NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)

NFL Picks (2010): 34-27-2 (+$1,925)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 4, 4:50 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Line: Colts by 8. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Colts -5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Colts -6.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

Two opportunities to win money, if you’re into that sort of thing:

We are running our NFL Picking Contest again on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up. It’s a new month, so our Picking Contest is starting over.

Also, if you’re still alive, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool. There are about 800 entries remaining out of 1,946. The Redskins, 49ers, Texans and Chargers knocked out about 100 people in Week 3. Why people avoided the Patriots, Ravens or Vikings is beyond me.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: “Oh, so Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez are out, and Reggie Wayne is blanketed by Champ Bailey? Let’s just use this undrafted rookie named Blair White and have him score a touchdown!” The Colts are a machine.

If the Colts are a machine, the Jaguars are a trash can. They absolutely stink. They’re 22nd against the run – so Joseph Addai should rebound – but they’re epically horrific against the pass, ranking dead last against it. Jacksonville’s secondary has surrendered a disgraceful 9.9 YPA, so Peyton Manning could throw for 50,000 yards in this game alone.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Will the Jaguars be able to keep up with the Colts? They usually do. The Colts are perennially weak against the run, and Jacksonville’s ground attack is its forte. Maurice Jones-Drew has struggled this season, but he hasn’t battled a defense as weak against the rush as Indianapolis yet.

With Jones-Drew presumably running well, David Garrard should be able to rebound off two horrific performances. Kyle Orton torched Indianapolis’ secondary for 476 yards last week.

Garrard obviously won’t be as good, but he has had success against this defense in the past. In Garrard’s last meeting against the Colts, he was 23-of-40 for 223 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.

RECAP: Forget what you saw last week from Jacksonville. Just wipe it from your memory. The Jaguars didn’t care about playing the Eagles. Instead, they were more focused on this game.

This is Jacksonville’s Super Bowl. The team circled this game when the schedule was released. The Jaguars would love nothing more than to slay their arch rival. They’ve been preparing for this contest since they last lost to the Colts on Dec. 17.

This spread is out of control because Colts-Jaguars games are always close. Always. Fourteen of the previous 16 meetings have been decided by eight points or fewer. The Colts are 12-4 straight up in those contests, but I’m not concerned with who wins this game. All I care about is whether or not Jacksonville will cover this spread. Based on how well they know Indianapolis and how much this contest means to them, I’m confident that they will.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

This is Jacksonville’s Super Bowl. The Colts could care less about the Jaguars.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

The Jaguars embarrassed themselves against the Eagles. This seems like easy cash.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 84% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: 14 of the last 16 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 12-4).

Colts are 40-25 ATS on the road since 2002.

Peyton Manning is 31-19 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Jack Del Rio is 6-1 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Opening Line: Colts -7.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Jaguars 24
Jaguars +8 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 31, Colts 28

Houston Texans (2-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-2)
Line: Texans by 3.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Texans -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Texans -6.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Texans.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 27, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Rite Aid and CVS Jerks. 2) QB Nacho E-mailer. 3) Hyper Girl.

Also, if you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 3, Episode 3 has been posted – The Patriots battle the Jets, who have a ton of problems, including a holdout, a broke owner and the destruction of their new stadium.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Like my fictional Jets, the Texans suddenly have lots of problems. Most notably, Andre Johnson is expected to be a game-time decision. Gary Kubiak called Johnson “day to day” and the dynamic wideout said that he’ll suit up.

However, even if Johnson plays, there are two issues. First, Johnson won’t be 100 percent. He was clearly hampered by his ankle injury last week, and it would probably be best if he sat out one game. Second, Nnamdi Asomugha will erase Johnson from this contest, so Matt Schaub will have to look elsewhere to move the chains.

Johnson isn’t the only problem concerning Houston’s offense. Left tackle Duane Brown is serving the second of his four-game suspension. DeMarcus Ware made last week’s game a living hell for Schaub. The Raiders will also come with tons of pressure.

