NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)

NFL Picks (2014): 23-24-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 22, 4:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games





San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 42.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -1.
Sunday, Sept. 21, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 1,208 remain. The Saints, 49ers and Buccaneers combined to knock out more than 400 people in Week 2.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Sunday night game was extremely painful to watch. I had two units on the 49ers, so witnessing them blow a 17-0 lead because of countless penalties and turnovers was absolutely brutal.

I knew it was completely over when Vernon Davis bent awkwardly while being tackled and limped to the sideline. Davis was done with an ankle, and Kaepernick, who was already dreadful, had no chance because he has always struggled when he hasn’t been able to lean on his Pro Bowl tight end. Fortunately for Kaepernick, Davis avoided a major injury, so there’s a chance he’ll play this Sunday. Kaepernick better hope so because his numbers are dubious without him.

The Cardinals have a tough defense, so San Francisco could use all hands on deck anyway. Arizona is currently third in terms of stopping the rush (2.59 YPC), meaning Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde won’t get nearly as much as they have in their first two games. This will allow the Cardinal pass rush, aided by the return of John Abraham, to rattle Kaepernick, who has to throw against a pair of elite corners, as well as Tyrann Mathieu, who will see an expanded role this week after getting five snaps at New York.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Most books don’t have a spread on this game yet because of Carson Palmer’s status. Either way, it’s not looking good for the Cardinals. Palmer apparently has some nerve issues in his shoulder, and it’s uncertain if he’ll be back this week or if he’ll have to be out for a month. Drew Stanton, meanwhile, did enough not to lose against the Giants, but he’ll actually have to be more than a game manager in order to lead his team to a victory against a better defense.

The Cardinals are hurting all over because Andre Ellington is banged up as well, though he was solid against the Giants last week. But again, Ellington will face a tougher challenge in this contest. The 49ers limited the Bears to just 21 rushing yards, and you better believe that they’ll focus on shutting down Ellington with either an injured Palmer or an overwhelmed Stanton at the helm.

Speaking of the quarterbacks, I’m not sure either will be able to consistently take advantage of the one matchup edge Arizona has on this side of the ball. The 49ers’ banged-up secondary is no match for Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, but will Palmer and/or Stanton be able to get them the ball? I wouldn’t count on them doing so.

RECAP: I really like the 49ers this week. Everyone is so down on them just because they didn’t focus against a team that just lost to the Bills. The 49ers have always rebounded well off a loss to Jim Harbaugh, and I expect them to do that once more in this contest.

This will probably be a two- or three-unit selection, depending on what the spread is and whether or not Vernon Davis will suit up. Stay tuned.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money on Arizona. I still like the 49ers, but I’m going with one unit here because Vernon Davis will probably be out. Even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent.

SUNDAY NOTES: Not having Vernon Davis hurts the 49ers. Not having Carson Palmer hurts the Cardinals more. There’s sharp money on Arizona, but this game no longer violates the 80-20 rule.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
The money is on the 49ers despite their loss to the Bears.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 79% (16,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • History: 49ers have won 11 of the last 14 meetings.
  • Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.
  • Cardinals are 22-10 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 3 NFL Pick: 49ers 26, Cardinals 20
    49ers -3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
    Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Cardinals 23, 49ers 14






    Denver Broncos (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
    Line: Seahawks by 4. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -4.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -6.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 21, 4:25 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

    Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Josh Gordon tells the tale of how he got into trouble with the NFL and why he was exiled from America. Stay tuned for next week’s episode on Friday.

    DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning was completely humiliated in the Super Bowl. You better believe he’s spent the past seven months thinking about how he’s going to dissect Richard Sherman and Seattle’s secondary. All he’s been doing during that time span is poring over film of the Seahawk defensive backfield. He’ll have all of their schemes down to a tee.

    And yet, it may not matter because the Seattle secondary is that good. The Seahawks did struggle a bit last week, but they won’t be wearing dark uniforms in 120-degree heat this time. They’ll have their ridiculously loud fans supporting them and creating chaos for Manning at the line of scrimmage. All of Manning’s pointing and “Omaha” yelling might be negated because his teammates won’t be able to hear anything.

