NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2023

Detroit Lions (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Line: Chiefs by 4. Total: 54.5.
Thursday, Sept. 7, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Football is back! I can’t believe the summer went by so quickly. Not that I’m complaining, but where did it go? Does anyone else feel as though this was the quickest summer of their lives?

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast version with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

At any rate, I’m looking forward to this season. I’ve done a lot of research this summer to refine my handicapping. We’re coming off a great year, and I think this season could be even better!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I don’t need to tell you that the Chiefs will score plenty of points in this game, but perhaps it needs to be pointed out that doing so won’t be as easy as some think. The Lions had one of the league’s worst defenses in the first half of 2022, but improved markedly at the halfway point of the season. Some of their younger players were much better, including Aidan Hutchinson, who became a force on the edge. Detroit then added a good amount of talent to its secondary this offseason, picking up Emmanuel Moseley, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, and Brian Branch.

Hutchinson will be even better in his second season, which could be problematic for a Kansas City offensive line that went through a transition this spring. The Chiefs have two new tackles, so it remains to be seen how this new unit will function. Patrick Mahomes enjoyed flawless protection during his playoff run, but that’s not likely to be the case in this season opener.

Then again, we’re talking about Mahomes, who is the best quarterback in the NFL. There’s also Travis Kelce, who will create a huge mismatch edge against Detroit’s shaky linebacking corps. The two could have a terrific 2023 debut, nullifying all potential concerns, at least for this game.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While breaking in a new offensive line is problematic, Kansas City’s greatest concern is the potential absence of Chris Jones. The All-Pro defensive tackle is currently holding out, so it doesn’t appear as though he will play in this game.

Jones’ absence would be a massive blow to the Chiefs, whose defense isn’t nearly the same unit without him. The pass rush will severely diminish without Jones, so Jared Goff will enjoy more time in the pocket than expected, which is saying something because Detroit boasts an elite offensive line. He’ll have an easy time carving through Kansas City’s young secondary.

The Detroit rushing attack will also be enhanced with Jones being out of the lineup. The Lions used the No. 12 overall pick on Jahmyr Gibbs, whom the team has compared to Alvin Kamara or Jamaal Charles. Having this sort of dynamic threat in the backfield will bring a new dimension to an already-explosive offense.

RECAP: If you want to bet on the Chiefs, you’re paying a tax because Vegas knows that this is public inclination. Nearly two-thirds of the bets are coming in on Kansas City, after all. It should come as no surprise, but casual bettors want to wager on the defending Super Bowl champions.

The tax means that the line is too high, however. Based on the ratings of these teams – using my NFL Power Rankings and adjusted EPA – I believe the correct spread is Kansas City -4.5. It’s only a difference of two points, but the key number of six is involved. Since the new extra point rule, games priced at -4.5 see margins of six occur 7.8 percent of the time. If you don’t think that’s significant, imagine hitting 50 percent of your plays, and then nailing 57.8 percent of your bets. In one case, you’re losing. In the other, you’re probably getting booted from some ghetto sportsbooks like Pointsbet.

I like the Lions quite a bit. Not only are we getting five of six key numbers with them; we’re also fading the team with the best absent player (Chris Jones). Also, there’s a chance the young Chiefs players did a bit too much celebrating following their Super Bowl victory. Do we honestly think they’ll be 100-percent focused against the Lions? They likely deem this to be an easy victory after going through the Bengals and Eagles seven months ago.

Our Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: So, a lot has changed since I posted this pick on Tuesday morning. Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in Tuesday’s practice, so he could be sidelined. He’s currently questionable after missing Wednesday’s practice. Losing Kelce would be a huge blow to the offense, but the spread has compensated for that. Check back Thursday evening for my final thoughts and official wager once we know Kelce’s status.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Travis Kelce has been ruled out. That, as well as tons of sharp action on the Lions, has dropped this spread down to +4, or even +3.5 in some places. The best line I see is +4 -110 at BetMGM and Bovada. This is still a three-unit play.

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 3.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I’ve bet the Falcons to win the NFC South at 2/1 odds because of numerous upgrades they’ve made this offseason. The one casual fans know about Bijan Robinson, who will add a new element to the offense. The Falcons had a strong rushing attack last year, but Robinson is a dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield. Defenses will undoubtedly be focused on that, which will open things up for Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Robinson drawing attention will be especially problematic for the Panthers, who were 29th against the pass last year. They had major problems defending Pitts, who caught five passes for 80 yards and a touchdown in the matchup in Atlanta last year. In that game, Tyler Allgeier turned three catches into 46 receiving yards and a touchdown. Think Robinson is going to do more than that?

