Week 8 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 26, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games

Cincinnati Bengals (0-7) at Houston Texans (2-4)
Line: Texans by 9. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Texans -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Texans -10.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Injuries: Bengals: OUT: RB Kenny Irons (IR), OLB Keith Rivers (IR). Texans: OUT: RB Chris Brown (IR), RB Chris Taylor (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown, KR Andre Davis.

No one lost last week, so there are still only FIVE people remaining in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. I’ll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a picture of the four villains Hiro needs to find, detailed discussion about Episode 6 Dying of the Light and very hot pictures of Claire. Sexy time!

I’m obviously bringing up this lead because the Texans look like an easy survivor selection. And why not? Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t throw the ball longer than 10 yards downfield, while Houston’s offensive is extremely explosive.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Let’s begin with the Texans, who are now averaging 23.3 points per game after a very slow start. In his last three games, Matt Schaub has thrown for 953 yards, six touchdowns and two picks. He has completed 68.1 percent of his passes for a sterling YPA of 8.4. Andre Johnson, meanwhile, is ripping secondaries apart, and looks like he’s going to lead the league in receiving by the end of the year.

I can’t see the Bengals containing the Texans. I know I’ve talked up Cincinnati’s defense, citing that they’re not that bad (18th against the run, ninth versus the pass), but without Keith Rivers, they’re going to take a major step backward. My projected Defensive Rookie of the Year (see teasers and prop picks toward the bottom of the page), Rivers was having a phenomenal opening campaign in this league. In seven starts, Rivers had 37 tackles, an interception and a forced fumble, and played on all three downs.

Without Rivers, you can knock both of Cincinnati’s rankings down 8-10 slots each. In Rivers’ absence, Mewelde Moore had a huge game for the Steelers. You’ll see the same thing out of Ahman Green and Steve Slaton, setting up play-action opportunities for Schaub.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Carson Palmer is out again, so Fitzpatrick remains the quarterback for Cincinnati. Seriously, if you’re a Bengals player, how do you get up for a game when Fitzpatrick is your signal caller? Not only can he not throw the ball longer than 10 yards, he also happens to be one of the ugliest men in the league.

The good news for the Bengals is that Fitzpatrick won’t be sacked a billion times for a change. Houston’s pass rush is non-existent, as it couldn’t even get to Dan Orlovsky last week.

With plenty of time to throw, Fitzpatrick could generate two or three long drives (he had one against Pittsburgh), keeping Houston’s offense off the field long enough, which would give his team a good chance to cover.

RECAP: The Texans have the offense to cover 10 points, but their defense is so abysmal that another cheap, backdoor touchdown or 54-yard debacalatory field goal is very probable.

I would not recommend betting this game. The line is perfect, and the only edge I can find are three trends that tell us to take the Bengals (scroll down a bit). That said, there’s a ton of action on Cincinnati, and even though line movement is matching the money, I don’t feel comfortable backing a public underdog.

SURVIVOR PICK: I’m going with the Jets. I know the Texans look easy, but the Bengals are desperate to get their first win. Plus, Houston’s defense sucks. I trust the Jets more to beat an abysmal Chiefs squad.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Bengals have to be playing extra hard to avoid going 0-8, right?

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
The Bengals are a huge publicly backed dog, though the line has dropped from -10 to -9.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 67% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Zero Heroes: 0-7 teams are 3-1 ATS since 2000.

Texans are 9-20 ATS after a win (3-4 since 2007).

Opening Line: Texans -10.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Bengals 16
Bengals +9 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 45 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Texans 35, Bengals 6

Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)
Line: Jaguars by 7. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Jaguars -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Jaguars -7.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Browns: OUT: WR Joe Jurevicius, TE Kellen Winslow Jr.* (SUSP), G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR). Jaguars: OUT: WR Reggie Williams, G Vince Manuwai(IR), G Maurice Williams (IR).

The sixth installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt. Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Week 6: Dennis Green blows a record lead and has to be taken to the mental hospital!

Now, in Week 7, Al Davis finds proof that Emmitt and Green conspired to lose on purpose. Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

Public perception is a funny thing. Take a look at the Browns, for example. They were considered the AFC North favorite in August, but after a 28-10 debacling at the hands of Dallas, everyone gambled against them the following week. Unfortunately for most bettors, Cleveland covered against Pittsburgh. After putting up a tough fight against the Steelers, the public sided with Cleveland at Baltimore. The Ravens won 28-10. Coming off their bye, no one gave them much of a chance against the Giants. Safe to say everyone was shocked when they won 35-14. Last week, many figured they would hang with the Redskins. Instead they were dominated, though they covered because of a Clinton Portis fumble and a subsequent cheap, backdoor touchdown.

