NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)

NFL Picks (2011): 22-21-4 (-$265)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 26, 4:40 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-1)
Line: Chargers by 15. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Chargers -9.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Chargers -13.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

E-mailer David P. works at a bar in West Chester, Pa. (I worked for West Chester’s newspaper back in 2005; it’s about a 45-minute drive from Philly). David’s a reader of this Web site and also happens to be in charge of posting slogans on the sign outside of the bar. He said I could be named “celebrity customer of the week” and receive alcohol in exchange for promoting the bar and giving him more slogans. I’ll have to think of slogans – suggestions are very welcome – but here’s something David P. posted earlier in the summer

Celebration time! I can just hear the uptight, pretentious douche bags who work in the media cringing at the lack of political correctness on that sign. I love it.

Anyway, you may have noticed a link below each point spread and pick that says Discuss Game, Talk Trash. This is for the new Sunday Smackdown section, where you’ll be able to talk about the game throughout the week and during Sunday’s action. Unlike NFL.com’s GameCenter, anything goes, save for the obvious bad words.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Matt Cassel stinks. He’s 57-of-109 for 437 yards, one touchdown and a whopping nine interceptions in his last four games, three of which have been at home. As I wrote last week, the only way Todd Haley can turn this around is to pull a Buddy Garrity and meet Charlie Weis at some random diner halfway between Kansas City and Gainesville.

The Chargers are ranked 24th against the pass, but that stat is misleading because Tom Brady destroyed them in Week 2. They limited Donovan McNabb to 39 passing yards in the opening contest, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Cassel posts a similar total.

Unfortunately for Kansas City, Jamaal Charles is out, so Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones will split carries. McCluster has game-breaking talent, so there’s a chance he could have a couple of long gains. San Diego ranks 22nd versus the rush.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers are up to their old tricks. Philip Rivers is looking great, but San Diego keeps making mistakes. Whether it’s turning the ball over inside the opposing 35, surrendering kick returns, or calling bad plays near the goal line, the Chargers are once again beating themselves.

Since it’s early in the year, I expect that to continue in this contest. Romeo Crennel is an excellent defensive coordinator and still has really good players on his stop unit. He did a number on San Diego’s offense in the opening week of the 2010 season, so it wouldn’t really surprise me if the Chargers were somewhat limited in this contest – especially if they keep using the fumble-prone Mike Tolbert over the flashy Ryan Mathews.

RECAP: I absolutely love the Chiefs in this game. You may ask, “How can you possibly like Kansas City? They stink, and they keep getting blown out?” Well, those are two of the reasons…

1. I actually don’t think the Chiefs are THAT bad. As mentioned, Crennel is still there. Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr are all outstanding defenders. Tyson Jackson is actually doing a good job this year. Kelly Gregg can still stuff the run. Inside linebacker Jovan Belcher is underrated. Yes, they just gave up a billion points to Detroit, but the team was really deflated when Charles was lost. You could see it. They just gave up. More on this later, by the way.

2. In terms of just covering, it’s good when a team loses by more than 28 points – underdogs in this situation are 55-30 against the spread since 2002, excluding the weird Week 17 games. As you can imagine, teams that get “blowed out” have the line heavily inflated against them, since no one wants to bet on them.

3. But Kansas City has been “blowed out” twice. Even better. Teams that have lost by 28-plus in two consecutive games are 3-1 against the spread since 2002. Furthermore, teams that have a losing margin of 70 points or more in consecutive contests are 2-0 ATS in the same span. Both the 2002 Cardinals and 2009 Titans were destroyed twice in a row, and both came back with straight-up victories.

4. The Chiefs are unlikely to get a straight-up victory against the Chargers, as this high spread may indicate. The line, as of this writing, is +14.5. That’s significant, as San Diego hasn’t covered a spread of 14 or more this decade (0-3 ATS).

5. Speaking of the spread, I think this line is out of control. Yes, the Chiefs are bad, but are they much worse than Minnesota? I bring up the Vikings because they were only +9 at San Diego. Is Kansas City really 5.5 points worse than crappy Minnesota? As I indicated earlier, I don’t think so.

