NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2021

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Denver Broncos (7-9)
Line: Chiefs by 11.5. Total: 44.5.
Saturday, Jan. 8, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Week 17 Analysis: The early Sunday slate was great, save for the Bills failing to cover against the Falcons. Had it not been for that stupid safety, they would have gotten there. The late-afternoon slate was a disaster, however.

I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Bills, 3 units (loss): I don’t know why the Bills allowed a safety to the Falcons, but those two points proved the difference, as we missed out on the cover by 0.5 points.

Broncos, 4 units (loss): This was a total bummer. I locked in the Broncos +6 early in the week. Twenty-four hours later, half of Denver’s roster was on the virus list.

Texans, 4 units (loss): Another bad beat. The Texans, as 14-point dogs, were winning at halftime! They were down 10 with a few minutes remaining, but two late field goals gave San Francisco the cover.

Cardinals, 3 units (win): I regret not betting more on Arizona, but hindsight is always 50/50, as a wise man once said.

Lions, 8 units (loss): How in the world did the Seahawks score 51 points with two missing offensive linemen? I know it was against the Lions, but Detroit had been playing so much better since the bye. If you were to tell me the Lions would get to 29 points against Seattle, I would’ve bet the farm on them.

Steelers, 5 units (win): I was strongly considering making this my January NFL Pick of the Month after my Lions wager lost, but the line had already moved to Pittsburgh -3.

We have another bad beat (Texans) to add to our list. I can’t wait to compile an entire page of bad beats during the offseason.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due very soon. My wife delivered our son, Conrad, this past Friday! Thanks so much to anyone who sent a congratulatory e-mail or comment! Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There was a chance Patrick Mahomes wasn’t going to play this week. Had the Chiefs won and the Titans lost in Week 17, this game would’ve been meaningless for Kansas City. Instead, the opposite happened. Thus, Mahomes will play if the Chiefs want a shot at the No. 1 seed, which is still possible, though it would require Tennessee losing to Houston.

The Broncos couldn’t stop Justin Herbert at all last week, but that’s because they had so many people on the virus list. They’ll be better equipped to win this game, but the problem is that they need to blitz often because of some of their missing personnel. That’s a losing strategy against Mahomes, who eats the blitz alive.

Meanwhile, Denver is at its worst when it comes to stopping the run. Andy Reid has increased his dedication to rushing the ball since teams began using the cover-2 shell against his offense. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams figure to perform well in this contest.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos’ offense has been very lackluster ever since Teddy Bridgewater suffered a brutal concussion. Drew Lock has proven to be one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and I don’t see him having a good game if he’s forced into starting once again.

Lock is a young quarterback, and most inexperienced signal-callers have major problems dealing with pressure. The Chiefs have the No. 2 pressure rate in the NFL, so they’re going to rattle Lock, who will likely commit some turnovers as a result.

The Broncos will attempt to run with their talented backs, of course, but that’s not going to be an effective strategy. Kansas City has been much better versus ground attacks ever since moving Chris Jones to the interior.

RECAP: This line may seem high, but I don’t think it’s high enough. Assuming Lock starts, the Broncos don’t stand a chance against a motivated Chiefs team. Kansas City’s players will want to be focused and eager to play very hard coming off a loss.

That said, there’s a part of me that wonders if Andy Reid knows this is futile. Again, the Titans need to lose to the Texans, which is probably not happening. Thus, I could see Reid pulling his starters early. I think that’s a major risk that must be factored into this handicapping. I still like the Chiefs, but I won’t be betting this game as a result.

Our Week 18 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Teddy Bridgewater is officially out. Drew Lock will start, but he may not be 100 percent with a shoulder injury. Even better for the Chiefs, Denver is going to be missing some of its top cornerbacks, including Patrick Surtain. I may end up betting on the Chiefs after all.

SATURDAY NOTES: How are the Broncos supposed to cover anyone? They’re missing so many defensive backs due to injury. The only cornerbacks they have available on the roster who have played more than a handful of snaps this year are Bryce Callahan, Kyle Fuller (who sucks this season) and that’s it. With Denver in such rough shape, I’m going to increase my unit count on the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The only sharp money involved in this game was on the Chiefs when the line was -10. The spread has risen a bit since, but is still reasonable considering that the Broncos have so many liabilities in their secondary. I expect a blowout. The best line is -11.5 -105 at Bovada.