It seems like the public has been wrong about the Browns every step of the way. No one can figure them out. I would say most people don’t give them much of a shot here. I guess that means they’re going to win by 21, huh?

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Derek Anderson is like Rasputin. Just when you think he’s about to get benched, he comes back to life and has a great performance. He saved himself in the second half of the Cincinnati game after three poor starts. Then, he clobbers the Giants, only to regress back to futility at Washington. Which Anderson are we going to see this time?

If his defensive opponent is any indication, Anderson should be able to bounce back. Jacksonville can’t get to the quarterback; the team has just eight sacks on the year! Consequently, they’ve very poor against the pass, ranking 21st in that category.

Anderson will get some help from Jamal Lewis. The Jaguars used to dominate against the run, but Marcus Stroud is gone and Mike Peterson has lost a step. Lewis will trample the league’s 23rd-ranked rush defense, setting up short-yardage situations for Anderson.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I mentioned this on the front page of my Week 8 NFL Picks page. Including the preseason, David Garrard has just two solid performances all year, which happen to be against the defensively challenged Texans and Broncos.

Fortunately for Garrard, Cleveland’s stop unit is nearly as abysmal. Despite the numerous upgrades the Browns made to their defensive line, they rank 28th against the run. They also have just eight sacks on the year, and they’re 22nd versus the pass.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor will have a field day running through wide-open lanes, allowing Garrard to torch Cleveland’s joke of a secondary with ease. The only downside for Jacksonville’s offense is that Garrard’s top target, Matt Jones, has been suspended for three games. I guess that’s only fair, as Kellen Winslow Jr. is also out for this contest.

RECAP: On the front page of my Week 8 NFL Picks page, I list Jacksonville as overrated and Cleveland as underrated, so if you’re guessing that I like the Browns, you’re definitely right.

Cleveland will be playing for its season here. They can’t afford to fall to 2-5. I think you’ll see the same desperation they had against the Giants on Monday night.

I like the idea of buying them off a sloppy loss and fading Jacksonville in the role of a favorite. The Jaguars haven’t beaten anyone by more than seven all year, yet they’re suddenly supposed to cover a touchdown? I don’t see that happening.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

Once again, the season is on the line for the Browns. The Jaguars, meanwhile, know they can’t catch the Titans. They’re sitting comfortable atop the wild card standings.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

After some early action on Cleveland, the public likes Jacksonville. Go figure.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 65% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Road Warrior: Romeo Crennel is 7-0 ATS in his second consecutive road game (6-0 after loss).

Opening Line: Jaguars -7.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 70 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Jaguars 27, Browns 24
Browns +7 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 42 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Browns 23, Jaguars 17

Seattle Seahawks (1-5) at San Francisco 49ers (2-5)
Line: 49ers by 5.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): 49ers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): 49ers -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Seneca Wallace, WR Logan Payne (IR), G Rob Sims (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Sean Locklear. 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), FB Zak Keasey (IR), DE Ray McDonald, OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR), S Dashon Goldson.

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “Vince Young is not a passing quarterback. He do not stay in the pocket and he runs.” (Commentary: Ahh… so that’s why Young was benched. Now I understand.)

2. “The Patriots ran over 200 running backs.” (Commentary: Really? All I saw were Sammy Morris, Heath Evans, Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. I must have slipped into a coma when the other 196-plus running backs ran the ball.)

3. “The Ravens does… does… do not have the ability to put up points…” (Commentary: The funny thing isn’t that Emmitt luckily corrected himself on the third try. It’s that when Emmitt finally said “do,” Steve Young nodded his head to let Emmitt know he chose the right word.)

I hope ESPN keeps Emmitt on TV for the next 50 years. He’s a comical gold mine. And I also hope that the public keeps overrated crappy teams like the 49ers, making them 5-point favorites when they should never be laying more than a field goal in any game – even against an Arena League team.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: So, J.T. O’Sullivan has to cover five points, huh? That should be interesting. On paper it works. Seattle has major problems in its secondary, so Isaac Bruce and the emerging Josh Morgan should be able to get open downfield.

However, it doesn’t work that way. First of all, Mike Martz is going to shy away from the run at some point. Seattle is 13th versus the rush, so maybe once Martz sees that he can’t achieve a first down every single time he gives Frank Gore a carry, he’ll call passing plays on every down. Hey, this happens every week. I’m just giving you the facts.

Second, while O’Sullivan has solid arm strength, he’s an interception and fumble machine. While Seattle stops the run well, its defensive forte is getting to the quarterback (14 sacks). O’Sullivan has been sacked 29 times this year, though that’s not an excuse for his 10 interceptions and nine fumbles.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Seneca Wallace looked awful against the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay has one of the top defenses in the NFL. They can make plenty of average quarterbacks look abysmal.