The problem for the Panthers is that they can’t generate any pressure on the quarterback outside of Brian Burns. They really miss Haason Reddick, as their pass rush was sorely diminished without him. Desmond Ridder should have all the time he needs to lead his team to victory.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Speaking of weak pass rushes, the Falcons maintained the league’s worst pressure rate in both 2021 and 2022. It’s highly unlikely that this will occur a third time, given those aforementioned offseason upgrades. Two major improvements made to the front seven were Calais Campbell and Kaden Ellis, both of whom can create havoc for opposing passers.

This is not good news for Bryce Young, who will be operating behind a shaky blocking unit. Young had trouble with his protection in the preseason despite battling against backups on occasion, so you have to wonder how he’ll deal with it in real action. This wouldn’t have been an issue for Young last year, but the Falcons will actually be able to generate pressure.

Knowing this, the Panthers will want to keep the ball out of the rookie quarterback’s hands. However, the Falcons made other upgrades to their defense, so they figure to be better than the middle-of-the-pack standing versus the run from last year.

RECAP: I’ve heard the opinion that betting Week 1 NFL games during the summer is foolish. To those who think that way, I’d like to provide this as an example of why it’s sometimes necessary.

This spread used to be Falcons -2.5. I liked the Falcons at that number, but so did the sharps, because they moved the line to -3. I still liked Atlanta a bit at -3, but so did the sharps as well, because they then moved the line to -3.5.

I no longer like the Falcons at -3.5. The case could be made that Atlanta by three is the most likely result of this game. If you don’t believe me, when games are lined -3.5, the result of three occurs 17.5 percent of the time!

I’ve always said that if you bet a -3.5, you need a damn good reason to do so, and I can’t really find one here. I think the Falcons are better than the Panthers, and I like the idea of fading a new coach-new quarterback dynamic, but it’s not like Atlanta is some established juggernaut. There’s a chance I could be wrong about the Falcons being improved, and call me crazy, but I don’t trust Ridder to consistently cover a -3.5 line unless he’s playing an absolutely dreadful team like the Falcons.

I’m still going to pick the Falcons, but I won’t be betting them. I wish I had done so earlier this summer.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still salty that we missed the -2.5 and -3 lines. I can’t bet a -3.5 confidently, knowing that Desmond Ridder needs to have a good game to consistently cover that spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance the Panthers could be without their top two receivers. D.J. Chark has been ruled out, while Adam Thielen was LDL in practice this week. A limited designation probably means he plays, but if he’s ruled out Sunday morning, this spread could be steamed up to -5.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The site can’t load, of course, but I hope some people see these. Anyway, Adam Thielen will play, which takes the Falcons out of consideration for me. I still like the Falcons, but can’t bet the -3.5. I was hoping to find a -3 out there, but I don’t see one available. The sharps bet the Falcons at -2.5 and -3, but not -3.5.

Houston Texans (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 9.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Jaguars -4.5

Bills -2.5

Redskins -7

Ravens -10

Dolphins +3

I can’t say I’m surprised that two road favorites are getting the most money!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens were apparently tired of their quarterbacking having no one to throw to besides Mark Andrews, so they decided to make wholesale changes to their receiving corps. They obtained Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers to join Rashon Bateman to give Jackson some viable threats.

This improved receiving corps will be vital to cracking Houston’s defense. Many don’t realize this, but the Texans had a very underrated stop unit last year. They were fifth in pass defense EPA, and that’s not even factoring in third-overall pick Will Anderson, who will bolster the pass rush. Anderson and company will hound Jackson, who isn’t protected nearly as well as he was during his MVP season in 2019.

Jackson, of course, will do some damage on the ground, but what about J.K. Dobbins and the other Baltimore backs? The Texans may be known for their woeful rush defense in some circles – particularly those who play Derrick Henry against them in DFS – but the Texans improved versus the run in the second half of last year. Thus, Dobbins fantasy owners may be disappointed when their runner doesn’t quite look like Henry in this matchup.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans’ top-10 defense from a year ago couldn’t save the team from having one of the worst records in the NFL. That’s because the offense was so dreadful. Davis Mills was not a serious starting quarterback, so it was obvious that Houston had to use the No. 2 overall selection on an upgrade.