Chiefs at Broncos Pick with More Details.

Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
Line: Cowboys by 6.5. Total: 44.5.
Saturday, Jan. 8, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Unknown.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

RESTING STARTERS: It’s possible that both teams will rest their starters in this meaningless game. The Eagles cannot earn a home game in the playoffs no matter what they do. The Cowboys, meanwhile, can slide between the 2-4 seed, but they’re not even guaranteed the No. 2 seed if they prevail and other teams ahead of them lose because Arizona could jump into the No. 2 seed with a victory. Plus, the Cowboys will have to battle the Eagles if they earn the No. 2 seed, so they may be afraid of giving away some of their game plan if they try hard.

With that in mind, I’m not going to handicap the matchups because we may see a battle between Cooper Rush and Gardner Minshew.

RECAP: Someone may know something. This game means very little to both teams, as discussed. However, there’s been lots of sharp money on Dallas. This could be because Mike McCarthy said his team is going to “play to win,” but that doesn’t mean he’ll do so with his starters. Still, the sharps bet the Cowboys heavily, so I’ll tail them in a game in which I have no opinion otherwise.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Eagles have lots of players on the virus list, so they won’t even have the option to play. Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott told the media that he will be playing. However, this line plummeted back to +4.5, so someone may know something about the Cowboys not playing their starters.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some Cowboys ended up on the virus list, including Tyron Smith and Micah Parsons. It makes sense that the line has fallen from +7. I still have no interest in this game because it’s unclear what Dallas’ motivation is going to be.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp action on both sides of this game. The latest has come in on the Cowboys because their starters are playing, but there’s a chance we won’t see them beyond the first quarter. With so many unknowns, it’s impossible to bet this game.

Green Bay Packers (13-3) at Detroit Lions (2-13-1)
Line: Packers by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 46-36 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Rams -3.5

Packers -13

Chargers -8

This was an even week for the sportsbooks. The highest-bet teams went 2-1, but lots of teasers lost because the Colts suffered an outright defeat.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots -6.5

Redskins -6.5

Cowboys -5.5

Bengals +3

Chiefs -10

The public usually loves road favorites, and this week is no different. Four of the five highest-bet teams qualify as such.

RESTING STARTERS: Aaron Rodgers said he wants to play in this game, but he almost certainly will not. Perhaps he’ll be on the field for a drive or two, but that’s about it. The Packers have clinched the No. 1 seed, so there’s no reason for him to take the field. It’ll be the Lions versus the Packer backups, which is not worth discussing.

RECAP: The sportsbooks are so sure that Rodgers is going to sit that they made the Lions a favorite before briefly changing their minds. The Packers are now small favorites, but I’m going to back the team that will be playing its starters. Dan Campbell’s team has been playing hard for most of the season, so I’d be surprised if they suddenly stopped trying in the final week of the season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has risen to Green Bay -4. Why!? Aaron Rodgers says he wants to play, but I can’t see him remaining on the field for very long. Risking his health would be stupid.

SATURDAY NOTES: Aaron Rodgers has been announced as the starter, but that doesn’t mean he’ll play into the second half, or even into the second quarter. I imagine he’ll play a drive or two and then sit, so I still would pick the Lions. Sharp money has come in on Detroit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We know the Packers starters will play – except for Aaron Jones – but it could be for a quarter or a drive. Then again, maybe they go insane like the Cowboys last night and play all three quarters. This uncertainty makes this game impossible to bet. The sharps haven’t really taken a side.

Packers at Lions Pick with More Details.

Chicago Bears (6-10) at Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
Line: Vikings by 4. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:



This is basically telling a fireman that he doesn’t know what a fire is. How rude!

Here’s someone wishing me luck:



What a nice comment! I don’t think I’ll be growing up anytime soon though.

Here’s someone trying to make a straw-man argument against me:



Except, they failed miserably! Antarctica was cool, or rather, cold. Zing!

Here’s someone who doesn’t trust my opinion as a medical professional:



Firemen know the difference between a one-alarm and a five-alarm fire, just like I know the difference between viruses because I’m a doctor.