6. The Chargers won’t be nearly as juiced up for this game as they were against the Vikings anyway. I’m not talking about their annual September swoon, though that doesn’t hurt. San Diego will simply be on an emotional low after losing to New England.

7. The Chiefs, meanwhile, should have motivation to beat San Diego. Missing Cassel, they lost to the Chargers, 31-0, in December last year. This plays a factor, as teams playing a divisional road game attempting to avenge a loss of 14-plus points to the same opponent are 72-47 against the spread since 2002.

8. I also like the fact that Kansas City is an underdog playing its second-consecutive road game off a loss. Teams fare well in this scenario (121-69 ATS since 2002). Todd Haley himself is 4-0 ATS in this situation.

9. I like the line movement. This spread opened -15, but despite tons of money on San Diego, the line has dropped to -14.5, indicating that A) the sharps like the visitor and B) the books want more money on the host.

I said I’d bring this up again – will the Chiefs lose all hope now that they’re without their best offensive player in Charles? Maybe. But we’ve seen teams bounce back from this before – notably the Patriots without Tom Brady in 2008 and the Broncos losing Terrell Davis in 1999. That Denver team was 0-4 when it lost Davis a torn ACL. They won the following week at Oakland as 7-point underdogs.

LOCKED IN: Antonio Gates is out. This may cause the line to drop, so I’ll settle for the +15 that can be found on Bodog.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

It’s going to be tough for the Chargers to get up for the Chiefs after losing at New England.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Who in their right mind would bet on Kansas City?

Percentage of money on San Diego: 75% (70,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Home Team has won 19 of the last 26 meetings (Chargers have won 6 of the last 7).

Third Time’s a Charm: 0-2 Teams that made the playoffs the previous year are 13-7 ATS in Week 3 since 2003 (7-3 as favorites).

Todd Haley is 4-0 ATS as a road dog after a road loss.

Chiefs are 19-12 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Chiefs are 9-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.

Chargers are 8-2 ATS at home the week after playing on the East Coast since 2004.

Opening Line: Chargers -15.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Sunny, 75 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Chargers 23, Chiefs 16
Chiefs +15 (6 Units – Dual September NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$600
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 20, Chiefs 17

New York Jets (2-0) at Oakland Raiders (1-1)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Jets -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Jets -3.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now 1,400 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started – a number of lost entries because of the Ravens. The lesson as always, don’t pick a road team in a survivor pool. Oh wait, that’s what I’m doing this week. D’oh!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: If Shonn Greene doesn’t get going here, he never will. Greene’s had two tough matchups against the Cowboys and Jaguars, and has disappointed his fantasy owners as a result. The Raiders just surrendered 194 rushing yards to Fred Jackson and the Bills.

Greene will need to run the ball well because of the Jets’ pass-protection issues. Right tackle Wayne Hunter is terrible, but wasn’t exposed at all by a weak Jacksonville pass rush last week, as the Jaguars were trailing throughout. Hunter will have more of a challenge in this game. Oakland mustered five sacks in the season opener at Denver.

If Mark Sanchez can play out of third-and-manageable situations, there won’t be any excuses for him to struggle. We all saw what Ryan Fitzpatrick just did to this Oakland secondary.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of secondaries, Jason Campbell won’t have the luxury of beating up on the Bills or Broncos this week. He’ll be matched up against Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, who will make sure Denarius Moore doesn’t come up with too many circus catches in this contest.

The Raiders’ only hope of moving the chains is obviously with Darren McFadden. Stopping him on the ground won’t be easy; the Jaguars just compiled 107 rushing yards on 25 carries against the Jets last week. Having McFadden as an effective weapon out of the backfield will be important for a Raider offensive line that has protected Campbell pretty well thus far, but will get more of a test from Ryan and his chaotic blitzes.