If the Texans want to move the chains, they’ll have to do so on the ground. The Raiders are 24th versus the rush, surrendering 4.7 yards per carry. Arian Foster should have a big outing.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Houston’s greatest long-term issue is its secondary. In just three games, the team has allowed 1,143 passing yards. Granted, Bruce Gradkowski isn’t anywhere near as talented as Tony Romo or Donovan McNabb, but he’s a solid, feisty signal-caller who threw for 255 yards at Arizona. The Polish Point-Shaver should have a decent performance, and is worth starting in fantasy leagues this week in desperate bye-week situations.

Darren McFadden has looked great this year. It’s amazing how he’s turned his career after two lost seasons. But the run defenses he faced in the first three weeks are ranked 18th, 28th and 23rd. The Texans are a stingy sixth.

I still like McFadden to have a decent outing as an option out of the backfield for Gradkowski, but it’s clear that for the first time all year, Oakland won’t be able to run the ball effectively. Still, I like the Raiders to put some points on the board with the Polish Point-Shaver under center.

RECAP: If you’re one of the many bettors taking Houston, consider that in their franchise history, the Texans are just 1-4 against the spread as road favorites. And also remember that Andre Johnson won’t be 100 percent (if he even plays) and Matt Schaub won’t have good pass protection.

I wouldn’t bet the Texans, but I don’t like the Raiders much here either (though I do believe they are the right side). I was hoping Oakland would be a dog of anywhere between four and six, but we’re just not getting any sort of value with this ridiculously low point spread, which is obviously compensating for Johnson’s injury.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

All the Texans have to do is win by four! Easy money!

Percentage of money on Houston: 87% (126,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Texans are 1-4 ATS as road favorites in franchise history.

Raiders are 9-20 ATS in October since 2001.

Raiders are 14-33 ATS at home the previous 47 instances.

Opening Line: Texans -2.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Texans 17, Raiders 16
Raiders +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 31, Raiders 24

Arizona Cardinals (2-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Line: Chargers by 9.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Chargers -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Chargers -7.5.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “any ov u guys no were i can watch the games online just am in the united kingdom and it ent being telivised 🙁 ????? GO PACKERS!!”

Damn it, I really suck at understanding British accents. Can anyone decipher this for me?

2. “drew brees mind is else wear and as fo other weapons in philly vick makes desean look good mccoy is sloppy we got a good run stop we put mathews out mccoy is another victom for durant best beleive”

This man is a specialist at putting random, misspelled words together to form incoherent sentences. There’s no one better.

3. “at 17 years old , I think my wealth of exp in these sorts of matters far outweighs any amount of exp you have gotten …..in fact I was drunk for 10 years of my life ( not that I am proud of it ) but its a fact”

So you were drunk between the ages of 7 and 17? No wonder GameCenter posters can’t form coherent sentences or spell anything correctly.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers keep screwing themselves over with senseless penalties and blunders on special teams. But as long as Philip Rivers is healthy, San Diego will get its act together, just like it always does.

Rivers can start here against a Cardinals defense that has had major problems containing the pass the previous two weeks. Bruce Gradkowski totaled 255 yards off 34 throwing attempts, so Rivers should be able to dominate this contest.

While Arizona’s secondary isn’t very good, the team’s greatest defensive weakness is against the run. We all saw what Jason Snelling did to this stop unit two weeks ago. Darren McFadden followed that up with a solid performance of his own.

Ryan Mathews worked out on Monday and said that he was pain-free. It appears as though he may finally get to play an entire game. If so, he should easily go over the century mark.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals are winning in spite of Derek Anderson. Anderson was just 12-of-26 for 122 yards against the Raiders. His passes, like always, were all over the place, and you could just see how frustrated Larry Fitzgerald was.

As if Anderson’s bad play wasn’t enough, Arizona won’t have Steve Breaston for a few weeks because of meniscus surgery. With Breaston and Early Doucet both out, San Diego’s secondary can focus on shutting down Fitzgerald and severely limiting a drunken Anderson’s options.

