NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2020

Las Vegas Raiders (4-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-5)
Line: Raiders by 1. Total: 52.5.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert continued to be outstanding as a rookie last week. He didn’t have his best statistical performance, and a second-half interception he threw sparked a Denver comeback, but he played well overall considering that he was battling a strong Denver defense without two of his starting offensive linemen.

Note that I said “two” starting offensive linemen. Herbert had been playing without three blockers for most of his starts, but was able to get Bryan Bulaga back last week. It seems likely that Trai Turner could return this week as well, which would give Herbert a great advantage in this game, given that the Raiders don’t put consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Vegas doesn’t cover very well either, so Herbert will be able to connect consistently with all of his talented weapons.

The Raiders are better against the run than the pass, but they have some liabilities at linebacker that can be exposed by pass-catching backs, as well as Hunter Henry.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders may have caught a break in this game because the Chargers may be without Joey Bosa, who suffered a concussion this past week. Bosa leaving the game prematurely helped spark the Denver comeback, so Derek Carr would similarly stand to benefit if Bosa were to be sidelined.

Carr will have more time in the pocket than anticipated, especially if Trent Brown returns from his oxygen mishap. He’ll be able to find his weapons against a Charger secondary that lost Desmond King in the trade to the Titans. Carr should have success connecting with Darren Waller, who won’t have trouble getting open against a Charger linebacking corps that struggles to cover.

The Chargers are better against the run, but with the Raider offensive line mostly intact for the first time in weeks, Josh Jacobs should still have some success picking up chunks of yardage.

RECAP: I think we’re getting good line value with the Chargers. They were -3 on the advance line, and now they’ve dropped to -1 because… why? Is it the result of last week’s games, where the Chargers blew another 17-point lead, while the Raiders prevailed in Cleveland because Jarvis Landry decided to drop three touchdowns?

I’ll take the value. The computer model believes San Angeles should be favored by five, so that’s even better. Laying just one point is a gift.

My unit count will depend on the Chargers getting back Turner in addition to Bulaga. If that happens, this might be one of my top plays of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chargers have such a negative stigma attached to them right now because they blew that Denver game. I think we have to remember how competitive they’ve been against top-level opponents this year.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Saturday update for this game is a tale of two offensive lines. For the Raiders, Trent Brown is back on the Fauxvid list, while Kolton Miller is a game-time decision after failing to practice all week. The Raiders could be down three blockers. Meanwhile, the Chargers could have Trai Turner back from injury. I know, I know, this is said every week, but Anthony Lynn said Turner, who was limited in every practice, is getting healthier each day. The Chargers will be down Joey Bosa, but Melvin Ingram and Uchenna Nwosu should be able to pressure Derek Carr consistently if the two tackles are sidelined.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It’s disappointing to see that there’s sharp money on the Raiders. I don’t get it. The Chargers seem like a great play with three Raider offensive linemen set to be sidelined.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Surprise, surprise, Trai Turner is out again. Will this guy ever play? There is good news though, and that would be Kolton Miller being sidelined. I’ll take that trade, considering that the Chargers have the better pass rush. Anyway, I’m going against the sharps with a four-unit play on the Chargers. The best line is +1 -103 at Bookmaker.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-6)
Line: Steelers by 14. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 continues! Emmitt escapes Roger Goodell’s dungeon in NFL headquarters, only to see a senseless tragedy take place.

DALLAS OFFENSE: There was no spread on this game until early Tuesday afternoon because it was unclear if Andy Dalton would play. Dalton isn’t even a good option, but he’s clearly infinitely better than Ben DiNucci, who was atrocious against the Eagles. DiNucci played horribly, and yet he wasn’t even battling a good defense!

With that in mind, one has to wonder how poorly DiNucci (or fellow backup Cooper Rush) will fare against the Steelers, now that we know Dalton will be sidelined. Pittsburgh has a great matchup edge in this contest against Dallas’ injury-ravaged offensive line. The Cowboys are missing both of their tackles, so they won’t be able to block T.J. Watt or Bud Dupree.

Given the huge edge in the trenches for the Steelers, I don’t expect the Cowboys to have any sort of offensive success. This includes Ezekiel Elliott, who is not being used in the passing game for some reason.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Dallas’ defense has been abused for most of the year, but not so much last week. Carson Wentz committed four turnovers, as the Eagles needed a defensive touchdown to cover the spread against the worst quarterback to take a snap in the NFL this year.