C.J. Stroud has tons of talent and can become Houston’s franchise quarterback, but there will be growing pains in his rookie campaign, and especially in his first start. However, perhaps those growing pains won’t be too sharp in this matchup because Baltimore’s defense was a shell of its former self last year, especially when it came to defending the pass. The Ravens were just 24th in that regard, and they lost a couple of veterans this offseason to perhaps worsen that ranking.

The Ravens were much stronger versus the run than the pass last year, so I don’t have good news for Dameon Pierce. However, Calais Campbell is no longer around, so perhaps Pierce will have a bit more success than he would have had in a hypothetical 2022 matchup.

RECAP: John Harbaugh is nearly flawless in Week 1. Just look at the trends below if you don’t believe me. It’s remarkable how well he’s done with all offseason to prepare for a game.

With Harbaugh’s record, it’s so difficult to fade the Ravens, but that’s what I’m going to do in this scenario. You may think I’m crazy because not only am I picking against Harbaugh; I’m also siding with a new coach-new quarterback dynamic. I know, I know.

However, I think this line is outrageous. To show you how outrageous, I made this spread Baltimore -4. I don’t think the Ravens are very good, and I believe the Texans are better than people think they are. Houston’s defense is legit, and Stroud, despite being a rookie, is a huge upgrade over Mills. I’ve said this on the After Dark Show, but I don’t think it’s that crazy to bet the Texans to make the playoffs this year at 6/1 odds.

Unfortunately, I don’t think I can place a multi-unit bet on Houston. Despite everything I said, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we saw more Harbaugh magic amid a 49-10 victory, or something like that. If something of that nature occurs, you better believe I’ll be hammering the Texans hard next week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Texans will be without three starting offensive linemen, so I’m going to be completely off of them. They still have some quality blockers, but missing a trio of blockers could really hurt.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens won’t have Marlon Humphrey in this game, but that doesn’t matter much to me, considering the matchup. I still like the Texans a bit, but I’m more concerned about their offensive line missing three starters.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Mark Andrews is out, which has dropped the spread to +9.5. I may end up betting the Texans after all. I’ll see how I feel Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to bet a unit on the Texans. I think this line is way too high, and the sharps agree. The best line is +9.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
Line: Bengals by 2. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some of what we saw last season:



On second thought, I’m not quite sure Matt Gregory/Greg Matthews knows how to read.

Here’s more from Matt/Greg:



I couldn’t imagine being this clueless about sports betting. I got the game right, yet he’s criticizing me for it! Then again, this is the same guy who doesn’t know as much football as his 4-year-old niece:



Let’s get to another hate mailer, with this one being from Twitter:



Darius got the game wrong – his 4-year-old niece must also be smarter than him – but he also resorted to calling me fat:



That would be impossible. If that were true, I’d be the smartest person in the world.

Here’s one more:



I’m actually sincere in my response. I’m a bit disappointed to only be up about $5,000 now, especially after how we started the year.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow suffered a scary moment in training camp when he was carted off the field. Burrow is on track to play in this game, but at what capacity? The latest report we have concerning Burrow is Ian Rapoport citing that “all signs point” to Burrow playing versus Cleveland. That’s not the most encouraging statement, as it seems as though there’s a good chance that Burrow won’t be fully healthy.

This is unfortunate for Burrow, who had severe struggles the last time he visited Cleveland. His team was down 25-0 at one point, as his offensive line couldn’t protect against Myles Garrett. There’s a better chance of that occurring with Orlando Brown now shielding Burrow’s blind side, but if Burrow doesn’t have any mobility as a result of his balky calf, he’ll be a sitting duck in the pocket.

One possible solution to this issue is that the Bengals could establish Joe Mixon. The long-time Cincinnati runner really struggled last year, but he was dealing with an injury. Now healthy, there’s a chance that Mixon will rebound to 2021 form. The Browns were just average versus the run last year, so there’s a chance for Mixon to succeed.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While Burrow had trouble maintaining drives in last year’s Halloween battle, Jacoby Brissett couldn’t miss. He was 17-of-22 for 278 yards and a touchdown. Deshaun Watson was supposed to be an upgrade over Brissett when he returned from suspension, but he was anything but. Watson’s incompetence sunk Cleveland’s offense, causing the team to sputter down the stretch.