Here’s more of the same:



It’s the craziest thing. I used to talk to leftists 10 years ago who are super anti-big pharma, and we used to have interesting discussions about it. Now, every single one of them tout big pharma’s government obedience medicine. The government, media and big pharma changing so many people’s mindsets is one of the greatest scams in the history of this country.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings had an outside chance at the playoffs, but that vanished when Kirk Cousins landed on the virus list. Sean Mannion started Sunday night and was a disaster. I think he was like 1-of-30 after Cris Collinsworth tried to get “#FreeSeanMannion” trending on Twitter.

Assuming Cousins returns this week, he’ll find that he has a tough matchup against the Bears. Chicago’s pass defense DVOA has improved in recent weeks, climbing to 10th. Cousins won’t have Adam Thielen at his disposal, so he’ll have to continue leaning on K.J. Osborn when not throwing to Justin Jefferson. Fortunately for Cousins, he’ll have plenty of success targeting Jefferson, given that the Bears are weak to No. 1 receivers.

Regardless, the Vikings will attempt to run as much as possible because the coaching staff will never fully trust Cousins, no matter how much they’re spending on him. Dalvin Cook got banged up Sunday night, so we may see Alexander Mattison handle the majority of the workload. Whether it’s Cook or Mattison, they’ll find themselves in an unfavorable matchup. The Bears have poor season-long ranks against the run, but they’re much better versus ground attacks when Akiem Hicks is healthy, which is the case at the moment.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears are another team whose quarterback situation is in flux. Justin Fields has missed the past couple of weeks, which has forced Chicago into rotating between Nick Foles and Andy Dalton. It’s unclear if Fields or Dalton will start.

No matter which quarterback gets the nod, Darnell Mooney will be targeted frequently. The Vikings are weak to slot receivers, which is where Mooney is often stationed. Minnesota’s pass rush will attempt to disrupt this, but that will be more difficult with Jason Peters on the field. Peters was not available for the first matchup between these teams, which would explain Chicago’s nine-point output.

The Bears will have plenty of success moving the chains with David Montgomery. The Vikings are weak against the run, as we saw Sunday night when A.J. Dillon trampled them late in the game.

RECAP: This is a difficult matchup to handicap because it’s tough to identify the motivational edge. You could say it belongs to the Bears because the Vikings were just eliminated from the playoffs. Some of their players looked dejected in the loss to the Packers. Why would they get up for this game when their postseason dreams were just thwarted?

On the other hand, the Bears may not try either. Something I like to do in the final week of the season is go against teams that will be firing their coaches because the players have little incentive to try hard. Matt Nagy is as good as gone, so Chicago’s effort level is likely to be low.

However, I think the Bears might be in a unique situation. They know they’re building toward something with Fields, so I think there’s a good chance that they’ll try harder than most teams with lame-duck coaches. Besides, the Bears are a very underrated team at the moment. With a healthy Hicks and Peters on the field, they’re much better than their record says they are. In recent weeks, they crushed the Giants, upset the Seahawks, outplayed the Vikings in a loss without Peters (they outgained Minnesota 370-193) and held a lead at halftime in Lambeau in a game in which Peters got hurt early. If the Bears try hard, they will win this rematch.

I’m willing to bet a small amount on Chicago, especially if Mannion plays. Mannion gave the Vikings no chance, and I can’t see Minnesota playing hard for him in this meaningless game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kirk Cousins will play, which is why this spread has moved across the key number of three to -3.5. The line then moved again on the news that Justin Fields contracted the deadly disease. Let’s hope he survives. At any rate, I’m definitely going to be betting the Bears if Jason Peters and Akiem Hicks play.

SATURDAY NOTES: My conditions for betting the Bears was that Jason Peters and Akiem Hicks would have to play. Hicks is out. This is very significant because the Bears’ run defense is much worse without him, which obviously matters in this matchup. That said, the Vikings have a bunch of key players (Eric Kendricks, Christian Darrisaw, Ezra Cleveland) on the virus list who entered protocol on Jan. 3. They still have time to be activated, but if they’re not, I may end up betting on the Bears after all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vikings will have their two offensive linemen, but Kendricks is out. This is significant, as Kendricks is one of the best linebackers in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense is completely different without him. The sharps are betting the Vikings, and I imagine it’s for this reason. I’m going to bet three units on Chicago. The best line is +4 -106 at FanDuel.