    Manning will have to do it all on his own because Montee Ball will have trouble getting positive yardage versus a ground defense that has surrendered 3.49 yards per carry to the opposition. Ball has looked like just a Big Ten plodder anyway, failing to generate much yardage against both the Colts and Seahawks.

    Fortunately for Manning, he’ll have Wes Welker at his disposal once more. Welker will be back from his suspension, so that’ll just be another weapon Manning will have in his arsenal. You better believe Manning was watching Eddie Royal dance and juke around the Seahawk defensive backs, so perhaps he’ll focus on getting the ball to Welker and Emmanuel Sanders more than he normally would.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: Manning’s incompetence in the Super Bowl was just one side of the coin. Russell Wilson was very impressive, and he’s continued his high level of play this season. Wilson has completed 67.9 percent of his passes through two games and has yet to turn to the ball over.

    Of course, Wilson will be battling a different unit than he competed against in the Super Bowl. The Broncos brought in several big names this offseason, including DeMarcus Ware, who has been as good as advertised. Ware and the rest of the defensive front will chase Wilson around, though that’s not necessarily a good thing, considering how fantastic the Seattle signal-caller is when it comes to making plays while on the move.

    The Broncos also added T.J. Ward and Bradley Roby to their secondary, and they’ve enjoyed using Chris Harris at corner as well. Harris suffered a knee injury last year and wasn’t available for the Super Bowl, so that’s three brand-new defensive backs Wilson will have to worry about.

    The Seahawks will naturally attempt to establish Marshawn Lynch on the ground to combat some of the pressure Denver’s front will provide. Lynch may find it difficult to find any sort of running lanes; Denver’s ground defense is currently ninth in terms of YPC, surrendering 3.73 yards per carry.

    RECAP: As mentioned, Manning and the Broncos have been preparing for this game for seven months. All of the work they’ve done this offseason is for beating Seattle. Manning is also usually pretty clutch in terms of covering the spread as an underdog.

    Having said that, if I had to make a bet on this game – and I definitely won’t – it would be on the Seahawks. They’re extremely dominant at home, and I don’t think there’s anything Manning and the Broncos can do to simulate that crazy noise. There is also value with Seattle; I have this spread at -6.5.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m just going to enjoy this game. I don’t see a betting edge for either side, and neither do the sharps.

    SUNDAY NOTES: There was no sharp indication on this during the week, but some professionals bet Denver on Sunday morning. They were waiting for the public to bet up Seattle, but that never happened.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Major revenge game for the Broncos, but the Seahawks will be up for it.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 52% (46,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Peyton Manning is 14-6 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
  • Seahawks are 21-4 ATS in September home games since 2000.
  • Seahawks are 26-10 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Russell Wilson is 5-1 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: .


    Week 3 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Broncos 17
    Seahawks -4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Seahawks 26, Broncos 20






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)
    Line: Dolphins by 4. Total: 42.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Dolphins -6.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -2.
    Sunday, Sept. 21, 4:25 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is All Waiters Hate Me.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins suffered a huge blow this past Sunday when Knowshon Moreno went down. Moreno dislocated his elbow and could be out for two months. Of course, that pales in comparison to what the Chiefs have been through. They’ve suffered countless injuries on defense. Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson were already among those who were gone prior to last Sunday’s game, and now Kansas City might be without Eric Berry, who sprained his ankle.

    Berry was the player holding Kansas City’s makeshift secondary together. With him gone, Ryan Tannehill could have success, provided that he doesn’t have another one of his “off” days where he tends to be very inaccurate. He struggled at Buffalo, but perhaps a softer defense will help him turn things around.

    Lamar Miller, meanwhile, will handle the work on the ground. Miller didn’t do much with his 11 carries at Buffalo (46 yards), but he’ll probably have more success against Kansas City’s banged-up defensive front.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs’ injuries aren’t limited to their defense. Jamaal Charles also left last Sunday’s game. I didn’t think Kansas City would have much of a chance once Charles exited, but Knile Davis stepped up big time. Davis has averaged five yards per carry in the three games Charles has missed since he joined the Chiefs.

