NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2022

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
Line: Buccaneers by 1. Total: 45.5.
Thursday, Oct. 27, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 7 Analysis: We had four incredible weeks to start the year, yet we’ve given back almost all of our gains because of the past three weeks. This past Sunday is the most tilted I’ve ever been in a game in a long time, so I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Lions, 5 units (loss): Let’s cut right to the chase. The Lions lost their best player, Amon-Ra St. Brown, on the second drive of the game, to a concussion, which was later not even ruled a concussion. Jamaal Williams fumbled at the 1-inch line in the fourth quarter. Despite this, the Lions were still down just 10-6 with three minutes remaining! These teams were about even yardage-wise (330-312 Dallas), and they both averaged 5.6 yards per play. Dallas had no business winning by more than seven, yet it happened because of fluky circumstances. My friend Chris vented about this after the game:



This is the third week in a row we’ve suffered a brutal beat (Buccaneers in Week 5, Dolphins in Week 6). I’ll admit that I’ve made some bad calls, including the next game on this list, but we’ve had some brutal luck as well.

Jaguars, 3 units (loss): A dumb pick. I’ll own this one. There was just no line value.

Colts, 3 units (loss): Matt Ryan self-destructed yet again. I’ll own this one as well, but I want to still vent about our four-unit teaser losing because the Colts at +8.5 lost by nine. Nine is such an unlikely result in the NFL, yet it’s happened twice in seven weeks where we’ve had +8.5 on a teaser, and that team lost by nine. It’s like we’re cursed or something.

Bengals, 4 units (win): This one was never in doubt, so that was nice.

Broncos, 4 units (loss): Look at these stats, and tell me how in the world the Jets won:



This was another aggravating loss. I maintain that Denver was the right side.

49ers, 3 units (loss): The 49ers were up 10-0, but blew the lead. It was stupid not to bet this at +3, not like it mattered.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers scoring just three points wasn’t the most surprising thing in the world. I was more shocked that their defense couldn’t contain Phillip Walker. I say this about Tampa Bay’s offense because the Panthers are 11th in defensive EPA and had some players returning from injury. The Buccaneers are also coached very poorly, as Byron Leftwich doesn’t seem to have any sort of clue. Of course, it didn’t help that Mike Evans dropped a deep touchdown, and Tom Brady overthrew him on two occasions.

This is an easier matchup for the Buccaneers. The Ravens are 31st in defensive EPA since Week 2, as they’ve surrendered big plays in both the running game and passing attack. The Browns moved the chains easily against them last week, so under normal circumstances, I’d like the Buccaneers’ chances of having offensive success in this contest, especially when considering that the Ravens don’t place much pressure on the quarterback.


BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Buccaneers don’t have the only struggling offense entering this game. The Ravens have disappointed on this side of the ball as well. They haven’t been able to pull away from two bad defenses – Browns, Giants – the past two weeks, and failing to do so almost cost them both victories. Lamar Jackson has not been himself at all. His accuracy has worsened lately, and he completed only nine passes versus Cleveland.

Injuries have been the culprit for Baltimore. The offense wasn’t the same with Rashod Bateman sidelined because the Ravens no longer had a downfield threat without him. Bateman returned last week, but Mark Andrews wasn’t completely healthy. Andrews missed Monday’s practice, so that doesn’t bode well for his chances of having a rebound performance against the Buccaneers.

The Ravens should at least be able to run the ball on Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were stout against the run in 2020 and 2021, but their ground defense hasn’t been as potent this year. Gus Edwards should be able to take advantage of that, as should Jackson.

RECAP: The line movement in this game is insane. The Buccaneers were -3 on the advance line, and now they’re 1.5-point underdogs. That’s a shift of 4.5 points because of just one week! Granted, that one week involved the Buccaneers losing to the 1-5 Panthers, but it was just one game, and Tampa Bay may have been looking ahead to this matchup.

Besides, it’s not like the Ravens are playing well. They were an offensive pass interference penalty away from losing to the Browns, which would’ve occurred just one week after losing to the Giants. I don’t think Baltimore deserves to be a road favorite.