Bears at Vikings Pick with More Details.

Indianapolis Colts (9-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
Line: Colts by 14. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Everything I’ve heard and read following Week 17 indicates the Colts will win this game easily. They’re playing against the Jaguars, after all. How in the world could they possibly be challenged by a team that just lost 50-10 to New England?

What if I told you that the Jaguars may have the answer to stopping the Colts? They certainly did the first time these teams met. The Jaguars lost because of a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, as they suffered a six-point defeat on the road. In that contest, they outgained the Colts, 331-295, and they averaged 0.5 more yards per play.

The Jaguars were able to stymie Jonathan Taylor in that game. Aside from surrendering a long run to start the afternoon, the Jaguars did well to bottle up Taylor. Jacksonville is better versus the run than the pass, so this was not some fluke. If history repeats itself, Carson Wentz will have to lead his team to victory, which could mean a loss. Wentz had just one completion in the first 28 minutes of last week’s loss to the Raiders. He stinks.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence has stunk as well this year, but to be fair, he’s had no help. Lawrence gets no blocking, while his receiving corps has been lackluster ever since D.J. Chark suffered a season-ending injury.

There’s some hope for Lawrence here, as he had one of his best performances to date versus the Colts the last time he battled them. This is likely because the Colts put less pressure on the quarterback than any other team in the NFL. Rookie quarterbacks tend to crumble under pressure, but Lawrence won’t see much of that in this contest.

The one difference between this game and the first battle between these teams is that James Robinson won’t be available. Dare Ogunbowale will have to start instead, which is a clear downgrade. However, Robinson wasn’t expected to do much anyway because the Colts are stout against the run.

RECAP: The Colts absolutely have to win this game, so the Aurora Snowmo Effect applies. For those of you who are new to the site, Aurora Snowmo is an amalgamation between Aurora Snow and Tony Romo, and the Aurora Snowmo Effect describes teams that must win at the end of the year, but can’t do so because they choke. Aurora Snow, a famous porn star, would obviously always choke while doing her “job,” and Romo did as well, at least during the early stages of his career. This saying is almost a decade-and-a-half old; I recall inventing it back when I lived with my parents when I was saving up for a house after graduating from college.

At any rate, the Colts need to win, so they can’t be counted on to prevail. I know they’re battling the Jaguars, but that doesn’t mean squat. Jacksonville has owned Indianapolis in recent years, even when the Colts have been much better than the Jaguars. Jacksonville doesn’t match up terribly against the Colts for reasons mentioned earlier, so it stands a chance of being competitive despite the 50-10 drilling it took from the Patriots last week.

It must also be noted that this spread is way too high. The advance line was Jacksonville +8.5, but now it’s +15.5, only because the Colts need to win. This is an absurd spread movement because so many teams have choked in these must-win situations over the years.

Everything says there’s lots of value with the Jaguars. My personal line is Jacksonville +8, while DVOA believes the line should be +9.5. Anything in the double digits is obscene for a Colts squad that just lost to the Darren Waller-less Raider team at home.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Call me crazy, but I think there’s a decent chance the Jaguars pull the upset. I think I’m going to sprinkle in a small wager on the Jacksonville moneyline.

SATURDAY NOTES: Xavier Rhodes is out, while DeForest Buckner will likely be sidelined after missing practice all week. This will only help the Jaguars keep this game close. This may seem crazy, but I’m going to increase the unit count to four. This spread is out of control.

FINAL THOUGHTS: DeForest Buckner will play. This didn’t matter to the sharps, who have been betting the Jaguars heavily. I can’t say I’m surprised by this because this line is so high. The best line is +14.5 -110 at FanDuel.

Colts at Jaguars Pick with More Details.

Tennessee Titans (11-5) at Houston Texans (4-12)
Line: Titans by 10. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans have been a completely different team with A.J. Brown back on the field. When Brown was sidelined, Tennessee got crushed by the Patriots and lost outright to the Steelers. Since Brown has returned, however, the Titans upset the 49ers and then went on to destroy the Dolphins.

