NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2021

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
Line: Vikings by 4. Total: 44.
Thursday, Dec. 9, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Week 13 Analysis: We had a great week heading into Monday night. Unfortunately, the Bills ruined it with their mistakes and poor game plan. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Texans, 4 units (loss): I don’t think I was wrong to bet the Texans, but the unit count shouldn’t have been as high. This spread didn’t make much sense, but the Texans killed their chances of covering when they committed two turnovers in their first five offensive snaps. Then again, I guess this is what bad teams do. Tyrod Taylor’s injury in the third quarter prevented any potential back-door cover.

Chargers, 5 units (win): I thought the Chargers were going to blow their 24-0 lead. That would’ve been an all-time bad beat. Thankfully, this didn’t happen.

Giants, 4 units (loss): I liked the Giants against the Dolphins’ blitz-heavy defense because Mike Glennon was starting over Daniel Jones. Glennon was guilty of just one turnover, whereas Jones likely would’ve imploded. The Giants didn’t cover because Kenny Golladay got hurt and the rest of the receivers/running backs dropped six passes. I still firmly believe I was on the right side because of the unjustified line movement.

Steelers, 4 units (win): The Ravens suffered so many injuries to cornerbacks. I have to believe the Ravens would have won if this didn’t happen, though that doesn’t necessarily mean they would’ve covered the -4.

Rams, 3 units (win): This was never in doubt once the Rams got rolling in the second half.

Seahawks, 4 units (win): This was the one win I probably should’ve lost because the 49ers outgained the Seahawks and averaged 1.7 more yards per play.

Bills, 5 units (loss): Stefon Diggs dropped a touchdown, and Dawson Knox dropped two third-down receptions. Conversely, the Patriots hit their one big play. This feels like a game we would have won last year. Also, why didn’t the Bills figure out that Allen would be able to use his arm strength to cut through the wind until they absolutely had to throw? Their decision to run so much was asinine.

We still had a winning week, but the Bills ruined what would’ve been a tremendous result. Perhaps we’ll get one in Week 14!

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steeler reporters discussed becoming more of a pass-heavy offense, which worked against the Ravens. Baltimore was already a pass-funnel defense, and it became even worse versus aerial attacks when they lost several cornerbacks.

This strategy won’t be as effective against the Vikings if Eric Kendricks returns from injury. Kendricks was out last week, but the Vikings may have sat him in anticipation of this contest. Kendricks is the heart and soul of the Minnesota defense. He gives the Vikings a good chance of defending the middle of the field, which will be crucial against Pat Freiermuth and Najee Harris.

With that in mind, the Vikings should continue to play well versus the pass. They have the league’s No. 2 pressure rate, and the Steelers can’t block very well, so this seems like a great edge for them.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings match up well against the Steelers on this side of the ball as well. Pittsburgh’s run defense has been exposed in recent weeks, first against the Lions in the tie, and then at Cincinnati in a horrible blowout. Even Devonta Freeman looked like the spry runner from 2015 against them this past Sunday.

Dalvin Cook won’t play, but the Vikings will still be able to trample the Steelers with Alexander Mattison. The talented reserve had a strong performance this past week even though the Vikings trailed for most of the afternoon. He’ll be even better in this matchup.

The Vikings won’t be able to pass as well if Adam Thielen is sidelined. Thielen got hurt last week, so Kirk Cousins may not have his usual arsenal on a short week. Cousins figures to see lots of pressure if Christian Darrisaw is sidelined again.

RECAP: The Vikings were -4 on the advance line, but because they suffered a loss without the heart and soul of their defense in an obvious look-ahead situation, this spread has fallen to -3.

I love the value we’re getting in Minnesota, especially with it having some nice matchup edges in this contest. That said, I won’t have much interest in betting the Vikings if Kendricks is out again because their defense is so much different with him off the field. In fact, I may switch to Pittsburgh if Kendricks is sidelined.