The Cardinals will have to run the ball efficiently to score some points. Unfortunately for them, the Chargers rank ninth versus the run, giving up just 3.7 yards per carry.

RECAP: Say what you want about Norv Turner, but he tends to rebound well after losing as a favorite (7-3 against the spread). The Cardinals stink, and a focused Chargers squad should be able to win this game rather easily.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

A no-brainer for most. The Cardinals are playing like crap.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 88% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Cardinals are 6-3 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Norv Turner is 7-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Chargers -9.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Cardinals 10
Chargers -9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 41, Cardinals 10

Washington Redskins (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Eagles -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Eagles -4.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter. These are all from the same user:

1. “i kind of aggre wit u but i always have faith in d lower team nd jets is d team every 1 wnt 2 lose so i will go 4 d jets”

n i always have faith u wil keep rdn on d 4 grade lvl

2. “let go jets beat d patriot”

Don’t ever let go, Jets. Don’t ever let go.

3. “who said they going 2 beat d bangles accept 4 d panthers”

Quick question: If no one accept 4 d panthers said they were going 2 beat d bangles and if d panthers didn’t beat d bangles and d bangles instead beat d panthers, do d bangles really beat d panthers, or is d bangles beating d panthers only in d imagination?

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Think Donovan McNabb’s had this game circled when the schedule was released? Everyone is making a big deal about Washington’s loss to St. Louis last week. If you were seven days away from a battling a team that thoughtlessly discarded you, you wouldn’t exactly be focused against some crap squad that hasn’t won in a while either.

McNabb is familiar with all of Philadelphia’s defenders. He knows Sean McDermott’s schemes. He’s practiced against this defense for a decade. And guess what? The Eagles defense isn’t very good. I think McNabb will have a big game in an effort to prove everyone wrong.

Washington should be able to run the ball as well. The Eagles are just 20th against the run. Clinton Portis stinks, but in last week’s loss, Ryan Torain showed that he can be effective. Mike Shanahan should give Torain more work in this contest.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: QB Dog Killer has become a living legend in Philadelphia. The people who still support the Eagles – there are quite a few former fans who have admirably adopted a new team – have fallen in love with the demented psychopath after watching him shred Detroit and Jacksonville’s terrific secondaries. The Lions and Jaguars defenses were deemed impenetrable before the Eagles played them, yet QB Dog Killer sliced through them quite effortlessly.

I’m being facetious, of course. The Lions and Jaguars are 30th and 32nd against the pass, respectively. We saw Kevin Kolb destroy an equally bad Chiefs squad last season, so QB Dog Killer’s domination over Detroit and Jacksonville is quite meaningless in the grand scheme of things. I mean, it’s not like we haven’t seen QB Dog Killer abuse crappy defenses before; for instance, in 2002, he threw for 240 and 337 yards in back-to-back victories over the sorry Seahawks and Lions, and followed that up with a 17-of-40 outing at Cleveland. His career completion percentage is 53 for a reason.

The problem for the Redskins, however, is that their defense is really struggling right now. They’re 22nd against the pass, and they couldn’t stop Steven Jackson and Kenneth Darby last week. QB Dog Killer could have another great performance, further perpetrating the myth that he has become an elite quarterback or an even an MVP candidate (the latter according to the suddenly insufferable Michael Wilbon.)

RECAP: The inexcusable and shameful love for QB Dog Killer has sent this line out of control. People want to bet on Philadelphia’s scumbag quarterback after watching him abuse two of the three worst pass defenses in the NFL, which has sent the spread up to -6.5.

The problem here is that the Eagles and Redskins are pretty equal. I have them 15th and 16th respectively in my 2010 NFL Power Rankings. This line should be -3; maybe -4 at the most. We’re getting lots of value with Washington.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Tough to say. The Eagles locker room hated Donovan McNabb, so they’ll want to crush his new team. Then again, the Redskins will be playing hard for their new leader to help him get revenge.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Surprisingly equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 60% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Eagles have won the last 2 meetings.

Redskins are 9-6 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2007.

