NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2020

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5) at Green Bay Packers (14-3)
Line: Packers by 3.5. Total: 53.5.
Sunday, Jan. 24, 3:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

WEEK 19 RECAP: The first round of the playoffs was a disaster, but the second round was much better. We went 3-1, +$285, with the only loss being New Orleans -3. I couldn’t believe Drew Brees played so poorly against Tampa’s secondary, but there is an explanation for this, which I’ll get to in this write-up.

My Week 20 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season and 34-42 heading into Week 19.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

None

There were no heavily bet sides, so nothing to report.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

None

There are no heavily bet sides once again this week! Everything is less than 60-percent action. Perhaps that’ll change later in the week.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



I’m not sure if this qualifies as hate mail, but I know that some NFL personnel read this Web site. If the Browns were truly mad, then they weren’t mad enough!

Here’s something from someone with Lockdown Derangement Syndrome:



I don’t think there’s anyone on the planet who follows the science quite like I do. I’m getting tired of these science deniers who claim that the minor illness going around is very serious. I’ve done nothing but look at the science and determine that this is not the case.

Here’s someone who thinks I’m a square:



I don’t even know where I projected both No. 1 seeds to go to the Super Bowl because my preseason prediction was Buccaneers over Chiefs.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: What happened to Tampa Bay’s secondary? It was considered a liability for most of the year, but it completely shut down New Orleans’ passing attack. Drew Brees was dreadful last week, going 19-of-34 for 134 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Michael Thomas was held catchless. Even those who predicted a Tampa Bay upset couldn’t have called something like that to occur.

News broke the next day, however, that Thomas needs to undergo multiple surgeries on his ankle this offseason, which would explain why he was so limited in the loss to the Buccaneers. That would also be a logical reason for why the Buccaneers’ secondary was so great in the divisional round. It’s only reasonable to expect some regression from Tampa’s aerial defense, especially against Davante Adams.

Despite this, I’m not completely bearish on Tampa’s chances of stopping Aaron Rodgers. The problem I have is Green Bay’s injury-ravaged offensive line trying to block the Buccaneers’ elite front, which could welcome Vita Vea back from injury. I know the Packers just shielded Rodgers well from the Rams, but Aaron Donald was visibly limited in that game. The Buccaneers, conversely, will be better in the trenches if Vea is available, which is a scary proposition for the Packers, esepcially given that Aaron Jones and the other running backs won’t be able to do much damage against the Buccaneers’ elite ground defense.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers also have some challenges on this side of the ball. The Packers have a tremendous pass defense, so Tom Brady will have another tough task. Brady was fortunate that three possible interceptions were dropped last week. He may not be so lucky this time.

That said, there will be some opportunities for Brady to play well. Jaire Alexander is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, and he’ll shut down Mike Evans, just like Marshon Lattimore did last week. However, Brady will still have Chris Godwin and presumably Antonio Brown at his disposal, and outside of Alexander, the Packers don’t have cornerbacks who can handle those mega talents. The one caveat is that Brown had an MRI on his knee, but reports indicate that it’s not very serious and he’s expected to play in the NFC Championship.

Brady will also be able to lean on the running game. I was impressed with how well the Buccaneers moved the chains on the ground in the divisional round. Leonard Fournette looked like the tremendous back of old versus the Saints, who have a rather potent ground defense. The Packers are far worse versus the rush, so Tampa will be able to establish both Fournette and Ronald Jones to give Brady better opportunities to combat Green Bay’s secondary.

RECAP: The first thing I wondered when handicapping this game was the weather. The Buccaneers are the only warm-weather team remaining in the playoffs, so if the conditions in Lambeau were completely frigid, snowy and windy, that would be detrimental for Tampa’s chances. A glance at the weather report reveals that it’s going to be approximately 30 degrees at kickoff with minimal winds, which isn’t that bad. If that holds, the weather will be a non-factor. However, it’s something I’ll continue to monitor as the week progresses.

If the weather isn’t impactful, I like the Buccaneers’ chances of covering the spread. The most prominent matchup edge in this game is the Buccaneers’ elite defensive line against a Packer front missing two starters. I considered Green Bay the overwhelming favorite to reach the Super Bowl from the NFC before the David Bakhtiari injury, but Bakhtiari’s absence will be felt in this game.