With that said, I don’t really have any desire to bet either team. I’m going to take the value with the Buccaneers, but I think I’d need +3 to consider betting them.

Our Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers will be missing three starting defensive backs, but the Ravens will be without Calais Campbell. Mark Andrews may also miss this game after failing to practice all week. The sharps have pounded the Buccaneers on Wednesday evening, and I think I’ll be betting two units on them, depending on the final injury report.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of sharp action coming in on the Buccaneers. They might love the value – the advance spread was -3 – or they may believe that the Calais Campbell and Josh Bynes absences will make a big impact. I like the Buccaneers as well, and I’ll be betting two units on them. The best line is -2 at Bookmaker and Bovada.

Denver Broncos (2-5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
Line: Jaguars by 1. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 9:30 AM
at London


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DENVER OFFENSE: Russell Wilson’s status is currently unknown. He’s been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this year, and yet he would have been better than Brett Rypien this past Sunday. Wilson’s EPA per play is -0.09 this year, while Rypien’s EPA was -0.138 on Sunday. Wilson at least failed near the goal line; Rypien imploded whenever he got anywhere close to the red zone.

The Jaguars tend to blitz more often than the league average, which doesn’t bode well for either Denver quarterback. Wilson has been particularly bad against the blitz this year, completing just 17-of-37 passes, while Rypien doesn’t seem like he’d handle extra pass rushers well either. Wilson could at least scramble under normal circumstances, but we don’t know the health of his hamstring. Soft-tissue injuries could act up at any point, so Wilson could aggravate the injury, even if he starts.

Denver should at least have some success rushing the ball with its other players. The Jaguars aren’t very good against the run, so unless they establish a big lead early, Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray should perform well.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It’s unlikely that the Jaguars will move to a big lead early in the game, at least on paper. The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking second in net EPA since Week 2, and the Jaguars haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut since slaughtering the injury-ravaged Chargers in Week 3. Since Week 4, they’re just 18 in offensive EPA.

Trevor Lawrence has battled some upper-tier pass rushes lately, which would explain his struggles. The Eagles are fourth in pressure rate, and while the Giants are in the middle of the pack in that regard, they blitz more often than any other team in the NFL. Denver is seventh in pressure rate, and it blitzes frequently as well. When under pressure this year, Lawrence is completing just 44 percent of his passes, and he has thrown just one touchdown compared to three interceptions.

There is some hope for the Jaguar offense, however, and it could come via Travis Etienne. The electric runner is capable of breaking open huge plays at any moment, and the Broncos have surrendered some long gains to Austin Ekeler and Breece Hall the past two weeks.

RECAP: If this game were in Jacksonville, I’d bet on the Broncos. Denver is a terrific defensive team and will limit Jacksonville’s scoring. The Broncos can’t score themselves, but the lower point total will mean that the underdog has a better chance of covering, especially with this line being +3. The most common result of any NFL game between two comparable teams is three, so with Denver +3, we’re getting a win or a push. My projected line is Jacksonville -1.5, so I think there’s value with Denver.

However, there’s a history of coaches on the hot seat flying to London and never coming back. These London games expose bad teams’ warts, and the Broncos have some serious issues with Nathaniel Hackett. I’ve seen some speculation that Hackett could be fired after this game, so I worry about Denver’s focus. Furthermore, the Jaguars play in London every year. They’re used to these games, whereas Hackett is not.

With that in mind, I’m going to side with the Jaguars at -3. This is a close call for me because I’d consider Denver at +3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Russell Wilson will play, as indicated by the line movement. However, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be 100 percent. I have more interest in Jacksonville now.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos will be getting back Wilson and Josey Jewell. This is obviously good news, but only if Wilson is healthy. He was limited-limited-full in this week’s practice. If he were healthy, wouldn’t he have been full the entire time? What if he looks 100 percent, then aggravates his hamstring? I can’t bet on the Broncos. It’s Jacksonville or nothing for me, and I’m leaning toward nothing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have continued to bet the Broncos, dropping this line down to -1 (Bookmaker). I understand it, but news broke about Nathaniel Hackett being fired if he loses this game. Teams have not done well in this situation in the past, and I don’t think Denver comes out of this game with a victory.

