NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LIII

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$530)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$480)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,515)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$710)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,245)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$955)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2018): 7-8 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2018): 7-9 (-$630)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2018): 11-5 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$1,225)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2018): 6-8-2 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2018): 9-6-1 (+$790)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2018): 4-0 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2018): 1-3 (-$1,425)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2018): 0-2 (-$140)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2018): 0-1 (-$1,130)
NFL Preseason Betting Props: (+$1,720)

NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Feb. 3, 2:00 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

New England Patriots (13-5) at Los Angeles Rams (14-3)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 56.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -1.
Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Rams.

WEEK 20 RECAP: I’d like to complain about what happened before, but I said it on last week’s podcast, where Kenny and I recapped Week 20 and discussed changes the NFL needs to make.

I lost both picks because of the bogus non-call on the pass interference in the Saints-Rams game, and then a five-unit pick went down in flames because Dee Ford lined up an inch offsides. What a bummer. Fortunately, I was able to hit a moneyline parlay between the Patriots and Rams, which I took to hedge against futures bets I made.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

There’s no Vegas update, as there were no publicly backed sides last week. But as you can tell below, everyone and their evil stepmother is betting the Patriots.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here, including:

I apologize for not posting a Vegas update for the Super Bowl. I’ve been concentrating on my NBA Picks during the week off. We’re up 36 units in the NBA this season, so I hope you’ve been able to profit along with me.

Also, Chet has been posting NBA Draft Kings Picks. Using his picks, I was able to take down a $10,000 tournament:

If you don’t play Draft Kings, definitely sign up and use promo code WALTERFOOTBALL.

At any rate, here are more hate mails with similar dumb ideas:

And…

God, these people are stupid. But at least they don’t lie like this guy:

Yeah, this guy won “a lot.” I’m sure he has hoards of Monopoly money from all of the fake bets he made.

And here, we keep with the trend of someone saying something dumb without doing any research:

And last but not least, something that made me laugh:

RAMS FANS!!!! BUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAA!!! Oh man, can you believe that this guy is pretending that anyone actually likes the Rams? Holy hell, what a hilarious concept.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

If you missed it, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Reader’s Heavy Criticism of Josh Rosen

Reader on What to Do with Marcus Mariota

Reader’s 2014 NFL Re-Draft

The Trevor Lawrence Era

Detroit Lions Cap Overhaul

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

Unimaginative Mock Draft

Kkunert327 Mock Draft

Tyler Overton Mock Draft

Heemy23 Mock Draft

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is complete! In Episode 16, will Emmitt defeat the evil statue group, Statue-13? Can Emmitt and friends unmask who Statue-13’s leader is?

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about how someone hit on me at the gym.

This week on CBS, we’re going to have Jim Nantz and Tony Romo calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the 53rd-annual Super Bowl, but more importantly, welcome to the 93rd-annual Blemmy Awards! I’m your host, Kevin Reilly, and I’m also the recipient of the Blemmy Award for the best sports broadcaster of the year! We’ll be talking about the Blemmy’s more than the Super Bowl because no one cares about the Super Bowl since my Philadelphia Eagles aren’t alive in this reality, though I’m sure they’ve already won the Super Bowl in lots of other realities because my Philadelphia Eagles are the best team of all time. But without further ado, let’s get on with the Blemmy’s Award ceremony. I’m pleased to present the man who will give me away at this awards ceremony, the man I trust the most on my broadcasting team other than Charles Davis, but he has another part in the award ceremony, so he can’t give me away. May I please present to you, Emmitt! And before I let Emmitt speak, I have to end my final sentence with my name so he finally addresses me by my real name. My name is Kevin.

Emmitt: Uhh… guy who name I forgetted, it pleased me to gived you away this holiday season. Some say the magical holiday of Chrispmas about gettin’ present and throw gum in Santa trash can when he ring the bell, but I think it all about giving, which remind me of my favorite holiday, Thankgiving, where the leprechauns and Indians gived each other Chrispmas present of turkey and mash potato. So I gived this guy who name I forgetted turkey and mash potato for him’s birthday party.