Unfortunately, we lost our line value. When I saw this spread open at +4, I never thought we had to rush to bet this game. Given how lackluster the Buccaneers-Saints affair was, I figured the public would potentially bump up this line. Instead, the spread has fallen because the sharps have been betting the Buccaneers aggressively. They did so at +4 and then again at +3.5, causing this spread to plummet to +3.

At +3, the Buccaneers aren’t as appealing as they were at +3.5 and +4, but I still like them at this price. Fading Rodgers is terrifying, but the Buccaneers should be able to win in the trenches and ultimately prevail in this game. That said, getting +3.5 will be important. We can still find +3.5 -120s right now, but I’ll be patient and wait for a better line.

Our Week 20 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Vita Vea apparently looked good in practice, which is a great sign for the Buccaneers’ chances in this game. Meanwhile, weather.com is calling for 32-degree temperatures with light winds, so that’s another bullish indicator for Tampa.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m beginning to worry about the Tampa play. The weather isn’t a concern – Weather.com is currently reporting 28 degrees, light wind, 15-percent chance of snow – but Antonio Brown’s absence could be a killer. The Packers will be able to shut down Mike Evans with Jaire Alexander, so with Brown sidelined, Tom Brady’s options will be limited to Chris Godwin and his tight ends. The sharps have taken notice and bet the Packers at -3. I’m dropping the unit count to two.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I wrote Saturday that there was sharp money on the Packers at -3. There’s been more sharp money on the Buccaneers at +4 and +3.5, and the pros doubled down on their +3.5 bet on Sunday morning. This line has fallen to +3 in most sportsbooks. I still like the Buccaneers, and I’m going to check where the best line is prior to kickoff. That said, because I have props on both the Buccaneers and Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, I’m going to do a moneyline parlay on the Packers and Bills to hedge. If you’re in a similar position, I recommend doing the same. If not, then just ignore the moneyline parlay.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It sucks that Antoine Winfield Jr. is out, but it’s not a huge deal because the Buccaneers are down one defensive back. As mentioned earlier today, the sharps have been betting the Buccaneers heavily at +3.5. You can still find a +3.5 for -115 vig at Bovada. This will remain a two-unit wager.

Buffalo Bills (15-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 54.
Sunday, Jan. 24, 6:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views (one even had 100,000!), so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Sam Darnold and the Sunk Cost Theory

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Top 10 Candidates for Head Coaching Vacancies in 2021

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Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

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If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 is complete! Emmitt and his bastard son, Emmitt Snow Jr., battle the Giant Bear in an attempt to put an end to the pandemic.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Christmas Quarantine. It marks the return of the Most Cowardly Man on the Planet!

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where the Kansas City Chiefs will battle the Buffalo Sabres for the right to play my Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl! Guys, I know my Philadelphia Eagles didn’t make it to the NFC Championship, but I came into some money recently and I was able to hire some hackers to hack into the NFL computers and give my Philadelphia Eagles some free wins so that they’re now headed to the Super Bowl! My Philadelphia Eagles are unstoppable!

Emmitt: Smollett, there are lot of thing wrong with your story. First of old, how do you comed into money when your mama only give you $20 in allowings? Second of old, the Eagle do not belong on the Super Game, so what gonna happen when fan of the Green Day Packer and Tampa Day Pirate gonna hear about these and gonna protest and storm Washington B.C.?

Reilly: Emmitt, don’t worry about protests. The fans of the Fudge Packers and Pirates aren’t going to play a factor in this because I hired 30,000 soldiers to guard my Philadelphia Eagles as they’re allowed to be named as the Super Bowl representitive from the NFC division. This makes everything totally legitimate. But before I explain how I got the money, let’s hear from our award-winning football analyst, who has been invited to the Eagles’ ceremony!

Tara Muller: I love football! Football is so much fun! I can’t believe the Eagles are going to the Super Game! Like wow! I hope Carson Wentz doesn’t sniff my hair awkwardly!

Reilly: Don’t worry about that! Carson was told to only do that in private now. Anyway, you might be wondering how I came into so much money. Well, I don’t even know myself, but all of the funds came right from Tolly! All he wanted in exchange was the code to Doug Pederson’s house alarm. I knew what it was because I’ve spied on Doug Pederson a lot over the years. I was more than willing to hand it over to Tolly once that traitor was fired!