Chicago Bears (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (5-2)
Line: Cowboys by 10. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 13-13 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Titans -3

Jets +3

Seahawks +7

Patriots -8

The public crushed it in Week 7, at least prior to Monday night.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Ravens -1.5

Cowboys -10.5

Dolphins -3

Patriots -2.5

Bengals -3.5

The public is confident after a great Week 7. They’ve taken stances on some “obvious” sides.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Where did the Monday night version of Justin Fields come from? He threw some terrific passes, and he was dynamic as a runner. Fields has played horribly in other moments this year, so this performance came out of nowhere.

While Fields could continue to play well, I think it’s more likely that he regresses to the mean, especially in this matchup. Dallas has the top pass rush in the NFL, while the Bears’ already-miserable offensive line lost Lucas Patrick to injury. I don’t know how the Bears will block Micah Parsons and company.

The Bears might have some success moving the chains via the rushing attack, given that Dallas is just in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending the run. It helps that the Bears are finally giving more touches to Khalil Herbert, who is definitely a superior back compared to David Montgomery.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Most people were expecting an offensive explosion from Dallas last week. Could you blame them? Dak Prescott was returning for the first time since Week 1, and Dallas was matched up against Detroit’s miserable defense. However, the Cowboys scored just 10 points in the first 57 minutes of that game, as their final two touchdowns occurred because of turnovers.

I wasn’t shocked by this, as I bet Detroit heavily for a reason. I didn’t expect Prescott to perform well in his first game back because he was returning two weeks too early from his broken thumb. Prescott could once again have trouble moving the chains, especially given this matchup. The Bears have been much stronger versus the pass since getting top cornerback Jaylon Johnson back from injury.

The Cowboys, however, have an avenue to move the chains, and that would be via Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard runs. The Bears struggle to defend the rush, so Pollard could hit some big plays, only to have Elliott vulture scores away from him.

RECAP: I’d be all over the Cowboys if Prescott were healthy. I’m not convinced that he’s 100 percent coming off his broken thumb quite yet, so I don’t want to bet on a potentially injured quarterback, especially at this high of a line.

However, I’m still going to be on the Cowboys. It’s going to be difficult for the Bears to block the Cowboys. It’s just way too much of an edge for Dallas. Also, the advance line was -10 and then moved to -10.5, but it dropped into single digits because of what occurred Monday night. I think that was a fluky outcome, as Fields is due for some major regression against the league’s best pass rush.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Robert Quinn has been traded – check out my NFL Trade Grades page – so that’s a very slight bump in Dallas’ favor. I’m still not betting this game, and I haven’t seen any indication of sharp action.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears are now without three offensive linemen. Cody Whitehair and Lucas Patrick were already on injured reserve. Now, Larry Borom, who has been Chicago’s top pass protector this season, won’t be available. This seems disastrous against the Cowboys. Dallas won’t have Ezekiel Elliott, but this will be a blessing in disguise because Tony Pollard is a better player. Micah Parsons is questionable, but he was full-limited-limited, so I’d expect him to play. The biggest worry for the Cowboys is Dak Prescott’s thumb, but I still think Dallas will cover.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys will be missing some players in addition to Elliott like Noah Brown, Sam Williams, and Malik Hooker, but I’d still take the Cowboys. I’m not betting them, but the best line is -10 -104 at Bookmaker. There’s no sharp action of note.

Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5)
Line: Raiders by 1.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. This is regarding the recent slump:



I’m not quite sure what this guy is talking about, but the earthworms will be addressed sooner or later, given our trajectory.

I got lots of hate for our NFL Power Rankings:



Who doesn’t like clowns? They are amazing, so he must think I am amazing. I was grateful to see his reply.

