NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)

NFL Picks (2014): 59-57-6 (-$935)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 27, 5:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games

Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (5-1)
Line: Cardinals by 1. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -3.5.
Sunday, Oct. 26, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 429 remained last week. The survivor page will be updated soon.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The focus by the media entering this game is that the Eagles are getting healthier. Center Jason Kelce has a chance to be back this week, while All-Pro guard Evan Mathis will return soon as well. However, the best formerly injured player who is expected to be available for this game is Arizona’s Calais Campbell.

Campbell is the arguably the best 3-4 defensive end in the NFL not named J.J. Watt. His presence on the field is absolutely huge for the Cardinals, who will be able to control the line of scrimmage if he’s on the field. With Mathis still out and Kelce perhaps missing (or not at 100 percent), Arizona should be able to put tons of pressure on Nick Foles, whom it shut down in the second half of last year’s matchup in Philadelphia.

The Cardinals will also put the clamps on LeSean McCoy, who had a huge outing against the lethargic Giants prior to the bye. Those expecting that to be a sign of things to come could be greatly disappointed, as the Cardinals are second versus the run. They haven’t surrendered more than 86 rushing yards to any opponent, so the Eagles could have issues meeting that mark, especially if Darren Sproles is out or limited with his MCL sprain.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Eagles have been better defensively, but they have their issues on that side of the ball. The most obvious one is the cornerback situation, as both Bradley Fletcher and the tired Cary Williams have struggled this year. Brandon Boykin has been great in the slot, and he should give Larry Fitzgerald some problems there, but Carson Palmer could have plenty of success torching Philadelphia’s other corners.

The Eagles will have to pressure Palmer to prevent that from happening. Their pass rush has been pretty potent, as it’s tied for eighth with 19 sacks on the year. However, the Cardinals protect their quarterbacks well, yielding just five sacks in their previous four games. Something has to give.

What Philadelphia will definitely do is contain the run. The team is 11th against rushing attacks (3.86 YPC), most recently shutting down whatever the Giants were trying to do on the ground. Andre Ellington won’t have much running room, but he’ll be a big factor as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

RECAP: The public is pounding the Eagles, as usual. I like the Cardinals. They play so well at home as underdogs or short favorites, while the Eagles will be overconfident, as they’ve had two weeks to hear about how great they are at 5-1, especially following that blowout victory against the Giants.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is betting Philadelphia, but the sharps haven’t gotten involved. I still like the Cardinals, and perhaps you will too after seeing this betting trend: Teams allowing three or fewer points prior to their bye are 3-15 against the spread over the past 20 years.

SUNDAY NOTES: The pros bet the Eagles down along with the public. I don’t get it; these teams are even, while Arizona has a great homefield advantage.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

The Eagles are predictably a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 23-10 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Cardinals 26, Eagles 20
Cardinals -1 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 24, Eagles 20

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
Line: Colts by 3.5. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -4.
Sunday, Oct. 26, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Emmitt confronts the leader of the Bloods – none other than Ron Jaworski – to recover the Crips’ Justin Bieber music videos.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The argument is being made for Andrew Luck to be the MVP, and it’s difficult to go against it. Luck is playing the best football of his career, and he’ll get a chance to pad his stats in this contest.

The Steelers don’t have much of a chance to contain Luck. They have a severely lacking pass rush that has only four sacks in the past four weeks. You beat the great quarterbacks by putting heavy pressure on them without blitzing very much, and Pittsburgh cannot come close to doing that. Luck will be able to pick apart the Steelers’ struggling secondary quite easily.

Pittsburgh hasn’t had much success containing the run either, surrendering more than 270 rushing yards to its previous two opponents. We all just saw Arian Foster run all over the Steelers, so Ahmad Bradshaw figures to have similar success, as the Steelers will be too focused on putting the clamps on Luck to worry about Bradshaw coming out of the backfield.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Not enough is being made out of the strides that the Colts’ defense has made this year. Remember back in Week 2 when they couldn’t get off the field against the Eagles? They’ve made tremendous improvements since. They are now second in defensive efficiency and are tied for the third-most sacks in the NFL with 21.

Who’s generating this pressure? Well, Bjoern Werner is finally performing like a first-round pick, while Cory Redding has been playing out of his mind. Their ability to swarm opposing passers – and they’ll get to Ben Roethlisberger, who isn’t protected very well – has allowed the secondary to thrive. It’s been nearly impossible to throw on Vontae Davis, who could take away Roethlisberger’s only downfield weapon. If Antonio Brown isn’t open very much, Roethlisberger will struggle to move the chains.