The Texans do a good job of locking down opposing No. 1 receivers, so I don’t expect Brown to go nuts in this game. However, Brown’s presence will open up opportunities for everyone else, including Julio Jones, who figures to be healthier after barely playing the past two weeks.

This includes the running game as well. D’Onta Foreman has done a solid job filling in for Derrick Henry, and he has a dream matchup to close out the regular season. The Texans have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL – they recently couldn’t stop Justin Jackson – so Foreman could eclipse the century mark once again.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans seemed to have great confidence in Davis Mills following the upset victory over the Chargers. They even leaked that they weren’t interested in any of the 2022 NFL Draft quarterbacks because they wanted to give Mills a shot next year. It’s possible, however, that the team may feel a bit differently about Mills now because he was dreadful in the loss to San Francisco. Mills had issues completing routine passes at times.

Mills will continue to have problems in this contest. The Titans rank seventh in pass defense DVOA. They generate a healthy pass rush, which will be troublesome for Mills behind his poor offensive line. Tennessee also does a great job of eliminating tight ends, so that will shut the Brevin Jordan door.

The Titans are worse against the run than the pass, but only by default. They rank in the middle of the pack versus the rush, so containing Rex Burkhead shouldn’t be any sort of problem like it was for the Chargers.

RECAP: The Titans will obviously be fully motivated to win this game because they’ll clinch the No. 1 seed with a victory. Note that the Aurora Snowmo Effect does not apply here because this is not a must-win for the Titans. They can suffer a defeat and still win the Super Bowl. Granted, it’ll be more difficult to not have the week off for Derrick Henry to return, but winning the Super Bowl is still a possibility without the bye. Thus, there’s not nearly as much pressure on the Titans as there is on the Colts, for example.

With that in mind, I expect the Titans to win easily. Had they not lost to the Texans earlier in the year, I’d consider a possibility of them overlooking Houston, but the Titans will be fully focused and prepared to avenge the shocking defeat.

I considered this spread a bit too high for my liking, but then I recalled that we’re not too far removed from the Colts and Seahawks both demolishing the Texans. The Titans are better than those teams, so I’m willing to place a multi-unit bet on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Derrick Henry is back! I heard there’s a chance he’ll play this week, but I’ll believe it when I see it. He’ll definitely be back in the first playoff game, which will likely be in the divisional round. Tennessee shouldn’t need Henry to beat Houston.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s no major injury news to report. I still like the Titans for a couple of units, as Houston has been beaten down by the better teams it has faced, for the most part. I’m looking to lock this in, but I can’t find a -10 -110. I don’t want to pay extra vig for 10.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps often take the big underdogs, but this is a rare occasion in which they’re on the favorite. I’m still on the Titans for two units. The best line is -10 -113 at Bookmaker.

Titans at Texans Pick with More Details.

Washington Redskins (6-10) at New York Giants (4-12)
Line: Redskins by 7. Total: 37.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants have endured a brutal end to the regular season, but there is some good news for the fans beyond the draft capital their team possesses: They’ll be spared from watching Mike Glennon in the finale. Glennon is sidelined with an injury, so we’ll likely see Jake Fromm once again. Fromm was woeful against the Eagles, but he had a solid drive at the end of the Dallas affair, so maybe there is some hope. Fromm was very accurate in college, so perhaps he’ll perform better in his second start, which happens to be against the NFL’s 27th-ranked DVOA defense.

It’ll help Fromm if he actually has some offensive talent at his disposal. I laughed last week when I heard people say, “Kenny Golladay is the only healthy receiver the Giants have” because Golladay is defintiely not healthy. He’s playing, but he’s a mere shell of his former self. Kadarius Toney, on the other hand, is an explosive talent. He has a shot of returning from injury, and if he does, that would be a huge boon for Fromm.

Toney is pretty much the Giants’ only hope. While the Redskins struggle against the pass, they’re strong versus the run. They won’t allow Saquon Barkley to do much.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Giants have the opposite ranks when it comes to their defense. They’re solid at stopping the pass because of all the talent in their secondary, but they’ve been woeful versus the run ever since losing Blake Martinez to a season-ending injury.