Here’s more:



I feel sorry for this guy because he must have been dropped on his head as a baby, which is why he can’t read my power rankings. Hopefully they come out with a cure for this man’s condition soon.

One more:



Trash and clowns, two of my most favorite things in the world. Thank you, Twitter repliers!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Mike Mayock was criticized for many of his first-round picks, and rightfully so. People hated the Josh Jacobs selection as well, but Jacobs has finally transformed into the elite back Mayock envisioned several years ago. Jacobs has been incredible as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield the past several games.

Jacobs figures to thrive once again versus the Saints, who are much worse against the run this year than they have been in the past. New Orleans struggled to get the Cardinals off the field when Eno Benjamin was getting touches against them last Thursday night, so imagine what Jacobs will be able to accomplish.

Jacobs’ great running will only make things easier for Derek Carr, who has a tremendous matchup. The Saints have struggled mightily versus aerial attacks because they aren’t putting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks with their 27th-ranked pressure rate. Davante Adams figures to have a monstrous performance.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s unclear which quarterback of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton will start this game, and it’s unknown if Winston is even completely healthy. I’m sure the Saints would be content to keep rolling with Dalton if it weren’t for those back-breaking consecutive pick-sixes on Thursday night. One wasn’t his fault, but the other was an abysmal pass.

Dalton will have a chance to rebound if he starts because the Raiders are weak to the pass. Davis Mills just threw all over them; he even held a lead entering the fourth quarter when the Raiders were touchdown favorites. The Raiders have some liabilities in the secondary that can be exploited, especially if the Saints have a healthier receiving corps this week.

I would also expect Alvin Kamara to have a big game as a receiver out of the backfield. The Raiders are much stronger against the run than the pass, but their linebackers typically don’t cover very well.

RECAP: I hate that these teams are battling each other this week because they’re two of the most underrated teams in the NFL. The Saints would have a much better record if they hadn’t endured such bad turnover luck in most of their games. The Raiders, meanwhile, were very banged up in Weeks 2 and 3. They’ve been much better since getting most of their players back in Week 4. Since that week, the Raiders are seventh in net EPA.

It’s a close call, but I’ll side with the Raiders at -3 or less. We know that the Raiders will continue to perform on a high level compared to what we saw at the beginning of the year because they are healthier. We don’t know, however, if the Saints’ turnover misfortune will continue to fester. Perhaps they’ll fix things with extra time to prepare, but I’m going to side with what I believe to be the superior team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy Dalton will play. Some sharps liked that announcement because they bet the Saints on Wednesday evening. I’m putting New Orleans in my teaser.

SATURDAY NOTES: Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry will be out again, but the big news is that there is some sort of illness ripping through the Raiders’ locker room. About 15 players have been infected with this illness. They could be fine by Sunday, but you never know. It could impact them because of any sort of weight loss.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Darren Waller is out, but the questionable Raiders who had illnesses will play. Still, there’s no telling how that’ll affect them. There’s a bit of sharp action on the Saints, but nothing substantial. If you like the Raiders, the best line is -1.5 -108 at FanDuel.

Carolina Panthers (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-4)
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 41.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons have to make a quarterback change at some point soon. Arthur Smith doesn’t even trust Marcus Mariota to throw the ball in a huge deficit, as if there’s some great risk. It’s remarkable that Mariota attempted just 13 passes despite trailing by double digits for most the Cincinnati game.

The Falcons will obviously attempt to run the ball down the Panthers’ throat. This didn’t work so well for the Buccaneers last week, with Leonard Fournette being limited to a mere 19 yards on eight carries. The Panthers have one of the top rush defenses in the NFL, so I don’t expect Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley to have any success.

Marcus Mariota, meanwhile, will move the chains on occasion when scrambling, but he could have issues if Smith is brazen enough to call some pass plays. The Panthers blitz heavily, and Mariota hasn’t handled extra pass rushers well this year.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have been demolished in some games this year. Two of their double-digit losses involved battling teams with terrific pass rushes, including the 49ers. Carolina has a miserable blocking unit, so it’s only natural that it would be blown out in such games.

