NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2023: Late Games

New York Giants (0-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1)
Line: Giants by 4.5. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: So much for the Giants not suffering through regression this year! The offense looked miserable against the Cowboys, with the right side of the offensive line surrendering large amounts of pressure. I thought there was a chance this problem would be remedied this year because Evan Neal, a former top-10 pick, was bound to improve upon a poor rookie year. That apparently is not the case.

It may seem like the Giants will have a reprieve from fierce pass rushes now that they don’t have to battle the Cowboys. However, that may not be true. The Cardinals are obviously not the Cowboys, but they placed a surprisingly high amount of pressure on Sam Howell in the opener. Dennis Gardeck and Cameron Thomas were able to flood the backfield, so they could cause some problems for Jones.

If, however, Jones can somehow escape pressure, he should be able to have success throwing against a defense with poor coverage personnel. The Cardinals have been especially bad versus tight ends over the years, so Darren Waller could enjoy a great performance.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals being able to pressure Howell was shocking. The other surprising element of the Arizona-Washington game was Joshua Dobbs not being terrible. Dobbs, despite not knowing his teammates’ names, had his team in position to pull the upset.

Dobbs will have an easier matchup this week, so perhaps he’ll be able to get the victory this time. The Giants showed no signs of any sort of pass rush versus the Cowboys on Sunday night, and Dobbs is actually protected somewhat decently, so he should have ample time to find his receivers.

Speaking of receivers, the Giants’ secondary was as poor as feared on Sunday night. There’s no CeeDee Lamb to defend this week, but Marquise Brown and some of Arizona’s young receivers should perform well.

RECAP: Do the Giants strike you as a team that warrants relinquishing all but two key numbers? The Giants are favored by 5.5 points, so we get four of the six primary key numbers by going the other way. This makes the Cardinals very appealing.

And no, I have not lost my mind. I said it. The Cardinals are very appealing. This spread is just incorrect; I made this New York -2, so if I’m correct, we’re getting a 14.83-percent marginal value by selecting the home underdog. That’s the highest marginal difference of the week.

The Cardinals showed a much better pass rush than expected in the opener, so unless that was a complete mirage, they’ll stand a chance against the Giants and their abysmal offensive line. Besides, there’s a decent chance the Giants will be unfocused, even after their 40-0 loss. I say this because they battle the 49ers this upcoming Thursday, so it’ll be difficult to prepare for this game with the coaches needing to also get ready for a tough battle versus San Francisco.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Darren Waller missed Wednesday’s practice, which is significant because the Cardinals have struggled to stop tight ends for so long. Even more important is that Andrew Thomas was absent on Wednesday as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: Darren Waller will return to action, though Andrew Thomas is questionable after going DLL in practice this week. The sharps have been betting the Cardinals, as you might have noticed by the line dropping.

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0)
Line: 49ers by 7.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Wow, the 49ers were awesome last week. I had concerns about Brock Purdy’s health and the status of the offensive line with Mike McGlinchey gone, but those were apparently not issues at all. McGlinchey’s replacement didn’t actually perform well at all, but Purdy was electric, especially when throwing to Brandon Aiyuk.

It’s hard to imagine the 49ers’ offense slowing down at all. The Rams have Aaron Donald to create havoc in the trenches, but their edge is lackluster. The 49ers’ new right tackle won’t be tested, and Purdy will release quick, accurate passes anyway. Aiyuk should have another big game versus a Jalen Ramsey-less Rams secondary.

The one area where the Rams may win on this side of the ball is defending Christian McCaffrey on the ground. McCaffrey broke free for a long run after Cameron Heyward got hurt last week, but he may not have such an opportunity with Donald on the field. Still, McCaffrey figures to be a big threat as a receiver out of the backfield versus a poor linebacking corps.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: There was plenty of concern that the Rams wouldn’t be able to accomplish anything offensively last week without Cooper Kupp. Those issues were quelled early, as Matthew Stafford showed a great rapport with Puka Nacua. And besides, it’s not like the Seahawks were going to offer much resistance anyway, given that Seattle’s defense can’t generate pressure or stop the run.

The 49ers can certainly do those things. They made Kenny Pickett’s day a living hell by harassing him on half of his dropbacks. Stafford is not protected well like he was a couple of years ago, so he’ll face similar pressure. Suddenly, completing passes to Nacua and Tutu Atwell won’t seem so easy.