Reilly: Thanks, Emmitt, but this isn’t my birthday party. It’s the Blemmy’s, and I won the award for the best announcer! Now, before I begin my speech, let’s go to our sideline reporter, Kareem Hunt, who is on the red carpet. Kareem, who do you see there, and what are they wearing?

Kareem Hunt: Kevin, let’s just say that whatever the women were wearing is no longer with them anymore. I’ve made sure that they are no longer clothed, and also no longer conscious, if you catch my drift.

Reilly: Let’s avoid the talk about women, Kareem. Mother is here and I’m not allowed to talk about women because I’m too young and they are evil, according to Mother. At any rate, time to begin my speech. Hem, hem…

Tollefson: Hey Kevin, before you begin, let me just say that you won fair and square. And because you won, I won’t kidnap your mother and force her to cook and clean naked for me.

Reilly: Thanks, Tolly, that’s nice of you to say. Anyway, let me begin my speech. Oh, it’s such an honor to win the Blemmy for the best announcer in the world! I’ve been working at this job for years, and it’s great to finally be recognized for the best announcer. I can’t tell you how long…

Mother: Kevin, Poopykins, you’re slouching! Stand up straight!

Reilly: OK, Mother! I can’t tell you how long I’ve been waiting for this moment. I’m really happy I won the aw…

Mother: Kevin, Poopykins, it’s “very” happy. Not “really” happy. Don’t you remember our grammar lessons in our home-school lesson two weeks ago? I explained the difference between really and very to you, and then you had to go poopie, and I made sure to wipe your butt clean!

Reilly: Mother, you’re embarrassing me in front of all my friends!

Mother: Kevin, do you want your macaroni and cheese tonight, or not? If so, start using proper grammar!

Fouts: And here’s what she means by proper grammar. There’s grammar, which, by definition, is the system and structure of a language. So, if you put proper in front of it, you have a system and structure of a language that’s correct. But if you have improper grammar, and keep in mind that improper is the opposite of proper, you have a system and structure of a language that’s uncorrect. See what I did there? I used the word “uncorrect” because it was unproper grammar. See, I did it again! Unproper was uncorrect. Whoa-ho! Three-for-three! Uncorrect was also a real example of improper grammar. Three-for-three, I’m on fire! But not the literal fire. I mean the figurative fire!

Wolfley: DAN, IT’S A GOOD THING YOU CLARIFIED THIS BECAUSE I WAS ABOUT TO PULL OUT THE EMERGENCY FIRE EXTINGUISHER I CARRY ON MY PERSON AT ALL TIMES TO BLOW OUT THE FIRE. I DIDN’T SEE A FIRE, BUT INVISIBLE FIRE IS A REAL EPIDEMIC.

Reilly: Guys, please don’t interrupt my speech. I’m just getting to the good part. Because there’s someone I need to thank the most, and no, it’s not Mother. It’s my New Daddy…

Cutler: Huh? Sorry, just woke up. What is this awards show? Is it the Oscars?

Reilly: No, Former New Daddy. We did this last time. Don’t you remember? You’re not New Daddy anymore even though you’re still married to Mother!

Cutler: I got married? Oh man, when did all of this happen? Oh wait, I just forgot that I don’t really care.

Reilly: See, this is exactly why you’re Former New Daddy. My New Daddy is Charles Davis! And as winner of the Blemmy’s, I’m able to award New New Daddy Charles Davis as the executor of my Blemmy Award, so if something bad happens to me, like if I get kidnapped by women, Charles Davis will be asked to take care of the Blemmy Trophy for me.