Wallace started four games in 2006. In those contests, he went 2-2, completing at least 60 percent of his passes in three of those games. He threw eight touchdowns and five picks in that time period. The 49ers’ stop unit doesn’t really compare to Tampa Bay’s, so I expect more success from Wallace.

Seattle should be able to run the ball as well; the 49ers are 14th versus the rush, but defensive end Ray McDonald, who has emerged as a very good player, is out for this game.

RECAP: I like the Seahawks a lot for a number of reasons. They’re a very good buy low. Everyone is down on them because of Wallace’s play on national TV, though I just proved that he’s not half bad. The coaching change in San Francisco is huge as well. You can’t fire a coach six days before a game! The only applicable time is during a bye – that way, the new coach has time to prepare. Poor Mike Singletary has to be going ballistic right now.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

You can’t fire a coach six days before a game! The 49ers have to be befuddled right now. Think back to Bobby Petrino last year. Atlanta was “blowed out” by Tampa Bay right after he left. Meanwhile, the Seahawks want to save some face after getting debacled on national TV.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
Everyone watched the Seahawks get debacled on Sunday night. Now, everyone wants to fade them.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 74% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Seahawks have won 8 of the last 11 meetings.

Road Warrior: Mike Holmgren is 5-1 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss.

Seahawks are 7-14 ATS on the road since 2006.

Opening Line: 49ers -5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Seahawks 20, 49ers 17
Seahawks +5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 41.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Seahawks 34, 49ers 13

New York Giants (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Steelers -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Steelers -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), WR David Tyree, DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR), K Lawrence Tynes. Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Willie Parker*, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), WR Santonio Holmes*, G Kendall Simmons (IR), P Daniel Sepulveda (IR).

It’s time for the Bo-Bo Fantasy Update! If you don’t know what this is, check out the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Ever. Bo-Bo was actually tied 69-69 in the middle of the third quarter of the Broncos-Patriots game, despite the fact that he started Le’Ron McClain and Chester Taylor at running back (I guess he didn’t want to pick up Dominic Rhodes). Unfortunately, Bo-Bo’s dreams came crashing down as Jay Cutler threw a touchdown, eliminating the possibility of his defense (New England) of pitching a shutout. Bo-Bo is now 2-5, but at least he was busy having sex with 100 girls at once and then purchasing Six Flags to even notice.

This is the penultimate game on the schedule, but as you’ll notice, it’s not on Sunday night. There is no Sunday night game this week because of the World Series. The NFL eliminates its Week 8 Sunday-nighter every single year in anticipation of losing viewers to baseball. I don’t get it. No one outside of Philadelphia and Tampa Bay is going to be watching lazy, tobacco-chewing men stand in the outfield. The NFL should show some guts and televise Bengals-Texans during the World Series game, just to prove that a crappy football contest can out-draw the Fall Classic. Hey, football betting degenerates like me would watch that over boring baseball.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Both of these teams are among the NFL’s elite, but there is one fundamental difference between these two squads, other than their defensive alignment. New York can pass block. Pittsburgh can’t.

We saw it when the Steelers took on the Eagles in Week 3. Pittsburgh couldn’t keep Philadelphia out of the backfield, and Ben Roethlisberger took 5,000 sacks in the second quarter alone. Unfortunately for Roethlisberger, the Giants specialize in getting to the quarterback; they already have 21 sacks on the year.

Willie Parker will be back, unless he steps in any more holes, but that doesn’t really matter because Pittsburgh will have problems running the ball. The Giants are eighth against the rush. Just last week, they limited Frank Gore to just 11 yards on 11 carries.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While Pittsburgh has already yielded 19 sacks on the year, New York has surrendered only six.

Even without Brandon Jacobs trampling the opposing defense – Pittsburgh is third against opposing ground attacks – Eli Manning should be able to have enough time in the pocket to locate Plaxico Burress and his other targets downfield.

The Steelers have a top-of-the-line pass rush (25 sacks), so they need to somehow get past one of the elite offensive fronts in the NFL and rattle Manning, which is pretty difficult to do.

RECAP: I like getting a field goal with the Giants, who in my opinion, are slightly better than the Steelers, and tend to play better on the road.

You could also argue that the Giants need this a bit more than Pittsburgh does; they’re in a tough division with Washington and Dallas looming right behind them. The Steelers, on the other hand, are two games above second-place Baltimore, whom they’ve beaten already.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

While both teams are 5-1, you have to say this game means more to the Giants. If the Steelers lose, no big deal – they’re still a billion games ahead of everyone in the AFC North. If the Giants lose, they may relinquish sole possession of the NFC East.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 50% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Giants are 16-5 ATS on the road since 2006.

Steelers are 24-8 ATS in October since 2000.

Steelers are 10-4 ATS in October home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 49-18 as a starter (40-27 ATS).