Our Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Vikings won’t have Adam Thielen or Christian Darrisaw, but the important thing for me is that they will have their linebackers on the field, including Eric Kendricks. With Kendricks, Minnesota will be able to defend the middle of the field, which is where the Steelers tend to attack. However, I wonder if the Vikings’ pass rush, diminished by the absences of Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, will be able to rattle Roethlisberger. I think I’m going to join the sharps and pick the Steelers for a small wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Steelers earlier in the week, but pro money has come in on the Vikings in the past couple of hours. This spread is now +3.5 in all sportsbooks, though you can buy up to +4 for -116 vig at Bookmaker, which seems like a decent deal. I’m going to bet a unit on the Steelers at that price. I’m not in love with this game, but the Vikings are missing key personnel, so this will likely be a close contest.

Las Vegas Raiders (6-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
Line: Chiefs by 9.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: As someone with a divisional futures bet on Kansas City, it was disappointing to see the Chiefs struggle offensively this past Sunday night. The winds played a factor, but the Chiefs dropped four passes, one of which turned into an interception. These were the sort of mistakes Kansas City was making prior to its victory over the Raiders, which also occurred on a Sunday night.

Patrick Mahomes ripped through the Raiders’ defense for five touchdowns in that game, so we know what he’s capable of if his team doesn’t make mistakes. Tyreek Hill had a great performance, and Travis Kelce has an amazing matchup against a defense that can’t defend the middle of the field. However, if the Chiefs commit more drops, it won’t matter.

The Chiefs could perhaps remove these negative plays by feeding the ball to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams. The Raiders have a below-average run defense, so they may give up big gains on the ground, given that they’ll be worried about Mahomes and his arsenal.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders did a good job of keeping up with the Chiefs in that aforementioned Sunday night game until DeSean Jackson committed an inexplicable fumble after catching a deep pass. This put the Raiders too far behind, meaning they couldn’t run the ball.

Javonte Williams just had a big game against the Chiefs, exposing a leaky run defense that’s 28th in the NFL. If the Raiders can hang around, Josh Jacobs figures to have a big game. Jacobs was a huge part of the passing attack last week as well in the wake of Kenyan Drake’s injury. We just saw Williams have success as a receiver out of the backfield versus this defense.

The Raiders will need Jacobs to draw attention away from the Chiefs because Kansas City has the league’s No. 3 pressure rate. This doesn’t bode well for the Raiders because Derek Carr’s offensive line is rather dreadful.

RECAP: I really wonder how motivated the Chiefs will be in this game. They’re huge favorites over a team they crushed a few weeks ago following a victory on national TV. After this game, they have to battle the Chargers for first place in the division – and that game is in just four days!

Despite what the Chiefs did to the Raiders in that Sunday night demolition, they haven’t been scoring enough to warrant being such large favorites over a team that can compete against them. Here are their point totals in recent games, excluding the win over the Raiders: 22, 19, 13, 20 and 3. If the Chiefs get to the upper end of that spectrum, 22, all the Raiders need is 13 to cover this spread, which they should be able to achieve because of the matchup advantage on the ground.

I’m going to bet on the Raiders. This isn’t one of my favorite picks this week, but I plan on wagering at least a couple of units on the Raiders.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Raiders were one of the only teams not to play the cover-2 shell against the Chiefs. I wonder if they’ve learned their lesson. If not, this could be a blowout.

SATURDAY NOTES: If the Chiefs weren’t in such an obvious look-ahead spot, I’d like them quite a bit against the Raiders, who will be missing Denzel Perryman, their primary linebacker. However, there’s a decent chance Kansas City will have one eye on the Chargers matchup in four days. I’m going to switch my pick to the Chiefs, but I won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line dipped a bit with some sharp money on the Raiders, perhaps because of L’Jarius Sneed’s absence. However, the Chiefs are getting Rashad Fenton back, so their defense won’t take much of a hit. I still like the Chiefs a bit, but not enough to bet them.

New Orleans Saints (5-7) at New York Jets (3-9)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 42.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 36-30 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Cardinals -7.5

Ravens -3.5

Eagles -5

Colts -10

Rams -14

The highest-bet teams were 4-1 this past week, so the sportsbooks lost money.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Cardinals -3

Packers -12.5

Seahawks -7.5

There are only three games with lopsided action, which is unusual.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I thought we were getting a nice value bet with the Saints this past Thursday, but that went out the window in the wake of Taysom Hill’s finger injury. Hill still ran well, but his accuracy worsened as the night progressed. He ultimately finished with four interceptions, negating any chance at a back-door cover.