This is because the Cowboys have gotten some reinforcements back from injury. Leighton Vander Esch, Chidobe Awuzie and Sean Lee have all returned recently, so the Cowboys won’t be as inept defensively as they were earlier in the year, provided more players don’t get hurt. This will give them a chance to slow down the Steelers a bit.

I would like to stress the word “chance” from that previous sentence. The Steelers have so much offensive firepower that it may not matter at all. Ben Roethlisberger, armed with his numerous talented receivers, will be able to throw all over the Cowboys, while James Conner will trample Dallas’ defense behind his superior offensive line.

RECAP: With Dalton officially sidelined, the Steelers are favored by 13.5. That’s a ton of points for a road team! Given how high the line is, it seems important to investigate how road favorites like this have fared over the years.

The answer is inconclusive, sort of. My database dates back to 1989, and road favorites of 13 or more are 21-22 against the spread since then. However, things have changed recently. Since the new CBA in 2010, when the worst teams have been even worse, due to a lack of practice time, road favorites of 13 or more are 6-3 against the spread. Obviously, this doesn’t tell us much because the sample size is so small, but the one take-away is that a big number like this shouldn’t preclude you from betting the favorite.

It’s obviously best to go on a case-by-case basis, and I think this case tells us that the Steelers are a good play. As I wrote earlier, I love fading horrible quarterbacks playing on awful teams. Or was it awful quarterbacks playing on horrible teams? Either way, I’m going to make a big wager against the Cowboys.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I just don’t see the Cowboys being competitive with their scrub quarterbacks. You could maybe make a case for them covering with Andy Dalton because he’s actually a professional quarterback. Garrett Gilbert and Cooper Rush are not.

SATURDAY NOTES: Garrett Gilbert will apparently be Dallas’ starting quarterback. My money was on Gilbert Gottfried, but it doesn’t matter. I worry about the Steelers’ motivation – they’re coming off big wins against the Titans and Ravens – but this should be a blowout.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m locking in this pick now. This spread is rising everywhere, and it’s difficult to find a -14 anymore. Bookmaker still has one, so I’ll bet three units at that book.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I guess I didn’t have to lock in this pick in the morning. I thought the line would continue to rise, but it has remained at -14, with -14 -103 even being available at Bookmaker. I think the reason why it has risen is because Ezekiel Elliott will be active, but that doesn’t matter to me. Elliott has seemingly quit on his team, so Dallas may have been better off with Tony Pollard starting.

Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Arizona Cardinals (5-2)
Line: Cardinals by 6. Total: 49.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called InvestScorpio. Meet the pathetic stock trader who wears women’s booty shorts and makes fat jokes!

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa saw his first action last week against the Rams. The performance was, well, lackluster at best, to put it nicely. The best way I can describe him was awkward. It didn’t seem like he was quite right. I had the same feeling when Tim Tebow played. Perhaps it’s just a thing with left-handed quarterbacks looking awkward, but Tagovailoa was putrid against the Rams. He needed to get bailed out by his defense and special teams.

That said, Tagovailoa had a very difficult matchup against the Rams. This one is much easier, especially when considering the state of the Cardinals’ pass rush. They lost Chandler Jones and Zach Allen to injury, and now they’ll be without the other starting edge rusher, Devon Kennard, because of a minor illness. Markus Golden, recently acquired from the Giants, has his work cut out for him to rattle Tagovailoa.

Assuming Tagovailoa has time, he should be able to connect early and often with his talented receivers. Arizona’s cornerbacks have struggled all year, so DeVante Parker and Preston Williams have a nice matchup edge. You also have to like Mike Gesicki’s chances.

The Cardinals should at least be able to stop the run, which isn’t very difficult against Myles Gaskin. However, Gaskin is a solid receiving option out of the backfield. He’ll continue to be a nice threat.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray is obviously the better quarterback in this contest, but he has a much more difficult matchup. Ever since stellar cornerback Byron Jones returned from injury, the Dolphins have surrendered 17, 0 and 17 points to the 49ers, Jets and Rams, respectively.

Miami has a pair of talented cornerbacks capable of shutting down almost every passing attack. It’s impossible to stop DeAndre Hopkins, but the Dolphins should be able to slow him down. Miami can also pressure the quarterback, which could force Murray into some mistakes if he’s not careful.