RECAP: I think this is a very tough spot for the Jets. They have the Ravens and Patriots scheduled after this contest. They’re traveling all the way on the West Coast, so they may not be focused for the Raiders, who are playing solid football this year. With tons of money on New York, I like Oakland quite a bit.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

Will the Jets be focused for Oakland? Following this contest, they have the Ravens and Patriots.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Slight lean on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 13-8 ATS on the road since 2009.

Raiders are 18-36 ATS at home the previous 54 instances.

Opening Line: Jets -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Jets 20, Raiders 19
Raiders +3 -120 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 34, Jets 24

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at St. Louis Rams (0-2)
Line: Ravens by 5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Ravens -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Ravens -3.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 2 has been posted – Chris Johnson is demanding a new contract. Emmitt gives his opinion on Sunday NFL Countdown. Episode 3 will be posted this weekend.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I’m almost too frustrated to write about this. The Rams have killed themselves with mistakes and red-zone ineptness the past two weeks. They’ve moved the chains well between the 20s, but when they don’t commit a careless turnover deep in opposing territory, they stall near the goal line because no one can get open.

And all of this was against the hobbled Giants and flawed Eagles. Now, the Rams get the angry Ravens, who put forth a poor effort last week against Tennessee.

I’m expecting a ton of turnovers and field goals again. Baltimore is ranked fifth versus the rush (3.0 YPC), so even if Steven Jackson plays, he won’t get much on the ground. Sam Bradford will have to operate behind a shaky line in third-and-long situations, and he won’t be able to convert first downs because his receivers will undoubtedly drop a ton of passes.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: While the Ravens thrive against the run, the Rams have struggled against it these past two weeks. LeSean McCoy had a long touchdown in the opener, while Brandon Jacobs and D.J. Ware were able to move the chains at will in the fourth quarter even when St. Louis knew the Giants were going to keep it on the ground.

Ray Rice is going to have a huge performance, which will make life much easier for Joe Flacco, who didn’t have any time to throw at Tennessee. Flacco will be able to move the football consistently, as St. Louis’ secondary is in shambles. Seriously, it’s embarrassing that Al Harris is actually playing for the Rams. Shouldn’t he be in a retirement home by now?

RECAP: The Ravens have the matchup advantage, but I’m not touching this game because both teams are in bad spots. The Rams will be down coming off a double-digit loss on Monday Night Football, while Baltimore is in the unenviable situation of playing as a visiting favorite immediately following a road loss. Plus, laying more than a field goal with a road team coming off a defeat is never a good idea.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The public did not like what it saw out of the Rams on Monday night.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 89% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens are 12-5 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Rams 12
Ravens -5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 37, Rams 7

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 1.5. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Pick.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Falcons -1.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 19, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Curly Mustache Lady. 2) Owl Girl. 3) Coffee Queen.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan lived up to his Matty Ice moniker against the Eagles on Sunday night, leading the Falcons to a come-from-behind victory, albeit after QB Dog Killer was injured.

But ice melts in the sun, which perhaps explains why the Falcons usually aren’t as good in outdoor games. Ryan really struggled against the Bears in the opener, committing two turnovers and throwing no touchdowns. That was against the Bears though, and Tampa’s secondary has struggled in the early going, ranking 26th against the pass with an 8.5 YPA. The catch could be the return of stud safety Tanard Jackson, who is back from suspension.

Ryan should have a solid game, but Michael Turner will be the one to literally and figuratively carry the Falcons; Tampa isn’t good versus the rush either, ranking 23rd against it.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It was important that Raheem Morris got LeGarrette Blount heavily involved in the second half of the Minnesota game because Josh Freeman has been struggling with his decision-making. Unfortunately, Blount has a tougher matchup against an Atlanta defense that ranks 13th versus the run (3.8 YPC).

With that said, even if Freeman doesn’t have Blount ripping off chunks of yardage again, he should still be able to have a solid performance. I know I said he’s been struggling with his decision-making, but the Falcons have shown no resistance against the pass, ranking 30th against it in terms of YPA (9.1). Jay Cutler torched Atlanta’s secondary, and even Mike Kafka was a sharp 7-of-9 in relief of an injured QB Dog Killer.

