NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 21, 2021

Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Line: Chiefs by 7.5. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Jan. 30, 3:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 18 Analysis: Another mixed weekend. Saturday was awesome because we hit our top play of the week with the 49ers. Sunday, conversely, featured more bad variance because we lost both coin flips.

I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Bengals, 2 units (win): This was the most correct side of the week. The Bengals led 16-6 and were never in any danger of not covering, thanks to Ryan Tannehill’s incompetence.

49ers, 5 units (win): The 49ers needed the blocked punt to win, but the overrated Packers didn’t deserve to be six-point favorites.

Buccaneers, 3 units (loss): The Buccaneers were down 27-3, but that’s child’s play for Tom Brady, who came back from down 28-3 to win a Super Bowl. The Buccaneers ended up tying the game, but couldn’t recover a Matthew Stafford fumble, then stupidly blitzed Stafford and left Cooper Kupp wide open downfield. Ugh.

Bills, 1 units (loss): This was not a multi-unit pick, but I’ll include it because this is the only other game on the card. We had yet another overtime spread loss while betting an underdog of three or more points. This is somehow the fourth time this has happened to us this year! The 2021 season has been the Murphy’s Law of betting years. This was just for one unit, but I put a bet on the Bills to win the Super Bowl because I thought if they could get past the Chiefs, they’d be the overwhelming favorites to win the whole thing.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due very soon. My wife delivered our son, Conrad, nearly two weeks ago! Thanks so much to anyone who sent a congratulatory e-mail or comment! Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week. You know we’re deep in the playoffs when former hate mailers return like rats crawling out of the sewer:



Our boy Frank Sebastiano has gotten a bit lazy, perhaps because of his severe TDS. Come on, Frank, I know you’re still crying yourself to sleep each night because of the 2016 election, but can you put an ounce of effort into your hate mailing!?

By the way, I still don’t know what he meant by “We shall see about your little site…” This is not the only threat I’ll show you this week.

Before we get to that, here’s another repeat hater:



Again with the lackluster effort. These hate mailers suck. It must be the cold weather slowing down their already-decayed brains.

Here’s an odd e-mail exchange:



Oh no, not the FTC! I’m sure they’re dying to get on the case. Perhaps Christian should self-report himself for being the true racist.

Anyway, If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I still can’t believe that Patrick Mahomes led a game-tying drive with 13 seconds remaining. It truly was amazing, though Buffalo’s decision to play a prevent defense had something to do with it. As the old saying goes, “The only thing a prevent defense does is prevent you from winning.” This was definitely the case for Buffalo, who had the sure victory ripped out of its hands.

Mahomes thrived last week despite battling the league’s No. 1 pass defense. Buffalo gets more pressure on the quarterback than any other team in the NFL, yet Mahomes still scored 42 points. He ran circles around Buffalo’s bewildered defenders, so if he was able to do that, imagine what he’ll do against the Bengals and their 24th-ranked pass defense DVOA. The Bengals generate decent pressure on the quarterback – they’re 15th in that regard – but they have liabilities in their back seven that Mahomes can expose.

The Bengals actually deal with No. 1 receivers extremely well, thanks to Chidobe Awuzie and his breakout season. However, Cincinnati is dreadful when it comes to covering No. 2 wideouts, tight ends and running backs as receivers out of the backfield. Travis Kelce is the obvious player to benefit from this, but don’t forget about Jerick McKinnon and Byron Pringle. McKinnon has been excellent as a pass-catching back thus far in the playoffs, while Pringle has taken a big step forward in his development during the second half of the year.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals won’t be able to slow down the Chiefs’ offense, so in order to beat Kansas City, they’ll have to outscore them in a shootout. We don’t have to speculate if this can happen because we just saw this occur in Week 17.

Joe Burrow engineered a spectacular performance against Kansas City in that game, going 30-of-39 for 446 yards and four touchdowns. I picked the Bengals to cover the spread in that contest (two units) because I loved Burrow’s matchup against the Chiefs. Despite being just a second-year player, Burrow is already brilliant against the blitz. The Chiefs happen to blitz at a high rate (8th), and Burrow made them pay by delivering quick strikes to all of his talented receivers, particularly Ja’Marr Chase, who recorded 266 yards and three touchdowns in that contest.