The weakness of the Dolphins’ defense is against the run. Arizona’s starting running back, Kenyan Drake, is out, but I consider this a good thing because it’ll give Chase Edmonds more opportunities. Edmonds is secretly the superior option, as the Cardinals’ offense has been more explosive whenever he’s been on the field. Edmonds could have a big game to make for Arizona’s impending struggles while throwing the ball. Murray’s scrambling will be a big boost as well.

RECAP: I’ve considered the Dolphins to be the most underrated team in the NFL for quite some time. They’re 4-3, and yet their losses have been to the Seahawks, Bills and Patriots (when Cam Newton was healthy). They’ve blown out the opposition in their other wins. They’re extremely well coached, and they are very strong in some areas.

With that in mind, I expect the Dolphins to keep this game close, especially with so many pass rushers missing for the Cardinals. Tagovailoa won’t have any pressure in his face, so he’ll play much better in his second start.

This spread should be closer to -3, so I’m going to bet the underdog. I suspect the two most likely results of this game are the Cardinals winning by three and the Dolphins winning by three, so we get both results if we pick Miami.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not sure why, but the computer model bumped its projection up from -5 to -8. I don’t know what that’s all about, but I still like the underrated Dolphins to cover. Tua Tagovailoa should be much better this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals have some serious defensive problems. We already knew they were down some edge rushers – Chandler Jones, Devon Kennard, Zach Allen – but now they’ll also be missing three cornerbacks: Byron Murphy, Dre Kirkpatrick and Robert Alford. DeVante Parker and Preston Williams have a major matchup edge, provided Tua Tagovailoa isn’t terrible again. I’m increasing the unit count on the Dolphins.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Wow, some sharp money came in on the Cardinals, bumping this line up to -6. We’ll see if the line keeps rising. Regardless, I still love the Dolphins. They have the coaching and injury edge by wide margins, and I think Tua Tagovailoa will play better.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps took this up to -6, but they haven’t bet the Cardinals at this number. I love the value we’re getting with the Dolphins now. The best line is +6 -105 at Bovada.

New Orleans Saints (5-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)
Line: Buccaneers by 3.5. Total: 51.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Antonio Brown is back! The Buccaneers signed Brown a couple of weeks ago, and he’ll finally be eligible to take the field in this contest. There’s always a transitional period for receivers joining new teams, but Brown is a different case because he’s one of the most talented receivers in the NFL, and he has experience playing and practicing with Tom Brady.

Brown will be needed, especially after seeing what transpiring Monday night. With Chris Godwin out, and Mike Evans hobbling with an injury, Tampa Bay’s offense was limited, even by the pathetic Giants’ defense. The Saints aren’t the 1985 Bears, or anything, but they have much better personnel than New York.

The Saints are especially stout against the run, so I wouldn’t expect much from Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones on the ground. That said, they could have some success attacking the Saints’ linebackers as receivers out of the backfield, much like David Montgomery did last week.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees has struggled lately, but it’s hard to blame him. He’s played without his top three receivers lately, as Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Marquez Callaway have been sidelined.

Something tells me that this situation will be radically different in this contest. Sanders was already due back from his minor illness, while it seemed as though Thomas was close to playing last week. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Saints simply held him out for this game, which is far more important because they’ll have a great chance to win the division if they can complete the sweep of the Buccaneers.

The one constant weapon for Brees during the previous few weeks has been Alvin Kamara, who has been tremendous. Kamara has a very difficult matchup against the Buccaneers’ elite run defense, which should play better after the low-effort showing Monday night. That said, Kamara should still have plenty of success as a receiver out of the backfield, which was the case during the Week 1 matchup.

RECAP: The Buccaneers have played terribly Monday night, which was supposed to drop this spread. The advance line was Tampa Bay -4.5. This should have created some value with the Buccaneers. Instead, the opposite happened, with the line rising to -5.5!

I’m going to take this as a sign that one of two things is happening: One, the sharps like the Buccaneers. Two, the sharps are creating phantom movement so they can get the Saints at a better number, presumbaly six.

As it stands now, I’m going to be on the Buccaneers to get revenge. It’s hard to trust the Saints after two lackluster showings against the Panthers and Bears, albeit in victories. The Buccaneers didn’t look their best versus the Giants, but they were clearly looking ahead to this game.