Charles Davis: Kevin, I’m so happy you acknowledged me as the executor, Kevin, for my plan has finally unfolded, Kevin. As the executor of your Blemmy Award, Kevin, I have taken full possession of your Nick Foles bobble heads and posters, Kevin. I have also commandeered your Carson Wentz toys, Kevin. Let’s discuss what other toys of yours I confiscated, Kevin. How about Fletcher Cox posters and bobble heads, Kevin? Let’s talk about the Brian Dawkins posters and bobble heads I now have in your possession, Kevin. Why not chat about the Brian Westbrook posters and bobble heads I now own, Kevin? What about the Randall Cunningham posters and bobble heads now in my possession, Kevin? How about you name an Eagles player, Kevin, and take a guess as to whether or not I own those posters and bobble heads, Kevin? Take three guesses, Kevin? Actually, Kevin, if you name any player, Kevin, I have taken those posters and bobble heads, Kevin!

Reilly: W-W-W-W-W-W-WHAT!?!?!?

Charles Davis: It was all part of my plan, Kevin. I haven’t forgotten all the times you tried to have me killed, Kevin. So, I concocted this plan, Kevin. It was to be nice to you, Kevin, and to save you from fake, dire situations, Kevin, to earn your trust, Kevin, so that you would proclaim me to be your new daddy, Kevin, and then you would surely make me executor of your Blemmy, Kevin, which means I have all rights to any player posters and bobble heads you own, Kevin. Do you know why that is, Kevin? I’ll give you three guesses, Kevin. Oh, you guessed pepperoni pizza, Kevin? Wrong again, Kevin! It’s because I won a Draft Kings tournament using promo code WalterFootball, Kevin, and I used the money to buy the Blemmy’s Foundation, Kevin, then I had lawyers change the language of the contract, Kevin, which gives the executor of the winner all rights to anything they want of the winner, Kevin. Then, Kevin, I had the Blemmy’s give you the award for best announcer, Kevin, even though you’re really the world’s worst announcer, Kevin. How bout them apples, Kevin!?

Reilly: WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!! MOTHER, PLEASE GET MY POSTERS AND BOBBLE HEADS BACK FOR ME, WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Mother: That’s it, Poopykins! You’re slouching again, so no macaroni and cheese for you tonight! Only cabbage and toast!

Reilly: WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

Herm: NOT SO FAST! NOT SO QUICKLY! NOT SO HASTILY! NOT SO SPEEDY! NOT SO SLOWLY! I MEAN, NOT SLOWLY! SLOWLY IS THE OPPOSITE OF FAST! FAST IS THE OPPOSITE OF SLOW! HERM DIDN’T MEAN TO SAY SLOWLY! ONLY IF THERE WAS A NOT IN FRONT OF SLOWLY! NOT SO NOT SLOWLY! HA! HERM DID IT! BUT HERM DIGRESSES! HERM WAS TRAPPED IN A WAREHOUSE FOR WEEKS! AND GUESS WHO PUT HIM THERE!? CHARLES DAVIS! BUT THANKS TO THE HELP OF A FRIEND, I ESCAPED! NOW, MY FRIEND HERE GAVE ME A TIME MACHINE SO I CAN GO BACK AND UNDO ALL THE COLD DAYS I SPENT TRAPPED IN THE COLD WAREHOUSE, THANKS TO CHARLES DAVIS! YOU TELL THEM, FRIEND!

Matt Millen: It’s true. I made that warehouse my home, and I’ve been using the time machine to rewind nights so I may pleasure my 100-percent USDA Men with kielbasas up the backside over and over again. Now, I know it’s time. Herm, I relinquish this time machine to you.

Charles Davis: No, Herm! Don’t do it, Herm! I’ll make it worth your while, Herm! How about a Nick Foles bobble head, Herm!? How about a Carson Wentz poster, Herm!? How about a Brian Dawkins blow-up doll with lots of white liquid on it, Herm!? These are good prizes for taking the bullet so that I could befriend Kevin, Herm!