It seems as though Hill will start this week, as Adam Schefter reported that he will try to play through the injury. We saw Russell Wilson deal with an injured middle finger in his first few starters back from his hiatus, and it wasn’t pretty. It’s highly unlikely that Hill’s finger will magically heal, so he won’t be able to expose the Jets’ secondary like he normally would.

The Jets are at their weakest defending the middle of the field, as we saw last week when they left Dallas Goedert wide open repeatedly. The Saints don’t have a healthy tight end capable of capitalizing on this, but Alvin Kamara figures to be back this week. Kamara will have some big gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Zach Wilson started the game well last week, engineering three touchdown drives in the opening half, but ultimately failing following intermission. Battling the Eagles was a tough spot for him because Philadelphia ranks 12th in pressure rate, and as we all know, young quarterbacks struggle the most when dealing with a heavy pass-rushing presence.

Luckily for Wilson, the Saints are much worse in that regard. Only three teams (Texans, Bears, Colts) generate less pressure on the quarterback than the Saints. This is part of the reason why New Orleans surrenders so many big plays in the passing game, outside of outputs to No. 1 receivers. The Saints can shut down the opposing top threat – Elijah Moore in this matchup – but Wilson should be able to connect with Jamison Crowder, Braxton Berrios and Ryan Griffin consistently.

The Saints are at their best stopping the run, but the Jets don’t exactly lean on the ground attack very much. That’s especially true with Michael Carter sidelined, as Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson and Austin “Don’t Call Me Andrew” Walter aren’t threats to anyone.

RECAP: I think I’d consider being on the Saints if they had a healthy Hill at the helm this week, but that’s not the case. We’re either going to get a one-dimensional quarterback who throws four interceptions, or we’ll see Trevor Siemian starting. Siemian is a passable quarterback, but is not worthy of being a 5.5-point favorite. I don’t think he should be favored by this many points against anyone.

I like the Jets to cover this high spread. Wilson won’t be as mistake-prone with the Saints not putting as much pressure on him, so I think he’ll be able to score enough points to stay within the number, thanks to the Saints being so limited offensively. New Orleans simply isn’t built to cover high spreads like this. Remember, the Saints lost to the Falcons at home as six-point favorites, and that was with a healthy quarterback!

I was hoping to get +6 because six is such a key number. The sharps have dropped this line to +5.5, but I still like the Jets quite a bit. I’m warning you: This is going to be an ugly week with some ugly big-unit selections, and this is just the first.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Elijah Moore missed Wednesday’s practice, which wouldn’t be a huge deal if Corey Davis weren’t already ruled out. I don’t think I could bet the Jets if they’re down their top two receivers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Elijah Moore likely won’t play, which means the Jets will probably be missing their top two receivers. This puts them in a tough spot against the Saints’ defense. I still like the Jets because Taysom Hill won’t be able to throw very well, but with Alvin Kamara, Terron Armstead and Marcus Davenport set to return, the Jets don’t look nearly as appealing anymore.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Elijah Moore has been placed on injured reserve. The Jets will be missing their top two receivers, which will make it difficult for them to cover this spread. I’m not going to bet this game after all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve decided not to bet this game, but if you want to, you can get +6 at BetUS. There was sharp action on the Jets at +6 earlier in the week, but not at +5.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) at Tennessee Titans (8-4)
Line: Titans by 9. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:

Here’s a guy who lost money going against me, all while posting nonsense:



I never thought I’d see people defend Daniel Jones at all, but we found the one galaxy-brain person to do it.

Here’s another white man who wants to steal from Native Americans:



I will reach maximum troll level once I begin using the term “Redskins Football Team” all the time. I’m not quite there yet, but I will be one day.

Here are people who have not taken my medical advice regarding hazmat suits, and why I, as a doctor, believe they should be mandatory for those who are afraid of the President Xi virus:



To recap Thrillhouse’s week, he ranted about the difference between Daniel Jones and Mike Glennon, then lost money betting against my picks, and then killed a bunch of old people. What a week!

And finally, here’s our friend Frank Sebastiano, who wants my unborn son to kill me because he disagree with my belief that President Donald Trump isn’t an authoritarian:



Imagine being evil enough to wish someone’s child killed them and then laughing at the possibility. When my son is old enough to understand things, I can point to people like Frank and tell him to stay away from bad guys like Frank.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans have had nothing on offense in recent weeks, but that’ll change this Sunday when they’ll get Julio Jones back from injury. Jones will give Ryan Tannehill a viable receiving threat, so that he doesn’t only have to throw to Nick Westbrook, Dez Fitzpatrick and Chester Rogers.