I may change this pick or unit count depending on the injury report, but as of now, I’m going to be on the Buccaneers for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Drew Brees popped up on the injury report with a shoulder. Maybe he’s OK, but I thought it was odd. There’s a chance he may not be 100 percent, which would obviously swing this greatly in Tampa’s favor.

SATURDAY NOTES: Drew Brees is apparently a game-day decision with a shoulder injury. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t play in an important game like this, but he probaby won’t be 100 percent. That’s a big advantage for the Buccaneers, who will be getting Chris Godwin back from injury. I’m going to put a couple of units on the Buccaneers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money has been on the Saints, but this could be a situation to set up a better number on the Buccaneers. We’ll see. I’m still planning on betting the Buccaneers for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve bet on three quarterbacks who have suffered injuries today, so why not make it four? You’ve been warned, Tom Brady! Then again, the Buccaneers will probably drop two touchdowns in six seconds like the Chargers just did. It was one of those days where everything went wrong, but maybe the Buccaneers will help us rebound a bit. The sharps have been betting the Saints aggressively, but this pick looks much different at -3. The best vig out there is at Bookmaker (-117). I’m still betting two units on Tampa.

New England Patriots (2-5) at New York Jets (0-8)
Line: Patriots by 9.5. Total: 41.
Monday, Nov. 9, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New York where in tonight’s game, the New England Patriots take on the New York Giants. Guys, we broadcasted this game last year and Sam Donald was heard that he was seeing ghosts. Guys, I have to admit something. I see dead people, too. I’m like that guy in the movie, the Seventh Sense.

Emmitt: Brown, you got the name of the show wrong. The movie call Ninth Sense because the number ninth come after the number fourth. But I digest. I see ghosts too as well. When somebody comed to my house for Halloween, most of hims usually people dress in Halloween costume but some white ghost with holes in the eye. And that is how I know I see unalive people.

Reilly: Emmitt, those are people just wearing ghost costumes. I see real ghosts! I have the seventh sense!

Tollefson: Kevin, consider yourself lucky that you see dead people. I wish I could see dead women. If I could, I’d kidnap them and have them cook and clean naked for me. And because they’re dead, they’d never get tired!

Reilly: Tolly, Mother says I’m too young to talk to women ghosts. I need to go through pubrity first, even though I’m 67!

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I’ve heard some talk about fourth, seventh and ninth. Those are both numbers. Because, when you look at them, you can put them in a number order. Fourth comes first, and then seventh and then ninth. Because fourth is the first one, and then seventh is the second one, and then ninth is the third one. That’s because the first one is four, and the second one is seven, and the third one is ninth. It’s a good thing that there isn’t a fourth that’s the fourth because that would be confusing because we wouldn’t know which fourth is fourth because fourth and fourth are the same, but fourth and fourth are also different.

Reilly: Ugh, no one cares, Jason Whitman! No one likes you! Go away!

Fouts: Kevin, you say no one likes you, but you’re the only one no one likes. And here’s what I mean by no one likes you. There is no person in this room who likes you. And here’s what I mean by room. We’re in this room, which is a box with lots of room for us to sit and stand in. And here’s what I mean by sit…

Wolfley: DAN, YOU BETTER BE CAREFUL WITH THE DEFINITION OF THE WORD ROOM. I HEARD THAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT GHOSTS, AND IF A GHOST ENTERS THE ROOM, YOU BETTER HAVE A GORILLA WITH FOUR EYEBALLS AND A VACUUM CLEANER FOR A NOSE IF YOU WANT TO GET OUT OF THAT SITUATION!

Reilly: Shut up, Wolfley, and don’t mention vacuuming because then Mother will make me vacuum the house, and if I don’t, I won’t get macaroni and cheese for dinner! New Daddy, please don’t let Mother make me vacuum again!

Cutler: Dude, if you don’t vacuum, your mom will make me do it, and I don’t feel like doing anything.

Reilly: But New Daddy! If I have to vacuum, then I won’t be able to talk to my ghost friends!!!

Alyssa Milano: What is this talk about men not wanting to vacuum? Umm, excuse me!? Why is it that women always have to clean the house? Can’t men do it sometimes? And let’s be careful here classifying people as men and women because they might be other! I even did it, so I’m going to report myself for a hate crime! Hello, 9-1-1! I’d like to report a hate crime! Also, I hate the cops, so can you send social workers instead?