San Francisco will also bottle up the two Los Angeles backs. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren accomplished nothing last week, so we’ll likely see similar duds out of Cam Akers and Kyren Williams.

RECAP: Congratulations if you bet the 49ers on the advance line. They were -5 a week ago, but the spread has since ballooned to -8 after their impressive victory in Pittsburgh.

I’m often for fading Week 1 overreactions, but this line move seems warranted. I had a couple of concerns with the 49ers, particularly Brock Purdy’s health and the right tackle play. The new right tackle didn’t perform very well, but that won’t be as much of a factor against the Rams and their poor edge rush. Purdy, conversely, was incredibly sharp. It doesn’t look like he suffered an injury of any sort.

The 49ers could win this game easily, provided they are focused. There’s a chance they may not be because they have a Thursday game on the horizon. They’re also coming off a big statement win on the other side of the country.

I’m going to pick the Rams to cover, but this will not be a wager of any sort. Not only is the motivational angle favoring the Rams; there’s poor line value attached to the 49ers. Again, it’s probably warranted, but I hate betting a bad number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in betting this game, as there are too many conflicting factors.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s nothing new on the injury report. This is a total pass for me. The sharps haven’t touched this either.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Brock Purdy over pass attempts is 29.5 -105 at BetMGM. The sharps are on the Rams, and if they’re right, the 49ers will have to throw more than expected. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

New York Jets (1-0) at Dallas Cowboys (1-0)
Line: Cowboys by 9.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: I’m not a Jets fan, but I was personally hurt by the Aaron Rodgers injury Monday night. I was rooting for the Jets because I had a 30/1 ticket on them to win the Super Bowl. I felt so smart because I placed that wager ahead of the trade. Rodgers going to New York caused that number to drop to 14/1. I was on top of the world.

Well, so much for that. Rodgers is out for the year with a torn Achilles, so the Jets have to move forward with Zach Wilson. If we hadn’t seen so much of Wilson failing, I wouldn’t be as concerned, but Wilson has been a horrific quarterback in his young career. Things can only get worse in this game because he’ll be facing a heavy pass rush. His leaky offensive line allowed lots of pressures last week, so Wilson could be forced into numerous turnovers.

The Jets have some talented play-makers who might be able to help Wilson. There’s Garrett Wilson, whom Zach Wilson seemed to forget for a big stretch of the game. There’s also Breece Hall, who looked electric despite coming off a torn ACL. Hall’s workload was limited because the Jets didn’t want to push him after the injury, but perhaps they’ll give him a bit more work this week.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys didn’t have to do much last week on this side of the ball because their defense and special teams gave them 13 free points at the beginning of the game. Then again, it’s not like Dak Prescott would have been challenged very much, given the Giants’ inability to rush the passer and defend aerial attacks.

The Jets don’t have such issues. They were able to collapse the pocket well versus Josh Allen on Monday night, forcing Allen into four turnovers. Prescott was a turnover machine last year, so he could be forced into some give-aways like Allen was.

Of course, I don’t expect the Cowboys to be shut out, or anything. They have some incredibly talented weapons like Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb, both of whom could score a touchdown in a blur. I suspect they’ll have some big gains, but Dallas’ offense won’t be very consistent.

RECAP: I often like betting good teams playing with their backup quarterbacks. The thinking is that the team will rally around this player by giving 110 percent. Also, there tends to be too much of a line overreaction when a starting signal-caller is injured.

Under normal circumstances, I’d plan on betting several units on the Jets. However, I don’t know if they’ll be able to muster the normal energy we see from good teams in their situation. I say this because they’re coming off an extremely emotional, overtime victory on the anniversary of 9/11. They’re also playing on a short week. All of this should work against them, which is a shame because I wanted to fade the Cowboys after their bogus blowout over the Giants in the opener.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have come in on the Cowboys, perhaps expecting the Jets to be utterly flat following their emotional victory Monday night. I have a feeling they might be right.

SATURDAY NOTES: Zack Martin popped up on the injury report after being limited Thursday and Friday following Wednesday’s practice. This is the only new information we have, and it’s not enough to get me to bet the Jets.