The Chiefs also have to worry about Joe Mixon. The stud back didn’t get much on the ground in the Week 17 affair because of an early deficit, but he caught seven of his eight targets, enjoying a great performance as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: The Bengals were +5 at home versus the Chiefs in their Week 17 meeting, and I thought that spread was a bit high back then. I wrote, “Everything now says this spread is too large. My personal numbers have this at Kansas City -2.5. The computer model says it should be -3. DVOA is most bullish on the Chiefs, and yet that’s -4.5.”

I mention this because this spread is the exact same number when juxtaposed to the other location. Teams get one point for home-field advantage these days, so a sum of two points is added to bring this from Cincinnati to neutral, then neutral to Kansas City. This line of -7 may seem low to those who are overly eager to bet the Chiefs following their thrilling victory over the Bills, but I think it’s too high.

My projected line is Kansas City -4.5, while DVOA says it should be -6. I like the value we’re getting with the underdog, which comes with all the key numbers. Furthermore, the Bengals match up well against the Chiefs, especially if Tyrann Mathieu is sidelined. Burrow, as mentioned, thrives against the blitz. He was able to put together a stellar performance the last time he battled Kansas City, and I expect more of the same in the rematch.

I like the Bengals quite a bit. It’s always scary to go against Mahomes, but that fear is probably why the Bengals are a great side this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Public action is coming in on the Chiefs with no rebuttal from the sharps on the Bengals. That’s why we’re beginning to see this line creep up toward -7.5. If you like the Bengals you can currently get +7.5 -108 at Bookmaker, which I’m going to lock in right now. The sharps could come in on the Bengals at +7.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad I locked in the +7.5 -108 because the sharps pounced on that number to bring it down to +7. We now know where the professional money is going in both games, and it’s nice to be on the same side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps bet the Bengals at +7.5. That line is no longer available anywhere, though you can pay -120 for it on Bookmaker and FanDuel. I would go with +7.5 -120 over the standard +7 -110 because you’ll be getting every key number that way.

San Francisco 49ers (10-7) at Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Line: Rams by 3.5. Total: 46.
Sunday, Jan. 30, 6:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views (one even had 100,000!), so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Reader NFL Quarterback Bust Tiers

Reader 2021 NFL Draft Grades for Each Pick

Reader 2016 NFL Draft Re-Grades

Reader 2017 NFL Draft Re-Grades

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

Jax NFL Mock Draft

Brock16 NFL Mock Draft

Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!



A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called WalterFootball Summer Solstice Classics Present: Circuit Breaker. I’ve created a response to the Hallmark/Netflix Christmas movies, which is my own summer solstice love movie!

Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop last year. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Los Angeles, home of the Super Game in two weeks, but tonight, we get a preview of one of the teams with the St. Louis Rams taking on my Philadelphia Eagles. Guys, the NFL has decided the 49ers are here, but I demand a recount because my Philadelphia Eagles were the better team against the 49ers in Week 2, so my Philadelphia Eagles definitely deserve to be here. What do you think, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Kim Chun-ja, I belief you got the ax last week when you got fire when you say mean thing about Roger Goldman. And ax and the hammer are brother and sister tool, which mean they almost the same, but if they have sexual, this call incense.

Reilly: Shhhhh, Emmitt, I was hoping they’d forget that they’d fire me! I need to keep my job in order for Mother to continue to give me allowance. Five more allowance payments, and I can get my next Philadelphia Eagles bobblehead.

Tollefson: Kevin, why don’t you give your money to me, and I’ll invest it. In just three weeks, you’ll triple your profits, so you can buy three bobblehead dolls. I need the money to expand the cellar where I keep all my female slaves. If I can open up more locations, we can have lots of rich guys who have naked women cooking and cleaning for them, and the world will be a better place for everyone.

Reilly: Tolly, I already asked Mother if I could use my allowance to borrow your slaves, but she said I have to do all the chores around the house. I can see security is here to escort me out, but I have my Supreme Court Justice lawyer here to save me! Wise Latina, tell these scoundrels that you have proof that I didn’t send e-mails calling Roger Goodell a farter.