    Davis may struggle to reach that figure, however. The Dolphins boast a solid ground defense that limited the Bills last week, save for one C.J. Spiller run. However, Davis will also be a factor as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He’ll be more effective in this role considering the state of Miami’s pedestrian linebacking corps.

    Alex Smith, meanwhile, will continue to run around and keep drives alive with his legs. All Smith can do aerially is dump off passes to his play-makers, so it hurts him that Charles won’t be available. Smith should still have a relatively decent outing though.

    RECAP: I like the Chiefs enough to wager three units on them. Here’s why:

    1. The Dolphins are horrific in the role of a favorite. The underdog is 52-23 against the spread in Miami’s previous 75 games.

    2. Miami could be looking ahead to next week. Sure, they only battle the Raiders, but they’ll be doing so in London. Teams are 4-10 against the spread prior to playing in London.

    3. Playoff teams that begin the season 0-2 are usually sound bets in Week 3. This is a must-win for Kansas City. A loss would end its season.

    4. I don’t agree with this spread at all. Considering everything, I have the Dolphins at -2, so we’re getting two points of line value.

    UPDATE: I’m not letting the sharps screw me over. I’m locking this three-unit wager in at +4. This line may keep dropping.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m locked in with Chiefs +4. I’m still confident.

    SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps bet the Chiefs early in the week. Other professionals took the Dolphins on Sunday morning. For what it’s worth, Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web, is begging its customers to take Miami.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Chiefs might be flat in this game after putting everything they had into the Denver game. The Dolphins, however, have to travel to London.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Kansas City: 57% (16,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Underdog is 52-23 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 74 games.
  • Dolphins are 2-13 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.
  • Dolphins are 3-10 ATS in September home games since 2006.
  • Dolphins are 9-26 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Dolphins -5.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 3 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Chiefs 23
    Chiefs +4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
    Over 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Chiefs 34, Dolphins 15






    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-0)
    Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 42.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -3.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -4.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 21, 8:30 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Panthers.

    I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

    I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

    Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I’ve always said that you need to do three primary things to be a Super Bowl champion in this new, pass-happy NFL: You have to have a quarterback, protect your quarterback and get to the other quarterback. The Steelers, of course, have Ben Roethlisberger, but the other two attributes are severely lacking. We saw both capsize their chances of winning Thursday night.

    The Steelers had major issues keeping Roethlisberger upright, and it’s not like they were battling a dominant defense. The Ravens hit Andy Dalton only once in their opener, so imagine what Carolina’s defensive line will do to Pittsburgh’s front. Greg Hardy is out (finally), but Charles Johnson and the rest of the players in his group made life difficult for Matthew Stafford last week, sacking him five times.

    Le’Veon Bell won’t find much room to run either. There is a bit of good news for the Steelers though, and it’s that Lance Moore is expected to play. That may not seem like a big deal, but consider how awful Justin Brown was Thursday night. Moore will provide a considerable upgrade.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Steelers might be even worse at getting to the quarterback than protecting one. They registered no sacks on Joe Flacco. This has to be music to Cam Newton’s ears considering how poor his offensive line is.

    Newton, despite battling a more dominant defensive front this past Sunday, managed to move the chains effectively on Detroit’s defense. He exposed Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay, and he figures to have similar success against Pittsburgh’s pathetic secondary. Ike Taylor can’t cover anyone, Cortez Allen was awful last week, and Michael Mitchell, whom Newton is familiar with, hasn’t gotten off to a poor start with the Steelers.

    The Panthers might also be able to run the ball a bit. DeAngelo Williams, who is expected to play, might have success against a defense currently ranked 31st in YPC. The Steelers have yielded a league-second-worst 327 rushing yards through two games.

    RECAP: I’d avoid betting on the Panthers. There will be TONS of action on them because the public will either be doubling up or trying to win back their losses on the final game of the day. However, the Steelers are a complete mess, so I wouldn’t advise wagering on them either.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is pounding the Panthers, but there’s very little sharp support on the Steelers. Carolina seems like the right side, but I’m not going against just a one-sided game on national TV again.