Washington Redskins (0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1)
Line: Broncos by 4. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DENVER OFFENSE: New coach, same problems. Russell Wilson had the worst season of his career under Nathaniel Hackett last year, but was expected to perform much better with Sean Payton on the sidelines. If Wilson is to rebound, we haven’t seen any signs of that, as the Broncos struggled to score against the Raiders’ miserable defense in the opener.

The Redskins have a better stop unit than the Raiders. They’re capable of producing lots of pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run well. They’ll hound Wilson, who may not be protected very well because the offensive line struggled so much in the preseason. Wilson was shielded just fine in Week 1, but the Raiders were missing Chandler Jones because of his dispute with Josh McDaniels.

Given that the Redskins figure to win in the trenches, I don’t expect Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine to do much on the ground. Perine could be effective as a receiver out of the backfield because of Washington’s linebacker concerns, however.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: There were only two teams that produced less pressure on the opposing quarterback than the Broncos in Week 1. Those would be the Bears and Seahawks. Denver produced pressure on just 3.4 percent of dropbacks, which is just sad, but it’s at least better than Seattle and its zero-percent pressure rate.

The Redskins don’t have the best offensive line, but the Raiders don’t either. Sam Howell will enjoy more time in the pocket in this game, which will allow him to have more consistent connections with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.

I’m not convinced the Broncos will be great against the run either. Their ground support will be better than their pass rush, but that’s not really saying much. Brian Robinson could have a decent performance. Hopefully he gets all the carries in the red zone, which you’d think would be common sense, except Antonio Gibson lost a fumble in a run up the middle deep in enemy territory last week.

RECAP: Games land on the margin of three 17.49 percent of the time when the spread is -3.5. So, if you bet a -3.5 line, you better have a damn good reason. I can’t find one in this game.

The Broncos are not a good football team. Russell Wilson is not what he once was, while the pass rush is completely defunct. I’m no fan of the Redskins either, but I think these teams are even. I made this line Denver -2, so the Redskins need to be considered from a pure line value perspective.

Something else that must be considered, however, is that there’s an insane amount of sharp action on the Broncos. I can’t help but think that I’m missing something, but I can’t quite figure what. If you have any ideas, please let me know!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was hoping for some major news on the injury report because there’s so much sharp money on Denver. However, I have found nothing of significance. I don’t get why there’s so much sharp action on the Broncos.

SATURDAY NOTES: Two key players are returning from injury, one for each team. Chase Young and Jerry Jeudy will be on the field, which is great news for both squads. I wonder if Jeudy’s return sparked all of this sharp money. I have no idea otherwise.

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at New England Patriots (0-1)
Line: Dolphins by 1.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: How in the world do you stop this offense? Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill were incredible against the Chargers. The Dolphins didn’t even have their left tackle, and yet they scored at will against a Charger defense that is loaded with talent. The coaches scripted Hill open so well, and Tagovailoa did an incredible job of delivering the ball to him. Hill then did the rest.

One might think that Bill Belichick would have an answer, and he has the horses to slow down the best offenses. He limited the Eagles to just 251 net yards of offense last week, as his defense put relentless pressure on Jalen Hurts. Theoretically, Belichick’s front should be able to hound Tagovailoa if Terron Armstead is sidelined again.

However, the fact that Belichick has never beaten Tagovailoa can’t be ignored. Belichick often dominates young quarterbacks, but Tagovailoa has had the secret sauce in this matchup. I’d say it helps that he has Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal, but Tagovailoa beat Belichick before Hill had even arrived!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots self-destructed at the beginning of the Eagles game, falling behind 16-0 in a flash because of two sloppy turnovers. It looked like it was going to be a long day for Mac Jones and company, especially given the injury issues on the offensive line. However, the Patriots rallied and nearly prevailed.

This bodes well for the Patriots heading into this game. As impressive as Miami’s offense was versus the Chargers, their defense looked just as dreadful most of the time. Granted, they were battling Justin Herbert and all of his weapons, but it’s not like much was expected out of the Dolphins’ defense once Jalen Ramsey suffered a season-ending injury.

Jones, who is coached by a real offensive coordinator this year, could have a strong performance against Miami’s defense. I’m especially intrigued by Kendrick Bourne, who was very high on our Fantasy Football Sleepers list. Bourne has an easy matchup against the Dolphins and their poor secondary.