It was obvious that Watson was going to struggle after a long layoff from football, but he’s had an entire offseason to re-acclimate himself into the NFL and gel with his teammates. I was bullish on the Browns’ chances because of that, but Watson looked just as lost in his primary preseason performance. Perhaps this was Watson being aloof in a meaningless game, but it’s still worrying. Watson would ordinarily have a nice matchup against a Cincinnati secondary that lost some talent this offseason, but there’s no guarantee that Watson will be able to take advantage of that.

The Bengals at least figure to be stronger versus the run. This is obviously key for this matchup, as Nick Chubb trampled through the Bengals in the aforementioned Halloween contest.

RECAP: When this line was initially released, all I heard was, “Wow, the Bengals are only favored by 2.5!? This is easy money!” My response to those saying that was: “Remember the last time the Bengals went into Cleveland.” The Browns ripped the Bengals a new one on Halloween, beating them, 32-13.

The Browns, for whatever reason, have had the Bengals number. I can’t explain why, but that’s been the case. And now, the Bengals are supposed to beat the Browns on the road with Burrow possibly being less than 100 percent? I’m not buying it.

I like Cleveland, if you couldn’t tell. This, however, is not a big play because I just don’t know what to make of Watson. As stated earlier, he was putrid in the preseason, so if that continues, the Bengals could find a way to win this game. Still, it seems like the Browns have a nice advantage going against an injured quarterback as home underdogs.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This has nothing to do with this game, but I finally pulled the trigger on Nick Chubb winning offensive player of the year on my NFL Betting Futures page. I think he should be the favorite for the rushing title, which should earn him the award.

SATURDAY NOTES: The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced Joe Burrow isn’t 100 percent. I’m going to put a unit on the Browns, but I feel like we’re getting robbed with a bad number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have dragged the Browns down to +1. I still like them for a unit, and I considered going to two. The best line was just +1.5 at Bovada, but they moved it to +1 as soon as I tried to punch in my bet. The top line is now +1 across the board.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Line: Jaguars by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

Contest Announcement time!

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It’s almost impossible to remember how horrible Trevor Lawrence played as a rookie. Lawrence had the misfortune of being coached by the inept Urban Meyer, so he naturally improved under a real coach last year. Lawrence was especially hot down the stretch in incredible comebacks versus the Cowboys and Chargers.

Lawrence will be even better this year with Calvin Ridley joining the active roster. Lawrence will have a legitimate No. 1 receiver at his disposal for the first time in his professional career, which is bad news for an Indianapolis secondary that lost Stephon Gilmore to a trade this offseason. Lawrence will be able to shred the Colts with all of his weapons.

The Jaguars will have success against the Colts on the ground as well, assuming that Shaq Leonard continues to miss action. Leonard was out for most of last year, and it sounds like he’ll once again be sidelined with a concussion. It makes you wonder if he’ll ever play again.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Anthony Richardson will be making the first start of his career, and I don’t think he’s ready. Richardson was hideous as a passer in the preseason. Granted, the Colts didn’t design any running plays for him in meaningless games, but Richardson didn’t look close to prepared for real action.

I’d feel better about Richardson playing if the Colts could protect him well, but I don’t trust their blocking at all. The Jaguars will be able to take advantage of this liability, as they have Travon Walker and Josh Allen to generate pressure on Richardson.

Another reason Richardson should sit for a while is the lack of a running game. Jonathan Taylor is holding out/nursing some fake injury, so it’ll be up to Deon Jackson and Evan Hull to carry the load. The problem with that, pertaining to this matchup, is that the Jaguars were sixth versus the rush last year.

RECAP: Does this line feel trappy to you? It feels trappy to me. The Jaguars were a playoff team from last year, while the Colts had one of the worst records in the league. Indianapolis also has a new coach and a new quarterback. Why, then, are the Jaguars favored by only 4.5 points in this matchup, especially with Taylor sidelined?

One guess is that the Colts are viewed favorably by the sharps. I spoke to some professional bettors this summer, and a couple of them pointed out Indianapolis as a positive regression team. I don’t quite buy it because the Colts don’t have much going for them. I think there’s a good chance they’ll be a bottom-three team in the NFL this year, especially if Leonard continues to miss time.