The Steelers may not be able to run the ball very well either. Three of Indianapolis’ previous five opponents have been limited to just 45 rushing yards or fewer. Le’Veon Bell is a talented back who should be able to eclipse that 45-yard figure by himself, but there won’t be as many holes for him to burst through.

RECAP: The Colts should be the right side because they’re so much better than the Steelers. However, they’re not in a particularly good spot, and there’s just so much action on them. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this game landed on three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Steelers have secondary issues, but their opponents haven’t been able to take advantage. The previous four quarterbacks they’ve faced have been Mike Glennon, Blake Bortles, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Andrew Luck will dominate. The public agrees, as casual bettors are playing the Colts like it’s a guaranteed victory. The sharps haven’t taken Pittsburgh though. The sportsbooks set this spread way too low. I think they goofed.

SUNDAY NOTES: Everyone is betting the Colts. Vegas likely set a bad number.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Despite Monday’s win, no one is betting on Pittsburgh.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 89% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Ben Roethlisberger is 5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Colts 30, Steelers 24
Colts -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 51, Colts 34

Oakland Raiders (0-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-3)
Line: Browns by 6.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Browns -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -7.
Sunday, Oct. 26, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Browns.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is My Quest for a Lasagna Pan.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: I’ve discussed why the Browns were overrated in recent weeks. Their defense has been pedestrian, as it now ranks 20th in efficiency. They’re particularly brutal against the run, ranking 29th against it in terms of YPC (4.82). Denard Robinson ran all over them, so perhaps Darren McFadden can have similar success.

The Raiders have been pretty inconsistent this year offensively. They moved the chains well against the Chargers, but failed to do anything versus Arizona, as Derek Carr’s short passes were ineffective, while his receivers dropped most of the long ones. If they don’t let Carr’s attempts slip through their fingers, the Raiders may actually move the chains. Cleveland can’t really stop the pass either, as Joe Haden has been a huge disappointment this year.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Mike Pettine discussed the possibility of benching Brian Hoyer during last week’s loss. I’m glad he opted not to, as Hoyer had played well beforehand. One bad game shouldn’t warrant any sort of removal. If, however, Hoyer struggles against the lowly Raiders, it might be time for Johnny Manziel.

Hoyer was atrocious versus the Jaguars. Sure, he saw lots of pressure in his face, but he had open receivers he missed all afternoon, including some for potential scores. There won’t be any excuse for struggling against Oakland, a team that has the second-fewest sacks in the NFL (6). The Raiders, as a consequence, are 28th against the pass (7.99 YPA).

Oakland isn’t much better in terms of stopping the run, surrendering 100-plus rushing yards to its previous three opponents. Part of the reason Hoyer struggled so much last week was because the Browns weren’t able to establish their rushing attack. The Jaguars, ninth against the run, weren’t going to allow that to happen. The Raiders won’t have as much of a say in it.

RECAP: If the Raiders weren’t so poisonous, I’d take them for a unit or two. They’re in a great spot, as A) the Browns aren’t a good team and should not be laying a touchdown, and B) winless teams on the road are generally good bets. However, I just don’t trust Carr or the Raiders in general. Good luck to you if you do.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are playing the Raiders. I can’t bring myself to do that.

SUNDAY NOTES: There are many games this week in which the public and sharps are on the same side. This is one of them, though this contest is receiving a much lower volume of bets.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 51% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Raiders are 18-28 ATS in October since 2001.

Browns are 8-14 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Browns -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Browns 21, Raiders 17
Raiders +6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 23, Raiders 13

Green Bay Packers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)
Line: Saints by 1. Total: 54.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.
Sunday, Oct. 26, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees has looked off this year. I thought the bye week might fix things for him, but that apparently was not the case. Brees put together some solid drives at Detroit, but ultimately cost his team with a horrific fourth quarter, capped off by a back-breaking interception and uncharacteristic time management during the final drive.

Then again, Brees was battling the NFL’s top defense and had Jimmy Graham available only as a decoy. Graham will be a bigger part of the offense this week, which will definitely help. Having easier competition will also be a great relief. The Packers have improved defensively, but it’s difficult to tell how much because they’ve feasted on pedestrian competition lately. The Dolphins moved the chains on them two weeks ago, and New Orleans should enjoy similar success.