Herm: NOT BUYING IT! NOT GOING FOR IT! NOT BUYING WHAT YOU’RE SELLING! NOT GOING TO TAKE THE BAIT! NOT SELLING WHAT YOU’RE BUYING! WAIT, THAT’S IN REVERSE ORDER! BUT HERM DOESN’T CARE! BECAUSE HERM’S GOING TO HIT THE BUTTON AND REVERSE TIME! CLICK! Umm… uhh…

Charles Davis: No, Herm, no! Kevin, I’ll get you next time, Keviiiiinnnnnnnn…

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I’d say it’s amazing that Tom Brady is making his ninth Super Bowl appearance, but he certainly had some help two weeks ago. Between a bogus roughing-the-passer call, Justin Houston lining up an inch offsides on a play that appeared to end the game in Kansas City’s favor, and a friendly coin toss, the Patriots were able to prevail over the Chiefs even though they are the inferior team overall. Now, they’ll be tasked with “upsetting” a superior team once again.

The Patriots have some matchups to exploit on this side of the ball. The Rams struggle to defend the run on the edge, so I imagine this is an area Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will attack. Los Angeles also happens to be soft to pass-catching running backs. Alvin Kamara had a huge game as a receiver in the NFC Championship. I could see James White hauling in double-digit receptions. If he manages to score twice, he could be the game’s MVP.

That said, the Rams have the formula to beat the Patriots. Excluding last year’s shootout, Brady has fallen in the Super Bowl twice to the Giants because of all the pressure New York was able to generate without blitzing. Los Angeles’ front is one of the best in the business, as Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh should be able to pressure Brady up the middle. Quarterbacks, especially immobile ones, absolutely loathe interior pressure, so I could see both Donald and Suh racking up multiple sacks and forcing some hurried throws.

Furthermore, the Rams don’t play a zone. This is key, as Brady loves to attack zones. The Rams will play press coverage and take away Brady’s options. No one in New England’s receiving corps can get open reliably, aside from Julian Edelman, so Brady’s options will be limited.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Patriots had a tall order in shutting down the Chiefs two weeks ago. However, they were able to limit Kansas City to just three first downs in the opening half by putting lots of heat on Patrick Mahomes. I’m not sure where this came from, as New England’s adjusted sack rate was the third-worst in the NFL entering the playoffs.

The big question is whether or not the Patriots can pressure Jared Goff just as frequently, and I’m going to lean toward saying no. I’m still not a believer in New England’s pass rush, but that’s half my reasoning. The other half would be Los Angeles’ offensive line. The Rams have one of the top blocking units in the NFL. The Rams have surrendered the eighth-fewest sacks in 2018, and their adjusted sack ranking is even better than that. The Rams are better at almost every position up front compared to the Chiefs, except for maybe center. They’ll keep Jared Goff protected well.

The offensive line will also open up huge running lanes for Todd Gurley. And yes, Gurley; not C.J. Anderson. I fully expect Gurley to be over the injury that plagued him in the NFC Championship, as he’s had two weeks off. Gurley should have a big game against a defense ranked 19th versus the run in the regular season.

Goff, meanwhile, should be able to feed off Gurley’s great running with some play-action opportunities. I’m not a big Goff fan, but Sean McVay is an incredible coach who puts his quarterback in the best situation possible. McVay should be able to scheme well despite Belichick being on the other sideline. I imagine Belichick will want to erase Brandin Cooks, which should Goff some nice opportunities to throw to Robert Woods as well as Gurley out of the backfield.

RECAP: So, can the Patriots do it? Can they pull the upset? They’re underdogs again, and… wait. Wait a second. The Patriots are favored. I almost forgot!

The Rams have been regarded as the better team all year. They’re from the superior conference. DVOA numbers say the Rams should be 2.5-point favorites. They have the better roster overall. And yet, they’re underdogs against the Patriots on a neutral field. How does that make any sense?

This reminds me a lot of the Panthers-Broncos Super Bowl from the 2015 NFL season. The Broncos had the better roster, save for quarterback. Peyton Manning was at the helm for Denver, but that team won in spite of him. He was old and decrepit at that stage of his career, while Cam Newton was the MVP. He was unstoppable. He thrashed the Seahawks in the divisional round of the playoffs, then torched the very talented Cardinals in the NFC Championship. Everyone assumed that the Panthers were going to demolish the Broncos. The public heavily backed the favored Panthers. Sixty-eight of the betting action was on Carolina. Does any of this sound familiar?