The issue is that Jones is no longer the dominant threat he once was. He’s still a solid receiver, but his return won’t be as impactful as Derrick Henry or A.J. Brown coming back to action. If Jacksonville’s top cornerback, Shaq Griffin, can return from his two-game absence, the Jaguars will be able to deal with Jones, all while harassing Tannehill. They have the No. 11 pressure rate in the NFL.

The Jaguars are at their weakest on this side of the ball when defending the middle of the field. This is not something the Titans exploit very well. Perhaps Dontrell Hilliard will have some nice receptions out of the backfield, but Tennessee doesn’t use its tight ends as receiving threats very often.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence continued to struggle last week, though he was in a very difficult matchup against the Rams. He could have easily been forced into three interceptions, but the Los Angeles defenders dropped those potential picks.

Lawrence’s outlook will depend on how much pressure he’ll see. The Titans don’t blitz often, and they get to the quarterback at an average rate, so this bodes well for the rookie. However, it should be noted that this won’t prevent Lawrence from having miscommunications with his receivers, which happens at a high clip. Lawrence will need to be better with James Robinson going up against a top-10 NFL rush defense.

RECAP: Julio Jones’ return prevents the Titans from being an auto-fade at this number this week, but I’m still going against them. They are way too limited offensively to be favored by close to double digits. Mike Vrabel is 3-6 against the spread as a favorite of a touchdown or more for a reason, and many of those results included having Henry in the backfield!

Since the Titans lost Henry and Brown, they’ve scored 13 points in both of their games. One was against the Patriots, but the other was versus the lowly Texans. Even if the Titans get a defensive score like a pick-six, that’ll bring them to 20 in this spot, and all Jacksonville will need to do is generate 11 points to cover the spread. They scored 19 on Tennessee back in Week 5, so if they match that point total, the Henry- and Brown-less Titans will need 29 points to cover, which seems like a tall task.

I plan on betting the Jaguars, and my unit count will be rather high if they get top cornerback Shaq Griffin back from injury. This is ugly pick No. 2.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped all the way to +8.5, as there has been plenty of public action on the Jaguars. The DVOA numbers say this line should only be Tennessee -7.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars will have their top cornerback, Shaq Griffin, returning this week, which is a huge deal with Julio Jones set to play again. This line is way too high for a Tennessee team that seldom covers as a large favorite. However, there are major locker room problems surfacing regarding Urban Meyer. Most of the time, stuff like this is overblown. However, given how Meyer’s incompetence and prior off-the-field issues, I think it’s legit. Thus, I’m going to drop my unit count.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were betting the Jaguars earlier in the week when the spread was +10 and +10.5. They haven’t touched them at this number, and I don’t blame them. Urban Meyer called his assistant coaches “losers” and has clashed with some of his players. The Jaguars will try hard sometimes, but they’ll quit in a few games because they won’t want to play for this idiot. I’m not going to bet the Jaguars.

Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (6-6)
Line: Browns by 2.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The last team the Browns took the field, they were battling the Ravens. This matchup will be quite different than that one, as the Ravens suffered multiple injuries this past Sunday. The most prominent player to get hurt was Marlon Humphrey, who is now out for the season. This means Baltimore won’t have its two best cornerbacks any longer with Marcus Peters also gone.

Most teams will be able to take advantage of this, but the Browns have one of the weakest receiving corps in the NFL. Jarvis Landry is a good player, but he plays in the slot, and Baltimore still has Tavon Young to defend that area. The outside receivers are Donovan Peoples-Jones and, well, no one else of note. Peoples-Jones could have a big catch or two, given that the Ravens allow lots of explosive plays in the passing game, but it’s not something that’s going to be reliable for the Browns.

Also, it’s unclear if Baker Mayfield will be 100 percent. He’s had a week off to heal, but he wasn’t nearly 100 percent the last time he was on the field. Mayfield relied on his tight ends in Baltimore, as the Ravens also happen to be weak against those. Running on the Ravens will be more difficult, but Kareem Hunt should have some decent gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson made an amazing play the last time he battled the Browns where he drifted back in the pocket for what seemed like a mile and then heaved a touchdown pass to Mark Andrews. This ended up winning that game, though Jackson tried to do the same thing last week versus the Steelers and was intercepted.