Opening Line: Steelers -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 43 degrees. Mild winds, 15 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Steelers 20
Giants +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 42 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Giants 21, Steelers 14

Indianapolis Colts (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (6-0)
Line: Titans by 4. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Titans -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Titans -4.
Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Titans.

Injuries: Colts: OUT: RB Mike Hart (IR), OT Tony Ugoh, G Ryan Lilja, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, S Bob Sanders*, KR T.J. Rushing (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 8 NFL Look-Alike Thread, featuring two horrible actors and Norv Turner.

Let’s go over the matchups before I delve into which team I like and why:

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts’ offense has been uncharacteristically bad this year. They’ve only looked good once, as they beat the Ravens 31-3 two weeks ago, thanks to multiple Joe Flacco and Le’Ron McClain turnovers. Excluding that victory, here are the rest of Indianapolis’ point totals: 13, 18, 21, 31 and 14. That 31 was a byproduct of Sage Rosenchoker’s epic meltdown in Houston.

Everyone and their evil stepmother thought Indianapolis had turned it around by beating the Ravens, but that wasn’t the case. Peyton Manning tossed two interceptions, both of which were pick-sixes, against the Packers. Meanwhile, Dominic Rhodes found the end zone twice but couldn’t gain more than four yards per carry versus one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL.

I never thought I’d say this before this season, but how are the Colts supposed to move the chains against the Titans? Tennessee has the best defense in the league. There are no weaknesses. Rhodes won’t be able to gain anything on the ground, putting Manning in unfavorable situations against a dynamic pass rush.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: They’re not the Broncos or anything, but the Colts are really horrendous against the run. They rank 25th against it, and just allowed Ryan Grant to eclipse the 100-yard plateau for the first time all season. Tennessee runs the ball extremely well with Chris Johnson and LenDale White, so it’s possible the two could combine for more than 300 rushing yards for the second consecutive week.

With Johnson and White ripping off six yards per carry, Kerry Collins will have tons of time to operate in the pocket on short-yardage downs. Collins has been sacked only once all year, which is an amazing statistic. Indianapolis can’t get to the quarterback (10 sacks), so I can’t see it containing Tennessee’s scoring unit.

RECAP: Monday night games are a lot different than your average Sunday contest. The fans are more drunk, the players are more pumped up and there is generally so much more energy all around.

Teams who haven’t hosted Monday night games for a while generally get really motivated when Urkel, Jaws, Tony-K, Glass Eyeball Man (sounds like a Mega Man boss), Steve Young and Emmitt come to town. We saw it last year when the Bills nearly knocked off the Cowboys as double-digit dogs. We saw it two weeks ago when the Browns debacled the 9-point favorite Giants by 21.

And I have a feeling we’ll see it here as well. The Titans haven’t hosted a Monday night game since 2004. All the Tennessee players will be pumped up to show the nation just how good they are.

Furthermore, this is Tennessee’s chance to establish itself as the new king of the AFC South. Sure, they’re ahead of the Colts in the standings, but this is their chance to prove that they’re legitimately better than Manning and company. This is a huge game for the Titans, who should be able to feed off the emotion of the crowd and win by double digits.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

When’s the last time the Titans hosted a Monday night game? I had to check Wikipedia for the answer. That would be 2004. It’s been four years since the people of Tennessee have been able to root for their squad in front of the nation on Monday night. They’ll be just as pumped up as the people in Cleveland two weeks ago and Buffalo last season. This also happens to be a huge statement game for the Titans. They’re ahead of the Colts, but they can establish themselves as the dominant squad in the AFC South with a victory.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
The public likes Tennessee a bit.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 60% (240,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 8 of the last 10 meetings (Titans 4-0 ATS since 2006).

Road Warrior: Coaches are 115-78 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss since 1996 (Tony Dungy just 2-2).

Colts are 29-20 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.

Opening Line: Titans -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 39 degrees. Mild winds, 11 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Titans 34, Colts 17
Titans -4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 40.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Titans 31, Colts 21

Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games
Raiders at Ravens, Chiefs at Jets, Bills at Dolphins, Falcons at Eagles, Buccaneers at Cowboys, Cardinals at Panthers, Chargers vs. Saints, Rams at Patriots, Redskins at Lions

Printable version of Week 8 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Patriots -2 and Redskins -1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

Live Dog: Raiders +290 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Saints +140 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$140

Live Dog: Buccaneers +110 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Cardinals +180 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Browns +255 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$255

Live Dog: Giants +120 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$120

Live Dog: Seahawks +190 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$190

Pyschology Parlay: Dolphins +1, Rams +8, Saints +3, Browns +7, Seahawks +5.5, Titans -4 (.5 Units to win 23.4) — Correct; +$2,340

Parlay Hedge: Colts +4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)