Unfortunately, it’s not all optimistic for the Saints, as they lost Pierre Thomas to an injury last week. Thomas will be out, so Brees will have to lean on Travaris Cadet as his pass-catching running back. Cadet did a good job as a receiver last week, but wasn’t nearly as effective in protection. That could hurt the Saints, as the Packers’ pass rush has performed better recently.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I was also wondering if the Saints’ defense would improve after the bye. The unit was ranked in the top 10 last season, so it made little sense that it got so much worse this year. The verdict? While New Orleans won’t be sporting a top-10 defense anytime soon, the team definitely improved on this side of the ball, if last week’s contest is any indication.

The Saints were solid against the run versus Detroit, containing Joique Bell pretty effectively, as Curtis Lofton had his best game of the year. Perhaps that will continue against the Packers. Stopping Eddie Lacy might be a bit more challenging, but it won’t be overly difficult, considering that the big back has averaged just four yards per carry this year.

Of course, preventing Aaron Rodgers from whipping the ball up and down the field will be next to impossible. The Saints’ secondary did not show signs of improvement last week, so Rodgers figures to have yet another ridiculous performance.

RECAP: This is my October NFL Pick of the Month. I absolutely love the Saints. Here are all of the reasons:

1. This is a much more important game for the Saints. They can’t afford to drop to 2-5. They’ll be fighting for their lives, while the Packers, sitting pretty at 5-2, have bigger fish to fry in the future.

2. The Saints are just so good as hosts. They’re 34-14 against the spread as home favorites since 2007, and they’re even better at night, owning a 12-3 ATS record in the Superdome during the Brees era. The Packers, meanwhile, just aren’t the same team on the road. They lost at Detroit, and they needed a miracle score from Rodgers to win in Miami, and the Dolphins don’t even have a good homefield advantage.

3. I love getting Brees off a loss. He’s 28-17 ATS off a defeat, but the numbers get better if you break them down. He’s an amazing 15-3 ATS at home following a road loss since 2007.

4. I mentioned that the Perfect Game Rule applies to the Packers. Go back to the other page to read it. Green Bay will be overconfident.

5. The public is too fascinated with records, so all of the squares believe the Packers are much better than the Saints because they’re 5-2 instead of 2-4. Green Bay has just had better luck. New Orleans was literally one play away from beating the Falcons, Browns and Lions. If they were 5-1 right now, no one would be talking about them being a bad team. It’s crazy how homoclitic fans are so obsessed with records. All I have to say is, thank God for Bill Parcells saying that horribly untrue quote, “you are what your record is.” No successful bettor or sportsbook maker in the history of this planet has agreed with that.

6. Speaking of bettors, the Packers are receiving more action than any other team this week. The public is pounding Green Bay at an 85-percent clip, and you can bet the wagers will be pouring in Sunday night, as people try to double up on their wins or offset their losses.

7. The sharps, meanwhile, are on the Saints. They actually drove this spread up from pick to -2 as soon as the line came out. That’s how much they love this game. They’re well aware that the record-obsessed public is underrating New Orleans.

Again, this is my October NFL Pick of the Month, and I’m going with seven units on the Saints. Best of luck to everyone betting on them with me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Saints. I’ve discussed how underrated they are; they’re fifth in yardage differential in the NFL (+380), and they could easily be 6-1. The Packers, meanwhile, have been outgained this season (-261). This is a must-win for New Orleans, and the sharps apparently agree. The pros are pounding the Saints. The line has moved to -2.5 in most places, but it’s still available at -1 on Bovada. I’d lock that in if possible.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread is Saints -2 almost everywhere, but available at -1 at Bovada. I still love the Saints. Nothing has changed. The sharps have mostly bet New Orleans, while the public has pounded Green Bay. It’s a shame the Colts didn’t cover though; otherwise, the sportsbooks would really need New Orleans.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

This game doesn’t mean nearly as much to the Packers as it does to the Saints, who can’t drop to 2-5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

There will be more money on the Packers this week than any other team, except for the Colts.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 75% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Aaron Rodgers is 51-30 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 24-17 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 10-9 ATS as an underdog.

Saints are 34-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 12-3 ATS in night home games in the Drew Brees era.

Drew Brees is 36-26 ATS as an underdog. ???

Saints are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog with Drew Brees. ???

Drew Brees is 28-17 ATS after a loss with the Saints (8-4 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Saints -1.