However, the Panthers have handled teams well when their quarterback hasn’t been harassed. They nearly defeated the Giants and Browns early in the season, and they just upset the Buccaneers. The Falcons produce less pressure on the quarterback than any other team in the NFL, and they struggle to cover receivers as a consequence. Phillip Walker looked like a functional quarterback last week, and I expect him to play well versus Atlanta’s miserable defense.

The Panthers won’t have as much success running the ball against the Falcons, who are better versus the rush than the pass. They just limited Joe Mixon rather well, so they shouldn’t have an issue against Christian McCaffrey’s replacements.

RECAP: It really sucks that we missed out on +6.5 and +6. I saw this spread open at +6.5 and I said out loud, “Wait, this spread doesn’t make any sense.” The sharps dropped the number down to +6 on Monday, which was still too high. I figured we had enough time for me to write this pick up on Tuesday and lock in the +6, if needed.

Alas, that’s not the case. The sharps continued to pound the Panthers down to the current number of +4.5. It blows, but I still really like the Panthers. I don’t see why the Falcons are favored by more than three over anyone. In fact, I made this line Atlanta -2.5, so we’re getting the ultimate key number of three if my spread is correct.

The Falcons stink. Everyone likes them way more than they should because they’re 6-1 against the spread, but many of their covers were complete bulls**t. I’ve detailed this many times, so I won’t go through it again, but Atlanta should have been blown out on several occasions. If that happened, we wouldn’t be seeing such a high number.

Meanwhile, the Panthers can function in this sort of matchup because their dreadful offensive line won’t be exploited by the worst pass rush in the NFL. They found some rhythm against the Buccaneers last week, so I think we’ll continue to see them play well with a new quarterback and new coach. I think they can win outright, so I obviously will bet them highly at +4.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the Panthers down from +6.5 to +4.5. They haven’t hit +4.5 yet, but I suspect they will at some point, so I may lock this in early at some point.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Falcons won’t have A.J. Terrell, so their secondary will be down two cornerbacks. This makes it more likely that the Panthers will get a back-door cover, but they may not even need it. I’m going to lock in the +4 just in case this spread falls to +3.5. I’m also betting a unit on the moneyline (+176).

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were betting the Panthers heavily earlier in the week, but not at +4. The best line is +4 -109 at Bookmaker.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
Line: Eagles by 11. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Steelers have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL as a result of their inability to pressure the quarterback with T.J. Watt sidelined. Yet, they’ve surrendered just 34 total points in the past two weeks to receiving corps comprised of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin.

I don’t know how this has happened, but I wouldn’t bet on it continuing. Jalen Hurts is having an MVP-caliber season, so he’s not struggling like Tom Brady or returning from a multi-week absence like Tua Tagovailoa. He has some talented receivers at his disposal, so I expect the Eagles to have plenty of offensive success.

Miles Sanders should thrive as well. He had a long touchdown run the last time he battled the Steelers, and Pittsburgh continues to be weak versus rushing attacks.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Kenny Pickett has looked good at times this year, but he’s in for an extremely difficult matchup this Sunday. The Eagles have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, so they shouldn’t have any sort of issue getting to Pickett behind his pedestrian offensive line.

It’s difficult to envision the Steelers doing anything on this side of the ball. Their receivers will be smothered by Philadelphia’s dual shutdown cornerbacks, while Najee Harris will continue to struggle to find anything on the ground versus a stout rush defense. Pat Freiermuth has the best chance of succeeding, given that the Eagles have a tight end-funnel pass defense.

RECAP: Mike Tomlin is amazing as an underdog. He’s 48-27 against the spread when getting points throughout his career. I’m ashamed that I didn’t bet on him versus Tampa Bay and Miami. Those should have been medium-sized plays on the Steelers, but I’ve been handicapping poorly in addition to having bad luck in the games I’ve called correctly (i.e. Lions in Week 7, Dolphins in Week 6, Buccaneers in Week 5.)