RECAP: What’s up with these shady Patriots lines? The Eagles were only -3.5 at New England last week, and now Miami is just -2.5 after such an impressive win against the Chargers.

I hate overreacting to things, but I don’t know how Miami’s offense can be stopped as long as everyone’s healthy. You’d think Belichick might have a solution, but history says otherwise because Belichick is 0-4 straight up and against the spread against Tagovailoa. For whatever reason, Tagovailoa has had Belichick’s number.

With that in mind, I made this line Miami -4.5. This makes me want to bet the Dolphins, but I’d hate to think that I’m falling into the Week 1 overreaction trap. Still, the possible line value and matchup history has convinced me to wager a unit or two on Miami.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not going to bet on the Dolphins. The line is now -3 instead of -2.5, and there’s plenty of sharp money coming on the Patriots. I didn’t have a good feel for this game anyway.

SATURDAY NOTES: Look at this:



How is it possible for a team to have so many offensive line injuries in Week 2? If Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu are both out, the Patriots won’t have a functional blocking unit. Despite this, the sharps are all over the Patriots! I don’t get it.

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 40.5.
Monday, Sept. 18, 7:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints certainly didn’t live up to all of their hype in the season opener, at least as far as their offense was concerned. Despite the addition of Derek Carr and the return of Michael Thomas, they scored just 16 points despite being gifted three possessions via Ryan Tannehill’s interceptions.

The problem for the Saints was that they couldn’t pass protect at all. Carr was constantly under siege. Aside from Ryan Ramczyk, everyone struggled to block, especially left tackle Trevor Penning. It got so bad that the TV announcers were begging the Saints coaching staff to give Penning some help. Well, things won’t get any easier for Penning in this game because the Panthers have the personnel to take advantage of poor pass protection. They produced pressure on 31.8 percent of dropbacks, which puts them in the top 10 of Week 1.

The Panthers weren’t nearly as good against the run last week, so there will be some opportunities for Jamaal Williams. However, this is where the Saints will miss Alvin Kamara. Williams is a tremendous short-yardage back, but he’s not a player who can take full advantage of a liability like the Panthers possess.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Speaking of defensive liabilities, the Saints had a bottom-10 pressure rate in the NFL last year. They were able to generate heat on Tannehill last week, but it doesn’t seem too sustainable after losing so much personnel in this department during the offseason. Something the Saints needed was for Cameron Jordan to bounce back from a down year, but he didn’t have a very good 2023 debut.

The Panthers don’t have a great offensive line by any means, but they have a pair of talented tackles in Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton who can keep Jordan and the other Saints edge rushers at bay. Ekwonu was actually impressive in the 2023 opener, which bodes well for Bryce Young. The No. 1 overall pick needs all the blocking help he can get because he had the slowest receiving corps at his disposal last week. D.J. Chark’s potential return will help change that a bit.

Carolina will attempt to establish Miles Sanders, and it should have some success in that regard. The Saints sold out to stop Derrick Henry last week, but Henry still had some nice gains. Sanders is capable of going the distance whenever he touches the ball, so he could break a big gain or two in this contest.

RECAP: I’ve been saying this all summer, but I don’t get the hype with the Saints. I understand that they upgraded Andy Dalton with Derek Carr, but it’s not like Carr is that good. He was benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham last year, for crying out loud. Meanwhile, New Orleans struggles to generate pressure on the quarterback and has major problems protecting its own.

If the Titans swarmed Carr successfully, the Panthers should be able to do so as well. It’s unusual that a home underdog of three points or more would have such a big mismatch edge!

Of course, the Panthers shouldn’t be home underdogs of a field goal. This line should be pick ’em at the very least, but the case can be made for the Panthers to be -2. That’s what the computer model and EPA line say anyway.

I’ll be fading the Saints once again. It worked last week when the Saints were at home. Now, they’ll be in Carolina, where they haven’t enjoyed any success since the Drew Brees days. New Orleans has been outscored 48-21 in its previous two trips to Carolina, and one of those results was with Baker Mayfield quarterbacking the Panthers!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no practice report for either Monday game yet, but there is lots of sharp money on the Panthers.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s nothing of note on the injury report. I still love the Panthers a great deal.