The key for Atlanta’s defense will be getting to Freeman. The Falcons mustered five sacks in the opener, but that was more of a result of Cutler holding on to the ball too long. Ray Edwards hasn’t done anything this year. He needs to step up.

RECAP: This is one of the toughest games to call this week. The Falcons stink on the road, but the Buccaneers are equally as bad at home. The line movement is interesting though. It opened up at Atlanta +1, but despite tons of action on the visitor, Tampa is now favored by 1-2 points. This makes me think that the host is the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No emotional edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Lots of early money predictably on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 77% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won the last 5 meetings.

Mike Smith is 13-2 ATS after a loss.

Buccaneers are 3-13 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 86 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20
Buccaneers -1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 16, Falcons 13

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2)
Line: Cardinals by 3.5. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Cardinals -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Cardinals -4.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them. These are all from a user named VikeAtack.

1. “i had an account under vikeattack forgot my password made a new account under vikeatack …hope that helps you out some i am a bad speller ill amit that ,,but i can spell attack thanks …. goodluck”

So, you can spell “attack,” but not “admit” or “I’ll.” How am I not surprised?

2. “i hate to pull for the Saints but it will help my Vikings bad thing is it will hurt the Panthers who i allso like … BUT ITS THE GUMMIE BEARS SOOOO…. GO SAINTS GO THEN DIE ……”

It’s always a life-or-death matter when delicious gummie bears are involved.

3. “i hope the Falcons win it will help my vikings bad thing is it will hurt the panthers … BUT ITS THE GUMMIE BEARS HAHAHA GO DIRTY BIRDS THEN DIE HAHAHA”

This guy is so serious about gummie bears. I can only imagine how he feels about Swedish Fish.

OK, so VikeAtack is clearly nuts, right? Let’s take a gander at his profile:

This guy loves sci-fi westerns? Is there a version of Star Wars where Yoda and Han Solo square off in a quickdraw that I didn’t know about?

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I can’t imagine how frustrating it would be for Seahawk fans right now if there weren’t a prospect like Andrew Luck available in the upcoming draft. The offense is horrendous. The line can’t block, the receivers can’t catch, and Tarvaris Jackson can’t do anything right.

I don’t get why Pete Carroll continues to back Jackson even though every single football fan in America knows that the former Viking quarterback is the worst starter in the NFL. I mean, not that it matters. The offensive line is in shambles, so it couldn’t block for Charlie Whitehurst anyway.

Perhaps Seattle will have better fortune this week. Arizona’s 27th-ranked YPA has come after struggling to stop Cam Newton and Rex Grossman. Its 21st-ranked run defense isn’t much better, though I wouldn’t have any faith in Marshawn Lynch doing anything productive.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kevin Kolb has been pretty mediocre overall thus far, but give him credit for this – when opposing defenses have blown a coverage, he’s been able to hit his receivers for long gains. An intoxicated Derek Anderson had no chance of doing this last year.

Kolb figures to see plenty of busted coverages against a Seattle secondary that ranks 25th in terms of YPA despite the fact that one of its opponents thus far was Alex Smith. Kolb should have a clean pocket – the Seahawks have just two sacks on the year – so there won’t be any excuses for another so-so performance.

One area in which Seattle’s defense excels is against the run. Thanks to all the big bodies the defense employs up front, the team ranks seventh versus the rush (3.3 YPC). Chris Wells has been great this year, but he won’t have much running room Sunday afternoon.

RECAP: The Seahawks have looked pretty terrible through two weeks of the 2011 season, but they haven’t played at home yet. They’re a much different team at Qwest Field, which is one of the premier home-field advantages in the NFL.

I’m not going to lay multiple units with this crappy Seattle squad, but I definitely think that taking the host is the right thing to do in this situation – especially with the pedestrian Cardinals having no business being favored by more than field goal on the road following a loss.

LOCKED IN: The sharps are all over the Seahawks. Get +3.5 while you still can (on Bodog, with -105 juice to boot).

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No emotional edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Why would the average bettor want anything to do with the Seahawks?