I will not be on the Steelers in this matchup, however, and my reasoning is that while Tomlin often covers as an underdog, he hasn’t had success against the elite teams in the NFL. Recall last year when the Steelers battled the Chiefs twice and were blown out on both occasions. There was also the Buffalo game a few weeks ago, which was a blood bath. The Eagles are the third-best team in my NFL Power Rankings, and all the metrics support that. In fact, the Eagles are second in net EPA, only behind Buffalo.

I think the Eagles can easily take care of business, much like they did versus Jacksonville and Washington as relatively large favorites. My only concern is that the Eagles could have one eye on the Thursday night game. It’s only against the Texans, but preparing to play a football game on just three days of rest is difficult. That said, it’s more likely that the Eagles will be focused on the Steelers, given that they’re sort of an in-state rival. I know they play against each other once every four years, but people make a big deal about it in Pennsylvania, especially because the two teams merged into the Steagles during World War II.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Robert Quinn’s presence could add some excitement, making it more likely that the Eagles will beat the number. However, there’s still a chance that there’s a back-door cover, as Philadelphia may pull its starters a bit too early.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles should win easily, though a back-door cover scares me. I’d rather bet the first-half line than anything.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp action coming in on the Eagles on Sunday morning, moving the line to -11.5 in some books. You can still get -11 -110 at Bovada. I’d rather bet the first-half line.

Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Detroit Lions (1-5)
Line: Dolphins by 3.5. Total: 52.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins looked like they were going to score a billion points on the Steelers when they established 13-0 lead after one quarter. Yet, they mustered just three points the rest of the way, as they struggled to counter the adjustments Mike Tomlin made, especially after they ran out of scripted plays. Teams always have so much success with these 15 or so scripted plays to start the game, which makes me wonder why they don’t script every single play ahead of time. They can always make changes on the fly if it stops working, so why stop at 15?

At any rate, the Dolphins have yet another great matchup on paper versus the Lions, though Detroit restricted Dallas to just 10 points in the first 57 minutes of game action last week. However, Dak Prescott was not 100 percent coming off his thumb injury. Tua Tagovailoa has the weapons to exploit the liabilities in Detroit’s secondary. That said, the Lions blitz often, and Tagovailoa isn’t as sharp when seeing extra pass rushers, so this could be a way for Detroit to limit the Dolphins.

The Lions, however, will have to worry about Raheem Mostert. The Dolphins finally have found a rushing game of sorts, as Mostert has eclipsed 75 rushing yards in two of his previous three games. It’ll likely be three of four after this contest, given the Lions’ severe struggles against the run.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Perhaps the most tilting thing about Detroit’s failed cover in Dallas last week was that Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was ruled out for a concussion by the NFL’s new independent neurologist, didn’t even have a concussion. If I were St. Brown, I would sue the NFL and this neurologist for malpractice.

St. Brown will be on the field again, and he should be able to dominate Miami’s struggling secondary. The Dolphins have multiple injuries to their defensive backfield, so Jared Goff will be able to exploit this with his weapons. Goff will have all the time he needs in the pocket, which should bode well for Detroit because Goff has completed 68 percent of his passes this year when not seeing any pressure.

There’s also a chance D’Andre Swift may return to action following a long absence. I received word Friday evening that Swift would likely be sidelined, which is why I wanted to wait on a Detroit +7 line on Sunday. It’s too early to know if Swift will be available this time, but if he is, I like his chances against Miami’s linebackers.

RECAP: I still can’t believe what happened in the Cowboys-Lions game. Again, St. Brown was lost to a non-concussion concussion on the second drive, and Jamaal Williams fumbled at the 1-yard line the fourth quarter, and yet Detroit trailed 10-6 with three minutes remaining. And the kicker is that St. Brown didn’t even suffer a concussion! Some quack neurologist ruled him out for no reason. Such bulls**t.

I’m sticking with my thesis that the Lions are better than people think they are. When healthy, they trashed the Redskins and were on the verge of beating the Vikings before they got hurt. St. Brown will play, and Swift could return as well. The Lions should be able to throw all over the Dolphins, who weren’t very impressive Sunday night. They scored just 16 points against a poor pass defense, so I’m not convinced they’ll throw all over Detroit.