The public betting action is even more lopsided in this contest. About 80 percent of the money is coming in on the Patriots, which is absurd. The sportsbooks are going to lose their shirts if New England covers this spread. It’ll be a blood bath, and there will be bodies buried in the Nevada desert if the Patriots come through. If the sportsbooks were concerned about New England covering, they would have made this line higher than -3 to get some action on the Rams. It’s almost like they know something the public doesn’t.

What they know is that like the Broncos in 2015, the Rams are the better team. Yes, they have the inferior quarterback, much like that Denver team did, but football is a team game that’s about more than just quarterback play. Did the Giants have the quarterback edge when they defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl twice? No! Eli Manning isn’t even in the same stratosphere as Brady, yet the Giants won both games because they had the superior roster, and their defensive line was able to punish Brady with tons of pressure. Likewise, the Rams have the superior roster and will be able to harass Brady all evening.

Just to hammer home my point about quarterbacks not mattering as much in the Super Bowl as the public would like to believe, here’s a chart of how the supposed superior signal-callers have fared in the “big game” since 2000:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2016 – (Tom Brady and MVP winner Matt Ryan considered even)
2017 – (Tom Brady over Nick Foles: Loss SU, Loss ATS)

5-10 SU, 3-12 ATS

So, having the superior quarterback clearly doesn’t mean that much, and thus, the Rams being able to match up well against the Patriots and having the tools to beat Brady is more significant.

We’ve also established that this point spread is incorrect. This should be a pick ’em at the very least, but the Rams should probably be favored. But what about the motivational edge? I believe that belongs to the Rams as well. The Patriots were able to feed off the energy of being an underdog in the AFC Championship, but now they’re favored, and everyone expects them to win. Meanwhile, no one is giving the Rams a chance. Again, about 80 percent of the money is coming in on the Patriots. Plus, the consensus is that the Rams shouldn’t even be in this game. That’s probably correct, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Rams have been hearing about this for a week-and-a-half now. They have a big chip on their shoulder, and they’ll be looking to prove everyone wrong.

The Rams are the right side. And as I type that, I know there are going to be some idiots in the comment section saying “HURR DURR YOU SHOULDNT’ BET AGENST TEH PATRIETS LOLZ” but if you have that mentality, you must consider these facts: Brady and Belichick are a mediocre 19-18 against the spread in the playoffs, and they’re also 3-5 against the spread in the Super Bowl. Even worse, they’re 2-5 against the spread in the Super Bowl if favored, and they would be 1-6 ATS in that regard had the Seahawks just given Marshawn Lynch the ball at the goal line. Tell me, are the Patriots an automatic bet if they’re 2-5/1-6 ATS in a situation like this? If you’re thinking about writing something like this in the comment section below, please be a smarter person. Even if the Patriots win and cover, it’s not going to be because “you shouldent be bettoring agranst bradey and bleleichick hahaha.” That’s been disproved already.

I don’t think the Patriots win and cover, obviously. I love the Rams in this game. They have the motivational and spread angles covered, and they also have the matchup formula to take down Brady. The only question is how many units I’ll be wagering on them. I’ve been going back and forth between three and four, so I’ve decided to just stop being a p***y. This is a four-unit play.

One more thing before I get to the props: If you bet the Rams, you MUST MUST MUST MUST MUST MUST MUST MUST MUST MUST get +3. New England by three is a very likely result, so you want to be covered from that angle. Luckily, Los Angeles +3 -120 is available at Bovada. I’m going to lock that in now. If we get a +3 with better juice later in the week, so be it, but I don’t risk losing the +3.

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time 10 years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona moneyline. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There was nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence.

Here are some props I like:

1. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No +120 (5Dimes/Bovada): Believe it or not, both participants have made a field goal of 33-plus in only 13 of the 52 Super Bowls.