The Redskins are equipped of taking advantage of that liability. Antonio Gibson missed last week’s game with a cold, but he’ll likely return for the finale. He’ll be able to trample through the Giants’ beleaguered rush defense.

Taylor Heinicke, conversely, won’t have as much success. His downfield options beyond Terry McLaurin are lackluster, so the Giants shouldn’t have any issues covering them. I don’t even think McLaurin will have a particularly good game. He performed well against the Giants back in Week 2, but that was when the Redskins possessed a healthier offensive line that gave Heinicke more time in the pocket.

RECAP: The Giants were +4 on the advance line. They’re now +7. This means we win with every single key number, save for pushing with seven. That’s sort of appealing.

Of course, this didn’t matter last week when the Giants were trashed by the Bears. If Chicago could debacle the Giants, the Redskins can do so as well, provided Toney doesn’t play. If Toney is sidelined once more, the Giants’ limited offense won’t stand a chance. Conversely, Toney’s possible presence would greatly upgrade the offense. Having a downfield threat would make New York a different team. Its offense would score some points, giving the team a decent chance of covering.

I’ll have a better idea of where I’m going with this pick once the final injury report is released. If the Giants once again have no threats, I’ll be on the Redskins. However, I’ll consider a bet on the Giants if they get Toney back from injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kadarius Toney has been limited in practice Wednesday, but missed practice Thursday. If he plays, I’ll be on the Giants because they’ll actually have a receiving threat this week. If not, I’m definitely going to be on Washington.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for Kadarius Toney to play. He won’t, but Darius Slayton and perhaps Collin Johnson will return to join Kenny Golladay. Those aren’t great players, but they’re at least viable options, giving the Giants some viable threats against a Redskin secondary that can’t cover anyone. I like the +7 we’re getting after we had a +4 on the advance line. Getting every single key number in what should be a defensive struggle is appealing. I’m going to bet a few units on the Giants.

PARLAY ADDED: I’m going to try a four-team parlay where I’m combining my top four plays across more key numbers. The four legs of the parlay are Giants +7.5, Dolphins +7.5, Falcons +4.5 and Seahawks +7.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I never thought I’d be concerned about Collin Johnson’s availability, but he’ll be active, so the Giants have some viable receivers. The sharps apparently care as well because they’re on the Giants. In fact, all the +7s are gone. The best remaining line is +6.5 -115 at Bovada.

Redskins at Giants Pick with More Details.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1) at Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 41.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: This line shot up Tuesday, moving from -4.5 to -5.5 on the news that Lamar Jackson may return this week. Jackson has been hobbled with an ankle injury, which obviously impacts his running ability. However, I doubt the Ravens would rush Jackson back for the finale if he weren’t fully healthy. If Jackson plays, I’d expect him to scramble as much as usual.

Jackson won’t be the only Raven who has success picking up rushing yardage. Pittsburgh’s struggles against the run have been so well documented that Kevin Stefanski is the only person on Earth who doesn’t know about it. John Harbaugh actually knows how to coach, so he’ll deploy Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray versus Pittsburgh’s battered front.

When passing, Jackson will have success finding Mark Andrews, who has been on a tear in the second half of the season. The Steelers are mediocre when it comes to stopping tight ends, so Andrews should thrive.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger had an emotional send-off Monday night, but it’s not like he performed well in the game. There were some drops, but most of Roethlisberger’s throws were close to the line of scrimmage, especially on third down.

Roethlisberger has a great matchup in this game, given Baltimore’s severe issues in the secondary. There’s no guarantee Roethlisberger will perform well despite the Ravens’ struggles against the pass. However, Roethlisberger was 21-of-31 for 236 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens in the first matchup, which was good enough to pull the upset.

The Steelers would love to run the ball like they did against the Browns. Najee Harris was terrific Monday night, but he won’t match that production. Baltimore’s ground defense ranks among the league’s best.

RECAP: Both teams are in an Aurora Snowmo Effect of sorts, so I won’t apply that dynamic to this game. That said, there’s still a potential motivational edge to exploit, and that would be by fading Pittsburgh. The Steelers had an emotional send-off for Ben Roethlisberger in his final home game. I don’t know how they match that intensity just six days later, even in a must-win situation.