I don’t think the Dolphins should be three-point road favorites. I’m more than happy to take Detroit at this price, as we’re getting four major key numbers, including the two most prominent ones. I wish we still had +3.5, which was the opening line, but the sharps bet that quickly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on the Dolphins at +3.5, but not +3. D’Andre Swift has practiced, but he also practiced last week and didn’t play.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions have more injuries than expected, as DeShon Elliott and Mike Hughes will be out, further hurting the secondary. However, D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown will be on the field together for the first time since Week 3, giving the Lions a great chance to pull the upset. I’m going to lock in +3.5 -105 just in case this line falls to +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was stupid to lock this in at +3.5 -105 because +4 has appeared at Bookmaker and FanDuel. This is strange line movement because Amon-Ra St. Brown was declared active. There’s no significant sharp action worth noting.

Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
Line: Vikings by 4. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It seemed like the DFS world was in love with Kirk Cousins versus the Dolphins, but I didn’t like the matchup. Miami blitzes at a healthy rate, and Cousins happens to be poor versus the blitz. The result was the Vikings generating just 234 net yards of offense. Outside of a couple of big plays, the Vikings did nothing, as their scoring unit continuously went three-and-out during the afternoon.

Cousins’ matchup bodes poorly here as well. The Cardinals blitz even more often than the Dolphins, so Cousins will continue to struggle. Some may point to Arizona’s defensive issues as a possibility for Cousins to succeed, but Arizona has been solid on this side of the ball since Week 2. The Cardinals rank eighth in defensive EPA since after the debacle versus the Chiefs when they were missing half their starters.

The Vikings won’t be completely inept offensively. They have too much talent to be completely locked down, as we saw in the Miami game. However, outside of some big Justin Jefferson plays, it’s difficult to envision much happening.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: There’s a huge dichotomy when it comes to Kyler Murray’s record with DeAndre Hopkins and without him. Murray becomes a completely different quarterback with Hopkins on the field. We saw evidence of that last Thursday. Murray struggled versus Seattle’s woeful defense in Week 6, but had a strong performance against the Saints with Hopkins playing for the first time.

Hopkins’ availability bodes poorly for the Vikings. Minnesota’s secondary is a mess and hasn’t been tested very much this year. In the three games against quality receiver competition, the Vikings are 1-2 against the spread, with the lone cover being a completely bogus one at Miami. The other two games were a blowout loss at Philadelphia and a near-loss to the Lions, which was only a victory because Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift got hurt.

Another positive to consider for the Cardinals is that Rodney Hudson may return from injury this week. The talented center has missed action earlier, but with a mini-bye week to recover, he’ll be back to help against a middling-at-best pass rush.

RECAP: The Vikings, in my opinion, are the most overrated team in the NFL. They’ve done nothing to impress me. They dominated the Packers in Week 1 when Green Bay was missing half of its roster, and the Packers haven’t exactly been great since. They needed St. Brown and Swift to get hurt to overcome the Lions. They barely beat the Saints, who were missing Alvin Kamara, Jameis Winston, and Michael Thomas. They were outgained by 224 yards by Miami! The Vikings are just 17th in net EPA. They are a mediocre football team wearing a 5-1 Halloween costume.

The Cardinals, conversely, are underrated. As mentioned, they’re a top-10 defensive team after Week 1, and Murray will be playing better now that Hopkins has returned. According to net EPA since Week 2, the Cardinals are eighth. And yet, this spread is above three. I personally made this spread -1.5, but if we’re going by net EPA, Arizona should be favored. We’re getting so much value, including four major key numbers, with the Cardinals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve gotten so many responses from Viking fans telling me that I’m an idiot for picking the Cardinals to win. The fact that they’re so angry tells me that they know I’m right, but want me to feed their delusions. I look forward to licking their tears, much like Eric Cartman did with Scott Tenorman.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals will be missing three interior offensive linemen, but their backups have done well in relief, so it’s not a huge concern. The Vikings don’t have a great pass rush either, so I expect Arizona’s offense to function normally. I’m going to lock this in now just in case this line drops to +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: D.J. Humphries has been ruled out, which sucks. I’d adjust this to three or four units if I could. Still, I like Arizona quite a bit despite not getting the best line. The sharps have been on both sides of this game.