Jackson threw four interceptions against the Browns, which wasn’t an accident. Jackson hasn’t been protected very well lately, and he has made mistakes as a result. With the Browns having an extra week to prepare for Jackson, that should happen again.

Jackson was able to lean on Devonta Freeman at Pittsburgh, thanks to the Steelers’ poor rushing attack. That won’t work as well in this contest, given that the Browns have a top-10 run defense.

RECAP: There’s major sharp action driving up this spread closer to -3. There will be some appealing value with Baltimore at +3, but at -2.5, the Browns seem like the definite play.

Baltimore has so many injuries. The team’s defenders went down like flies against the Steelers, with the worst loss being Humphrey at the end. With Humphrey and Peters now gone, the Ravens have a huge hole in the secondary that the Browns might be able to exploit if Mayfield is healthier coming off the bye. Mayfield struggled in games prior to the week off, but he’s had extra time to heal. That should pay dividends this week.

The Browns nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore. They’ve had a week off to think of nothing but how to beat their rival because in a scheduling oddity, they play them again. The Ravens will have a weakened roster compared to what they had in Week 12, so this figures to give Cleveland a big advantage. The Browns, as a result, are worth some sort of wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens were missing some defensive backs in Wednesday’s practice, which is obviously a huge problem because they’re already down three starters in the secondary, including their top two cornerbacks.

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only will the Ravens be down their top two cornerbacks; they’ll also be missing Patrick Mekari, which means their offensive line will be without multiple starters as well versus Cleveland’s defensive front. I’m going to increase the unit count to three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Ravens will be missing Jimmy Smith on top of their other cornerbacks. This team is a mess defensively, and their offense is missing multiple offensive linemen. The sharps bet Cleveland at -1 to -2.5, but there’s been nothing at +3. The best line is Browns -2.5 -119 at Bookmaker, followed by -2.5 -120 at BetUS/FanDuel.

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Line: Panthers by 2.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton will make another start, and he can’t possibly be worse than he was against Miami. Newton self-destructed with some horrible turnovers and barely completed any passes. Much of this occurred with Christian McCaffrey on the field. McCaffrey is now out for the year, which will severely diminish the Panthers’ offense even further.

But Newton has to bounce back, right? He’s playing the Falcons, after all! I wouldn’t be so sure. Atlanta’s defense has improved a bit lately, thanks to A.J. Terrell’s emergence. The second-year pro has established himself as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. He’ll handle D.J. Moore, meaning the Panthers will have to look elsewhere offensively.

The Falcons are still very weak when defending the middle of the field, which we saw this past Sunday when Tom Brady torched their defense with constant big gains to Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. Who do the Panthers have to attack this area? Tommy Tremble? Ameer Abdullah? Brandon Zylstra? These guys suck, and it won’t help that Newton will be throwing the ball to them.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons won’t have tremendous success while possessing the ball either. The Panthers have a terrific pass rush, which is problematic for Atlanta because Matt Ryan isn’t well protected.

Most of Ryan’s weapons will be smothered as well. Kyle Pitts had his worst output of the year against the Panthers back in Week 8, catching just two passes for 13 yards. Russell Gage won’t be able to get open either.

However, the Falcons will have some success moving the chains with Cordarrelle Patterson. The Panthers have a sub-par run defense, so Patterson will have success picking up gains on the ground.

RECAP: Neither offense will have much success in this game. This will be a low-scoring grinder, which automatically makes me gravitate toward the underdog.

Newton being favored again doesn’t surprise me. The sportsbooks believe the public wants to bet Newton, who might just be a colossal money pit based on how bad he has been. This spread doesn’t make much sense, as the Panthers are favored by as many points over the Falcons as they were versus the Redskins, and yet they had McCaffrey available versus Washington.