Sonia Sotomayor: Yes, we’ve reviewed Mr. Chun-ja’s e-mail accounts, and I can confirm that the 511,000 e-mails Mr. Chun-ja sent…

Reilly: It was actually just seven reported e-mails, and my name is Mr. R-

Sotomayor: Mr. Chun-ja sent 716,000 e-mails, and none of them contained the word “farter.” Furthermore, none of the recipients of said e-mails were amongst Mr. Chun-ja’s contacts list.

Reilly: Ha! I told you I didn’t send them! Where’s Adam Schefter to explain all of his false reports! He has a lot of expla- wait a second, I see Adam Schefter’s face on the door knob!

Schefter: That’s right, Kevin, I have morphed into a door knob to protect myself against the deadly Omnicron variant, which has killed billions of people. Door knobs are protected from the Omnicron, but I still have been tested 3,645 times just to be safe. Guys, I have seen the latest e-mail that is calling Roger Goodell a farter, and I can confirm that Howie Roseman has authorized me to release this information. Here’s the e-mail: “Roger Goodell is the biggest farter on the planet. He’s such a big farter that he sucks farts out of other dudes’ a**holes.” This e-mail was sent 10 seconds ago.

Reilly: It couldn’t have been me! I wasn’t even holding my phone!

Joe Biden: Ah, the telephone, what a great invention. They now have these phones on the street you can insert the, you know, you know the thing, the metal circle thing worth money, into the phone, and you can call anyone you want. This is state-of-the-art technology, and I think we might be moving too fast. Before these, you know, the circle money phones were invented, the way I used to get a call girl was show up at the local preschool and have one of my secret service men take one of them. They’re called secret service, so it’s a secret to everyone. They all say I’m doing a great job as Senator, so let me talk for a while about how great of a job I’m doing as Senator.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, Sleepy Joe says he’s Senator, but he’s really President, but he’s not the real President, he’s a fake President, and not just a fake President, he’s the fakest President anyone has ever seen, and not just the fakest President anyone has ever seen, but he’s a total disgrace and a total disaster the likes of which no one has ever seen. If Sleepy Joe didn’t steal the 81 million votes, I would be President right now, and the economy would be the greatest anyone could ever imagine. Believe me, no one knows about economies more than I do, and everyone agrees, so believe it when I say we’d have the greatest economy, but we don’t have the greatest economy, we have the worst economy, and it’s a total disaster and a total disgrace, and everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, LET’S FOCUS ON THE ISSUE AT HAND. WHO IS SENDING E-MAILS ABOUT ROGER GOODELL BEING A FARTER? IT’S NOT YOU, ME OR THE SENILE GUY, AND I KNOW THIS BECAUSE I HAVE THREE EYES ON MY FACE, AND TWO OF THEM ARE ON YOU AND ONE OF THEM IS ON HIM, AND MY FOURTH HIDDEN EYE IS ON ME.

Reilly: Yes! We’re narrowing down the suspects! It’s obvious it’s Charles Davis out to sabotage me again. Right, New Daddy? New Daddy, what are you doing?

Jay Cutler: Shut up kid, I’m about to send another fart joke.

Reilly: Fart joke? Let me see… New Daddy, you’re the one calling Roger Goodell a farter! How dare you nearly get me fired for that?

Jay Cutler: You nearly got fired? I’ve been busy making fart jokes to people so I haven’t been paying attention to anything these past couple of months.

Reilly: New Daddy! Now you’re the one who’s going to get fired! In fact, here comes Roger Goodell!

Goodell: Greetings, fellow hu-mans, I am the hu-manoid whose designation is Roger Goodell, and I am very hu-man just like the rest of you. Because I am hu-man, I have a favorite number much like the rest of you hu-mans. My favorite number is – randomizing – negative 467,546 to the 67th power. Now that I have established myself as hu-man by sharing my favorite number, I can justify terminating the hu-manoid designated as Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler, you have been terminated.

Jay Cutler: Meh, the only reason I was working was so I could have free time to send fart jokes, but I can do that at home.

