepsi, I already forgetted.

Troy Aikman: For the life of me, I don’t know who you are, but maybe that’s because I forgot my concussion meds at… what are they doing, Joe? Why are they going for it instead of kicking a field goal?

Reilly: The game hasn’t started yet, Troy.

Millen: Never mind that, Kevin. Hey, Troy, since you can’t remmeber anything right now, I thought you would like to know that we are man-lovers, and you told me that if you ever lost your memory, I needed to take you to my hotel room so I can insert some kielbasas into your backside.

Tollefson: That’s not true at all, don’t listen to him, Troy. The truth is that you told me that I’m your benefactor, and if anything should happen to you, such as memory loss, you’d like me to take all of your money. Don’t worry, Troy, I’ll put it to good use, as I’ll hire attractive female slaves from third-world countries so that they can be free by cooking and cleaning for me naked.

Herm: DON’T DO IT, TROY! DON’T PULL THE TRIGGER, TROY! DON’T LISTEN TO THEM, TROY! DON’T DO ANY OF IT, TROY! DON’T GIVE THEM YOUR MONEY! DON’T GIVE THEM YOUR CASH! DON’T GIVE THEM YOUR BANK ACCOUNT! DON’T GIVE THEM YOUR POSSESSIONS! AND DON’T GIVE THEM YOUR A**HOLE! I REPEAT, DON’T GIVE YOUR A**HOLE AWAY TO THAT MUSTACHIOED MAN! HE WILL DO NAUGHTY THINGS TO IT! HE WILL DO TERRIBLE THINGS! HE WILL DO UNGODLY THINGS! HE WILL MASSACRE YOUR A**HOLE! HE WAS ANNIHILATE YOUR A**HOLE! HE WILL OBLITERATE YOUR A**HOLE! DON’T WANT THAT TO HAPPEN! CAN’T HAPPEN! WON’T HAPPEN ON MY WATCH! CAN’T HAPPEN ON MY WATCH! ALREADY HAPPENED ON MY WATCH! MORE LIKE ALREADY HAPPENED TO ME! HERM GOT VIOLATED! HERM’S NO LONGER PURE! HERM’S NO LONGER A MAIDEN! THAT MUSTACHIOED MAN STUCK A KIELBASA IN MY BACKSIDE! A BIG KIELBASA IN THE BACKSIDE! IT HURT! IT FELT GOOD FOR A BIT! THEN IT HURT! THEN IT HURT SOME MORE! THEN BLOOD CAME OUT! THEN GUTS CAME OUT! THEN HERM BLACKED OUT! HERM CAN’T REMEMBER! HERM TRYING TO REMEMBER! HERM WANTS TO RECALL! HERM… HERM’S RECALLING! HERM’S REMEMBERING! HERM… HERM!!! HERM!!!!!!! AHH NO PLEASE STOP! PLEASE STOP! Uhh… umm…

Millen: Herm, I thought you’d agree not to tell anyone! I mean… uhh… if blood and guts came out, then you are not 100-percent USDA Man, and I want nothing to do with you.

Aikman: Look at that pass, Joe. It’s a good one. Ruskell Wilkens is on top of his game right now.

Reilly: What pass? The game still hasn’t started yet.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by it hasn’t started yet. There’s something called a starting point, and then there’s something called an ending point. All the stuff in between is when the game is going on, while all the stuff not in between is when the game isn’t on. It can be before the game if the starting point hasn’t happened yet, and it can be after the game if the game is already over and the ending point has passed. It can also have nothing to do with the game, but only if you’re in a parallel universe in which the game has never existed. But if you’re in a parallel universe, you’re probably not even aware of the game, unless you happen to be a fifth-dimensional being who is aware of all possible realities at once. My cousin is a fifth-dimensional being, but I don’t talk to him very much because he’s a jerk.

Wolfley: MY BEST FRIEND GROWING UP HAPPENED TO BE A FIFTH-DIMENSIONAL BEING, AND HE WAS ALSO A JERK SO I STOPPED TALKING TO HIM. HE BOUGHT A CANDY CANE ONE TIME, LICKED IT, AND THEN SHOVED IT DOWN MY THROAT SO I’D CHOKE, AND HE SAID THAT IN A DIFFERENT UNIVERSE, THAT WOULD MAKE ME THE BEST FOOTBALL PLAYER EVER.

Fouts: My cousin did that to me, too! Wow, what a coincidence that we both knew someone like that.

Charles Davis: It’s probably more than a coincidence, Kevin. They probably know the same person, yet are too dumb to realize it, Kevin. But you know what the good news is, Kevin? They used the word “coincidence” instead of “ironic,” Kevin. Do you know what the difference between ironic and coincidence are, Kevin? I bet you don’t, Kevin. Let’s take an example, Kevin. A man brings a cake he wants to eat and falls over a cat, Kevin. Is that a coincidence or iorny, Kevin? That’s a coincidence, Kevin.

Reilly: Yes, I finally got one ri… wait, I wasn’t even playing or even talking to you!

Charles Davis: Let’s try another example, Kevin. The best waiter in the world who never dropped anything in his life, including the most expensive meals ever, Kevin, was handling an ordinary birthday cake, Kevin, and then he slipped and fell on his own accord, Kevin. What is that, Kevin? I’ll give you three choices, Kevin. Is it irony, Kevin? Is it Walt from Lost, Kevin? Is it a coincidence, Kevin? Oh, you said…

Reilly: WAIT, IT’S IRO…

Aikman: Walt from Lost. I can’t believe he punted.

Charles Davis: That’s incorrect, Kevin. The answer you’re looking for, Kevin, is irony, Kevin.