Donovan McNabb is 24-14 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 39-26 ATS on the road since 2001.

Eagles are 64-42 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 29-20 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 55 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Redskins 30, Eagles 27
Redskins +6 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 17, Eagles 12

Chicago Bears (3-0) at New York Giants (1-2)
Line: Giants by 3.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Giants -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Giants -1.
Sunday, Oct. 3, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Bears.

If you’ve been following my 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be posted by Wednesday evening.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: As I wrote in my 2010 NFL Power Rankings, “The Bears are fun to watch because I feel like there’s a very good chance that anything can happen on any play. Whether that’s a touchdown, a pick-six, a fumble, a sack, a long scramble for a first down, a dropped interception, a ‘whoops, I got my quarterback destroyed’ look on Mike Martz’s face, etc. Chicago fans might as well spin a wheel on every snap to see what’ll happen.”

I wasn’t joking about this. Anything can happen when Chicago has the ball in this game, and nothing would shock me.

With that in mind, the Bears need to establish Matt Forte more than they did on Monday night to take some pressure off Jay Cutler. The Giants are pretty solid versus the run (13th), so this should happen more so with short passes to Forte coming out of the backfield.

New York is 19th versus aerial attacks, and has just two sacks since the opener. This is great news for Cutler, who needs all the pass protection he can get after getting knocked around on Monday night.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants moved the ball up and down the field on the Titans last week, but critical mistakes (two red zone turnovers, lots of penalties) really cost them.

Unfortunately for New York, remaining error-free won’t translate to a similar performance in between the 20s on Sunday night. The Bears boast a fierce defense ranked first against the run and 12th versus the pass.

Ahmad Bradshaw will struggle to get anything going on the ground, which will put Eli Manning into unfavorable third-and-long situations. That won’t be good because the Giants have had pass protection issues this season. And we just saw what a motivated Julius Peppers is capable of.

RECAP: This will be my third and final zero-unit game of the week. Out of the three, this is actually my least favorite.

Quite honestly, I don’t know what to make of this contest. But I’m leaning Bears for two reasons:

1. This spread makes no sense. How are the Giants favored by four? New York is not better than Chicago. And if you think this is a gift from Vegas, remember that the sportsbooks have really come away with a big profit thus far this season. They’re going to have to give back to the public sometime soon.

2. Dating back to last year, the Giants are just 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games. They’re constantly being overvalued by the public, and this skewed line could be a byproduct of that dynamic.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
I’d say the Bears would be in an emotional letdown after beating the Packers, but they’re the underdogs in this matchup.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

What!? How are the Giants -4 based on what happened last week? This line is begging for the public to take New York.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 67% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 16-11 ATS after a loss since 2005.

Opening Line: Giants -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Showers, 50 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Bears 22, Giants 20
Bears +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 17, Bears 3 MISSING

New England Patriots (2-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-1)
Line: Patriots by 1. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Patriots -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Patriots -1.
Monday, Oct. 4, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

It’s Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Miami, the hottest place in the world! Man, am I sweating my balls off right now! Tonight, we have the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins. Guys, I don’t know about you, but I just love Tom Brady’s hair. It’s very sexy. If I had hair like that, I would have a lot of girlfriends. How many girlfriends do you think I would have, guys? Ten? Twenty? Fifty?

Emmitt: Karl, you countin’ your egg before they hatches. Before you can have a lot of girlfriend, you need to concentrate on findin’ one girlfriends.

Reilly: Emmitt, I must disagree. What I need to do is kidnap Tom Brady, cut off his hair and glue it onto my head. I’ll have lots of girlfriends in no time!

Griese: There are 32 starting quarterbacks in the National Football League, and only one is named Tom Brady!

Reilly: What the hell does that mean?

Herm: What does that mean? I don’t know what it means! I have no idea! I have no clue! Don’t know! Don’t care! Don’t want to know!

Reilly: Herm, for once, I agree with you.

Emmitt: He obviously mean that there are 32 quarterback in the national conference of leagues, and Tom Brady one out of 32. It is simple if you mathematize it.