Opening Total: 54.5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Packers 27
Saints -1 (7 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Over 54.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 44, Packers 23

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1)
Line: Cowboys by 10.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -8.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -11.5.
Monday, Oct. 27, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Texas, where the horrible Cowboys are taking on the less horrible Redskins. Guys, I hate the Redskins and all of the grief they’ve caused for the people from India, but the Cowboys are a disgrace. They are a complete joke, and they are one of the worst teams I’ve ever seen. Their fans are terrible, and I hit five of them with a lead pipe on the street today. I dragged them into my truck and buried them in the desert, where no one will ever find them. That’ll show them to root for the stinking Cowboys!

Emmitt: Maple, you just tolded everyone you bury them in the desert, so all the police need to do is buy a map that lead to the desert and find the body, and then you will be under the rest and you has the right or wrong to remain to the silence.

Reilly: Don’t be silly, Emmitt. The desert is large, so they’ll never find the bodies. I’ll continue hitting people with my trusty lead pipe and burying them, and then there won’t be any Cowboy fans left! Ha!

Edwards: IT WAS KEVIN REILLY! IT WAS REILLY! IT WAS KEVIN! IT WAS REILLY, KEVIN! IT WAS HIM WITH THE PIPE! THE LEAD PIPE! IT WAS KEVIN REILLY WITH THE LEAD PIPE! IT WAS KEVIN REILLY WITH THE LEAD PIPE IN THE STREET! I SOLVED THE CASE! I CRACKED THE CASE! I WON THE CASE! THE CASE HAS BEEN SOLVED! THE CASE HAS BEEN WON! THE CASE HAS BEEN CRACKED! WHERE’S MY PRIZE!? WHAT DID I WIN!? WILL SOMEONE TELL ME WHAT I WON!? WHY DIDN’T I GET A PRIZE FOR WINNING!? DID HERM GET THE ANSWER WRONG!? DID HERM NOT CRACK THE CASE!? WAS IT KEVIN REILLY WITH THE REVOLVER!? WAS IT KEVIN REILLY WITH THE ROPE!? WAS IT KEVIN REILLY WITH THE KNIFE!? WAS IT EVEN KEVIN REILLY!? MAYBE IT WAS MR. GREEN WITH THE REVOLVER!? OR MAYBE MISS SCARLETT WITH THE ROPE!? OR MAYBE IT WAS DOCTOR GRAPE WITH THE KNIFE! BUT THERE IS NO DOCTOR GRAPE! WHERE DID HERM GET DOCTOR GRAPE FROM!? WHERE DID DOCTOR GRAPE COME FROM!? WHERE DID DOCTOR GRAPE GO!? WHO IS DOCTOR GRAPE!? Doctor… uhh… umm…

Reilly: We’re not playing Clue, you idiot, we’re talking about how many rotten Cowboy fans I’ve killed with my lead pipe!

Millen: Clue is one of my favorite games, Kevin. Glad you brought it up. Talking about it has conjured memories from my childhood. I always chose to be Colonel Mustard because the colonel was a great man. He was the first 100-percent USDA Man I recognized, and I’ve grown a mustache because of him. While playing the game, I imagined Colonel Mustard and I, sneaking off to the study, sitting by the cozy fireplace, and him inserting a juicy, giant kielbasa into my backside.

Tollefson: Clue was an unrealistic game, Matty boy. How could they allow Miss Scarlett, Mrs. White and Mrs. Peacock into the mansion without forcing them to cook and clean naked? Once I realized that these women weren’t cooking and cleaning naked for Colonel Mustard, Mr. Green and Professor Plum, I quit playing the game entirely!

Fouts: You quit the game? How exactly do you quit a game?

Tollefson: I don’t know… I just got up, kicked the board, spit in my friends’ faces and walked away.

Fouts: And here’s how you quit a game. First, you have to get up. To get up, you have to be down. So, you have to get down from being up, which means you had to be up in the first place. Then, you kick the board. You can’t use your arms though because that wouldn’t qualify as kicking. That would be a punch. You need to use your legs to kick. Then, you need to spit in your friends’ faces. To do that, you need to make friends first. Go to the local bar, library or even McDonald’s and begin talking to people. Make them your friends, and then invite them over for Clue, so you can spit in their faces. And last but not least, you need to walk away. Again, you can’t use your arms. Unless you walk with your arms. Then, you can use your arms to walk away. Otherwise, you’ll have to use your legs to walk away. That’s how you quit a game.

Tollefson: Uhh… I just said that…

Reilly: Guys, can we talk about the game instead of Clue? I want to get this over so I can attack more Cowboy fans in the street.