Cleveland Browns (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
Line: Browns by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Monday, Sept. 18, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Philadelphia, home of my Philadelphia Eagles. Tonight, my Philadelphia Eagles are going to kill the living crap out of the stupid Minnesota Vikings. Guys, Mother signed my permission slip to go into the locker room after the game and shake the hands of every member of my Philadelphia Eagles, even if they are in the nude. Especially Jason Kelce.

Emmitt: Thanks, Terra. Except I confusion, very confusion. I thought the entire times that we are in the country of Pittsburgher. I remember when I took geology class in the University of State Florida that the two country of Pittsburgher and Philadelphians are in the same city, but one may more west than the other. And you can tell what way is west because the sun always rise in the west.

Reilly: Emmitt, gosh, you didn’t get my sarcasm. I was trying to tell everyone that it’s bulls**t that the Monday night game we’re covering wasn’t that Eagles-Vikings game. That was the better game because it involved my Philadelphia Eagles. No one cares about the stupid Pissburgh Steelers and stupid Clownland Indians.

Tollefson: Kevin, I find the term “Indian” very offensive. When I kidnap and enslave Native American girls, I make sure to call them Native Americans and not Indians because they are two different types of people. Only a monster would call the Native American girls he kidnaps and enslaves “Indians.” So disrespectful.

Reilly: Tolly, you’re such a good guy. A lot of racists would just call the Native American girls they kidnap and enslave “Indians,” but not you. You’re a true class act. Do you agree John Festerman?

John Fetterman: Hello, Native American casinos are the bridgework of the firewall. The mural on the bakery, truth be told, the case of beer on the 10-yard line is a glass turtle by the bay. Have a joyous Earth Day!

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Anyway, can we virtue signal some more so everyone recognizes how great we are? Maybe if I do that some more, a girl will want to talk to me.

Adam Schefter: Kevin, we have some breaking news. I just talked to every girl in the world, and not one wants to talk to you. Now, if you’ll excuse me, Kevin, I need to inject more Covid vaccines into my anus. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: Schefter, there’s no way you talked to every girl because Mother wants to talk to me! Anyway, let’s get an opinion from our special guest tonight, Mitchell McConnell!

Mitch McConnell: What did you say? I didn’t hear you because I was busy wasting taxpayer money. You’re talking about Indians? Well, here’s the thing about …

Reilly: Hello, Mitch? Hello!? What a pathetic loser. He’s not a winner like John Festerman, or our great president, Joe Bident.

Joe Biden: Now look here, you fruit punch pygmy, you’re talking about Indians. I tell ya, you cannot go to a 7-11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking. You look at those Indian girls, they’re real lady like. They cross their legs and everything. You know, I was raised in an Indian church growing up. All the Indians, they called me Golden Leg Hair Biden. Everyone admired all my golden leg hair, especially at the pool because when the leg hair got wet, it became brown in the water. Now these Indians, they never seen blond hair turned brown before, and they were real impressed. A lot of the Indian chiefs and ministers, they asked me to shower with their daughters. I said, “You want me to shower with your daughters?” and he said, “Yes, I want you to shower with my daughters,” so that’s how the legend of Golden Leg Hair Biden came to be.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe said he was called Golden Leg Hair Biden by the Indian church he grew up when he was Young Sleepy Joe, that’s my nickname for Sleepy Joe when he was a child, Young Sleepy Joe instead of regular Sleepy Joe, that’s a very creative nickname, maybe the best nickname anyone has ever heard, frankly, and Sleepy Joe is lying once again because that’s what he does, he lies, he’s a big liar, probably the biggest liar anyone has ever seen because he’s a total disgrace and a total disaster, frankly, and Young Sleepy Joe wasn’t even called Golden Leg Hair Biden, he was called Young Sleepy Joe, the same nickname I thought of, that’s because I went back in time and told them the great nickname, and they agreed that it was the best nickname they had ever heard, and I told them it was because I was the one who made the nickname, frankly, and they all agreed.

Wolfley: EXCUSE ME, I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS BLOND HAIR TURN BROWN BECAUSE MY 76TH BEST FRIEND CAN MAKE HIS ARM TURN INTO A PHONE BOOTH WITH PICKLES ATTACHED TO IT.