I may consider a bet on the Falcons if this line gets to +3.5. The advance spread was +2.5, so we would be getting some value. However, I find it difficult to bet a bad team like the Falcons unless we’re getting a full key number, which is not the case at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have brought this down to +2.5. I’m not going to panic bet the Falcons here, as the line could go back up. We might be able to bet up to +3 for a reasonable price.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers, under a new offensive coordinator, have stated that they want to run the ball very frequently in this game. They’ve even discussed utilizing Phillip Walker at times. The problem is that they’re missing three starters on the offensive line. There’s a reason the sharps are on the Falcons. I think they’re worth a decent-sized play as long as a viable +3 is available.

TEASER ADDED: I’m teasing the Falcons +8.5 with the Seahawks -2.5. Matt Ryan seldom gets blown out, as he’s the king of garbage time, so I expect this game to be close. The Seahawks, meanwhile, may not cover at Houston, but they should be able to win outright.

FOR-FUN PARLAY ADDED: Once again, I’m putting the alternate lines of my top picks into a for-fun parlay. This is a six-teamer comprised of the Falcons +4.5, Cowboys -2.5, Broncos moneyline, Giants +11.5, Bills +4.5 and Bears +13.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Falcons at +3, but not at +2.5. You can still get a viable +3 (-118 vig) at Bookmaker. With the Panthers getting their left tackle back from injury, this will be a two-unit pick.

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Washington Redskins (6-6)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys were a bit sloppy offensively against the Saints, but they had gotten all of their players back from injury for the first time, so everyone was a bit rusty. It shouldn’t take too long for the entire offense to get in rhythm.

This seems like a great opportunity for Dallas to do so. The Redskins surrender huge plays in the passing game because their secondary has been awful this year. That doesn’t bode well in this matchup, as Dak Prescott will deliver deep bombs to his talented receivers.

The Redskins are much better against the run, so Ezekiel Elliott will once again underperform. Elliott hasn’t played well in weeks, and the Cowboys should consider completely resting him. Tony Pollard is the best back at this point anyway.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, the Redskins will be able to establish Antonio Gibson. The second-year back has enjoyed some terrific performances lately, and that could continue against a Dallas ground defense ranked in the bottom half of the league.

The Redskins will need Gibson to thrive in order to keep the ball away from the Cowboys. That could be the only way Washington slows down Dallas’ aerial assault. The Redskins have been great at winning the time-of-possession battle, as Taylor Heinicke has been brilliant on third downs lately. Washington is able to remain on the field for an eternity and frustrate opposing offenses.

The Cowboys, however, have the No. 2 third-down defense in the NFL. Only the Ravens allow fewer third-down conversions, so this is an area the Cowboys can win. They’ll be able to force Heinicke off the field, especially now that Heinicke won’t have Logan Thomas at his disposal.

RECAP: I was surprised to see the sharps jump on the Redskins because I believe the Cowboys’ offense matches up well against the Washington defense. Dallas’ deep passing attack should expose the opposing secondary, though the Redskins could control the clock with their running game if the Cowboys’ third-down defense doesn’t live up to its billing.

I like the Cowboys to cover this spread, but not enough to bet this game. However, given that the pros are betting the Redskins, we may see a -3 much later in the week. If so, I’ll definitely consider a wager on Dallas.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It appears as though the sharp action on the Redskins has ceased – at least for now. The Washington +3.5 lines have disappeared, and the line has popped up to +4.5, as professional bets have come in on Dallas. I wonder if the apparent pro movement on the Redskins was actually phantom action to get a better line on Dallas, which makes sense to me because this line seems low. In other news, Mike McCarthy has guaranteed a win over the Redskins. Pretty bold for a coach to do when he’s favored by 4.5 points!

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for the sharp action on Washington! Pro money came in on Dallas later in the week. I love the Cowboys here, as they’re completely healthy for the first time all season. They also match up very well against the Redskins. Washington is a bit overrated now, so this line should be closer to -6. I’m going to bet four or five units on this game, depending on what spread we get.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Some sportsbooks like DraftKings have moved this line to -5. Bovada is listing -4.5 -115. I think this is a response to four Redskin players being ruled out due to illnesses. I’m going to lock this in now because I don’t want to wake up tomorrow morning and see this spread at -6. The best -4 line I initially found was -4 -118 at Bookmaker, but then I glanced at FanDuel’s alternate lines and saw -3.5 -120, so I’m just going to bet that.

