Updated May 6, 2026
Rookies are generally overdrafted in fantasy football. It’s only natural. People want the new, shiny object, and they’re willing to overpay for it.
We had an episode on the After Dark Show, where Kenny from TheCapIsFake.com and I discussed which rookies were overdrafted and underdrafted. As you can see from this chart, we believe that almost every rookie is overdrafted:
Here’s the video if you want to watch:
It all starts with Jeremiyah Love, who is going in the late Round 2-early Round 3 range. The Cardinals have a bad offensive line and three other running backs, so it’s hard to trust Love that early. Meanwhile, his collegiate teammate is no guarantee to start, and Zach Charbonnet’s return in the second half of the season will complicate things.
The top rookie receivers aren’t safe either. Carnell Tate is in a bad offense and doesn’t profile as a No. 1 wideout. Jordyn Tyson does, but has some injury concerns. Makai Lemon, meanwhile, is going way too early.
The only two rookies being drafted in the first 16 rounds who are underdrafted are De’Zhaun Stribling and Chris Bell. Stribling has a lot of upward mobility in a good offense. Christian McCaffrey is coming off a high number of carries, so he’s at risk for getting hurt. Meanwhile, George Kittle is coming off an injury, while Mike Evans and Ricky Pearsall tend to get hurt often. There’s a chance Stribling will be the No. 1 receiver in San Francisco at some point.
As for Bell, he has DK Metcalf-type upside, and he’ll be given a chance to be the No. 1 receiver in Miami. Bell is coming off a torn ACL, but it sounds as though he’s close to being 100 percent.