Reilly: I DIDN’T EVEN SAY THAT! IT WAS F***ING TROY! AND I WAS ABOUT TO F***ING SAY IRONY UNTIL TROY THE A**HOLE INTERRUPTED ME, NOW I’M GOING TO HAVE TO SLIT BOTH OF YOUR THROATS, AGHHHHHHHHHH! We’ll be back right after this!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers trampled right over the Seahawks in the first half of last week’s game, and many might be wondering how Arizona will stand a chance. The Cardinals are seventh against the run, but the Seahawks were even better (second), yet they surrendered 110 yards on the ground to Carolina. Jonathan Stewart looks great right now, and it’s so difficult to focus on him, given that Cam Newton is always a threat to take off.

However, there are a few factors to consider. First of all, the Seahawks were screwed with an early start time, so they looked half-asleep in the opening half. Second, it appeared as though the horrible turf was in their heads, as they were complaining about needing new cleats while on the sideline in the first quarter. All of these mental issues hurt them, so with that on top of Carolina’s terrific execution, it’s no wonder the Seahawks trailed 31-0 before they knew what hit them.

Assuming they’re prepared for the horrible turf, the Cardinals’ excellent defense should be focused enough to at least contain the Panthers, especially with Greg Olsen ailing with a shoulder injury. Olsen will play, but he may not be 100 percent.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Panthers’ stop unit may seem impenetrable, especially with the way it clamped down on the Seahawks in the first half. However, it was holding on for dear life toward the end, and if the game happened to be extended by a few more minutes, Seattle may have sent it into overtime. This may go against conventional thinking, but I think the Cardinals will score a healthy amount of points in this contest.

Carolina has a great defense for sure, but the team has shown a big liability when trying to defend certain teams. Think about whom the Panthers have surrendered large point totals to. The Seahawks, once they got their act together, scored 24 points in one half alone. The Giants posted 35, and it could’ve been more had Odell Beckham Jr. not dropped an early touchdown. The Saints tallied 38 in Week 13, nearly upsetting Carolina. The Colts and Packers reached 26 and 29, respectively.

So, what do these teams have in common? They all have dynamic passing attacks and/or stellar quarterbacks. Russell Wilson, Eli Manning-Beckham, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are all capable of lighting up opposing secondaries, and that happens to be the weak point of Carolina’s defense. The Panthers have Josh Norman, sure, but they are also missing a couple of key defensive backs, who are out because of injuries.

Thanks to his prolific receiving corps, Carson Palmer is more than capable of lighting up the Panthers. Sure, he struggled through three quarters last week, but he torched the same defense just three weeks earlier. The Packers were better with Sam Shields back on the field, and Palmer was jittery anyway because he was expected to win despite having no playoff success. Now that he won his first postseason game, and the monkey is off his back, Palmer will be in a better mental state, especially when considering that no one expects his team to win this game. Besides, when the Cardinals needed to score last week, they did, so Palmer’s “poor” performance might be overblown.

RECAP: In case you couldn’t tell, I like the Cardinals quite a bit. I like how they match up with the Panthers, who seem to be overrated right now because of what transpired last week. Everyone is looking at the 31-0 start, but why is no one talking about how Carolina couldn’t stop the Seahawks, or how it couldn’t score a single point following intermission? I think that is important. It’s not like the Panthers weren’t trying to get into the end zone. For 30 minutes, Seattle was the better team, but it just ran out of time.

As I mentioned last week, the Panthers haven’t really been tested. Prior to battling the Seahawks, the last good team they played was the Packers in Week 9, and Green Bay was struggling back then, fresh off a humiliating upset to the Broncos. Despite an extremely soft schedule, the Panthers have played just four great halves since Thanksgiving: the two opening halves against the Seahawks and Giants, and the complete game against the Falcons in the first meeting. Their other contests included a near-loss to the Saints; a bad defeat at Atlanta; and a nondescript victory over the Buccaneers in which Tampa moved the chains pretty effectively, but simply shot itself in the foot too many times.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been battle tested. They’ve gone up against the Seahawks (twice), Packers (twice), Bengals and Vikings – and this is just since their Week 9 bye.

The case can be made that Arizona is the better team, which begs the question why the Panthers are favored by three (3.5 at Bovada). Think about it this way: The Panthers were -3 over the Seahawks. That’s saying that the Cardinals and Seahawks are even, which we know isn’t true because Arizona was -6 over Seattle in Week 17. This line is off, and that’s because everyone wants to bet the Panthers, based on what they saw in the first half last week. As mentioned, a lot went into Seattle trailing early. The Cardinals will be more prepared, and I actually think they’ll pull the upset.

I’m going with three units on the Cardinals for now. I may add a fourth if I can get -110 at +3.5. Bovada currently has it at +3.5 -115, which is so much better than +3 -110, the spread that is available elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of money coming in on the Panthers as well. In terms of both games, there’s no indication yet of what the sharps will be doing. They won’t show their hand until at least Saturday.

SATURDAY THOUGHTS: As with the first game, lots of money is coming in on the favorite. The books got slaughtered last weekend, so I’ll be shocked if both favorites covered. Arizona is +3.5 -115 at Bovada, which is much better than the +3 -110 available elsewhere.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is pounding yet another favorite here, but unlike the Denver-New England game, the sharps haven’t weighed in. I still like the Cardinals quite a bit here for all of the reasons I listed above and on the podcast. They’re available at +3.5 -105 on Bovada. I was hoping to get +4, but that apparently isn’t happening.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

A large amount of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 72% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Bruce Arians is 31-18 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Clear, 32 degrees. Light wind.

Week 20 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Panthers 24
Cardinals +3.5 -105 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$315
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 49, Cardinals 15

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Props to be posted here

NFL Picks - Nov. 23

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)