Conversely, I really like the Jaguars. I did some digging into their metrics this offseason, and I came away impressed. It wouldn’t shock me at all if they dominated this matchup as a result, but then again, a three-point victory wouldn’t surprise me either because it sure seems like something fishy is going on.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Colts, though not a crazy amount. I’m not buying it. I think they’re going to suck this year.

SATURDAY NOTES: No change here, and the injury report was a nothin’ burger.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Colts, but I think they’re wrong about this. We’ll see. I don’t have an urge to bet the Jaguars. If you do, -3.5 is available at FanDuel and BetMGM.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 4.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: We constantly bet against the Vikings last year, but it had nothing to do with the offense in most games. Minnesota had a stellar scoring unit last year, and it’ll be even better in 2023 if Jordan Addison is as good as advertised.

I made sure I said “most” games because I criticized Kirk Cousins’ inability to handle a strong pass rush in battles against the Eagles and Cowboys. All quarterbacks struggle with pressure, but the dichotomy with Cousins is greater than with anyone else. Luckily for Cousins, he won’t be dealing with any sort of pass rush in this contest, as the Buccaneers couldn’t get to the quarterback last year.

The one change on this side of the ball for the Vikings, aside from Addison replacing Adam Thielen, is Alexander Mattison subbing in for the departed Dalvin Cook. I think this could actually be an upgrade, as Cook was a very inefficient runner last year. Regardless, it’s not an ideal matchup for Mattison, given that Tampa Bay was seventh versus the run last year.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers were horrible last year, but they were able to win the worst division in football last year because Tom Brady willed them to victory in some games, including the Week 17 battle against the Panthers. Brady was not very good overall, but his declining performance can be attributed to his team’s horrific blocking.

As pedestrian as Brady was last year, he’s still a better option than Baker Mayfield, whose pocket presence and football IQ have diminished considerably. However, it’s possible that Mayfield could have a great debut with the Buccaneers because Minnesota’s defense is so bad. The Vikings also have no pass rush (outside of Danielle Hunter), while their secondary is in shambles. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have terrific matchups, as Mayfield enjoys a rare, clean pocket.

The Vikings were better versus the run than the pass last year, but only by default. They were just 22nd versus the rush, so this bodes well for Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.

RECAP: If you read my Survivor Pool Advice page, you know that I think this is the survivor trap game of the week. The Vikings are a high favorite, so they’re sure to be a popular play against lowly Tampa. However, I think there’s a decent chance the Buccaneers will pull the outright upset.

I love the matchup the Buccaneer receivers have with Minnesota’s dreadful secondary. I also think Tampa’s weak offensive line won’t be exposed by the Vikings, who have diminished their pass rush this offseason. A six-point underdog shouldn’t have such advantages over such a big favorite. A big favorite that has a matchup against the Eagles next Thursday, by the way.

The back door will be open for the Buccaneers, should they need it. We’re getting five of the six key numbers with them on this inflated line, after all. Given that there’s a good possibility of an upset occurring, Tampa Bay is one of my top picks of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Buccaneers, and I’m going to lock this in soon for fear that the line will drop to +5.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I love being a dad to my two amazing children, but the slight downside is that I can’t monitor the spreads closely anymore. I missed the +6s, but I would consider buying up. Hopefully we get a good opportunity to do so on Sunday morning. Regardless, I still love the Buccaneers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ugh, so much for paying up for +6. The sharps have pounded the Buccaneers into oblivion, dragging this line down to +4 at almost every sportsbook. The best vig is -106 at Bookmaker, which is not a surprise.

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I can’t say I disagree with the sentiment regarding these two teams. I’ve seen some projecting the Titans to achieve as few as four victories, which seems unlikely, given the coaching staff. Also, the Titans added DeAndre Hopkins this offseason to give them a legitimate threat at receiver that they missed last year after trading A.J. Brown.

Many aren’t fans of the Titans’ offensive line, and I can’t say I am either. However, I think there’s a chance the unit will be better than people are projecting, as Peter Skoronski, Andre Dillard and Dillon Radunz have the potential to be quality starters in the NFL. Regardless of how they play for the rest of the season, they’ll have an opportunity to perform on a high level in this matchup because New Orleans has a poor pass rush. The Saints were bottom 10 in pressure rate last year, and that was with Marcus Davenport and Kaden Ellis. They drafted some rookies as replacements, but there’s no guarantee they’ll succeed in the pros, especially in their first game.