Charles Davis: Let’s further discuss Clue first, Kevin. Did you know that they introduced four new characters in addition to the original six, Kevin? They began with Miss Peach, Kevin. She is not to be confused with Princess Peach, Kevin, the princess who is often in another castle, Kevin. How about Monsieur Brunette, Kevin? He’s French, Kevin. You can tell that by his name, Kevin. Monsieur means mister, Kevin. Let’s move on, Kevin. What about Madame Rose, Kevin? She’s also French, Kevin. Madame means miss, Kevin. I bet you didn’t know that, Kevin. There’s just one more name, Kevin. It begins with Sergeant, Kevin. Can you guess what color his last name is, Kevin? Give up, Kevin? Oh, you guess aqua, Kevin? Nope, not Sergeant Aqua, Kevin. Oh, you think it’s teal, Kevin? Not Sergeant Teal either, Kevin. Give up, Kevin? OK, you had your chance, Kevin. It’s Sergeant Gray, Kevin.

Reilly: YOU IDIOT, I NEVER EVEN HAD A CHANCE TO GUESS ANYTHING BECAUSE YOU KEPT TALKING OVER ME! I’LL BURY YOU IN THE DESERT ONCE I HIT YOU WITH MY LEAD PIPE! We’ll be back after this!

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys continued to roll last week despite missing one tackle and having the other one play at less than 100 percent. Tyron Smith did not have a good game, but it didn’t matter because Tony Romo was barely sacked in one of the top performances of his career, while DeMarco Murray continued to pile up rushing yardage.

The Redskins appeared to have the edge in this matchup in terms of being able to get to the quarterback, but Brian Orakpo was ruled out for the year with a torn chest. This will leave Ryan Kerrigan and former Cowboy Jason Hatcher to rush the passer by themselves, but they may still have some success. They’re both playing on a high level, and Kerrigan has a nice matchup against Doug Free’s backup.

Having said that, Romo, Murray and Dez Bryant still figure to have huge outings. The Giants left Bryant in single coverage way too often last week, allowing Romo to torch their secondary. Washington’s defensive backfield is even worse, so it’ll probably opt to double Bryant. This will allow Murray to run amok, though it has to be noted that the Redskins are a solid fifth against the rush (3.43 YPC).

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Robert Griffin will play in this game if he’s 100 percent, but according to Jay Gruden, he definitely needs to be 100 percent to be able to suit up. This is frustrating for anyone who wants to see a competitive football game, but it’s absolutely the right call. The Redskins have gotten burned by rushing Griffin back early, so they need to make sure their franchise quarterback is 100 percent.

Colt McCoy is likely to play, which could be disastrous. McCoy has a noodle arm, and the only reason he led the Redskins to victory last week is because Pierre Garcon slipped by two horrible Tennessee defensive backs after catching a short pass and ended up going the distance. The Cowboys are better than the Titans defensively (and in all other aspects), so McCoy probably won’t have as much luck.

The Redskins might still be able to move the chains with Alfred Morris. Though Washington’s big back has struggled – he’s averaging just 3.8 yards per carry – he’ll be battling a Dallas defense ranked 31st against the run, surrendering 5.28 YPC. Only Carolina is worse.

RECAP: The Redskins were much more enticing at +10. The spread isn’t as great now, as there has been some sharp action that has bet this down. I’ll take Washington, as the number is still too high for a rivalry game, but I’m not going to jump at the prospect of wagering hard-earned money on Colt McCoy.

MONDAY NOTE: This spread is +9 in most places, but it’s a whopping +10.5 at Bovada. If you like the Redskins, lock them in there.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, this spread is available at +10.5 on Bovada. I like the Redskins to cover, but not enough to bet them. I just don’t trust Colt McCoy. However, these rivalry games are usually close, and the Cowboys are getting too much hype. Seriously, how many times can ESPN play that Kid Rock Cowboy song? Don’t they know that another team is playing this game? And are celebrities like Derek Jeter really going to the game? Washington seems like the right side, especially considering how much action is on Dallas tonight.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

The sportsbooks will need Washington to cover.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

History: Cowboys have won 5 of the previous 7 meetings.

The underdog is 48-19 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Tony Romo is 10-2 ATS after the Cowboys have allowed 35+ points. ???

Cowboys are 10-20 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 4-15 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Tony Romo is 8-19 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving (4-2 on Thanksgiving).

Tony Romo is 1-8 ATS on Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Cowboys -9.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Redskins 20
Redskins +10.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 20, Cowboys 17

Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)