PLAYER PROP ADDED: Thanks to a suggestion in the comment section below, I’m going to bet a player prop, which is CeeDee Lamb over 70.5 receiving yards -130 at Bovada. Here are Lamb’s receiving yard totals in games in which he and Dak Prescott were fully healthy: 104, 81, 66, 13, 84, 149, 112, 94, 89. In other words, he’s gone over that mark seven of nine times, and now he gets a Redskin defense that gets torched by the deep ball.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked this in on Saturday! The sharps have pounded the Cowboys like crazy, and I’m upset I didn’t make this a five-unit wager. If you still like Dallas at this price, you can get -6 -114 at Bookmaker.

Seattle Seahawks (4-8) at Houston Texans (2-10)
Line: Seahawks by 9. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson has improved exponentially since his return from his finger injury. He was solid Monday night, but made some bad throws. He was much better this past week, with only a couple of passes escaped him. He looked close to 100 percent, however, as he didn’t fire many incompletions against the 49ers.

Wilson should be 100 percent in this contest, and he gets an easy matchup on top of it. The Texans pressure the quarterback at a very low rate, and they have bad players in the secondary. Wilson will have all the time he needs to locate D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for big gains.

The Seahawks would be able to run the ball as well if they had a viable rushing attack. Instead, they’re giving touches to Adrian Peterson for some reason. It doesn’t make any sense, but that’s par for the course for this Seattle coaching staff that is doing a very poor job.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It may not matter if the Seahawks establish a rushing attack because Davis Mills will be starting for Houston. Mills is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. He does nothing well. There’s a reason the Texans haven’t been remotely competitive with him, outside of an inexplicably close game against the Patriots.

To be fair to Mills, he’s battled nothing but tough defenses. Here are the stop units he has endured, as well as their respective pass defense DVOAs: Panthers (5th), Bills (1st), Patriots (2nd), Colts (15th), Cardinals (3rd), Rams (11th). Perhaps we’ve been a bit harsh on Mills, as he hasn’t battled a team ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in pass defense quite yet.

The Seahawks are 26th in pass defense DVOA, so perhaps Mills could finally have a half-decent performance. Seattle doesn’t rush the quarterback consistently, so Mills won’t face tons of pressure behind his injury-ravaged offensive line. This could perhaps allow him to connect with Brandin Cooks for some considerable gains.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was -6.5. It has since moved to -7.5. I don’t understand why it has moved just one point. Consider what has transpired recently. The Seahawks beat the 49ers, albeit in a misleading performance, which I’ll address shortly. The Texans, meanwhile, lost their starting quarterback. Even though Mills hasn’t had a fair matchup yet, he’s still definitely worse than Taylor.

It’s almost like the sportsbooks are begging the public to bet the Seahawks with this line. Despite the spread coming in short, the sharps have pounded the Texans.

Why is this? Perhaps professional bettors recognize that the Seahawks were lucky to beat the 49ers, as they were outgained and averaged 1.7 fewer yards per play. The Seahawks typically play poorly as large favorites, owning a 5-13 ATS record at -6 or greater since 2017 (that is when their roster declined.) Also, there are motivational angles to consider. The Seahawks just beat the 49ers and have to take on the rival Rams next week. I don’t know if they’ll be fully focused against this miserable Texan team. If they’re sloppy with the football, they could give Houston a window to somehow cover this spread.

As I’ve said earlier, this is an ugly week. My stomach already hurts from looking at the teams I plan on heavily betting, but this is where the value happens to be this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t think I’m going to end up betting this game. The Texans have inexplicably cut Zach Cunningham, which doesn’t make much sense. David Culley is the second coming of Bill O’Brien, as he appears to be another power-hungry idiot who is willing to ruin the roster in exchange for full control. Reports indicate that he has lost the locker room, so I don’t have interest in betting this trash team.

SATURDAY NOTES: If I knew the Texans would definitely try hard in this game, I’d bet them. The Seahawks are overpriced and could be missing both of their starting safeties. However, thanks to Bill O’Caldwell’s antics, the Texans’ locker room is reportedly in shambles. Again, I’m often hesitant to buy into media-created stories, but O’Caldwell has been deactivating and cutting players who don’t fall in line, which won’t fly in the NFL.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, if I knew the Texans would try hard, I would bet them at this absurd line. The best line is +9 -105 at Bovada.