Percentage of money on Arizona: 75% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Seahawks have won the last 2 meetings.

Third Time’s a Charm: 0-2 Teams that made the playoffs the previous year are 13-7 ATS in Week 3 since 2003 (7-3 as favorites).

Seahawks are 15-4 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Rain, 60 degrees, Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 23
Seahawks +3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 13, Cardinals 10

Green Bay Packers (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1)
Line: Packers by 4. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Packers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Packers -3.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “When I’m bored I lay on the floor and pretend i’m a carrot. try it”

Hmm… sounds like fun, but I’ll pass.

2. “its pretty sad that i know no one on your def…. HAHAHAHA YOU GUYS HAVE NO ONE GOOD HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH”

BUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHAHHAHA

3. “i like sport like football.like watching sports on tv”

I on GameCenter. I like caveman talk like caveman talking like caveman.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I really didn’t like Jay Cutler’s body language in the Saints game. Cutler was getting hit and/or sacked relentlessly, and unlike the Week 1 contest against Atlanta, he didn’t even get a chance to hold on to the ball too long. New Orleans defenders were in his face before he could even complete his drop-back. Cutler clearly wasn’t a fan of this, throwing his helmet down in frustration and yelling at teammates on the sideline. It was a mess.

I don’t like Chicago’s mindset going into this game. Gabe Carimi is out, so a frustrated Cutler has to battle a fierce Green Bay front seven without the services of his starting right tackle. This can’t possibly end well.

The one piece of good news for the Bears is that Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins is out for the year. The Packers were already having issues in coverage, so Cutler should be able to torch Green Bay’s secondary – if he has the time in the pocket, of course.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It was a frustrating day for the Packers this past Sunday. The Panthers held the ball for what seemed like an eternity on the first drive, and then were able to recover a Randall Cobb fumble on the kickoff following the Cam Newton touchdown to Brandon LaFell. A Carolina field goal later, and the Packers went three-and-out, giving the Panthers the ball again.

The point is that the Packers barely had the ball in the first quarter – and yet they still scored 30 points. Aaron Rodgers has played out of his mind dating back to that Week 16 blowout against the Giants last year. It’s tough bet against him in this matchup, especially after watching the Bears struggle against Drew Brees last week. Brees moved the chains at will on a Chicago defense that should have been fired up to play for Brian Urlacher in the wake of his mother’s passing.

One odd thing is that the Bears have been dreadful versus the run in these first two games. They rank 29th in that department, allowing a 5.4 YPC. James Starks, who will command more of a workload each week, should have a solid outing.

RECAP: As mentioned before, I don’t like Cutler’s body language. The Bears just looked dreadful at New Orleans, and if they put forth a similar effort, they won’t stand a chance against Green Bay.

I really like the Packers. They outplayed Chicago in three meetings last year, and they should be able to do the same thing again this Sunday. If you want a cool trend to go along with this selection, visiting favorites coming off a road victory are 34-19 against the spread since 2002.

LOCKED IN: I really think this spread could move up toward -6 prior to kickoff. I’d get -4 while it’s still available.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

Big revenge game for the Bears.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out whom the public was going to side with in this game.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 85% (48,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Home Team has won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

History: Jay Cutler is 1-4 vs. the Packers.

Packers are 29-15 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Bears are 7-3 ATS after giving up 30 or more points in a loss since 2005.

Jay Cutler is 26-44 ATS.

Opening Line: Packers -4.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Bears 20
Packers -4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 27, Bears 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
Line: Steelers by 10.5. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Steelers -7.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Steelers -10.5.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Good lord, the Colts suck. I wrote this in my Week 2 recaps page, but Kerry Collins was so inaccurate last week that he played as if he just walked out of a Penn State frat house. Maybe if he had some offensive line protection he’d only look buzzed, but that’s sadly not the case. Save for Anthony Castonzo, Indianapolis’ offensive front as a whole has predictably been atrocious.