The Saints also have to worry about stopping the run, which was also a problem last year. They were 25th versus the rush, which does not bode well in a matchup against Derrick Henry.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I have some concerns with the Saints’ offensive line as well. New Orleans’ front projects to be superior to Tennessee’s, but the Saints will actually have to deal with a quality pass rush in this matchup.

The Titans didn’t put great pressure on the quarterback last year, but Harold Landry was out for the season. Landry’s return will be huge for Tennessee’s front seven, and defense as a whole. Derek Carr won’t have an easy time in the pocket, though I suspect he’ll be able to connect with Chris Olave and Michael Thomas for some big gains.

Another problem for Carr is that Alvin Kamara won’t be available. The Saints’ offense has been much worse without Kamara since the dynamic back entered the NFL, so points will be at a premium until he returns. His replacement is Jamaal Williams, one of the most overrated players in the NFL. Williams is known for his league-leading touchdown total from last year, but that is always a fluky statistic that regresses.

RECAP: I don’t understand what everyone’s obsession with the Saints is. Everyone seems to believe they’ll win the NFC South, yet they have no pass rush, and they also have issues on the offensive line. And for the first three weeks, Kamara is out as well.

Oh, and the Saints are extremely poorly coached. Dennis Allen is atrocious, giving the Titans a huge edge with Mike Vrabel. It just so happens that Vrabel is excellent when it comes to covering as an underdog, making Tennessee very appealing.

Then again, the argument could be made that the Titans shouldn’t even be underdogs in the fist place. My personal line says this spread should be Tennessee -1.5, so I love the 4.5 points of value. That’s a marginal difference of 10.8 percent, which is tremendous.

With the coaching mismatch and spread value, the Titans are an obvious choice to be one of the top plays of the week. I’d love this even more if we were still getting +3.5, but the sharps took care of that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been all over the Titans. I’m worried about a line drop here as well, so I’ll lock in this pick until I see a real injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: We didn’t miss the +3 line here, which is still available despite all the sharp money on Tennessee. That said, some of the juice is making it seem like this line will drop to +2.5, so I’m going to lock in the +3 -115 at FanDuel. Also, now that this line has dropped to +2.5 in some sportsbooks, it’s OK to put Tennessee into a teaser. My other team in the teaser will be the Steelers.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Derek Carr over pass attempts is 31.5 -110 at BetMGM. I think the Saints will be trailing in this game, so Carr will have to throw. According to OddsShopper, -110 is the best vig by far for this prop. I also like Michael Thomas over 3.5 receptions -115. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, there’s sharp money on the Titans. The best line available is +3 -117. If you happen to like the Saints, you can get -2.5 -115 at BetMGM.

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
Line: 49ers by 2. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: People tend to underestimate the importance of elite pass rushers. You’d think that would be a ridiculous thing to say, but hardly any public bettors noticed that T.J. Watt’s absence had a profound impact on the Steelers last year. The Steelers were 1-6 and 30th against the pass without Watt, yet they were 8-2 and sixth versus the pass with him. Their only losses were to the Bengals and Ravens, two playoff teams that they beat in their other matchups against them.

I bring up Watt because Nick Bosa is a similar player. Bosa is currently holding out, so he may not play in this game. San Francisco’s defense is a vastly different unit without him, and if you doubt that, check out what happened in the 49ers’ embarrassing loss to the Falcons last year as proof. If Bosa is out, Pittsburgh’s improved offensive line will shield Kenny Pickett, who is coming off a tremendous preseason. George Pickens and Diontae Johnson will have their way against the 49ers’ troubled cornerbacks.

The Steelers will obviously attempt to establish their backs as well, especially Jaylen Warren, who was very impressive in the preseason. Running against the 49ers will prove to be difficult, however, as San Francisco boasted the league’s top ground defense last year.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Doubters of the 49ers don’t believe in Brock Purdy. I have some concerns with him, but not regarding his talent. I love Purdy’s quick release, accuracy, and intelligence. He seems perfect for Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

My concern with Purdy is in relation to his surgically repaired elbow. I don’t know if Purdy will have the stamina to play a complete game, so he could struggle, especially if the 49ers’ replacement for Mike McGlinchey at right tackle doesn’t perform up to par. Remember how good the Steelers were with Watt last year, so imagine how Watt will dominate a team breaking in a new starting tackle.