Tollefson: Guys, don’t worry, I didn’t kidnap Doug Pederson to make him cook and clean naked for me. I think there’s something really wrong with men cooking and cleaning, especially naked. No, I kidnapped Doug Pederson and sold him to French sex traders. He’s probably being auctioned off on some ship right now. I then split the money with Reilly, but not really because I kept 80 percent of the profit. Please don’t tell him.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I heard some talk about an auction. An auction is when you bid on items. Because the items are being auctioned off. That’s what makes it an auction. If they weren’t being auctioned off, then it would be a normal sale, and then it would just be called a normal sale and not an auction. But because there’s an auction, it makes it an auction and not a normal sale.

Reilly: Enough, James Whitman! No one cares what you have to say! Anyway, if anyone questions the validity of my Philadelphia Eagles being in the Super Bowl, you’ll be banned! We encourage free speech on this network unless you disagree with me!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by free speech. Normally, speech costs money. People are hired to speak in certain places, after all. But when it’s free, you don’t pay any money for it, which makes it free. That’s what makes free speech free, as opposed to $1 speech or even $50 speech.

Wolfley: DAN, ON MY HOME PLANET, ALL SPEECH COSTS $3, UNLESS YOU TAKE OUT SOME SAUCE AND RUB IT ON YOUR BOYS. IN THAT CASE, YOU GET HALF-PRICED SPEECH.

Reilly: No one cares about your home planet, you idiot. Now, let’s talk Super Bowl. Who will win? My Philadelphia Eagles or the Buffalo Sabres? What do you think, New Daddy? Who will win the Super Bowl?

Cutler: I guess, Packers? I dunno.

Reilly: WHAT!?!?!? NEW DADDY, THAT’S ONE STRIKE! TWO MORE STRIKES AND YOU’RE BANNED EVEN THOUGH YOU’RE MY NEW DADDY AND I LOVE YOU.

Cutler: Oh no, not one strike. Wait, what are we talking about again?

Reilly: WAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!

Station Employee: Excuse me, Mr. Reilly, it’s time for you to accept the Eagles into the Super Bowl. You’re due on stage.

Alyssa Milano: WHHHAAATTTT!?!?!?!?!?!? Ex-ca-use me! Why is it always a man who has to accept these awards!? This is bull-f**king-s**t! Us women are more than capable of accepting awards! In fact, I’m going to call the police if a woman doesn’t accept the Eagles into the Super Bowl! The cops are evil, but do you know what’s even more evil? People who turn everything into sexism by excluding women from everything!!!

Reilly: Oh no! I’m not sexist! Someone please tell Alyssa I’m not sexist. I’d tell her myself, but I’m not allowed to speak to girls yet. I tried to bribe mother to allow me to do so, but she still wouldn’t let me. She said I’m a flower who hasn’t bloomed yet, so girls would just corrupt me!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like we’re talking about sexist people, Kevin. Let’s make a list of sexist people, Kevin. How about Matt Damon, Kevin? Let’s have a chat about Seth McFarlane, Kevin. What about Arnold Schwarzenegger, Kevin? Let’s not forget about Martin Lawrence, Kevin. Don’t leave out Matt LeBlanc, Kevin. Then there’s Alec Baldwin, Kevin. How about Mel Gibson, Kevin? There’s also one other sexist person, Kevin. It’s Kevin Reilly, Kevin!

Reilly: WHAT!? I’M NOT SEXIST! NO, ALYSSA MILANO, DON’T NOD IN AGREEMENT! WAIT, DON’T REMOVE ME FROM ACCEPTING MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES! PLEASE, SOMEONE TAKE MY MONEY! PLEASE! DAMN IT, CHARLES DAVIS, I WILL MURDER YOU IN YOUR SLEEP FOR THIS, AHHHHHH!!! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Let’s begin with the Chiefs because we have no idea if Patrick Mahomes will play. When Mahomes went down against the Bills and couldn’t get up right away, I fear as though he busted his knee. Mahomes, however, jogged into the locker room, though he was ultimately ruled out with a concussion. The Chiefs hung on for dear life, but managed to prevail despite Chad Henne’s horrific interception.