I don’t know how the Colts are going to block the Steelers. I really don’t. It’s going to be a masscare. Collins will have blitzing linebackers in his face on most downs, and on the rare occasions when he won’t, he’ll just fire an ugly pass out of the reach of Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon or Dallas Clark.

Indianapolis could at least run the ball last week, which kept them in the game against Cleveland. That won’t happen again in this contest; the Steelers, as always, figure to be stout versus the run.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Colts can’t stop the run. The Steelers have Rashard Mendenhall. The end.

Sadly, it’s that simple. The best players Indianapolis has on its stop unit are Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but they can’t really be utilized if the Colts are trailing by double digits. It’ll be smooth sailing for Pittsburgh once it establishes a big lead, whether that’s by few long Mendenhall runs, or a Collins pick-six.

RECAP: I’ve picked the Colts twice thus far. I’m not making the same mistake again, even though this spread is outrageously large. There is a significant trend in Indianapolis’ favor – home underdogs that suffer a loss as a home underdog the week before often rebound in terms of covering the number – so that, and the fact that I’m not into laying a ridiculous amount of points on the road, will keep me from betting Pittsburgh. I’d still take them if I had to though.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No emotional edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

No one wants to bet on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 86% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Third Time’s a Charm: 0-2 Teams that made the playoffs the previous year are 13-7 ATS in Week 3 since 2003 (7-3 as favorites).

Steelers are 2-8 ATS on the road as favorites of -5 or more since 2006.

Steelers are 6-13 ATS as road favorites under Mike Tomlin.

Opening Line: Steelers -11.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 34, Colts 10
Steelers -10.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 39.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 23, Colts 20
MISSING

Washington Redskins (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Cowboys -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Cowboys -6.
Monday, Sept. 26, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Dallas, home of the f***ing a**hole Cowboys. They’re playing the crappy Redskins, a team my Eagles absolutely s*** on last year. Do you remember that Monday night game, guys? I splooged all over my couch watching that one!

Emmitt: Mike, there are women, children and homophobe watchin’ this game, so mine your language.

Reilly: Emmitt, I know you’re my best friend and everything, but I can’t control my emotions right now. The Cowboys f***ing suck. This guy who lives on my street is a Cowboys fan. I took a s*** in his mailbox this morning! Ha! That’ll show that f***er.

Herm: Don’t gotta poop! Don’t gotta s***! Don’t gotta drop a deuce! Don’t gotta crap! It’s just football! Just football! Just football! Just football! Respect your opponent! Respect your opponent! Respect your opponent! Respect your… uhh…

Reilly: Herm, I already pooped in your dinner last week. One more word out of you, and I’m going to take a s*** in your mouth.

Tollefson: Guys, why are we talking about poop? Look at those hot Redskin and Cowboy cheerleaders. After the game, let’s pay them to have sex with us, and then after that, we can make them cook us dinner.

Reilly: Shut up, Tollefson. What a stupid idea. Do you know which teams those cheerleaders are rooting for? The bad guys. Luckily, I strapped a bomb to my body. I’m going to run on the field in the first quarter and blow myself up, so all the Cowboys and Redskins will die! Ha! My only wish is that the stupid Giants were here too.

Emmitt: If you want to debacle the Giant, why did you not set yourself up the bomb last Monday night when the Giant battle the Ram on Monday Night Football?

Reilly: Ugh, I’m a failure! You’re right, Emmitt. I’ll wait until all three teams are in the same place at once before I kill them all.

Millen: Guys, why are we talking about bombs? Look at those hot Redskin and Cowboy players, especially that Dez Bryant. I wish I could clone myself so I could ride on him and ride under him all night long.

Reilly: You want to have sex with one of my enemies? That’s treason! One of these days, Millen, I’m going to plant a stick of dynamite in those anal kielbasas you love so much, and your entire butt hole will blow up! Ha! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DALLAS OFFENSE: There’s no line on this game as of Tuesday night because Tony Romo’s status is unknown. As you’ve probably heard by now, Romo played through a cracked rib and a punctured lung against the 49ers. Jerry Jones said he’s unsure if Romo will play. Miles Austin-Jones is also out.