    SUNDAY NOTES: There’s only some sharp support on the Steelers. Most of the money is coming in on the Panthers, which is bad news for a nationally televised game.


    The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
    The Steelers were embarrassed on national TV, so they’ll want to redeem themselves.


    The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
    Who wants to bet on Pittsburgh after that Thursday night debacle?
  • Percentage of money on Carolina: 68% (35,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Panthers are 20-27 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001. ???
  • Opening Line: Panthers -3.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: .


    Week 3 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Steelers 20
    Panthers -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Over 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Steelers 37, Panthers 19






    Chicago Bears (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)
    Line: Jets by 1. Total: 45.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Jets -1.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -2.5.
    Monday, Sept. 22, 8:30 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, complete morons like Ron Zappolo, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of North Jersey where the Jets will be taking on the hated Bears. I hate the Bears so much, guys. I went with them in survivor in Week 1, and they cost me big time. I was going to use the winnings from the survivor pool to make my late mortgage payments, so now what am I supposed to do? Mother said I should sell my Eagles’ memorabilia, but then I told her to shut up!

    Emmitt: Marcus, I do not understanding what you mean by survivor pool. Survivor was show in TV when guys and girls try to survive on island or they die and then get eatened by polar bear.

    Reilly: Emmitt, I’m talking about the game where you pick one team to win, and if they don’t, you’re out.

    Edwards: SHOULD NOT HAVE PICKED THE BEARS! SHOULDN’T HAVE DONE IT! WHY DID YOU DO IT! YOU MADE A MISTAKE! A BIG MISTAKE! A BIG ERROR! SHOULD ALWAYS PICK THE BEST TEAM IN SURVIVOR! PICK THE SEAHAWKS OR BRONCOS EACH WEEK! SEAHAWKS OR BRONCOS! BRONCOS OR SEAHAWKS! EACH WEEK! JUST DO IT! WHY NOT DO IT? WHY DIDN’T YOU DO IT? YOU’RE RESPONSIBLE! RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN LOSS! BECAUSE YOU PICKED A BAD TEAM! BEARS AREN’T GOOD! BEARS AREN’T EVEN MEDIOCRE! BEARS ARE BAD! HOW BAD? BEARS ARE REAL BAD! REAL, REAL BAD! WORSE THAN THE BRONCOS! WORSE THAN THE SEAHAWKS! WORSE THAN THE BRONCOS AND SEAHAWKS COMBINED! IF YOU COMBINE THEM, THEY’RE WORSE! IF YOU COMBINE… combine… uhh…

    Reilly: You can’t pick the same team more than once, you a**hole!

    Millen: A**hole!? Where!?

    Reilly: Not a literal a**hole. I was talking about Herm.

    Millen: You know, Kevin, all of this talk about survivor and a**holes has given me a great idea. What if you had a survivor pool where you’d pick which a**hole I inserted my kielbasa into each night, and the winner would get great tips on how to become 100-percent USDA Man, so you could ultimately spend a kielbasa-filled night with me?

    Tollefson: Here’s an even better idea: What if we gathered up a bunch of women, asked them to cook and clean for me while naked, and the ones who did the worst job get booted off the show?

    Reilly: Guys, can we talk about football here? There’s a game on, and I want the Bears to lose! Ugh, the producers are telling me to let Ron Zappolo talk.

    Zappolo: Thanks, Mike! Today’s game between the New York Knicks and the Chicago Bulls is brought to you by State Farm. Discount double check your way to a State Farm rep today!

    Reilly: What? State Farm isn’t one of our sponsors. What are you reading off of?

    Fouts: State Farm could be one of our sponsors, Kevin. Here’s how that works, Kevin. A company like State Farm comes to our broadcasting corporation and says they want to advertise during commercials. And here’s what I mean by commercials, Kevin. The game goes on for a while, but then there’s a stoppage. Here’s what I mean by stoppage, Kevin. A stoppage is when the game stops, Kevin. From an injury, to a timeout, to a score, the game stops occasionally. When these stoppages occur, we go off the air for about a minute or two. That’s when the commercials play. These commercials are advertisements. Here’s what I mean by advertisement, Kevin. An advertisement is a commercial for a product. Here’s what I mean by commercial, Kevin. Commercials show advertisements. Here’s what I mean by advertisements… oh no, I’m somehow stuck in an infinite loop. Here’s what I mean by infinite loop…

    Zappolo: And that’s the game, gentlemen! The Bears have beaten the Knicks, 34 to 28! It was great having you with us!