Purdy will naturally want to lean on Christian McCaffrey. However, the Steelers were 11th against the run last year, and they made an upgrade in their linebacking corps when they obtained Cole Holcomb. McCaffrey will still be productive, but this is not a matchup in which he’s likely to be completely dominant.

RECAP: I mentioned in the Falcons-Panthers write-up that it was extremely important to bet an early number in the summer. This is another example of that. The Steelers were +3 for a while, but the sharps took the line down to +2.5.

Despite the line move off three, I still like the Steelers a good deal, provided Bosa misses this game. The 49ers have an elite defense, but they are not the same unit without Bosa. The Steelers, meanwhile, are my favorite long shot to win the Super Bowl at 60/1. They’re great with Watt on the field, and Watt gives them a big edge against a team breaking in a new tackle. The offense is also expected to make a big leap.

I would have made this a five-unit play had +3 still been available. I’m going to wager four units on the Steelers now, but I’ll be looking out for a +3 to reappear. Keep in mind that this will all be moot if Bosa reports back to the team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Argh. Nick Bosa re-signed, so he’ll almost certainly be on the field for this game. I liked the Steelers a lot previously, but now I have just a slight lean in their direction.

SATURDAY NOTES: I forgot to change the unit count below when I posted my Thursday Thoughts. The proper unit count is now two. It sucks that Bosa will be available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, my unit count was sliced in half because of the Nick Bosa news, but it’s worth noting that the sharps haven’t cared. They’ve been on the Steelers all week. I’m not seeing anything better than +2 -110 at BetMGM.

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 7. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

Video of the Week: The NFL is back, so I must remind you of what was stolen from us, due to ESPN’s incompetence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDyQiSUh7eU&t=1472s

Check out the game starting at 22 minutes. Imagine having Seahawks +3 in that game! The Ravens were able to push because of two successful Hail Marys, a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, an injury to Matt Hasselbeck, and a fourth timeout awarded to Baltimore!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’m beginning with the Cardinals because we don’t know who’s going to quarterback their team in Week 1. It was supposed to be Colt McCoy, but they cut him. Now, it’s down to Joshua Dobbs versus Clayton Tune. New head coach Jonathan Gannon said he’s keeping his decision a secret because of a competitive advantage. I imagine Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio are losing sleep as a result.

Regardless of which quarterback gets the nod, the Cardinals aren’t expected to do much on this side of the ball. The Redskins have a fierce pass rush, even without Chase Young, so they should be able to hound whichever overwhelmed quarterback starts. Washington was mediocre when it came to stopping the run last year, but it’ll be able to load the box against James Conner because of the quarterback situation.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins don’t exactly have the most proven quarterback either, as Slingin’ Sammy Howell will be making the second start of his professional career. I liked Howell in North Carolina, however, and he’s been impressive when given the chance in the pros, whether it’s been his preseason performances or his upset of Dallas in the finale last year.

Howell will get a dream matchup in Week 1. As bad as the Cardinals are offensively, they’re even worse on this side of the ball. They have no pass rush to speak of, while their secondary is a total disaster. Even if Terry McLaurin is out, Howell should have his way with Arizona’s beleaguered defensive backfield.

The Cardinals weren’t horrible at stopping the run last year, but keep in mind that J.J. Watt had something to do with that. Watt has retired, so Brian Robinson has a promising matchup as well.

RECAP: Earlier in the summer, I would have sided with the Cardinals in this game. I said this to QuackyTakes when I was on the phone with him: “There’s no way I’m laying seven with this stupid Redskins team.”

Things have changed, however. The Cardinals cut McCoy, leaving them with either Dobbs or Tune as the starter. Believe me, I’m no big fan of McCoy, but he was at least a stable presence under center. Dobbs has no chemistry with his teammates, while Tune has no experience. I’m all for going against dreadful teams starting horrible quarterbacks, and this certainly qualifies.

I almost talked myself into betting Washington. However, I just can’t do it. Regardless of the quarterback situation, I just can’t bring myself to lay seven with this stupid Redskins team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Barring some insane injury news, I can’t see myself betting either side in this stupid game.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s no insane injury news, unless you consider Terry McLaurin being off the injury report “insane.” I don’t. Let’s just move on with our lives.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in betting this game. If you do, the best line is Redskins -6.5 -114 at FanDuel. The sharps have not touched this abomination.