Reilly: All of this math doesn’t help me steal Tom Brady’s hair, Emmitt. Tom’s hair reminds me of Justin Bieber’s hair. Justin Bieber coincidentally is my favorite musician right now. What a talented young man. When he signs Somebody to Love, it hits me right on the spot.

Herm: Don’t ask! Don’t tell! Don’t want to ask! Don’t want to tell! Don’t want to know! Don’t want to hear! Don’t hear! Don’t know! Don’t listen! Don’t ask! Don’t tell!

Griese: I think Herm is implying you’re gay, Kevin!

Reilly: Shut up! All of you! I’m not gay!!! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Plain and simple, the Patriots shouldn’t have problems scoring. The Dolphins are eighth versus the pass, but that figure is skewed because of Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1 and a Percy Harvin-less Brett Favre in Week 2. Mark Sanchez sliced and diced Miami’s secondary on Sunday night. Tom Brady shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains all evening.

I will say this though – I don’t think Randy Moss is nearly the same guy we saw dominate back in 2007. He has just nine receptions in three games. Yes, he caught two touchdowns last week to make his fantasy owners happy (including my opponent in my touchdown league – ARGH), but those were his only two catches.

Credit Brady though for moving away from Moss and concentrating more on feeding his new targets. This includes rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez, who has already established himself as a dynamic threat. The Dolphins had major problems stopping Dustin Keller last week, and will have similar issues with Hernandez.

MIAMI OFFENSE: New England’s defense is terrible. The Patriots are getting run over (26th) and torched through the air (23th). Ryan Fitzpatrick made Bills fans forget about Jim Kelly last week. OK, maybe not.

Like New England, Miami won’t have any trouble scoring. Ronnie Brown will finally be able to put together a dominant performance, setting up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Chad Henne.

Henne had a great game last week, going 26-of-44 for 363 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Darrelle Revis was out of the lineup and that helped, but it’s not like the Patriots have anyone to contain Henne, Brandon Marshall and the rest of the Dolphin receivers.

RECAP: Most of the public is betting New England, thinking that the Patriots are a lock since all Brady has to do is win.

I feel this is a mistake. Miami is Brady’s house of horrors. Brady is just 3-5 against the spread at the Dolphins. Let’s dissect those three spread victories:

1. 2003: Patriots 19, Dolphins 13. Miami dominated this contest, but botched two field goals off the dirt (one at the end of regulation, one in overtime). Brady hit Troy Brown on an 82-yard game-winning touchdown on the next play after the missed kick by Olindo Mare. This was a special New England team that went on to win the Super Bowl and didn’t even lose until Halloween 2004.

2. 2005: Patriots 23, Dolphins 16. This Miami team lost at Cleveland the following week, 22-0. They were 3-7 after 11 weeks.

3. 2007: Patriots 49, Dolphins 28. The Patriots were undefeated this season. The Dolphins went 1-15.

So, the only times New England has covered at Miami is when the Dolphins were terrible and/or the Patriots were special. This Dolphins squad obviously doesn’t stink, and this version of the Patriots clearly isn’t special.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Big lean on the Patriots early on.

Percentage of money on New England: 72% (163,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Patriots have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Patriots are 29-19 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 110-37 as a starter (85-59 ATS).

Tom Brady is 3-5 ATS at Miami.

Dolphins are 10-3 ATS vs. AFC East since 2008.

Opening Line: Patriots -1.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 81 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Dolphins 31, Patriots 28
Dolphins +1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 41, Dolphins 14

Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games
49ers at Falcons, Jets at Bills, Bengals at Browns, Lions at Packers, Broncos at Titans, Seahawks at Rams, Panthers at Saints, Ravens at Steelers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Live Dog: 49ers +240 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Redskins +200 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$200

Live Dog: Bears +165 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Small Parlay: 49ers +7, Lions +14.5, Titans -6.5, Panthers +13.5, Redskins +6.5, Dolphins +1.5 (.5 Units to win 23.2) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)