Reilly: No, New Daddy cannot be fired! I will fight tooth and nail to save you, New Daddy!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re referencing parts of Dracula from Castlevania 2, Kevin, except tooth wasn’t a part of Dracula, Kevin. Let’s discuss other parts of Dracula, Kevin. You already mentioned nail, Kevin. That’s one of five parts, Kevin. Let’s begin with the eyeball, Kevin. Don’t forget the rib, Kevin. This is not a rib you can eat, Kevin, because I see you drooling, Kevin. How about the heart, Kevin? And let’s not forget about the ring, Kevin. The ring is an odd one because it’s not actually a body part, Kevin. But with all of these relics, I can summon Dracula, Kevin, and maybe he’ll steal your bobbleheads, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, THERE’S ONLY ONE WEEK LEFT SO WE DON’T HAVE TIME FOR THIS SUBPLOT NOW, BUT MAYBE NEXT YEAR! Next week will all be about saving New Daddy’s job! We’ll be back after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford did not play well to close the regular season, firing seven interceptions in his final three regular-season games. If it wasn’t for a punt return touchdown, the Rams may have lost to Minnesota, and if it wasn’t for Tyler Huntley’s own interception, the Rams may have suffered a defeat against Baltimore. However, Stafford has looked like a new man in the playoffs. His reported chronic back issues have apparently disappeared. He was brilliant against the Buccaneers, especially on the final drive in which he torched Tampa Bay with a deep shot to Cooper Kupp.

That said, chronic back problems can flare up at any point without warning. I wouldn’t say Stafford is completely out of the woods yet. He also has a difficult matchup against a 49er secondary that has quietly improved since Emmanuel Moseley returned from injury. Given the heavy pressure the 49ers can generate with Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead, Stafford certainly has his work cut out for him.

Stafford won’t be able to lean on the running game either. Th 49ers stuff the run extremely well, so Stafford will once again have to carry the Rams on his back, which doesn’t sound ideal for obvious reasons.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Rams also have high ranks against the run, but they haven’t been as good since losing star safety Jordan Fuller. Leonard Fournette was getting some nice gains on the ground before the Buccaneers fell way behind and had to abandon the run. We also saw the 49ers pound the ball down Los Angeles’ throat in Week 18 following Fuller’s injury.

With that in mind, I expect Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel to generate ample rushing yardage once again, provided the latter is healthy. Samuel got hurt twice against the Packers on Saturday night, but he’s expected to practice as early as Wednesday. Having an extra day of rest seems rather helpful.

San Francisco loves attacking the middle of the field and will always have success against opponents that can’t defend that well. The Rams struggle at defending the middle of the field, which is why San Francisco’s offense has had so much success against the Rams’ defense over the past several seasons, including twice this year.

RECAP: The 49ers were one of my top picks of the week when they battled the Rams in Week 18. Here was my reasoning:

This spread doesn’t make any sense. The Rams are -4 versus the 49ers, which is the same number as we saw last week when they visited the Ravens before the line ballooned to +6.5. However, San Francisco is much better than Baltimore. The 49ers are seventh in overall team DVOA, while Baltimore is 19th. I know there’s a different site dynamic, but teams these days get just one point for home-field advantage. The 49ers are definitely two points better than the Ravens!

I love the value we’re getting with the 49ers. These teams are close to even, so Los Angeles should be -2, perhaps -3 at most. The DVOA spread is -2 as well. All of this, by the way, isn’t even factoring the perpetual edge San Francisco has over the Rams in this matchup. The Rams haven’t beaten the 49ers since 2018, and I expect things to remain that way.

Everything still applies. The spread of this game is -3.5 instead of -4, but we’re still getting great line value. My projected spread is still -2, while DVOA has adjusted slightly to -1.5. The 49ers own the Rams because they match up so well against them, yet the public refuses to acknowledge this. They’re more likely to beat the Rams because of all the big names and what they saw last week when Los Angeles got out to a 27-3 lead against Tom Brady. The Rams blew that lead, much like they did versus San Francisco in Week 18, thanks to their inability to run the ball. That’ll once again be the case, so even if the Rams jump out to another lead, they could easily blow it versus the pesky 49ers.

Of the two games, I like the 49ers more than the Bengals, but I love both underdogs this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action here either. I’m tempted to lock in the +3.5, but we could go to +4 if the public bets the Rams with no pushback from the pros.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m posting this Saturday note a bit early because sharp money has emerged on the 49ers. This line has moved to +3.5 -115 in most sportsbooks, but you can still get +3.5 -111 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, there’s sharp money on the 49ers at +3.5. You can still get a +3.5 for -114 vig at Bookmaker and FanDuel. I still love San Francisco.