Reilly: Guys, enough of these great feats, they’re making me jealous. I wish I had something like that so I could take showers with girls. New Daddy, do you think you could give me the confidence so I can do that?

Jay Cutler: No.

Reilly: New Daddy, come on! I need some magic tricks to get the ladies to like me!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing magic tricks, Kevin. Let’s discuss some, Kevin. How about the rabbit out of the hat, Kevin? That’s a classic, Kevin. What about sawing a lady in half, Kevin? You’ll never touch a lady, so you won’t be doing that, Kevin. Let’s touch on the scarf in fist trick, Kevin. Don’t forget escaping from an underwater cage, Kevin. You should try it, Kevin, so hopefully you’ll drown, Kevin. Think about linking rings, Kevin. What about levitation, Kevin? And don’t forget the getting a girl to talk to Kevin trick, Kevin, because that can never happen in real life, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I’M GOING TO LEARN A MAGIC SPELL FROM AN INDIAN, I MEAN NATIVE AMERICAN SHAMAN, AND I WILL MAKE YOU TURN INTO A FROG, AND THEN I’LL FEED YOU TO A SNAKE, AND THEN I’LL BE ABLE TO TALK TO GIRLS! We’ll be back after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There was no greater disappointment in Week 1 than the Steelers. They were my favorite Super Bowl long shot, yet they looked dreadful against San Francisco. The team’s biggest problem was pass protection, as the Steelers ranked dead last in that regard, according to the metrics.

It only gets easier from a pass-protection standpoint once moving away from the 49ers. The Browns have a stronger pass rush this year with Za’Darius Smith joining Myles Garrett, but Cleveland won’t generate as much pressure as the 49ers will with Nick Bosa back from his brief holdout. The Steelers will have a better chance to maintain some offensive production as a result, though it would help if they replace the miserable Dan Moore with Broderick Jones.

Kenny Pickett will need the extra time in the pocket because he won’t have Diontae Johnson available because of an injury suffered in the opener. Pickett still has plenty of weapons, however, and he can also feed the ball to his running backs in what should be a positive matchup for them. The Browns had some problems versus Joe Mixon this past weekend.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Pickett wasn’t the only quarterback in the AFC North who struggled last weekend. Actually, they all did. Watson spent much of the afternoon skipping passes to his receivers. Granted, the weather was a factor, but Watson still doesn’t look like the talented quarterback who dominated in 2020. And unlike Pickett, Watson can’t use his offensive line as an excuse because his blocking is normally terrific.

I say “normally” terrific because the Browns lost right tackle Jack Conklin to a season-ending knee injury. This is not a good time for that, as the Steelers can produce heavy amounts of pressure on the quarterback, even if Cameron Heyward is sidelined. Pittsburgh’s edge rush should bother Watson, who could continue to bounce passes to his targets.

Of course, the Browns will attempt to establish Nick Chubb, which will have a better chance of working without Heyward. We saw last week that Christian McCaffrey was able to break free for a long run when Heyward was off the field. The Steelers should still have a decent rush defense overall, but it’ll be difficult to contain the NFL’s top pure runner.

RECAP: We might as well have one more example of a Week 1 overreaction to close out Week 2. The Steelers were -1 on the advance line, but because they lost to what could be the best team in the NFL, and the Browns beat up on a one-legged Joe Burrow, Cleveland is now favored by 2.5.

I still think the Steelers should be favored. I think they’re the better team overall, especially in the wake of the Conklin injury. They beat the Browns soundly on this field around this time last year, and that was without Watt being available. Sure, the Browns started Jacoby Brissett over Watson, but it’s not like Watson is even playing well.

I’m hoping this line goes to +3. If so, I’ll have a big wager on the Steelers. I still have plenty of interest at +2.5, but it’ll be nice to get the all-important fourth significant key number with the home underdog. Still though, think about how little sense this line makes. The 49ers were -2.5 in Pittsburgh, so this spread is saying San Francisco and Cleveland are even. What!?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on the other home dog, as the pros are backing the Steelers, albeit at a lesser clip than the Panthers.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was some concern with the Steelers’ injury report beyond Diontae Johnson and Cameron Heyward, but every other player who was limited in practice is not on the final injury report. In fact, the turntables have turned because Amari Cooper is now questionable for this game following a Saturday downgrade.