The Cowboys will have to rely on Felix Jones if Romo is sidelined. Jon Kitna wasn’t too impressive at San Francisco, as he was guilty of two picks. Jones, meanwhile, also missed action because of a shoulder injury, but he’s expected to play. The Redskins, currently 25th against the run, have to be a welcome sight for Jones, who had the misfortune of battling tough Jet and 49er front sevens the past two weeks.

Washington will be praying for Kitna to start because its secondary ranks 23rd versus the pass (8.4 YPA). The Redskins can get to the quarterback though (7 sacks), as rookie Ryan Kerrigan has been awesome thus far, so that gives them a glimmer of hope if Romo suits up.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins can survive one “Bad Rex” moment. Rex Grossman has made one key mistake in each of his first two games, which is fine. Any more than that, and Washington will be in trouble.

Grossman faces a tough test against Dallas. The Cowboys currently lead in the NFL with 10 sacks. The Redskins have surrendered five themselves despite the fact that one of their opponents, Arizona, can’t get to the quarterback.

The key will be establishing Tim Hightower, so Grossman can beat Dallas’ banged-up secondary. That could be problematic though, given that the Cowboys rank third against the run.

LINE POSTED: The Cowboys are listed as -3 -125 everywhere. I’m taking the Redskins at +3 +105 for three reasons:

1. Dallas is in a tough spot. Home favorites coming off a road victory of 1-3 points perform dreadfully against the spread (24-46 ATS since 2002).

2. The Cowboys are dealing with so many injuries. Yes, Tony Romo and Dez Bryant are expected to play, but they may not be 100 percent. The team also has numerous other players out, so I think Dallas is a bit overrated, as usual.

3. These games are always close. Ten of the past 14 meetings between these two squads have been decided by six points or fewer. Seven of those contests were within a field goal.

I just wish we were getting better line value with the Redskins. I was hoping for a spread of -4.5 to -6 – I would have laid three units on that.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No emotional edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Washington: 60% (47,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Road Team has covered 6 of the past 7 meetings.

Statfox Trend: Home favorites coming off a road win of 1-3 points are 24-42 ATS since 2000.

Tony Romo is 26-17 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 10-4 ATS as a starter in September.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Cowboys 24, Redskins 23
Redskins +3 +105 (2 Units) — Correct; +$210
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 18, Redskins 16

Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games
49ers at Bengals, Patriots at Bills, Texans at Saints, Giants at Eagles, Dolphins at Browns, Broncos at Titans, Lions at Vikings, Jaguars at Panthers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Patriots -1.5, Falcons +7.5 (2 Units)

NFL Picks - Oct. 30

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 30

NFL Power Rankings - Oct. 28

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 4-3 (+$855)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 2-0 (+$900)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 8, 2024): 10-6 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 8, 2024): +$455

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 65-65-5, 50.0% (-$2,315)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 15-22, 40.5% (-$1,485)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 13-11, 54.2% (+$300)
2024 Season Over-Under: 63-59-1, 51.6% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$275

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,486-3,217-200, 52.0% (+$19,355)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,122-1,007-56 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 566-496-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,922-2,893-75 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-3	Bears: 3-4	Bucs: 5-3	49ers: 6-2
Eagles: 3-4	Lions: 6-1	Falcons: 3-5	Cardinals: 6-2
Giants: 2-5	Packers: 4-3	Panthers: 4-4	Rams: 3-4
Redskins: 2-5	Vikings: 3-4	Saints: 4-4	Seahawks: 5-2

Bills: 3-5	Bengals: 2-6	Colts: 5-3	Broncos: 6-2
Dolphins: 3-4	Browns: 2-6	Jaguars: 2-5	Chargers: 3-3
Jets: 4-4	Ravens: 4-3	Texans: 3-5	Chiefs: 2-4
Patriots: 5-2	Steelers: 2-6	Titans: 4-3	Raiders: 4-4

Divisional: 13-18 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 12-11 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 23-16 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 15-23 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 24-36 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 10-5 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 7-13 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 3-5 (2011-23: 33-37)