New England Patriots (3-4) at New York Jets (5-2)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 40.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

Video of the Week: It’s time for more Steamed Hams. Here, Principal Skinner makes terrible food:



I lost it when there was a ham in the center of the Jello squares.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets have a 5-2 record right now, but that seems to be on the verge of collapse. They were outplayed by the Brett Rypien-led Broncos and lost two key pieces of the offense. Breece Hall’s game-breaking ability is no longer available, and neither is the glue of the offensive line. Alijah Vera-Tucker had played three positions because of injuries elsewhere. His absence will be enormous.

The Patriots are weaker to the run than the pass, but I don’t think the Jets can exploit that liability with Hall and Vera-Tucker sidelined. New York acquired James Robinson, but it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to play in his first game with his new team. Besides, Vera-Tucker’s absence will make the Jets’ rushing attack less potent.

The Patriots can generate a good pass rush, so I’m worried about Zach Wilson’s protection. Wilson hasn’t had to do much during this winning streak, but Bill Belichick will make sure that changes. If so, Wilson will be in trouble versus Belichick, who is the master of deceiving young quarterbacks, provided they don’t scramble very much.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of young quarterbacks, Bailey Zappe should draw the start this time. Belichick made the mistake of going back to Mac Jones, which seemed foolish because Jones may not have been 100-percent healthy. Zappe has been sharp in relief of Jones, so I don’t see why Jones would continue to get the nod.

That said, Zappe has a very difficult matchup in this contest. The Jets have a solid pass rush, and it’s not like the Patriots pass protect very well. New York also has some excellent cornerbacks, though they won’t be as significant in this matchup because the Patriots spread the ball around so much.

The Jets are also stout versus the run, so it’ll be difficult for Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris to find any rushing lanes. That said, Stevenson could be effective as a receiver out of the backfield, given the Jets’ woes at linebacker.

RECAP: The Patriots were absolutely embarrassed Monday night. Teams coming off blowout losses on Monday night generally have a difficult time covering (40-58 ATS) because they need to make some major adjustments and have less time to do so. However, I don’t think the Patriots have much to fix. They always struggle against scrambling quarterbacks. Besides, if there’s one coach who can improve his team’s outlook on a shortened week, it’s Belichick. It’s a small sample size, but Belichick is 3-2 against the spread off a Monday night blowout loss. For something with a much larger sample size, Belichick is 34-15 against the spread after losing as a favorite!

Belichick has some major advantages in this game. One, he’s battling a young quarterback who doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing. Justin Fields qualifies as such as well, but Fields was able to use his mobility to nullify the mental aspect of the game. Wilson can’t do that. Belichick, to quote a Hall of Fame running back, debacled Wilson in two meetings last year. The Patriots won those games by a combined score of 79-19. Two, the Jets have suffered some injuries lately. Belichick should be able to exploit some of the liabilities the Jets have now, especially in the wake of losing Vera-Tucker.

This spread was New England -2.5 prior to the Monday night game and seemed to be trending toward -3. Now, it’s -1.5 because of what people saw on national TV. I like that we’re getting the most likely result of this game – Patriots winning by three – as well as three key numbers by betting New England.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is back up to -2.5 because … Mac Jones is starting? I would have seen this as a negative. I would rather see Bailey Zappe, but I’m still willing to bet two or three units on New England.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still don’t understand why Mac Jones is staritng. I would have preferred the Patriots more if Bailey Zappe were getting the nod. I’m going to lock this in just in case this line moves up to -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was wrong to lock in the Cardinals and Lions, but at least I got one right. The sharps have bet the Patriots up to -3. The best line is -3 -109 at Bookmaker.