The Chiefs are unlucky that they didn’t play this past Saturday because that would have given Mahomes one extra day to get cleared. There’s still a decent chance he’ll play, however, even if it involves someone slipping an undisclosed sum of money to the independent neurologist. If Mahomes can take the field, he’ll have a nice advantage to exploit with the Bills being lackluster versus tight ends. There’s no defending Travis Kelce anyway, so the Pro Bowl tight end will be in for a big game. Tyreek Hill will make some nice plays as well, though he has a much tougher matchup against the talented Buffalo corners.

My concern for the Chiefs’ offense, save for Mahomes’ health, is the offensive line. If Mitchell Schwartz is sidelined again, Mahomes will be under siege against a fierce Buffalo pass rush, which will limit some of Kansas City’s drives. Conversely, if Schwartz can make his return to action – Andy Reid said last week that the Pro Bowl tackle was making progress – it would really open up the Chiefs’ scoring attack.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Chiefs match up well against the Bills on this side of the ball. Kansas City struggles to stop the run, yet the Bills don’t call any rushing plays. Seriously, all they did was pass versus the Ravens, with Devin Singletary being handled the ball just seven times despite the team holding a lead throughout the second half. Singletary is a better receiver out of the backfield than he is a runner, so it’s not like dramatically changing the style of attack will be fruitful for the Bills.

While the Chiefs are woeful against the run, they’re quite solid versus the pass. They have some talented cornerbacks, while some of their defensive linemen like Chris Jones and Frank Clark can apply ample pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Allen is well protected, but the Kansas City corners can create some problems.

That said, it’s impossible to stop the Bills. Allen should continue to play on a high level, and he simply has too many potent weapons at his disposal for most teams to handle. The Ravens slowed him down, but the Chiefs, while solid versus aerial attacks, are not nearly on Baltimore’s level in that regard.

RECAP: There’s a huge injury question mark in this game. I can’t give a confident pick at the moment because we’ll need some clarity. Will Schwartz play or not? That’s what everyone is wondering, after all.

In all seriousness, will Mahomes play? That’s the big question, and because we can’t answer that at the moment, it’s difficult to make a projection on this game. Schwartz’s availability matters as well, but having knowledge about the Mahomes situation is key. Given that some sharp money came in on the Bills on Tuesday morning, perhaps my thesis of someone in Kansas City’s organization slipping some cash to the neurologist is incorrect.

If Mahomes plays, I like the Chiefs at anything less than -3.5. At -3 or below, the Chiefs are a great bargain with Mahomes under center. This would even become a big bet if Schwartz were available, too. Conversely, if Henne is given the nod, I’ll be betting the Bills. I like wagering on good or great teams missing their starting quarterback, but not during the playoffs, especially against elite opponents like the Bills.

I’m going to pencil in the Chiefs for now, but stay tuned for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacob had a great strategy on our podcast. He’s betting the Bills +3 because Buffalo will be favored if Mahomes is sidelined, while this line won’t go up too much if Mahomes is confirmed to play. If Mahomes is cleared from his concussion, you can bet the Kansas City moneyline to get a middle. So, the question is, will Mahomes play? Well, from all accounts, Mahomes will play. It would be shocking at this point if he didn’t. The line is rising in sportsbooks, especially sharp ones. So, I’m going to lock in -3 -115 at Bovada for two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad we locked in this pick on Thursday! Patrick Mahomes was cleared to play and has no injury designation. This line is now either -3 -125 or -3.5, depending on the sportsbook. I still like the Chiefs for two units because they’re missing multiple offensive linemen, and Mahomes still might be banged up, but we’re getting some nice line value with the host.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: So much for being glad about locking in this pick! The sharps pounced on the Bills at +3.5, and they’re even betting them at +3. It seems as though Patrick Mahomes’ toe injury is going to be a huge problem. I’m stuck with a two-unit pick on the Chiefs, but given the Mahomes news, I wouldn’t bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jay Glazer reported that Patrick Mahomes has been fitted with a special orthotic for this game, and that the Chiefs are “very concerned” about it. This is not what I wanted to see after locking in the Chiefs for two units. I wouldn’t bet this game after seeing this report. The sharps are doing so, wagering on the Bills. If you still like the Chiefs, the best line I see is -3 -103 at Bookmaker.