    Reilly: What!? The game didn’t start yet! What are you, from the future!? Or maybe just from f***tard land! We’ll be back after this!

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: I love this hype the Bears’ defense is getting. “Zomg they made like 50000 interceptions against teh 49s!!!” Ugh. How quickly people forget that Chicago’s stop unit had no answer for Buffalo’s offense in the season opener. They beat a San Francisco team that put zero effort into that Sunday night game, and now we’re talking about the ’85 Bears again? Are people serious?

    If the Jets could move the ball on the Raiders and Packers, they’ll certainly have success versus Chicago. There’s one caveat though: Eric Decker’s health. Decker is the only professional receiver on the Jets’ offense, so it’s no surprise that Geno Smith struggled when his top target was knocked out of last week’s game with a bum hamstring. It’s unknown if Decker will play Monday night, but even if he does, he may not be 100 percent.

    If Decker is indeed banged up, the Jets will have to rely on their rushing attack to move the chains. Luckily for them, the Bears ranked 30th in that department in terms of YPC. Chris Ivory, who has been far superior compared to the sluggish Chris Johnson, should get the majority of the workload.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Nothing can be taken away from New York’s Week 1 victory because the Raiders are complete garbage. However, the team’s Week 2 defensive performance was impressive, as the defensive line managed to rattle Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have offensive line woes, of course, but the Bears have some issues as well. Roberto Garza has been out, which has created some issues on the interior. Right tackle Jordan Mills hasn’t been very good either.

    I like Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson’s chances of pressuring Cutler heavily. That said, Cutler will still connect with his mammoth receivers because the Jets just don’t have the personnel in the secondary to contend with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.

    Cutler will have to do everything on his own again because Matt Forte won’t see any sort of running lanes. The Jets have one of the elite ground defenses in the NFL, so Forte will be very limited for the second-consecutive week.

    RECAP: I’d highly recommend staying away from the Bears. We’ve seen shady things happen to heavily bet teams on Monday night, and the public is pounding Chicago.

    I actually like the Jets a bit. I’m not sure if I’ll stomach betting more than a unit on Geno Smith as a favorite, but the Bears are receiving way too much hype right now. They looked so smug after their win over the 49ers, so they might be too full of themselves and overlook New York.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Jets earlier in the week, raising the spread from pick to -2.5. The public took Chicago down to +1 earlier today, and then there was more professional money on New York. The Jets appear to be the right side, but I’m not crazy about this pick. I’m still going with one unit.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
    The public is backing the Bears after that Sunday night win.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 72% (65,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Jay Cutler is 7-4 ATS on Monday Night Football.
  • Jets are 9-14 ATS in September home games since 2000 (5-3 since in 2009).
  • Opening Line: Pick.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 3 NFL Pick: Jets 26, Bears 21
    Jets -1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; $0
    Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Bears 27, Jets 19



    Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Tampa Bay�at�Atlanta, San Diego�at�Buffalo, Tennessee�at�Cincinnati, Baltimore�at�Cleveland, Green Bay�at�Detroit, Dallas�at�St. Louis, Oakland�at�New England, Minnesota�at�New Orleans, Houston�at�NY Giants, Washington�at�Philadelphia, Indianapolis�at�Jacksonville


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Browns +8.5, Packers +8.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220





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    2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
    2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
    2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
    2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
    2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
    2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
    2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
    2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
    2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
    2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
    2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
    2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
    2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
    2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
    2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
    2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
    2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
    2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
    2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
    2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
    2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
    2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
    2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
    2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
    2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
    2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
    2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
    2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
    2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
    Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2015 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    Super Bowl 50 NFL Pick
    2016 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2017 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2018 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2019 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2020 Season:
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    Super Bowl LV Pick

    2021 Season:
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    2022 Season:
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    2023 Season:
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