That said, if the Steelers can muster the energy, they should be competitive in this game. Baltimore’s secondary is just such a liability, and most Steelers-Ravens affairs are close. Aside from the motivational angle, I don’t see why this would be any different.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a chance Lamar Jackson will play. This spread may get to -7 if he gets the nod. That’ll make the Steelers more appealing, but I really worry about their motivation after their emotional Monday night victory.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lamar Jackson has been ruled out, so Tyler Huntley will start. This line has dropped to -3.5, which I believe to be unwarranted. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Ravens.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has been betting the Steelers heavily, as they are seemingly impressed with what they saw Monday night. We now get Baltimore at a great price (-3 -110 at Bovada and BetUS). I’m going to increase my unit count to three.

Steelers at Ravens Pick with More Details.

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) at Cleveland Browns (7-9)
Line: Browns by 6. Total: 38.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I have another Steamed Hams clip for you! In this one, Principal Seymour is indecisive and has short-term memory loss.



Dude, I don’t think I’ve ever laughed so hard at anything in my life. I’m literally drenched in sweat right now from laughing so much.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow has been on such a tear that the consensus is now that he’s in second place in the MVP voting behind Aaron Rodgers. If the Bengals can somehow secure the No. 1 seed, via a victory and losses by the Chiefs and Titans, Burrow will win the award.

Burrow should play well in this game. The Browns suffered numerous injuries to their secondary Monday night, so it’s likely that some of those players will be sidelined. Burrow also won’t have to worry about pressure. Cleveland is in the bottom 10 of pressure rate in the NFL, so Burrow will have plenty of time to locate his dynamic receivers.

Burrow may not even have to do all that much because Joe Mixon has such a terrific matchup. We just saw Najee Harris top nearly 200 rushing yards behind a poor offensive line against the Browns. Mixon will pick up where Harris left off Monday night.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Any bettor who reacts negatively to the news that Baker Mayfield will sit out the finale hasn’t been paying attention. Mayfield has been dreadful since J.J. Watt fell on his already-injured shoulder in the middle of the season. He was so bad Monday night that he fired 10 consecutive incompletions.

Case Keenum will be an upgrade over this banged-up version of Mayfield. The Bengals have a pass-funnel defense, so Keenum will have success in this spot start, especially when targeting his tight ends. He has three of them at his disposal, which bodes well in this matchup because Cincinnati is one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to stopping tight ends, despite their great showing versus Travis Kelce last week.

The Bengals, conversely, are much more stout against the run. The Browns may actually decide to feed the ball to their talented rushers this week, but they’ll have less success doing so than they would have if they had done so versus the Steelers.

RECAP: This pick comes down to the Browns’ motivation. They were flat against the Steelers because they were just eliminated from the playoffs. They could have a similar attitude regarding this game, but in my experience, teams seldom quit two weeks in a row unless they really despise the coach. Despite Stefanski’s incompetence, I don’t get that sense from the Browns. Plus, the Browns were just embarrassed on national TV. Surely they’ll have some self respect.

Furthermore, teams typically try harder with their backup quarterback. This bodes well for the Browns, as does the incredible spread value we’re getting with them. They were -3 on the advance line, and yet they’re +3 now! That’s a huge adjustment. Under ordinary circumstances I’d pounce on the Browns, but it’s just not a guarantee that we’ll get a great effort from them. Thus, I’m probably going to refrain from betting this game at the moment, but I could change my mind if there’s any indication that we’ll see a better effort from Cleveland, or if we get even more line value with the Browns.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: When I wrote up this pick on Tuesday, this line was Cincinnati -3. It’s now Cleveland -6. The reason is because Joe Burrow said he doesn’t envision betting this game. Joe Mixon is ruled out already. Cincinnati will be playing its backups, so I’ll be on the Browns, who will have a healthy quarterback playing for them for a change. This line may seem high, but that’s just because the sportsbooks don’t seem to want money on Cleveland.

SATURDAY NOTES: Joe Burrow hasn’t officially been ruled out yet, but I’ll be surprised if he plays. I’m sticking with the Browns because their starters will be on the field, but I don’t have any interest in betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still nothing for me on this game. Motivation for the Browns might be low. The sharps haven’t touched this game either.

Bengals at Browns Pick with More Details.