2. New England wins by 1-6 points +350 (Bovada); Los Angeles wins by 1-6 points +460 (5Dimes): I like this scheme because there’s a good chance we’ll get one of these two right. Most of the recent Super Bowls have been close, and the Patriots’ victories in their big games have been by 3, 3, 3, 4 and 6.

3. Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT -0.5 -140 (5Dimes): In the previous 32 Super Bowls, the second half is 21-10-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we’re getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at just -140.

4. MVPs: Todd Gurley – 13.5:1; Aaron Donald – 18.5:1; James White – 25:1 (all 5Dimes): Outside of the two quarterbacks, I believe these three players stand the best chance of winning MVP. Gurley will be much healthier after some time off. Donald will dominate the interior and could collect several sacks. White, meanwhile, has a good chance to catch double-digit passes. All of these odds are available at 5Dimes, which has the best futures odds.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still a ton of money coming in on the Patriots. This line hasn’t budged though, and you can still get +3 -120 at Bovada. I have no regrets about locking that in.

By the way, Kenny discussed a ton of props he likes in our Super Bowl picks podcast, which you can watch here:

One of the props Kenny took was a Rams alternative line of +7.5 -257. I told him I’d do the math to see if this was a good bet. So, in order to break even on -257 bets, you need to hit 72 percent of your wagers (257/357). The marginal difference of Rams +2.5 (the -110 line) and +7.5 is .2105 (you’re giving yourself a 21.05-percent better chance of hitting +7.5 than +2.5), which means that Kenny is 71.05-percent likely to hit his bet (50% + 21.05%). However, he needed to get to 72 percent as his break-even point, so he’s getting ripped off by 0.95 percent.

That said, Rams +2.5 requires a 52.4-percent success rate at -110 juice (110/210). Bettors get ripped off by 2.4 percent on regular -110 bets – there’s a reason sportsbooks don’t go out of business – so Kenny is actually getting a better deal than those picking +2.5 -110.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: My pick hasn’t changed, but I have a few things to say. First, the sharp money is finally starting to come in, and it’s on the Rams. The two sharpest books available, Pinnacle and CRIS, have moved their lines toward the Rams. The Patriots are now -2.5 -101 at Pinnacle, while CRIS has moved to New England -2. The other books may follow suit, save for the very square ones. Speaking of square books, Bovada STILL has +3 -120 available. Second, I made a boo-boo below in my prop bets, indicating that the Eagles would win 1-6 points. I’m sure you’ve all figured out that “Philadelphia” should have been Los Angeles. Third, I hope you join me in reading my 13th-annual Live Super Bowl Blog, which will be updated live during the Super Bowl.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp action on the Rams. There’s more sharp action on the under, for what it’s worth. The public, meanwhile, likes the Patriots. Despite this, the line has dropped to +2 at Pinnacle, CRIS and BetUS. You can still get +3 at Bovada, but for -125 juice. If you like the Rams, bet that, as it’s worth betting up to three because that’s the most likely margin of victory.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

Everyone believes the Patriots will win. People seem to agree that the Rams shouldn’t even be in the Super Bowl because of the pass interference fiasco.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Everyone is betting the Patriots like this game has already been decided.

Percentage of money on New England: 68% (173,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 235-73 as a starter (175-119 ATS).

Tom Brady is 28-9 in the playoffs (19-18 ATS).

Tom Brady is 13-6 ATS in domes.

Tom Brady is 12-5 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 3 points.

Bill Belichick is 19-10 ATS with extra time to prepare.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 58.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 20 NFL Pick: Rams 27, Patriots 24
Rams +3 -120 (4 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$480
Under 57 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 13, Rams 3

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No +120 (2 Units) – 5Dimes/Bovada — Incorrect; -$200

New England wins by 1-6 points +350 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$200

Los Angeles wins by 1-6 points +460 (2 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$200

Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT -0.5 -145 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$100

MVP: Todd Gurley – 13.5:1 (0.5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$50

MVP: Aaron Donald – 18.5:1 (0.5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$50

MVP: James White – 25:1 (0.5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)