Tollefson: Stupid girl. Doesn’t she know that women are the only ones who can cook and clean, especially when naked?

Reilly: Tolly, please, I really don’t want to get grounded. Then Mother really won’t let me speak to ghosts!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like we’re talking about super-natural beings, Kevin. Let’s name some super-natural beings, Kevin. Let’s begin with ghosts, Kevin. We’ve already talked about ghosts, Kevin, so we probably should’ve begun with something else, Kevin. Let’s chat about poltergeists then, Kevin. What about specters, Kevin? Let’s discuss phantoms, Kevin. How about phantasms, Kevin? Don’t forget about spirits, Kevin. And of course, we can’t leave out Bruce Willis, Kevin. Because Bruce Willis was dead at the end of Sixth Sense, Kevin.

Reilly: WHAT!? WHY WOULD YOU SPOIL IT FOR ME! MOTHER MADE ME WATCH UNTIL IT WAS REVEALED THE KID COULD SEE GHOSTS, AND SHE SAID IT WAS TOO SCARY FOR ME AND THAT I WOULD HAVE TO WAIT TO WATCH THE END UNTIL I WAS GROWN UP! I HATE YOU, AHHHH!!! We’ll be back after this!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Cam Newton looked like a horse on its way to the glue factory against the 49ers a couple of weeks ago. Jacob Camenker re-tweeted out a video where Newton was shown banging his hand on the helmet of a Denver player in the prior game. Newton clearly wasn’t healthy versus San Francisco, so I wondered when his hand would feel better. I also said I’d like to bet the Patriots over the Bills if I knew Newton were healthy. Unfortunately, it’s harder to get information out of the Patriots than the Chinese government.

Well, we saw Newton do better against the Bills. His passes actually had zip on them, which we hadn’t seen versus Denver and San Francisco. I think we can confidently say that Newton’s hand is healthy now. With that in mind, Newton shouldn’t have any issues torching the Jets. New York has major problems in its secondary, and it doesn’t have much of a pass rush, so this is Newton’s easiest matchup of the year.

The Jets are better against the run because they have nice talent on the defensive line, so I wouldn’t expect Damien Harris to rush for 100 yards again. However, both Newton and James White should be able to abuse the Avery Williamson-less linebacking corps with their scrambles and receptions out of the backfield, respectively.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It sounds like Joe Flacco will start this game. Sam Darnold was injured late in last week’s blowout, which makes one wonder why Darnold was scrambling around when down 35-9.

It’s not like it matters anyway. Darnold stinks, and so does Flacco. Darnold is the superior option, but choosing between the two is like deciding whether to ingest feces or drink urine. There is no way to win in that scenario, and the Jets don’t stand a chance either way.

The big question regarding the Jets’ offense is if Jamison Crowder will play. Crowder is the Jets’ lone play-maker. If he can suit up, the Jets will move the chains and score some points. If not, they won’t cross midfield very often.

RECAP: The Jets have covered the spread only once this year. They did so in Week 7 versus Buffalo when the Bills outgained them, 422-190. The Bills simply made some mistakes in New York territory and settled for too many field goals. And yet, they still won by eight, which would cover this spread.

The Patriots should cover. The only way they don’t is if they pull a Buffalo and simply shoot themselves in the foot too many times. I’m willing to bet that they don’t, given that they’re desperate to avoid a 2-6 record.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Patriots have lost two games with an injured Cam Newton (Broncos, 49ers), and they nearly won two other games (Seahawks, Bills). Had the two Newton-injury games not happened, and had the Patriots won the close games, they’d be 4-1 right now. A 4-1 team would be -10 at the very least at these sorry Jets, so I think this spread is too small.

SATURDAY NOTES: Joe Flacco will play, and I’d say he qualifies as a horrible quarterback on an awful team. I’m fading the Jets, but the problem is this spread has risen to -10. I still love the Patriots, even at that number, but I wish we could have gotten -7.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may lock in this pick Monday morning because the spread keeps rising. I don’t want to miss out on -10.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were betting the Patriots all the way from -7 to -9.5. They stopped at -10, and some pro money even came in on the Jets at +10. Regardless, I’m still on the Patriots for three units. I thought about dropping this to two units, but Quinnen Williams is out, which is huge because the Jets are now missing so many defensive players. This should be a blowout. The best line is -9.5 -106 at Bookmaker.